Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?

(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)

Numbers for all five games of the post-season

When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.

What happened to the turnovers?

As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.

The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.

Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.

But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong

Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud

Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.

Taking his game to the next level...

This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.

ARRRRRRRRRRGH..........

gut-wrenching loss on a remarkable shot in overtime......heck of a game. I am sick to my stomach.

Know your opponent: Stanford

Kudos to Seth for this comment in the post below (and one before that) about his beloved Stanford Cardinal. So now -- somewhat unplanned -- here is "Know your opponent - Stanford":

**************
Stanford fan here and newcomer to your very impressive blog. I've always had a soft spot for Marquette and Al McGuire was always one of my favorite coaches and commentators: will always remember him goading Arthur Lee into dancing after Stanford advanced to the Final Four ten years ago this month.

As for the two Stanford losses you write about: I think you can discard the loss at Oregon, as it was earlier in the year before Stanford really gelled. When Stanford and Oregon played again in Palo Alto later, Stanford crushed the Ducks.

The loss at USC does, however, provide a template you can look to try to emulate. Sure, Stanford was flat after having a share of the Pac-10 title taken away by the refs at UCLA two nights before, but they were just not focused on the boards enough. Also, USC's bigs are a bit undersized but very athletic and talented, plus their wings and guards are big, strong, and athletic enough to crash the offensive glass. Hayward and Matthews may fit the mold there, which is a big concern for us. The Lopez twins go for the spectacular block too much sometimes; they have to stay home and be content with defending/altering the shot and collecting the rebound.

I'm pretty concerned with the matchup against Lazar Hayward. He looked great against Kentucky. Strong, athletic, and a credible outside threat. Kind of sounds like Mailk Hairston of Oregon. Then again, Robin Lopez shut Hairston down pretty well. (Robin is outstanding at defending bigs that try to score outside the paint: Ryan Anderson of Cal had his way against pretty much everyone this year, but Robin convincingly shut him down twice.)

Our guards are not much offensively unless Goods gets hot, but I like them collectively on defense. Even the weak link Mitch Johnson has improved quite a bit. Darren Collison effectively used screens to hit 12-foot jumpers and had the running teardrop layup in his arsenal to clear the long reach of the Lopez twins. Goods totally shut down talented two guards like Derrick Low and Russell Westbrook in Pac-10 tournament; he will need to bring his "A" game defensively today, as well.

Regarding the "Stanford by the numbers" post -- Stanford has done a good job tightening up its offense in the last part of the year and limiting their turnovers, even against UCLA's monster backcourt.

If you're talking about the last twelve games: Stanford did have a rough patch, losing at Arizona State and barely winning at Arizona. Washington and Goods were dinged up and the defense took a hit because of that, but Washington is looking better than ever now. However, I'd point to their performance in the Pac-10 tournament -- beating Arizona and Washington State before taking UCLA down to the final shot -- as a more accurate indicator of how well they're playing now.

I think we're better than Wisconsin. Don't know that we're as good as Louisville, but we would give them a much better game this year.

Looking forward to an exciting game today!

Thanks Seth!!

The Sweet 16 awaits

UPDATED
Marquette aims to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003 when the Golden Eagles (25-9) take on the Stanford Cardinal (27-7) this afternoon in Anaheim.

After an impressive win against Kentucky, the task grows taller for Marquette this afternoon. The Cardinal are led by the seven-foot twins, Brook and Robin Lopez. Brook Lopez, a sure-fire NBA lottery pick, leads the team with 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. Robin Lopez contributes 10 points, 5 boards and 2.5 blocks per game.

With the Lopez twins anchoring the lane, Stanford is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and they've dominated the backboards all season long, especially on the offensive glass. Per Rosiak, Crean likens the matchup to facing Thabeet and Hibbert in the same lineup - - which might be true if the Stanford pair wasn't better.

So, the antidote to ridiculous height and strength is simple, right? Run, shoot well and crash the boards. Perhaps Ousmane Barro, who will set the Marquette career record for games played today (127) will deliver a magical performance. Or maybe Lazar Hayward has more posterization remaining in his repertoire (read more below).

Seriously though, USC topped the Cardinal 77-64 late in the year despite the acute height disadvantage. USC dominated the backboards, taking home and advantage on both sides of the glass to win the game. The Cardinal also fell at Oregon, a smaller, perimeter oriented team. The Ducks won despite being manhandled on the glass and losing the turnover battle because they converted at the charity stripe and limited the Cardinal to just 16% shooting from beyond the arc. Of course, the Cardinal hitting on just 52% of their free throws helped too.

In this battle of opposites, Stanford appears to have the upper hand but perhaps the Golden Eagles have something on their side, karma. After shedding the weight of unrealized expectations on Thursday, Marquette soars into Saturday's tilt with nothing to lose. For the second week in a row, this group broke through to new heights -- first by advancing to the Big East tournament semifinals, and now by winning an NCAA opening round game. Factor in MU's tough schedule (the Golden Eagles played a whopping 12 games against the RPI top 30), the Big East's 7-1 start in NCAA play, and that marvelous backcourt depth ........ hey, you never know.

In the end, here is what we do know:

• Stanford is ginormous. Marquette is not.
• Marquette is fast and quick. Stanford is not.

Opposites.

Still need more? Henry Sugar has it covered with this boffo analysis of the Cardinal -- and this confidence-related epiphany on MUScoop.

Tip-off is scheduled for 5:45pm CST on CBS. Ring Out Ahoya!

Once again, Cracked Sidewalks will be there to cover the game in-person.

Media Updates

• The San Franscisco Chronicle previews the game (thanks to MLB for the tip)
• SF Chronicle on the Cardinal's concern with Dominic James.
• Chicago Tribune previews the game - hey, with no Flatlander programs in the tourney, they might as well adopt the Warriors.
  
• Rosiak on the off-day in Anaheim.
• Lilliputians take on Gigantaur U -- nice preview by USAToday.
• LATimes: Marquette tries to measure up against Stanford.
• SJMerc says the Cardinal is more athletic than in years past.
• Josh Peter from Yahoo! says MU is tough enough.
• LATimes with the Harbaugh angle.
• AP preview.
• Rosiak on the Stanford 7-footers.
• Oakland Tribune on the game.
• Scout.com previews the game.
  

Getting to Know Stanford - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Stanford. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Stanford has an overall Pomeroy Rating of #10. (Marquette is still at #12) Like Kentucky, Stanford prefers a slower pace to the game at 65 possessions / game, which is #242 in the country.

Stanford's Offensive Efficiency (115.8 - Rank of #25) gets better because of:

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - average of 50.1% (national rank of 155)
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - average of 39.8% (national rank of 7)
  

Like every team, the Cardinal's offense looks to how well they do at field goal percentage. In this area, they are average. However, as one might expect for a team with two seven-footers, they do an outstanding job at offensive rebounding. Digging into Stanford's offensive numbers further, they are #6 in the country at not getting blocked and they shoot one of the lowest amount of threes in the country (#316).

Stanford's Defensive Efficiency (86.2 - Rank of #6) gets better because of:

• Limiting Turnovers - average TO Rate of 18.9% (rank of 54)
• Forcing Turnovers - average TO Rate for opponents of 17.8 (rank of 318)

I find it interesting that how often they turn the ball over impacts their defensive efficiency. Obviously, it will be key for Marquette to force a lot of turnovers. Also, their Defensive Efficiency gets worse when:

• Opponents get a good eFG% - average rate of 43.8% (#8 in the country)
• Opponents do well at OR% - average rate of 28.4% (#17 in the country)
  

Stanford is really good defensively, and they don't have any areas that Marquette usually exploits. Offensive Rebounding has been huge for Marquette in the post-season, and tomorrow's game will provide a huge test. Did we also mention that they're #6 in the country at preventing 2-point baskets and #35 in the country at blocking shots? These are just like the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

How well have the Cardinal been playing lately?


Here is some good news. Over their last twelve games, Stanford's Offense and their Defense have been getting worse. In fact, until their rout of Cornell, Stanford was at a point where they were not playing winning basketball. Their ORtg (106.8) and DRtg (99.2) over the last five games are not nearly as impressive as their season numbers. Based on how well they have been playing and how well we have been playing over the last five games (using the Bill James log5 method), the numbers give us a 42% chance of winning the game. Of course, numbers don't play on the basketball court...

Summary
Stanford has better offensive and defensive numbers than Marquette, and they have strengths in areas that have caused us a lot of problems. This is one tough matchup. However, Stanford is impacted on both ends by the Turnover battle, which is an area Marquette will need to win. Plus, the Cardinal have not been playing as well lately, so there are some opportunities for Marquette to exploit.

Finally, remember the lesson from another good team. That team is #1 at defense according to Pomeroy. They don't turn the ball over much, they usually win offensive rebounding, they really limit two point baskets, and they get to the free throw line a lot. They also have a lot of size inside. Marquette managed to do just fine in pulling out a win at Wisconsin thanks to crashing the offensive boards and forcing a lot of turnovers.

Al Goes Out In Style....must read material

Courtesy of a faithful Cracked Sidewalks reader, here is the actual Sports Illustrated cover story recounting Marquette's 1977 National Championship. If that link is slow, here's the landing page.

Good reading and thanks!!

Kentucky Media Update and Numbers Recap

UPDATED
Great posts already from Hilltopper and MUWarrior92, and if you haven't checked it out, we highly encourage you to look at "On Golden Pond" and "Time to Exhale". There are a ton of outstanding video clips and stories.

• This Chicago Tribune article recaps the game.
• ESPN.com has the AP recap, and they also have Instant Analysis. There's also an article by Gene Wojciechowski that focuses on the Cats, but has some complementary info about Marquette's Defense.
• Rosiak's feature article talks about balance and relief, where the jsonline blog has a ton of entries (lots of good stuff).
• Here is a transcript of the postgame press conference, if you just can't get enough.
• CBSSports.com has a good article about Marquette's experience under pressure.
• From the Kentucky side, Matt Jones' KentuckySportsRadio.com has lots of coverage from their perspective.
• Yahoo Sports says we're no longer first round flops. Amen
  

In addition, Cracked Sidewalks wanted to commend the Kentucky fans for being good sports, even in defeat. The back and forth interaction, including cross-posting, and discussion on both sides was of a quality level. Our respect for Kentucky basketball has been increased this week.

Numbers Recap
Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Despite the Kentucky Preview focusing on their defensive abilities, this was an offensive game that Marquette managed to win. We came out ahead in three of the four factors, especially on Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%). This was a key area for Marquette in the non-conference portion of our schedule, especially against UW@Madison, and the team has been on a roll at Offensive Rebounding in the last four games. Stanford will provide a real test (more on that later).

Individual Player Review



No surprise that the top four performers in this game were the top four players on our team. It was yet another good game by McNeal. James was just behind McNeal, and thanks to shooting 8/10 from the free throw line, ended up positive net points.

We're going to have more information here at Cracked Sidewalks as we begin looking towards Stanford, so keep checking back regularly.

On Golden Pond....a look back at Thursday

What a relief. I'm thrilled with the win but more relieved then anything. Relieved for the staff, relieved for the fans but most of all the players. The last two NCAA appearances were tough on MU. Significant injuries and youth played a big role and today they had to take on one of the giant programs of all-time. It was weird seeing Kentucky out there as the underdog but in a sense I was glad MU played someone with that kind of pedigree. Not that there was a chance MU would come into this game overconfident, but anything extra to pump them up was a good thing in my mind. As it turns out, not a bad day at all....let's take a look back at the sites and sounds of today.

The Pep Rally - 9:15am DoubleTree Hotel Anaheim, California

Pulled into the hotel and the cheerleaders, band and PRN's favorite mascot were outside the lobby in full throat. Managed to get inside and spotted a few friendly faces, including soon to be superstar sports agent Bill Robers (MU alum) and his lovely wife. Gerry Boyle, Father Wild, Greg Kliehbon (sp?) were there along with many faces from other trips over the years. Good turnout for a 2000 mile trip with a few So. Cal alumni as well.

Found Bill Cords in the crowd and spoke with him for about 10 minutes. He looks terrific. Well rested, healthy...what retirement should be. But you could tell that even though he's not the AD any longer, he was definitely into this event and the game. You can't just drop your life's work because you aren't punching a time card any longer. Always good to talk to him. He helped rebuild a winner when it looked hopeless at times.

About 9:30am the players started coming down through the lobby and outside to the bus. I captured a few videos showing them on their way to the most important game of the season.






After they loaded the bus, they were given a police escort from Anaheim's finest over to the Honda Center. Meanwhile the fans retreated back into the hotel for a pep talk from Jack Harbaugh.



The Pep Talk

You could tell this guy was a lifelong coach. I've heard him give a few of these before, but today's was very good. My video is terrible and I'm hoping someone else has some better clips. He started off by introducing his son, former NFL QB and current Stanford head football coach, Jim Harbaugh to the audience.



Jack then went into what today means. What it means especially for the seniors. For Barro, for Fitzgerald, for Blackledge. I'll post the video if I get it because I can't do it justice. It just struck a chord for me personally. He said the last four years we have been Barro's family and his teammates have been his brothers. Today could be his last game every with this family and these brothers. He would bring it all to the game, every last bit of energy. The same with Fitz and Lawrence. It was well stated. Maximum effort.

He then implored us all to make the Honda Center our home, to scream and yell and make our guys feel like it was our building. He divided the room into two and had a mini-competition between the two sides in terms of loudness. The fans were ready at this point...bring on the game.


Bumping into Joanie...cute story

So we leave the conference room and my wife tells me that the woman she saw yesterday at the Block of Orange (a large So Cal mall)shopping was in the room where the pep talk just happened. I asked her to describe which one. She said the gal with brown hair and the little boy. I started to laugh....you mean "THAT ONE"?

She replied, "yes".

Well, here's the background. Yesterday my wife tells me when I get home from work that she bumped into a Marquette fan at the mall while she was shopping with a girlfriend. My wife made a comment to her that it was great to see a MU fan and that her husband (me) went to MU, etc, etc. Well, my wife asked her yesterday if she was going to the game today and if she was all squared away with tickets. LOL. Joanie said she was all taken care of.

So that leads us back to today. I tell my wife, well honey, that's Joanie Crean...the wife of our head coach and I think not only is she going to the game today, her ticket situation is probably all squared away too.

Just then Joanie comes out, sees my wife and I think they had the 24 hour mall flashback for one second as they recognized each other. She was super nice, spoke to us for a few minutes and brought Reilly over. Very nice family. Very generous with her time.

Off to the Honda Center

So we got into my truck and gave a lift to Tim Vetscher and three other MU supporters. Vetscher worked as a student for me in 1997 selling season tickets to MU faithful. Now he's a television reporter in Phoenix....always good to see Tim. He participates on MU scoop from time to time.

We arrived at the Honda Center at 10:25am just before the doors opened.




My wife and I had never attended a Marquette game together in 10 years...at least not sitting together. When I worked at MU during the games, she was usually on the other side of the arena with our 3 month old son in the baby bjorn...so today was going to test our marriage.

We waited the hour for the game to tip off, I was nervous and she was the rock that she always is.

Attendance was quite sparse from what I'm used to at the Bradley Center and hosting those first two rounds. Milwaukee really does a super job of supporting the NCAA tournament.

At 11:25 they did the national anthem by the the MU band...well done. That was followed by player introductions.





I won't get into the game itself, most others have already done that. I did capture (poorly) a few final videos of the last seconds of the game including my comment "FINALLY" that is caught on video....it's been awhile and it's good to finally get another NCAA tournament win. The MU fans were ecstatic and giving Joe Crawford props for a tremendous game.




Now we've got a day off to figure out how to handle two 7 footers who have pushed UCLA to the brink twice in the last 14 days. It's good to be in the NCAAs again...and winning.

Let's Dance: Marquette takes on Kentucky in tourney opener

UPDATED
When Marquette and Kentucky renew acquaintances on Thursday in Anaheim, the Golden Eagles will look to earn their first NCAA tournament win since the magical run to the 2003 Final Four - - a run that included a memorable win over the then top-seeded Wildcats.

Five years later, the roles are reversed and the pressure is squarely on the Golden Eagles. Despite making its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, the Marquette fanbase is desperate for a win in March, and as a healthy, higher-seeded team, expectations are understandably high in Warrior Nation.

Against a thin Kentucky squad that goes only six or seven deep, look for the Golden Eagles to commit to a faster pace -- and to drive and dish more than usual. As we saw last week in New York, MU will push the ball off of both makes and misses -- secondary fast break baskets are a vital part of the arsenal -- to create a decidedly up-tempo game that minimizes halfcourt sets.

Of course, we also saw the Ghost of Offensive Despair in the Big East Tournament when MU endured a 13 minute stretch without a made field goal against Pitt .......a bitter reminder of MU's abominable offensive effort against Michigan State in last season's NCAA tournament.

Absent effective shooters, Marquette has struggled against teams that lock down the paint -- much like the Wildcats have done this season. Since January when facing teams that defend the interior exceptionally well -- Louisville, UConn and Georgetown -- Marquette went a combined 0-5 and shot roughly 31% in those games. Realize that UK has a similar defensive profile, but the Wildcats turn the ball over more than just about anybody you'd expect to see in the NCAA tournament. Therein lies a key to the game.

We've already run detailed numbers previews for Kentucky and Marquette -- and now it is finally time for our favorite time of year, Basketball Christmas season. Moreover, Hilltopper says MU won't lose on his birthday. Ah, it really is the most wonderful time of the year (if MU wins on Thursday). Anyway, here is the boiled down version for the game. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Marquette v. Kentucky

• 80% - Pomeroy predicts an 80% chance of Marquette victory
• 291 - Kentucky's rank at protecting the ball
  
• Kentucky turns the ball over on almost one out of every four possessions
• Marquette is #48 in the country at forcing turnovers
• 25 - Kentucky's rank at getting to the Free Throw line
• They get to the line 30% of the time that they take a shot
• Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from shooting free throws
• 63.9 - Average number of possessions for Kentucky
• This is one of the slowest paces in the country (#281)
• Tempo will play a huge role in the game
  
• 6 - The rank of Marquette's defense according to Pomeroy
• This is anchored by our tough perimeter defense at getting steals (#5 in the nation) and preventing three-pointers (#3 in the nation)
• Be confident that we have an elite defense

Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm CDT on CBS.

MEDIA UPDATES

• Don't forget to join the Cracked Sidewalks/MUScoop pick'em contest -- just for fun.
• The Journal-Sentinel has a cool widget that breaks down the individual matchups for the game here.
• Rosiak blogged overnight -- good info on UK and more.
• Kentucky Sports Radio (ESPN Radio in Louisville's blog) previews the game. Nice work Matt!
• Yahoo! on the Blue Collar Cats.
  
• Nick Williams was named Alabama 6A Player of the Year (Tip: John Pudner) by the Alabama Sports Writers Association. Congratulations, Nick, and we're excited to have you join the team next year. By the way, don't forget to check out Nick Williams' wiki page.
• The Omaha World-Herald has a great story about the fight between Bernard Toone and Al McGuire in 1977 (Tip: Ben), which helped kick-start MU's run to the National Championship. Great story, although I think that such events would receive decidedly less favorable coverage in 2008.
• The SportsLifer wonders if there is a Cinderella to be had this year (he figures MU was one in 2003).
• Rosiak says MU wants to avoid the slow starts that have plagued them in the NCAAs.
  
• Lunardi picks MU to win by 15 in the opening round.
• CBS Sportsline gives MU the nod too over UK as well.
• Seth Davis -- well, he picks MU to fall short against the Wildcats. However, Wisconsin native Luke Winn sees MU flying into the Sweet 16. Nice.
• Chicago Tribune on UK - - happy to be back in the tourney.
• Buzz Williams talks up his old boss, Billy Gillispie.
• The Louisville Courier-Journal talks about the impact of the 2003 MU win over UK on the recruiting trail.

This post is a joint contribution by Henry Sugar and NYWarrior

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Media Updates for Wednesday

UPDATED
Here's what folks all around the country are saying about the upcoming Marquette-Kentucky matchup:

• IWB's SportsBubbler site has video of the TC press conference from yesterday.
  
• The latest installment of the BIG EAST CAST is up and ready for your ears.
  
• In case you didn't stay up late, here is Todd Rosiak's chat transcript from last night.
• Rosiak looks into how and when the Wildcats hit their stride this season after a rough start.
• Rosiak's weekly Golden Eagles capsule.
  
• The Chicago Tribune, Marquette's hometown paper in March, says Dominic James is ready to flip the switch ..... to 'ON' we hope.
• The ChiTrib again talks about the matchup on Thursday --one that Crean thinks he's seen before - "They are very similar to Pittsburgh," Crean said. "They have outstanding guard play [and] forwards who can make plays."
• The Louisville Courier-Journal notes that Thursday's game is all about the guards. Gillispie noted MU's overall speed as a concern,
  

  "I think it's a very, very scary matchup for anyone that plays them because they have a really good team, and they're really, really fast at every single position, I believe," Gillispie said. "The most important thing is, they're extremely well-coached, and they play extremely hard every single time they play."

• The AP takes a UK perspective on the Wildcats' "scary" matchup on Thursday.
• The smarter reporter at the Appleton Post-Crescent takes MU as the Dairyland State's most likely to advance in their clever 'point-counterpoint. feature.
• Kentucky.com educates their readers on all things Marquette.
  
• John Clay looks at how the Cats have dealt with the different styles of play from opponents this season.
• BTW, here's a fun thread at the UK Rivals site -- 'what was your first memory of Marquette basketball"
• Basketball Prospectus breaks down the South and West Regions. Marquette is given an 80% chance of winning their first game and a 1% chance of winning the National Championship. Fun breakdown of all the teams to read, and some nice coverage of MU. "So you're telling me there's a chance..."
• The Sports Gal (espn.com) predicts Marquette to lose to Memphis in the Elite Eight. This comes after our defeat of Kentucky and Cornell. Wait! what? Not much respect for Stanford from the Sports Gal...
  

Don't forget to read our entry on 'Know Your Opponent', a special Q/A from a UK fan right here.

Much more to come today and tomorrow as gametime approaches.

Tuesday Media Updates

There's loads of interest in the MU/UK matchup -- just what you'd expect.

• First off, MU is a popular choice to get bounced in Round One this week. Paul Zeise at the Pittsburgh News-Gazette is one of the Cassandras, even though he insists MU will lose because it relies too much on the three-point shot. This is the kind of over-simplification you'd expect from somebody who doesn't cover the team, and wrongly assumes that since MU relies on guards it must rely on the trey. Zeise might be curious to know that MU shoots the three-ball just about as well as its next opponent - 35% to 36%.
  
• Not to be outdone, the Cincinnati Enquirer picks a Kentucky upset in the opener. Jonathan Smith of the Kentucky Kernel doesn't pick a UK win but he notes that the 'Cats have a 'favorable' matchup. Digger and Dickie V -- who also picked UK -- must be thrilled.
• Rosiak jumps back in the saddle with a feature on Jerel McNeal's return to the NCAA tourney this year.
  
• Shannon Ryan of the Chicago Tribune offers a recipe for an MU win: a) don't snooze (honest), b) defend, defend, defend and c) be board bullies.
• Chris Jenkins of the AP is back with another feature, this one on Lazar Hayward, who, according to Dominic James, is the key to a run in March.
• Kentucky Sports Radio is getting amped up -- 60 hours until tournament time, the best time of the year for hoops junkies.
  

TYSHAWN TAYLOR UPDATE
This is OT from the NCAA tournament -- but congratulations to Tyshawn Taylor and the St. Anthony's Friars who finished the season 32-0 with a 62-39 win over Science Park. With the win, the Star-Ledger claims this group is the the second-best group Hurley has ever coached. Considering Bob Hurley has won more than two dozen state titles, that's quite a statement. Wow. Zagoria covers the champs here.

Congrats, Tyshawn!!

Getting to Know Kentucky - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Kentucky. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

We're going to change up the format a bit because it's the NCAA Tournament -- note that earlier we did a sweep around the Internet to catch all of the day's best media updates.

Let's focus on UK right now:

Overall Pomeroy Rating of 61. That's one of the lowest for any at-large team in the NCAA tournament.
Adjusted tempo of 63.9 possessions / game (#281 in the country).

Kentucky's Offensive Efficiency (National rank of 95) Depends on:

• effective Field Goal % - Average of 52.6% (national rank of 62)
• Offensive Rebounding % - Average of 32.2 (national rank of 203)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky does well at eFG%, but how well they do offensively also depends on their ability to offensive rebound and prevent their opponents from getting to the line. Both areas are relatively weak for Kentucky.

Although it's not correlated with their offensive efficiency, Kentucky is also one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. They shoot a free throw 30.3% of the time that they take a field goal attempt (#25 in the country). Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from getting to the free throw line.

Kentucky's Defensive Efficiency (national rank of 39) Depends on:

• Opponents' eFG% - Average of 44.9% (national rank of 21)
• Forcing Opponents Turnovers - Average of 19.5% (national rank of 252)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky's eFG% defense is actually very strong (more on this in a bit). However, just like offensive efficiency, their defensive strength comes from a weak area of forcing turnovers. Note that their ability to prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line affects both their offense and their defense. Marquette must get to the free throw line!

The Wildcat's eFG% defense is anchored by an exceptionally strong ability to limit 2-point field goals (#17 in the country) and to block shots (#33 in the country). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is similar to the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Combined with the free throw rate and yes, those are warning bells going off. The areas where Kentucky is strong are areas that Marquette has struggled this year. The key difference between Kentucky and the previously mentioned teams is that Kentucky also has a lot more exploitable weaknesses.

• Kentucky turns the ball over on more than 23% of all possessions (#291 in the country). That is sweet, sweet music for Marquette.
• Kentucky is mediocre at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds (#141 in the country). Although MU's OR% has been up and down this year, we are still #27 in the country, and our performance was very strong in the BET.
• As previously mentioned, Kentucky does a poor job of limiting opponents from getting to the free throw line.
• They also do a poor job of forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Basically, the game will come down to how well Marquette forces turnovers/gets offensive rebounds vs how well Kentucky does at forcing a half-court game and preventing easy 2-point baskets.

How has Kentucky been Trending?

Here's a view of how Kentucky has been trending since the start of conference play. Conventional wisdom is that Kentucky has been playing well lately based on a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, their offense and defense run in parallel paths. In other words, when the offense gets better, the defense gets worse (and vice versa).

For a long stretch (Vanderbilt -> Tennessee #2), their defense was worse than their offense. Teams don't win much when that happens, but yet Kentucky kept winning. Lately, their offense has been improving, but their defense has also been getting worse, although the team is still playing winning basketball. I would say that the conventional wisdom on Kentucky playing well is focusing more on their offensive improvements and less on defensive shortcomings.

Keep coming back regularly to Cracked Sidewalks, where we'll have lots more analysis and media updates.

NCAA 2008 media updates

Here's hoping the Cracked Sidewalks readership has a subdued, manageable work week -- after all, there's an NCAA tournament to prepare for.

Here are this morning's key media updates -- pls note that MU beat reporter Todd Rosiak will host a chat at 8pm CST on Tuesday live from Anaheim.

• Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm CDT on Thursday afternoon.
• Rosiak has tidbits from Selection Sunday, including details on Buzz Williams' past experience as an assistant with UK head coach Billy Gillispie.
• The Sporting News has a preview capsule for this opening round matchup. TSN figures this game is all about the guards, "The fun part will be watching four seasoned, upperclass guards go at it. Bradley and McNeal are two of the best in the nation. In what promises to be a defensive taffy pull out top, it'll almost surely come down to whether James or Crawford or someone unusual goes on a binge."
• The AP looks at UK earning a bid in Gillispie's first season at the helm in Lexington - on the heels of 11 wins in their last 13 games.
• In a dueling AP entry, Chris Jenkins looks at MU's reaction to the bid -- including relief at being healthy in March.
• Kentucky.com notes that UK fans 'drool' for a shot at revenge with MU. Drool, that sounds about right. HAHAHAHAHAHA
• The News-Enterprise looks at the matchup, where UK is looking forward to a 'fresh start' in the post season.
• Columnist John Clay calls KU's return to the NCAA tourney 'Hollywood Material'...as if the previous 16 consecutive appearances -- which included a handful of national titles -weren't noteworthy.
• Clay also has a blog to check out.
  
• Rosiak on MU v UK ..... with roles reversed from the 2003 scenario -- and now it is time for the program to take the next step. Amen to that.
• The Chicago Tribune's capsules of the South Region
• The Chicago Tribune's preview of the South Region. Marquette is both struggling and a potential Cinderella.
• ESPN (video link) breaks down the South Region.
• Here's an official bracket from the NCAA
• Over at MUScoop, poster MUDish has a great breakdown of UK and MU
  

In case you are interested, here's the complete line-up of games in Anaheim on Thursday, all times PDT:

No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Kentucky - 11:30 a.m
No. 3 Stanford vs. No. 14 Cornell - 25 minutes following
No. 8 Brigham Young vs. No. 9 Texas A&M - 4:25 p.m.
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 16 Mississippi Valley State - 25 minutes following

Much more to come all week long..........

Marquette v Kentucky in round one of the 2008 NCAA tournament

UPDATED
Marquette (24-9) slides in as a #6 seed in the South Regional to face the #11 seed Kentucky Wildcats (18-12) on Thursday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The winner gets #3 seed Stanford. 2008 marks the third consecutive NCAA appearance for Marquette, something it had not done in 28 years -- as we point out in this jog down memory lane.

The UK game looks to be a good matchup for Marquette. Kentucky turns the ball over more than just about any team in the nation, the Wildcats struggle on the offensive glass, and they will be without their best player - freshman big man Patrick Patterson (who averaged 16 points and nearly 8 boards before his season-ending injury in late February). We'll analyze the matchups throughout the week, so check back often.

This will be the 10th matchup between MU and UK in the NCAA tournament. MU fans fondly remember the last two games -- a win in 1994 to send the Golden Eagles to the Sweet 16, and a win in 2003 to punch a ticket to the Final Four. The 7,000+ UK fans online at their Rivals site might have a different perspective.

The Sporting News wonders if this is the year that MU can break through and earn an NCAA win - - check out their South Regional capsule. Reaction at MUScoop here.

Once again the Big East sent more teams to the tournament than any other league -- eight (GU #2, Louisville #3, Pitt #4, UConn #4, ND #5, WVU #7, Villanova #12). The Big Televen sent just four teams.

Game times will be announced on Monday. We'll keep you posted.

What do we have here?

After Saturdays' heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette is 21-7 and 11-6 --- fine records with just two regular season games remaining.

However, a closer look reveals a team that is much more susceptible to bad matchup games than just about any Big East 'contender'. Marquette's struggles in halfcourt sets continues to rear its ugly head in games against the nation's best, limiting MU's success in those marquee matchups. The net: for Marquette to win a game or two in the NCAA tournament, this squad must be matched up against an opponent who allows easier baskets in halfcourt sets, otherwise it is hard to like this team's chances. Consider:

• MU is 1-5 against the top four teams in the Big East (1-1 v ND, 0-1 v UConn, 0-2 v Ville, 0-1 v GU), including two losses at the Bradley Center.
  
• UConn, Georgetown, and Louisville are among the nation's best at defending the interior. These squads rank in the top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense inside the arc.
• MU shot 40% or worse from the field against each of these opponents, shooting 34% or less in three of the four games. In fact, the 40% from the field against UConn was propped up by a hot second half in Storrs -- when the game was already in the bag for the Huskies.
  
• The only exception to this equation is Wisconsin, which is 10th nationally in eFG% inside the arc. MU made 47% from the floor that day, way back in December.
  
• Marquette is 3-7 against teams in the RPI top 50, but is 6-0 against teams #51-100.
  

This team definitely has a ceiling.

Despite returning nearly its entire roster year-to-year along with a greatly improved Lazar Hayward, MU remains unable to execute effectively against stingy halfcourt defenses. Moreover, as the year has progressed, MU has shown no discernible improvement against teams that defend the interior well. In fact, there is strong evidence that MU has regressed against teams that fit this profile. The Golden Eagles' 25% shooting from the field in the final 25 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon bears this out.

On the other side of this equation are the teams that do not defend as well inside the arc. MU makes mincemeat of teams like this - - examples include Seton Hall, Villanova, and to some degree Notre Dame. Other signs of hope were noted in in Rosiak's blog wrap-up of the game when he noted that "MU had 15 steals for the third consecutive game. It also forced 20-plus turnovers for the fourth consecutive game." Clearly these trends speak well of MU's strengths, and if the Golden Eagles made just one more free throw in regulation it might not feel like the sky is falling in some quarters.

**BTW, Rosiak's game wrap-up blogs are terrific....he injects a level of commentary and observation that is absent in the straight reporting required of a beat writer. Bueno, Todd!

In summary, teams that force Marquette to execute in the halfcourt beat Marquette. As constructed, the Golden Eagles have a limited offensive arsenal that is more easily defended by opponents who commit to shutting down anything inside. The drive and dish complemented by modest ball reversal only works well in spurts against teams that fit this profile. Unless MU lands up with an NCAA tournament