Cracked Sidewalks

Yarou and Nova’s offensive rebounding makes it toughest challenge of 8-game stretch; MU tries to break 4-game losing streak at Nova

2012-01-26T20:39:00.004-06:00

Three down and five to go in the 8-game stretch of winnable games that gives MU the inside track on heading into UConn Feb. 18 at least in 2nd place in the Big East. Perhaps more importantly, the 0.71 points allowed per trip vs. South Florida culminated a 6-game stretch of excellent defense that put in MU in the top 20 of all defensive teams, which Rob pointed out Wednesday is the average for an Elite 8 team.

But can the much improved defense beat a team that is great at the one thing MU has been unable to stop since Otule's injury - offensive rebounding? While Maalik Wayns is the 15th best player in the league statistically, it is 6-foot-10 Mouphtaou Yarou (33rd best) and his back-up 6-foot-9 freshman Markus Kennedy have helped make Nova the 23rd best offensive rebounding team in the country and 11th best among BCS teams according to Pomeroy.

While MU is clearly the better team Saturday (11 a.m. tip-off), MU has been the much better team in all three games against teams ranked 23rd or higher in offensive rebounding (Nova first game, Pitt and Washington) and has barely survived all three games. This is the first time we go up against a dominant offensive rebounding team ON THE ROAD. MU seems to either be unable to keep these teams off the glass (45.7% offensive rebounding first game vs. Nova), or have to crash the defensive boards so hard that the offense can't get going in transition (vs. Pitt).

Since Chris Otule was injured MU has plunged to 279th in the country (35.4% offensive rebounding allowed). Put that together with Nova's offensive rebounding, and Nova projects to grab a scary 41.9% of their own misses. (You multiply the deviances of the offense and defense from the national average then multiply that figure back by the national average if anyone cares).

	Vil OffR	Mar DefR
	38.3	35.4
Natl Ave	32.5	32.5	Proj below
Deviance	1.18	1.09	41.72

In Milwaukee, Nova only fell short by 4 points because they hit only 3 of 17 three-pointers. With the average 8-point swing from one home court to another, that gives Nova a 4-point edge, while Pomeroy projects a 4-point Marquette win.

The good news (again, pointed out by Rob Wednesday) is that MU is coming off its best defensive performance ever in Big East play under Buzz. As the chart above shows, the 0.71 adjusted points allowed per trip against South Florida was even better than the incredible defense played against Wisconsin (0.77) and UW-Green Bay (0.79), though not as good as the manhandling of Mt. St. Mary’s to start the season (an 0.59 even after adjusting for Mt. St. Mary’s well below average offense).

If MU can win this one, then we project to win three of the next four – and the projected standings heading into the February 18 game at UConn would be:

Syracuse 12-2
Marquette 10-3
Georgetown 9-4
West Virginia 9-5
Cincinnati 8-5

It gets tougher after that, but if the defense keeps playing well, the final few weeks could be fun. Here is the game-by-game defense for the season.

Opponent	PtAll	Poss	Raw D	Adj D
Mt. St. Mary's	37	72	0.51	0.590
Norfolk St.	68	84	0.81	0.826
Winthrop	73	71	1.03	1.102
Mississippi	66	80	0.83	0.845
Norfolk St.	57	64	0.89	0.909
Jacksonville	56	68	0.82	0.851
Wisconsin	54	63	0.86	0.768
w/ Otule	59	72	0.82	0.840
Washington	77	72	1.07	0.999
UW Green Bay	61	77	0.79	0.845
N. Colorado	72	74	0.97	0.940
Louisiana St.	67	65	1.03	1.025
UWM	50	65	0.77	0.786
Vanderbilt	74	70	1.06	0.965
Villanova	77	73	1.05	0.963
Georgetown	73	66	1.11	0.996
1st 8 no Otule	69	70	0.98	0.942
Syracuse	73	74	0.99	0.840
St. John's	64	70	0.91	0.917
Pittsburgh	57	59	0.97	0.870
Louisville	63	72	0.88	0.845
Providence	72	65	1.11	1.051
South Florida	47	64	0.73	0.713
Last 6	63	67	0.93	0.872

For perspective, below are the Top 5 defenses in the land. With Otule, MUs 0.840 was better than any defense except Ohio State and Wisconsin. The first 8 games adjusting to Otule's absense, MU was only as good defensively as the 59th best defense (Indiana). In the past 6 games, MU's defense has been as good as the 8th best in the land - UNC.

Defenses	Adj D
1. Ohio State	0.777
2. Wisconsin	0.815
3. Kansas (same as MU with Otule)	0.841
4. Virginia	0.841
5. Florida St.	0.856
8. UNC (same as MU last 6 games)	0.872
20. Marquette	0.900
59. Indiana (same as MU 1st 8 without Otule)	0.940

Defense and Projections

2012-01-25T09:26:00.001-06:00

Last year, in early January, I wrote an article wondering if Defense was Marquette's Achilles Heel. It's worth re-reading, but here is an update.

Teams that are elite have good defenses. In particular, over the past five years, here are the average defensive rankings of teams at each level of the NCAA tourney.

Won their first game (#34)
Sweet Sixteen (#26)
Elite Eight (#20)
Final Four (#17)

It was the exception rather than the norm for a team like Marquette (defensive rank of #61) to make the Sweet Sixteen last year. In fact, over the last five years, only twelve teams with a defensive rank worse than 50 (15% of teams) make the Sweet Sixteen. Only three teams with a defensive rank worse than 50 made the Elite Eight (8%), and one of them was VCU! It happens, but the odds are against you. This was a giant concern for Buzz's teams, which had never been better than a defensive rank of 50 over three years. Tangent - it was a total freak that the 2003 team (defensive rank of #101) made the Final Four... helps that they were #1 offensively.

Not all aspects of defense are the same. In particular, defensive eFG% is twice as important as forcing turnovers, three times as important as preventing offensive rebounds, and fourteen times more important than not letting your opponent get to the free throw line. Marquette's defense under Buzz has been weakest in the most important area (eFG%) and strongest in the least important area (free throw rate)

Last night's result against South Florida was the best Big East defensive game in Buzz's tenure. Marquette held the Bulls to 0.71 ppp on 40% eFG and a turnover rate of 37%. More importantly, although this was a great result defensively, it wasn't a particularly unique result this year. Here's where things currently stand defensively for Marquette, in comparison to the last three years.

Marquette has turned their defense into the #24 overall unit. In other words, MU's defense is playing somewhere between the average Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight defense for the first time under Buzz. There's also a marked difference in the defensive priorities, with our strengths now in the two most important aspects of defense. Note that at this time last year, Marquette's defense was ranked #70. Finally, as Pudner wrote a week ago, the defense is ranked higher than the offense for the first time under Buzz.

Should expectations be high for the remainder of the season? Consider this, according to the Pomeroy projections (subscription required - but seriously, it's the best value on the Internets).

Marquette has about a 93% chance of finishing with 11+ wins (5-5 down the stretch)
About an 80% of finishing with 12+ wins (6-4)
~50% of finishing with 13+ wins
and for you real optimists, about a 20% of finishing with 14 wins or more

A winnable road opportunity awaits this weekend at Villanova. Saturday's game will prove an additional marker of how good Marquette can be this season, both overall and defensively. Here's to continued defensive success for the rest of the season and beyond.

MU, Gtown, Syracuse and Seton Hall claim 14 of top 25 BE players as MU goes for sole possession of 3rd place tonight

2012-01-24T02:42:00.005-06:00

No one would have predicted that Marquette and South Florida would be playing for sole possession of 3rd place in the Big East tonight. Marquette enters the Bradley Center tonight for a 7 p.m. start with three of the Top 25 players in the conference this year, a feat matched by Syracuse, Georgetown and Seton Hall that leaves the other 12 teams in the conference with only 11 between them.

Kevin Jones nudges out Jae Crowder in a two-way race for conference MVP in the Total Value Top 25 listed below, but if the Mountaineers are to stay near the top of the standings this year then Jones will have to carry them by himself as their next best two players barely crack the conference Top 50. West Virginia's Truck Bryant (39th) and freshman point guard Jaborie Hinds (47th) are having very good but not dominant seasons. The Top 25 most valuable players to date:

Rnk	Top 25 Big East Players	Team	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
1	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
2	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
3	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
4	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
5	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
6	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
7	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	Seton Hall	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
9	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
10	Herb Pope	Seton Hall	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
11	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
12	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
13	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
14	Jack Cooley	Notre Dame	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
15	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
16	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
17	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
18	Kyle Kuric	Louisville	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
19	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
20	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
21	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
22	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
23	Jerian Grant	Notre Dame	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
25	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17

Quick Explanation – then the Top 100 players by team:
Total Value is the measurement of the percentage of points a player averages adding to his team’s score with offense and subtracting from the opponents' score with defense on a given night. The calculation that Crowder adds 5.44% to Marquette’s score and takes 3.84% of the opponents points away with defense (Total Value 9.28%) indicates that Marquette would be projected to drop from a 24-7 team with Crowder to a 16-15 team without him if going by results to date and Pomeroy’s projections for the rest of the year. The eight games that switch from wins to losses if Crowder is not playing are; Washington, 2nd Norfolk State, Villanova and Pitt as well as projected scores for Seton Hall, Notre Dame, and 2nd Villanova and Georgetown games. Only Kevin Jones is more valuable in the Big East, and noone else is close.

Thankfully the engineer just finished the program to run Total Value this week, so I am no longer risking mistakes on long spreadsheets as I pinpoint the following three precise calculations:

1. Offensive Value Add was first covered by Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated, then picked up on by ESPN, and finally adopted as a building block for other calculations including a recent one from Basketball Prospectus.

2. The Defensive Value Subtract is equally important, and has been perfected in recent months by an engineer building my program, but is not nearly as easily grasped and I don't plan to detail the formulas further. However, while the overall team Defensive Value Subtracts are very accurate, you must use common sense to adjust for on-ball defense and rotations, within the team up to 1% plus or minus per player. For example, if you adjusted DJOs defense by 1% for his much improved on-ball defense, and subtracted 1% from Gardner's defensive rating for slow rotations, you end up with DJO as the 13th best player in the Big East and Davante Gardner as the 28th best.

3. The NBA Predictor is an adjustment I am finalizing to measure not the impact on the college team, but how much impact the player is likely to have if taken at the next level, as not all great college players can translate their game to the pros but others do surprisingly well. However, this third part of the program is intended for a much smaller audience so won’t appear here. There are NBA indicators with DJO that make him a potential first round pick, even though his high turnovers and low steals hold his rating back at the college level.

The first two factors give a very accurate account of every player in the league.

While certainly Syracuse has the inside track on the championship, in the end they do not appear as dominant to me as Ohio State, Kentucky or even UNC and Duke by the end of the year. If Marquette can win at Villanova Saturday, a toss-up game due to Nova’s strong offensive rebounding that often gives MU trouble, I believe we can legitimately consider the possibility that MU could win the Big East regular season title in a year in which the conference is down from the past three years.

Here are the Top 100 players grouped by team, starting with tonight’s opponent South Florida. I also list the projected final conference record based on Pomeroy.

Rnk	Marquette (Proj 12-6)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
2	Jae Crowder	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
17	Davante Gardner	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
51	Jamil Wilson	6-foot-7	1.38	-0.67	2.05
55	Vander Blue	6-foot-4	0.53	-1.44	1.97
61	Todd Mayo	6-foot-3	1.90	0.00	1.90
74	Junior Cadougan	6-foot-1	0.72	-0.66	1.37
85	Chris Otule	6-foot-11	0.00	-0.86	0.86
91	Derrick Wilson	6-foot-0	0.10	-0.37	0.47
94	Jamail Jones	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.36	0.36

Rnk	South Florida (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
29	Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	6-foot-8	1.74	-2.00	3.74
34	Ron Anderson	6-foot-8	2.83	-0.50	3.33
42	Hugh Robertson	6-foot-6	1.78	-0.81	2.59
76	Augustus Gilchrist	6-foot-10	0.81	-0.44	1.25
83	Shaun Noriega	6-foot-4	0.95	0.00	0.95
84	Jawanza Poland	6-foot-4	0.64	-0.28	0.92
95	LaVonte Dority	6-foot-1	0.35	0.00	0.35

Rnk	Cincinnati (Proj 11-7)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
13	Sean Kilpatrick	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
31	Cashmere Wright	6-foot-0	1.89	-1.59	3.48
40	Jaquon Parker	6-foot-3	2.48	-0.27	2.75
41	Yancy Gates	6-foot-9	1.43	-1.24	2.66
45	Dion Dixon	6-foot-3	1.72	-0.72	2.44
46	Justin Jackson	6-foot-8	0.59	-1.78	2.37
93	Jermaine Sanders	6-foot-5	0.36	0.00	0.36

Rnk	Connecticut (Proj 10-8)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
3	Jeremy Lamb	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
9	Shabazz Napier	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
50	Tyler Olander	6-foot-9	1.68	-0.37	2.06
60	Ryan Boatright	6-foot-0	1.82	-0.09	1.91
73	Niels Giffey	6-foot-7	1.30	-0.08	1.38
80	Alex Oriakhi	6-foot-9	0.74	-0.32	1.07

Rnk	DePaul (Proj 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
36	Brandon Young	6-foot-3	3.15	0.00	3.15
48	Jeremiah Kelly	6-foot-0	2.17	0.00	2.17
67	Krys Faber	6-foot-10	1.30	-0.31	1.61
86	Cleveland Melvin	6-foot-8	0.44	-0.37	0.81

Rnk	Georgetown (Proj 13-5)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
4	Jason Clark	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
6	Hollis Thompson	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
16	Otto Porter	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
22	Henry Sims	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
53	Nate Lubick	6-foot-8	1.16	-0.84	2.00
58	Markel Starks	6-foot-2	1.94	0.00	1.94
88	Mikael Hopkins	6-foot-9	0.47	-0.03	0.49

Rnk	Louisville (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
12	Gorgui Dieng	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
18	Kyle Kuric	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
28	Chris Smith	6-foot-2	3.36	-0.41	3.77
38	Russ Smith	6-foot-0	0.23	-2.67	2.90
52	Chane Behanan	6-foot-7	0.37	-1.67	2.04
71	Peyton Siva	5-foot-11	0.00	-1.45	1.45
87	Rakeem Buckles	6-foot-7	0.00	-0.52	0.52
98	Elisha Justice	5-foot-10	0.00	-0.27	0.27

Rnk	Notre Dame (Proj 9-9)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
14	Jack Cooley	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
23	Jerian Grant	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
69	Eric Atkins	6-foot-1	1.53	0.00	1.53
79	Scott Martin	6-foot-8	0.00	-1.13	1.13
92	Joey Brooks	6-foot-6	0.45	0.00	0.45

Rnk	Pitt (Projected 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
20	Ashton Gibbs	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
43	Nasir Robinson	6-foot-5	2.51	0.00	2.51
44	Lamar Patterson	6-foot-5	2.46	0.00	2.46
56	Talib Zanna	6-foot-9	1.97	0.00	1.97
57	Dante Taylor	6-foot-9	1.77	-0.18	1.95
66	Travon Woodall	5-foot-11	1.68	0.00	1.68
81	Khem Birch	6-foot-9	0.53	-0.50	1.03
89	J.J. Moore	6-foot-6	0.49	0.00	0.49

Rnk	Providence (Proj 5-13)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
21	Bryce Cotton	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
72	Bilal Dixon	6-foot-9	0.77	-0.67	1.44
75	Vincent Council	6-foot-2	1.30	0.00	1.30
97	Ron Giplaye	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.31	0.31
99	Gerard Coleman	6-foot-4	0.21	0.00	0.21

Rnk	Rutgers (Proj 8-10)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
26	Dane Miller	6-foot-6	0.94	-2.93	3.87
59	Mike Poole	6-foot-5	0.05	-1.86	1.91
62	Myles Mack	5-foot-9	0.77	-1.07	1.83
63	Gilvydas Biruta	6-foot-8	0.50	-1.25	1.75
82	Jerome Seagears	6-foot-1	0.99	0.00	0.99
100	Austin Johnson	6-foot-8	0.06	0.00	0.06

Rnk	Seton Hall (Proj 11-7)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
7	Fuquan Edwin	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
10	Herb Pope	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
49	Patrik Auda	6-foot-9	1.81	-0.27	2.08

Rnk	St. John's (Proj 4-14)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
35	D'Angelo Harrison	6-foot-3	2.72	-0.52	3.25
70	Sir'Dominic Pointer	6-foot-6	0.00	-1.48	1.48
90	Amir Garrett	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.47	0.47

Rnk	Syracuse (Proj 15-3)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
5	Dion Waiters	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
11	Kris Joseph	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
19	James Southerland	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
25	Brandon Triche	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17
27	C.J. Fair	6-foot-8	2.36	-1.48	3.84
30	Scoop Jardine	6-foot-2	2.30	-1.31	3.61
32	Fab Melo	7-foot-0	1.24	-2.19	3.43
54	Baye Moussa Keita	6-foot-10	1.29	-0.70	1.98
64	Michael Carter-Williams	6-foot-5	0.63	-1.06	1.70
68	Rakeem Christmas	6-foot-9	0.67	-0.93	1.60

Rnk	Villanova (Proj 7-11)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
15	Maalik Wayns	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
33	Mouphtaou Yarou	6-foot-10	2.67	-0.75	3.43
37	Dominic Cheek	6-foot-6	3.06	0.00	3.06
77	James Bell	6-foot-6	1.22	0.00	1.22
96	Achraf Yacoubou	6-foot-4	0.33	0.00	0.33

Rnk	West Virginia (Proj 13-5)	Ht	Offense	Defense	Total
1	Kevin Jones	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
39	Darryl Bryant	6-foot-2	2.85	0.00	2.85
47	Jabarie Hinds	5-foot-11	1.42	-0.84	2.26
65	Deniz Kilicli	6-foot-9	0.83	-0.86	1.69
78	Aaron Brown	6-foot-5	1.16	0.00	1.16

Back and Forth: 5-2 Edition

2012-01-23T10:11:00.000-06:00

Rob: Good morning. How does 5-2 go with your coffee?

Tim: Not bad. Good showing vs. Providence. After holding PC to 41% eFG%, #MUBB is holding the opposition to an eFG% of 45.5% overall, their best since Pomeroy began tracking in '03. And, the turnover rate for #MUBB opponents is a whopping 24.5%.

Rob: You know that I care way more about the eFG% defense. It's a great sign, especially since I believe that the ability to force turnovers goes down as the season goes on and you face better opponents*.
*note: not supported by analysis

Tim: It was good to see another Racine product key an #MUBB victory too. Good showing by Jamil; we’ve been waiting for him to break out, and to deliver on the road in a conference game makes it all the more impressive.

Rob: Agreed. The spread on players that have been key contributors is big. That's a good sign, and to have Jamil play strongly bodes well for the team.

Tim: By the way, the PC game marks three straight games where Vander has logged less than 20 mins. Mayo's emergence seems to have pushed Vander into a less prominent role. And again, no Jamail Jones, who still has not shown any signs of establishing himself.

Rob: Vander wasn't bad, though. He played his role well. Shot efficiently, one turnover, four boards. And Jamail doesn't seem to be in good trend, although I do hold out hope he'll stick around and contribute as an upperclassman. Older players are so important for good programs*.
*again not supported by analysis

Tim: Amen. What is interesting is that Vander is becoming a role player rather than the “load-bearing wall” we presumed he would be based on his high school accolades. I am concerned that he is disappearing again, just like last season. Blue has not hit double figures in points since NoCol. In his last four BE games he is averaging 3 ppg and his minutes are down. While he is not a scorer, his struggles against better competition mirror that of his freshman season.

Rob: He doesn't need to be a load bearing wall. As long as he defends and plays efficiently, there are others that can pick up that slack. At least in comparison to last year, he's still contributing in other ways.

It might be time to pull him from the starting lineup officially, just like Paint Touches was asking. I wonder if he's got the maturity to deal with that disappointment. Also, I wonder if putting Mayo in would reverse the slow starts this team is prone to suffering.

I really liked the late game lineup of Jae, Jamil, and Gardner all at the same time.

Tim: Agreed on Vander’s efficiency, his overall game is improved year-to-year … but let’s be honest … players could not care less about a coach saying, “you’re doing great and playing so efficiently for 18 minutes – really, that is better than playing for 30 like you have for your whole life”

Like you said, does he have the maturity to deal with this? It's hard to get pulled as a starter at any level of competition in any sport. Truth is, Vander is a role player right now.

One thing that is interesting is how much more assertive Junior has been of late ... he is committed to the “bully drive” and has delivered 5, 7, 9, 6 and 10 assists consecutively, his best stretch since the first month of the season.

Rob: I think Buzz has been doing a really good job of managing his rotation the last few games. The way he's shuffling the players around has been great. He is tweaking his team on the fly, and it is working.

Honestly, pretty much EVERYONE on the team is role player level but DJO, Jae, and Gardner. That's how I consider Vander/Mayo and appreciate what Buzz is doing with his rotations.

Agreed on Junior. I really need to find a way to measure his impact. The stats aren't so kind to him, but there has to be a better way to show his importance.

Win on Tuesday! 6-2 would be nice

Tim: Agreed on all points. Go #mubb!

Bracketology: Jan. 21

2012-01-21T10:56:00.000-06:00

It's early. Really early. But the way I see it, the best way to have an accurate feel for what might happen come March is to have an idea of what was going on in the months before March. I decided to take a stab at my own version of bracketology. I've used a compilation of RPI, SOS, Pomeroy and Sagarin computer rankings, Record v Top-100, good wins, bad losses, and non-conference SOS. Before analyzing, here's the bracket:

The Big Ten leads the way with 9 bids. The Big East is just behind them with 8. Both the Big 12 and SEC have 5 bids, the ACC and C-USA each have 4, and the A-10, Mountain West, and West Coast have 3 apiece. The only other multi-bid leagues are the Missouri Valley and Pac-12 with 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Southern Miss, Minnesota, and Florida State. The last four teams into the field were BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and UCF. The lowest RPI team to make the field was #85 Cincinnati while the lowest KenPom team to make the field was #93 UCF.

The first four teams out were Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Mississippi, and Northern Iowa. The next four out were St. Louis, LSU, Arizona, and Oregon. The highest RPI team snubbed was #39 Northern Iowa while the highest KenPom team snubbed was #16 St. Louis.

From a Marquette perspective, I feel this would be a decent draw, if somewhat predictable. I'd almost be surprised if MU didn't see Indiana by the Round of 32. I contemplated a first-round match-up with Stanford, but felt Creighton should really be up against a BCS-conference team. Kentucky looms large in the Sweet 16, but clearly that one would have Warrior fans confident considering the history of the two programs

I also tried to have some of the typical NCAA humor we see on Selection Sunday outside of the Crean v Marquette rematch. Hope if nothing else, it provides a bit of enjoyment, and I'll be updating this as the season goes on.

Big East NCAA Teams Becoming Clearer

2012-01-19T09:48:00.005-06:00

Since my last view of the tournament horserace back at the start of the year, the tournament picture has become clearer for the Big East. UL has been exposed. WVU and Cincy have proven themselves as solid teams. Marquette, UConn, and Georgetown continue to prove they belong. And Syracuse continues to roll.

At this early stage, the league has already sorted itself out into 7 top-"half" teams worthy of tournament consideration (Syracuse, Marquette, Cincy, Georgetown, UConn and West Virginia, and possibly Seton Hall), and nine flawed bottom-"half" teams that probably aren’t and probably can’t get there (Pitt, USF, Lousville, Villanova, St. Johns, Rutgers, DePaul, Providence, and Notre Dame). At this point, I can't see an 8th deserving team.

I’m not looking at the mathematical possibilities—I’m looking at the realistic chances based on the old adage that a leopard doesn’t change its spots. With about 20 games under every team’s belt, we have a pretty good idea how good they are, not just by looking at the W/L record, but where those wins and losses came. Take a team like Louisville for example. If they can’t beat Notre Dame or Providence—and the only conference wins are against DePaul and St. Johns—you probably aren’t going to turn it around when you hit a stretch that includes UConn, Georgetown, Syracuse and Cincinnati.

There have been 28 matchups between a top- and bottom-group team. And the top group has won 24 of those of those games. Those 4 exceptions are Rutgers over UConn, USF and Villanova over SHU, and St. Johns over Cincy). Those are upsets—not a sign of hope for RU, SUF VU or SJU.

Take the case of a team like Villanova. They’re 2-5 in conference. They have an easier schedule coming up, with seven games against other bottom opponents (ND and PC at home, road games at Rutgers, Pitt, UL, USF and St. Johns). But I don't see that a team that lost to USF at home can go 7-0 against that schedule. They’re going to lose a few of those. And they still have to face MU, Cincy, GU and UConn as well.

South Florida has a good-looking 4-2 record, but most of those wins have come to other bottom half teams. They also all but disqualified themselves in non-conference play. Five non-conference losses, including Penn State (currently last in the Big 10), and Auburn (nearly last in the SEC) show that USF is not tournament worthy,

The biggest question mark in the conference remains Seton Hall. Their wins over UConn and WVU suggest they belong in the top. But their losses to USF and Villanova suggest they don’t. I’m putting them in the top because the UConn and WVU wins are (for now) more impressive than USF’s win over Seton Hall. And USF is already out based on their poor non-conference performance.

In basketball, past performance is an indication of future capability, but not a guarantee. It is still possible that team like Notre Dame or Rutgers transform themselves and start playing like a contender. That (as they say) why they play the games.

But don’t be surprised when bids come out if the Big East has just seven bids.

Top "Half"/Likely Tournament Worthy:

Syracuse: Undefeated. Interestingly, they have a 6-0 record against the bottom, and have just on game (MU) against the top.

WVU: Overall 4-2. 1-2 against the top half, 3-0 against the bottom half teams. Bottom half wins were over VU, and Rutgers twice. Plus they have a win vs. Cincy. Both losses were to top half teams (SHU, UConn).

Georgetown: Overall 4-1. 1-2 against the top half (Win over MU, losses to WVU & Cincy. 3-0 against the bottom half teams (DePaul, SJU, Providence).

Cincy: Overall 5-1. 2-0 against the top (Georgetown, UConn). 3-1 versus the bottom with wins over VU, Pitt, ND and a loss to SJU.

Marquette: Overall 4-2. 0-2 against the top (GU, SU), 4-0 against the bottom (VU, SJU, Pitt, U).:

SHU: Overall 4-3. 2-1 against the top (Wins over UConn, WVU, loss to Syracuse). 2-2 against the bottom (Beat DePaul, Providence, lost to USF, Villanova)

UConn: Overall 4-3. 1-2 against the top (Beat WVU, Lost to SHU, Cincy). 3-1 against the bottom (Wins over USF, St. Johns, ND, loss to Rutgers)

Bottom Half/Probably Not Tournament Worthy:

USF*: 4-2 overall. 1-1 against the top (win over SHU, loss to UConn). And 3-1 against the bottom (wins vs. RU, St. Johns and Villanova, loss to ND).

St. Johns*: 2-5 overall. 1-3 against the top (Win against Cincy, losses to MU, GU, UConn). 1-2 against the bottom (Win over PC, losses to USF, UL).

Rutgers*: Overall 3-3. 1-2 against the top (Win over UConn, 2 losses to WVU). 2-1 against the bottom (Wins vs. ND & Pitt, loss to USF).

Notre Dame*: Overall 3-3. 0-2 against the top (UC, UConn), 3-1 against the bottom (victory over Rutgers, losses to Pitt, UL, USF).

DePaul: Overall 1-5. 0-3 against the top (SU, SHU, GU); 1-2 against the bottom (win over Pitt, losses to VU, UL).

Villanova*: Overall 2-5. 1-4 against the top (Beat SHU, lost to MU, WVU, SU, Cincy). 1-1 against the bottom (Beat DePaul, Lost to USF).

Providence: Overall 1-5. 0-4 against the top (GU, SUx2, GU). 1-1 against the bottom (UL was the win, St. Johns was the loss)

Louisville: 2-4 overall. 0-2 against the top (MU, GU), and 2-2 against the bottom (Wins versus SJU, DePaul, losses to ND, PC).

Pitt: No wins – 0-6 overall. 0-3 against the top-half (Cincy, MU & SU), 0-3 versus the bottom-half (ND, DePaul, Rutgers).

*Team with five or more non-conference losses.

All-Star Weekend

2012-01-17T07:17:00.010-06:00

I just had my first all star experience this past weekend in Saitama, Japan for the BJ League. I also got to participate in the 3 point contest which was a lot of fun. Saitama Super Arena was packed with 14,000 people to watch the best players in the league perform. Saitama is just outside of Tokyo, which made it a perfect host to the festivities.

Some of the notable American players people in the U.S. may recognize are: Lynn Washington and Jeff Newton(Indiana alumni), John "Helicopter"Humphrey (AND1), Lance Allred (Weber St./Cleveland Cavs), Justin Burrell (St. John's), Ray Nixon (Wisconsin), and Kevin Palmer (Texas A&M). They also included several of the league's Japanese stars, which makes for a fun atmosphere for the fans.

Surprisingly, this was my first ever official 3 point contest since high school. They only invited two americans to participate, all the rest being japanese who are known for their spot shooting. I won the first round, and went head to head in the final against the only 6-time all-star in the leagues history in 5'4" Japanese phenom, Cohey Aoki. It came down to my last money ball that rimmed in and out, and I lost by one! It made for an exciting start to the weekend's events, and I definitely want to come back next year to avenge the loss.

John "Helicopter" Humphrey won the dunk contest, adding another title to what I'm sure is a long list of dunk titles. The game was an offensive affair, just like an NBA all-star game, the West outscoring the East as both teams scored in triple digits. The entire weekend was a lot of fun to get to know guys from other teams and represent our respective clubs. It's amazing to me how big the game of basketball is growing in the world today. I never would have thought the game was this big in Asia, but it is certainly one of the biggest rising sports all around the world. The event had a big-time atmosphere and I felt like I was back in the Bradley Center!

This game has taken me to so many places around the world, and this weekend's all-star events in Japan will be a memory I will never forget!

GO MARQUETTE!

Daniel Fitzgerald 08'

Defensive Table: MU 3rd best defense with Otule, 69th best in next eight games, and now 10th best in last four games

2012-01-17T02:05:00.004-06:00

I'm sure I've lost most of your interest by now, but I just had to go back and look at the game-by-game defensive performance to figure out when MU's defensive rating started to improve again. With Chris Otule MU gave up an average of 0.82 points per trip, which even after adjusting for some weak offenses gives them a defensive rating of 0.84 (the points per trip against an average offense). That means that Marquette's defense played as well as the:

- 3rd best defense in the country while Otule was playing,
- the 69th best defense in the country the first 8 games he was out (0.98 per trip, and even after adjusting for tough offenses faced, a 0.94 adjusted rating), and finally,
- the 10th best defense in the country the last 4 games (0.94, but adjusted to 0.87 due to offenses faced).

Four games doesn't a season make, but it appears it took MU a while to figure out the defensive adjustments they'd have to make with Otule no longer having their back, but four straight stellar performances on defense indicates they may have now solved it.

Opponent	Pts Allow	Possess	Raw Def	Adj for Opp
Mount St. Mary's	37	72	0.51	0.59
Norfolk St.	68	84	0.81	0.84
Winthrop	73	71	1.03	1.08
Mississippi	66	80	0.83	0.86
Norfolk St.	57	64	0.89	0.92
Jacksonville	56	68	0.82	0.86
Wisconsin	54	63	0.86	0.77
Ave. with Otule				0.84
Washington	77	72	1.07	0.99
Wisconsin Green Bay	61	77	0.79	0.84
Northern Colorado	72	74	0.97	0.93
Louisiana St.	67	65	1.03	1.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	50	65	0.77	0.78
Vanderbilt	74	70	1.06	0.97
Villanova	77	73	1.05	0.97
Georgetown	73	66	1.11	0.98
1st 8 games w/o				0.94
Syracuse	73	74	0.99	0.83
St. John's	64	70	0.91	0.91
Pittsburgh	57	59	0.97	0.87
Louisville	63	72	0.88	0.85
Last 4 games				0.87

CORRECTION FROM POST BELOW: Tonight Pomeroy calculated Louisville with 72 trips, rather than the 74 I had last night, so I've made that correction.

Pomeroy now has MU as the 28th best offense and the 27th best defense in the country, making MU one of 11 teams in the Top 30 in both offense and defense along with; Syracuse (4 offense, 10 defense), Michigan State (7, 9), Kansas (8, 3), Kentucky (10,6), Baylor (11, 16), Ohio State (12, 1), UNC (2, 12), Wichita State (21, 17), Gtown (23, 15) and St. Louis (27, 20).

MU puts together top 5 DEFENSIVE effort, allowing only 63 points on 74 trips to beat Louisville

2012-01-16T19:45:00.002-06:00

I was bit stunned before writing the previous post to see that Marquette had actually played better defense than offense this year (by a hair) based on the ultimate measure - how many points per trip down the court do you allow? (see www.kenpom.com).

Well, the come from behind win against Louisville was even better defense, as MU allowed only 63 points on 74 trips down the court to - IRONICALLY - win by a reversal of the two numbers, 74-63. Only four defenses in the country are allowing fewer points per trip than the defensive performance MU allowed today:

Rnk	Defense	Pts/Trip
1	Ohio St	0.793
2	Wisconsin	0.813
3	Kansas	0.823
4	Flo State	0.848
5	MU (today only)	0.851

Admittedly Louisville is an average offense without injured Kyle Kuric, but the sharp-shooter is not dominant like he was last year, as he still only gets the ball about 15% of their possessions and has dropped from a Top 10 to barely a Top 200 offensive player.

When looking at how MU shut down the Cardinals offense, they once against used great pressure to end 23.4% of Louisville's trips in turnovers, but perhaps more impressively turned it over without fouling. Louisville's free throw rate of only 15.9% (only 10 free throw attempts vs. 63 field goal attempts) indicate an incredible job of stripping the ball and forcing other turnovers without fouling.

	Lville O	MU Def	Today
Efficiency	1.03	0.91	0.85
eFG%	48.2%	45.6%	46.8%
TO%	21.0%	25.0%	23.4%
OR%	36.2%	34.7%	34.3%
FTR	38.7%	33.5%	15.9%

Once again that effort was needed to stop Louisville's pretty strong offensive rebounding, which would have dominated except for Jae Crowder's 8 defensive rebounds. Along with Crowder's 6 steals and two treys, this keeps him on pace to easly become only the second player in the past decade to hit 160 defensive rebounds and 40 steals while hitting 40 treys in TWO seasons. (thanks for pointing this out College Hoops Journal.)

Carmelo Anthony would have done if for a second year if he hadn't gone NBA, but even if I include him that leaves Jae in pretty elite company of only three players to accomplish the feat assuming he grabs just 56 more defensive rebounds this year:

The Elite Three	Def. Reb	Steals	Treys
Carmelo Anthony 2003	248	55	56
Terrence Williams 2008	208	48	60
Terrence Williams 2009	266	86	68
Jae Crowder 2011	168	48	42
Jae Crowder 2012 (19 games)	104	42	36

In fact, Lazar Hayward is one of only 10 players to do it just once along with Kyle Singler, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Kevin Durant, Wes Johnson, Ryan Gomes, Maarty Leunen and Anthony, Williams and Crowder.

Crowder is also one of the top shot-blockers among all forwards, as Gorgui Dieng learned first hand when Crowder basically did a volleyball spike on his dunk attempt. But I believe the other exciting defensive development today was seeing Jamil Wilson step up defensively, because if he plays like that then MU really does have a potential dominant defensive line-up in Derrick Wilson, Vander Blue, Crowder, Wilson and a much improved DJO.

This line-up can suffocate many many opponents, with the only question being whether or not they can contain great offensive rebounding teams. But Louisville was a very good - though not great - offensive rebounding team, and today was reason for guarded optimism.

1st for Buzz – MU defense now ranked higher than offense, and team is playing well except against big offensive rebounders

2012-01-15T02:39:00.006-06:00

For the first time since Buzz Williams took over, Marquette’s defense is better than its offense. As of now MU has the 31st best offense in the country (1.112 points per trip) and the 28th best defense (0.906 points allowed per trip), and while this may not last, it’s never even been close under Buzz:

Year	Offensive Rank	Defensive Rank
Current	31st	28th
2011	22nd	61st
2010	22nd	57th
2009	9th	51st

For all the complaining about the aggressive style, MUs ability to be the 19th best team at turning opponent’s over (25.0% of opponents’ possessions end in a turnover), has offset the fact that MU is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country (258th of 345 for allowing 34.7% offensive rebounding by opponents).

While every MU starter steals the ball at least 2% of opponents’ trips (Crowder 3.9%, GARDNER 3.2%, Blue 3.1%, Junior/D. Wilson 2.4%/2.6% and DJO 2.0%), once the opponents’ shot is up Crowder is the only strong rebounder –grabbing 19.6% of misses to rank among www.kenpom.com national leaders.

Davante has to be one of the only guys in the country who is more likely to grab a rebound when his team misses than when the opponent misses, and his game sealing rebound against Pitt made him the 15th best offensive rebounder in the country at 16.1% of all MU misses grabbed (to 15.6% of opponents’ misses).

This Achilles Heel showed itself again Saturday when Marquette barely beat a Pitt team that, while having a terrible year, is the best offensive rebounding team in the country.

Since Chris Otule was injured, GAME SCORES calculate that Marquette has played like a ranked team 6 times and like an unranked team 5 times. As this table shows, in almost every case the poor performances have been against great offensive rebounding teams and the good performances have been against poor offensive rebounding teams:

Poor Performances	Off Reb Rnk
Louisiana St.	39
Pittsburgh	1
Vanderbilt	160
Villanova	35
Washington	28
Good Performances	Off Reb Rnk
Georgetown	112
Northern Colorado	139
St. John's	105
Syracuse	13
Wisconsin Green Bay	150
Wisconsin Milwaukee	170

What does this mean for the rest of the season? While Pomeroy’s predicted scores have proven very accurate, it appears likely that MU will not do as well as predicted when up against a strong offensive rebounding team, and vice versa.

Therefore I have laid out the rest of the season with the score Pomeroy currently predicts, followed by the opponents’ rank on the offensive glass. Marquette really needs to go at least 5-2 in the next seven games including a road game against an excellent offensive rebounding team in Villanova, because the five games after that are all against very good offensive rebounding teams that could send MU into a tail spin late.

Opponents	Pomeroy	Off Reb%	Gut on game
Louisville	W, 73-65	59	Slight favorite
at Providence	W, 77-70	42	Slight favorite
South Florida	W, 70-58	99	Double digit favorite
at Villanova	W, 76-72	35	Toss-up
Seton Hall	W, 73-66	114	Solid favorite
at Notre Dame	W, 72-69	266	Solid favorite
at DePaul	W, 89-77	190	Solid favorite
Cincinnati	W, 73-65	43	Slight favorite
at Connecticut	L, 72-71	9	Big underdog
Rutgers	W, 76-63	14	Solid favorite
at West Virginia	L, 74-71	19	Big underdog
at Cincinnati	W, 70-69	43	Slight underdog
Georgetown	W, 70-67	112	Solid favorite

(So Louisville is the 59th best offensive rebounding team in the country, etc., down to Georgetown, who is only the 112th best offensive rebounding team in the country.)
This is not to say that every team can dominate MU on the offensive boards. In fact, the past couple of years MU has struggled to stop opponents’ offensive rebounds early in the season but then been right in the middle of the pack at defensive rebounding in conference play.

After Pitt grabbed 6 of their first 7 misses to start the game for an Offensive Rebounding percentage of 86%, MU adjusted and allowed them to get only 5 of their last 27 misses. However, it appears that when facing a strong offensive rebounding team, MU has to make adjustments to stop them at some level that hurt their overall performance.

Pomeroy correctly predicted our record preseason - and now has MU on pace for 2nd place

2012-01-14T06:16:00.002-06:00

Preseason Big East Player of the Year Ashton Gibbs leads Pitt into the Bradley Center at 1 p.m. CST as the Panthers seek an upset for their FIRST Big East win. Like Dwight Buycks last year, Gibbs has been forced to play out of position at point guard and the Panthers have the worst offense (93.2 points per 100 trips) and worst shooting percentages on both 2-pointers (42.3%) and 3-pointers (22.7%) of any team in Big East play so far.

Marquette is exactly on pace this year - having lost exactly as many games (4) as Pomeroy predicted in the preseaon prediction. A loss to Pitt would be a major blow, while a win could be the second in a 10-game stretch of being the favorites during which an 8-2 mark would keep MU on pace for 2nd place in the Big East.

Focusing on Pomeroy’s predicted conference finish gives by far the clearest picture of where all of the teams stand today. Marquette is 2-2 in conference play – big deal – we’ve played Georgetown and Syracuse to single digits on the road and if we keep playing like this we finish 12-6.

How accurate is Pomeroy? I saved his predictions before the season started, and pulled them back up tonight when a colleague said he really didn’t like the fact that Pomeroy uses a “cumulative” predictor. Here is what he published BEFORE the season started:

Pomeroy Preseason	Prediction
Mount St. Mary's	94%
Norfolk St.	96%
Winthrop	89%
Jacksonville	90%
Wisconsin	28%
Washington	55%
Wisconsin Green Bay	91%
Northern Colorado	93%
Louisiana St.	73%
Wisconsin Milwaukee	89%
Vanderbilt	54%
Villanova	67%
Georgetown	47%
Syracuse	21%
St. John's	85%
Total 11-4 (CORRECT)	1072%

Adding up the percentages gives the best prediction of what a team’s record will be, and in this case they added up to 10.7 wins and 4.3 losses – rounding to the actual record of 11-4 (prior to the season there was no prediction for the two unknown opponents in tournament play, so Marquette is 13-4 overall with those two games not on this list).

Conference predictions even more accurate now; USF win over Seton Hall big
Of course, predictions get even more accurate as more and more games are played, so it is much more important that Pomeroy predicts Marquette will be one of four teams to go 12-6 in conference play to finish in a 2nd place tie behind 16-2 Syracuse.

Cincinnati and Notre Dame are currently tied in 2nd in the conference at 3-1 apiece, but they are projected to finish 10-8 and 9-9 respectively, so we should be more worried about Seton Hall, Georgetown and West Virginia right now, who have much easier schedules and better results to date and are likely to be battling MU for a top spot.

If MU is upset no more than two times in the 10-game stretch that started with the win over St. John's, then MU could pass Cincinnati while the Bearcats are playing at UConn, West Virginia and Rutgers and at home against Syracuse after today’s much easier game against Villanova. Meanwhile Notre Dame gets UConn twice, Syracuse and road games at Seton Hall and Rutgers for their next five. If Cincy and Notre Dame win most of their five in that tough stretch then the prediction will adjust, but right now MU is in better position than either team.

The fact is that right now MU is on course to finish ahead of traditional powers UConn, Louisville and of course Pitt. Things can change, but this is the much better snapshot of the “standings” than just looking at current records:

Team	W	L	To stay on pace
Syracuse	16	2
Seton Hall	12	6	win at Nova Wed
Georgetown	12	6	5 wins in next 6
West Virginia	12	6	win 2 of 3 before Cuse
Marquette	12	6	7 wins in next 9
Cincinnati	10	8	after Nova, 1 of next 4
Connecticut	10	8	win 2 or 3 of 4 before at Gtown
Notre Dame	9	9	2 upsets in next 7 games
South Florida	8	10
Louisville	8	10
Rutgers	7	11
St. John's	6	12
Villanova	6	12
DePaul	5	13
Providence	5	13
Pittsburgh	5	13

So of the four evenly matched teams, the key will be to see if any can beat one of the other three on the road to shoot ahead. Marquette came the closest so far with the narrow loss at Georgetown, while the other two home teams dominated. Now Marquette needs to hold home court against Seton Hall and Georgetown, and try to steal a road upset at West Virginia.

The potential miniconference tie-breakerat Seton Hall 67, West Virginia 48
at Georgetown 73, Marquette 70
at West Virginia 74, Georgetown 62
PredictedJan. 31: at Marquette 73, Seton Hall 66
Feb 21: at Seton Hall 63, Georgetown 62
Feb. 24: at West Virginia 74, Marquette 71
March 3: at Marquette 70, Georgetown 67

Why is Pomeroy’s predictor so much more accurate than a game-by-game approach?
The idea of going by actual game-by-game predicted wins rather than cumulative percentages could be less accurate than flipping a coin to predict overall records.

Here is why. Let's say that a team has an pretty clear edge in it's next six games, a 2-to-1 chance of winning in each of those games. This is the same odds of rolling a 3, 4, 5 or 6 on a single die (a win) instead of rolling a 1 or 2 (a loss).

The suggestion that predictions should be the result of simply assuming wins for every team that is favored over the course of a season would indicated that the team should be predicted to go 6-0 over those games because they are clearly better than all 6 opponents.

There is only an 8% chance that a team goes 6-0 over those games, and a 92% chance that they play "below expectations" if that is the bar. While there is a 66% chance of winning the first game, there is only a 44% chance of winning the first two, a 29% of winning the first 3, etc.

So if someone bets such a team will go 6-0 against a guy who flips a coin and bets they will go 3-3, then the coin-flipper is more likely to prove the better predictor.

But Pomeroy's cumultive total is much more likely to be the most accurate than either going game-by-game or flipping a coin - correctly predicting that a team in this situation will have the greatest chance of going 4-2, though certainly there is also a good chance of going either 5-1 or 3-3 - just not 6-0.

The reason it is NOT immediately obvious that going with game-by-game is such a terrible system is that most teams have games they are favored in and games they are not in any stretch, so it just doesn't hit you that this is what is happening.

Also, I'd refer to my piece earlier in the week where I documented that every year Marquette - and every other team - play a game well below their ability once every six games and play a game well above their ability once every six games, and during the hypothetical 6-game stretch it is very likely they will play one terrible game, and it is very unlikely they will win that game, so game-by-game is terribly flawed and Pomeroy is exactly right.

It's only in cases like Murray State, where their last 11 games are all against teams that are ranked #200 or lower and they have between an 81% and 97% chance of winning, that a game-by-game approach has any chance of being more accurate than the cumulative prediction model Pomeroy uses. There the game-by-game prediction of a 28-0 record is not quite as likely as Pomeroy's prediction of a 27-1 mark, but there you have a fighting chance.

Stop setting unrealistic expectations! 7-2 in next 9 would be strong
This isn't just an academic exercise - this is where so many fans get unfairly down on the team. For example, if you look at Marquette's next 9 games you can say, "Marquette should win EACH of these games." True, we have the edge in all nine matchups. But many fans - and a game-by-game predictor model - misunderstand this to think it means that "Marquette should win these next nine straight to be 23-4."

No they shouldn't. It is VERY unlikely Marquette wins all 9, so at this point the expections are so detached from reality that if the team goes 7-2 during the stretch fans view it as a disappointing stretch because they were upset twice and didn't beat anyone they weren't supposed to beat. 9-0 becomes PAR in fans minds, and even if the team goes undefeated - like the early stretch the Three Amigos had to get to #8 one year, and people don't realize the accomplishment. in fact, MU should lose at least two of those games, and possibly three, and has only a 7% chance of winning all 9, so fans should be happy with 7 of 9 wins, very happy with 8, and unbelievably ecstatic if we win 9 more in a row. It should only be if the team goes 6-3 or worse that fans should be disappointed in the stretch.

So expect to have Marquette upset twice in the next 9 games – and only panic once we’ve been upset for a third time. A 7-2 keeps Marquette on pace for a potential 2nd place finish.

Gardner-ing Tips

2012-01-13T10:35:00.002-06:00

After Davante Gardner's dominant performance against St. John's, I began to wonder if it was an outlier, or the start of a very nice trend. Granted, his career highs in points and rebounds both came along with a career high in minutes, but it seemed to me like had THAT Davante shown up against LSU, Georgetown, and Syracuse, Marquette might have a much better record.

One thing that stood out was St. John's lack of size and depth. That God's Gift Achiuwa is averaging 36.6 minutes per game in St. John's last 10 indicates they don't have any depth in the middle. I decided to analyze Gardner's numbers using Pomeroy's Effective Height ranking. Marquette has played 10 games against top-100 EFR teams and 6 games against sub-100 EFR teams First, the raw data:

	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	REB	AST	STL	TO	MIN
Top-100	35	61	23	30	93	53	7	17	16	211
Sub-100	22	35	24	31	68	41	3	2	4	121

Because of the disparate minutes Gardner played early on and recently, it only seemed fair to compare his numbers on a per-40 minutes basis rather than a per game basis. Here's a the per-40 breakdown:

	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	FT%	PP40	RP40	AP40	SP40	TP40
Top-100	6.6	11.6	57.3	4.4	5.7	76.7	17.6	10.0	1.3	3.2	3.0
Sub-100	7.3	11.6	62.9	7.9	10.2	77.4	22.5	13.6	0.7	0.7	1.3

Looking at this, the stat that jumped out was free throw attempts. Against bigger teams, Gardner is averaging 4.5 fewer FTAs per 40 minutes. His free throw percentage stays constant, so the attempts also explain much of why he averages more points against smaller teams. And while his field goal percentage and rebounds are down a bit, 57.3% and 10.0/40 are still great numbers. In everything else, he actually seems to perform a bit better overall against big opposition.

The 4 top-100 teams that interested me most were Ole Miss, LSU, Georgetown, and Syracuse. Against Ole Miss, Gardner got to the line 9 times on 6 fouls in 40 minutes. Had he played 40 minutes, that projects out to 25.7 free throws in that one game alone. But against LSU, Georgetown, and Syracuse, the three games Marquette lost in which Gardner played enough minutes to have an impact, he shot only 6 free throws in 83 minutes, an average of just 2.9 FTA per 40 minutes. For Marquette to have success against the big, talented teams, they need to have Gardner getting to the line and putting the opposition in foul trouble.

Recently, Marquette radio announcer Steve "The Homer" True mentioned that Gardner's goal is to always get the "and one". Looking at these numbers, it's easy to see why -- when he is getting to the line, he makes Marquette a much better team. When he isn't, they are far more likely to struggle.

Marquette's next 3 games are all against sub-100 EHR teams, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Gardner continue to put up big numbers. But it will be important for him to be aggressive and draw contact after this stretch, because games against big teams like Villanova, Connecticut, West Virginia, Seton Hall, and Georgetown could be the ones that separate Marquette from being top-four or middle-of-the-pack in the Big East. If Gardner can get to the line early and often, Marquette stands a good chance of having success against the types of teams that usually give them trouble. But if he's unable to be effectively aggressive down low, it's possible this team will be carrying the Team Bubble Watch moniker once again come March.

While 1 in 6 games (Norf, LSU, Vandy) are a dud for most teams; Gardner & Mayo step up to remind us this may be a Top 10 team

2012-01-12T00:17:00.010-06:00

I’m not sure the next time you will see four players as dominant across the board as you saw last night when Davante Gardner, Todd Mayo, DJO and Jae Crowder outscored and outrebounded St. John’s by themselves despite playing just over half the minutes (106 of 200). With help from Junior Cadougan scoring on an early trey and drive to help set the stage for his seven assists, the four combined for an effective Field Goal percentage of 75%, the same percent they shot from the line.

STARTERS	MIN	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Davante Gardner, F	34	8	13	0	0	6	8	15	1	0	2	22
Darius Johnson-Odom, G	28	7	11	2	4	4	6	2	6	0	0	20
Jae Crowder, F	23	7	10	1	3	0	0	9	2	4	2	15
Todd Mayo, G	21	5	6	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	12
TOTALS	106	27	40	3	8	12	16	28	9	4	4	69

Perhaps most importantly with Chris Otule out, Gardner showed he could dominate for 34 minutes in the third straight game MU has played like a borderline Top 10 team. This may make the average fan ask how this can be the same team that didn’t look like they belonged in the Top 100 against Norfolk State, LSU or Vanderbilt.

You could have asked the same question about Dwyane Wade’s Final Four team that FIVE TIMES did not look like a Top 100 team based on GAME SCORES of 75 or lower (edged #284 Texas San Antonio 80-68 at home, lost to #32 Notre Dame 71-92, lost to #151 East Carolina 70-73, lost to #69 UAB on neutral court 76-83, lost to Kansas 61-94).

The fact is that on average teams play a terrible game about once every six games, and Marquette has been very close to that ratio every one of the last 10 years – except for when they were much worse in 2004 and 2005. Here is a breakdown of how many times Marquette played like a Top 10 team (Game Score of 90 or higher) and like a non-Top 100 team (75 or lower) in each of the past 10 seasons:

Year	Top 10	%	>Top100	%	Games
2003	17	52%	5	15%	33
2004	5	17%	10	33%	30
2005	5	17%	12	40%	30
2006	7	23%	5	17%	30
2007	10	30%	5	15%	33
2008	16	47%	6	18%	34
2009	11	31%	5	14%	35
2010	11	32%	4	12%	34
2011	13	35%	6	16%	37
2012	7	41%	3	18%	17
Decade	75	32%	61	19%	314

This is why taking the national title is so difficult for any team – you need six wins in a row to take the title, meaning on average you are going to have to win once when you play a terrible game.

The fact is that if Marquette had scored just 2 more points against both Syracuse and St. John’s the last two games, it would have made three straight games in which Marquette played like a Top 10 team, and 9 of 17 for the year, putting them on par with the 2003 team that played like a Top 10 team 17 of 33 outings.

Granted, MU is still not playing at the level they did when they played like the national champion three of their first seven games this year (Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi and Wisconsin). That was the best stretch Marquette has had since they played near the level of a national champion all but the middle game of a five-game stretch in late February 2008. (beat Seton Hall 89-64, Pitt 72-54, St. John’s 73-64, Rutgers 78-48 and Villanova 85-75)

However, if Marquette played near the same level of the last three games for the next six, then they would travel to South Bend with a record of 19-4. Even assuming one of the next six is a dud, MU would very likely be 18-5.

The fact is that while Chris Otule’s defense cannot be replaced, Davante Gardner showed tonight that the offense can make up for it. It may have been good that Jae Crowder and DJO were on the bench in foul trouble so early, because it made both Gardner and Mayo step up and show once again they can take charge on offense, and once DJO and Crowder came back you had one of the truly great combined performances you will ever see by four players on the same night.

The ceiling for this team remains very, very high, so we shouldn’t give up as long as the bad performances continue to happen once every six games, any more than we should see a national championship if the team looks unbeatable once every six games.

Brad Stevens summed up this typical cycle a couple of years ago when he told his players, “Over 30 games, 5 times you will play terribly, 5 times you will be unbeatable. You aren’t that good or that bad. It’s how you play the other 20 games that determine your season.”

Last year Butler kept the ratio, losing six games to teams outside the Top 100 (#166 Evanston, #140 UWM twice, #112 Wright St, #107 Valparaiso and #247 Youngstown State), before winning 14 straight to make their second straight national title game. Marquette is probably due to have two or three more bad performances before the NCAA tournament, but unless it happens more often than that, let’s not give up on this potentially being a very special year.

Five Questions with Rumble in the Garden

2012-01-10T16:38:00.003-06:00

Blogger friend Pico from Rumble In the Garden sat down with Cracked Sidewalks to answer some questions about the Johnnies. His information is insightful and interesting, and will help you better understand tonight's opponent. Both Anonymous Eagle and Cracked Sidewalks provided provided responses to his questions, so go and check those out too.

1. Can you catch the non-fanatic up to speed on what’s going on with Lavin and in-game coaching?

Currently, Steve Lavin continues to recover from his prostate cancer surgery. But he is traveling, doing recruiting and some media appearances. It sounds strange to some fans - and even to me, at times - but it makes sense when you think of Lavin's persona and the rigors of coaching that have driven some to burnout.
Lavin is an energetic fellow, on and off the court, known to fire off calls and texts to media members and players at crazy hours. If he only has a portion of his energy, he could use it on the court; but Mike Dunlap is an excellent coach, and already was very involved in the game coaching decisions. Additionally, this year is much more about on-court and in-game lessons, and Dunlap and Rico Hines are the members of the staff who are stronger on the development side. Lavin's not bad at coaching; but his great ability is his charisma, which is better used at replenishing the program's roster.

Lavin told the LA Times that there's a chance he won't return this season, which is a blow to the players, and to recruiting. But he is expected to return next year fully invigorated and healthy. It's not an ideal situation, but I have no reason to think he's not coming back (and I tend pessimistic).

2. Why have the Johnnies struggled to shoot efficiently, and how confident are you in their ability to shoot well against MU’s poor defensive eFG%?

The Johnnies are young, and that's a lot of it. A number of guys have struggled to convert shots at the rim, most of the team can't shoot well from outside the arc, and a few don't convert well through contact - a little more time in the weight room, a little more time shoring up their mechanics, and there will be some solid scorers on the roster. Right now, the team is best at scoring in transition. In the open court, they are faster and quicker than many if not most teams. Of course, high level basketball is hardly ever played like a wind sprint.

Marquette could come out looking defensively stout against St. John's, who struggled at times with Cincinnati's handsy pressure - Marquette does a bit of the same high-energy flailing arm defense.

BUT.

St. John's loves to run, and Marquette doesn't seem to bother anyone's assist rate... and Marquette's lack of height may make them look a little more like Providence to the Johnnies' eyes. If Marquette turns the ball over, or gives Moe Harkless and Sir'Dominic Pointer a lane in which to drive, things could get very interesting.

3. The wheels appeared to come off for St Johns early this season, has Lavin righted the ship?

To me, the wheels never came off. There are the struggles of trying to enlist a full team in one offseason - for most coaches, that's a task that just can't be done. There was one returnee - Malik Stith - and he's no impact player in the Big East. He's kind of like DePaul's Mike Bizoukas - heady player, tough and game, but...

I expected losses. I'll be happy if they can get to a .500 record. I expected a transfer (though Lindsey's transfer doesn't really make sense for him). And not having two recruits is bad, but one was already my pick to transfer out; the other's a loss.

The ship's not much more right than it was a month ago. The young players are getting time, they're learning, and this team is trying to take the wins they can grab and developing for next year.

The one place where the ship needs some righting is in recruiting. The team needs players, and to have no one (except for an impact transfer, thanks Jamal Branch, for not joining Team Jamal/ Team Texas at Marquette!) coming is a little worrisome. But I bet they'll get players; and with 4 top-100 talents, the team doesn't necessarily need high-level guys to be competitive.

4. Mo Harkless has emerged as a beast on the blocks and former MU target DeAngelo Harrison is pouring in the points? Are they the leaders of this team?

Yes.

D`Angelo powers the team, and I've thought since December that he has a strong chance to win rookie of the year, for his combination of high usage, the ability to get hot from outside (people are attracted by streak shooters, it seems), and an ability to make/ help out on plays all over the court.

Harkless gets his points more quietly, turns the ball over more, and struggles with his jumper. But he's pretty good near the basket and has done an incredible job rebounding for a guy his slim size.

5. What have been the greatest signs of improvement (or not) for the Johnnies during this transition year?

The Johnnies execute their game plans solidly - they don't foul much, they've been okay at not turning the ball over, and none of the big men have been in much foul trouble, which is incredible, because they're not very big. That's the mark of a team that listens and absorbs solidly. There's speed and ability when they're in transition.

By player, there are lots of signs. Harkless can compete on the glass. Sometimes, he uncorks a move that's straight up "next level" - like a shot fake from the free throw line and a dribble later, he's at the rim. He has an array of shots that aren't falling yet, but look pretty good.

Meanwhile, Harrison can play either guard spot. And while he needs a little more consistency, he can get hot in transition off the dribble, draw fouls, catch-and-shoot from the outside, and he works hard for his shots.

God'sGift Achiuwa has some nice moments in the paint and good quickness; he doesn't leap high enough to be a beast inside, his timing's not excellent, and his handle is loose when he tries to play outside-in, but he holds his own.

Dom Pointer is offensively reluctant, but can attack the rim and has a jumper (developing). His defense is bothersome at all five positions. Amir Garrett is long and is getting used to D1 play after being ineligible until December, but he will take on ballhandlers at the top of the zone. Those guys don't give up.

Phil Greene has some quickness, though he's a little exposed right now as the point guard; I can see him becoming better/ more competent.

Despite losses, 2 best performances since Otule injury a great sign

2012-01-07T20:17:00.007-06:00

While the two losses this week will almost certainly drop Marquette out of the Top 25, the two strong performances broke a miserable 7-game stretch since Chris Otule was injured. As the graph of Game Scores (Margin of victory/defeat + Opponent + or - for home or away), Marquette played like a Top 10 team (90 or higher) six of seven games with Otule, including playing like a national champion (100 or higher) in three of those games.

In the first seven games without Otule, Marquette played like a team that did not belong in the top 100 twice (LSU and Vandy) and barely played like a Top 25 team at all during any of the games. That changed this week when Marquette played like a Top 10 team (90 or higher) at Georgetown, and like a solid Top 25 team at Syracuse. The two games also offer hope because these were by far the toughest two games of the season, AND they were against two of the tallent five teams in the country.

While not returning to early season form, it appeared MU was starting to figure out how to win games without the 6-foot-11 shotblocker who, despite his excellent defense, should not account for the team being 10 to 20 points worse in the first 7 games without him.

The encouraging signs this week include:

Vander Blue showing no fear with a desperately needed 3-pointer in a day that included 9 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists against the No. 1 team in the country.

Crowder and Gardner scoring 24 points while taking just 16 shots against the Syracuse trees.

Junior and DJO both going to the hoop fearlessly for 10 and 19.

On the downsiide, MU could have beaten a #1 team for the second time in history with any kind of 3-point shooting (their season average on 26 shots would have won), or bench scoring (Jamil wilson and Todd Mayo both had 4 rebounds, but the bench had 4 points in 45 minutes).

I have been made fun of in the past for complementing the team for keeping it within single digits against great teams, but these performances were much more impressive than the very weak performances against Villanova and Washington. If MU plays like this week the rest of the Big East season, they could quickly be back on track for 10 or 12 Big East wins again and a solid seed.

The Season So Far In One Picture

2012-01-06T11:56:00.000-06:00

A few years ago I did a similar "DOOMED!!!!" post and then the season promptly turned itself around. I really hope to be just as wrong with this one.

The four columns in the picture below are the difference between how well Marquette was predicted to do and how well they actually did in the every game so far. There's a column for Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, eFG%, and def eFG%. To understand better, against Winthrop we were predicted to have an efficiency of 110.7 but actually got 133.2 for a positive delta of 22.5.

Each column has been color coded to reflect doing better or worse than expected. In that situation, Winthrop was 22.5 better than expected offensively, but 17.8 worse than expected defensively.

There’s not a lot of green or even upward arrows lately.

How much of this decline can be chalked up to the absence of Otule? Unfortunately, I still don't believe there is a statistically significant relationship between Otule's absence and any of the four columns listed above. Feel free to go here for the additional details. However, the average Pomeroy ranking of opponents was 185 when Otule was on the court, and it is 90 while he's been gone. It's much more likely that MU has stumbled because our competition is getting better.

In fact, even if you look back at even our wins against “so called good teams” or our losses against “good teams”, many are not showing up that way. Somehow, the unbeatable Kohl Center has three home losses for Wisconsin already this year. Washington lost last night to Colorado by 20 points. Norfolk State has some absolute whopper losses to nobody. LSU lost to Coastal Carolina…Vandy has some bad losses. Right now, Marquette probably just isn't that good.

Finally, in case anyone was wondering, there are the predictions for this weekend.

MU Efficiency - 94.9
Syracuse Efficiency - 105.6
MU eFG% - 44.9
MU def eFG% - 49.9

Anyone want to take the under on the defensive eFG%? Yeah, me either.

Improved Guard Play Will Be Key To Reversing Trends

2012-01-04T09:02:00.002-06:00

Tonight, Marquette begins a difficult two-game stretch of road games. Unfortunately, despite the recent conference opening win over Villanova, the Warriors have been slumping. This chart shows the cumulative total of how many points Marquette has been winning (or losing) by since the second Norfolk State game.

However, that chart just shows Marquette plateauing, mostly due to two rough losses. There is a definite slump on the current efficiency trends. Below is a five-game moving average of Marquette's efficiency (offensive and defensive) since the NFSU #2.

Both our offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency are getting worse as the season goes along. Part of this can be chalked up to poor recent outings. However, consider that Marquette hasn't been strong offensively almost the entire month of December (Northern Colorado is the exception). That the defensive efficiency is getting worse is not really a surprise (unfortunately), but the offensive trend is a real concern. After all, offense has never been an issue under Buzz.

When we look at the same trends of the top three players on Marquette (Jae, DJO, and Gardner), their net contributions are still continuing to trend mostly upwards. DJO has also had a stretch of slumping/plateauing. However, it is the play of the remaining guards that tells a different story.

Junior's contributions float along sideways and are fairly varied. Lately, his net contributions have been either really good or really bad on the court. It is the current trends of Vander Blue and Todd Mayo that are concerning. After a very strong start to the season for both players, their net contributions on the court are both trending negative, somewhat in mirror to the overall team trends.

After the year that Vander had last year, this is especially reason to worry. He likewise started the year strong and struggled mightily at the end. Mayo was sensational to open the season, but he remains a freshman. It would be the exception for Todd to not have struggles this year. Regardless of what happens, we will almost certainly need their overall contributions to improve for Marquette to get better. Improved guard play tonight and this weekend appears to be the key.

An early look at NCAA possibilities.

2012-01-02T21:05:00.004-06:00

As the message boards are starting to buzz with talk about how many bids the Big East teams may receive, it is interesting to note this observation:
Since expansion in 2006, there have been zero Big East teams with more than four non-conference losses that were subsequently invited to the NCAA tournament.
Bad news for the league is that we have five conference teams that have already tallied five non-con losses: Notre Dame, Villanova, Rutgers, South Florida and St. Johns. If history is any indication, these teams are likely out of the race for an NCAA bid. And with the possible exception of Rutgers' win over Florida--there isn't much evidence to date that one can use to mount a counter-argument.

Strip away the reputation of Villanova and Notre Dame based on prior Big East success and you find that there are only 3 wins over current RPI* top 100 teams: the aforementioned Rutgers upset of Florida, USF's win over #65 Cleveland State and St. Johns win over #99 Lehigh. VU and ND have a combined zero non-conference victories over a current top 100 RPI opponent.

In the past, the league separated itself into a handful of elite teams, and handful of laggards, and bunch of teams in the middle fighting for fan NCAA bid. It appears the same is happening this year as well.

In: UConn, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse

Some have questioned whether UL belongs up here, but they have more top 50 RPI wins than anyone in the league. UConn has not been truly tested yet (and even suffered an upset at the hand of UCF). Some might question MU given the losses to Vanderbilt and LSU. Nonetheless, there seems to be consensus based on non-conference play that these are the top five teams in the conference, and Syracuse stands alone as the team to beat.

This is not to say that these teams can't play their way out of the tournament. However, each of them have the talent and have demonstrated a level of play which separates them from the rest of the league.

Bubble: Pitt, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, West Virginia

Not all four of these teams will make the tournament. Most likely, two of them, perhaps with a greater chance of three making it (8 total bids) than one (6 total bids). But each of them still has some work to do.

Pittsburgh: Ordinarily, one would be writing off the tournament possibilities for a team with the body of work that Pitt has put forth to date. However, as long as Tray Woodall has a chance to return, the Panthers remain alive if they put together some strong wins once he returns.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats haven't distinguished themselves in non-conference play (leading to imponderables like: which is uglier--the brawl against Xavier or the loss to Presbyterian?). UC has a chance to separate themselves from the bottom over the next two weeks. 3 of their next four games are at home against ND, Villanova and St. Johns.
Seton Hall is the 2012 version of 2011 Cincinnati. Nice non-conference record, but they will remain suspect until they beat someone of note. The blowout loss to Syracuse doesn't do it, but the blowout win over WVU might be an indication that SHU is at the head of the middle of the pack. However, questions of legitimacy will dog the Pirates unless they pull an upset over Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, UConn or Georgetown.
West Virginia gives you just enough good (wins over K-State, Missouri State and Miami) to think they're bordering on the upper-division. But they lost their two best chances for a quality non-con win losing to Mississippi State and Baylor, and the loss to Seton Hall puts them at an early disadvantage in the middle.

Out: Notre Dame, Villanova, Rutgers, USF, St. Johns, Providence, DePaul

Some will argue that ND or Villanova still have a chance to make the tournament despite 5 non-conference losses. However, history suggests that if a team hasn't won in non-conference play, its a pretty good indication that they won't be able to win in Big East play either. If a team can't beat teams like Georgia, Maryland, St. Louis or St. Joseph's, they're going to have a hard time against WVU or Cincinnati (not to mention Marquette, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown or Louisville).

More importantly, aside from Rutgers, none of these teams have compelling non-conference victories that would cause the committee to fight for them come Selection Sunday. Absent multiple upsets of the top teams in the league, one simply can't make the case for ND, VIllanova, and to a lesser extent PC, DePaul, St. Johns, Rutgers or USF).

*RPI source: Statsheet.com

Closing Time

2012-01-02T16:14:00.005-06:00

Welcome back, Dr. Blackheart. Following the Warriors' victory over the Villanova Wildcats to start the Big East season, the Good Doctor hit the keyboard to share his thoughts on the conference opener -- specifically the excruciating close.

****************************************

At the of last season, I did a guest piece on late game free throw shooting, where it was pointed out that MU shot 56% in the last four minutes of BE play at the free throw line, despite shooting 73% for the other ninety percent of the game. MU Big East opponents shot nearly 80% at crunch time, in comparison.

While I loved MU's play at home against Villanova up till the final 4:00 mark where MU led comfortably 72-61, and with MU in the double bonus at the line, I did not (nor did any fan) like the ensuing action. (I apologize for the negative fan rant upfront, but this same story is a tough rerun to watch). Let's recap the final four minutes:

MU shot 9-16 on free throws, or a very familiar 56%.
MU committed three turnovers, leading (luckily for MU) to two Nova points (this could have been up to eight points).
Although not technically a turnover, MU attempted a trey with 24 seconds left on the shot clock that was directly turned around--eight seconds later--into a made three point shot on the other end. If MU just holds the ball and lets the shot clock expire before Nova scores, that is 32 seconds burnt. More likely, Nova fouls and MU gets the chance at points and further erodes Nova.
MU stopped the clock for Nova with four fouls on their own, where Nova shot 7 for 8 at the charity stripe, or 87.5%. Again, this opponent FT% sounds very familiar to last season.
So, MU gave Nova back eight possessions on turnovers, fouls and an ill-advised shot (not even counting the missed MU free throws). Nova was able to score 12 points off these. Two key MU rebounders also fouled out during this time.
Further, between the missed Mayo three that was turned around and the Nova made free throws, Nova was able to score 10 points in a total of 8 seconds.
MU's full court, all-out pressure defense did cause five Nova turnovers. However, MU did not stop any of the four Nova possessions where they attempted field goals (made first shot or put backs on offensive rebounds--as our rebounders had fouled out), and MU stopped the clock with four fouls of their own as they scrambled. (Note: Jay Wright only had two timeouts to use in the final 4:00).
While the pressure mistakes by underclassmen are very understandable, our senior leaders committed three fouls, had two turnovers and went 1-2 on free throws. Who is this year's JFB? Is it Jae Crowder like against Washington? Is it Todd Mayo?
From the 4:00 minute mark to 1:37, MU scored one point. Buzz used a 30 second time out at 1:37 to settle the troops, finally. After that point, Nova outscored MU only 9-8, with that last second meaningless tip-in giving Nova the advantage. Still, MU was 8-12 on FT's and had two fouls after that time out, but no had turnovers.

Great win. Great game preparation and strategy. Great bounce back. A Big East win is always prized and should always be cherished. However, this end of game approach continues to need focus. The opponent here is the time clock, whether playing the talent level of a Norfolk State or a Big East talent of Villanova. Frankly, this is a "coachable moment" that should be practiced time and again.

December Non-Conference Report

2012-01-01T17:03:00.002-06:00

Time to take another look at our non-conference opponents, this time for the month of December. A couple teams took big jumps in their projections, with Norfolk State now projecting as a top-100 RPI team and LSU getting close to cracking the top-50, largely at Marquette's expense. Unfortunately, poor months for Mount St. Mary's, Winthrop, and Jacksonville have all three now projecting as sub-280 teams.

Mount St. Mary's: The Mountaineers broke a 9-game losing streak with a win over American, and almost made it two in a row before falling 65-64 to Albany. Currently Marquette's biggest RPI drag, MSM will have chances to right the ship in January as they play 5 sub-200 kenpom opponents.

Norfolk State: Two wins over the Spartans are starting to look like a blessing. They don't have a bad loss and are favored to win 7 of 9 in January. Right now they look like a solid bet to win the MEAC.

Winthrop: The Eagles could have had a banner month, but they lost four games in which they were outscored by a total of 7 points in regulation. Conference play should be a blessing -- they are favored to win 6 of 9 games they play in January.

Mississippi: The Rebs started December well, tallying wins at high-majors DePaul and Penn State. Unfortunately, they slumped to 3 straight defeats away from home against top-100 kenpom opponents to close the year. They have one last tune-up against SMU before conference play starts.

Jacksonville: The Dolphins had a month to forget, losing all 6 (5 on the road). Their projected RPI is dipping dangerously close to 300. Hopefully January starts off better -- they play 4 of 6 at home before a four-game road-trip to close the month.

Wisconsin: The Badgers cruised to a 6-0 start before losing at home to Iowa, a game that Pomeroy gave them a 96.4% chance of winning. They are still kenpom's top team, but if they're struggling with the Hawkeyes, this win might lose some of its luster by Selection Sunday.

Washington: The Huskies sputtered through December, losing 4 of 5 to start the month. They seem to have righted the ship, and started 2-0 in Pac-12 play. They play 4 games at home in January, and are favored in 3 of 4 they play on the road. If they play to their potential, Washington could still be a very good win.

Green Bay: Brian Wardle's club has had its ups and downs, but while late-year losses to Butler and Valpo are discouraging, a combined margin of 7 points on the road indicates good things going forward. January will be very telling as they get into the meat of the Horizon schedule.

Northern Colorado: The Bears played a tough schedule, but managed to get a win over Northern Arizona in their conference opener. They are favored in 7 of 8 games in January, so there's still time for this team to turn it around and possibly challenge for an automatic bid to the NCAAs come March.

LSU: The Tigers had a great month...for Marquette fans, TOO great of a month, since their biggest win was over the Warriors. They have one last non-con tuneup at home against Virginia to prove that the win over MU wasn't a fluke. They'll be underdogs in 6 of 8 games in January, so now is the time for LSU to prove whether or not they are for real.

Milwaukee: With under 2 minutes to play at the Hinkle Fieldhouse, UW-M seemed to be on their way to a 4-0 Horizon start. Instead, Butler came back and the Panthers dropped their first conference game. It was an up and down month for the Panthers, but now that conference play has started they can prove they are a legitimate conference contender. UW-M will be favorites in 8 of 9 games in January and are projecting as a top-100 RPI team again.

Vanderbilt: Vandy got their signature win on the road at Marquette, and now will be favored in 8 of 9 games in January. Their early-season slump seems to be forgotten, and Vandy certainly has the talent to still contend in the SEC, if they truly have their act together.

	December W-L	Overall Record	Current RPI	Projected RPI	kenpom Rating	Best Win	Worst Loss
Mt St Mary's	1-7	2-11	307	316	305	237 American	252 Sav St
Norfolk St	5-2	8-4	37	74	195	186 Long Island	81 Illinois St
Winthrop	2-5	2-10	266	284	236	220 Presbyterian	242 Gardner Webb
Mississippi	4-3	9-4	42	23	105	150 Penn St	71 Dayton
Norfolk St	5-2	8-4	37	74	195	186 Long Island	81 Illinois St
Jacksonville	0-6	2-10	310	298	240	(None)	236 Winthrop
Wisconsin	6-2	12-3	50	19	1	21 UNLV	96 Iowa
Washington	4-4	8-5	85	89	56	67 Oregon St	108 Nevada
Green Bay	3-4	4-8	127	176	169	121 Idaho	159 Valpo
N Colorado	1-3	3-7	160	170	176	300 N Arizona	101 Colorado St
LSU	6-0	10-3	69	53	88	18 Marquette	(None)
Milwaukee	5-4	9-5	82	99	86	152 DePaul	118 Butler
Vanderbilt	4-2	9-4	30	36	40	18 Marquette	110 Indiana St
Marquette	5-2	11-2	20	7	18	1 Wisconsin	88 LSU

Big East kickoff at Noon - top 20 Big East players and MU picked to finish top 4 with conference slumping

2012-01-01T10:27:00.004-06:00

Team	Proj W	Proj L	Trend in Pomeroy	Top 20 BE players
Syracuse	15	3	#4 steady all year	5, Kris Joseph 6-f-7; 7, James Southerland 6-f-8; 8, Dion Waiters 6-f-4; 12, Scoop Jardine 6-f-2; 18, Brandon Triche 6-f-4
Georgetown	14	4	rose from #50 preseason to #13	10, Henry Sims 6-f-10; 13, Otto Porter 6-f-8; 14, Jason Clark 6-f-2
Marquette	12	6	slid from #6 to #18 since Dec. 4	2, Jae Crowder 6-f-6; 20, Darius Johnson-Odom
Connecticut	11	7	slid from #6 preseason to #28	4, Shabazz Napier 6-f-0; 6, Jeremy Lamb 6-f-5
Louisville	11	7	slid from #6 Dec. 3 to #17	9, Gorgui Dieng 6-f-10; 15, Kyle Kuric 6-f-4; 16, Chris Smith 6-f-2
Seton Hall	10	8	rose from #77 preseason to #42	3, Herb Pope 6-f-8; 11, Fuquan Edwin 6-f-6
West Virginia	10	8	#37 steady all year	1, Kevin Jones 6-f-8
Cincinnati	9	9	slid from #26 Nov. 16 to #52	17, Sean Kilpatrick 6-f-4
Notre Dame	9	9	steady #65 since Abromaitis inj.	None (Abromaitis out for year)
Pittsburgh	9	9	slid from #7 preseason to #50	None (Ashton Gibbs can't play PG)
Villanova	8	10	slid from #33 Nov. 16 to #64	None
Rutgers	6	12	steady #124, just upset #11 Flor.	None
South Florida	5	13	dropped from #86 preseason to #137	None
St. John's	5	13	dropped from #94 Nov. 10 to #144	None
DePaul	4	14	steady #152	19, Brandon Young 6-f-3
Providence	4	14	dropped #111 preseason to #139	None

As strange as it sounds after getting blown out by Vanderbilt at home and not playing like a Top 25 team since Chris Otule was hurt, Marquette enters Big East play with their best chance ever at a Top Four finish in the Big East and the resultant double bye in the tournament.

While Marquette has struggled, the Big East has been in free fall. While the good news is that means that MU could finish very high in the conference, the bad news is an 11th place finish this year would result in a trip to the NIT.

Today’s Noon opponent, Villanova, has fallen from #33 early in the season to #64 in Pomeroy, while Marquette is one of three Big East teams (UConn and Louisville) to peak at #6 at one point this season before dropping more than 10 spots, as you can see from the title.

Villanova does have two of the Top 35 players in Maalik Waynes (6-foot-2) and Mouphtaou (6-foot-10), but for perspective so are Vander Blue and Davante Gardner, and Todd Mayo would be with a few more minutes played.

The teams projected to finish in the Top 5 spots this year with 11 or more Big East wins all have at least two of the Top 20 players in the conference.

Jae Crowder has been the 2nd best player in the conference, behind only West Virginia’s Kevin Jones, and DJO has been the 20th best Big East player so far. While that may not sound that great, remember that DJO was barely one of the 50 best players in non-conference play last year before dominating Big East opponents all year. In the best case, DJO explodes again in conference play, and Crowder stays steady this year.

Even when Jae Crowder has a terrible night like in his 0 for 7 shooting start against Vandy, by the end of the game he has drawn a half dozen fouls including charges on big men, leads the team with 4 assists, grabs 7 offensive rebounds going up against two 6-foot-11 players with no help from a center. When that is one of your terrible games, you can see why he is among the nation’s best few players.
The win today is crucial though, because Marquette next plays the only two conference games that look almost unwinnable.

Syracuse has five of the best 18 players in the conference, and Georgetown has three of the top 14 players and a ton of height – which has proven a problem for Marquette. With both those games being on the road, a loss today would almost guaranty an 0-3 start. However, even though a win today will probably just leave Marquette 1-2 in a week, that could be enough to have a very good chance about a Top 4 finish.

While Pomeroy picks MU to finish 12-6 behind only Syracuse and Georgetown, UConn seems to be doing just enough to win, so we assume they can turn it on. Certainly other teams could beat MU, but Louisville is also sliding, and Jones is having to do it all for West Virginia.

Seton Hall is the only team besides Georgetown that is improving, and Cincinnati certainly could rebound with all of their players suspended from the Xavier fight back soon.

However, Ashton Gibbs is having a lot of trouble playing point guard, and the rest of the Big East is really struggling even if MU doesn’t get back to early season form.

Blogger says Vandy with Ezeli his top pick to stay within single digits or win; MU must leverage defensive and bench superiority

2011-12-28T22:45:00.007-06:00

A look at the match-ups tonight shows that with the return of 6-foot-11 Festus Ezeli against Marquette, the starting squads are virtually even offensively and Vanderbilt is either 2- or 3-inches taller at every position. That combination has one blogger saying his surest college hoops pick is Vanderbilt staying within single digits or winning.

Here is a match-up player-by-player of the Value Add (% of points added to offense), Defensive Subtract (% of opponent points stopped) and the player’s total value as a combination of these two. I go through the starters first, from tallest to smallest, then the reserves in the same order.

No.	Name	Ht.	Off	Def	Tot	Name	Ht.	Off	Def	Tot
3	Festus Ezeli ***	6-f-11	3.6	0.2	3.8	Davante Gardner	6-f-8	3.5	1.2	4.7
5	Lance Goulbourne	6-f-8	1.0	1.9	2.9	Jae Crowder	6-f-6	6.2	3.2	9.4
44	Jeffery Taylor	6-f-7	4.0	1.0	5.0	Vander Blue	6-f-4	1.9	2.1	3.9
23	John Jenkins	6-f-4	5.2	0.0	5.2	Darius J-O	6-f-2	4.2	1.0	5.1
1	Brad Tinsley	6-f-3	2.3	0.0	2.3	Junior Cadougan	6-f-1	1.3	0.4	1.7
	Starters Total		16.1	3.2	19.2	MU total		17.0	7.8	24.9
33	Steve Tchiengang	6-f-9	0.4	0.3	0.7	Chris Otule **	6-f-11	0.0	2.3	2.3
34	Shelby Moates	6-f-8	0.0	0.0	0.0	Jamil Wilson	6-f-7	1.2	0.6	1.8
45	Rod Odom	6-f-9	0.0	0.0	0.0	Jamail Jones	6-f-6	0.0	0.6	0.6
2	Kedren Johnson	6-f-4	0.0	0.0	0.0	Juan Anderson	6-f-6	0.0	0.0	0.0
24	Dai-Jon Parker	6-f-3	0.0	0.0	0.0	Todd Mayo	6-f-3	1.9	0.4	2.3
11	Kyle Fuller	6-f-1	0.0	0.1	0.1	Derrick Wilson	6-f-0	0.0	0.3	0.3
	Reserves Total		0.4	0.4	0.8	MU total		3.1	4.1	7.2

*** Last year’s figures for Ezeli and projected totals for Otule over 12 games; some numbers appear 0.1 off due to rounding

In the preseason projections, Vanderbilt actually had the highest rated offense in the country with five returning starters from the 13th best offense in the country last year (116.5 points per 100 trips). Even though they haven’t quite lived up to expectations, if you add the 3.6% Ezeli was adding from last year, then the starting five are adding 16.1% this year (a 116.1 per 100 trips). Combined with the height advantage, the team’s excellent shooting (particularly on two-point shots), and the fact that this team took Xavier (before the meltdown) and Louisville (on the road) into overtime WITHOUT Ezeli, Vanderbilt does look like a big threat.

However, there is good news when you look at the rest of the table.
First of all, Marquette’s starting five actually has put up slightly better offensive numbers, even with Ezeli on the court, at 17.0% for their starting five. While John Jenkins has been one of the best offensive players in the country (5.2% Value Add), and Jeffrey Taylor has been almost as good (4.0%) they are slightly behind Marquette’s top two offensive players to date (Crowder 6.2% and DJO 4.2%). Ezeli’s was almost exactly as valuable last year as Gardner has been this year (3.6% to 3.5%). Neither Goulbourne or Blue have had a big impact offensively (1.0% to 1.9%), and Brad Tinsley has been only a little better than Cadougan (2.3% to 1.3%), though if Tinsley returns to last year’s offensive form he would give Vandy the overall edge offensively.

MU must leverage defense and bench to win

So if Tinsley heats up, perhaps Vandy has a better offense overall. However, when we look at the defense and the bench, Marquette has a huge edge that must be leveraged to pull out a win if it gets close (or preferably to give MU a little breathing room).

Marquette has had three fantastic defenders this year, though obviously we assume one of them will still be on the bench at least for a while. When Otule has been on the court he erases an extra 1.7% of opponents’ points that the average shotblocker as part of his overall 2.3% of opponents’ points erased. When Blue is on the court he erases 1.8% more of opponents’ points via the steal than the average ball stealer. And finally Crowder is among leaders in blocked shots (0.3% of points erased beyond average), steals ( 1.3% erased) and defensive rebounding (1.8% erased) to be the most effective overall defender with 3.2% of opponents erased in all of Marquette games (the first three totals are while he is on the court, while the cumulative is for the entire game, thus lower than the total).

As covered in the column on deriving defensive value this summer, there are limitations beyond that. Clearly Derrick Wilson is a much better defender than Davante Gardner because he forces many more non-steal turnovers and pressures opponents out of good spots, but since the NCAA doesn’t keep track of those two stats, we have to give all five players on the court equal 0.2 stops, or buckets allowed, when there is no steal or block. Therefore Davante’s statistical rating is a little better than Derrick’s just based on the fact that he actually is one of the top ball stealers in the country so far (2.9% of opponents’ trips Davante has stolen the ball compared to 2.1% for Derrick, even though his overall defense obviously is not.

But overall, you can see that every Marquette player off the bench adds value – Anderson just doesn’t have enough minutes yet to register – while Vanderbilt’s subs have produced virtually nothing to date. The defense has been much better throughout all 11 players since last year, and Todd Mayo and Jamil Wilson have produced a ton of additional offensive (1.9% and 1.2%) despite playing only 50% and 41% of the minutes respectively.

Certainly Vanderbilt comes in with a chance to show they are an elite team now that they are back at full strength with a huge road win in the Bradley Center. Unfortunately Marquette has little to gain and a lot to lose with a home loss, so they need to use superior defense and depth to hold serve and get a win.

This does not mean that Marquette necessarily needs a low-scoring game to win, only that the defense has to contain the explosive Vandy offense to create baskets at the other end.

As a reference for those interested who didn’t see the initial pieces, here are the links to how the Offensive Stat (Value Add) and Defensive Stat (Defense Sub) are calculated.

Holidays in Japan

2011-12-26T07:33:00.009-06:00

We've just wrapped up the first part of the season, and have a few days off along with the All-Star weekend coming up. We just finished playing ten weekends straight of back to back Saturday-Sunday games and I could certainly use a break to recharge. Usually, overseas players always look forward to getting a week to ten days to go home to the states for the holidays. Unfortunately, we played games on Christmas Eve and Christmas day this year. Japan doesn't really celebrate Christmas like we do, so it's been quite a different holiday season this year for my wife and I. We did however, get to spend it with a great friend and fellow former Marquette Golden Eagle, Trend Blackledge. Trend plays for Osaka Evessa, and it was great to match up against him on the floor and grab some grub afterwards. We didn't get the traditional Christmas meal, but we certainly enjoyed great american food at the Hard Rock Cafe in downtown Osaka.

The Sendai 89ers are sitting at 11-11 now after a rough stretch, losing 4 straight. The club just released one of our four americans, and coach just put in a whole new offense. So we've been struggling a bit because of all the change. American players being replaced during the season is a common occurrence in overseas leagues. You really can be fired for any reason, just the nature of the business. That does make it tough for the team to gel when players are being funneled in an out, but you've got to stay professional and just do your job. Right now we've got a true 7 foot center, a strong slashing wingman, and yours truly, a 3/4 shooter for americans. Along with our hard-working japanese players, I'm confident the team can band together and make a long run in the playoffs.

All-Star weekend is in a week, and we have three 89ers involved in the festivities. Our japanese point guard is loved by the city, and was tops in the fan voting in the league. We also have the two-time defending slam dunk champion on our squad, who is also japanese. He is especially known for his showmanship and costumes, so I'm excited to see it live this year!

I'm the third representative for Sendai, elected to participate in the 3-point contest. I lead the league in the category so far, so I hope to represent the 89ers well. Also, Trend Blackledge is in the dunk contest as well, so we hope for a Marquette sweep! He'll have some tough competition though, as John "Helicoptor" Humphrey is the favorite.

I'm still getting used to the food here, trying a lot of foods I never would have guessed I'd put in my mouth. My wife enjoys sushi and seafood, so I've certainly expanded my horizons lately. Some of these include fish eggs, eel, octopus, squid, tuna with raw egg yoke, and fried whale. Not exactly like training table back at Marquette Union!

I have been trying to catch every Marquette game I can online, even if that means getting up extra early the next day here to catch last night's game at home. I missed the LSU loss, and turns out I'm glad I did. I hope Golden Eagle Nation isn't panicking too much over our first loss, even though it was one we shouldn't have given away. Basketball is a game of mistakes, so I hope we are on the right track towards fixing ours. I'd like to give a big congratulations to all our Marquette guys who have finally begun their season in the NBA, its about time! Especially, to Lazar and Steve. Good luck with your new teams!

GO MARQUETTE!

Daniel Fitzgerald '08

1st Value Add Top 100 of 2012 points to Jae Crowder as All-American

2011-12-23T04:00:00.004-06:00

With Marquette beating it's last mid-major opponent of the season last night, with a 64-50 win over UW-Milwaukee (see story here), I thought it would be a good time to run the first calculations of the best players in the country to prepare for Vanderbilt and the entire Big East.

I know most of you don’t follow us as much in the offseason, but NBC Sports, ESPN and Sports Illustrated picked up on pieces I wrote outlining the 8 different things a player does to help his team win and then the Value Add system to measure exactly how valuable all 3500 players were to their teams. You can click any of the links above for those referencs. The explanation of how you can precisely measure a player’s offensive Value Add appeared here.

Jae Crowder has already been named the top player in the country one week by NBC Sports, and running the 1st Value Add calculations of the year shows him as the 14th best offensive player in the country so far this year, and as an overall clear 1st or 2nd team All-American choice.

Value Add shows that Crowder has added 6.5% to Marquette’s overall scoring this year. That means if someone else had to fill his shoes this year, Marquette would be averaging 76.7 points a game instead of 81.7 points a game. Even though that is the 14th best total in the country, most fans never seem to think five points sounds like that big an impact, but even a player who makes a team two points better has a huge impact.

CROWDER COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 27-4 and 18-13
For argument’s sake, let’s assume that Marquette’s scores for the rest of the season were all exactly what Pomeroy predicts. Marquette would finish 27-4. Now if Marquette had scored five points less in each game because Crowder wasn’t on the team, that would turn nine wins into losses (2nd game vs. Norfolk State, Washington, Louisville, at Villanova, at Notre Dame, at UConn, at WVU, at Cincinnati, Georgetown)- so Marquette would finish 18-13 instead of 27-4.

We can’t measure defense as precisely, but there are four defensive stats in Pomeroy. Crowder and Indiana’s Cody Zeller are the only top 20 offensive players who are also among Pomeroy’s leaders in all three individual defensive stats (defensive rebounds, blocked shots and steals). On the table below I listed any of the three on which a player was among Pomeroy's leaders, and I also listed the 4th stat, the team defensive ranking (from 1st to 345th best) for points allowed per trip against an average offense.

Damian Lillard, Zack Rosen, Nate Wolters, Ryan Broekhoff and Andre Jones are adding a lot of points, but they are not among the top 100 overall players in the country because they are part of defenses that don’t even rank in the top 150 of the country. Only Doron Lamb (Kentucky, 5th), Mike Scott (Virginia, 9th) and Cody Zeller (Indiana, 24th) play for defenses better than the Marquette defense of which Crowder is a part (29th best defense in points allowed per trip, adjusted for opponents’ strength).

TOP 20 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS 2011-2012


Rk	Fname	Lname	Team	Ht	Value Add	Defensive Stats
1	Damian	Lillard	Weber St.	6-f-2	11.0%	245th, Reb
2	Zack	Rosen	Penn	6-f-1	8.6%	187th
3	Marcus	Denmon	Missouri	6-f-3	7.5%	43rd, Stl
4	Kevin	Jones	W. VA	6-f-8	7.3%	44th, Blk, Reb
5	Steven	Pledger	Oklahoma	6-f-4	7.3%	96th, Stl
6	Isaiah	Canaan	Murray St.	6-f-0	7.3%	71st, Stl
7	Kenny	Boynton	Florida	6-f-2	7.2%	60th
8	Will	Barton	Memphis	6-f-6	7.1%	77th, Reb
9	Doug	McDermott	Creigh	6-f-7	7.1%	144th, Reb
10	Mike	Scott	Virginia	6-f-8	7.1%	9th, Reb
11	Doron	Lamb	Kentucky	6-f-4	6.8%	5th
12	Jarrod	Jones	Ball St.	6-f-9	6.7%	91st, Def, Blk
13	Nate	Wolters	S. Dak St	6-f-4	6.6%	231st
14	Jae	Crowder	Marq	6-f-6	6.5%	29th, Reb, Blk, Stl
15	Langston	Galloway	St. Joe's	6-f-2	6.4%	107th
16	Ryan	Broekhoff	Valparaiso	6-f-7	6.2%	204th
17	Noah	Hartsock	BYU	6-f-8	6.1%	26th, Blk
18	Herb	Pope	S. Hall	6-f-8	6.0%	69th, Reb, Blk
19	Andre	Jones	Winthrop	6-f-2	5.9%	212th
20	Cody	Zeller	Indiana	6-f-11	5.8%	24th, Reb, Blk,St

Make a few common sense adjustments for defense to the precise measure of offensive value calculated by Value Add, and eight All-Americans become clear. The two top defensive big men in the country (6-foot-9 Thomas Robinson and Jared Sullinger, the latter of whom is clearly the best player in the country when healthy) are added to six of the players above to form the All-American team to date:

Alphabetical All-American list to date
Jae Crowder - Marquette
Marcus Denmon - Missouri
Kevin Jones – West Virginia
Doron Lamb – Kentucky
Mike Scott – Virginia
Thomas Robinson – Kansas
Jared Sullinger – Ohio State
Cody Zeller – Indiana
Last two spots pick from among Georgetown’s Hollis Thompson (22nd highest Value Add and among rebound leaders for 20th best defense in the country) and UNC’s trio of Harrison Barnes, John Henson or Tyler Zeller.

This is not to say that is how the season will end. Darius Johnson-Odom had a terrible non-conference season last year, and this year he is already the 62nd best offensive player in the country (see below). He was already selected on a CBS Sports telecast as one of the top 4 candidates for Player of the Year along with Denmon, Robinson and Sullinger above, so if he explodes to dominate the Big East again this year it could be him rather than Crowder who becomes the third Marquette player of the decade picked as one of the Top 10 players in the country (Dwyane Wade and Jerel McNeal the other two).

Detailed math on calculating Offensive Value
For those of you who want to go through the detailed math, you can go to this link, or below is the explanation followed by the Top 100 offensive players so far this season:

Ken Pomeroy uses the formulas from Dean Olivier’s Basketball on Paper to precisely calculate a players Offensive Efficiency based on his shots, turnovers, assists, offensive rebounds, ability to get to the line, etc.

Jae Crowder scores a 128.8 Offensive Rating, meaning when for every 100 times a Marquette possession goes to Crowder, he scores 128.8 points, well above the national average of about 100.

Value Add starts from that number, and measures it against how many points a typical reserve would score if he had the ball instead of Crowder all of those times. Overall Marquette has faced the 72nd toughest defense of any team this year, which the average BCS bench player would score 92.18 points per possession against.

When you divide the points Crowder produces by what a replacement would have scored (128.8/92.18) you find that WHEN HE HAS THE BALL, Crowder scores 39.7% more points than a replacement would score. Scott Wood of NC State has the best total when he has the ball, registering a 143.9 Offensive Rating against very tough defenses, so he adds 58% to NC State’s scoring WHEN HE HAS THE BALL.

However, the next step is to determine how often you have the ball. Wood only gets the ball 14.8% of the time, so he is actually only adding 8.6% to NC State’s scoring while he is on the court (58% X 14.8% of the time getting the ball). Crowder gets the ball a lot – not as much as DJO but 22.3% of the time, so while he is on the court he adds 8.9% to MUs scoring, slightly better than Wood. Damian Lillard is tops in the country, improving Weber State’s scoring by 13.7% when he is on the court – though with terrible defense on the other end. Davante Gardner is actually 42nd best in the country when he has the ball, adding 7.3% to Marquette’s scoring.

It may seem that it is just a matter of giving the ball most players the ball more to increase their rating, but actually players start losing ground when they are used too much and they get tired and defenses key on them. For example, Olivier shows that even Kobe Bryant starts to cost the Lakers points once he starts having to handle the ball more than one-third of the time. Obviously Gardner is an awesome player when getting a limited number of chances, but is not yet able to be a guy who can score when getting the ball all the time.

The final step is to calculate what percentage of minutes the player plays. Crowder is playing 73% of Marquette’s minutes, so when multiplying that by the 8.9% he adds to Marquette’s scoring when on the court, we arrive at the final number of 6.47% of points added to Marquette’s total scoring over the course of the season. Like with possessions, a player who is forced to play too many minutes often starts to hurt his rating and the team's overall scoring.

The overall figures will stay about the same for most players as competition gets tougher, because the first step adjusts for the defense placed, so players do not have to score as much against tough defenses as they did against creampuffs to maintain the same rating.

The following are the top 100 offensive players in the country, going through each of these figures. The defensive calculation, which I did calculate last year, is much more complicated, and not nearly as accurate, so these are not adjusted for defense. We know Chris Otule blocking so many shots helps the rest of the defense, and that their defense was about the 20th best defense with him and the 40th best without him, but beyond that there aren't enough stats to get a truly accurate firm figure for the percentage of points he takes away from opponents, despite my best attempt in this link:

TOP 100 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS (VALUE ADD)

Rk	Fname	Lname	Team	Ht	Yr	w/ball	on court	Overall
1	Damian	Lillard	Weber St.	6-f-2	Jr	44.0%	13.7%	11.0%
2	Zack	Rosen	Penn	6-f-1	Sr	36.7%	9.0%	8.6%
3	Marcus	Denmon	Missouri	6-f-3	Sr	44.1%	9.8%	7.5%
4	Kevin	Jones	W. VA	6-f-8	Sr	36.0%	8.6%	7.3%
5	Steven	Pledger	Oklahoma	6-f-4	Jr	49.5%	11.0%	7.3%
6	Isaiah	Canaan	Murray St.	6-f-0	Jr	34.4%	9.1%	7.3%
7	Kenny	Boynton	Florida	6-f-2	Jr	42.5%	9.4%	7.2%
8	Will	Barton	Memphis	6-f-6	So	31.8%	8.3%	7.1%
9	Doug	McDermott	Creigh	6-f-7	So	33.5%	9.8%	7.1%
10	Mike	Scott	Virginia	6-f-8	Sr	34.1%	9.4%	7.1%
11	Doron	Lamb	Kentucky	6-f-4	So	43.6%	8.8%	6.8%
12	Jarrod	Jones	Ball St.	6-f-9	Sr	33.3%	8.4%	6.7%
13	Nate	Wolters	S. Dakota St	6-f-4	Jr	26.7%	8.0%	6.6%
14	Jae	Crowder	Marq	6-f-6	Sr	39.7%	8.9%	6.5%
15	Langston	Galloway	St. Joe's	6-f-2	So	39.6%	7.4%	6.4%
16	Ryan	Broekhoff	Valparaiso	6-f-7	Jr	35.7%	7.6%	6.2%
17	Noah	Hartsock	BYU	6-f-8	Sr	36.8%	7.7%	6.1%
18	Herb	Pope	S. Hall	6-f-8	Sr	24.0%	7.5%	6.0%
19	Andre	Jones	Winthrop	6-f-2	Sr	27.0%	6.9%	5.9%
20	Cody	Zeller	Indiana	6-f-11	Fr	37.7%	8.3%	5.8%
21	Brian	Conklin	St. Louis	6-f-6	Sr	33.7%	8.2%	5.8%
22	Hollis	Thompson	Gtown	6-f-8	Jr	39.4%	8.2%	5.8%
23	Matt	Dickey	NC Ashv	6-f-1	Sr	34.4%	7.3%	5.7%
24	Robert	Nyakundi	SMU	6-f-8	Sr	30.9%	6.8%	5.6%
25	Deremy	Geiger	Idaho	5-f-11	Sr	40.8%	7.3%	5.6%
26	Ken	Horton	Cent Conn	6-f-6	Sr	25.4%	6.4%	5.6%
27	Jeremy	Lamb	UConn	6-f-5	So	26.5%	6.1%	5.6%
28	Reggie	Hamilton	Oakland	5-f-11	Sr	21.1%	6.7%	5.6%
29	Erick	Green	Va Tech	6-f-3	Jr	33.9%	7.4%	5.5%
30	Jim	Mower	Lafayette	6-f-3	Sr	32.5%	6.4%	5.5%
31	Scott	Wood	NC State	6-f-6	Jr	58.2%	8.6%	5.5%
32	Kevin	Pangos	Gonzaga	6-f-1	Fr	34.2%	7.1%	5.5%
33	Chase	Tapley	S. Diego St	6-f-2	Jr	30.8%	6.4%	5.4%
34	John	Jenkins	Vanderbilt	6-f-4	Jr	29.8%	7.1%	5.4%
35	Andre	Young	Clemson	5-f-9	Sr	33.8%	6.3%	5.4%
36	Scott	Machado	Iona	6-f-1	Sr	24.6%	5.9%	5.3%
37	Robert	Covington	Tenn St	6-f-8	Jr	28.7%	7.4%	5.3%
38	Joe	Ragland	Wichita St.	6-f-0	Sr	42.8%	8.1%	5.3%
39	John	Shurna	N Western	6-f-9	Sr	23.1%	6.2%	5.3%
40	Erving	Walker	Florida	5-f-8	Sr	30.3%	7.1%	5.2%
41	Justin	Edwards	Maine	6-f-3	Fr	26.2%	6.9%	5.2%
42	Ricardo	Ratliffe	Missouri	6-f-8	Sr	40.5%	8.8%	5.2%
43	Drew	Crawford	N Western	6-f-5	Jr	27.2%	6.2%	5.1%
44	J'Covan	Brown	Texas	6-f-1	Jr	22.6%	6.1%	5.1%
45	Dennis	Tinnon	Marshall	6-f-8	Jr	42.1%	7.5%	5.1%
46	Gerald	McLemore	Maine	6-f-3	Sr	27.7%	6.3%	5.1%
47	Shabazz	Napier	UConn	6-f-0	So	23.9%	5.8%	5.0%
48	Garrett	Sim	Oregon	6-f-1	Sr	37.8%	6.7%	5.0%
49	Anthony	Raffa	Coast Carol	6-f-1	Jr	24.6%	6.4%	5.0%
50	Robert	Sacre	Gonzaga	7-f-0	Sr	30.0%	7.3%	5.0%
51	Kris	Joseph	Syracuse	6-f-7	Sr	32.3%	6.9%	5.0%
52	Kerron	Johnson	Belmont	6-f-1	Jr	25.7%	6.9%	5.0%
53	Mark	Lyons	Xavier	6-f-1	Jr	30.7%	7.3%	5.0%
54	Henry	Sims	Gtown	6-f-10	Sr	30.4%	8.6%	4.9%
55	Cameron	Ayers	Bucknell	6-f-5	So	39.9%	6.1%	4.9%
56	Zack	Novak	Michigan	6-f-4	Sr	46.9%	5.9%	4.9%
57	Omari	Grier	Fl Atlantic	6-f-4	Fr	51.8%	9.9%	4.9%
58	Jaime	Serna	UC Sa Clara	6-f-9	Sr	47.5%	8.5%	4.8%
59	Nick	Barbour	H. Point	6-f-3	Sr	24.2%	6.2%	4.8%
60	Jared	Sullinger	Ohio St.	6-f-9	So	34.4%	8.6%	4.8%
61	Charles	Hinkle	American	6-f-5	Sr	18.6%	5.4%	4.8%
62	Darius	Johnson-Odom	Marq	6-f-2	Sr	26.5%	7.0%	4.7%
63	Robbie	Hummel	Purdue	6-f-8	Sr	23.5%	6.1%	4.7%
64	Austin	Morgan	Yale	5-f-11	Jr	33.0%	6.7%	4.7%
65	Tyler	Murray	Wagner	6-f-5	Sr	33.9%	5.8%	4.7%
66	Tu	Holloway	Xavier	6-f-0	Sr	27.5%	6.7%	4.7%
67	C.J.	Harris	W. Forest	6-f-3	Jr	22.0%	5.4%	4.7%
68	Chace	Stanback	UNLV	6-f-8	Sr	35.4%	7.2%	4.6%
69	Miguel	Paul	E. Carolina	6-f-3	Jr	22.9%	6.2%	4.6%
70	Jerian	Grant	N. Dame	6-f-5	So	29.4%	5.6%	4.6%
71	Justin	Cobbs	California	6-f-2	So	30.3%	6.7%	4.6%
72	Adam	Smith	NC Wilm	5-f-11	Fr	25.6%	6.1%	4.6%
73	Nik	Cochran	Davidson	6-f-3	Jr	37.5%	6.8%	4.6%
74	Brian	Stafford	Denver	6-f-4	Sr	28.3%	5.9%	4.6%
75	Nasir	Robinson	Pitt	6-f-5	Sr	31.0%	6.2%	4.6%
76	Chris	Smith	Louisville	6-f-2	Sr	39.3%	6.6%	4.6%
77	Jeremy	Granger	E. Illinois	6-f-1	Sr	22.0%	5.8%	4.6%
78	Deonte	Burton	Nevada	6-f-1	So	23.4%	5.8%	4.6%
79	Brandon	Young	DePaul	6-f-3	So	22.7%	5.9%	4.5%
80	Tyrus	McGee	Iowa St.	6-f-2	Jr	51.8%	9.1%	4.5%
81	Evan	Roquemore	S. Clara	6-f-3	So	22.1%	5.3%	4.5%
82	Terrell	Stoglin	Maryland	6-f-1	So	16.2%	5.5%	4.4%
83	Ashton	Gibbs	Pitt	6-f-2	Sr	20.5%	5.1%	4.4%
84	Scott	Eatherton	St. Franc PA	6-f-8	So	30.8%	6.9%	4.4%
85	Jordan	Hulls	Indiana	6-f-0	Jr	35.8%	6.1%	4.4%
86	Gerardo	Suero	Albany	6-f-4	Jr	16.6%	5.8%	4.4%
87	Arnett	Moultrie	Miss St.	6-f-11	Jr	29.0%	7.0%	4.3%
88	Cody	Ellis	St. Louis	6-f-8	Jr	32.9%	8.1%	4.3%
89	D.J.	Richardson	Illinois	6-f-3	Jr	27.5%	5.5%	4.3%
90	Sean	Johnson	Duquesne	6-f-2	Jr	27.1%	6.9%	4.3%
91	Charles	Odum	Portland St.	6-f-0	Sr	22.1%	5.6%	4.3%
92	Terell	Parks	W. Illinois	6-f-7	Jr	26.2%	6.2%	4.3%
93	Ryne	Smith	Purdue	6-f-3	Sr	43.0%	6.3%	4.3%
94	Neil	Watson	S. Miss	5-f-11	So	28.6%	6.6%	4.3%
95	Tyler	Zeller	UNC	7-f-0	Sr	27.5%	6.4%	4.2%
96	Maalik	Wayns	Villanova	6-f-2	Jr	17.7%	5.1%	4.2%
97	Clint	Steindl	St. Mary's	6-f-7	Sr	43.4%	7.1%	4.2%
98	Grant	Gibbs	Creigh	6-f-4	Jr	35.1%	5.9%	4.2%
99	Torye	Pelham	S. Miss	6-f-6	Sr	47.4%	7.6%	4.2%
100	Jake	Koch	N. Iowa	6-f-9	Jr	28.8%	6.7%	4.2%

Marquette captures Cheese State hoops title

2011-12-23T01:01:00.003-06:00

It wasn't pretty but a win is a win is a win. With Marquette's victory over UW-M on Thursday night they capture the unofficial Cheese State basketball title by defeating each of the other DI men's basketball programs. Earlier this season MU topped UW-Green Bay at the Bradley Center and knocked off top 10 UW-Madison at the Kohl Center.

The victory over the Panthers extends MU's all-time record against their neighbor to the east to 39-0. That dominance represents the second longest streak in NCAA history with only Syracuse's mastery of Colgate having reached a longer streak (45 games).

Merry Christmas to Buzz Williams, the team and to the Marquette faithful everywhere.

Buzz’s defense may have prevented 20-point loss to LSU; possible Otule return could lead MU back to Top 10

2011-12-21T18:40:00.003-06:00

Marquette has averaged a “Game Score” of just 79 since losing Chris Otule, only one-point better than UWM’s 78. MU has home court advantage, and UWM does not have the kind of height that caused such problems in the LSU and Washington games. However, Marquette will have to play better offense than they did against LSU to make it 39-0 against UWM Thursday night.

Opponent	Result	MU Margin	Opponent	Location	Game score
Mount St. Mary's	W	54	72	-4	122
Norfolk St.	W	31	84	-4	111
Winthrop	W	22	71	0	93
Mississippi	W	30	80	0	110
Norfolk St.	W	2	64	0	66
Jacksonville	W	32	68	-4	96
Ave. WITH Otule					100
Wisconsin	W	7	63	4	74
Washington	W	2	72	0	74
Wisconsin Green Bay	W	18	77	-4	91
Northern Colorado	W	21	74	-4	91
Louisiana St.	L	-8	65	4	61
Ave. without Otule					79
Needed vs. UWM					74

As I said in the LSU preview, “even though MU fans had the welcome sight of Chris Otule off of crutches, his absence Monday (vs. LSU) poses a big threat to MU staying undefeated.” With the offensive struggling terribly against the taller LSU, Buzz’s only chance was a highly aggressive defense that came up with 11 steals and forced 18 turnovers to keep MU close.

After making the long drive back from Baton Rouge I was shocked to see some fans blaming Buzz’s DEFENSE for the loss. That is almost like watching Alabama’s 9-6 loss to LSU and saying, “That proves Saban’s defense is terrible!”

Until the last minute of the game, when MU had to foul every trip, Marquette’s defense held LSU to 60 points in 61 trips down the court for an average of 0.98 points per trip – just below LSU’s season average. But Marquette’s defense did more than hold LSU just below their offensive average. It was Marquette’s defense that generated it’s offense by producing 16 points off of 11 steals:

	Trips	Points	Average
Marquette after steals	11	16	1.45
Marquette other trips	55	43	0.78

Take away steals, and MU scores 51 points vs. LSU
Those who wanted MU to play a less aggressive defense in a game in which they were hitting one in three shots from a half court set don't understand. Take away the transitions off of the 11 steals and MU’s 0.78 points per trip gives them just 51 points in 66 trips down the court.

Take away turnovers, and LSU averaged 1.4 points per trip
On possessions on which MU didn’t force a turnover, LSU averaged 1.4 points per trip down the court. So take it to an extreme, that would be 92 points in their 66 trips down the court. Now obviously LSU would have had some turnovers even with a low pressure defense, but there is no way MU sets up inside and tries to deny baskets when DJO is 6 inches shorter than his man and the entire front line averages 3 inches shorter than their opponent. No Otule as a backstop, no way. So LSU scores at least in the 70s and MU barely scrapes the 50s if MU doesn’t play aggressive defense.

MU has been 21 points better with Otule than without him
Reports indicate that the swelling of Chris Otule’s knee is down renew hope that MU could return the Top 10 level at which they were playing while he was on the court.

As covered in earlier posts, MUs “Game Score” indicates how good they played on a given night based on three factors – the final score, where the game was played, and the opponent.

Game Score	Indicates
100+	Could have beaten No. 1 on the road
90+	A top 25 team
82+	A top 50 team
77+	A top 100 team
70+	A top 200 team

During Chris Otule’s games, MU was the top team in the country – averaging a 100 game score.

Since Otule was injured at the beginning of the Washington game, MU has averaged 20 points worse at an average Game Score of 79. Twice they have played like a Top 25 team, but against Washington and LSU they have not played like a Top 100 team.

This is a small sample, and no player is worth 20 points a game. But if you see a 20-point difference with and without a player, then there is a good chance he is worth 5 or 10 points against certain teams – particularly against taller teams where his ability to box out and discourage shots at the rim was huge in the early games. This is a very simply form of the WinVal system, which the Dallas Maverick’s used to win the NBA title last year – measuring what impact each and every player has when he is on and off the court.

I expect a return to form Thursday night despite a solid 9-3 UWM team, but Otule is suddenly looking like a player that could be the difference between a potential national contender and a team that is going to have to hope to avoid taller teams in any bracket.

LSU's highly recruited 3 bigs offer threat with no Otule Monday - MU tunes up well with 93-72 win

2011-12-17T17:55:00.006-06:00

Of all the great news during Saturday's win, the most important stat was MU allowing Northern Colorado, and above average team on the offensive glass, to rebound only 22% of their missed shots in the 93-72 win that made MU 10-0 for the first time since Dwyane Wade's first year.

LSU's trio of highly recruited big men are playing together for the first year (1 freshman, 2 transfers), and have started to dominate the offensive glass in winning their last four games including trips to Rutgers and future Big East member Houston.

Thankfully Jamil Wilson and Juan Anderson were back from injury today to tune up for tough match-ups underneath Monday, but even though MU fans had the welcome sight of Chris Otule off of crutches, his absence Monday poses a big threat to MU staying undefeated.

MU is giving up about 3 inches per match-up underneath against players that were as highly recruited as MUs players as recruits based on the Rivals ratings. The table below goes through each team's talest four players, and which team has the edge on each matchup based on who was a bigger recruit (Rivals Stars and then Position Rank if they were rated).

Edge	Jer	LSU tallest 4	Ft	In	Yr	Rivals	MU tallest 4	Ft	In	Yr	Rivals
LSU	2	Johnny O'Bryant	6	9	Fr	4* 4th	Jamail Jones	6	6	So	4* 10th
MU	5	Malcolm White	6	9	Sr	4* 24th	Jamil Wilson	6	7	So	4* 18th
Even	41	Justin Hamilton	6	11	Jr	3*	Jae Crowder	6	6	Sr	3*
Even	13	Eddie Ludwig	6	9	Jr	3*	Davante Gardner	6	8	So	3*

O'Bryant ranking as the 4th best at his position makes him the highest touted big man on the court Monday, as he ranked slightly higher than even Jamail Jones (10th best).

Jamil Wilson was slightly more highly regarded than fellow trasfer Malcolm White, but they were virtually even (18th best vs. 24th best out of high school)
Justin Hamilton also transferred (from Iowa State) and Eddie Ludwig were virtually equal;y regarded as Jae Crowder and and Davante Gardner.

So from the pure standpoint of how highly regarded they were as recruits, LSU and Marquette are virtually even among the four bigs, but MU averages giving up three inches per position underneath with Otule out.

While certainly none of the LSU bigs have matched the production of Crowder, White and Hamilton have been among the top offensive rebounders in the country both at their previous colleges (Mississippi and Iowa State respectively). O'Bryant is already the third best offensive rebounder in an improved SEC (grabs 15.5% of all LSU misses). You can see how Otule will be missed if MU's 4 "bigs" don't step out and do a great job of boxing out.

Edge	Jer	LSU other 6	Ft	In	Yr	Rivals	MU other 6	Ft	In	Yr	Rivals
MU	10	Andre Stringer	5	9	So	3* 27th	Vander Blue	6	4	So	5* 7th
MU	22	Ralston Turner	6	6	So	3* 28th	Junior Cadougan	6	1	Jr	4* 13th
MU	24	Storm Warren	6	7	Sr	3* 33rd	Juan Anderson	6	6	Fr	4* 19th
Even	14	Jalen Courtney	6	8	So	3*	Darius Johnson-Odom	6	2	Sr	3*
Even	32	John Isaac	6	4	Fr	3*	Todd Mayo	6	3	Fr	3*
Even	1	Anthony Hickey	5	10	Fr	3*	Derrick Wilson	6	0	Fr	3*

If MU isn't blow out underneath, then they do have a clear advantage at the other positions.

Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Juan Anderson were all more highly recruited than any of LSUs swing men or guards.

While Darius Johnson-Odom, Todd Mayo and Derrick Wilson were not more highly recruited than their LSU counterparts, they have proven to be better than many more highly rated players. DJO was picked as one of the top 10 players in the country so far this year in an SI article, and when he had to sit out today for a team rules violation, Mayo continued his incredible play this year by scoring 22 points to give MU a win virtually identical to what was predicted on www.kenpom.com assuming DJO was playing.

So MU needs to control the pace with superior talent at the guard and swing positions, but everyone will have to help box out to pervent LSU from getting on a roll and dominating inside much as Stanford did with current LSU coach Trent Johnson was coaching them.

Is Marquette Unlucky?

2011-12-12T09:37:00.000-06:00

The Marquette Warriors enter finals week with a perfect 9-0 record, and despite the winning streak this break in the action was perfectly timed. After losing starting center Chris Otule for an indefinite period of time due to a knee injury he sustained in the Washinton game, the Ghosts of Tom Crean Tackling Dummies re-emerged at The Al, sending Juan Anderson (3-4 weeks, shoulder) and Jamil Wilson (day-to-day, ankle) into the infirmary. Just when fans were getting jazzed about the Warriors' prospects this season! The news of the week prompted frequent guest contributor, Dr. Blackheart, to dance on the keyboard once more .... and now he asks, Is Marquette Unlucky?

************************

Jimmy Chones leaving for the ABA in the midst of an undefeated season…Dean Marquardt’s car accident… Bob “I Like to Watch” Dukiet losing star recruits to academics…Will Gates' blown out knee in “Hoop Dreams”…Travis Diener and the tackling dummy,…Jerel McNeil and the HIPPA finger…Trevor Mbwake, Dom James and the sinking feeling of the fans and the OrthoPods. And, now, in a matter of hours, the (possibly) torn ACL of our Defensive Stud Chris Otule, the shoulder of top rated freshman Juan Anderson, and the ankle of high potential Jamil Wilson. And, many more over the years.

“Why Marquette?” “Why always the big men?” ”Why Me?”… are the overriding fan questions ringing around our ears. How much bad luck can one fan absorb, never mind a diehard Cubs fan who is a Brewers season ticket holder, as dysfunctional as that is on the surface? In perhaps the best and earliest Marquette outlook in 30+ years, why do all the great feelings of the past week come to a crushing end? Isn’t it Marquette’s time, as ordained by our new President and AD?

The answer , of course, is “leave it to fate”. However, Pomeroy has a measure of “Luck” that, as a stat geek, I like to turn to in order to balance the emotional side of my brain with the rational. Pomeroy defines “Luck” as such: “The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.” In other Poemroy analyses, “Luck” is most correlated to “Experience”, and Buzz has experienced guards.

Lucky Number?

Over the past ten Pomeroy seasons, Marquette has been “Lucky” in only 3 of them, including this season to date, pre-injuries. Buzz, on the other hand, has been as unlucky as it gets. MU has set school and Big East records in the number of close games that his teams have played in. Yet, MU seems to always overachieve its talent and “Luck” at year’s end. However, to date, MU 2011 is Final Four” Lucky” with an exact rating of the DW3 year at the Triple Snake Eyes rank. Until Tuesday, MU was that “Lucky”! But, things change quickly as we know and MU is now as lucky as .

So, Where Does This Lead Us Irrationales?

To drink? Maybe…but time seems to be on our side. MU is waiting the Otule ACL sprain out to see its severity, Juan’s shoulder is seen to put him out until only the start of the Big East season, and Jamil’s ankle seems to be chronic but day to day, pending recovery time and Xmas practice/therapy time. Meanwhile, MU beat one of the most talented and perhaps the season’s-end best Pac 10/12 teams in Washington, without Chris Otule. His replacement, Gardner, is an offensive dynamo in the limited minutes he can offer—Pomeroy Offensive Efficiency Rating for the Ox of 124.4 vs. CO’s 92.2. Anderson, while showing flashes and providing height depth, still has only seen a few minutes. Is this unlucky? Yes, with Chris’s defense but not with his O, so DG has time to work on his game extensively, while Juice gets his chance to showcase his skills. In the end, this provides minutes to those that Buzz has had no qualms about playing in the Out of Conference anyway, making MU a stronger season’s- end team, waiting for the hopeful return of the injured. LSU and Vandy will give MU height problems, but MU’s experience will carry the day into the Big East, as my irrational mind tells me as I wish upon on northern star. MU buries the tortured artist, Judeo-Christian, Martyr syndromes, and assumes its rightful place as #1 in the country (says a fingers-crossed Cubs fan in a full body cast, but looking good it his Man Uggs). Go MU (I hope)! Regardless, I am playing my lucky 19 and 77 at the Potto Bingo Boat, but I sure wish Andre Walker picked MU over Xavier right about now.

With 2 of the top 18 players in the country according to SI, do the numbers say Gardner and J. Wilson can get MU through until Otule returns?

2011-12-10T03:08:00.003-06:00

If you’ve read Sports Illustrated the last few days, it’s easy to see why Marquette is ranked somewhere between 1st and 11th in virtually every computer rating and poll this season heading into tonight’s game with Green Bay.

According to Luke Winn, Marquette has two of the top 18 players in the country so far this season in Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, as well as a freshman in Todd Mayo who is scoring as many points a minute as his brother O.J. Mayo did as a freshman. Add to that Seth Davis citing Vander Blue as one of the top breakout sophomores, and it’s clear MU has tons of firepower.

Will Marquette stay in the Top 10 without Anderson, Otule?
However, when 7-foot-1 Alec Brown of Green Bay steps on the court tonight it will be a quick reminder that 6-foot-7 Jamil Wilson and 6-foot-8 Davante Gardner are now MU’s two tallest players until 6-foot-11 Chris Otule returns from an ACL injury that has MU fans holding their breath. With Juan Anderson now scheduled to miss 3-4 weeks with a shoulder injury, we can only hope Otule ends up with a similar timeline in order to come back for the Georgetown game.

For several years MU was so thin that any injury was almost insurmountable. The situation is much better now with a team that still has nine top flight D1 players ready to go and is luckily favored by double digits in Pomeroy in every game until a tough trip to Georgetown January 4, by which point it is even possible MU could be as good as 14-0.

In evaluating if MU can withstand the very unfortunately injuries, we can turn again to Pomeroy, who has now released his unsurpassed player calculations. Marquette had finally reached almost the average height in D1 basketball at 6-foot-4.5 inches before having to spread the 6-foot-11 Otule’s minutes between 6-foot-8 Davante Gardner and 6-foot-7 Jamil Wilson, and here are the rest of the comparisons:

	Otule	Gardner	J. Wilson	Ranked MU players
ORtg	92.2	124.4	102.2	DJO 18th, Crowder 11th*
eFG%	60	60	46.4	Crowder 57th, DJO 164th
Off Reb.	11.4	14.4	7.2	Otule 246th, Gardner 73rd*
Fouls Drawn	4.3	6.8	2.5	DJO 33rd, Gardner 57th
Height	6-f-11	6-f-8	6-f-7	Team 178th with Otule
Blk%	9.6	1.9	6.8	Otule 48th, J. Wilson 118th
Def Reb	15.3	15.9	12.9	Crowder 321st

Losing Otule is not a big blow on the offensive side of the court. While Gardner’s overall great Offensive Rating (points per 100 times a player has the ball) of 124.4 will drop off with more possessions and minutes played, he will still almost surely produce more points than Otule’s 92.2. So overall, expect a few more points with Wilson and Gardner splitting Otule’s minutes. If DJO was the guy with the ball 28% of the time rather than his actual 27% of the time to date, his ORtg would be the 5th best of any go-to player in the country. As it is, DJO is the 18th best offensive player that is used at least 24% of the trips down the court, and Jae Crowder is the 11th best offensive player used at least 20% of the time down the court, and Todd Mayo has already broken into the top 300 as a freshman. So the offense looks unstoppable.

Both Otule and Gardner have effective Field Goal percentages of 60%, and while Wilson is lower right now that is with only 23 shots attempted. The fact that he can pop out and hit the trey (2 of 5 so far) certainly indicates he could create a tough matchup.

The one place on offense Otule was having an excellent start was in grabbing 11.4% of all Marquette misses, good for 246th of the 3500 D1 players, but if Gardner had more minutes played, his 14.4% of MU misses grabbed would rank him 73rd in the country. However, this is where having Wilson on the court playing center would hurt. Gardner’s ability to draw a foul 6.8% of the time would rank him 57th in the country, not far behind DJO’s ranking of 33rd (draws fouls 7.3% of the time). Mayo cracks the top 500 here too at 4.8%.

When you add in that Junior is 21st in the country in assists (38.3% of all MU baskets while he is on the court come off his assist), and Blue and DJO are ranked 263rd and 383rd respectively. It’s easy to see why Marquette’s offense is ranked as the 8th best in the country, and it looks like they can continue to be in the top 10 even down a couple of players. The question is, can they score enough against the tough teams like Georgetown and Syracuse to make up for a weakened defense if Otule is still out.

Defense – give up rebounds with Wilson, blocks with Gardner
Marquette is one of the top defensive teams in the country in three of four categories; turnovers, opponent’s shooting percentage and not fouling. They have been very weak in defensive rebounding.

Certainly the turnovers should keep coming from the 1-4 spots, led by Blue surging to 75th in the country by stealing the ball 4.4% of opponent’s trips down the court.

However, the absence of the 6-foot-11 Otule could definitely be felt with much improved shooting by Marquette opponents no longer being denied at the rim. Otule is blocking 9.6% of opponents’ 2-point shots so far this year, about the same as last year and fourth best in the Big East behind only Melo, Drummond and Dieng, and 48th best in the country.

While Gardner is basically Otule’s equal in defensive rebounds (15.9% of opponents misses to 15.3% of Otule), Otule is five times as likely to block a shot as Gardner, so expect opponents shooting percentages to go way up with Otule gone. Wilson has actually been a very good shot blocker at 6.8%, good enough for 118th in the country. However, while his defensive rebounding is solid at 12.9%, he is probably unlikely to be able to seal off opposing players as well as Otule does , meaning MU is likely to allow even more opposing second shots with Otule out.

While inconsistent, Marquette’s defense had been dominating at times this year and overall outstanding as one of only 18 teams to allow fewer than 90 points per every 100 trips down the floor.

It’s hard to see MU’s defense staying at that level with Otule out, so to stay as the projected No. 2 seed and top 10 team most are calculating through a month, MU either needs to fight through the next month and hope to get Anderson and Otule back for most Big East play, or simply have one of the top couple of offenses in the country and win shootouts in the 80s.

Well, That Was Fun

2011-12-07T08:35:00.001-06:00

Really, does it get much better in early December than last night? Surely you know by now, but Jae Crowder hit a late-game three to take MU to the victory. It was a very entertaining game, featuring 15+ lead changes (mostly in the second half), and all kinds of highlights. Plus, it was on the big stage of Madison Square Garden with the full muscle and might of ESPN behind it. Last night's game and victory were BIG TIME. So big that for a while Jae Crowder was the #1 trending topic on Twitter.*

*filed under phrases I never thought I would type two years ago. For about ten different reasons.

Two minutes in the game, Marquette lost Otule for the game. Without their best rebounder and space eater, MU got slaughtered on the boards and had trouble adjusting defensively. And they still won. Two games in a row, MU was down a starter in a big-time game. And they still won. Marquette really did not play all that great last night. And they still won.

Despite all the positive vibes, there are a few reasons to be concerned. For one, the bad defense showed up last night. Last night's game was so entertaining because it was all offensively driven (well, that and the myriad of highlights from both teams). Marquette just couldn't get stops. After opening the season with four out of seven games of a defensive eFG% less than 40%, Washington had an eFG% of 53% for the game. The Huskies shot 57% in the first half! And when UW wasn't hitting on a high percentage of shots, they were grabbing an offensive rebound on almost half of their missed shots. If that final shot from Jae doesn't go down, the entire story of this recap is "what the #$%^& happened to the defense?".

Can all that be attributed to the loss of Otule? Certainly, UW was a bad matchup to lose your tallest player, considering they are one of the tallest teams in the nation, and offensive rebounding is one of their strengths. However, Syracuse, UConn, and WVU are all taller. Heck, UWGB and LSU are taller than Washington. Marquette needs to get their defensive mojo back, especially if Otule misses any amount of time. The extra days off until Saturday will help for sure. Just remember that it's been the defensive improvement this year that has made the biggest difference.

Despite those comments, there's a LOT to like about this year's team. They have added experience to their toughness and hustle. As we put out there, last year's team probably doesn't win this game (Vanderbilt / Louisville). Good morning, 8-0!

More kudos

I've long said that I'll believe a freshman contributes when a freshman contributes. Mayo is that freshman. His missed dunk was embarrassing, but the kid is efficient, confident, skilled and aggressive. He'll be a three year starter.
Jamil looked good again last night for the second game in a row. A few more of those shots go down (and they will), and we're talking about him being a monster. If that rebound-tip doesn't get stuck, it's probably a Sportscenter highlight. And that wasn't the only time I rewound a play of his wondering, "how'd he get that rebound?"
Loved Vander turning his opponent into a poster. It was an NBA-type play.

Media Links to satisfy your cravings

From Enlund's blog, Post-Game Quotes from the team
The official JSOnline recap
Paint Touches posts their thoughts from the win
Anonymous Eagle has a post-game jubilation thread
Here's the view from Seattle
Jeff Goodman has a great post about MU and toughness (should MU try to shed the label?)
ESPN has a rapid reaction blog post

From UW to UW

2011-12-06T08:42:00.001-06:00

After thrashing the whiny Badgers on Saturday, the Warriors will lace'em up tonight against Washington (4-2) in Madison Square Garden. Tonight's game will be the fifth tilt away from home for MU already, and the team's fourth neutral court game of the season. Location aside let's hope the Warriors don't go all Wolfpack and suffer the consequences of a spectacular hangover on national television.

Ruffies or not, Rob thinks MU wins comfortably as long as the Warriors defend well (UW is not a good defensive team, so MU will score -- a lot). Still, don't expect any "Dead Badgers" tonight, but we'll take a few turkeys as a key to victory. Pomeroy figures MU has a 77% win probability, with the team's smothering defense as the key factor. So far this season the Warriors have held four teams to an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of less than 40%. In 37 games last season MU achieved this elite level of defense just three times.

The Huskies have a good offense (#36 - though it is not as good as Marquette's) and a slightly worse defense (#74) that is one of the worst in the nation at defending the three point shot. On offense look for the young Huskies to launch a lot of three-pointers themselves, where they hit at a rate of nearly 43% as a team (wow). We'll be watching closely to see if this area of defense for Marquette, which was previously a giant weakness, can match up against Washington. In addition, in both of the Huskies' losses, the team was shut down offensively.

Note that the Huskies are both one of the tallest (#22) and least experienced (#295) teams in the country. Be thankful we're playing them early this season instead of later. They are also one of the fastest teams in the country, which will be a welcome change from the plodding pace of the Badgers.

A national television game with Dick Vitale doing the call is Big-Time (though I'll mute that big and rely on the McIlvaine radio call). We expect the bright lights of the big city, as well as the grinding attitude of Marquette's defense, to ultimately result in MU pulling away easily. Ring out Ahoya!

*********

Oh, Marquette has a new athletic director. Welcome to the family, Larry Williams. Williams' background as an athlete, lawyer and administrator should make him ideally suited for this kind of role. Also, it was good to see Father Pilarz work through a solid process to identify what MU needed and then work swiftly to make it happen.

In case you missed it, please take the time to read Charlie Pierce's Grantland column about Marquette basketball. You'll be glad you did.

Additional previews

PG out for visit to #7 Wisconsin? No problem for MU freshmen

2011-12-03T19:44:00.003-06:00

DJO was dominant on offense and Vander Blue on defense, but the story today was that someone forgot to tell Marquette’s three freshman that when you visit a top 10 opponent, you have less than a 7 percent chance of winning. The odds get a lot worse when your starting point guard can’t play, and even worse when you can't go for steals after being whistled for four fouls in the first five minutes against the team that is the WORST team in the country at drawing fouls.

In the past decade, Marquette was just above the national average – going 1-11 when facing a Top 10 team on the road (based on www.kenpom) until upsetting UConn last year. Now Marquette has done it twice in a row – and the freshman were a big part of it.

vs. Top 10 on road	Rnk	Day	Season	Result	MU	Opp
Wisconsin	3	Sat Dec 3	2012	W	61	54
Connecticut	10	Thu Feb 24	2011	W	74	67
Pittsburgh	4	Sat Jan 8	2011	L	81	89
Syracuse	4	Sat Jan 23	2010	L	71	76
West Virginia	8	Tue Dec 29	2010	L	62	63
Wisconsin	9	Sat Dec 12	2010	L	63	72
Pittsburgh	5	Wed Mar 4	2009	L	75	90
Louisville	4	Sun Mar 1	2009	L	58	62
Louisville	6	Thu Jan 17	2008	L	51	71
Wisconsin	5	Sat Dec 8	2008	W	81	76
Georgetown	5	Sat Feb 10	2007	L	58	76
Villanova	7	Sat Feb 4	2006	L	67	72
Louisville	5	Wed Jan 26	2005	L	52	99
Wisconsin	5	Sat Dec 20	2004	L	59	63
Average score					65	74

Marquette's showings have been so impressive that Sagarin's predictor, which had MU as a 7-point underdog today, will most likely show Marquette as the favorite in EVERY GAME the rest of the season. Obviously they will not win every game, because if you have an 80% chance to win 10 games in a row, you usually go 8-2, but this is a new level never achieved by MU before.

And for the freshman:

Derrick Wilson started in front of the suspended Junior Cadougan, played 20 minutes without a turnover, meaning the former football star now has 2 turnovers in 102 minutes. When All-American candidate Jordan Taylor tried to drive to cut into Marquette’s 41-33 lead with 13:29 to go, Wilson took a charge in the open court to send Taylor to the bench with his 4th foul.

With Jae Crowder in foul trouble, Todd Mayo was able to get in 20 minutes. When Wisconsin cut it to 41-40, Mayo drove, was cut off by Badger big men, and kissed a lay-up off the top of the glass. When Wisconsin was forced to press with 20 seconds left, Taylor tried to guard Mayo, but Mayo left him in the dust for a long in-bound pass and two-handed monster jam to make it 61-51 with 14 points from Mayo – GAME OVER. A meaningless three-pointer by Wisconsin at the end made the score sound respectable for a team that had only lost AT UNC by 3 points – indicating they likely would have beaten the Tar Heels in Madison (the average point swing from home to away is 8 points).

Juan Anderson, the third freshman, had only played 7 minutes all year, but with only 10 Warriors suited up he went in for 7 more eminutes and grabbed 5 rebounds to help MU DOMINATE the boards 41-28 in a reversal of last year.

If Wisconsin had not hit the final meaningless three-pointer, than the win would have marked the third time THIS SEASON that Marquette has had one of the Top 10 performance of the DECADE. As posted earlier, a Game Score of more than 100 means that the team likely could have beaten anyone in the country that night – and MU has done that 3 times in 7 games this year after doing it just 20 times in more than 200 games starting with the Final Four team.

Here are the top 20 performances of the decade based on a simplified game version of the Sagarin predictor model (Margin of victory, plus or minus 4 for home venue, plus opponent’s predictor value):

Top 20 Marquette performances in past decade based on Game Score Method:

Rnk	Opponent	Date	Year	Mar	Opp	Ven	Game Score
1	Mount St. Mary's	Fri Nov 11	2012	54	66	-4	116
2	Oklahoma St.	Tue Nov 20	2008	30	82	0	112
3	Detroit	Tue Nov 14	2007	42	73	-4	111
4	Northern Iowa	Fri Nov 28	2009	30	79	0	109
5	St. John's	Wed Mar 11	2009	29	76	4	109
6	Kentucky	Sat Mar 29	2003	14	94	0	108
7	West Virginia	Sat Jan 10	2009	22	90	-4	108
8	Cincinnati	Sun Jan 4	2009	34	78	-4	108
9	Mississippi	Sun Nov 20	2012	30	78	0	108
10	Notre Dame	Mon Jan 10	2011	22	89	-4	107
11	Notre Dame	Sat Jan 12	2008	26	85	-4	107
12	Seton Hall	Tue Feb 12	2008	25	77	4	106
13	Providence	Thu Jan 3	2008	29	80	-4	105
14	South Florida	Sat Jan 11	2003	33	76	-4	105
15	Coppin St.	Fri Dec 21	2008	47	62	-4	105
16	Wisconsin	Sat Dec 3	2012	7	93	4	104
17	Providence	Sun Jan 17	2010	30	78	-4	104
18	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Fri Nov 30	2008	35	73	-4	104
19	Connecticut	Tue Jan 3	2006	15	91	-4	102
20	Louisville	Mon Jan 15	2007	9	89	4	102

Wisconsin: Point-Counterpoint

2011-12-02T10:36:00.001-06:00

Welcome to Point-Counterpoint, featuring Rob Lowe and Dr. Blackheart.

Doc, you Pompous Ass. We Are Doomed.

Marquette is screwed on Saturday. Here's why:

Wisconsin will dictate tempo - Marquette likes to run, but consider this. North Carolina is the fifth fastest team in the nation at 75 possessions per game. However, on the road, UW shut down the Tarheel's transition game to a snail's pace of 61 possessions.
The Badgers don't foul or turn the ball over - Marquette has been making a living by forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, where the end result is either a high percentage two-pointer (MU is #2) or a foul (MU is #28). Too bad Wisconsin never turns the ball over (#4) and doesn't foul (#28), which will also shut down the fast-paced attack offense.
They are the #1 defensive eFG% team in the nation - And since we all know by now that defensive eFG% is (at least) two times more important than any of the other four factors, that's important. MU's offense is going to be 2H Norfolk State ugly.
UW's bigs are mobile and play away from the basket - marginalizing DG/CO. How good are the postup players that get pulled away from the basket on the most important end of the court?
It's at the Kohl Center - UW@Madison literally uses a different ball at the Kohl Center. Think about that. Then think about handcheck fouls being called quick and early on Marquette players, or non-calls against our guys when they are seemingly mauled headed to the basket. UNC beat Wisconsin the other night thanks to a second half free throw rate advantage of 82% to 12% (hello home cooking)! Does anyone really think MU is going to get that kind of advantage at the Kohl Center?

I'd love to be wrong, but my big fear is that this game will never really be close. I expect some ticky tack fouls that limit MU's aggressiveness, while UW's defense makes Marquette look stagnant. UW leads by 10+ points most of the game. In other news, I'll have to buy a new TV to replace the one that will shatter tomorrow, and the kids will have learned some new words. -Rob

Rob, you Ignorant Slut. You underrate Marquette.

I don't see anyone asking how UW matches up to MU. You have scared yourself into looking into how good UW is, how they are playing at home (with the officials' calls), how great of a system coach Bo is--which are all true. However...

Who is going to stop DJO and Crowder? Harrison Barnes burned Evans; will Evans be able to stop Jae? Junior is a distributor PG who can find CO or DG in spells...so who stops a post-up? And, if they do with their pack defense, who is left open on the perimeter. DJO? Todd? Jamil can play the 5 and can guard the perimeter, and his rebounding rate is very good. UW has no depth and UNC got them into foul trouble with their depth and quickness, just like MU.
Any points off or on the board against the Slo-Mo –O matter (Despite Rob’s proclamations that Free Throw Rate is meaningless). Bucky has the second lowest FTR in the nation, averaging only nine charity tosses per game. Compare this to the 33 and 25 attempts per game the last two MU trips to Madison. According to Pomeroy, opponent FTR is the second highest correlate to MU’s Defensive Efficiency rating.
The Swingers love the menage a trois this season being #1 in the nation in the percent of their points from “America’s Treyland” with 46.1% on 24 attempts per game. Interestingly, UNC opted to keep the ball in Taylor Jordan’s hands, which severely restricted the ball movement to the long-range shooters and forced their worst shooter (39% on FG) to launch late. Bucky only had 6 assists vs. UNC as a result.
MU fits a zone footprint according to Pomeroy, which plays into three important factors for MU. Zone the perimeter to restrict Taylor’s penetration and the ball movement to the trey shooters, and limit the precious number of possessions via long rebounds that the overreliance on treys results in. An opportunistic zone press also helps speed up the tempo of the game. Will Buzz play more zone?
Patience is a virtue. Wisconsin is #1 in the nation in eFG% defense and #2 in Opponent Offensive Rebounding Rate with their pack the line defensive scheme. I think MU’s high powered offense and shooters can conquer the day on eFG%. I also think Jamil Wilson comes of age in this game to limit Evans on the boards. Unlike, UNC, MU needs to be very patient on half-court offense to win.

This is not last year's MU team...nor is it Bucky's. Fast forward to tip-off. -Doc

They are who we thought they were

2011-12-02T06:01:00.000-06:00

The Warriors have rounded the first turn of the season 6-0, as expected. The team is healthy, deep, athletic and should be competitive in the top tier of the Big East this season. While the program's out-of-conference schedule is greatly improved, the real tests for the team are to come in the next three weeks with dare-to-be-great opportunities against University of Wisconsin-Madison, Washington, Louisiana State and Vanderbilt. With these intriguing tilts looming, here is what we (think we) know about the 2011-2012 Warriors.

The defense is better. In racing out to a 6-0 start the Warriors have already held three opponents to an eFG% of less than 40%, and just missed adding another in the win over Jacksonville. This early-season defensive performance is by far the best stretch of the Buzz Williams era. To date the Warriors are 20th in the nation in eFG% defense, holding opponents to just 41%. That figure is 15% better than the current D-1 average, a quantum improvement over last season's embarrassing eFG% of 49.9%, which was on the wrong side of the national average and 214th in the nation. If MU can sustain this level of defensive excellence, the program will exceed expectations this year.
DJO and Jae Crowder are breaking out. DJO and Crowder are the highest scoring duo in the Big East, combining for nearly 40 points per game. The pair is connecting from the floor at a blistering pace (57% for DJO, 59% for Crowder) both inside and outside of the arc. More importantly for many MU fans (though not efficiency geeks), DJO’s three-point shooting stroke is true as the senior is connecting at a 46.7% clip early.
The offense is still ridiculous. MU leads the Big East in scoring offense and from a tempo-free perspective the adjusted offensive efficiency of 115 is 10th best in the nation. MU is 2nd in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage (59.2%) and its turnover percentage is just 17.3%, far better than the D-1 average of 21.4. Rob's optimism about the backcourt was warranted, it seems.
The MU bigs have improved. Gardner is noticeably more fit and remains offensively efficient (hint: he needs the ball more!). Otule has improved his rebounding (3.6 last year to 5.6 so far this year) as well as his rebound percentage. The gains on the baseline are modest year-to-year, but quiet and consistent progression with bigs is refreshing to see from the program.

Of course it is still very early in the season, and there is much we don't know about this promising vintage. Consider:

Can the defense sustain against better competition? MU is second in the Big East in field goal percentage defense, and as outlined above, the consistent performances are encouraging to this point. However, the competitive matchups this month will reveal more about the defense than anything else with this team.
Vander Blue. Will he fade (again) as the competition improves? To this point, Blue is easily the third best player on the team. His toughness, hustle, defense and improved decision-making have all been on display through the season’s first month. However, don’t forget that as a freshman Blue was far more effective in out of conference games than in Big East action, where he connected on only 15% from the floor and scored just 16 points in the season’s final fourteen games. To date, Blue has been a revelation, averaging 10.7 points per game, 3.3 assists, 4.5 rebounds and a team-leading 2.5 steals. I'm on the bandwagon. Vander and the MU backcourt have exceeded expectations to date.
Todd Mayo. Is his fast start sustainable? Before the season started Mayo was my pick for the freshman most likely to contribute. Mayo is instant offense for the MU backcourt. Despite the reputation as a scorer, Mayo has played efficiently within the offense, connecting on 50% of his shots overall and 43% from deep. Mayo currently stands as the team’s Designated Rifleman.
Will the rotation remain 10-deep? We don't think so, and the player who stands to lose the most in this is Jamail Jones. With Mayo surging, the more versatile Jamil Wilson yet to emerge (is it just a matter of time?), Jones’ spot in the rotation might be at-risk.

This Saturday, MU kicks off its most competitive December in quite some time. By the time New Year's Day hits, and the Big East comes to town, we'll really know what this team is capable of.

November Non-Conference Report

2011-12-01T08:24:00.000-06:00

I've written a few times about Marquette's efforts to improve their strength of schedule and RPI for the 2011-12 season by playing a higher level of competition in the non-conference. Every month, I'm going to keep tabs on how our non-conference opponents have been performing. Let's take a look at November.

	November W-L	Current RPI	Projected RPI	kenpom Rating	Best Win	Worst Loss
Mt St Mary's	1-4	263	207	277	340 Hartford	263 Navy
Norfolk St	3-2	20	210	198	70 Drexel	10 Marquette
Winthrop	0-5	291	288	256	(None)	238 E Kent
Mississippi	5-1	33	47	73	43 Miami	10 Marquette
Norfolk St	3-2	20	210	198	70 Drexel	10 Marquette
Jacksonville	2-4	182	152	186	273 Samford	265 Sav St
Wisconsin	6-1	37	11	3	30 BYU	5 UNC
Washington	4-1	57	17	44	122 Georgia St	25 St Louis
Green Bay	1-4	89	176	180	187 Wyoming	108 ND State
N Colorado	2-4	128	116	183	242 W Carolina	187 Wyoming
LSU	4-3	117	197	138	88 GA Tech	284 S. Alabama
Milwaukee	4-1	164	137	109	177 IUPUI	14 Michigan St
Vanderbilt	5-2	21	48	39	62 NC State	71 Cleveland St
Marquette	6-0	6	12	10	73 Mississippi	(None)

Mount St. Mary's -- A tough month for the Mountaineers, who played four of five on the road. Hopefully playing five home games in December will help them get on track before conference play.

Norfolk State -- The surprise boost for MU so far are the Spartans, who beat everyone they faced that didn't have "Marquette" on the front of the jerseys. We'll learn a lot more about NSU in December. They play seven games, including a solid mid-major in Long Island and another high-major at Virginia Tech.

Winthrop -- The Eagles look more like an albatross around the neck after going 0-5 in November. Things don't get easier in December, as they play on the road in their first six games and will be underdogs in all seven they play.

Mississippi -- The Rebels had a great November, going 5-1 with their only loss to Marquette. The highlights include wins over Drake and Miami. The Rebels will need to be road warriors in December, when they play five of seven games on the road.

Jacksonville -- The Dolphins' record isn't as bad as it looks, as three of their four losses came to teams in kenpom.com's top-20. The competition is easier in December, with only one top-20 opponent, but five of six are on the road.

Wisconsin -- The Badgers had a solid month, with their only loss coming at the Dean Dome. They have a tough December, starting with Marquette and including the other in-state foes and UNLV. They do play seven of eight in the state of Wisconsin, which makes another good month likely.

Washington -- The Huskies went 4-1 in November, winning the games they were supposed to and losing on the road to Rick Majerus' St. Louis squad. December will be a telling month for the Huskies, as they face six current top-100 foes, including Duke and Marquette at Madison Square Garden. Personally, I'm pulling for a 7-1 December, with that 1 being a loss to the Warriors.

UW-Green Bay -- The Phoenix played a brutal November schedule, going 1-4 in RPI games. All four losses came against top-100 opposition on the road. Hopefully they can build some December momentum against UIC and Loyola-Chicago at home before things get really tough on the road against Wisconsin and Marquette.

Northern Colorado -- The Bears finished with a couple wins to go 2-4 after a rocky start to November. December should be much more kind, as the Bears play only once on the road, against Marquette at the BC. If their late-November improvement is a sign of things to come, this could end up being a quality opponent for Marquette by the end of the year.

LSU -- The Tigers made little sense in November, losing to a bad Southern Alabama team at home but beating a good Georgia Tech team on a neutral court. After that first month, it's hard to say how they'll do in December, but they do play four of six at home, including Marquette.

UW-Milwaukee -- The Panthers had a great November, going 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Michigan State. December provides more challenges, including Bucky at home and Marquette on the road, but just as many chances for Rob Jeter's club to add some wins.

Vanderbilt -- The Commodores are struggling without Festus Ezeli, having dropped two home games. They have two more chances at a signature non-conference win, first at Louisville on Friday and then at the end of December at Marquette. Vandy could be a very hungry team by the end of December, and with Ezeli expected to be back, should be more dangerous when Marquette sees them.

How quick did Blue, MU score after steals? 11 points in 32 seconds after 7 steals

2011-11-28T23:35:00.002-06:00

Marquette had an eFG% of 67% last night behind great three-point shooting from Jae Crowder (4-7 treys and 27 points), Darius-Johnson-Odom (4-6, 19)and Todd Mayo (2-2, 14 in just 15 minutes). But MU continues to explode when they steal the ball.

Blue led MU to seven steals – and MU turned all seven steals into points in a total of 32 seconds of action following the steals. That means that after an MU steal, the Warriors scored an average of 1.57 points per possession (to a still impressive 1.24 points per possession on all other trips), and scored at a pace of 0.344 points per second or 825 points per game. Here is a list of the seven steals, and how many seconds it took to either be fouled or score after each steal:

Steal	Seconds
17:26 Blue	0
15:37 DJO	8
13:38 Mayo	2
12:57 D. Wilson	1
0:51 Blue	3
16:59 Blue (2nd half)	13, 16
14:56 Blue	2
Ave seconds before score or foul	4.1

On the next-to-last steal it took Jacksonville 13 seconds to foul, and then they fouled again 3 seconds later to result in a free throw hit. Here is the breakdown of points per possession.

	Points	Possessions	Pts./Poss
After Steal	11	7	1.57
Other Possessions	77	62	1.24
All Possessions	88	69	1.28

Blue leads MU in rebounds, assists and steals

For a second straight game it was Vander Blue who finally secured victory against a pesky opponent. This one did not come down to the final minute like the Norfolk State game, but Jacksonville was within 28-31 with less than a minute to go in the half before Blue had a steal and assist to DJO, and was still hanging within 35-48 with 15 minutes to go in the game – and then Vander Blue took over.

With 14:56 to play, he came up with his fourth steal of the game – one for every six minutes on the court – and two seconds later laid it in at the other end for a 50-35 lead.

With 14:40 to play Blue ripped down one of his game high 9 rebounds, and worked it to DJO, who passed to Jae Crowder for a 3-pointer to make it 35-53.

With 13:53 Blue responded to a Jacksonville basket by getting the ball back down the court and kicking to DJO for a trey to make the score 37-56 on one of Blue’s team-high 7 assists.

In just over a minute, Blue had scored, assisted, rebounded, stolen the ball en route to leading the team in the latter three categories. MU was off to the races and an 88-56 win.

Can Marquette turn Wisconsin over and speed the game up Saturday?

Marquette may have to get some steals and breakaway baskets against Wisconsin, because the Badgers are the best team in the country at shooting percentage allowed (eFG% = 33.2%) and at defensive rebounding (81.9% of opponents misses rebounded by Badgers). They don’t let you make shots, and they don’t let you grab your miss. They are also one of the best 10 in the country at protecting the ball (turn it over on only 14.8% of trips).

So MU will need DJO, Jae and Todd Mayo to continue their fantastic scoring against a very tough defense, but they also need Vander Blue to help MU get a few steals and easy baskets in his return to Madison for the first time since turning down the Badgers for Marquette.

Marquette did once again allow an opponent to grab too many offensive rebounds last night (35.1%), which will bring back memories of last year’s second half against Wisconsin. However, I believe the bigger key to victory will be if Wisconsin can protect the ball and grind the game to below their average 59 trips down the court, or if MU can get it closer to their 70 trips per game average by disrupting the most disciplined attack out there.

Durley Committed to Marquette

2011-11-27T14:54:00.002-06:00

A false report surfaced on Twitter and a few other websites today reporting that 2012 Marquette commit Aaron Durley was planning to head to a Junior College in 2012 instead of enrolling at Marquette. Mark Strotman over at Paint Touches was quick to investigate this report and get quotes from the Durley family, including Aaron himself, that disputed this report. Here are a few of the highlights:

“This article is far from true,” Durley said in an email. “From the horse’s mouth, I assure you that I will be at Marquette University in the fall.”

Durley’s mother informed the Marquette coaching staff after the original report was published, saying that neither she nor Aaron would do or say anything negative or hurtful toward Marquette.

“I have never waivered on Aaron’s decision to attend Marquette,” Dana [Durley] said. “He is fully committed.”

Good news for the Marquette faithful that the 6'11" center will be enrolling in 2012. Here's a link to Mark Strotman's full article: Paint Touches Refutes Durley Report

RPI Forecast has MU finishing 3rd in the country

2011-11-24T15:31:00.003-06:00

If you didn’t check Cracked Sidewalks yesterday, please first check out the great story on how Buzz, acting AD Mike Broeker, Jim McIlvaine, Jimmy Butler, Lazar Hayward and some of my colleagues here at Cracked Sidewalks teamed up to reach out to young Liam Kelly, who is thankfully free of cancer today.

That was a real Thanksgiving story, that makes us remember how trivial basketball is by comparison...

MU's tougher schedule results in projected RPI of 3
On December 31, 2009, I noted that scheduling seven or eight non-Top 200 teams every year was killing Marquette’s RPI, and could cost us a bid.

This season, Marquette is projected to play only two schools out of the top 200 (Mount Saint Mary’s, 280th and Winthrop, 263rd). MU is 53-1 against such teams since 2003, DePaul being the one loss.

Season	RPI	vs. non-top 200
2012 Projected	3rd	2-0
2011	50th	7-0
2010	54th	7-1
2009	30th	8-0
2008	20th	7-0
2007	22nd	5-0
2006	30th	3-0
2005	91st	4-0
2004	75th	6-0
2003	8th	4-0

Cutting down on the number of teams played against Non-Top 200 teams has helped propel Marquette up to a projected RPI of 3, a spot normally reserved for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Duke and Alabama also benefit by only projecting to play two non-top 200 opponents, while Missouri is the only team projected to crack the top 10 despite playing seven non-Top 200 teams:

Projected RPI top 10 (non-top 200 opponents in parenthesis)
1. Duke 2 (NC Greensboro, Boston College)
2. Alabama 2 (Al A&M, Detroit)
3. MARQUETTE 2 (Mount St. Mary's, Winthrop)
4. Ohio State 4 (Jackson St, VMI, TX Pan Am, SC Upstate)
5. Kentucky 5 (Marist, Radford, Chatt, Samford, AR Little Rock)
6. Syracuse 5 (Fordham, Manhattan, Albany, Colgate, E. Mich)
7. Missouri 7 (SE Miss St, Niagra, Bingh, NW St, Navy, Kenn, W&M,
8. Purdue 6 (N. Ill, High Point, Coppin St., W. Car, E. Mich, IUPU-FW,
9. Kansas 3 (Tows, UCLA, N. Dak)
10. North Carolina 6 (Miss Valley, Tenn St, Evansv, Nichol, Monm, BC)

These forecasts assume Jeff Sagarin’s projections, which have Marquette finishing 25-6. Even if that proves unrealistic, the better scheduling would enable Marquette to finish with an RPI of roughly 24 even with a 21-10 mark, and even if MU went just 19-12 this season they project to have an RPI of 42, higher than the last two years.

Last year MU's critics were able to point out that the seven non-top 200 games meant MU was only 9-11 against Top 200 teams prior to the win at UConn. Based on our No. 11 seed, it looks like the seven games against non-Top 200 teams meant MU really did have to win at UConn and vs. West Virginia in the Big East tournament to make the tourney. This year the path looks much easier due to scheduling Top 200 teams like Jacksonville.

Jacksonville tries for 2nd straight upset at Florida today; visits MU Monday
Jacksonville projects to lose by 15 or 20 points to both Florida (today/Friday at 6 CST) and Marquette (Monday, 7 p.m. CST), which ranked No. 11 and No. 12 according to Ken Pomeroy coming into the game. However, Jacksonville did pull off a huge upset of #1 NIT seed Arizona State in 2010, then followed up by going into Florida to pull off the upset last year, and held within a respectable 12 points at #20 Florida State this year.

Historically, Jacksonville actually had more 1st round NBA selections (7-6) than Marquette, until Lazar and Jimmy were drafted. However, they are a long time from Artis Gilmore leading them to over 100 points a game and the 1970 national championship game against UCLA. When I calculated the Value Add of every returning player last year, 6-foot-1 Keith McDougald was Jacksonville’s top player at 1775th – behind every returning MU player.

They went 20-12 last year by scoring off steals and offensive rebounds, and this year is off to the same kind of start. Keith McDougald (4 steals, 43 points) and Russell and Glenn Powell (5/43 and 4/49 respectively) need to turn teams over to score at the other end. Meanwhile, Chris Davis (8 offensive rebounds and 27 points) and Delwan Graham (48/9) score by pounding the glass.

However, both last year and this they turned the ball over a lot, are very poor shooters, and foul a lot due to making up for a lack of height - all things that seem to play into Marquette’s hands.

Marquette needs to take care of business Monday in a final tune-up before heading out to Madison next Saturday to take on Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. CST), which plays the UNC Tar Heels as their warm-up for the in-state rivalry.

Both Sagarin and Pomeroy predict Wisconsin will be the toughest test of the year for Marquette, with Sagarin predicting a 2-point loss but Pomeroy predicting MU getting blow out by 10 points.

Happy Thanksgiving

2011-11-24T06:00:00.000-06:00

This post is long overdue. Today is a day where we take time to be grateful for the many blessings in our lives. And while I do not typically engage in personal discussions, I hope you'll humor this post today.

On March 31st, 2010, some dear friends found out their two year old son had less than a 30% chance of survival. Liam Kelly had been diagnosed with the rare condition of stage 4 Neuroblastoma. If you have children, family, or a soul, you probably appreciate how devastating this diagnosis was for the Kelly family.

Liam has now gone through eighteen grueling months of treatment including six cycles of chemotherapy, major abdominal surgery, four stem cell harvests, two stem cell (bone marrow) transplants, weeks of radiation, and finally six months of an experimental antibody therapy. In short, more pain and suffering than anyone should ever have to endure. However, there is a happy ending here, because Liam has completed his treatment and was declared cancer free.

Liam's dad is a proud Marquette alum (and dedicated hoops fanatic). When this first started to unfold, I reached out to Mike Broeker to see if there was anything that the athletic department did in situations like these. Here are some of the things I am thankful for.

Broeker immediately contacted Buzz, who called Liam's dad the very next day and wanted to come visit in the hospital. The hospital visit never worked out, but Liam's parents were particularly touched by Buzz's call. I'm thankful that Buzz was so responsive and makes those types of calls.
Mike kept in touch with the Kelly family off and on during much of their treatment. He would check in to see how things were going and sent a care package or two. In addition, prior to a Benefit Dinner to raise money for Liam's ongoing care, Broeker was nice enough to get three signed MU basketballs (by JFB and Lazar) donated for the auction. I'm thankful that Mike Broeker finds the time to follow up and help out an MU family.
Also prior to the auction, Tim helped reach out to Marquette legend (and the coolest radio announcer in the business) Jim McIlvaine. Mac donated signed pictures, a rookie card, and other memorabilia, for which I am thankful.
Finally, I'm thankful for Cracked Sidewalks contributor muwarrior92, who donated a signed jersey from (Super Bowl winning) quarterback Eli Manning.

All of these things were done without any expectation of public notification or gratitude, but today they get thanks. I'm thankful that the Marquette community supports its own in times of need.

And most especially, I'm thankful that Liam is cancer free.

If you want to read more about Liam, you can see their story at the family's website.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. We Are Marquette.

#16 Marquette wins for only the 3rd time when playing back-to-back; sneaks out 59-57 championship on Blue steal/assist with 1:13 to go

2011-11-21T23:11:00.007-06:00

Four years ago 1st year coach Buzz Williams faced back-to-back games against two teams that were almost just as good - a Northern Iowa team that would end up ranked #81 and a Dayton team that would be ranked #78 at seasons end.

On the first night, MU used their speed to improve to 5-0 with an unbelievable performance in a 73-43 win over Northern Iowa. The next night on not-so-fresh legs, MU was thrashed by Dayton 75-89. The trend of struggling when playing on consecutive nights and/or in the third day of a tournament has continued for the entire Buzz era, with an earily similar result of beating Norfolk State by 31 points a week ago, then barely suriviving for a 2-point win against the same team last night. In fact, in 9 such games during Buzz's tenure, MU's average score on "tired legs" has been a 65-71 loss. (see table at bottom of post for all such games)

The good news is that MU survived last night when Vander Blue came up with his 11th steal of the season with 1:13 to play, dribbled around his back to beat a defender, then fired a laser pass ahead to Jae Crowder for the final points of the game and Blue’s 20th assist of the season for the final score of a 59-57 win. MU survived a last second missed 3-pointer by Norfolk State to sneak away with the title.

It may be that MUs intensity that turns steals into baskets and rattles opponents just isn’t there when playing back-to-back nights. For the first 8 minutes MU continued their season pace of scoring well over 2 points a minute, but then they hit the wall and Norfolk State switched to a zone to only allow 42 points in 32 minutes and come within one final three-point attempt of stealing the Paradise Jam championship just a week after losing to MU by 31 points. The breakdown of MU’s points for the season prior to and after Norfolk went to the zone is below:

	Pts.	Minutes	Pts/Min
First 4 games + 1st 8 minutes	397	168	2.4
Final 32 minutes vs. zone	42	32	1.3

The game reminded me of the bad games against Florida State, UWM and DePaul the last couple of years – a terrible struggle that came down to a final shot. In this case it was a 3-pointer by Norfolk State star center Kyle O’Quinn that rimmed off to give MU the two point win. The game showed some of the same weaknesses that has plagued MU:

1. trouble against a zone,
2. Vander Blue struggled to a scoreless 0 for 7 night as the Spartans sagged back for his drives,
3. Seemingly left Spartans wide open for 3-point attempts way too often,
4. some tightening up at the line and from the floor by the young stars as they experienced their first tight game, and
5. the poor performance when playing back-to-back games (see the complete list of MUs 3 wins in 9 games).

Marquette also lost the turnover battle 14-12 with some very sloppy play, and perhaps more importantly lost the foul battle 15-16. The fact that they couldn’t draw fouls against the zone was almost the difference, as DJO stepped to the line with 28 seconds left and a one-on-one, rather than two shots. When he missed the front end to leave the score 59-57 it gave the Spartans the shot at the game-winner.

However, Marquette finished the night with their first tournament trophy under Buzz, and with some valuable experience for the young players who had been able to play loose with big leads up until this point. The good news:

1. Chris Otule battled NBA prospect Kyle O’Quinn tough again, getting two quick fouls on him, rejecting 4 more shots, and staying almost even with him in rebounds (13-9) to allow only 10 points (one on a 35 foot three-pointer as the shot clock expired),
2. When no one else seemed to know how to attack the zone, Davante Gardner was the only answer for stretches, getting 7 points and 7 rebounds in 15 minutes,
3. Amidst the struggles, Marquette got the leadership it needed from the seniors (Crowder 14 points, 11 rebounds and smart play with 4 fouls while DJO 20 points on 6 of 7 free throws) and starting point guard (6 more assists for Junior and 4 of 7 from the floor to make them respect the shot and drive).

Marquette gets a week off before a warm-up against Jacksonville next Monday, followed by the December 3 shot down at Wisconsin against the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation. I’m sure Bo Ryan will take a lot of notes from last night on slowing MU down, and the Badgers will be coming off a trip to Chapel Hill to face UNC.

Norfolk State now joins Villanova, Cincinnati and Georgetown as our favorite teams, as each game each of these teams wins or loses will count TWICE in our RPI and Pomeroy rankings. Below are the results of games under Buzz Williams in which the team has either played in the third game of a tournament, or on back-to-back nights against D1 teams (didn’t count Chaminade).

Opponent on 2nd straight night/3rd game of tourney	Result
Dayton	L75-89
Villanova	L75-76
Florida State	L56-57
Villanova	W80-76
Georgetown	L57-80
Gonzaga	L63-66
West Virginia	W67-61
Louisville	L56-81
Norfolk State	W59-57
Average Score	L65-71

The Little Things in Life: Overseas Essentials

2011-11-20T21:00:00.000-06:00

I consider myself very lucky to make a career out of doing what I love, playing basketball. Of course, there are always positives and negatives to every situation. Living overseas for 8-10 months a year makes you miss some things in America that aren't available here. A common conversation with my fellow American teammates is talking about what we miss from back home, usually centering around the foods we crave. Right now, nothing would make me happier than to devour a double chicken burrito with rice, black beans, salsa, sour cream, and extra cheese from Chipotle! PizzaHut is right down the block from my apartment, but a large pizza costs 3,000Yen (about $40!). Heck, I’d even settle for finding a restaurant that serves a regular American breakfast. This being my 4th season living overseas, I am very used to adapting to a new country, it’s lifestyle, and food. Eventually you get used to not being able to read ANYTHING, from road signs to food labels. You get used to using a public restroom and having to “pay-to-pee” in Europe, or banking on no paper towels to wash your hands in Japan. You also get used to watching only CNN on TV, because that’s the only channel in English. These are just a couple examples of everyday life overseas. I've got a list of essential items that I pack every year that make living away from America a bit more manageable. Most of mine center on technology and food/drink.

1. Slingbox

Slingbox may be one of the greatest inventions ever. It connects any cable box in the world to your laptop or iPad. Basically, I can control my home DirecTV in Minnesota from my laptop in Japan. This makes it easy to catch my favorite shows like SportsCenter, PTI, The Office, Entourage, etc. With the 15-hour time difference, it makes it a bit complicated, so you may have a remote battle with those back home trying to watch the same TV! It allows me to catch my little brother's basketball games who plays for the Air Force Academy, and of course our Marquette Golden Eagles! I'll just have to set my alarm in the morning the next day here to catch the live tip-off.

2. iPhone

The club here in Sendai gives us a nation-wide cell phone, but my iPhone comes in very handy. Paired with our portable Wi-Fi device here in Japan, we are always connected online, making our long road trips much more enjoyable. Basketball players these days can’t seem to go anywhere without access to their Facebook and Twitter, and I am no different (FOLLOW ME at DanielJohnFitz!). Also, I downloaded a translation App that works great at the supermarket. It translates all languages, and converts currency too. Do you know how much 4,000 yen is in dollars? “Wakaranai.”

3. iPad

This is a new addition to my "must-have" list, but it was the best gift my wife has ever given me! I no longer have to bring a case full of DVDs, CDs, books, or even a laptop on all these long bus trips. The iPad is a one-stop shop for all my entertainment needs. As you can see, I am certainly on Team Apple! RIP Steve Jobs.

4. Skype

Skype allows me to make voice and video calls over the internet. I can call or chat with anyone who has Skype on their computer for free, or for a very small fee, I can call any landline or mobile phone in the world. It is the best way to stay connected while away from friends and family. I have it on all my devices, iPhone, iPad, and laptop. Paired with my portable Wi-Fi, I can reach anyone back home anytime. Of course, you have to coordinate a good time to call, as Japan's 15 hour time difference makes it challenging. The video function is especially awesome, check it out if you haven't already as it is even useful in the states.

5. Camera

So far, I've been to a dozen countries and have seen a lot in my 4 years playing professionally. That's a lot of memories that I want to remember, and of course people back home want to see how my wife and I are living. Fortunately for me, my wife is a talented professional photographer, so she takes all the pictures. Check out her picture blog at DominikaIrminaPhotography.com.

6. Hot Sauce

Every new country brings new adventures with their foreign cuisine. So far, Japanese dining has been the biggest change for me compared to any other place I've lived. I'm not a seafood fan, so I'm at a serious disadvantage here. Check out this basic Japanese kids’ box lunch.

I love all hot sauce, but my go-to brand is Frank's Red Hot. It goes on everything from eggs to pasta, to whatever the heck that stuff is above! Some different foods I've had this year in Japan include seaweed wrapped rice balls with raw salmon inside, curry rice and beef, baby octopus, and a Sendai staple, grilled cow tongue! Frank's Red Hot makes all these taste better(or at least, edible)!

7. Gatorade powder

I love Gatorade, I drink it all the time. It's not nearly as popular as it is in America, and sometimes nonexistent. If the country does have it, they have one flavor sold in a tiny bottle. It will also be expensive. I haven't seen any Gatorade sold here in Japan, so I stocked up on Gatorade powder before I left home. Living overseas, you find that they won't have your basics from home, just something that's close to it. Japan has a sports drink that is close to it, called Pocari Sweat (not the best connotation, right?). It's similar to Gatorade, just not quite the same.

8. Deodorant

Before coming to Japan, I was told to bring deodorant. Apparently, they don't use it here as much as we do in the states. Our sticks are bigger and much stronger. I never would have thought I needed to bring a year’s supply of SpeedStick, but every country is different. So, do your homework before you head abroad, no one likes to guard the smelly guy!

I love my job and it has made my life a lot of fun and an exciting adventure! But there really is no place like home. The place where you can get breakfast at 3am, a Hot ‘N Ready Pizza for $5, watch Monday Night Football, on monday night!, identify what you’re eating before you eat it (I've had mystery meat plenty of times), read and fully comprehend street signs, and buy a liter of Riptide Rush Gatorade at a gas station with the change in your car’s ash tray! God Bless the good 'ole US of A!

GO Marquette!

-Daniel Fitzgerald '08

MU goes over 90 points for 4th straight game - this time against 5th best scoring defense in country

2011-11-20T19:35:00.014-06:00

Something had to give with Marquette scoring 95.0 a game (2nd scoring offense in country) and Mississippi giving up 45.3 points per game (5th scoring defense in country).

Top Defenses	Pts All	Top Offenses	Pts Scored
Wisconsin	35.0	Memphis	97.0
St. Louis	39.5	Marquette	95.0
St. Marys	41.0	Iowa	93.0
Virginia	44.5	Texas	92.3
Mississippi	45.3	Iona	92.0
Norfolk St (since MU)	50.6

The answer came fast - as Marquette shredded Mississippi's defense for more than their 45.3 average IN THE FIRST 17 1/2 MINUTES OF THE GAME. How did MU do that without letting one of the best shotblocking teams in the country block a single shot during those 17 1/2 minutes?

Look at Junior Cadougan's 6 assists - as he has helped MU become the top assist team in the country - and look at Vander Blue's 4 steals. MU came into the game with an incredible 59 points off of 36 steals, and scored 12 quick fast break points off of rebounds en route to a 40-12 lead. Mississippi never threatened after that, with the game ending 96-66. MU is now scoring 1.52 points per trip after they steal the ball, compared to an already excellent 1.21 points per trip on all other trips (1.0 is the national average).

	Steals	Points	Ave.	Other Poss.	Points	Ave.
Mount	19	33	1.74	53	58	1.09
Norfolk	11	17	1.55	73	82	1.12
Winthrop	6	9	1.50	67	86	1.28
Miss	8	8	1.00	67	88	1.31
Total	44	67	1.52	260	314	1.21

Marquette now faces a Norfolk State team that they already scored 99 points against this season, for the Paradise Jam championship tonight at 7:30 p.m. CST. Except for that game, Norfolk State would have the 10th best scoring defense in the country due to shutting down both TCU and the favorite to win the CAA conference over VCU, ODU and George Mason.

So while Jae Crowder's seven for seven start shooting en route to 25 points, and DJOs 20 led the scoring again, Marquette is blowing teams out by transition from defense to offense.

However, Marquette also showed they can use their passing in half court games with the re-emergence of Davante Gardner, who scored 15 POINTS in 14 MINUTES, including 9 for 9 from the line. Gardner was not as key in the first three games because MU was running up and down the court - but he was still 8 of 10 from the floor in those three games, so MU has a key option if someone can slow them into a half court game.

As you can see from the table below, 29 of the 44 times Marquette has stolen the ball this year they have either scored on a dunk or lay-up, or been fouled almost immediately or at the rim. A few other times they settled for open treys.

Steal by	Points	Opponent	At the rim?
Blue	2	Mount	fouled immediately
Wilson, J	0	Mount
Crowder	2	Mount	layup
Blue	2	Mount	foul 8 seconds later
Blue	2	Mount	layup
Wilson, D	2	Mount	fouled immediately (intentional)
Crowder	0	Mount
Jones	2	Mount	dunk
Gardner	2	Mount
Cadougan	2	Mount	fouled in 9 seconds
DJO	2	Mount	dunk
DJO	2	Mount	dunk
Cadougan	0	Mount
Crowder	2	Mount	layup
DJO	2	Mount	layup
Crowder	2	Mount	layup
Jones	3	Mount	Mayo and 1
Blue	2	Mount
Wilson, J	2	Mount	layup
Jones, J	0	Norfolk
Crowder	0	Norfolk
Cadougan	0	Norfolk
Crowder	3	Norfolk
DJO	2	Norfolk	layup
Wilson	2	Norfolk	layup
Wilson, J	2	Norfolk	foul 7 seconds later
Crowder	0	Norfolk
Otule	2	Norfolk	foul 4 seconds later
DJO	3	Norfolk
Mayo	3	Norfolk
Crowder	1	Winthrop	fouled 4 seconds later
Blue	2	Winthrop	dunk
DJO	0	Winthrop	fouled 1 second later
DJO	2	Winthrop	dunk
Wilson, J	2	Winthrop	layup
Gardner	2	Winthrop	layup
Otule	0	Mississippi
Blue	0	Mississippi	dunk
Blue	2	Mississippi	dunk
Blue	1	Mississippi	foul 3 seconds later
Otule	2	Mississippi	foul 3 seconds later
Blue	1	Mississippi	foul 3 seconds later
Mayo	2	Mississippi
Jones	0	Mississippi
Total	1.52	Ave per steal	17 dunks/layups, 12 quick fouls

Mox Articulus Syndrome

2011-11-20T07:05:00.002-06:00

As I've cruised the Internet superhighway the past week or so, I've been amazed at some of the things I've learned about this Marquette team. I've seen Vander Blue compared to Butch Lee and Earl Tatum. I've heard that Todd Mayo should average 25-28 minutes per game and will be the lock-down defender we need to replace Jimmy Butler. Another highlight is that despite our "low" media and coaches poll rankings, kenpom.com has Marquette as the 10th best team in the country. I've even seen one article listing Marquette as the favorite to win both the Big East regular season and tournament titles.

I attribute this to Mox Articulus Syndrome, which roughly translates from Latin as "Early Season Syndrome". Doctors recognize MAS (or ESS) as a condition that afflicts not only Marquette fans, but a heavy majority of sports fans. The same condition convinced Wisconsin fans that their football team was a national championship contender, had Detroit Lion fans believing they were going to win the Super Bowl, led Pittsburgh Pirate fans to believe their team could make the playoffs, and last year assured Michigan State fans that their team was the best basketball team in the country.

It can be a lot of fun to watch these early-season games and try to project what will happen the rest of the way. But before we get to carried away, let's look at some of the other things early-season games would have had us believing the past few years.

2010-11 Season

The Hype

Four games in, Dwight Buycks was ready to be an elite PG. He was averaging 12.3 ppg, 4.8 apg, and was a 63.6% three-point shooter.
In non-conference play, Vander Blue proved he was ready for this level. 9.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, and 1.8 spg in 26.4 mpg. Fully worthy of his 5-star rating and a possible NBA draft early-entrant.
Ten games in, DJO was looking overrated. If you discount his 29-point outburst against UW-Milwaukee, he was averaging 11.8 ppg and shooting 18.4% from three.

The Reality

Buycks was a serviceable starter, but no star. For the season, he averaged 8.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, and 41.1% from three. He also saw his minutes diminish: Buycks averaged 23.2 mpg over the last 9 games after averaging 29.8 mpg in his first 27 games.
Big East play was a reality check for Blue. Over Marquette's final 20 games, he averaged 1.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.7 apg, and 0.4 spg in 13.3 mpg. He only reached double-digit scoring once and was held without a single point in 11 of his last 20 games.
DJO was playing possum. By the time the season was over, he was Marquette's leading scorer at 15.8 ppg, and hit 39.3% from long range after those initial 10 games.

2009-10 Season

The Hype

This one was simple: we weren't very good. Our 9-3 non-conference record didn't look that impressive when the signature win over #15 Michigan fell to 6-5 before Big Ten play began. We followed that up by starting 2-5 in Big East play, including a loss to lowly DePaul.

The Reality

Marquette won 9 of their next 10 and went into the NCAAs as a 6-seed. Sadly, their penchant for losing leads came back to bite them as Washington overcame a 15-point second-half deficit.

2008-09 Season

The Hype

14 games in, Dominic James was too erratic; 2.2 turnovers per game and frequent foul trouble -- 5 times he's had 4 fouls.
5 games in, Patrick Hazel is a solid 6th man, averaging 5.4 ppg and 4.2 rpg in 17.6 mpg.
7 games in, David Cubillan is clearly James' backup, averaging 4.7 ppg and 1.9 apg in 18.3 mpg.

The Reality

James calmed down. He only averaged 1.5 tpg the rest of the year and only once reached 4 fouls -- in a game he played all 40 minutes.
Jimmy Butler was the 6th man. Starting in December, Butler averaged 5.9 ppg and 4.2 rpg in 20.5 mpg. Hazel only once eclipsed 20 minutes and had 14 DNPs.
When James went down, it was Maurice Acker who filled in. Acker played 30.4 mpg from the UConn game onward.

I may not be a doctor, but I'm sure Dr. Blackheart would agree that Mount St. Mary's, Norfolk State, and Winthrop are a far cry from Villanova, Georgetown, and Syracuse. It's easy to catch Mox Articulus Syndrome, but the best part is that it seems to work itself out of the system within 2-3 months. And if any of us don't find ourselves cured by mid-February, well, that means this team really is as good as we're hoping. Even still, it's far safer to guard your optimism. After all, these results are nothing more than eating cupcakes in November.

Unstoppable MU offense vs. Mississippi’s immovable defense Sunday at 7:30 p.m.?

2011-11-19T03:36:00.004-06:00

In my preseason picks I had MU cruising on offense to an easy 3-0 start, before a combination of being in the Virgin Islands and facing their first tough defense from Drake or Mississippi dropped them to 3-1. Obviously tomorrow I will be hoping I was wrong in the preseason.

Vander Blue’s explosion Friday night to hit his first 9 shots, including two treys, en route to a 95-73 win caps an incredible opening three games during which MU scored an average of 17 points per game MORE than predicted for an average 95-60 win on 76 trips per game down the court:

1st 3 games	MU	Opponents	Trips
Predicted	78	60	67
Actual	95	60	76

However, heading into Sunday’s clash, Mississippi’s defense has also been even better than expected, with the top shot-blocking duo in the country leading by far the best defense MU will have faced:

Defense Faced	Rank
Mount St. Mary’s	223rd
Norfolk State	246th
Winthrop	133rd
Mississippi (Sunday)	27th

MUs 99-point performance against Norfolk State did look even more impressive when Norfolk State shut out Drexel for more than six minutes Friday night en route to a huge upset that pits them against TCU in the other semifinal that will determine MUs opponent Monday night at 7:30 CST, should the Warriors win Sunday night.

But when you match up MU’s incredible offensive punch against Mississippi’s defense, you see this will be a real test position-by-position.

Position	MU offense	Mississippi Defense
PG	MU leads nation in assists behind Junior’s 20; D. Wilson’s 1 turnover in 48 minutes	NINE! Steals Friday between Nelson (6) and Aniefiok (3)
SG	DJO 20 ppg, 4 apg; Mayo 23 pts in last 33 minutes on 5 of 8 treys	Ex-MU recruit Nick Williams their one guard with size (6-4, 225) to rebound without fouling
SF	Vander 17 of 25 shooting (68%) but may need J. Jones & Anderson height vs. Miss	6-7 Holloway averaged 7.4 rebounds as soph before sitting out last year
PF	Crowder leads in rebounds (22), steals (8) & 2nd in scoring; J. Wilson may be key	At 6-9, Henry a matchup problem and one of top shot-blockers and rebounders (14 Reb. Friday)
C	Otule 9 ppg, 5 rpg; Gardner 8 of 10 from floor	Cox may start, but 6-8 Buckner 2nd best shot blocker in country behind James of Flo St.

Is MU so confident and on a roll that they can overcome Mississippi’s defense to set up a Monday night championship game against upset winners Norfolk State or TCU, or will Mississippi be able to frustrate MU and grind out the win?
Among players returning to a major conference, the following are the top shot-blockers based on the percentage of opponents’ two-points shots they block:

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	%Blks
1	Bernard James	Florida St.	6-f-10	13.46
2	Reginald Buckner	Mississippi	6-f-8	13.07
3	Ty Walker	Wake Forest	7-f-0	12.71
4	John Henson	North Carolina	6-f-10	11.56
5	Festus Ezeli	Vanderbilt	6-f-11	10.59
6	Daniel Miller	Georgia Tech	6-f-11	9.78
7	Terrence Jennings	Louisville	6-f-9	9
8	Chris Otule	Marquette	6-f-11	8.87
9	Ralph Sampson	Minnesota	6-f-11	8.57
10	JaMychal Green	Alabama	6-f-8	8.24

Wilsons, Jones & Mayo part of best statistical performance of past decade

2011-11-15T16:03:00.004-06:00

In their first appearances as Marquette players, Todd Mayo, Derrick Wilson and Jamil Wilson were part of the most impressive team statistical performance in the past decade, a performance followed up by MU performing like a Top 10 team vs. Norfolk State.

Todd Mayo provided the instant offense on Monday night with two 3-point bombs, 2 assists and 4-4 free throw shooting IN ONLY 15 MINUTES in the 99-68 win over Norfolk. But it is Marquette’s defense that is now ranked 15th in the country by Pomeroy due in large part to both Wilsons and Jamail Jones (who played only 111 minutes last year) all grabbing multiple steals in the first two games to add to the amazing 16 steals from the trio of Blue, DJO and Crowder.

Marquette is creating impressive margins of victory by ending opponents' possessions on steals one in five trips down the court (7th best in the country), then turning those steals into points at the other end with an impressive fast break. MU's biggest margin of victory in more than 300 games during the past 10 years had been a 48-point margin over Division II Lewis University in the Three Amigos freshman season, and the 31-point margin Monday night over Norfolk State and NBA prospect Kyle O’Quinn (who Chris Otule held to 4 points) was the 20th biggest victory margin.

Statistically Marquette will only be about a 6-point favorite in the 2nd and 3rd games of the upcoming tournament (vs. Mississippi/Drake and then Drexel/TCU/Virginia), and there will be bad games as well as good with all the new players. However, a team that can play even some games at the level of the first two outings has the potential to beat anyone in the country.

Better statistical win than OSU/Maui or No. 1 Kentucky

To clarify, beating Mount St. Mary’s is not an “important” win.

The most important win of the era was MU’s only win in history over a No. 1 ranked team. This featured Dwyane Wade’s dunk-and-one on Kentucky center Marquis Estill en route to an 83-69 win and a return to the Final Four. Under the “Game Score” I presented last year to simplify the way Sagarin and Pomeroy calculate ratings, MU received a 108 for that game – the 6th best performance of the past 10 years.

The Game Score is based on three factors; margin of victory (“Mar” on table below), strength of opponent (“Opp”) and where the game was played (“Ven” for venue).

A Game Score of 100 or more indicates the team probably would have beaten anyone in the country, even on the road, that night. (The 25 times MU has done that in 298 games vs. D1 teams are on the table below) If MU averaged a 104 Game Score all year like they have through two games, then they would be a unanimous No. 1 in all polls – but of course they won’t.

If MU averaged a “92” like against Norfolk State Monday night, then they would finish in the Top 10. (this was the 75th best performance of the decade)

A Game Score of 70 or lower means that the team probably would have lost to any Top 200 team, even playing at home, that night. (the 20 times MU has done that are also included on the table).

Until this weekend the best statistical game Marquette had played in the decade was the 91-61 victory over Oklahoma State at the Maui Invitational, which Cracked Sidewalks summed up as, “In short: Wow. This was a 40 minute highlight reel.”

This does not mean that Marquette is really as good as they played against Mount St. Mary’s, or even necessarily a Top 10 team like they played Monday.

Brad Stevens summed it up best when he told his Butler players two years ago that 5 times a year you play much better than you are, 5 times a year you play worse than you are, and it’s the other 20 games that determine your season. These could end up being two games in which MU played over their heads.

MU wasn’t as good as it played in beating Notre Dame by 22 last year in one of its best 10 performances of the decade, or as bad as it was in losing by 25 to Louisville last year in one of its worst 10 performances of the decade, but each game gathers a little more evidence as to how good the team really is, and the first two are setting the bar very high.

Anticipating potential skeptics responses

1. Margins against Cupcakes aren’t a true indication of ability. In fact, both Pomeroy and Sagarin have shown over time that beating the 200th best team in the country by 30 is about as good a predictor as beating the No. 1 team in the country by 5 points. Keep in mind it is your average Game Score over 10 or more games that starts to make your overall evaluation accurate.

2. Mount St. Mary’s had players hurt and had to play a 7-man rotation. True, and Notre Dame had a starter out when we drubbed them last year. What people don’t realize is that losing one of your best players for a game usually cost a team only about 5 points in your final margin. Even though your best player may score 18 points, etc., when he is out the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players all have more opportunities to score, rebound, etc., and without going into pages of math, you lose about 5 points – which is huge. However, I have to contradict one comment from a good colleague that perhaps the Mount St. Mary’s margin would have been 25 to 30 points instead of 54 if they were at full strength – mathematically I can only say “no way.” You might lose 10 points in margin with a few players out and playing with seven, but even with that Friday night’s performance would have been one of the best 10 in the past decade AND if you made adjustments for that you would also adjust UP games like Norfolk State when the opponent was at full strength.

3. Pomeroy and Sagarin don't mean anything at the beginning of the season. While it is true the ratings of MU and their opponents' will become more accurate the more games are played, the starting point has become more and more accurate as preseason numbers are factored in based on what percent of last year's stats return to create a new rating. Marquette's average "Game Score" of 104 would make it the No. 1 team in the country by far if that's all that was used, but every team is given a starting point (21st for Marquette) that is the heavier weight until enough games have been played - but still Marquette has moved into the Top 10 in both Pomeroy and on Sagarin's predictor because their first two performances have been so much better than would be expected of a 21st-ranked team.

4. Stats like this are a bunch of bull. Don’t have an answer for that one – you can have just as much fun watching this team harass opponents whether or not you care about number-crunching.

Here is the table of the best and the worst games from the past decade – with the Norfolk State game thrown in as the 75th best performance.

Rnk	Opponent	Date	Season	Mar	Opp	Ven	Game Score
1	Mount St. Mary's	Fri Nov 11	2012	54	66	-4	116
2	Oklahoma St.	Tue Nov 20	2008	30	82	0	112
3	Detroit	Tue Nov 14	2007	42	73	-4	111
4	St. John's	Wed Mar 11	2009	29	76	4	109
5	Northern Iowa	Fri Nov 28	2009	30	79	0	109
6	Kentucky	Sat Mar 29	2003	14	94	0	108
7	West Virginia	Sat Jan 10	2009	22	90	-4	108
8	Cincinnati	Sun Jan 4	2009	34	78	-4	108
9	Notre Dame	Mon Jan 10	2011	22	89	-4	107
10	Notre Dame	Sat Jan 12	2008	26	85	-4	107
11	Seton Hall	Tue Feb 12	2008	25	77	4	106
12	Providence	Thu Jan 3	2008	29	80	-4	105
13	South Florida	Sat Jan 11	2003	33	76	-4	105
14	Coppin St.	Fri Dec 21	2008	47	62	-4	105
15	Providence	Sun Jan 17	2010	30	78	-4	104
16	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Fri Nov 30	2008	35	73	-4	104
17	Louisville	Mon Jan 15	2007	9	89	4	102
18	Connecticut	Tue Jan 3	2006	15	91	-4	102
19	Connecticut	Thu Feb 24	2011	7	90	4	101
20	Louisville	Tue Mar 2	2010	21	84	-4	101
21	East Carolina	Wed Jan 29	2003	32	73	-4	101
22	Wisconsin	Sat Dec 8	2008	5	91	4	100
23	Pittsburgh	Fri Feb 15	2008	18	86	-4	100
24	Presbyterian	Sun Dec 28	2009	39	65	-4	100
25	Duke	Tue Nov 21	2007	11	89	0	100
75	Norfolk St.	Mon Nov 14	2012	31	65	-4	92
279	Providence	Thu Jan 4	2007	-15	80	4	69
280	Winthrop	Sat Nov 19	2006	-7	80	-4	69
281	Notre Dame	Mon Dec 2	2003	-21	85	4	68
282	Syracuse	Sun Jan 7	2007	-12	84	-4	68
283	St. John's	Tue Feb 15	2011	-12	84	-4	68
284	Canisius	Mon Dec 15	2004	3	69	-4	68
285	Charlotte	Sat Jan 22	2005	-10	81	-4	67
286	North Dakota St.	Sat Dec 2	2007	-4	75	-4	67
287	Georgetown	Fri Mar 12	2010	-23	89	0	66
288	Dayton	Sat Nov 29	2009	-14	80	0	66
289	Sacred Heart	Mon Dec 29	2004	5	64	-4	65
290	Texas Christian	Tue Feb 3	2004	-6	74	-4	64
291	Louisville	Thu Mar 10	2011	-25	89	0	64
292	Memphis	Sat Feb 14	2004	-18	85	-4	63
293	Western Michigan	Mon Mar 14	2005	-14	80	-4	62
294	Kansas	Sat Apr 5	2003	-33	95	0	62
295	St. Louis	Sat Mar 5	2005	-12	74	-4	58
296	UAB	Wed Feb 2	2005	-23	81	-4	54
297	Louisville	Wed Jan 26	2005	-47	91	4	48
298	Southern Mississippi	Fri Jan 16	2004	-22	71	-2	47

MU rises to No. 1 in steals and 11th best team in country with dominant "40 Minutes of Hell"

2011-11-12T22:27:00.002-06:00

Friday Marquette played BY FAR its best season opener since joining the Big East, stealing the ball on 26.5 percent of all trips down the court and forcing a turnover on 43.3% of all trips, both the top mark of any team in the country.

People are tempted to lump all wins over cupcakes together, but this was anything but.

Since joining the Big East, the average Pomeroy ranking of MU’s opening season opponent has been 273rd, and Marquette has averaged winning by only 18 points. Mount St. Mary’s was an above-average opening day opponent (257th even after the drubbing), and Marquette won by 54 points, 91-37.

Year	Opening opponent	Rank	Margin
2005	Western Carolina	288	11
2006	Rice	201	17
2007	Hillsdale	350	10
2008	IUPUI	91	8
2009	Houston Baptist	324	31
2010	Centenary	320	23
2011	Prairie View A&M	338	29
2005-11	Average	273	18
2012	Mount St. Mary's	257	54

Marquette’s performance was so impressive that MU improved from 21st to 11th in Pomeroy in just one game – but it’s the suffocating defense that truly indicates the potential of this team.

11-man rotation makes "40 Minutes of Hell" possible

MU is so deep that it’s hard to see how they let up with a big lead. Who is their weakest player? Derrick Wilson? Are you sure? The guy Buzz called the best freshman defender he has ever had who looks like he has the same toughness and football mentality of another MU great to turn down football scholarships, Tony Miller? Then maybe it’s Todd Mayo. Really? Looks like he has all the confidence of his his brother O.J. Mayo who is now playing in the pros. Jamail Jones, who didn’t play much last year? He is still consider a potential NBA draft pick who put in 10 points Friday. Go through everyone on the roster.

So while Vander Blue and Jae Crowder, two of the top steals guy in the country, both came up with another four steals each Friday, the real story is that Marquette has NINE players who can pick you clean while being backed up by the best returning shot-blocker in the Big East in Chris Otule.

As a result, for the second time in two years, Marquette threw a defense on the court Friday that looked like Nolan Richardson’s "40 Minutes of Hell" that led Arkansas to the national title in 1994.

The first time was from November 26-29, 2009, when Marquette absolutely blitzed Xavier, Michigan and Florida State by cutting off every passing lane with a suffocating defense for two upsets and then a 17-point lead before running out of gas.

I saw in that series the potential for what Buzz might be able to do with pressure defense. However, the chance to maintain that level of pressure in 2009-2010 ended when Jeronne Maymon left the team two weeks later MU was left with a 7-man rotation – including Joe Fulce playing through injiury. MU was also 324th in the country in blocking shots, meaning a broken press would probably result in an easy basket at the rim.

In 2009-10, MU still stole the ball 12.1% of opponents trip down the court that season, the 32nd best total in the country, despite having to dial it back with only two players coming in off the bench, and Fulce for only 10 or 12 minutes.

Obviously in big games MU will want DJO and Jae on the court more than 24 minutes a game, so you can't keep 11 players on the court 16-24 minutes each in those games. However, with 11 players this talented, Buzz has the option of running the hockey lines and going for steals as much as he wants in the right match-ups.

It's only one game, but this year could be good. Now let's see how Marquette does Monday against a dominant big man like Norfolk State's Kyle O'Quinn.

MU draws first blood . . . wins a laugher over Mt. St. Marys.

2011-11-12T11:02:00.004-06:00

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Buzz made it 4 for 4 in season openers, taking a laugher from the vastly undermanned and short-handed Mountaineers from Mount St. Mary's, 91 - 37.

The final was 91-37, and its hard to see where MU was ever seriously tested in this game--perhaps the biggest test was patience on the offense, as it seemed as if the victory margin could have easily been doubled if Buzz really wanted to turn up the offense.

To give MSM come credit, it would have made a great drinking game to hear how often "shorthanded," "only 7 scholarship players dressed," or some other variation was mentioned. Still, this was an opponent ranked 267 in the Pomeroy rankings last year--even at full strength they wouldn't have been much of a match. They're used to 50 point losses (as witnessed by their 62 point drubbing by Virginia Tech last year).

All five MU starters scored in the double digits, as did Jamail Jones off the bench. The newcomers all received extended time (excluding Juan Anderson, who was suspended for three games for accepting a free Brewers ticket). Scoring (as expected) was led by DJO's 16 points, Junior Cadougan dished out 10 assists, and Jae Crowder led rebounding with 6.

While it was tough to gauge how good the Warriors actually are with this level of opposition, there were some highlights:

The team hasn't lost a bit of quickness from last year.
As advertised, Davante Gardner has slimmed down and was just as effective inside on the offensive end
Jones looks to be a solid contributor and part of the rotation.
Cadougan was much better at running the offense
We run the break exceptionally well.

And a few things to work on:

3 point shooting was an abysmal 4 for 19.
Mount St. Mary's won far too many offensive rebounds and garnered too many 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th chances.
The half-court defense still extended too far, resulting in a couple of early open 3 point attempts. MSM missed, but they shouldn't have had the open look.
Jamil Wilson was on the floor less than any player other than Derrick Wilson.
Nobody has filled in the Frozena role on last year's team, creating confusion among fans as to who to yell "shoot" at whenever they touch the ball.

On to the next opponent, Norfolk State on Monday.

Links:

Coverage in the Milwaukee J/S

Statsheet.com's box score

ESPN Coverage

Complete coverage from GoMarquette.com