Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?

(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)

Numbers for all five games of the post-season

When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.

What happened to the turnovers?

As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.

The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.

Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.

But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong

Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud

Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.

Taking his game to the next level...

This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.

Getting to Know Stanford - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Stanford. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Stanford has an overall Pomeroy Rating of #10. (Marquette is still at #12) Like Kentucky, Stanford prefers a slower pace to the game at 65 possessions / game, which is #242 in the country.

Stanford's Offensive Efficiency (115.8 - Rank of #25) gets better because of:

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - average of 50.1% (national rank of 155)
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - average of 39.8% (national rank of 7)
  

Like every team, the Cardinal's offense looks to how well they do at field goal percentage. In this area, they are average. However, as one might expect for a team with two seven-footers, they do an outstanding job at offensive rebounding. Digging into Stanford's offensive numbers further, they are #6 in the country at not getting blocked and they shoot one of the lowest amount of threes in the country (#316).

Stanford's Defensive Efficiency (86.2 - Rank of #6) gets better because of:

• Limiting Turnovers - average TO Rate of 18.9% (rank of 54)
• Forcing Turnovers - average TO Rate for opponents of 17.8 (rank of 318)

I find it interesting that how often they turn the ball over impacts their defensive efficiency. Obviously, it will be key for Marquette to force a lot of turnovers. Also, their Defensive Efficiency gets worse when:

• Opponents get a good eFG% - average rate of 43.8% (#8 in the country)
• Opponents do well at OR% - average rate of 28.4% (#17 in the country)
  

Stanford is really good defensively, and they don't have any areas that Marquette usually exploits. Offensive Rebounding has been huge for Marquette in the post-season, and tomorrow's game will provide a huge test. Did we also mention that they're #6 in the country at preventing 2-point baskets and #35 in the country at blocking shots? These are just like the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

How well have the Cardinal been playing lately?


Here is some good news. Over their last twelve games, Stanford's Offense and their Defense have been getting worse. In fact, until their rout of Cornell, Stanford was at a point where they were not playing winning basketball. Their ORtg (106.8) and DRtg (99.2) over the last five games are not nearly as impressive as their season numbers. Based on how well they have been playing and how well we have been playing over the last five games (using the Bill James log5 method), the numbers give us a 42% chance of winning the game. Of course, numbers don't play on the basketball court...

Summary
Stanford has better offensive and defensive numbers than Marquette, and they have strengths in areas that have caused us a lot of problems. This is one tough matchup. However, Stanford is impacted on both ends by the Turnover battle, which is an area Marquette will need to win. Plus, the Cardinal have not been playing as well lately, so there are some opportunities for Marquette to exploit.

Finally, remember the lesson from another good team. That team is #1 at defense according to Pomeroy. They don't turn the ball over much, they usually win offensive rebounding, they really limit two point baskets, and they get to the free throw line a lot. They also have a lot of size inside. Marquette managed to do just fine in pulling out a win at Wisconsin thanks to crashing the offensive boards and forcing a lot of turnovers.

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Getting to Know Kentucky - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Kentucky. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

We're going to change up the format a bit because it's the NCAA Tournament -- note that earlier we did a sweep around the Internet to catch all of the day's best media updates.

Let's focus on UK right now:

Overall Pomeroy Rating of 61. That's one of the lowest for any at-large team in the NCAA tournament.
Adjusted tempo of 63.9 possessions / game (#281 in the country).

Kentucky's Offensive Efficiency (National rank of 95) Depends on:

• effective Field Goal % - Average of 52.6% (national rank of 62)
• Offensive Rebounding % - Average of 32.2 (national rank of 203)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky does well at eFG%, but how well they do offensively also depends on their ability to offensive rebound and prevent their opponents from getting to the line. Both areas are relatively weak for Kentucky.

Although it's not correlated with their offensive efficiency, Kentucky is also one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. They shoot a free throw 30.3% of the time that they take a field goal attempt (#25 in the country). Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from getting to the free throw line.

Kentucky's Defensive Efficiency (national rank of 39) Depends on:

• Opponents' eFG% - Average of 44.9% (national rank of 21)
• Forcing Opponents Turnovers - Average of 19.5% (national rank of 252)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky's eFG% defense is actually very strong (more on this in a bit). However, just like offensive efficiency, their defensive strength comes from a weak area of forcing turnovers. Note that their ability to prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line affects both their offense and their defense. Marquette must get to the free throw line!

The Wildcat's eFG% defense is anchored by an exceptionally strong ability to limit 2-point field goals (#17 in the country) and to block shots (#33 in the country). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is similar to the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Combined with the free throw rate and yes, those are warning bells going off. The areas where Kentucky is strong are areas that Marquette has struggled this year. The key difference between Kentucky and the previously mentioned teams is that Kentucky also has a lot more exploitable weaknesses.

• Kentucky turns the ball over on more than 23% of all possessions (#291 in the country). That is sweet, sweet music for Marquette.
• Kentucky is mediocre at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds (#141 in the country). Although MU's OR% has been up and down this year, we are still #27 in the country, and our performance was very strong in the BET.
• As previously mentioned, Kentucky does a poor job of limiting opponents from getting to the free throw line.
• They also do a poor job of forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Basically, the game will come down to how well Marquette forces turnovers/gets offensive rebounds vs how well Kentucky does at forcing a half-court game and preventing easy 2-point baskets.

How has Kentucky been Trending?

Here's a view of how Kentucky has been trending since the start of conference play. Conventional wisdom is that Kentucky has been playing well lately based on a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, their offense and defense run in parallel paths. In other words, when the offense gets better, the defense gets worse (and vice versa).

For a long stretch (Vanderbilt -> Tennessee #2), their defense was worse than their offense. Teams don't win much when that happens, but yet Kentucky kept winning. Lately, their offense has been improving, but their defense has also been getting worse, although the team is still playing winning basketball. I would say that the conventional wisdom on Kentucky playing well is focusing more on their offensive improvements and less on defensive shortcomings.

Keep coming back regularly to Cracked Sidewalks, where we'll have lots more analysis and media updates.

Bring On Pittsburgh!

UPDATED
After the rubber match against Notre Dame yielded a Marquette Victory, MU Nation now readies themselves for a semi-final game against Pittsburgh. Game time is tonight on ESPN at 8:30 Milwaukee time.

There was a certain pep in our steps after finding out that Pitt had defeated Louisville. After all, let's face it... Louisville pretty much wiped the floor with Marquette both times. However, in our first game, Marquette thumped Pitt. In addition, Marquette has a recent record of 4-2 against Pitt and we match up fairly well. There is a decent chance that MU can end up in the Big East finals.

However, Pitt enters this game having won five of their last six games, including a stunning win at Syracuse and last night's overtime victory against Louisville. In last night's game, Sam Young contributed 21 points and 12 rebounds. Young was selected as the Big East Most Improved Player, and was also the Cracked Sidewalks choice as well. If nothing else, in their last five games, Pitt defeated two teams against whom Marquette struggled mightily.

As a blog commenter noted, that first game was Levance Fields' first game back after injury, and he was ineffectual. Since that point, he has worked his way back into the full rotation. As the starting PG, Fields does a great job protecting the ball, which will make it harder to force as many turnovers. Furthermore, the Pitt fan base travels well, and will certainly comprise the majority of cheering fans tonight. There is a lot going well for Pitt right now, and they will also have the motivational edge of exacting revenge for the last game. Do not expect that tonight's game will have the same blowout result as the game at the Bradley Center!

What led to our victory against Pitt? Looking at the Pittsburgh Numbers Recap, we can see that Marquette had an edge in every single one of the four factors. Marquette also dominated on defense, holding Pitt to an efficiency far worse than normal. Marquette shot extremely well, forced Pitt into far more turnovers than normal, and turned the game into one at MU's tempo. Not that it had anything to do with the victory, but this was also the game that Trevor Mbakwe was first cleared to play.

For tonight's game, not much is different than the first Game Preview for Pittsburgh. Pitt remains a team with a stronger offense than defense, highlighted by their ferocity on the offensive glass and stinginess with turnovers.

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh.

• 118.2 - The Offensive Efficiency that Pitt averages on Offense
• That's #12 in the country, at 1.18 points / possession
• 242 - Pitt's national rank at pace
• Pitt plays one of the slowest paces in D1, and they have to.
  
• Their defense is correlated with pace, meaning that the slower the tempo the better their defense
• 67 - Pitt's national rank at defense
• Despite a good showing against Louisville, don't believe the hype about the Pittsburgh defense!
• Only once in the last ten games has their defense been better than average (below 100), although it was last night
  
• Pitt wins games on the offensive end of the court
• 9 - Pitt's national rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• Pitt grabs almost 40% of all potential offensive rebounds. That's obviously pretty good.
• 18.7% - Pitt's turnover rate on offense
• That's #37 in the country
  
• When we played them last, Pitt was harassed into a turnover rate of 23%

The formula for Marquette to beat Pitt is simple. Force turnovers, push the pace, and keep them off the offensive glass. Even with the return of Fields, Marquette matches up well in all of those areas, so expect a much tighter game than last time but a Marquette victory.

edit: Added information about Levance Fields

Media Updates

UPDATED
Just a few quick links before things kick off tomorrow night.

Basketball Prospectus previews the conference tourneys for the Big East, as well as Conference USA, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and the Pac-10. Marquette is given a 90% chance of beating Seton Hall and a 56% chance of making it to the semi's. Our odds of winning the whole tournament? 15%! Pomeroy also says:

I believe Marquette would be the first team to go 4-0 in two different conference tourneys if they were to pull this off. Back in '97, they won the CUSA Tourney by winning four games in four days.

Dwyane Wade's season is over. If you didn't catch it this morning, Steve Novak was also on the front of espn.com.

The JSOnline Weekly Marquette Report (still not calling it Golden Eagles) covers who is Hot and who is Not

Rosiak's preview calls Seton Hall a good matchup, and discusses how our current draw in the Big EAST tournament is favorable. Concerned about winning three times in one season against an opponent? According to Spiral97 at MUScoop.com, in 2007 a team that won the first two games ended up winning 71.4% of the time.

The Journal-Sentinel also published their All-State Starting Five CB Team, and Dominic James was left off of the list. Michael Flowers was named Player of the Year, so good for him. Frankly, I really can't quibble with Dominic James being left off the list. He finished third in cumulative net points for Marquette at 81.2 pts, just behind Lazar Hayward (82.8 pts) and Jerel McNeal (98.0 points). However, I do have to wonder how much of this is due to the fact that James has had two highly criticized games in the last week. Is this just an example of recency bias?

Former Marquette recruiting target Frank Ben-Eze has decommitted from Harvard, according to the NY Times. Although, Marquette is already one player over the signing limit, there is a good chance we'll see him more in the future. Connecticut, Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, DePaul and Rutgers have already inquired about Ben-Eze's availability.

The Bracket Project, an aggregation of NCAA seeding prognostications, has MU listed as a 6 seed right now.

Finally, The Big East Basketball Report posted its annual post-season bloggers' all conference selections. Click here to check it out.

Here's a look at the 2007-2008 Cracked Sidewalks All-Big East ballot:

Big East POY
Luke Harangody: toughest player in the Big East

FIRST TEAM
Roy Hibbert .... best player on the best team in the league
Donte Greene .... high energy, productive player
AJ Price ... finally arrives as the player many expected to see years ago
Kyle McAlarney ...... exceptional bounce back season
Terrence Williams ..... best all-around player in the league

SECOND TEAM
Jerel McNeal .... one of the league's best disruptors
Dominic James ... played through injury and turned in a productive season
Kentrell Gransberry .... a beast on the blocks
Deonta Vaughn ... key to the surprising Bearcats
Jeff Adrien .... an absolute load for the Huskies

THIRD TEAM
Sam Young ..... versatile forward led the Panthers
David Padgett .... Ville's most vital player?
Jerry Smith ..... solid all-around performer
Jonathan Wallace .... under-appreciated talent
Scottie Reynolds .... somewhat of a sophomore slump but still among the best

Big East Freshman of the Year
Dante Greene

All-Freshman FIRST TEAM
Jonny Flynn
Dominique Jones
DaJuan Blair
Mac Koshwal
Dar Tucker

All-Freshman SECOND TEAM
Austin Freeman
Justin Burrell
Mike Coburn
Antonio Pena
Corey Fisher

Coach of the Year
John Thompson

Defensive Player of the Year
Hasheem Thabeet

Most Improved Player
Sam Young

Syracuse Numbers Recap

Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Four Factors Review

Despite looking lost and confused for much of the game against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Marquette had an about average day offensively. It was worse than our season average, but still not that bad. As evidenced by the 118.2 efficiency that Syracuse achieved, this was a game lost on the defensive end. Interestingly enough, although Syracuse is one of the top teams in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, that was the only one of the four factors that Marquette won. Thanks to their dominating inside presence, Syracuse was able to achieve an eFG% of 63%. In addition, Syracuse enjoyed a notable advantage at Free Throw Rate.

What really hurts, however, was that Marquette lost the Turnover Rate battle. Remember that for the season, Syracuse averages a turnover rate of 21.2%, so they did better than that against our vaunted defense. This is an aspect that Marquette almost always wins.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Trends


First of all, please note that none of these numbers include results against Florida Gulf Coast. It was a cupcake game, it skews the numbers, and I don't think that it's representative of how well the team is playing. The story is not pretty here. Marquette is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Our offense and our defense are both getting worse.

Underachieving

Our final Big EAST numbers for Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are 104.8 (Offense) and 98.9 (Defense). A team with those offensive and defensive numbers should have a final record of 11.9 - 6.1. Given that Marquette finished with a final record of 11-7, this means that the team underachieved.

effective Field Goal Percentage Trends

Hey, look! More bad news. Our offensive and defensive effective Field Goal percentages are also heading in the wrong directions again. Not only that, but...

Offensive Rebounding Trends

... the roller coaster that has been our offensive rebounding percentage is once again on the decline. Our offensive rebounding is getting worse and our opponents' offensive rebounding is getting better.

Individual Player Ratings

The only player that had a decent game was Jerel McNeal, but this is also an area where the defensive ratings fall short. Because the Box Score doesn't capture the number of times that Donte Greene scored an easy post-up basket on McNeal, his defensive ratings show up well. Everyone else pretty much had a hand in the seventeen point loss, and the worst impact on the game came from our floor general.

Summary

I'm decidedly bearish on Marquette's prospects for the post-season. Almost all of the numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and our team's strengths are in decline. The team has even underachieved according to those numbers. Not only that, but ignoring the numbers, Marquette is still only 3-8 against the RPI Top 50 teams. I'm not trying to be "doom and gloom" here, but if MU was a stock, I'd short it. It's too bad that fanhood isn't something that people can just dump and eliminate losses.

Of course, tomorrow is a new day, and the Big EAST Tournament is another chance to start fresh. Looks like we're going to face Seton Hall (according to Rosiak) for the third time this season. Game time will be 8 pm on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.

Marquette Closes Out Regular Season Against Syracuse

Fresh off of a dominating defensive victory over Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette (22-7, 11-6) now readies itself for their final regular season game of the year. On Saturday, Marquette will face a Syracuse squad that is 18-12 (8-9). The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 3 pm Milwaukee time. John Saunders and Len Elmore will be on the sidelines for MU's 13th national broadcast of the season.

The Orange are firmly off the bubble, but are looking to close out with a strong run and hopeful NCAA berth. In fact, Andy Katz has an article talking about Syracuse and the bubble. Due to injuries, the 'Cuse have been relying on seven players, including some talented freshmen and sophomores. At this point, Syracuse is a team that has been backed into a corner, so Marquette will have a very difficult time emerging with the win.

On the other hand, despite the heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette has mostly been playing well in the last seven games. This is especially true on the defensive end, and MU wants to recapture momentum heading into the post season. If nothing else, a loss to Syracuse will result in the team finishing sixth in the Big East (behind West Virginia). Barring an extended run in the Big East Tournament, a loss will almost certainly cost Marquette a seed in the NCAA tournament. For a fan base that is craving for the team to fulfill expectations of postseason success, good seeding will play a major role.

After players return from injuries, and Boeheim welcomes a solid recruiting class, the true window for Syracuse will be next year anyways. Let's look for Marquette to extinguish 'Cuse's NCAA hopes tomorrow. Our window is this year.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Syracuse
As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 26 - Syracuse's national rank at pace
• The Orange play one of the quicker tempos in Division 1 at just under 72 possessions per game
• Pace is actually positively correlated with Syracuse's offensive efficiency. In other words, the quicker the pace for the game the better Syracuse does offensively.
• Considering that they play their vaunted 2-3 zone and typically only utilize seven players, this is actually somewhat of a puzzle
• 21.6% - This is the Turnover Rate that Syracuse has on offense
• The 'Cuse have a national rank of 204
• As we have previously discussed, this is a good sign for Marquette's defense
• 19 - Syracuse's rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• The Orange are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Marquette needs to do a good job on the defensive glass
• 10 - Syracuse's national rank for block percentage
• Syracuse averages a block rate of 15.5%
• In the past, Marquette has struggled against teams that do a good job of blocking shots (UConn, Louisville, Georgetown)
• However, the rest of Syracuse's defense is only average (rank of 116)
  
• 53.8% - The field goal percentage that Syracuse averages on two-point baskets
• This is a rank of 14 among Division 1 schools
• A lot of this is due to the efforts of 6'9" sophomore Arinze Onuaku, who has an personal effective Field Goal Percentage of 64.7%. That's 17th best in the country.
• In contrast, Syracuse only averages 33.3% from three point land, which is only 247th in the country

In summary, Syracuse's strengths are their inside play. They do an excellent job of scoring two-point baskets, collecting offensive rebounds, and blocking shots. However, their overall defense is only average. In addition, although Syracuse likes to play a faster pace, this won't seem to harm Marquette. Look for the key to this game to hinge on how well our defense pressures Syracuse into more turnovers than they usually commit. Of course, this is no different than our usual game plan, but even more so given the Syracuse zone.

Media Updates (stay tuned for more links)

• ESPN 360 Preview of the Game
• GoMarquette.com preview
• Game Notes from GoMarquette.com
• Rosiak's Blog is live from Syracuse
  

Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

What do we have here (again)?

As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups. His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good. NYWarrior is absolutely right. After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams. When it matters, we don't beat the good teams. There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.

What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team. With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team. The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen. Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year. Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue. No true Marquette fan wants that.

Meeting Expectations

I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament. That is "meeting expectations". It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year. Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations". This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.

Recapturing the Momentum

Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.

The opportunity is still there for this team. It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated. Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast. Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament. Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games. But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.

Give Us a Reason to Believe

Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken. Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.

It's gut check time in Marquette-land.

Give us a reason to maintain that hope. Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast. Win against Syracuse and we'll believe. The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.

We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.

Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)

Four Factors Review


Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting. Each team was able to utilize their strengths. Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal. However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference. Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense. Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.

Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...

The Fifth Factor

Just kidding, folks. After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials, ever. Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not. A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.

Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.

Marquette Battles Georgetown on National TV

The schedule makers couldn't have done a better job of pitting Marquette against Georgetown this Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center. The Hoyas, tied with Louisville for first place in the Big East, have won three in a row. Marquette, winners of five straight, are surging and looking to secure favorable seeding in both the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. This game is huge for Marquette, and Georgetown needs the win to stay in the running for the Big East championship.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here's hoping Clark Kellogg comments on Marquette's "spurtability" early and often during the broadcast. To win this game, MU must force turnovers and dictate a quicker pace to create (hopefully) easier opportunities against the stingy Hoya defense.

Saturday is also National Marquette Day. If you are unable to watch the game live, then get out there with alums in your city and watch it in a group setting. We Are Marquette!

Media Updates - tons of links!
CBS Sportsline video preview
Rivals.com with an outstanding preview
Washington Times on the Hoyas' quest for the top seed in the BET
Hoya Hoops with a numbers preview
Scout.com preview
Marquette.com preview and game notes
Hoya Saxa with a preview
College Hoops Net with a great preview
Seth Davis picks us to win
ESPN's Weekend Watch Highlights Dominic James
Rosiak's blog has a great preview with lots of strategy comments by Crean

Stats Breakdown
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Georgetown. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• #7 - Rating for the Hoyas effective Field Goal (eFG%) offense
• Georgetown is number seven amongst Division 1 programs for their effective Field Goal Percentage
• This is due to hitting a high percentage (#5) overall of two-point field goals - almost 56%
  
• #1 - top rating for effective Field Goal Defense
• That's right. Georgetown is the number one team in the country at effective Field Goal defense - limiting opponents to 41.7%
• Inside the arc, opponents get 40.1% field goal percentage, which is #3 in the country
  
• Georgetown is also good at defending on the three point line (29.8%), which is #10 in the country
• 320 - The national rank for Georgetown's pace
• The Hoyas only average 62 possessions / game, which is one of the slowest paces in the country
  
• Georgetown is a classic example of the value for tempo free (possession-based) stats
  
• 13.7% - Block rate for Georgetown
  
• This is good enough to be Top 10% in the country (#27 overall), or a block about once every seven shots
  
• 20.2% - Turnover Rating that Georgetown averages on offense
  
• TO Rate plays a large role in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Georgetown
• Signs of hope! Marquette wins the turnover battle consistently! and does a lot better when our opponents are worse than average (20%)
  
• Georgetown only forces a 19.2% Turnover Rate for Defense, so expect Marquette to protect the ball fairly well
  

Basically, Georgetown is exceptional at two things... making and preventing two-point baskets. Even more troubling, there are a lot of the similarities between the areas of expertise for UConn, Louisville, and Georgetown. All three teams do well at effective Field Goal defense, two-point field goal defense, and blocking shots. This is a real concern for Marquette, and we expect that everyone should just prepare themselves to watch our half-court offense look very ugly.

However, there are some definite opportunities. Marquette has been outstanding at forcing turnovers lately, and our ball-pressure could really challenge Georgetown's guards. If we're able to rattle the Hoyas into more turnovers than they want and make this into a transition game, then the Bradley Center crowd will start rocking.

Bonus Stats Coverage

In addition, Georgetown has had some rough patches lately that suggest potential weakness. Certainly, the fact that they were beaten soundly by Louisville, and needed a controversial call in order to defeat Villanova, indicates to the casual observer that Georgetown may not be playing particularly well.

It is certainly true that Georgetown has not been playing as well recently as they represent for the entire season. Don't get too confident, however. The Hoyas appear to be getting back on track both offensively and defensively with trends that are headed in the desired directions (at least for Georgetown).

The good news is that Marquette has been playing great basketball as of late.

Marquette is streaking, and unlike the Hoyas, we are playing better right now that we have been for the entire season. Note that Marquette's efficiency for the year is completely comparable to Georgetown's. In front of a rabid home crowd and a national audience, it could be a very enjoyable Saturday afternoon.

*post is a joint contribution from NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Rutgers Numbers Recap

Just a quick recap of the numbers for Rutgers, as there is only a short turnaround for tomorrow's big matchup with Villanova. We'll keep it at a team level this evening... no individual recaps tonight. (Although it should be no surprise that McNeal was the statistical stud of the game for the third game in the row)

Four Factors Review


Yup - when you win by 30 you tend to dominate all aspects of the game. Just as the St. John's Free Throw Rate of 93% was garbage, I have to say that the FTR for Rutgers is also garbage. At least the referees were somewhat consistent in this one, because it's not like Marquette shot a whole lot of free throws either. Marquette's defense was in full effect, pushing Rutgers to 31.3% turnover rate... or a turnover one out of every three trips down the court.

Continuing to Trend in the Right Directions

The team continues to trend in the right direction. Now, certainly the stellar offensive and defensive performances against Rutgers helped boost these trend lines, but remember that the lines above also reflect a moving 5-game average. Clearly, the next three games will be a better reflection of how the team is trending, but for now we are hitting on all cylinders.

Current Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings are 113.8 and 88.6, respectively. Those numbers suggest a team that goes 17-1 in conference... which is a nice way of looking at how well the team is playing over the last five games.

And Doing it With Consistency

As we had previously discussed, one of the big concerns for Marquette was their inconsistency. Well, MU continues to play at a high level and do it at a consistent rate. It is not as if MU is winning with high risk strategies, which should be very good news for MU fans.

But it's not all Seashells and Balloons


Unfortunately, there is one negative trend appearing for Marquette. There was a long stretch where Marquette's Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) was improving and our opponents' OR% was declining. For right now, those trends are both heading in the wrong direction. We'll continue to monitor and see how things end up. It's hard to grab a lot of offensive rebounds when you shoot 56% from the floor.

Check back tomorrow morning for the Cracked Sidewalks preview of the Villanova game.

Turnovers and Marquette

DISCLAIMER: WARNING - STATS POST
(The following post digs further into some Basketball Stats. You've been warned)

As observant readers have surely noticed in the the numbers recaps, there is one area where Marquette almost always comes out a winner. Even in games where we lose, Marquette wins the Turnover Rate (TO Rate) battle. Turnover Rate, of course, is the number of turnovers / possessions. An average TO Rate is 20%, or a turnover every one in five possessions. The sole exceptions in conference play have been a push against Cincinnati and a loss in the first Seton Hall game, which was still close. Regardless, MU has come out on top in twelve of fourteen contests during the Big East.

Ken Pomeroy of Basketball Prospectus has just released an outstanding article that talks about Tennessee. We highly recommend looking at that article before continuing with the rest of this post, but if you're just interested in the highlights, here they are:

• Tennessee's defense is highly dependent on forcing turnovers
• They're one at the best teams in the country at this thanks to their press
• However, turnovers are more under the control of the opponent's offense than they are the result of TN's defense (this is the key point)
• In conference play, opponents aren't turning the ball over as much
• When opponents manage to keep the turnover rate below 20% (average), then Tennessee's defense really suffers
• Therefore, when Tennessee faces higher quality opponents that are able to protect the ball, then Bruce Pearl's squad is in trouble

A lot of this is somewhat intuitive. After all, a press is a Risky Strategy, and subject to volatility. However, since Marquette manages to win the turnover battle frequently, and uses their "defense to jumpstart offense", is our squad also as susceptible as Tennessee?

Marquette is good at both aspects of turnovers

Marquette is a team that is reluctant to turn the ball over. While we are certainly nowhere near a team like Texas, who is #1 in the country at protecting the ball, we turn the ball over 2.7% less than our opponents usually force. In other words, an opponent that usually forces 20% turnovers (1 in 5 possessions), will only force 17.3% TO Rate against Marquette. These numbers are consistent for the entire season as well as just conference play.

In addition, we are a good team at forcing our opponent into turnovers. On average, we force our opponents into 4% higher turnover rate then their average. In other words, an opponent that usually commits 20% TO Rate will end up with a turnover rate of 24% against Marquette. Our difference here is also consistent for the entire season as well as conference play. Our opponent's turnover rate is correlated with our defensive efficiency, which is just a fancy way of saying that more turnovers = better defense. This sounds intuitive, but not all teams have a correlation with TO Rate (like Notre Dame - scroll down).

What happens if an opponent manages to protect the ball against Marquette?

Above are the five conference opponents that have done an above average job of protecting the ball against Marquette. Yes, Marquette lost four of those games! In the five games listed above, our opponents are averaging 1.14 points / possession. During conference play, when our team forces an opponent into above average turnovers (>20%), our opponents are averaging 0.91 points / possession.

In conclusion, the bad news is that when Marquette doesn't force turnovers, our defense does suffer just like TN. However, unlike Tennessee, our defense is not as risky as a press and our turnover defense has been consistent from non-conference to conference play. Marquette still does a decent job defending on at the three point line (#23 in the country) and from inside the arc (#61) in the country. This is a different view than TN, who ranks 280th in the nation at 2-point defense.

The ultimate concern for Marquette would obviously be matching up with an NCAA opponent that protects the ball very well. We would still be at risk like Tennessee (let's hope we don't draw Texas), but not as vulnerable as Tennessee.

Starting tomorrow, Rutgers only protects the ball at a rate of 21.2% (below average). More on this later in our Rutgers preview.

St. John's Numbers Recap

Due to the Steve Cottingham announcement and subsequent Cracked Sidewalks commentary, we're slightly delayed in producing the Numbers Recap for St. Johns.

Four Factors Review


In looking at the Four Factors, we actually found it somewhat surprising that St. John's ended up with a higher effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) than Marquette. We're sure that it didn't help MU to finish with only one FG over the last ten minutes. Marquette, as they do almost every single game, won the battle of turnover rates. Sloppy play managed to force Marquette into a higher percentage than average (18.3%), but we were still below an average rate of 20%. In addition, the strong recent play on the offensive boards continued. This was one of Marquette's non-conference strengths, but we faltered during early conference play. However, MU has won this factor in five of our last six games, and our numbers continue to improve.

Finally, for St. John's to get a Free Throw Rate (FTR) of 93% is utter garbage. Marquette is one of the worst teams in the country at allowing opponents to get to the line (ranking of 285), but that percentage is only at 42.6%. 93% is a number that is nearly twice the average rate of one of the lowest in the country, and it's not like Marquette was fouling excessively at the end in order to catch up. Marquette's offensive FTR was also almost double our average figure of 26.2%. Maybe the refs should have swallowed those whistles a bit and "let them play".

Individual Player Review


We're going to take a look at the Individual Player Review by addressing some recent comments in Rosiak's Blog. We've kind of been waiting for an opportunity to demonstrate that traditional stats may fall short, and his blog recap of St. John's is a nice chance.

Credit where it's due - Rosiak does a nice job giving credit to Mbakwe (1.4 net points - starting his streak of never again having a negative net contribution), McNeal (7.8 net points - mostly on the defensive end), and James (5.4 net points - higher than average Offensive Rating). We'll look at James and McNeal a bit more below.

When traditional stats are misleading - However, Rosiak also says "-- Wesley Matthews attempted just four shots. He hasn't gotten into double figures since Jan. 26 against DePaul." While this is technically true, it's also somewhat misleading. Matthews was a net positive contributor to the game with the highest Offensive Rating on the team. Since the DePaul game, despite being held below double figures, Matthews has had a net-positive contribution in every game except one. This means that Wesley is finding lots of other ways to make a positive impact on the game without scoring.

In addition, Rosiak gives credit to Cubillan and Fitzgerald, even stating that "Dan Fitzgerald was highly productive in 19 minutes, finishing with five points, one rebound, one steal and one charge taken." Granted... charges taken don't show up in the box score, but his overall impact on the game (-0.4) was essentially zero and not highly productive. Furthermore, Cubillan had the worst net contribution of the team (-1.7).

In general, we are big fans of Rosiak and we think he does a great job, but several of his comments were a clear indication of how traditional stats can be misleading.

A Two For One?


After we posted our Review of the Top Four, several blog comments referred to how similar the net contribution paths looked for James and McNeal. Indeed, tracking from Providence to Cincy shows an almost identical trendline. In addition, now that James appears to be back on track, the net contributions from McNeal have started to pick up again. There's nothing definitive that proves the two are explicitly correlated, but the joint trends certainly do suggest that McNeal's production is boosted when James plays better.

This is just one more reason for optimism heading down the stretch... now that James is healthy, we appear to be getting more from Jerel again too.

MU/SJU Preview @ MSG

#24 Marquette takes on St. John's Redmen at Madison Square Guarden on Wednesday night, 6pm on ESPN2. Marquette will try to extend its 2 game winning streak against the Johnnies, who are 4-9 in Big East Play.

SJU is one game out of the 12th spot in the Big East Tournament and has lost 7 of their last 10. SJU has played RPI Top 50 teams eight times and have lost each and every time.

SJU's Anthony Mason, Jr. returns for his 2nd game after a long stretch on IR with an ankle issue.

I'm not going to mince words: Marquette should win this game handily. MU has an edge on everything. Points/game, FG%, FT%, Defense, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench quality. But it is a road game, which has given MU the willies.

On top of that, SJU will probably be "looking past" #24 Marquette and gearing up to play @ #5 Duke on Saturday, 2/23. Now that's a gutsy OOC schedule. Can you imagine, 18 Big East games, with Duke in the middle?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about St. John's. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 91% - Pomeroy predicts a 91% chance of Marquette victory
• Remember that these predictions are more accurate (for some reason) on home games
  
• We were also 60-70% favorites to defeat Louisville and UConn
• 51 - SJU's rank for Defensive Efficiency
• This is the highest ranking for St. John's at any of the Pomeroy metrics
• However, before getting too cocky, St. John's is also improving at their defense over the last few games
• 228 - St. John's rank for pace
• SJU is another one of those teams that plays at an extremely slow pace, averaging 65.7 possessions / game
• The Johnnies haven't been above 63 possessions in a game in their last six games
• Slowing the pace down has helped St. John's go 3-3
  
• 22.3% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on offense
• 20% is considered average, so this turnover rate is fairly poor at a ranking of 231 out of 341 Division 1 schools
• In the games that SJU wins, they keep their TO Rate under 20%
  
• Marquette is forcing opponents into a TO Rate of 23%, and almost every opponent we face ends up with more turnovers than their average
• 21.9% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on defense
• In other words, SJU also forces their opponents into a lot of turnovers
• Unfortunately for the Johnnies, Marquette is #28 in the country at protecting the ball
  
• We haven't had a worse than average (20%) game at protecting the ball since January 8th... that's ten games!
  

Thanks to a slow pace and an improving defense, St. John's has managed to go 3-3 in their last six games. However, two of the most statistically significant factors for SJU are their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers. In each of these areas, Marquette has a definite advantage. Expect to see our team disrupt the Johnnies' offense and push a faster pace that SJU would like.

Links:

• StatSheet MU vs. SJU
• TheEastCoastBias Blog Preview of SJU vs. MU
• MU Game Notes
• SJU Game Notes
• SJU Media Guide
• NY Post Preview "Ready for Rumble"
• Palladium-Item on DJ
• Rosiak on Mbakwe

And since we're on Mbakwe .. here's a little interview for you:

Things to Consider Down the Stretch

Want a reason to believe that this Marquette team could be different than the last two years? According to Pomeroy, Marquette has the #15 offense and the #11 defense in the country. This is in spite of our team troubles in the early part of conference play. Here's a quick view at the 2007 and 2006 Pomeroy statistics.


Interestingly enough, our performance in the past two NCAA tournament games has been an