Big East Preview - Part One

I'm going to run this down from worst to first. My approach to the analysis is to look at five various factors to see how they might impact each of the teams in the Big East. The factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Read the previous post to get more insight. To get to the projected records, I started with last year's numbers and then revised up and down based on stat performance, returning minutes, incoming talent, etc. Those projections are as good as any projection at this time of year. However, I think the real value of the preview is in the bonus factors or red flags that pop up for each team.


Today's preview focuses on the bottom eight teams in conference.

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The Bottom of the Barrel
These three teams show that it's hard to dig yourself out

#16 - DePaul

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, DePaul (6-12), should have finished with a record of 5.4 - 12.6. Yay?
  
• Consistency - Unfortunately for DePaul, they were one of the most consistent teams in the league. Being consistently bad is less than desireable. Red Flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - DePaul returns one of the fewest number of junior and senior leadership. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, DePaul is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 4-14. Sorry, but someone has to be worst in the league. Kind of a shame, too, because Jerry Wainright is doing something really cool this offseason.

#15 - St. John's

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, St John's (5-13), should have finished with a record of 4.6 - 13.4
  
• Consistency - No impact. St. John's was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - St. John's returns the fewest number of junior and senior leadership in the Big East, highlighted by the transfer of the productive Larry Wright. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, St John's is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 5-13. Let's just move on

#14 - South Florida

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, USF (3-15), should have finished with a record of 4.9 - 13.1. Look for some correction this year. Bonus
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average, although South Florida does lose massive big man Kentrell Gransberry
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, USF is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list, but coach Stan Health will welcome seven (7!) new players to the program this fall. Let's see what they can do.
  

Projection - 5-13. I give South Florida a modest two game improvement in 2008-2009 based on last year's underperformance and the sublime play of sophomore-to-be Dominique James, but no more than that because of the loss of Gransberry.

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The dangerous road game
These three teams will probably be towards the bottom of the league, but that doesn't mean they won't be tough to beat on any given night.

#13 - Seton Hall

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Seton Hall (7-11), should have finished with a record of 6.3 - 11.7 last year.
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. Seton Hall was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average just on the numbers, although the Pirates also lost senior leader Brian Laing and notable Dominic James fouling machine Jamar Nutter. Note that Seton Hall also expects to return steals leader Paul Gause, who was injured for much of the year.
  
• Expected Regression - Seton Hall can expect some modest regression towards 0.500, but I don't think it's significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list though the Pirates will welcome perhaps the best transfer player into the Big East this year in 6'6" Robert Mitchell. Mitchell played one year at Duquesne and was one of the nation's best freshmen, averaging better than 16 points and 5 boards per game.
  

Projection - 6-12. Everything's vanilla with Seton Hall (except for Bobby Gonzalez). Nothing significantly noteworthy in the stats.

#12 - Cincinnati

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Cincy (8-10), should have finished with a record of 7.2 - 10.8
  
• Consistency - Cincy was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. That means that they probably won more games than they should have last year. Red flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - On top of being inconsistent last year, Cincinnati also returns one of the fewest amount of junior and senior minutes this year. Not a good combo. Red flag
  
• Expected Regression - No real impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The Bearcats welcome two players on the RSCI Top 100 list. 6'8" PF Yancy Gates (#41) and 6' G Cashmere Wright (#94) join their program this year. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. Despite the addition of two talented players, I think the inconsistency from last year and the relatively few experienced players mean that Cincinnati is due to drop down this year.

#11 - Rutgers

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Rutgers (3-15), should have finished with a record of 3.5 - 14.5
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly more inconsistent than the league average last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - No impact. Rutgers is about league average
  
• Expected Regression - Based simply on being one of the worst teams in conference last year, Rutgers is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fred Hill is bringing in a spate of talented players to the Rutgers team. This year they'll add 6'1 sharpshooter Mike Rosario (#44), 6'9" big man Greg Echinique, and 6'9" Christian Morris. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. This might be a reach, but I'm predicting a decent three game jump for the Scarlet Knights this year.

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Fighting for that Tournament Berth
These two teams will be somewhere around 0.500 and they'll probably be in contention for the eight or nine bids the Big East is expected to receive in the NCAA Tournament this year.

#10 - Providence

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Providence (6-12), should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9 last year. This certainly contributed to the hiring of a new coach this offseason. Bonus
  
• Consistency - Providence was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. While it might means that they probably won more games than they should have last year, I believe their underperformance indicates otherwise. I have to flag it but it's worth watching. Red flag (possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact, though a return to health for point guard Sharaud Curry will make Keno Davis' transition to the Big East much smoother. Curry missed nearly all of last season with a stress fracture in his right foot. Providence is slightly above league average, even with the transfer of productive point guard Dwain Williams.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on where they finished last year, Providence should expect a solid boost just by virtue of a regression towards 0.500. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 8-10. Who's ready for some "Keno Davis turnaround" stories? Based on some expected team improvements, Providence should be better than last year. If Davis can get PC to play more consistently, this team may surprise.

#9 - Villanova

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Villanova (9-9), should have finished with a record of 8.3 - 9.7
  
• Consistency - No impact. Villanova was right at league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact. Villanova is slightly above average for returning junior and senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 9-9. It seems unfair to put Villanova this low, especially since they are returning almost everyone from a team that made the Sweet 16 last year. However, this is part of why the Big East is such a tough conference, and also why pundits are saying the Big East may get nine bids in March. I'm just not seeing anything where Villanova is expecting a big bonus or red flag from the stats. And at the end of the day, I just don't think they're better than the top eight teams even when you factor in expected year-to-year player development.

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Speaking of the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), we'll cover the remainder tomorrow.

Contributions from NYWarrior. Thanks
*edit - Messed up the Villanova results from last year

Cincy Numbers Recap

Great win for the team yesterday. After a very ugly start to the game, which gave a lot of us a "not again" feeling, the team played very well getting back into the game and building a lead. Looking at the statistical analysis, below is a view of the Four Factors for yesterday's game.

It's nice to see Marquette maintain an advantage in almost all areas. Interestingly enough, Marquette did not have an advantage on the Turnover Rate for one of the few times in Big East play. Furthermore, MU managed to get the effective Field Goal Percentage to 50% for the first time since against Notre Dame. The team also managed to keep the opponent from getting to the free throw line. Finally, as has been mentioned Marquette finally managed to out-rebound an opponent, especially on the Offensive end.

Despite the fact that Marquette out-rebounded their opponent for the first time in eight games, it still wasn't a very good performance at 31%. At one point this season, we were averaging over 45% at offensive rebounding. Looking at the chart below, we still have a trend where the team is not doing well at either end on the boards.


Individual Performances

For the individual performances, it does seem a little surprising that McNeal ends up as the statistical stud of the game. A great deal of this has to do with his seven assists and zero turnovers. However, as has already been covered, Ousmane Barro had a great game yesterday. Note that Barro only gets credit (rightly) for 12.7 points produced, because a lot of his success has to also do with the quality of assists he was receiving from the guards. Furthermore, it's nice to see both Hayward and Matthews have net positive games.

At this snapshot of the season, Hayward has moved past both McNeal and James to be the statistical MVP of the season. The entire team has 278 net points, which is the sum of all of our win margins. Lazar has contributed 65.7 of those net points, which is greatest on the team. McNeal (60.6 net points) and James (57.7 net points) are not all that far behind, however.

Speaking of Wesley Matthews, it's safe to say that he is now back on track. Looking at the graph of his cumulative point contributions provides a nice way of viewing his progress. For help reading the graph, focus on the cumulative point contributions and whether or not the slope is upward or downward. Despite a middling-to-rough start to the season, Matthews has gradually been sloping upwards, even when the team has been doing poorly. It's been great to see his contributions the last few games, and let's hope that his early season struggles are behind him. At 23.0 net points for the season, he still has a ways to go to catch up to Lazar, McNeal, and James.

Not a lot of rest for the team or the fan base, as Marquette gets ready to face Louisville for the second time this season. We should all expect a much better game this time around. More on previews from the CS team later.

Marquette Breaks Seal - Beats UC on Road by 15

Marquette wins quality game at Cincinnati, 75-60.

After another slow start that had Marquette down 9 after 16 minutes of play, a new player hit the court. While #41 Ousmane Barro has been on Marquette's roster all year, this Ousamane Barro was someone entirely different.

This Oooze was hitting shot after shot, going 9 for 10.

This Ooze was grabbing rebound after rebound, ending the game with 10.

This Ooze has been on the back of a milk carton, missing in action for a score of games.

An evil twin, perhaps? Maybe it was Ousmane "Barrow", as ESPN flashed on the screen several times.

Lazar Hayward also had a superlative game again, hitting 19 points for the second game in a row. In total, 4 MU players hit double figures, with Ooze, Lazar, Matthews and McNeal reaching. McNeal also dished off a whopping 7 assists.

Scott Christoperson sparked MU's run, as he entered the game and 5 seconds later, promptly hit this 3: (props to TallTitan)



This is the first road win in the Big East for #16 Marquette (16-4, 6-3), who, let's face it, needed this win badly, losing the past 3 away from the Bradley Center. The win gives MU a solid grip on 3rd place in the Big East, with a 6-3 record. Half the BE season is now complete. Marquette will head into Monday's showdown with Louisville with some good mo-jo.

AP Recap / Play by Play / Box Score
Ooze Montage - Scoring Barrage
JS Online Recap
Rosiak - Wrapping up Cincy
Cincy Newspaper Story
Cincy Columnist on Game

For Marquette, the road awaits

UPDATED
Despite its 15-4 overall record and 5-3 start in Big East play, the Marquette Golden Eagles find themselves in a tenuous situation over the next ten days. The Golden Eagles' uneven play in their last seven games has created agita up and down Wells Street as the team moves into its most difficult stretch of Big East games. Beginning with Saturday's game at Cincinnati, the Golden Eagles play three of the next four contests on the road against teams that are positively surging -- Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall. Marquette's only home cooking will come against Louisville, a team that pounded them just a few weeks ago.

First up for Marquette is a trip to the Shoe to play Mick Cronin's surprising Cincinnati Bearcats (10-11, 5-4). The Bearcats return home after blowing out West Virginia in Morgantown, 62-39. Cincy dominated WVU in all facets of the game, most notably on the boards where the Bearcats enjoyed a +15 margin, while holding the Mountaineers to 20% shooting from the field.

The Bearcats are led by sophomore point guard Deonta Vaughn. Vaughn is the only Bearcat averaging in double figures with 17 ppg (he nails 40% of his shots from deep). Former MU recruit John Williamson chips in at nine points per game and a team-leading six rebounds.

Despite the productive play from Vaughn, Cronin's bunch is last in the league in turnover margin and near the bottom of Big East in assist to turnover ratio. Meanwhile, MU leads the Big East in steals and is in the top quartile in turnover margin. This points to an opportunity for MU's backcourt to get back on track defensively, though it's been some time since Marquette asserted itself in this manner.

In addition, the Bearcats are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league, but will that be a factor on Saturday? The Golden Eagles have been out-rebounded in each of the last seven contests, the longest stretch of the Crean era. Toughness on the glass, a hallmark of Crean-era teams, has been lacking on the baseline since the conference opener against Providence.

For MU though, it is all about the guards. Simply put, the core of MU's attack has under-performed in conference tilts. Only Wesley Matthews, who has scored in double figures in seven of eight conference games, has elevated his play in the last month. In conference play, Dominic James is averaging 11ppg down from 13ppg in non-conference action. James, hampered by a stubborn wrist injury, is shooting just 58% from the line and 40% from the floor in Big East play. To his credit, James protects the ball exceptionally well as his 3.2/1 assist to turnover ratio in Big East action proves, and he's been an underrated on-the-ball defender all season. Jerel McNeal's play remains a great mystery, perhaps highlighted by his 33 minute, zero rebound effort at UConn. Offensively, McNeal is hitting just 36% of his shots in league play, including a frigid 18% from deep. Worse, McNeal has coughed the ball up 27 times in Big East play and appears to be out of synch offensively.

Tipoff is scheduled for 11am CST on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN Full Court.

It's time for the backcourt to emerge once again and for this team to sack up, embrace the Warriors Code and own the road.



You're the fighter you've got the fire
The spirit of a warrior, the champion's heart
You fight for your life because the fighter never quits
You make the most of the hand you're dealt
Because the quitter never wins
No!


Additional Previews

• GoMarquete preview
• Rosiak on McNeal - - time to spark MU again
• Dodds' preview
• Cincy Enquirer previews the game and the opportunity before UC