Just a week ago, we podded about how we were really disappointed in the team's performance to date and were hoping the Iowa result was rock bottom. A week later and we think that may have been rock bottom as Marquette went retro 1950s basketball and came away with two critical wins in New York City and a solid buy win at home. As opposed to walking through each of the wins, we decided to revisit the areas of concern from last weeks podcast and assess if there was improvement or not. We started with the 3 point shooting situation and whether Wojo has shown coaching chops. We transition into how the defense has performed and what the point guard play looks like now and going forward. We also talk about the rest of the non-conference season and what we should be looking to get out of it. Lastly, we talk about the Big East overall performance and how the impacts (hint: it helps) Marquette going forward. Overall much better circumstances then a week ago to pod about. Download this episode (right click and save)
Monday, November 30, 2015
It is amazing how much has changed in college basketball since I introduced Value Add basketball in May 2011. Kris Dunn's was really hoping Marquette would sign him, nine other teams were in the Big East, and teams were scoring under 67 points a game (this year 72 a game).
|Rnk||BE Players through Sun||Team||Ht||Yr||Off||Def||Pos||VA||NBA?|
|1||Dunn, Kris 3||Providence||6'4"||Jr||4.75||-6.32||12.70||84%|
|2||Ochefu, Daniel 23||Villanova||6'11"||Sr||3.82||-3.81||0.3||9.85||7%|
|3||Arcidiacono, Ryan 15||Villanova||6'3"||Sr||4.34||-3.05||9.64||6%|
|4||Hart, Josh 3||Villanova||6'5"||Jr||3.26||-4.19||9.04||17%|
|5||Copeland, Isaac 11||Georgetown||6'9"||So||4.43||-1.60||8.92||13%|
|6||Rodriguez, Desi 20||Seton Hall||6'6"||So||3.99||-2.18||8.86||1%|
|7||Farr, James 2||Xavier||6'10"||Sr||2.92||-2.17||0.3||7.96|
|8||Bullock, Rodney 5||Providence||6'8"||So||3.68||-2.34||-0.3||6.98|
|9||Groselle, Geoffrey 41||Creighton||7'0||Sr||3.75||-1.87||0.3||6.92|
|10||Reynolds, Jalen 1||Xavier||6'10"||Jr||2.11||-2.13||0.3||6.61||16%|
|11||Macura, JP 55||Xavier||6'5"||So||4.15||0.85||6.59|
|12||Chrabascz, Andrew 45||Butler||6'7"||Jr||4.80||-2.07||-0.3||6.27|
|13||Peak, LJ 0||Georgetown||6'5"||So||2.49||-1.78||0.2||6.16||2%|
|14||Fischer, Luke 40||Marquette||6'11"||Jr||3.65||-1.20||0.3||6.12|
|15||Mvouika, Ron 24||St. John's||6'6"||Sr||2.13||-0.99||6.05|
|16||Dunham, Kellen 24||Butler||6'6"||Sr||6.14||-0.09||5.80||5%|
|17||Wideman, Tyler 4||Butler||6'8"||So||4.73||-1.50||-0.3||5.63|
|18||Brunson, Jalen 1||Villanova||6'2"||Fr||2.83||-1.41||5.59||30%|
|19||Zierden, Isaiah 21||Creighton||6'3"||Jr||3.81||-0.54||0.2||5.57|
|20||Bluiett, Trevon 5||Xavier||6'6"||So||2.68||-0.75||-0.3||5.54||17%|
|21||Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4||Georgetown||6'3"||Sr||2.11||-1.80||5.36||10%|
|22||Davis, Myles 15||Xavier||6'2"||Jr||2.81||0.15||5.16|
|23||Sanogo, Ismael 14||Seton Hall||6'8"||So||1.29||-3.29||-0.3||5.14|
|24||Jones, Roosevelt 21||Butler||6'4"||Sr||3.17||-1.91||0.2||5.12|
|25||Cameron, Reggie 5||Georgetown||6'7"||Jr||3.07||-0.28||-0.3||5.09||1%|
|26||Jenkins, Kris 2||Villanova||6'6"||Jr||2.06||-2.11||5.05|
|27||Lewis, Tyler 1||Butler||5'11"||Jr||4.48||-0.78||4.98|
|28||Garrett, Billy 5||DePaul||6'6"||Jr||3.76||0.23||0.2||4.93|
|29||Bentil, Ben 0||Providence||6'9"||So||1.97||-2.17||4.81|
|30||Govan, Jessie 15||Georgetown||6'10"||Fr||1.68||-1.27||0.3||4.42|
|31||Sima, Yankuba 35||St. John's||6'11"||Fr||1.29||-2.82||0.3||4.34|
|32||Henry, Myke 4||DePaul||6'6"||Sr||2.44||-1.09||4.32|
|33||Fazekas, Ryan 35||Providence||6'8"||Fr||2.72||-0.31||0.3||4.25|
|34||Huff, Cole 13||Creighton||6'8"||Jr||2.00||-0.98||-0.3||3.29|
|35||Simpson, Aaron 15||DePaul||5'11"||Sr||2.47||0.04||3.22|
|36||Nzei, Michael 1||Seton Hall||6'7"||So||1.55||-0.17||0.3||3.06|
|37||Milliken, James 23||Creighton||6'3"||Sr||2.33||0.26||0.2||2.96|
|38||Bridges, Mikal 25||Villanova||6'7"||Fr||0.49||-2.84||-0.3||2.95|
|39||Derrickson, Marcus 24||Georgetown||6'7"||Fr||1.20||-0.87||2.95|
|40||Booth, Phil 5||Villanova||6'3"||So||0.66||-1.85||0.2||2.73|
|41||Davis, Jackson 13||Butler||6'8"||So||1.63||-0.71||0.3||2.64|
|42||Lomomba, Junior 32||Providence||6'5"||Jr||2.44||0.87||0.2||2.60|
|43||Carrington, Khadeen 0||Seton Hall||6'3"||So||1.55||0.19||0.2||2.59||1%|
|44||Ellenson, Henry 13||Marquette||6'10"||Fr||0.43||-2.17||-0.3||2.42||91%|
|45||Thomas, Khyri 2||Creighton||6'3"||Fr||1.45||-0.47||2.41|
|46||Hayes, Bradley 42||Georgetown||7'0||Sr||0.17||-1.68||0.3||2.41|
|47||Sumner, Edmond 4||Xavier||6'6"||Fr||1.11||0.39||0.2||2.40|
|48||Delgado, Angel 31||Seton Hall||6'9"||So||0.00||-2.09||0.3||2.38||8%|
|49||Johnson, Kaleb 32||Georgetown||6'6"||Fr||1.04||-0.26||0.2||2.29|
|50||Wood, Darrick 1||DePaul||6'5"||Jr||1.07||-0.79||2.20|
|51||Watson, Maurice 10||Creighton||5'10"||Jr||2.26||0.78||2.15|
|52||Whitehead, Isaiah 15||Seton Hall||6'4"||So||0.91||-0.51||2.03||18%|
|53||Cohen, Sandy 5||Marquette||6'6"||So||0.25||-1.67||1.99|
|54||Reynolds, Darryl 45||Villanova||6'8"||Jr||0.37||-2.06||-0.3||1.99|
|55||Hegner, Toby 32||Creighton||6'10"||So||0.80||-0.54||0.3||1.97|
|56||Cheatham, Haanif 25||Marquette||6'5"||Fr||0.78||-0.98||1.96|
|57||Gordon, Derrick 32||Seton Hall||6'3"||Sr||0.63||-0.87||1.91|
|58||O'Mara, Sean 54||Xavier||6'10"||So||0.16||-0.45||0.3||1.83|
|59||Abell, Remy 10||Xavier||6'4"||Sr||0.95||0.56||1.78|
|60||Hanson, Zach 40||Creighton||6'9"||Jr||1.18||-0.42||-0.3||1.73|
|61||Wilson, Duane 1||Marquette||6'2"||So||0.00||-1.50||0.2||1.70||5%|
|62||London, Makinde 13||Xavier||6'10"||So||0.00||-0.55||0.3||1.67|
|63||Lindsey, Jalen 21||Providence||6'7"||So||0.96||0.03||0.3||1.54|
|64||Mussini, Federico 4||St. John's||6'1"||Fr||0.00||-1.53||1.46|
|65||Krampelj, Martin 15||Creighton||6'9"||Fr||0.36||-0.82||1.42|
|66||Hamilton, Tommy 2||DePaul||6'11"||Jr||0.02||-1.07||0.3||1.40|
|67||Martin, Kelan 30||Butler||6'6"||So||0.72||-0.59||1.39|
|68||Johnson, Durand 5||St. John's||6'6"||Sr||0.00||-1.15||0.2||1.28|
|69||Carter, Traci 21||Marquette||6'0||Fr||0.00||-1.25||1.25|
|70||Johnson, JaJuan 23||Marquette||6'5"||Jr||0.00||-1.04||0.2||1.24||2%|
|71||Etherington, Austin 0||Butler||6'6"||Sr||0.20||-0.87||1.19|
|72||Gathers, Jordan 5||Butler||6'3"||Sr||0.61||-0.29||0.2||1.18|
|73||Pettus, Trey 10||Butler||6'4"||Jr||0.90||0.09||0.2||1.07|
|74||Gates, Kaiser 22||Xavier||6'8"||Fr||0.18||-0.22||-0.3||1.02|
|75||Harrell, Ronnie 4||Creighton||6'7"||Fr||0.69||-0.18||-0.3||0.88|
|76||Clement, Tyler 11||Creighton||6'1"||So||0.03||-0.45||0.2||0.84|
|77||Balamou, Felix 10||St. John's||6'4"||Sr||0.17||-0.52||0.2||0.81|
|78||Jones, Christian 2||St. John's||6'7"||Jr||0.00||-1.17||-0.3||0.80|
|79||Campbell, Tre 1||Georgetown||6'2"||So||0.00||-0.63||0.77|
|80||Singh, Veer 33||Seton Hall||6'7"||Fr||0.40||0.21||0.3||0.75|
|81||Fowler, Nate 51||Butler||6'10"||Fr||0.24||-0.07||0.3||0.74|
|82||Bennett, Steven 25||Butler||6'2"||Jr||0.55||0.07||0.58|
|83||Anim, Sacar 2||Marquette||6'5"||Fr||0.30||-0.18||0.57|
|84||DiVincenzo, Donte 10||Villanova||6'5"||Fr||0.00||-1.23||-0.3||0.56|
|85||Ellenson, Wally 22||Marquette||6'6"||Jr||0.00||-0.52||0.53|
|86||Cain, Eli 11||DePaul||6'6"||Fr||0.00||-0.47||0.47|
|87||Ryckbosch, Peter 30||DePaul||6'10"||Sr||0.00||-0.15||0.3||0.45|
|88||Smith, Quadree 10||Providence||6'8"||Fr||0.00||-0.02||0.3||0.30|
|89||Barry, Oumar 25||DePaul||6'10"||Fr||0.00||0.02||0.3||0.28|
|90||Anthony, Rashed 25||Seton Hall||6'9"||So||0.00||0.01||0.3||0.28|
|91||Ellison, Malik 0||St. John's||6'6"||Fr||0.00||-0.14||0.2||0.26|
|92||Carter, Myles 23||Seton Hall||6'9"||Fr||0.00||0.06||0.3||0.22|
|93||Holifield, Elijah 12||St. John's||6'2"||Fr||0.00||-0.25||0.18|
|94||Stimage, Rashaun 3||DePaul||6'8"||Sr||0.00||-0.46||-0.3||0.16|
|95||Council, Ricky 22||Providence||6'5"||Fr||0.00||-0.18||0.16|
|96||Heldt, Matt 12||Marquette||6'10"||Fr||0.00||0.14||0.3||0.16|
|97||Edwards, Drew 25||Providence||6'3"||Fr||0.03||0.07||0.2||0.15|
|98||Molinari, David 10||DePaul||6'0||Sr||0.00||-0.08||0.08|
|99||Anderson, Braeden 4||Seton Hall||6'9"||Jr||0.00||-0.39||-0.3||0.07|
|100||White, Paul 13||Georgetown||6'8"||So||0.00||-0.19||-0.3||0.04|
Written by JohnPudner at 1:57 AM
Saturday, November 28, 2015
What a week for the Big East. The week started with Georgetown falling just short of an upset of Duke, 86-84, but the Hoyas still moved up from 38th to 30th at www.kenpom.com.
That started a week in which the Big East went 4-4 in games in which the Big East team was ranked behind their opponent at www.kenpom.com (Providence over Arizona, Marquette's two wins and Seton Hall over Georgia, though in that last game the home court gave Seton Hall a slight edge).
The conference went 4-0 against the Pac-12 and 4-1 against the SEC.
Two of the losses were in a 20-4 week were by lowly St. John's against ranked teams, and DePaul was weak.
Of the top 8 teams in the conference only Butler slid (from 25th to 35th after losing to #16 Miami).
Villanova's actual rating improved to keep them in 2nd place, and the others move up. The week is important because once conference play starts Marquette's opponents must be ranked highly enough to let MU potentially get enough quality wins to earn a bid to the tournament.
The bad news is these teams are looking tougher to beat than it appeared a couple of weeks ago - the good news is there will be enough chances for quality wins that MU could earn a bid.
|Big East||Starting Rnk||Current Rnk||Results and Rank of Opponent|
|Villanova||2||2||54, Akron, W, 75-56; 125, Stanford, W, 59-45 and 88, Georgia Tech, W, 69-52|
|Xavier||22||18||281, Northern Kentucky, W, 78-66; 95, Alabama, W, 64-45 and 43, USC, W, 87-77|
|Georgetown||38||30||5, Duke, L, 86-84 and 295, Bryant, W, 77-47|
|Butler||25||35||16, Miami FL, L, 85-75 and 319, SIU Edwardsville, W, 89-73|
|Providence||59||46||127, NJIT, W, 83-76; 75, Evansville, W, 74-64 and 19, Arizona, W, 69-65|
|Creighton||82||53||221, Rutgers, W, 85-75; 123, Massachusetts, W, 97-76 and 166, Western Illinois, W97-67|
|Seton Hall||91||70||79, Mississippi, W, 75-63 and 59, Georgia, W, 69-62|
|Marquette||102||99||64, LSU, W, 81-80 and 74, Arizona St., W, 78-73|
|DePaul||140||150||264, Norfolk St., W, 82-78|
|St. Johns||156||172||11, Vanderbilt, L, 92-55; 26, Indiana, L, 83-73 and NR, Chaminade, W, 100-93|
Written by JohnPudner at 10:09 PM
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Despite the big wins in New York, RPI Forecast gives MU less than a 10% chance to go 23-10, which is what it would take to get MU to an RPI of 53 and trip to the NCAA.
According to RPI Forecast and the pure Wins and Losses at www.kenpom.com, MU should finish the regular season 16-15 with an RPI of 177. The good news is this is based on results during which Henry Ellenson's Value Add has been just 0.4 due to his first three games including 12 of 35 shooting and 10 turnovers. The good news is that if Ellenson keeps building on strong play in New York and gets to his projected 7.4 Value Add for the year, that 7-point improvement would tip seven additional wins for Marquette based on www.kenpom.com projected scores to finish 23-8 before the Big East tournament and make the NCAA tournament.
So there is hope as Marquette fans go into the Thanksgiving Weekend very thankful for two exciting and huge wins in New York this week against #22 LSU and Arizona State, as the team won praise by many including Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports.
That means it would take a 23-10 record to get an NCAA bid - even one more loss to drop to 22-11 plummets Marquette to 69th in RPI based on the RPI Forecast calculator.
Traci Carter's EXCELLENT play that has put him among assists leaders at www.kenpom.com and helped Duane Wilson, Luke Fischer and Haanif Cheatham combine to hit more than 2/3rds of their two-point shots. However, he will be going up against the toughest conference for a point guard - and an 11-7 mark for a team with a freshman point guard looks tough.
However, there is hope. The good news is young teams improve more during the season than other teams, and as the 10th least experience team in the country, MU has a great ceiling. So far the team is the WORST three-point shooting team of the 77 teams in the top six conferences, and MU is the 8th worst at turning the ball over. Assuming Henry Ellenson and Duane Wilson find their three-point stroke and the young team learns to protect the ball moderately well, the team would make a huge stride forward and the 23-10 record represented above would be possible.
In addition to the Fox Sports praise, a second basketball expert (Rob Dauster of NBC Sports) recently called MU one of the most underachieving team in the opening few games and saw the combination of the twin towers and talented guards as enough to rank MU 23rd in the nation in June.
So far only Luke Fischer has played up to expectations based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. He projected to be worth about 3.56 additional points a game, through the team's terrible first three games he was almost there at 3.19, and in the two wins in New York he was right at the 3.56 projection to raise his season total to date to 3.40 - in the top 10% (top 400) of all players.
Beyond Ellenson, other huge improvements from Duane Wilson and others are possible - as well as he is harassing opponents and getting to the rim, if his three-pointer and even free throws start to drop at all the defenses will spread and give MU a shot to be truly great.
Here are the projections for each players (Replacement Level indicates most players were playing no better than a solid replacement player would have been expected to play), followed by where they ranked through the 1-2 start and where they rank now. The start was very bad, the improvement was very dramatic, and the ceiling is high enough to potentially sneak into the tournament - but the margin of error is very small.
|Fischer, Luke 40||3.56 (458th)||3.19 (438th)||3.40 (397th)|
|Cohen, Sandy 5||2.53 (796th)||1.28 (1678th)||0.58 (1678th)|
|Ellenson, Henry 13||7.40 (58th)||ReplacemLevel||0.42 (1873rd)||91%|
|Johnson, JaJuan 23||2.87 (655th)||ReplacemLevel||0.37 (1936th)||2%|
|Anim, Sacar 2||1.20 (1623rd)||ReplacemLevel||0.35 (1941st)|
|Ellenson, Wally 22||ReplacemLevel||ReplacemLevel||0.10 (2365th)|
|Wilson, Duane 1||5.27 (192nd)||ReplacemLevel||ReplacemLevel||5%|
|Heldt, Matt 12||1.00 (1973rd)||ReplacemLevel||ReplacemLevel|
|Carter, Traci 21||2.10 (1004th)||ReplacemLevel||ReplacemLevel|
|Cheatham, Haanif 25||2.35 (878th)||ReplacemLevel||ReplacemLevel|
Written by JohnPudner at 1:03 AM
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Things looked bleak until last night. Only Luke Fischer broke into the top 25 of Big East players through Sunday's www.valueaddbasketball.com calculation on Sunday. But Monday's stunning upset of #22 LSU was a major breakthrough for the third least experienced team in the country and the Big East Conference.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Villanova, Xavier, Butler and Georgetown easily in the NCAA field, but .. that is based on Georgetown's near upsets of both Duke and Maryland so the 1-3 Hoyas need wins. Butler is one of only seven team to have three players in Pomeroy's top 100 in Offensive Efficiency and Andrew Chrabascz is the most valuable player in the conference at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on being among the national leaders in shooting, offensive rebounding, steals and protecting the ball on offense.
While the ACC and Big 12 rank well ahead of everyone else, Pomeroy has the four other major conferences - the Big East, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 - in a virtual four-way tie as the third best conference. Therefore MU's upset of LSU and Seton Halls win over Mississippi were big wins looking ahead to bids vs. the SEC, and the Big East's ability to go 5-4 against the Big Ten last week also helps. A win tonight for Marquette over Arizona State could give the Big East good bragging rights against the other three if MU, Seton Hall, Providence or Creighton end up on the bubble.
Putting out a ranking based on around three games each is admittedly way to small a sample size, but nonetheless, the database at www.valueaddbasketball.com reflects all 4000 players through Sunday's games, and I also wanted to post one at the benchmark/low point from the 1-2 start to remember how far MU will have come if last night leads to a turnaround.
|BE||Natl||Player through Sunday||Team||Ht||Yr||Value||NBA?|
|1||31||Chrabascz, Andrew 45||Butler||6' 7"||Jr||8.21|
|2||33||Dunn, Kris 3||Providence||6' 4"||Jr||8.18||84%|
|3||49||Ochefu, Daniel 23||Villanova||6' 11"||Sr||7.47||7%|
|4||57||Arcidiacono, Ryan 15||Villanova||6' 3"||Sr||7.27||6%|
|5||66||Lewis, Tyler 1||Butler||5' 11"||Jr||6.86|
|6||129||Bullock, Rodney 5||Providence||6' 8"||So||5.74|
|7||149||Sima, Yankuba 35||St. John's||6' 11"||Fr||5.42|
|8||167||Hart, Josh 3||Villanova||6' 5"||Jr||5.26||17%|
|9||177||Zierden, Isaiah 21||Creighton||6' 3"||Jr||5.11|
|10||180||Rodriguez, Desi 20||Seton Hall||6' 6"||So||5.08||1%|
|11||190||Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4||Georgetown||6' 3"||Sr||5.01||10%|
|12||194||Jones, Roosevelt 21||Butler||6' 4"||Sr||4.97|
|13||203||Sanogo, Ismael 14||Seton Hall||6' 8"||So||4.9|
|14||214||Copeland, Isaac 11||Georgetown||6' 9"||So||4.79||13%|
|15||216||Wideman, Tyler 4||Butler||6' 8"||So||4.79|
|16||220||Macura, JP 55||Xavier||6' 5"||So||4.69|
|17||231||Brunson, Jalen 1||Villanova||6' 2"||Fr||4.57||30%|
|18||253||Dunham, Kellen 24||Butler||6' 6"||Sr||4.32||5%|
|19||361||Jenkins, Kris 2||Villanova||6' 6"||Jr||3.57|
|20||375||Reynolds, Jalen 1||Xavier||6' 10"||Jr||3.49||16%|
|21||376||Farr, James 2||Xavier||6' 10"||Sr||3.49|
|22||377||Govan, Jessie 15||Georgetown||6' 10"||Fr||3.49|
|23||438||Fischer, Luke 40||Marquette||6' 11"||Jr||3.19|
|24||473||Cameron, Reggie 5||Georgetown||6' 7"||Jr||3.04||1%|
|25||475||Martin, Kelan 30||Butler||6' 6"||So||3.03|
Written by JohnPudner at 4:29 PM
Monday, November 23, 2015
Well, it looks like we achieved the most depressing(hopefully) podcast of the season in quick order. Trying to find some positivity, we introduce a new podcast character, but the discussion quickly turns to Marquette basketball. We talk about the season to date but spend a lot of time on the Iowa debacle (not hyperbole). We go through a laundry list of issues that include 3pt shooting, coaching strategy, experience (or lack thereof), post offense, and where we go from here. We also talk about whether any of this reflects on Marquette's future and an excellent column by Paint Touches. Lastly we preview the Legend's Classic in New York and what we expect to see out of this team, with an emphasis on fervent hope that we don't get boat raced by LSU. I'd say enjoy the podcast, but it's not that kind of podcast. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 12:17 PM
Sunday, November 15, 2015
First podcast of the new regular season, like the game against Belmont has it's high and low points. If you've ever been in a performance review at work, we're going to treat the Belmont game that way....the compliment sandwich. We talk about a few good things, then focus on the bad, and talk about a few more good things. We finish up with a brief discussion of recruiting and how we see the next week of games going. Enjoy. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 8:16 PM
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Yes, it is a point guard dominated conference including the preseason Breitbart Sports National Player of the Year Kris Dunn (pictured going up against Jajuan Johnson). However, when combining the preseason top 50/100 ratings of ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, the Big Lead, Fox Sports and www.valueaddbasketball.com, Marquette's Henry Ellenson is the one big true big man on Breitbart Sports All-Big East team. Click here for story below.
Written by JohnPudner at 12:18 PM
Monday, November 09, 2015
When Traci Carter picked Marquette over Xavier and UConn I was thrilled - but also scared of him being thrown in the gauntlet against Big East Point Guards. Not only is Kris Dunn National Player of the Year in my calculation of experts posted today (click here), but Marquette's starting point guard will play 12 games against a point guard ranked in the top 300 at www.valueaddbasketball.com - more than any other conference (see table below).
By the way, my first flight up will be for the Iowa game - and I am having a get-together in Mader's private room from 5-7 p.m. before the game for the www.takeback.org non-profit that I run, but please call 334.329.7258 and leave your name if you are going to stop by so we can order appropriate food.
One thing I noted in the All-American piece was that the seniors making the list averaged rating outside of the top 1000 as freshman - so Traci was higher than all of them.
The only other conference with six point guards in the top 300 is the ACC, and that is six out of 15 teams. An ACC point guard would therefore go up against no more than 10 point guards in the top 300 in a season even if all four of their home-and-home games were against these elite point guards. After the ACC and Big East, no conference has more than four point guards in the top 300.
|Rnk||Big East Point Guards||Team||Ht||Yr||Value Add||NBA|
|5||Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4||Georgetown||6'3||4 Sr||9.68||10%|
|6||Dunn, Kris 3||Providence||6'3||3 Jr||9.60||84%|
|75||Jones, Roosevelt 21||Butler||6'4||4 Sr||6.97||0%|
|133||Arcidiacono, Ryan 15||Villanova||6'3||4 Sr||5.91||6%|
|192||Wilson, Duane 1 - move to PG?||Marquette||6'2||2 So||3.69||5%|
|231||Watson, Maurice||Creighton||5'10||3 Jr||4.93||-0.21|
|298||Whitehead, Isaiah 15||Seton Hall||6'4||2 So||4.50||0%|
|299||Garrett, Billy 5||DePaul||6'6||3 Jr||4.48||0%|
|993||Carter, Traci||Marquette||6'0||1 Fr||2.10||0%|
|1002||LoVett, Marcus||St. John's||6'0||1 Fr||2.09||0%|
|1284||Austin, Larry 0||Xavier||6'2||2 So||1.64||0%|
|1949||Stewart, Marlon||Creighton||6'1||1 Fr||1.00||0%|
Granted, I am not sure if Isaiah Whitehead is ultimately the point guard at Seton Hall - which will be playing someone out of position there. But Mo Watson already rated very high at Boston University before his transfer year to Creighton, and while you can argue the order of the rest, it is a gauntlet.
I did not agree with the co-MVP for Ryan Arcidiacono, but most would rate him higher than my 133rd (still top 3% of all players), and many also believe Billy Garrett should be rated even higher. Obviously Roosevelt Jones is a different kind of point guard, but he would outweigh Carter by 50 pounds. I have D'Vauntes Smith Rivera ranked higher than most, but the guy can play.
So while I would love to have the option of Duane Wilson ending up having 30-point games at point guard, I would assume he ends up taking the load at point guard against this elite level of play. I believe Carter will be awesome, but he is a freshman and let's protect him a little!
Written by JohnPudner at 4:14 PM
Thursday, November 05, 2015
This has nothing to do with the story, but four years after NBC Sports referenced Value Add Basketball in saying Jae Crowder might be the most complete player in basketball - he added what would have been the longest shot ever if it counted. But from the thrill of victory, we go to the agony of defeat ...
The recent www.valueaddbasketball.com calculations ranked St. John's a DISTANT last place as the 150th best team in the country, and after tonight those who did not join us in picking them last are feeling guilty.
That is because Division II St. Thomas Aquinas just destroyed Chris Mullin's debut 90-58.
Our ranking also made them the only team that we did not believe would deserve a bid to ANY post season tournament - even assuming the CBI and CIT were able to get the best 48 teams after the NCAA and NIT selected. Here are the rankings, and what bid the other nine teams would deserve.
|51||Seton Hall||29.38||0.3||BE||2 NIT||1-seed|
|51||Seton Hall||29.38||0.3||BE||2 NIT||1-seed|
Gary Parrish at CBS Sports had a good sense of humor about the game, writing that it made him look "crazy" for having picked St. John's ahead of DePaul as the 9th best team. My recent piece in Breitbart Sports noted it looked very uphill, with my lead paragraph stating:
Written by JohnPudner at 1:14 AM
Sunday, November 01, 2015
After updating the Value Add database today, I immediately simulated a season in which Marquette went 23-13 (including 3-11 against NCAA-bound teams) to earn a 2-seed in the NIT where we lost at Stanford in the quarterfinals or to Syracuse in the semis at MSG.
Henry Ellenson (7.4 points in Value Add) and Duane Wilson (5.27) makes MU 12.67 points better per game than they would be without either - and they join Butler, Providence and Xavier with two players in the top 5% of all players. The only team with more is Villanova (5 players in top 5%).
Winning those two would revenge past heartbreaking NCAA losses to both and give us a shot at South Carolina for the NIT title. Obviously just a couple of extra wins turn a 2-seed in the NIT into an NCAA team, so hopefully MU is back in the Big Dance.
The following is the game-by-game giving the team with the higher Value Add the win once adjusting for home court advantage and the fact that young teams like MU improve more during a season than more experienced teams. This is why I have MU as a Big East 6-seed defeating Xavier as a 3-seed in the opening round of the Big East tournament. I also have MU as the best team in the NIT tournament, but with the overall record justifying a 2-seed, MU would play AT Stanford and then in MSG vs. Syracuse to lose home court advantage.
For MU and then each opponent I list the team's National rank based purely on the sum of their players' Value Add (Marquette is the 55th best team based on 28.28 in total Value Add and Belmont is 133rd based on 16.25).
"NBA" is how many NBA players the team will likely have, so MU has a 1.0 based on Henry Ellenson having a 91% chance and JJJ and Duane Wilson having a small chance to make the NBA. The only opponent with more potential NBA talent is LSU with a 1.4 as the rounded sum of Ben Simmons (96% chance), Tim Quarterman (34%), Craig Victor (8%), Elbert Robinson (4%) and Josh Gray (4%). In other words, we expect LSU to produce 1.4 NBA players like we expect the average American couple to produce 1.9 children.
MU's first opponent Belmont would win the OVC to get the bid and a 16-seed based on Value Add, giving MU three projected NCAA opponents in 10 days with Iowa (11-seed) and LSU (7-seed). While a big underdog against LSU the first game in New York, MU would have the edge in the second New York game November 24 - whether it be against NC State or Arizona State.
Obviously the March opponents in the NIT, NCAA or any other tournament could be anyone, and I laid out the extra tournament games in both the Big East and NIT, even though under this scenario MU would be eliminated before facing Nova for the Big East title or Syracuse or South Carolina in the NIT Final Four.
|Nat'l||Team||Pred||Value Add||NBA||Conf||Bid||Seed||MU vs.|
|27||Louisiana St.||L||38.76||1.4||SEC||1 NCAA||7-seed||11/23/2015|
|62||North Carolina St.||W||27.17||0.2||ACC||2 NIT||3-seed||11/24/2015|
|296||San Jose St.||W||5.77||0.0||MWC||12/8/2015|
|51||Seton Hall||W||29.38||0.3||BE||2 NIT||1-seed||12/30/2015|
|51||Seton Hall||L||29.38||0.3||BE||2 NIT||1-seed||2/3/2016|
|159||Weber St.||W||14.15||0.2||BSky||2 NIT||7-seed||3/17/2016|
|50||South Carolina||L||29.68||0.1||SEC||2 NIT||1-seed||3/31/2016|
|23-13 (Nova, Syracuse, SC)|
Ellenson ranks in the top 60 of all players. Remember, even though he is one of the best 10 players based on mock drafts, players are drafted based on how good they will get to be - so always be patient with freshmen! The huge improvement for most players is during the offseason between freshman and sophomore seasons.
Written by JohnPudner at 2:44 AM