Jerel McNeal and Tyshawn Taylor updates

For the second time in as many years, one of Marquette's best is dipping his toes in the NBA waters. Jerel McNeal put himself through a thorough self-evaluation before declaring, and he discussed that with Todd Rosiak in a blog posted over the weekend.

Still, despite an extraordinary finish to a strong junior season there's not much love for Jerel just yet:

• Andy Katz barely entertains the notion that McNeal will stay in the draft in his rundown on the impact of early entrants.
• ESPN.com's draft board lists McNeal at #73 overall -- out of 100 eligible draft entrants.
• NBADraft.net does not list McNeal in its mock two-round draft.
• Draftexpress.com lists McNeal as the 12th best shooting guard in the draft.

TYSHAWN TAYLOR TO KANSAS
Taylor visited Kansas last week, and came away impressed (um, no kidding). Today Adam Zagoria reports that Taylor committed to KU. No surprise.

McNeal declares for NBA draft, will not hire agent

To nobody's surprise, Jerel McNeal declared for the NBA draft on Friday but will not hire an agent.

GoMarquette official release

Rosiak's blog

Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?

(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)

Numbers for all five games of the post-season

When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.

What happened to the turnovers?

As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.

The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.

Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.

But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong

Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud

Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.

Taking his game to the next level...

This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.

Things to Consider Down the Stretch

Want a reason to believe that this Marquette team could be different than the last two years? According to Pomeroy, Marquette has the #15 offense and the #11 defense in the country. This is in spite of our team troubles in the early part of conference play. Here's a quick view at the 2007 and 2006 Pomeroy statistics.


Interestingly enough, our performance in the past two NCAA tournament games has been an exaggerated microcosm of the team's rankings. The 2006 MU defense was the weak point, and that team was torched by Alabama. The 2007 weak area was the offense, and... well, let's just not discuss the woeful ineptitude of the MSU game. Frankly, looking at the Pomeroy Rankings, it's not really a surprise that Marquette ended up seeded where they were in the tournament.

This team is better than the last two years on both ends of the court, and they are playing better overall as well. It's okay to believe that this team is good.

On the other hand...

Marquette is also only 3-6 against Top 50 RPI teams this year. As Hilltopper says, despite all the stats it really only matters how well you do on the court against the top teams. Regardless of home/away, good teams need to beat other good teams. There are at least two more potential games for Marquette against Top 50 teams (Georgetown and Syracuse), so perhaps MU will get that record closer to 0.500. However, it's far more likely that we split, which would leave Marquette with a record of 4-7 against Top 50 RPI teams going into the Big EAST Tournament. A few wins in the tournament may also help MU beef up this portion of the record but we'll mostly likely end up sub-0.500 for the season.

Performing well in the NCAAs is about defeating the top teams, and so far this year, Marquette has not done well. It's also okay to be nervous about how well Marquette will do in the NCAA tournament. If 2008 ends up as also an exaggerated microcosm in the tournament, then one need only think of how poorly we looked against Louisville...

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Links

Rosiak's blog has had several nice entries the last few days. Lots of good links from Rosiak. The most recent entry includes coverage of how Jay Bilas lists Jerel McNeal as one of his six defensive candidates, as well as bracketology updates. Frankly, Cracked Sidewalks just doesn't see the same McNeal defensive brilliance. His Defensive Rebounding Percentage, his Block Rate, his Steal Rate, and his overall Defensive Rating are worse than last year.

The Journal-Sentinel has their Weekly Marquette Report (sorry, but I'm not calling it Golden Eagles). They look at who is Hot (Barro) and who is Not (Burke).

updated: Information regarding Top 50 teams based on brewcity's blog comments

CHN Rankings & Big East Media Day

Rankings are fun......especially when your team looks good. CHN ranked the top 30 players in the Big East and Dominic James is at the top of the heap. Jerel McNeal checks in at #10, making MU the only program with two of the league's top 10. Strangely, Wesley Matthews gets no respect -- he's listed in the 'next in line' category. I look forward to the recount in March.

Here are the CHN rankings of the Big East's best players. Talk about it here on MUScoop.

**Big East Media Day**
BTW, Big East Media day will begin this morning at 9am CDT in New York City, the greatest city in the world. Tom Crean and the Three Amigos will represent Marquette at the event today.

FWIW at last week's Marquette CIRCLES in New York event, Tom Crean indicated that for his preseason coaches' poll he pegged Louisville, Georgetown and Providence as the Big East's top three teams - -in that order. He cited overall experience as the primary reason for selecting these teams to lead the league. Crean did not indicate where he slotted MU.

Fans can check out the Big Easts' media day homepage for updates throughout today's event, including video content. That page includes a link to the official Big East preview of Marquette -- find that right here.

Luke Winn Q&A With Jerel McNeal

Wisconsin native Luke Winn of CNNSI catches up with Jerel McNeal......it is currently the lead story on CNNSI's college hoops homepage -- here is the link to the article itself.

Good to see Luke diving back into the MU program.

How valuable is Jerel McNeal?

Anybody up for some legit statistical analysis of Jerel McNeal's productivity and value to Marquette? The guys over at Villanova by the Numbers posted an exceptional evaluation of the talented Mr. McNeal earlier this week.

As any MU fan knows, McNeal is a box score stuffer extraordinaire - - which is generally good (steals, rebounds, points) and sometimes bad (turnovers, low shooting percentage, and propensity to take too many shots at the expense of more efficient teammates like Fitzgerald and Cubillan). Rather than the rote aggregation of numbers and a simple ranking, their analysis uses fairly standard metrics employed by Pomeroy and others. Their evaluation suggests that McNeal is a drag on offense and a boon on defense for the Golden Eagles. Turnovers and poor shot selection played roles in the offensive liability, but McNeal's sublime defense seems to makeup any shortcomings on offense. Still, the analysis indicates that if McNeal can improve his offensive efficiency, MU could see a spike in overall offensive production.

Their analysis is purely a statistical exercise however, and fails to account for McNeal's 'presence' on the court (the guys over at FireJoeMorgan just threw up in their mouths). By 'presence' I don't mean to imply that MU benefits just from McNeal showing up -- but his ability to break down a defense off the dribble does in fact allow MU to have a more dynamic, wide-open attack. While McNeal's absence plots out as a net gain in offensive efficiency for MU -- anybody who saw the Providence, St Johns, or Michigan State games knows that MU was crippled, unable to break down defenses or create easy shot opportunities as a result of defensive pressure. I'd argue that the modest spike in offensive efficiency in those final games had more to do with higher percentage shooters like Cubillan, Fitzgerald and Matthews taking more shots in McNeal's absence -- more than MU suddenly becoming a better offensive team. They were not a better offensive team ...... unless you are a fan of the Mike Deane weave, that is.

Beyond that, I'd posit (but don't have the numbers) that the offensive efficiency of the teams MU played without McNeal was higher than the Golden Eagles' season average (moreso than the small spike in offensive efficiency the Golden Eagles realized in his absence).

Read the Villanova Viewpoint analysis here.

McNeal: Top Stopper

Rivals.com's Bob McClellan has picked Jerel McNeal as college basketball's "Top Stopper".

If your team was protecting a one-point lead with time running down and you could pick any player in college basketball, who would you choose to guard the opposition's top scoring option?

Simply put Jerel McNeal is the best defender in college basketball, and he prides himself on locking up people. He knows better than anyone that it's his ticket to the next level.

I spoke to him a couple of weeks ago for another story, and here's how he described himself.

"I've got a good frame for playing defense," McNeal said. "I'm not tall, but I have long arms and quick feet. Everything else is mental things - anticipation, thinking about plays that the offense will make before they make them. It's a combination of physical ability and getting inside my opponent's head."

McNeal was 10th nationally in steals and was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year (notice he didn't share the award with anybody). He also thinks on his feet.

"If a guy makes a move and gets by me, it won't happen twice," McNeal said. "I pick things up quickly in a game. The next time he tries it he's gonna have a problem."

Kudos, Jerel!

McNeal, Matthews cut from Pan-Am roster

Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal were cut from the Pan-Am team over the weekend. Here's the updated roster. Also, Dominic James did not attend the tryouts -- learn why from Rosiak.

Jerel McNeal working through the summer

OK, a bit of legit basketball to report on.

Rivals speaks with Jerel McNeal, the heart and soul of the current MU vintage, about his workouts this off-season. Gotta love this fellas' moxie:

"I've got a good frame for playing defense," McNeal said. "I'm not tall but I have long arms and quick feet. Everything else is mental things - anticipation, thinking about plays that the offense will make before they make them. It's a combination of physical ability and getting inside my opponent's head."

Rosiak: MU working hard

Todd Rosiak has a great blog entry from yesterday's practice session.

Highlights:

• Lazar is the most improved player this summer
• Mo Acker is a stud
• Steve Novak is helping the team
• McNeal and Kobe
• Pan AM prep

Read it all here.

A handful of updates

Jeff Goodman from Fox Sports blogs on MU in his latest entry - - with info on Dominic James, Tom Crean and new Northeastern assistant coach Todd Townsend,

"He’ll be a head coach at a young age,” Marquette coach Tom Crean said. “He’s overcome a lot of adversity and has always been successful. He treats people the right way, has great work ethic and is very smart. It was a good move for him so he could be a full-time coach and go out recruiting.”

Here's the link to Goodman's blog.

Also of note, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews were invited to participate in the USA Basketball Men's Pan American Games Team Trials July 12-14 in Pennsylvania.

Marquette is just one of six schools to send a pair of players to the trials. 30 players were invited to try out for the team, which will be coached by Jay Wright. Congrats and good luck to Jerel and Wesley!

Jerel McNeal out for NCAA tournament

UPDATED

Rosiak has the scoop today on his blog. McNeal is done for 2006-2007.

Or not -- see, Todd Rosiak re-filed a second news brief on the JS site today......now he says that McNeal is out only for this weekend.

Ahem. Sounds fishy to me. Ya think MU made a few phone calls to the Journal-Sentinel? That's odd because I bet Rosiak checked with multiple sources before filing his initial news brief.

For my money, I'm guessing Rosiak's original scoop -- that McNeal is done for the year -- is the right call. It was confirmed later by ESPN. ESPNews then confirmed the story as well in their Breaking News segment.

The MUScoop guys are all over it.

Jerel McNeal Injury Update

Here's a post for the (literally) hundreds of you who have found Cracked Sidewalks while Googling on "Jerel McNeal injury" or similar.

What is Jerel McNeal's status? There is some Internet buzz out there which claims that Jerel McNeal is done for the year. If you keep looking, some even claim he had surgery on his injured thumb.

Want more? MU has its own crack staff of online physical therapists and physicians evaluating McNeal. Free medical advice via message boards, good for him!

There's no shortage of negativity on his prognosis. Heck, Tom Crean effectively said that McNeal was done for at least this week in the coverage we saw earlier today.

And there's plenty more to go 'round. Anonymous tips, 'people in the know', et al.

Bottom line? We think McNeal is done for the year, at least as an effective contributor for Marquette. Sure MU is doing its best to rehab McNeal in hopes that he'll recover from the right thumb injury quickly enough to play again -- but after missing practice for nearly two weeks, a return to good health in time to help this team is unlikely.

Maybe MU is sandbagging everybody on this - - don't forget that last season Wesley Matthews returned from a stress fracture earlier than anticipated. Of course, it took Wesley more than a few games to regain his early-season form once he returned -- so it's only logical that McNeal would endure a similar recovery, particularly since he injured his right (shooting) thumb -- a hand that was still splinted (at least) at the Big East tourney a few days ago.

Could there be a Willis Reed Moment for MU? Perhaps, but remember that Reed's 'moment' (all of 4 points in fifteen minutes) is only notable because Walt Frazier delivered one of the greatest playoff performances in NBA history -- 36 points, 19 assists and five steals in Game 7 of the 1970 NBA Finals.

Moral of the story? Somebody else better step up for MU. We hope we're wrong, we really do..........but we think he's done (at least as the player he was earlier this season).

Back in the New York Groove

UPDATED
Marquette takes center stage at the World's Most Famous Arena on Wednesday when they take on the St. John's Red Storm to cap the opening night of the 2007 Big East Tournament.

Tipoff is scheduled for roughly 8pm CST on ESPN. The Bracket Project currently lists MU as a solid six seed for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Adding a road win in the BET (yes, for RPI purposes this is a road game) could help MU ratchet up a notch.

Marquette (23-8, 10-6), fresh off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Panthers, is looking for its first conference tournament victory since the 2001-2002 season. Norm Roberts' Red Storm (16-14, 7-9) enter the tournament as the 11th seed after convincingly defeating Providence to end the regular season. Last year, the Johnnies failed to reach the Big East Tournament.

Both teams enter the game depleted by injury. Lamont Hamilton, SJU's leading scorer and rebounder, is out for the entire Big East Tournament after suffering a knee injury during the PC win. Marquette will likely hit the floor without the Big East's defensive player of the year, Jerel McNeal. While MU has not made an official announcement about McNeal's availability, head coach Tom Crean was not 'overly optimistic' about his sophomore guard's availability.

So, with each team missing vital cog who will step up? Maybe we'll see two freshmen emerge once again. With McNeal unable to suit up on Saturday night, freshman David Cubillan responded with a collegiate high 20 points, which included a host of key 3-pointers and a perfect night at the charity stripe. While Cubillan lacks McNeal's ability to attack the rim, he played to his strengths by controlling the tempo of the game and successfully managing MU's offense down the stretch.

For the Johnnies, perhaps 6'8" freshman Qa'rraan Calhoun will deliver once more. Calhoun will log more minutes for SJU after scoring 21 points off the bench on Saturday. He averaged six points and four rebounds during the regular season. The New York Daily News is reporting that Aaron Spears will start in Hamilton's place.

While McNeal's absence in a conference road game sets an ominous tone, the loss of Hamilton could hamstring the Johnnies even more. The Red Storm averaged a paltry 62 points per game this year, second-worst in the Big East. To make matters worse, SJU played to a rebound deficit for most of the season, and played to a negative turnover margin.

Anthony Mason Jr. figures to be SJU's first option on Wednesday. The 6'7" sophomore averaged 12ppg and 6 rpg this season. In MU's win over SJU last season, Mason delivered a double-double (14 pts, 11 boards). Junior guard Avery Patterson is the only other Johnnie averaging double figures (10 ppg).

Still, this is a conference road game for Marquette -- a nationally-televised, primetime road game. Let's get this one.

Time to FIRE UP MARQUETTE! I for one can't wait to cheer MU on in-person (finally).

MEDIA UPDATES

• The Associated Press previews the MU/SJU game.
• Rosiak's blog.
• Marquette University BET schedule.
• MUScoop's information header for the game.
• The AP previews the entire BET.
• NY Daily News previews the tournament and notes that a rematch with Pitt "could be the best game of the tournament" -- well, lets get the SJU game first.
• Rosiak's JS preview built around McNeal's honor.
• John Keegan of the Marquette Tribune on MU's return to NYC.
• Steve Yanda of the Marquette Trib on the loss of McNeal.
  

Hey, Ace.........get us back in the New York groove.

Jerel McNeal named Big East's top defender

Congrats to Jerel McNeal, the Big East's Defensive Player of the Year.

A well-deserved honor.

Jerel McNeal injury update

It appears that MU will mostly likely make their way to MSG tomorrow without Jerel McNeal in the lineup. McNeal inured his thumb in practice last week.

"It's too early to tell," Marquette coach Tom Crean said Monday morning. "I'm not overly optimistic."

Newsday on the Hamilton and McNeal injuries.

James, McNeal garner All-Big East honors

Dominic was a first-team all-Big East selection today. Jerel was a second-team selection. Based on their respective performances in conference play, I would have voted McNeal to the first team and DJ to the second. But still -- this is super for the MU program and for DJ and Jere.

Congrats, guys!

2006-07 All-BIG EAST First Team
*Jeff Green, Georgetown, Jr., 6-9, 235, Hyattsville, Md.
*Roy Hibbert, Georgetown, Jr., 7-2, 283, Adelphi, Md.
Dominic James, Marquette, So., 5-11, 175, Richmond, Ind.
Russell Carter, Notre Dame, Sr., 6-4, 220, Paulsboro, N.J.
Colin Falls, Notre Dame, Sr., 6-5, 200, Park Ridge, Ill.
*Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh, Sr., 7-0, 270, Emmaus, Pa.
*Herbert Hill, Providence, Sr. 6-10, 240, Kinston, N.C.
Lamont Hamilton, St. John's, Sr., 6-10, 255, Brooklyn, N.Y.
*Demetris Nichols, Syracuse, Sr., 6-8, 212, Boston, Mass.
Curtis Sumpter, Villanova, Sr., 6-7, 225, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Frank Young, West Virginia, Sr., 6-5, 215, Tallahassee, Fla.

(*) indicates a unanimous selection

2006-07 All-BIG EAST Second Team
Jeff Adrien, Connecticut, So., 6-7, 238, Brookline, Mass.
Wilson Chandler, DePaul, So. 6-8, 210, Benton Harbor, Mich.
Sammy Mejia, DePaul, Sr., 6-6, 195, Bronx, N.Y.
David Padgett, Louisville, Jr., 6-11, 250, Reno, Nev.
Terrence Williams, Louisville, So., 6-6, 220, Seattle, Wash.
Jerel McNeal, Marquette, So., 6-3, 185, Chicago, Ill.
Levance Fields, Pittsburgh, So., 5-10, 190, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Brian Laing, Seton Hall, Jr., 6-5, 215, Bronx, N.Y.
Kentrell Gransberry, USF, Jr., 6-9, 270, Baton Rouge, La.
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova, Fr., 6-2, 195, Herndon, Va.

Here is the Big East press release.

Here is the MU press release.

John Keegan of the MU Tribune.

James was a second-team all Big East selection in 2005-2006. Inexplicably, Wesley Matthews was not selected as a second teamer -- nor was he included in the Big East honor roll. Boo.

Congrats to Jerel McNeal

Tom Luicci of the Newark Star-Ledger voted McNeal to his 10-player first-team all Big East team. Well deserved!

I was disappointed to see that Luicci played the homer card and voted for Marquis Webb as the Big East's Defensive Player of the Year.

Bad call.

McNeal, with more steals (2.6 to 0.9) and rebounds (4.6 to 2.6) than Webb, was a much stronger candidate for that honor. ...add in McNeal's miraculous save at USF if you're not convinced he's a more viable choice (not to mention that McNeal made his all conference ballot and Webb did not)

Other categories of note:

POY - Jeff Green
FOY - Scottie Reynolds
COY - Mike Brey

Those three -- all solid choices.

Win it for Wade

With Dywane Wade back on campus to have his jersey retired, the Marquette Golden Eagles (19-4, 6-2) return from a six day layoff on Saturday afternoon when they host the Providence Friars at the Bradley Center. MU is the talk of the Big East after ripping off six straight victories following a disappointing 0-2 start in conference play. Tom Crean's crew made great strides during the first half of conference play despite playing five of their first eight Big East games on the road.

The Friars enter Saturday's game at 14-6 overall and 4-3 in the Big East. Providence defeated MU 74-59 last month. Tim Welsh's young Friars have not played since defeating UConn at the Hartford Civic Center last Saturday to earn their first road win in conference play.

Providence is led by the efficient Herbert Hill, who delivers 17 points and 8 boards per game. Hill has been even better in conference games where he leads the league in both scoring and rebounding. The senior post player shoots a blistering 67% from the floor and played one of his best games of the season against MU when he hung 23 and 9 on the Golden Eagles. Sophomore point guard Sharaud Curry returned from suspension several weeks ago, and paid immediate dividends for the Friars. At 16ppg, the talented sophomore keys the Friars' attack. Still, the toughest matchup on the floor for the Golden Eagles will be sophomore Geoff McDermott. The 6'7" power forward is the Big East's most versatile player, pouring in 12ppg to go along with 10 boards and a team-high 5.4 assists per outing. When your power forward leads a team in assists, you can bet that creates huge matchup concerns for the opposition. McDermott dominated Marquette last month, just missing a triple double (11 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds). McDermott had more assists than the entire MU team -- yuck.

While Curry missed the Big East opener, MU was without Jerel McNeal and although Wesley Matthews played, he had not practiced much leading into the contest. During MU's six-game tear, McNeal has been the team's most vital performer, setting the tone both offensively and defensively as the Golden Eagles turned the season around. Much like last season, McNeal's performance in conference games is superior to his performance on the out-of-conference slate. With McNeal healthy, MU has played stifling defense during the six-game run (sans the USF outing) -- something they failed to do at The Dunk to open conference play.

Marquette will retire Dwyane Wade's jersey #3 in a ceremony on Saturday. Here's a nice photo essay on DWade from Marquette Hoops.

The AP filed this one.

Here's a game preview from Eric Silver on scout.com.

Here's the MUScoop information header for Saturday's game.