Thursday, March 26, 2015
Written by JohnPudner at 2:06 AM
Sunday, March 22, 2015
The season has been a grind to say the least, but the first in the Wojo era is now over and we need to talk about. We spend a little time talking about the Big East tournament, but not too much because there wasn't a lot new there. We then talk relatively surprising news, the transfer of Steve Taylor Jr to parts unknown. Since the season is over we have to talk about how this news impacts next year's team and vent a little disappointment. Speaking of disappointment, we talk about the Big East performance in March Madness. We try to put it in perspective for Marquette short and long term and why we should all be Musketeer fans. Lastly, we close out with a few odds and ends like Marquette in Italy this summer. Cleanse yourself of the season and give a listen while we are hopefully celebrating a Badger loss. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 8:03 PM
DePaul University mathematics professor Jeff Bergen figured out the odds for a perfect NCAA bracket. A mind boggling 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1. That's 9 quintillion, basically a digit with 18 zeros after it. After only 3 games on Thursday, CBS had only 0.27% of their brackets from users remained perfect. ESPN was down .4%. By night's end on Friday night, only one person in the U.S. out of 11 million brackets still had a perfect bracket. That was undone when Ohio State lost in the second game on Saturday.
If you wish to watch Dr. Bergen explain how the odds are calculated, please check out this video.
There's nothing like the madness of the NCAA tournament and the crapshoot that it is. Or is it? Well, that depends. We had the pleasure of chatting with Dr. Bergen on Monday morning about the NCAA tournament and pose the question if the tournament is a crapshoot or not.
To no one's surprise...it depends. What is the definition of a crapshoot? Is it used in context to compare other sports playoff scenarios or literally in terms of equal odds for everyone to win?
So I asked him...
"It depends upon what you mean by "crapshoot". There is no team that has a better than 50% of winning (although Kentucky might be pretty close). For an analogy, think about golf about 15 years ago. In a major tournament, no player had a better than 50% chance of winning. But Tiger Woods had a much, much better chance of winning than anyone else. "
"When we (fans) say crapshoot we probably mean that there is no clear favorite and many teams have chance to win. But it is far, far, far from the case that all teams have an equal shot. It depends how you define it, there is nothing wrong with either definition."
I agreed with him. Certainly a 16 seed, 15 seed, 14 seed are likely to never win the tournament. By the very nature of the seedings, better seeded teams are supposed to do better unless the committee completely screwed up the seeds. It is not a random tournament where a 1 could play a 1 in the first round, it is designed to have the top 4 seeds make the Final Four. Which begs the question why it doesn't happen very often. As a follow-up question I asked does the one-and-done format lower the odds of the favorites and give more teams a chance to win then say the NBA or other sports playoff formats, sometimes resulting in the best teams not winning the NCAA tournament. After all, even in years where a #1 wins the tournament, three #1's do not. There are those years when none of the four #1s even make the Final Four and only one time have all four #1's made the Final Four as their seeding suggested they should.
Written by muwarrior92 at 11:38 AM
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Marquette got that win they needed to feel less bad about themselves and against DePaul no less, so we talked about the DePaul game. We also spend some time discussing Steve Taylor and whether his last two games are indicative of his senior year or a match-up thing. From there, we move to the up coming conference tournament in NYC and Marquette's chance to win at least one game and what it would take to beat Villanova approximately 6 hours after beating Seton Hall. We close out the podcast with some house cleaning topics: Congratulating Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino on their All Big East awards. Talking about Traci Carter at least partially fill the gap hole at point guard for next years team and whether he will become the newest player to commit to Marquette basketball. Wishing Wesley Matthews a speedy recovery from what was a very unfortunate achilles injury. Regular season has come to a merciful close, but enjoy conference tournament time....we won't see Marquette play again until November. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 8:18 AM
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
Building for the future, Duane Wilson's 16 of 29 tear from beyond the arc the last four games has moved him up to third place among Big East freshmen at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The jump from Freshman to sophomore season is typically the most dramatic, with players improving about 156% on average, so Wilson is on pace to be something special. Sandy Cohen's contributions as the 14th best freshman put him on pace to project as a strong starter his sophomore season.
Sophomores also make a nice jump typically, so Luke Fischer and JJJ look to be solid players the next two years - coming in as the 10th and 11th most valuable sophomores in the conference this season.
Add that together with a Top 10 recruiting class Welcome Sacar Anim to the group of Henry Ellenson, Haanif Cheatham and Matt Heldt and if Wojo can hold them all together this could be an awesome team by 2016-17, and a solid team next year with Steve Taylor as the senior leader.
At least that's how the analytics look (see my photo with guru Nate Silver at the annual convention this year) - hopefully the guys pull an upset tonight and beat DePaul to head into the tournament with a chance to build momentum for next year.
|1||248||Delgado, Angel 31||Seton Hall||4.36|
|2||286||Bluiett, Trevon 5||Xavier||4.13|
|3||519||Wilson, Duane 1||Marquette||3.05|
|4||537||Booth, Phil 5||Villanova||2.99|
|5||639||Rodriguez, Desi 20||Seton Hall||2.64|
|6||794||Copeland, Isaac 11||Georgetown||2.28|
|7||812||Carrington, Khadeen 0||Seton Hall||2.25|
|8||846||Whitehead, Isaiah 15||Seton Hall||2.18|
|9||921||White, Paul 13||Georgetown||2.04|
|10||978||Hegner, Toby 32||Creighton||1.94|
|11||1178||Macura, J.P. 55||Xavier||1.6|
|12||1289||Peak, L.J. 0||Georgetown||1.46|
|13||1334||Campbell, Tre 1||Georgetown||1.39|
|14||1411||Cohen, Sandy 5||Marquette||1.31|
|15||1547||Chukwu, Paschal 13||Providence||1.18|
|1||33||Dunn, Kris 3||Providence||7.3|
|2||147||Hart, Josh 3||Villanova||5.36|
|3||260||Reynolds, Jalen 1||Xavier||4.3|
|4||296||Davis, Myles 15||Xavier||4.06|
|5||341||Jenkins, Kris 2||Villanova||3.75|
|6||349||Garrett, Billy 5||DePaul||3.73|
|7||453||Jordan, Rysheed 23||St. John's||3.32|
|8||588||Chrabascz, Andrew 45||Butler||2.82|
|9||641||Zierden, Isaiah 21||Creighton||2.64|
|10||686||Fischer, Luke 40||Marquette||2.52|
|11||908||Johnson, JaJuan 23||Marquette||2.05|
|12||1052||Hamilton, Tommy 2||DePaul||1.82|
|13||1652||Randolph, Brandon 3||Xavier||1.1|
|14||1994||Bennett, Steven 25||Butler||0.84|
|15||2003||Sina, Jaren 30||Seton Hall||0.84|
Written by JohnPudner at 6:59 PM
Sunday, March 01, 2015
Ah, another couple of games and another couple of performances that were primarily frustrating but with flashes of potential. We taped this pod immediately following the latest double digit loss, at Providence. We talk about the game and discuss whether all the things that are going on are player, coaching, or bad luck related. We spend time discussing Duane Wilson's performance and why we are looking forward to seeing him play for the next couple of years. We also move from the current year to next year with some of the pieces in place now and pieces that will be in place next season and what that all looks like. We then shift to the more immediate future and discuss the three seniors on this team, Matt Carlino, Derrick Wilson, and Juan Anderson. Spoiler alert, if you like to hate on a couple of the players you won't like this portion of the pod. To finish off the pod, we talk about some recruiting news and where that's going as well as talk next years exception tournament, the Legends Classic. Two weeks to go in the season, you can make, just hang with us a little longer. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 7:57 PM