McNeal Destroys Notre Dame

UPDATED

Jerel McNeal went off for 28 points to defeat #14 Notre Dame in the 2nd round of the BET, in what is the biggest post-season victory for Marquette in the Post-Wade era. Marquette beat the hated Domers 89-79.

Marquette, down 10 early in the 2nd half, came roaring back to take and keep a 10 point lead. MU scored a whopping 57 points in the 2nd half. MU shot a blistering 52% for the night.

McNeal was beyond superlative, hitting 9 for 16, including 4 for 7 from long range. Lazar chipped in 16 and James 10. DJ had 10 points and you take a line score of 10/6/6 any day of the week.

Mo Acker started slow, missing his first couple shots, but he heated up, collecting 11 points with several daggers in the final 5 minutes.

Barro did a very decent job guarding ND's Harangody, who ended up with 13.

Marquette will face Pittsburgh, as the Panthers upset Louisville, who most picked to win the BET. Same Bat-Time, Same Bat-Channel. 8:30 CST, ESPN.

Marquette white-washed Pittsburgh last month, beating them at the Bradley Center by 18 points. Pitt may have some tired legs, using 8 players in their OT win. MU used 11 players tonight, in regulation.

Fire up, Marquette!

• Wrap/Official Box Score
• Video Highlights
• Chicago Tribune's coverage of the game (mostly from an ND perspective)
• Separate story on McNeal by the Chicago Tribune
• Rosiak's Recap
• Rosiak's blog focuses more on the favorable matchups from the 6th seed. Lots of good stuff in Rosiak's blog (as usual)
• ESPN's video highlights of the game

MU advances to play Notre Dame in the BET

MU overcame the feisty Seton Hall Pirates 67-54 to advance to the quarterfinal round of the Big East tourney. In one of the ugliest games in recent memory, Jerel McNeal's sublime performance was the difference. The slashing guard led MU with 21 points, hauled in 9 boards and dished out four assists. Dominic James landed up with 11 points, five boards and four steals -- each of which came in the last three minutes of regulation to help seal the victory. Lazar Hayward came through with a big second half, earning another double/double with 15 and 10.

The story of the night was offensive rebounding where MU snared 21 boards on their way to a 52-29 advantage on the glass. Despite that dominance, MU was unable to convert consistently (the Golden Eagles only shot 34% from the floor) and was miserable at the charity stripe (20-35, 57%).

Survive and advance.

Seton Hall Media Updates

• Box Score
• AP recap
• Rosiak's recap
• Adam Zagoria blogs the game
• Ray Floriani on Day One at the BET
• Rosiak's blog on the night
  

With the win, Marquette improves to 23-8 on the season and will lace'em up against the Notre Dame Fightin' Irish tonight at 8pm CST. Marquette and Notre Dame split the regular season matchups with each team winning at home. Here's a quick look back:

MU/ND Game One
MU knocks off ND - game recap.
MU knocks off ND --numbers recap.

ND knocks off MU - game recap
ND knocks off MU -- numbers recap.

Notre Dame Numbers Recap - Game 2

Let's jump right into the numbers.

Four Factors Recap


The way that the majority of these numbers play out show how close the game was. This was clearly a game where offense ruled. Similar to the last game, Marquette was able to win the battle of effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and turnovers, but lost on Offensive Rebounding and Free Throw Rate (more on that in a second). Thanks to shooting 12-25 from three, Marquette had a good showing on eFG%. The Turnover Rate for Marquette was outstanding, but Notre Dame did a much better job protecting the ball this game than last time (31% at the BC). As a reminder, 20% is considered average, so ND was better than average. ND won the battle of offensive rebounding again, but the difference was not all that great. No, the big difference in this game was the free throw line.

Is there a legitimate gripe about free throws or not?

The answer is actually somewhat murky. By now, we all know the numbers. Thirty one free throws for Notre Dame as opposed to Marquette's eight free throws. On the one hand, Notre Dame is the number two team in the country at limiting teams to Free Throw Rate. Their opponents average a Free Throw Rate of 20.7%, so our rate of 11% for this game was half of that. Seven of Notre Dame's Opponents have ended up with a Free Throw Rate under 15%. Furthermore, in our last game, we had a FTR of 20.6% and ND still had a FTR of 43.1%.

On the other hand, Marquette averages a per-game Free Throw Rate of 35.5%. Our standard deviation for this FTR is 10.7%. Therefore, 95% of our Free Throw Rates should be between 14% and 57%. In other words, the Free Throw Rate for this game was in the bottom 2.5% of all expected results. Of course, we are dealing with a sample size of twenty-two games too. Also, as reported by AC016097 at the MarquetteHoops.com board, Marquette didn't shoot any free throws in the last fifteen minutes of the game, while ND shot 17. There would seem to be some semblance of a legitimate beef.

But what's done is done, and if Marquette hits a few more of those bunnies, it's all a moot point.

Big East Projected Finish

Pomeroy predicts us with a record of 22-8 (11-7), which would mean finishing 6-2 in our final eight games. Based on our Big East season stats, we predict to a conference record of 9.5-8.5. That would mean finishing 4-4 or 3-5. Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we predict to a conference record of 11.6 - 6.4. That would mean finishing 7-1 or 6-2. I'll take either the Pomeroy or last five games predictions, please!

Individual Player Ratings


There's a few good things about the Individual Player Ratings. First, it's nice to see Dominic James break out of his slump. It's also great to see Lazar bounce back from his rough game against Louisville. Hayward is clearly the most valuable (statistical) player on the team, especially when we consider conference play.

However, there were some rough games for McNeal, Matthews, and Barro. Matthews has been one of the best players on the team during conference play, but this was a poor game. It was nice to see Barro contribute on the Defensive End, but his offensive outing was hard to watch. I do believe that if he gets 2-3 more field goals to drop, we're talking about what a great game he had. McNeal was average on defense, but poor on offense. Frankly, for as harsh as people have been on the team thus far, McNeal seems to get a pass, but he's probably having the least impact on the team out of our top four players. That's not good for the 06-07 team MVP.

Later on this week, we'll have more on DJ, McNeal, Matthews, and Lazar, looking at year-to-date stats, conference stats, and individual Win-Loss Records. For now, let's move on to Seton Hall, where we'll hopefully start that final season run of 7-1.

MU Loses @ Notre Dame

Marquette loses another on the road.

Marquette trailed Notre Dame for most of the game, down 10 with 2:34 to play, heading for a double-digit loss. Playing inspired offense and defense down those last 2 minutes, MU nearly tied the game on a last second shot, but fell short. Final score, 86-83 bad guys.

Dominic James led the Warriors with 23 points, scoring 10 in the final 2 minutes of play, with ND playing soft. Lazar Hayward had 21 points and 11 rebounds for a double-double. One sore spot was Jerel McNeal's play, who went 3-15 and missed a layup/dunk attempt while completely unguarded. The Ooze also had a tough day, going 1-9, although he did snag 12 rebounds.

While Marquette still might have lost, the officiating was lopsided, to say the least. The refs awarded Notre Dame 31 free throws to MU's 8, and blew some obvious calls, most notably, a kicked ball that a ref called an over-and-back violation, giving ND the ball.

No one should be surprised Marquette couldn't pull off a victory at Notre Dame today. ND has a 33 game home winning streak (which began after a MU victory 2 years ago). MU was a 5 point dog. MU was 1-3 on the road in the Big East. Notre Dame, while picked to finish 9th in the Big East, is easily one of the top 4 teams in the Big East, and are #21 in the country. It was a game we were supposed to lose, and if there's a bright side, played hard in the 2nd half and weren't blown out like our other road losses.

With the loss, Marquette is solidly in the middle of the Big East, at 6-5 and is on the road to Seton Hall on Tuesday.

For the record, I am now 11 for 11 in picking BE games for CS's pre-season predictions. Let's hope that's right down the stretch, winning 6 of the last 8 games. Hope, hope, hope.

• AP Wrap / Official Box / Play by Play

Notre Dame Numbers Recap

In our Notre Dame Preview, we said to watch for Offensive Rebounding Percentage for both squads, the Turnover Percentage for ND, and the Free Throw Rate that Marquette allows on Defense.


Turnovers and a high Field Goal Percentage overcome sup-par Offensive Rebounding and Free Throws

As has already been covered, Turnovers were the story of the game. Thanks to an excellent game plan, Marquette managed to harass Notre Dame into 24 turnovers. ND came into the game as one of the top 10% teams in protecting the ball, turning it over less than one in five possessions. For this game, however Notre Dame essentially turned the ball over one out of every three possessions, for their worst turnover rate of the year.

After two consecutive season worsts in both Efficiency and effective Field Goal percentage, Marquette was able to get back on track with strong outings in both areas. Shooting 12-24 from downtown will help a lot, so lets hope that the efficiency continues this Thursday.

In somewhat concerning news, Marquette had another sub-par outing at Offensive Rebounding %. Yet again, Marquette ended up well below their average (now 39.4%). In their last three games, MU has had three of their six worst results at Offensive Rebounding. At one point, our team was #7 in the country at Offensive Rebounding, but we are not getting it done in conference play.

Finally, thanks to Luke Harangody, Marquette ended up allowing higher than their season average on Free Throw Rate. ND took a free throw 43% of the time that they took a shot. Feel free to gripe about Harangody here at MUScoop.com.

When we match up with ND again, let's hope that MU is able to shore up that Offensive Rebounding and not commit as many fouls. We certainly can't expect to force ND into yet another season worst in turnovers.

Individual Ratings


In a 26-point victory, there is plenty of credit to go around. Interestingly enough, Dominic James is the statistical "stud of the game". Despite going 6-15 with 3 turnovers, James also chipped in with seven assists, three rebounds, four steals, and three 3-pointers. Unsurprisingly, Lazar Hayward and Jerel McNeal are right behind. After a few negative outings, it's good to see both Wesley Matthews and David Cubillan back in the positive column. Finally, despite the positive accolades for Lawrence "Trend" Blackledge, note that his impact to the overall game (energy and sick blocks notwithstanding), was actually about the same as Ousmane Barro's.

Additional Links

I'm sure that many of you have seen the following links, but in case there's something new, please enjoy.

South Bend Tribune
South Bend Tribune Commentary
Chicago Tribune Recap
Chicago Tribune's Commentary on the MU-ND Rivalry (by Dan McGrath)
Rosiak Wraps Up ND on his blog at jsonline.com

Let's move on to Louisville!

Marquette Stomps ND 92-66

Marquette (13-2, 3-1) scored its first bucket immediately after the opening tip, and never looked back.

Jerel McNeal led MU with 18, but the Warriors had 5 guys in double digits, and the stud of the game was clearly Lazar Hayward.

Lazar poured in 17 on 6-11 shooting, 4 steals and a team high 11 rebounds, a quality double-double in 28 minutes. His performance was superlative, though the rest of the team had a couple dozen highlight reel moments themselves.

Marquette had no answer for ND's Luke Harangody, who easily poured in 29 points. With 15 minutes left, a guy in the row behind me said "That guy is going to hit 30 points." My answer: If we're lucky. -- Harangody is the real deal, and Burke, Ooze, and occasionally Trend Blackledge, "guarded" him to no avail, getting whistled 13 times.

Fortunately, when Marquette did have the ball, they found the net, hitting 46% for the night, and an huge 50% from 3-point land. MU also stole the ball 17 times, and had a great 23 to 13 Assist/TO ratio.

Trend had a quality outing, however, going 3-3, 6 points and two blocked shots in 14 minutes. On the post-game show, Crean gave credit to his wife Joani, who told him to play Trend more. Who knew Joani was the evil genius behind Tom?

Of note, Notre Dame had a couple thousand fans in attendance in the "sold out" Bradley Center. I'd bought tickets for a group of friends, who ended up next to a large Domer section. My good friend, Matt, said it was OK to be so close to them, because "you could see their tears better."

AP Recap / Box Score / Play by Play

JS Audio of Crean's Post Game

Game Shots from 204

ESPN Video Highlights

Marquette aims to take the fight to the Irish

Saturday afternoon. Big game. Rivalry game. .......how fantastic is this!

Matt from the ND blog did a great job on previewing the Irish, now let's get specific with the Top Five Numbers to Know about Notre Dame. Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

17 - Notre Dame's Pomeroy Ranking

• Notre Dame is a top 20 team according to Pomeroy (RPI of 52)
• Marquette is ranked #6 according to Pomeroy (RPI of 23)

0 - Number of Away games that Notre Dame has played

• The Irish have played four games at neutral sites, but none on an opponent's home court

27.1% - Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) that Notre Dame allows on defense

• As a reminder, OR% is the number of offensive rebounds out of total possible rebounds. The equation is Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent DR). Each defensive rebound by the opponent is a potential offensive rebound.
  
• The OR% allowed by Notre Dame is 15th best in the country.
• They've only allowed five opponents to crack 30%, and only one opponent has hit 40%.
  
• Marquette is averaging 40.1% on offense, but has been shut down in their last two games by West Virginia (25%) and Seton Hall (30.6%)
• In both of the Domer's losses, their opponent grabbed over 35% on offensive rebound percentage
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage is the matchup of the game

18.4% - Notre Dame's Turnover Rate while on offense

• ND turns the ball over less than one in five possessions
• This places them in the top 10% of all Division 1 teams
• Marquette is facing their third straight opponent that protects the ball very well
• However, we are forcing opponents into a turnover rate of 23.7%, and we pushed both WV and SHU into more turnovers than they usually commit

35.8% - Marquette's average Free Throw Rate on defense

• Free Throw Rate is Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted
• When our opponents are held under 35%, Marquette wins
• In the two losses, our opponents have gone over 50% on Free Throw Rate, meaning that the opponent was shooting a free throw every other time they took a shot
  

Summary
Notre Dame is a very good team, and we should feel concerned about this game. However, they have yet to face a rabid home crowd such as the Bradley Center. Notre Dame's success depends on how they do at securing and preventing offensive rebounds, as well as protecting the ball. Marquette needs to return to their previous offensive rebounding prowess and to limit the amount of times that ND gets to the line.

Should be a great game. Pomeroy forecasts a 79% chance of a Marquette win. Look for the team to play inspired basketball and perform like Warriors.

Let's rock the Bradley Center on Saturday, because Marquette's gonna roll!

Links

• Here is the GoMarquette preview.
• IWB's video preview over at the Sportsbubbler.
• CBS has a preview on YouTube.
• CS' breakdown over at the ND blog.
• Eric Silver's fine preview at MarquetteHoops.
• Big East Basketball Report picks MU to top the Irish.
• Rosiak's Preview, with a focus on Harangody
• Chicago Tribune preview, looking at the matchup from ND's perspective

EDIT: Added additional links

Know your opponent: Notre Dame

Ah, a genuine rivalry game........The Irish come to town on Saturday, and we're pleased to welcome Matt from the Notre Dame basketball blog (aka the Black and Green Irish Men's Basketball Report) to our latest installment of "Know Your Opponent".

BTW, check out our Q/A on the Golden Eagles over on the ND blog.

Matt was kind enough to provide this in-depth Q/A to get everybody up to speed on Mike Brey's squad who enter the game at 12-2 overall, 2-0 in the BIG EAST. Matt ........ take it away:

Mike Brey had a successful formula in 06-07, what's he done differently with this bunch to get out to a fast start?

Coach Brey relied on two freshman starters last year in Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody. Their continued improvement and Kyle McAlarney's return has helped offset the loss of Colin Falls and Russell Carter. Falls was a pretty one-dimensional player, great three-point shooter with a high basketball IQ. McAlarney's return from a semester-long suspension has made up for the lost outside shooting of Falls. Though this year's team misses the penetration ability of Carter, his erratic shot selection took us out of a couple games last year. Most importantly, Tory Jackson has shown the ability to distribute the basketball alongside McAlarney in the backcourt and Luke Harangody is growing by leaps and bounds in the post. He could be the conference player of the year by the time he graduates.

Which ND players are exceeding expectations this year?

Harangody and McAlarney have improved a lot this season. Luke lost some weight over the offseason and is showing some more versatility in the post. Kyle has stepped into the shooting guard position with ease and has turned from a distributor into a great shooter. The other player who doesn't show up in the stat book but has impressed more than last season is Ryan Ayers. Ayers was tabbed as the replacement for Russell Carter this season, a selection I to which originally objected. However, he has shown the ability to knock down open looks from outside when given the opportunity and plays great perimeter defense. He's a very smart player who never shows up big in the box score, but does the little things the team needs on the floor.

Harangody. He dominated MU last year, and leads a talented frontcourt. Can you breakdown the Irish bigs?

Luke has grown tremendously this season. Last year, he was a raw talent who could throw his weight around in the post. This season, he has trimmed up and can go to the basket with a variety of different moves. Also plays great defense. The addition of a deadly midrange jumper has turned him into an all-around player. He has shown the ability to consistently knock down any open look from within the arc. The only player who has truly shut him down this season was Thabeet from Connecticut. Luke was at least 7 inches shorter (Thabeet- 7'3", Gody- maybe 6'8") and had trouble shooting over the big man. If he lines up against anyone under 7 feet, he can dominate (see Beasley, Michael).

Rob Kurz is a terrific captain. The lone senior, he is our other post threat. Doesn't do a lot of flashy things on the floor, but can collect a double-double before you know it. Very quiet, and not the bruiser that Harangody can be, but has more of an all-around game. Can hit any open shot beyond the arc and works his way to double digit rebound totals most nights.

Off the bench, Zach Hillesland is our first option. He's more of a small forward, but can play solid interior defense when required. The Irish like to keep Kurz or Harangody on the floor most of the time, however, due to our lack of depth. Luke Zeller has been a disappointment. Now a junior, he came in as a 6'11" Mr. Basketball in Indiana. Not physical enough to play in the post, he has a great touch from outside but just has not developed as the inside threat Brey hoped he would be.

What types of teams give the Irish the most trouble?

This is a tough question, as Notre Dame played a cupcake non-conference schedule and have rarely been challenged before last week. In the two losses, Notre Dame either got into serious foul trouble or turned the ball over a lot. The common factor between the two games was the opponent's ability to take away the outside shot. Kyle McAlarney shot a combined 4-19 against Baylor and Georgia Tech. Good defense/poor shot selection on his part took away one big part of the Irish offense. Protecting the perimeter left both teams vulnerable in the middle, with Luke Harangody scoring 22 in both contests. You can't stop both McAlarney and Harangody, so teams have to focus on one or the other.

What types of teams do the Irish best matchup against?

Just do the opposite of Baylor or Georgia Tech. Harangody has 6 games of 20 points or more. McAlarney has 4. From November 24th to December 29th, both players scored in double figures and the Irish were undefeated. This included such lopsided scores as 108-62, 94-63, and 87-54. Obviously most of the contests were against inferior talent. Still, on December 4th against Kansas St., McAlarney scored 18 and Harangody had 19 points and 14 rebounds.

Notre Dame plays great defense, much improved over last season. As West Virginia found out, it can be difficult to score against the Irish. Unless you can stop McAlarney and Harangody, Notre Dame has little trouble winning.

There you have it. Bamm-Bamm and Mac are really ND's catalysts. Step one for an opponent would be stopping one or the other (you can't stop both). When ND lost in the Virgin Islands, it was when McAlarney was unable to connect on his shots. Harangody really stepped into the player he is now, but was unable to carry the team. Likewise, when 'Gody was held in check (or a headlock) by Thabeet, Kyle was able to pull out a close victory for us.

Matt, thanks very much for an outstanding report. Folks, be sure to click over to the Black and Green Irish Men's Basketball Report for updates on ND throughout the year.

Marquette loses to Notre Dame. Buh-Bye, Bye.

Marquette lost to Notre Dame today, 85-73, officially ending MU's bid for a second consecutive bye in the Big East Tournament.

Marquette started very strong, building a 13 point lead in the first half, but due to foul trouble, faded quickly.


It was an angry game, as Coach Crean was livid about a push and non-call, needing to be restrained by Coach Rab, nearly earning a Technical. DJ later received a T, as did Fitz.

Marquette has now lost 4 of its last 5 games, heading into the season finale with Pittsburgh at the Bradley Center next Saturday.

This post will be revised later, as the sting of losing to Notre Dame subsides.

AP Recap
GoMarquette Recap
Official Box Score
Marquette Photo Gallery

Road Warriors Look to End Notre Dame's Streak

The Marquette Golden Eagles invade South Bend tomorrow hoping to spoil the Irish's perfect record at home this season. Notre Dame's 17-0 record at home speaks for itself. Nevertheless, Marquette has been one of the nation's best road/neutral teams this season with seven wins away from home. Still, Marquette has not won a road game since its miraculous finish at USF last month and flies into South Bend with three losses in its last four games.

Marquette (22-7, 9-5) and the Irish (21-6, 9-5) are battling for a coveted first-round bye in the upcoming Big East Tournament. The winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track on that slot. FWIW, in addition to their gaudy 17-0 record the Irish will have extra incentive on Saturday as they celebrate Senior Night by honoring Colin Falls and Russell Carter.

The game will be broadcast on ABC beginning at 2:30pm CST.

Throughout the day we'll expand on this post and provide links to other previews. Here's the rundown:

• Todd Rosiak blogs on Mike Brey's commentary from the ND coach's media call yesterday.
• Eric Silver looks at the Irish in-depth.
• Scout.com recaps TC's presser on the ND game.
• Michael Hunt of the MJS' offers a column today that hits the spot: despite MU's youthful roster, expectations are high for this bunch as we move into March.
• Here is the MUScoop header for tomorrow's tilt.