State of the Program
This is really the question, isn't it? Marquette is the only high-major that is sticking with a full retain and develop model. Shaka Smart has a roster full of guys that came to Marquette from high school and have spent their entire careers in blue and gold. It has provided a steady program floor as Marquette has earned single-digit NCAA seeds in four straight years for the first time since the 2007-2010 Tournaments. It has also provided high ceilings as Smart took Marquette to the two highest seeds in program history, earning 2-seeds in 2023 and 2024. But now, the stars of those teams are gone. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Tyler Kolek, Oso Ighodaro, and Kam Jones are in the NBA while Stevie Mitchell and David Joplin have also matriculated. The outside consensus is that Marquette has a high enough floor to compete for NCAA bids even in down years and a high enough ceiling to compete on the national stage in up years, but is eschewing the transfer portal completely something that will prevent Marquette from breaking through at that highest level to reach a Final Four and achieve more than just an appearance when they get there?
Sean Jones: Casual fans may have forgotten Jones is part of this team after a torn ACL in January 2024 derailed his career for 22 months by the time he returns to the court. On his radio show last year, Smart made mention that Jones was ready to go as early as January but ultimately the decision was made to sit out the season so he wouldn't lose a year of eligibility. That has given Jones close to a full year to hone his game post-rehab ahead of this upcoming season. In terms of shot selection, he's Marquette's dream, having taken 41.7% of his shots from three, 7.7% in the midrange, and 50.6% at the rim. While he hasn't been an elite shooter, he has a tendency to hit big shots. His three against Illinois pushed the lead to 57-52 and Illinois would never get back to even, his three against UCLA in Maui put Marquette ahead 71-69 and proved to be the winner, and his back-to-back threes against Creighton turned a 48-46 deficit into a 52-48 lead and Creighton would never again tie the game. Jones has been a fine secondary distributor, but needs to take a step up in that regard (20.4% assist rate in 2024). On the defensive end, Jones has quick hands and excels generating turnovers, but his diminutive size puts him at a disadvantage in the half-court against longer players.
Chase Ross: Ever since his freshman year, Chase Ross has flashed the kind of burst and athleticism that NBA scouts are searching for. While the raw physical ability, the shooting range, the ability to play above the rim, and the defensive instincts have always been there, the consistency has not. While Marquette's struggles last year were largely attributed to the success of Kam Jones, Ross may have been the bellwether for the team. When Ross had a 100+ Adjusted Offensive Rating, Marquette was 20-3. When he was below 100, Marquette was just 3-8. Chase will certainly step into the leadership vacuum, but his history suggests that may be more emotional than in terms of carrying the scoring load. Ross has never taken more than 15.7% of the shots when on the court, while Jones, Parham, and Gold have all had averages of 19.8% or higher. Marquette will hope for a defensive linchpin and steadying presence from Ross, but he likely will be more of an efficient scorer than a high-volume one.
Zaide Lowery: In mid-January, it was like a light came on for Zaide Lowery. Through 18 games, he was playing 13.6 minutes per game and never got off the bench in three of them. In the last 16 games, Lowery averaged 17.8 minutes and redefined his role off the bench as a hyper-efficient scorer and reliable defensive stopper.
Because of this improvement Zaide seems likely to claim a starting spot on this year's team. Alongside Jones and Ross, he gives Marquette an active defensive perimeter capable of turning an opponent possession into points going the other way at a moment's notice. Cracked Sidewalks was told that Lowery was one of the two most impressive Marquette players in their scrimmage win over Missouri, giving us one small data point to support an expanded role.
Royce Parham: In Shaka Smart's first year at Marquette, he took a power forward that was Marquette's highest usage returning player and turned Justin Lewis into an all-league player en route to the NCAA Tournament. This year, with another roster fans aren't as familiar with, the power forward that is Marquette's highest usage returning player is Parham, who was a more efficient scorer than freshman Lewis and shot higher from two, three, and the free throw line. Parham isn't the bully-ball player Lewis was, but he's a better fit for Nevada Smith's offense and is poised for a major freshman-to-sophomore leap. Parham needs to get stronger to battle on the boards, but Smart has a long history of turning rotational wing/forward freshmen into productive sophomores.
The above looks at wing/forward players that played 30-50% of minutes as freshmen under Smart. By and large, these players improved their efficiency, usage, shooting, and rebounding numbers. In terms of counting stats, on average scoring increased 89.4% and rebounding by 55.8%. The clear outlier is Jericho Sims, though his sophomore year included the unexpected freshman one-and-done star Jaxson Hayes cutting into his opportunity. Expect a big jump from Parham, who had the second highest Offensive Rating (Alie-Cox) and third highest usage (Graham, Lewis), which could augur a jump on par with those two.
Ben Gold: Perhaps no player will draw more divided opinions on this roster than Gold. He's increased his minutes, offensive efficiency, and three-point percentage (71.9% of his career shots are outside the arc) every year at Marquette. However, he's seen his usage decline each year, hasn't developed much as a rim protector or rebounder. His struggles with bruising centers like Zuby Ejiofor and Tarris Reed have drawn fan ire. On offense, Gold is one of the best pick-and-pop players in the country but those long range shots come at the cost of not being inside to hit the boards and not being as efficient on the interior as his predecessor, Oso Ighodaro, was. Defensively, Marquette was 5.9 adjusted points/100 possessions better with Gold on the floor, but was that a function of his defense or a lack of defensive acumen in the post from Parham and Caedin Hamilton?
Ultimately, Gold is a perfectly adequate fifth starter, with pros and cons to his game. On offense, while Marquette doesn't rebound as well with him on the floor, the improved shooting both at the rim and from three more than offsets those negatives and Marquette is more efficient on the whole with him in the game. On defense, while Marquette gives up more at the rim with him in the game, the overall eFG% and defensive rating is better with Ben because of his ability to guard inside/out. Defensively, Marquette doesn't rebound well regardless, but last year Marquette's offensive and defensive rebounding rates were the best ranks of Shaka's short tenure at Marquette so it's hard to put all that on Ben. The hope will be for more consistency and a bit of a tougher defensive edge, especially against physically imposing bigs like Ejiofor, Reed, and Oswin Erhunmwunse.
The Bench: Marquette has exciting depth, but it's largely unproven. Tre Norman is the one known commodity. While he's a solid defender, he's never put together an efficient offensive game and saw his minutes cut down the stretch last year, which opens the door to other contributors. All summer long, we've heard about how Nigel James and Adrien Stevens will be ready to contribute from day one. That said, freshmen stealing minutes from experienced players is a tale as old as time. The hope will be that James can be an able complement to Jones. He has a reputation as a tenacious defender with a developing offensive game that can get downhill or connect from range. Stevens has drawn comparisons to recently graduated Stevie Mitchell because of his defensive acumen and quick hands (cue the Stevens "Mitchell") nickname. However all of that potential will sound familiar after Damarius Owens never really lived up to last year's hype. He provides wing depth and has flashed offensive explosiveness if he can cut down on the turnovers. Up front, Caedin Hamilton and Josh Clark add additional depth in the front court. Unless...
Marquette's Fetch Hamilton, because the staff is trying to make him happen
Photo from @marquette.basketball | Instagram
In the movie Mean Girls, teenager Gretchen Wieners continually refers to things as being "Fetch," which is her personal word for something that's cool. Throughout the movie she uses the term despite it not catching on with anyone else. Finally, her classmate Regina George says "stop trying to make Fetch happen, it's not going to happen." Last year, the Marquette staff talked up Caedin Hamilton as someone who would have a major rotation role, but like Fetch, that never happened. So far this year, the public facing information is that Hamilton was Marquette's best player in each of the first three weeks of practice and Smart has talked about him frequently as the most improved player and one of the first names he discussed at Big East Media Day. Cracked Sidewalks was told that Hamilton was one of the two best players in the Missouri scrimmage win. Preseason hype often fails to match up with results, but if Hamilton is a starting-level Big East center, that would allow Ben Gold to play a more natural power forward role that will let him use his length as a perimeter defender, help-side shot blocker, and diminish his need to be in the paint. It would also likely push Royce Parham to the bench, meaning his breakout could come in the form of a Big East Sixth Man of the Year contender who can effectively back up 2-5 similar to what David Joplin did as a sophomore. Hamilton's play last year certainly wouldn't traditionally augur a Big East breakout, but if he's ready to make Fetch happen, it would significantly raise the ceiling for this team.
Style of Play
Marquette's offense starts on the defensive end where the team is elite at creating turnovers and scoring in transition. Once in the half-court, Marquette shifted a bit away from pick and roll offense last year, especially in terms of the big men. Replacing Oso Ighodaro with a pick-and-pop big like Ben Gold will do that. They will continue to prioritize getting shots beyond the arc or at the rim; Marquette's 15.0% midrange rate was #342 nationally. Expect this team to get downhill more, which starts with Sean Jones. He's taken more than 50% of his shots at the rim both seasons and is better at drawing and playing through contact than either Tyler Kolek or Kam Jones were. Thus far he hasn't been the creator those two were which likely means that's been a priority for DeAndre Haynes in Jones' rehabilitation.
What will really be different about this offense, however, will be the pace. While Marquette has been in the top-25 of offensive possession length all four years under Smart, that was with some players like Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, and Stevie Mitchell who were not possessed of blistering footspeed. That's not the case with this team. Sean Jones is one of the fastest end-to-end players in the country. Ross and Lowery are both able to get up court quickly. Nigel James may rival Jones' speed. Now that we finally have a roster full of players Shaka recruited out of high school, I expect we will see what may be the fastest offense in the country, and almost certainly top-10 at worst. While there could be some correlation rather than causation here, look at the adjusted offensive ranks of high major teams that finished top-25 in average possession length on offense, with percent of shots taken in midrange mixed in for fun:
What we see here is that out of the 24 high-major teams to play at an APL ranked in the top-25 over the last 4 years, 9 finished with a top-10 offense (37.5%), 15 finished with a top-25 offense (62.5%), and 20 finished with a top-50 offense (83.3%). Only four finished outside the top-20, and all of them took more than 20% of their shots in the midrange. The hypothesis is simple. If you play at a high offensive tempo, you will get opportunities before the offense is set, and if your teams are well-schooled to take good shots, that will result in a high-level offense. This has been a successful formula through sub-100 eFG% rankings (2022 Alabama, 2025 Marquette), sub-200 turnover rates (2022 & 2023 Alabama, 2023 Arizona), sub-100 offensive rebounding rates (2022 Gonzaga, 2023 & 2024 Marquette), and sub-300 free throw rates (2023-25 Marquette). Knowing that Marquette is almost certainly going to take fewer than 20% of their shots in midrange (15.0% or lower each of the past three years), Marquette's offensive floor is likely still in the top-50, with a top-25 offense more likely than a sub-50 offense.
Defensively, while there are principles of Shaka's chaos-inducing Havoc defense from his VCU days, his success at Marquette is with an even more insidious defensive philosophy. To illustrate this, we're going to focus on three stats that most people see as superfluous but help explain why it's such an effective defense.
We start with defensive possession length. The focus here starts with Marquette's 3/4 court press. The goal isn't just to force half-court violations but to force 8-10 seconds off the shot clock before the offense can get into their sets. This means that if the offense is able to get into their half-court offense, they already have less time than they are accustomed to. Next we look at the percent of opponent shots assisted. On its own this only tells us that successful offensive possessions against Marquette are most likely to come from ball movement. However the counter to this is that it's hard to score one-on-one against Marquette's defense. If you want to find success, you have to move the ball, probe the defense, and actively create a good look. Third, we go to one of Shaka's hallmarks, turnover rate. Marquette has forged an elite defense in terms of turnover rate which immediately cuts offensive efficiency on that possession to zero and opens up offensive transition opportunities where Marquette has been in the 86th or better percentile each of the past three years. When taken together, Marquette's defense forces long possessions that need to move the ball to succeed. And every second that ticks off the clock, every extra pass that has to be made to create a good look, those are all one more opportunity for Marquette's defense to turn opponents over. This is how Marquette's last three seasons have featured their three best defensive ranks in at kenpom since Jae Crowder was winning BEPOY despite ranking outside the top-100 in eFG% and outside the top-200 in Offensive Rebounding rate all of those years.
Marquette's biggest weakness is on the interior. The Golden Eagles were #247 in defensive rebound rate (31.0%) and #201 in 2PFG% at the rim (57.9%). The at the rim number is particularly concerning because when Royce Parham and Ben Gold were on the court together, it ballooned to 66.7%. Hopefully a full offseason of growth and playing together will get them better acclimated to covering each other's deficiencies and serving as help-side shot-blockers when the perimeter breaks down. If not, that turnover rate will need to improve if Marquette has any hopes of maintaining a top-30 defense.
2025-26 Outlook
It feels like the vibe around this season is that Marquette will be down this year. I think that's premature. First and foremost, this defense has real potential to again be excellent. I hesitate to think they can be a top-10 defense without better rim protection, but the perimeter defense and turnover capability will be excellent. This should be a top-20 defense with any semblance of rim protection raising that ceiling.
The pundit and fan focus is on what Marquette lost. Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell, and David Joplin were some of the winningest players in program history. But are their losses more significant than Justin Lewis, Darryl Morsell, Kur Kuath, and Greg Elliott in 2022? In terms of raw scoring, the 2022 team lost 56.1% of their scoring and the 2025 team lost 57.9%, a very similar total. In the past 28 years, Marquette and Shaka have had 13 combined seasons when they lost between 40-60% of their volume scoring. In 6 instances the next year's offense was worse, in 7 instances the next year's offense was better. As we said in 2022, losing volume scoring is not a major concern.
What's more important offensively is what we pointed out above. Marquette has consistently developed players with elite offensive efficiency, like Tyler Kolek, O-Max Prosper, Oso Ighodaro, and Kam Jones. Chase Ross, Ben Gold, and Zaide Lowery have already demonstrated similar growth so why should fans not expect Sean Jones, Royce Parham, and Damarius Owens to follow suit given the opportunity? This team is going to attack quickly, get shots before the defense is set, and we know they'll take quality shots because all of these guys have spent their entire college careers in a system that drills that and is designed to create those looks. I firmly believe we saw Marquette's offensive floor in 2022 because that team of Wojo leftovers and transfers were too conditioned to take midrange shots. Nevada Smith will have this offense in the top-50 and most likely significantly higher than that. Last year's team struggled on offense when Kam Jones and David Joplin weren't making shots but everyone still relied on them to be the primary options. I fully believe when forced into the deep end, the players who know this system and are given the confidence to execute will do just that.
One Man's Opinion
Picking Marquette #2 in the Big East might just seem like fan bias, but it's as much about the rest of the Big East as it is about Marquette. There's a clear Tier 1 in the Big East and now that we're this high in the previews we can say UConn stands alone. Tier 2 is St. John's, Creighton, and Marquette. We covered the St. John's roster deficiencies. In 20 of the past 21 seasons, at least one preseason top-10 team has finished the season unranked and if I were betting on any of this year's top-10, St. John's would top that list. That leaves Creighton and Marquette, who are like a reverse Spider-Man meme. Creighton should have a great offense with questions on defense while Marquette has a great defense with questions on offense. If both of the trusted units are top-20 nationally, the question is whether Creighton's defense or Marquette's offense will be better. Given the track records, I have less faith in McDermott having a top-50 defense than I do Smart and Smith piecing together a top-50 offense. It's by a narrow margin, but Marquette gets the edge over both St. John's and Creighton.
