Marquette kept its moral victory streak alive last night with a 75-70 loss on the road to the 12th-ranked Villanova Wildcats.
After falling behind by nine points at halftime and as many as 14 in the second half, the Warriors rallied to close the gap late. Regardless, show me a moral victory and I'll show you a losing team.
When all was said and done, Marquette was overwhelmed by Villanova's size, patience on offense, and its own poor defense which led to a remarkable free throw rate advantage for the Wildcats. Villanova connected on 29 of 33 free throws for the game while MU sank 13-14. Along the way Marquette struggled with foul trouble, including Jae Crowder's critical fifth foul with 2:32 remaining and the Warriors trailing by six.
The real story, as it always is for this team, was Marquette's porous defense. After a solid defensive performance in the first half where MU limited Wildcats to an eFG of just 43.3%, for the most part the Warriors' defensive effectiveness didn't make it out of the locker room after the break.
In the second half Marquette allowed an astonishing 1.23 points per possession (ppp) and an eFG% of 56%. Factor in Villanova's second half free throw rate (FTR) of 1.33 and it's easy to see why MU could not get closer than three points in the game's final 1o minutes. FTR is the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.
Still up for debate was a stretch in the second half where Buzz shook things up and went to a full court press. Between the 10 minute mark and 4:58 mark in the second half, this defensive scheme forced four Villanova turnovers, 25% of the Wildcats' turnover total for the game. Perhaps more importantly the pressure led to easier buckets for MU. Marquette whittled the Villanova lead from 14 points down to just three with five minutes to play, but was unable to overcome the deficit as the Wildcats lived at the line in the game's final minutes.
While the second half defensive adjustment showed promise during this five-minute spurt, MU's inability to string together a series of stops remains a derailment factor for this team. Ultimately the press was modestly encouraging but with MU's foul issues last night the benefits were somewhat mitigated to say the least. The overall defensive performance was still lacking.
Links Links Links
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Defenseless Marquette falls at Villanova
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Warriors seek signature road win
If there is one thing teams can count on in the Big East, it's the opportunity to claim quality wins that will matter on Selection Sunday.
Of course, while opportunity knocks regularly, so does disappointment in the nation's strongest basketball conference. Nevertheless, the Warriors will storm the court tonight looking for a marquee road win at Villanova in a match-up of the Big East's two highest scoring teams.
The Warriors (14-8) are riding the emotional high of a much-needed victory over the Syracuse Orange, pushing their record to a respectable 5-4 through the first half of Big East play. The Wildcats (17-3, 5-3) enter tonight's game hungry for a win. Villanova has lost two in a row and three of their last four. In those three losses, the Wildcats failed to reach the 70-point mark; an uncharacteristic swoon for such a high-powered team. Last time out, Georgetown escaped with a 69-66 win over Villanova in Philadelphia.
Villanova is once again one of the more balanced teams in the league. They have four players averaging double-figures, led by seniors Corey Fisher (16ppg) and designated marksman Corey Stokes (15 ppg). Unlike past Wildcat teams, this year's team has productive baseline players in Mouphtau Yarou (8 ppg, 7 rpg) and Antonio Pena (10ppg, 7 rpg). In today's blog from Rosiak Buzz notes that the mix of talent for Jay Wright has the Wildcats playing a bit differently.
Expect a shootout tonight. Both teams have excellent offenses, though MU fans can hold out hope that Villanova's recent struggles to score are more than just an anomaly. The one area where Marquette is weakest defensively (eFG%) is the one aspect of offense where 'Nova is weakest.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a seven point Wildcat win tonight and defense is the reason. Villanova holds opponnents to an eFG% of just 44.5, which is stifling. Still, the Wildcats do not force turnovers and MU is one of the nation's best offensive teams. Ultimately tonight's battle is strength against strength. Like most games, expect Marquette's Top 10 offense to keep things close but the #81 ranked defense probably won't be enough to win it. Root for more poor shooting from Villanova (or just enough defense) and continued offensive excellence from the Warriors, and perhaps we'll see the Wildcats' 45-game winning streak at the Pavilion snapped.
Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
Links, Links, Links
- Rosiak explores the elephant in the room -- Vander Blue's disappointing freshman season to date. The article is encouraging. I remain convinced that Vander is merely playing out of position based on the current composition of the roster. Blue, who is not a shooter, is better equipped to play the point guard/alpha guard role and that opportunity will be there next season.
- Wesley Matthews has been selected to play in the annual Sophomore/Rookie Challenge at the NBA All-Star Weekend.
- CBS Sports previews tonight's game.
- MU game notes.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Road Warriors head to Villanova
With the proverbial wind at their backs, Buzz Williams' crew heads into Villanova on Saturday with revenge on their mind. The Wildcats have topped MU in heartbreaking fashion in each of the last two meetings between the BIG EAST rivals, a fact certainly not lost in the Warriors' locker room.
Tipoff is set for 1pm Marquette Standard Time at the Pavilion in Villanova, Pennsylvania. The game will be broadcast on Full Court and ESPN360.
As for the Wildcats, Jay Wright's club is deeper than ever and off to a fast start. The 6th ranked Wildcats are now 13-1 having topped MU and DePaul last week.
To get ready for the game we went back to a popular format, Know Your Opponent. Today we've invited Chris Lane from I Bleed Blue and White to share his thoughts about the Wildcats as they prepare for MU. Chris is the lead writer for I Bleed Blue and White, one of the best blogs you'll find on any BIG EAST program.
What are the Pennsylvania laws against kidnapping Scottie Reynolds and keeping him hostage during the game? How much jail time are we talking about?
Considering our police are giving the business to 7-year olds for lemonade stands, we're probably talking the death-penalty for a kidnapping. Then again, if you attempted to actually take Jesus out of his dorm by force, you'd receive a stoning of biblical proportions from the 'Nova students.
But by all means, go ahead and try.
Villanova received good news when freshman big man Mouphtaou Yarou returned to action this week. How might his return change the Wildcats' approach on Saturday?
It's really too early to tell. He's been working out solo since he was sidelined, so he's definitely not out of shape, but he's also not ready to make a big impact because of the time he lost. These games are really his first games for all intents and purposes.
One thing it does add though, is front-court depth. Antonio Pena has stepped up this year, but it's tough to be the lone guy down low (as we saw vs. you last week). Our smaller guys have tried to help, but Yarou's presence should provide that help that we need to survive what should be a brutal conference.
Antonio Pena might be the BIG EAST's most improved player....are the Wildcats becoming a more balanced team than we've seen in years past? What has been the biggest reason for Pena's emergence this year?
He studied under some pretty good tweeners in Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark. He learned about the toughness aspect of our team's approach. He's always had the body and skill, but not the mental makeup. We're finally starting to see him emerge as not only a better player, but a team leader.
I can't lie, the balance is great. As much as I loved the 4-guard lineup that was deployed in 2005, it would much better last year when you could argue the strength of our team late in the year was our frontcourt. I'd love for that trend to continue, even though we'll always be known as Guard-U.
During the Wright Era, the Wildcats typically have been an undersized bunch but so far this season his squad is one of the best rebounding teams in the BIG EAST. Is Wright recruiting and developing better baseline talent, or has the 'small ball' scheme evolved?
Taylor King had one of the better quotes I've heard, which went something like, "At Duke, defense and rebounding wasn't important. If you don't play it here, you're not gonna play. So I'm gonna do that stuff." At that's the mentality our team takes on. If you aren't busting your ass, diving on the floor, and hitting the glass hard, you are going to find yourself on the bench.
Isaiah Armwood is a great example of another guy who has bought into that. He doesn't have much of an offensive game right now, but he's active and he tries to work harder than the other 9 guys on the court. And he's been rewarded with minutes. That type of attitude is really what defines our team, and allows us to win consistently despite being out-sized much of the time.
Looking at the Wildcats year to year it is interesting to note that last year's bunch was 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency but this year you are 89th. Why have the Wildcats have taken a step back defensively this season?
No Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, and Dante Cunningham. And A LOT of new players. Six new bodies have seen action this season, and really two of them (Wayns and Cheek) have been up to speed defensively. Also, Reggie Redding, our best defender, was out for the 1st half. That really hurt as we didn't have a stopper.
I think as the year goes on and the freshman learn about playing college ball, we'll be better. But it is a little frightening when to win, you have to score 90 points (happened a few times this year). I'll take a 60-52 win every day over a 90-88 win. And I'm sure most of my BIG EAST brethren would agree with me.
Prediction time...
I'm not going to lie, I'm scared. You've shaken off the close-game bug. You are sore over our last 2 meetings, AND the whooping we laid on your at our place last year. I like Buzz as a coach, and Lazar Hayward scares the shit out of me. Plus, our student body is still on winter break. And coming off a snoozefest against DePaul, this screams trap.
But I think we edge you out 78-72 in the end.
Chris, thanks so much for your time and expertise -- we greatly appreciate it. Good luck the rest of the way (after tomorrow, of course).
Links of Note
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Marquette impersonates Shelley Levene
Marquette stole defeat from the jaws of victory once again yesterday, falling 74-72 to the Villanova Wildcats. As we've seen in each of MU's four other close losses, the Warriors fail to execute in crunch time. Whether it's inexcusable defensive breakdowns, missed free throws, or failing to execute offensively the Warriors can't close.
For now this team is playing like Shelley Levene though it takes modeling a beast like Blake to close in the BIG EAST. This team needs to close.
A. B. C.
With the loss the Warriors fell to 9-5 on the season. Already 0-2 in the BIG EAST, Marquette hosts Georgetown on January 6.
Friday, January 01, 2010
MU Takes on Villanova
After a tough loss to WVU, Marquette returns home to face off against Villanova. Just like last year, MU opens at home against Villanova. Game time is 2:30 Milwaukee time. After last year's Final Four run, Villanova was the BE Coaches choice to finish first in conference. MU is obviously rebuilding, injured, and only picked to finish twelfth, so easy road win for Villanova, right? The #8/#8 team should roll even in an away game.
Not. So. Fast.
Early in the season, Villanova hasn't exactly been killing it. Honestly, Villanova's been pretty damn pedestrian so far. According to the stats, they're not top twenty in anything except offensive efficiency (#17). Want to know which team is right above them in offensive efficiency? Yeah... the good guys (#16). In fact, according to Pomeroy's overall rankings, Marquette (#20) is rated higher than Villanova (#35). In some more craziness, Pomeroy favors us as 73% favorites (6 point victors) tomorrow. Not only that, but for the first time this season, we're busting out our prediction model and it favors Marquette as a 90% favorite to win (14 point victor).
How does Marquette take home the victory?
- Make shots. MU has been #27 in the country at effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%)
- Keep Nova from making shots. Believe it or not, but Villanova hasn't been all that good at eFG% (#86 in the country)
- Offensive rebounding (on both sides). First, keep Villanova off the offensive glass. Second, pound the offensive boards
- Finally, force turnovers. Villanova has been okay at protecting the ball, but MU has been pretty good at forcing turnovers. MU has to win this matchup
Check out the following links for more info
- Rosiak has his preview, in which he talks about last year, the potential impact of Mouphtaou Yarou, and (yuck) free throws
- Marquette has their official preview of the game. Don't forget to check out the game notes. They also have the following video clips
DJO and Butler media availability
And now from a few of the Villanova blogs
Friday, March 13, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Marquette loses heartbreaker at the buzzer
In what would have been the largest comeback in Big East Tournament History, Marquette lost by one point to #5 seeded Villanova, 76-75 on a last second tip-in.
Marquette battled back from a 17 point deficit to take the lead with 90 seconds to play, but couldn't hold on.
Jimmy Butler had a wonderful game, with 19 points and Wes and Lazar snared a double-doubles, but that was not enough to eek out a victory.
Heartbreaking. With the loss of Dominic James .. this season is becoming the year of woulda, coulda. These past 6 games would have been dramatically different with #1 on the court.
Now the waiting begins.
AP Recap
Box Score
Rosiak
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Marquette Breaks Losing Streak - Gets Ready for Rubber Match
Yes, indeed. In their first game of the Big East Tournament today, Marquette defeated St. Johns by the score of 74-45. Honestly, the game wasn't even that close. The final five on the floor for the last three minutes? Frozena, Otule, Fulce, Butler, and Cubillan... that's how far ahead Marquette was. After two tough weeks, it felt good to see a winning product on the floor.
Here are some recaps, and then let's move on to the next game:
- GoMarquette.com has the AP recap, as well as photo gallery
- Rosiak has his recap of the game
- Right now, the ESPN recap is also from the AP, but they also have some video highlights
Game time will be about 1:20 Milwaukee time on ESPN
At this point, you probably know all the names on Villanova's team. Feel free to refresh yourselves with their strengths and weaknesses from our last preview, or just check out their Pomeroy Scouting Report. (hint - Villanova is still good at just about everything). Oh yeah, they also have the BE Coach of the Year, and the league's Most Improved Player in Cunningham (cough).
Right now, we see a most likely scenario of only a 30% chance of victory and six point loss. What are the specific stats recommendations?
- Prevent them from making shots (eFG% at 50% or less) - 50% is just under their average... but last game against us they hit an eFG% of 69%. We could just call this one "don't let them shoot 74% in the second half"
- Force turnovers (Villanova TO% at 28% or higher) - This is highly unlikely, but every turnover that Villanova commits helps. Reggie Redding is actually sloppy with the ball (23%), and both Corey Fisher (19%) and Scottie Reynolds (19.2%) are about average. Good luck trying to turn over Cunningham (15.4%) or Corey Stokes (13.7%).
- Protect the ball (TO% at 14% or lower) - This one isn't that crazy. For the season, MU was #9 in the country at taking care of the ball. Even without James, Marquette didn't have a turnover rate higher than 18% during the four game losing streak. Of course, today was a sloppy day, and I'm looking at you Jerel McNeal.
- Crash the boards (OR% of 45% or higher) - This is about 17 offensive rebounds, or five more than average. It's also not that crazy, because Marquette was above that rate in their last two games.
Media Updates
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Breaking Down the Worst Defensive Result of the Year
Yeesh.
Fresh off of the worst offensive output of the year, Marquette ended up with their worst defensive effort of the year. In comparison to the season average (1.14 points per possession), Marquette's offense actually wasn't all that off.
Yes, Villanova hit an effective field goal percentage of 69%, which was the best an opponent has shot against MU this season. Furthermore, according to my calculations, it was in the top 5% of all expected results. (I had a 90th percentile upper bound of 64%). Villanova obviously shot lights out, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Going back to the predictions from before the game sheds more insight.
Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop Villanova from making shots (eFG% of 47% or less). This translates to 22 FGM (including six threes), or three less than their average
- Result – Villanova eFG% was 69%. Advantage Villanova. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus four to minus twenty-two
- Result – Marquette eFG%% was 60.5%. Advantage Marquette. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus twenty-two to minus ten.
- Result – Villanova turnover rate was 14.2%. Advantage Villanova. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus ten to minus sixteen
- Result – ‘Nova OR% was 28.1%. Advantage Villanova. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus sixteen to minus fifteen (Note – model prediction was ‘Nova OR% of 31%, so the recommendation was based of generating a victory)
- Result – MU TO% was 15.8%. Advantage Villanova. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus fifteen to minus thirteen. (Note – model prediction was MU TO% of 18.5%)
- Result – MU OR% was 17.6%. Advantage Villanova. Changed margin of victory prediction from minus thirteen to minus sixteen.
So was it MU's declining defense or just a hot Villanova team? The honest answer is that it's probably a bit of both. Back on 1/21, when Villanova was 2-3 and coming off a loss to UConn, they had a moving average efficiency margin of only 3.0. (I know that's a mouthful, but it's a 5 game average of the difference between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency) That's barely a 0.500 team. However, their efficiency margin has gradually grown and is now all the way up to 19.3. Put another way, Villanova is playing at the level of a team that should go 16-2 in conference. They are definitely hot.
On the other hand, Marquette is heading in the opposite direction. We can see that both the offense and the defense are trending... poorly. The team may have peaked early, with a peak right around the Providence/DPU#1 games, where Marquette had a moving efficiency average of 24.7. However, the team has been declining down to their present efficiency margin average of 5.2. Again put another way, Marquette is playing 0.634 ball (or like a team that should win 11-12 games in conference). Luckily they've already won nine.
As for whether or not this is a correctable situation or one that cannot fundamentally be changed, I'll remain an optimist. Regardless, it'll be good for the team to be back home. Hopefully they'll manage to get themselves on track this weekend before that brutal final stretch.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Three silver linings on a miserable night
OK, probably no one wants to write tonight, and maybe noone even wants to read after losing by 18. However, even in defeat, what a trio of seniors:
1) Jerel McNeal breaks scoring record,
2) Dominic James gets 9 assists to only 2 turnovers to make it 50 and 12 in last ten games, and
3) Wes Matthews ties Hansbrough with 150 free throws made
And with all that, the best MU player on the court was Lazar .
Obviously the huge news tonight is Jerel McNeal putting in his 1,776th point to break the 40-year-old scoring record, overtaking the great George Thompson's 1,773 compiled through 1969. McNeal is trying to become the first Marquette hoops player since Dwyane Wade (21.5 ppg in 2003) to top 20 points per game, and since he has scored more than 20 points in every game for almost two months, he should get there. Coming into tonight MUs offense was the 6th ranked offense in the country with 115.2 points per 100 trips down the court, behind only UNC, Oklahoma, UCLA, and Pitt - all ranked in the Top 6 - and Utah State, which plays much lighter competition.
While Marquette is in a two-game rut, we won't know if we are witnessing a team that peaked early OR, if we are just going through the rut that almost every team (remember the three-game losing streak at home in 1977) goes through.
While our defense certainly has looked soft for stretches in most games and there were easy shots around the basket tonight, Villanova also continued what they started against Syracuse by hitting from everywhere on the court.
In addition to McNeal, who most are agreeing would be named MVP of the brutal 16-team Big East right now, MU is dominating in two of the other four ways you win games:
FIRST, GETTING TO THE LINE AND MAKING FREETHROWS. No "BCS" player this year has made more freethrows this year than Wesley Matthews, who with a 4 of 6 tonight is now at 150 of 181 from the line, catching UNC national player-of-the-year Tyler Hansbrough (150-178). All together, Marquette hits 47.3 free throws for every 100 field goals they attempt, meaning the only two BCS teams that get to the line better are the top two teams in the country, UConn and Oklahoma. Tonight we made only 15 while taking 57 field goals - I'd argue we didn't get a bunch of calls we should have on drives, but I'm biased.
SECOND, AVOIDING TURNOVERS. Point Guard Dominic James has dished out 50 assists while turning the ball over only 12 times in the last 10 games. A great point guard may have twice the assists as turnovers, but James' nine assists to only two turnovers tonight gives him an amazing 4.2-to-1 since the Big East opener. Can you imagine what his ratio would be if he had someone like Cunningham underneath to consistently catch his passes and lay them in? Also, a nice in control 6 of 11 shooting. Outside of the four missed free throws, can't ask for much more from your point guard.
Marquette is one of the better teams in the other two factors that determine games, shooting percentage and offensive rebounds, despite averaging only 6-foot-3 1/2, but it is MUs ability to drive past opponents to get to the line and not turn the ball over that has them 20-4 and has them in the top 4 in the 16-team Big East.
When you consider Jerel's MVP season, Dominic's assists to turnovers, and Wes' ability to get to the line, it's no wonder several commentators, including Bobby Knight and Dick Vitale, have called Marquette's three guards the best trio of guards in the country.
Maybe in the end the defense won't be tough enough, and MU will prove too small and have too few players to make the big run, but I'm buying low right now and think in the end Marquette will solve the issues of the past two games and take over. Just like Al did in 1977. And tonight we shot exceptionally well with a 58% effective field goal percentage. The question is how much of Nova's ungodly 65% was bad defense and how much was them just being unconscious for the 2nd game. We can't grab only 4 offensive rebounds, but other than than, we did enough good things that I think we just caught an incredibly hot team that would have rolled anyone tonight.
Go Marquette!
Congrats to Jerel McNeal
Jerel McNeal just passed George Thompson and now owns Marquette's All Time Scoring Record.
Congrats!
In a (sadly) related development, Villanova crushed Marquette tonight 102-84. With the loss MU falls to 20-4 on the season and 9-2 in the BIG EAST.
Media updates:
Marquette versus Villanova - Round Two
When he arrived on campus as awkward shooting freshman with a reputation as a rugged defender, nobody expected Jerel McNeal to stamp his name in the Marquette record books as a scorer. Tonight at Villanova, the multi-talented McNeal could do just that. The 6'3" senior guard needs 21 points to break George Thompson's 40-year old scoring record for the blue and gold.
McNeal comes into tonight's game on a tear. A leading candidate for BIG EAST Player of the Year, McNeal has delivered seven consecutive games of at least 20 points or more and is averaging 20 points per game in conference action. McNeal is second in the BIG EAST in three-point field goal shooting, nailing 47% from deep making him -- and by extension his teammates -- much tougher to defend.
Simply put, Jerel McNeal has been the key to Marquette's 9-1 record in BIG EAST play and will factor heavily into the Golden Eagles' efforts to jump back into the win column after a disappointing loss at USF. MU topped the Wildcats 79-72 in the conference opener for both teams on New Year's Day. Marquette topped the 'Cats last year on the road -- but remember, that game was in Philly and this time MU has to venture into the Pavilion on campus. Villanova has won 25 in a row at the Pavilion.
While MU (20-3, 9-1) hit a speed bump last week, Villanova (19-4, 7-3) is positively rolling. Jay Wright's crew has won six of seven, including home wins over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Last time out, the Wildcats buried Syracuse 102-85 behind Dante Cunningham's 31 points and nine rebounds.
Tonight's game will be televised on ESPN2 at 6:30pm CT.
Opponent Strengths and Weaknesses
As always, much of this information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report.
Strengths
1. Defensive field goal percentage – Villanova is #30 in the country at defensive eFG% (44.9% allowed). Opponents make only 42.4% of 2-point baskets (#22) and only 32.4% of 3-point baskets (#82). The 'Cats are #13 in the country overall at defensive points per possession (0.88 ppp allowed)
2. Getting to the line – Villanova is #30 in the country at Free throw rate (FTA / FGA of 43.8%)
3. Protecting the ball – Villanova is #69 in the country at turnover percentage (18.8%)
Weaknesses
1. Defensive FTR - Villanova is #220 at letting their opponents take free throws
2. Not much else – They’re top 100 in every category except defensive turnover rate (#102)
Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop Villanova from making shots (eFG% of 47% or less). This translates to 22 FGM (including six threes), or three less than their average
2. Make shots (MU eFG% of 53% or higher)
3. Force turnovers (TO Rate of 27% or higher for Villanova), which would be about five more turnovers than their average
4. Prevent offensive rebounds (Villanova OR% of 22% or less), or keep them to about four less OR's than their average
5. Protect the ball (MU turnover rate of 13% or less), or about three turnovers less than average
6. Get offensive rebounds around the season average (MU OR% of 33% or more), or right around MU's season average
Bottom Line
Pomeroy gives us a 29% chance of winning, and unfortunately I am only slightly more optimistic (33%). In an average paced game (68 possessions), Marquette is expected to lose the game by four points. The model predicts that MU will have an advantage on turnover rate and that’s it. OR% is predicted to be a significant advantage for Villanova, with only slight advantages on Free Throw Rate and effective field goal percentage. Both offense and defense for Marquette are predicted to be worse than average. MU will probably have to combine multiple recommendations in order to win.
Media Updates
- I Bleed Blue and White blogs the game from a VU perspective....good stuff, fellas
- Villanova By The Numbers previews the game -- "warriors v. wildcats" Nice!
- Villanova News blogs their preview for tonight's top 25 tilt
- VillanovaHoops is on it as well
- There's also an article from Villanova Viewpoint
- And one from Let's Go Nova, who is also hosting a live blog this evening.
- CBS Sportsline's video preview of the game
- Rosiak's blog preview
- Rosiak previews the game, built around Jerel's pursuit of the scoring record
- ESPN has a great article about Lazar Hayward. Lots of good stuff in this article
Thursday, January 01, 2009
MU Grabs First BE Win over Villanova - 79-72
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Ready or not, MU opens BIG EAST play
Marquette opens BIG EAST play on New Year's Day when they host the 13th ranked Villanova Wildcats (12-1). The 25th-ranked Golden Eagles begin conference play with a record of 11-2 and loads of questions about bench strength and a weak defense.
Through the season's first stanza, Wesley Matthews set the pace for Marquette. Matthews' explosive senior season has drawn comparisons to Tony Smith's final campaign in blue and gold, though Matthews' outstanding play might be more laudable given the talented veterans surrounding him. Matthews is fifth in the BIG EAST in scoring at more than 19 points per game and is second in the nation in both free throws attempted and made. The Marquette senior i
s shooting a career-best 50% from the field and 84% from the line.
With Matthews leading the way, Buzz Williams can count on four consistent contributors every night. Lazar Hayward (17 points, 9 boards), Jerel McNeal (17 points, 5 boards) and Dominic James (11 points, five assists) form one of the BIG EAST's best four-man gangs. Unfortunately for MU, the production usually ends with the Fantastic Four as nobody else on the roster averages more than four points per outing.
Are the Fantastic Four enough to carry MU to an upper division finish in the BIG EAST? As Rob pointed out yesterday, the answer may be a resounding 'No.'
The Golden Eagles lack of depth heading into conference play might be the single biggest factor in determining whether or not Buzz Williams' first vintage matures into a March surprise. In particular, lack of depth on the baseline is certainly contributing to Marquette's embarrassing team defense this season -- among BIG EAST teams, only Seton Hall and Providence offer a more porous defense than the Golden Eagles so far this season.
Despite proclamations by coach Buzz Williams that injured newcomers Joseph Fulce and Chris Otule have been 'pitiful' in their returns, their presence and talent provide hope for a team that has become overly reliant on role players forced into prolonged stints on the floor. Still, despite the optimism of a healthy roster, integrating two newcomers who have yet to practice extensively into a mature rotation will be no small feat.
Nevertheless, the BIG EAST will shed no tears for Marquette, and the Villanova Wildcats shape up as a tremendous challenge for the Golden Eagles.
The Wildcats head into Milwaukee after blowing out Temple earlier in the week, 62-45. The Wildcats are paced by 6'8" senior Dante Cunningham who leads the team in both scoring and rebounding (17 and 7). Talented guard Scottie Reynolds kicks in 14 points a game, and is knocking down 37% of his three-point attempts. Sophomore guard Corey Stokes has elevated his play this season, averaging better than eleven points per game --nearly double his freshman average. In addition, Stokes is hitting 45% from deep.
As with most teams in the BIG EAST, Villanova has played a modest schedule to date falling at Texas last month while beating up on their local neighbors St. Joseph's, Temple, Pennsylvania and LaSalle.
Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Just in case, here's a look back at the pre-season predictions from the Cracked Sidewalks crew.
Media Updates
Marquette official game notes
Rosiak's pre-game blog
Villanova Bloggers are out in force
VUHoops.com checks in with a preview
I Bleed Blue and White previews the game
Let's Go Nova previews the tilt
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Big East Preview - Part One
I'm going to run this down from worst to first. My approach to the analysis is to look at five various factors to see how they might impact each of the teams in the Big East. The factors under consideration were:
- A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
- Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
- Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
- Regression of a team towards 0.500
- Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
Today's preview focuses on the bottom eight teams in conference.
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The Bottom of the Barrel
These three teams show that it's hard to dig yourself out
#16 - DePaul
- 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, DePaul (6-12), should have finished with a record of 5.4 - 12.6. Yay?
- Consistency - Unfortunately for DePaul, they were one of the most consistent teams in the league. Being consistently bad is less than desireable. Red Flag
- Quality of Returning Starters - DePaul returns one of the fewest number of junior and senior leadership. Red Flag
- Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, DePaul is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
- Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
#15 - St. John's
- 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, St John's (5-13), should have finished with a record of 4.6 - 13.4
- Consistency - No impact. St. John's was about league average
- Quality of Returning Starters - St. John's returns the fewest number of junior and senior leadership in the Big East, highlighted by the transfer of the productive Larry Wright. Red Flag
- Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, St John's is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
- Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
#14 - South Florida
- 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, USF (3-15), should have finished with a record of 4.9 - 13.1. Look for some correction this year. Bonus
- Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
- Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average, although South Florida does lose massive big man Kentrell Gransberry
- Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, USF is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
- Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list, but coach Stan Health will welcome seven (7!) new players to the program this fall. Let's see what they can do.
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The dangerous road game
These three teams will probably be towards the bottom of the league, but that doesn't mean they won't be tough to beat on any given night.
#13 - Seton Hall
- 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Seton Hall (7-11), should have finished with a record of 6.3 - 11.7 last year.
- Consistency - Limited impact. Seton Hall was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
- Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average just on the numbers, although the Pirates also lost senior leader Brian Laing and notable Dominic James fouling machine Jamar Nutter. Note that Seton Hall also expects to return steals leader Paul Gause, who was injured for much of the year.
- Expected Regression - Seton Hall can expect some modest regression towards 0.500, but I don't think it's significant
- Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list though the Pirates will welcome perhaps the best transfer player into the Big East this year in 6'6" Robert Mitchell. Mitchell played one year at Duquesne and was one of the nation's best freshmen, averaging better than 16 points and 5 boards per game.
#12 - Cincinnati
- 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Cincy (8-10), should have finished with a record of 7.2 - 10.8
- Consistency - Cincy was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. That means that they probably won more games than they should have last year. Red flag
- Quality of Returning Starters - On top of being inconsistent last year, Cincinnati also returns one of the fewest amount of junior and senior minutes this year. Not a good combo. Red flag
- Expected Regression - No real impact
- Incoming Freshmen - The Bearcats welcome two players on the RSCI Top 100 list. 6'8" PF Yancy Gates (#41) and 6' G Cashmere Wright (#94) join their program this year. Bonus
#11 - Rutgers
- 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Rutgers (3-15), should have finished with a record of 3.5 - 14.5
- Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly more inconsistent than the league average last year
- Quality of Returning Starters - No impact. Rutgers is about league average
- Expected Regression - Based simply on being one of the worst teams in conference last year, Rutgers is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
- Incoming Freshmen - Fred Hill is bringing in a spate of talented players to the Rutgers team. This year they'll add 6'1 sharpshooter Mike Rosario (#44), 6'9" big man Greg Echinique, and 6'9" Christian Morris. Bonus
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Fighting for that Tournament Berth
These two teams will be somewhere around 0.500 and they'll probably be in contention for the eight or nine bids the Big East is expected to receive in the NCAA Tournament this year.
#10 - Providence
- 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Providence (6-12), should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9 last year. This certainly contributed to the hiring of a new coach this offseason. Bonus
- Consistency - Providence was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. While it might means that they probably won more games than they should have last year, I believe their underperformance indicates otherwise. I have to flag it but it's worth watching. Red flag (possible bonus)
- Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact, though a return to health for point guard Sharaud Curry will make Keno Davis' transition to the Big East much smoother. Curry missed nearly all of last season with a stress fracture in his right foot. Providence is slightly above league average, even with the transfer of productive point guard Dwain Williams.
- Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on where they finished last year, Providence should expect a solid boost just by virtue of a regression towards 0.500. Bonus
- Incoming Freshmen - No impact
#9 - Villanova
- 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Villanova (9-9), should have finished with a record of 8.3 - 9.7
- Consistency - No impact. Villanova was right at league average
- Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact. Villanova is slightly above average for returning junior and senior minutes.
- Expected Regression - No impact
- Incoming Freshmen - No impact
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Speaking of the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), we'll cover the remainder tomorrow.
Contributions from NYWarrior. Thanks
*edit - Messed up the Villanova results from last year
Monday, August 04, 2008
News and Notes, and a start to the Big East Preview
In case you didn't get a chance to see it, ESPN.com has a Shootaround focusing on the Big East. There is a team capsule for every team in the league and a feature article about the new, revised BET that now includes every team in the league. There are also vignettes about Keno Davis (Providence), AJ Price, the difficulty of exiting the BE basement, Shrek, and the likelihood of getting nine teams into the NCAA tournament. Also, Jay Bilas picks Marquette to finish fifth.
A fellow stathead at Villanova by the Numbers has an entry about Returning Minutes Experience. Instead of breaking down the total returning minutes, greyCat looks at the quality of experience. It's an interesting take on the quality of returning players, and it's not just because he ranks Marquette #1.
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Given all that, I wanted to take my own look at a Big East Preview. We will consider the following areas based only on Big East statistics. Today will just be a quick introduction to the way I'm approaching the analysis. It's obviously not infallible. If it were, then where would be the fun of a preview? Onto the stats being considered:
#1 - A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
Based on a team's Offensive and Defensive efficiency during conference, they should end up with a projected win-loss record. Often, the projection will end up not as a nice even integer, leaving the final results as a record of coaching ability (or lack thereof) and/or luck. Sometimes, a team will end up outside the standard deviation as a significant underperformer or overperformer. In particular, these are teams we will watch closely because we expect them to return closer to form.
Example - based on last year's stats, Notre Dame should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3 (0.648) in conference. Instead, they ended up with a record of 14-4 (0.778). That gets a red flag.
#2 - Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
Consistency is both good and bad. If you're a bad team, it's not very acceptable to be consistently bad. On the other hand, if you're a good team, it's great to be consistent. I'm really looking more at inconsistency than anything. The best way of looking at consistency is that inconsistent good teams lose more than they should and inconsistent bad teams win more than they should. Teams that return a large number of players should become more consistent.
Example - Marquette was the most inconsistent team in the Big East last year. They also finished under their projected win total. This year they are extremely experienced and may end up more consistent.
#3 - Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
As mentioned above, Villanova by the Numbers had an interesting look at the quality of returning minutes. It basically factors in the team's percentage of returning minutes while looking at if those players are also Seniors. I modified the percentages slightly to include Junior and Senior returning minutes. This is obviously not a perfect way of looking at returning minutes, but I think a team playing with mostly Seniors and Juniors will beat an equally talented team playing with mostly Freshmen and Sophomores.
Example - UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior minutes. This is a big bonus.
#4 - Regression of a team towards 0.500
There's a statistical theory in Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" that says a team tends to regress towards 0.500. Intuitively, this makes sense. It's pretty darn hard to stay at the upper echelon of the league on a consistent basis. Players leave, and no matter how talented a team or coach may be, eventually that team gets pulled towards 0.500. It's a mark of a good coach to keep the team performing consistently above this trend. Likewise, it's also hard for a team to stay bad for a consistently long time, if for no other reason than the team can get a new coach and offer players the promise of playing time.
Example - Providence should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9. Based strictly on the numbers, PC should expect a 9% increase in win % for a record of 7.8 - 10.2. Considering that the team actually ended up 6 - 12, PC is looking at a two game bump just based on stats... and the makings of a "Keno Davis Turnaround Story" sometime in Feb.
#5 - Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
I'll fess up... I didn't feel like looking up every single team for notable transfers and incoming juco players. So instead I went on the basis of the RSCI Top 100 list to see which teams were bringing in consensus top 100 talent. In a lot of situations, this can offset the loss of starting minutes. However, as seen by our beloved Marquette team, which introduced two juco players that expect to compete for playing time, there are some limitations to using this format.
Example - Georgetown lost a lot of quality players last year, like some guys named Hibbert and Wallace. However, they offset that by adding the RSCI #65, #66, and #79 players as freshmen. That's a big bonus.
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For every section, I compiled the stats for last year's conference play, and then tracked teams on each category. Special attention was paid to situations where a team was more than a standard deviation above or below the mean. Using this criteria, we'll tackle each of the teams in the Big East to see where the various teams may be influenced.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
James leads MU past Nova
Dominic James' scintillating 25-point performance led MU to an 85-75 win at Villanova, the Golden Eagles' fourth road win in Big East action. James keyed a 53-point offensive outburst in the second half as MU overcame a seven point halftime deficit, forcing 23 'Nova turnovers in the process. James had 4 assists and a season high 6 steals.
Lazar hit for 15 with 9 rebounds, McNeal for 14 points. Mo Acker was the surprise firecracker off the bench, scoring 12 points in 13 minutes.
With the win MU improved to 21-6 overall and 11-5 in the Big East. Marquette has now won five straight and next hosts Georgetown on Saturday.
More to come later, but here are some media recaps......a great win for MU.
Media Updates
Monday, February 25, 2008
Big Monday, bigger opportunity
Marquette visits the Villanova Wildcats on Monday night, the Golden Eagles' second appearance on the Big East's weekly ESPN showcase. The Golden Eagles (20-6, 10-5), winners of four straight, will have to notch another conference road win to keep pace with the upper echelon of the Big East in hopes of sneaking in for a first round bye in the Big East tournament.
Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm CST on ESPN.
Like Marquette, Villanova (17-9, 7-7) is one of the hottest teams in the Big East as the winners of three in a row and four of their last five. On Saturday, the Wildcats upset UConn 67-65 behind 18 points from Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes. Villanova is paced by Reynolds, the 2006-2007 Big East freshman of the year, at better than 16 points per game. Freshman Corey Fisher and senior Dante Cunningham each clock in with 10 points per game.
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Villanova. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
- 72% - Pomeroy forecasts a 72% chance of Marquette victory
- Be very cautious about this one... and just remember that we were predicted as favorites to beat UConn and Louisville (both times)
- 63 - Villanova's ranking for Defensive Efficiency according to Pomeroy
- Contrast that with Marquette's rank of 9
- 89.7 - Villanova's Defensive Efficiency averaged over the last five games
- This means that opponents are scoring less than 0.90 points / possession
- The defense has really picked up for the Cats in their recent surge
- Skeptical? It also includes wins against WVU, UConn, and the near-win against Georgetown (who was held to 0.87 points / possession)
- 19.4% - The Turnover Rate for Villanova's offense
- This TO Rate is slightly better than average, and if Marquette is able to force them above 20% turnover rate, then we should be okay
- 330 - Villanova's national rank at Free Throw Rate defense
- And we thought Marquette (rank of 266) did a poor job of this
- Let's all hope that the refs let the team play a little bit, or we're all in for a long night
Media Links
- MU preview/game notes
- Philly Inquirer on the confident Wildcats
- Rosiak on Christopherson's patience
- Appleton Post-Crescent game preview
- Scout.com preview
- I Bleed Blue and White with a preview of tonight's game from the 'Nova perspective
- Let's Go Nova with another Villanova preview
Monday, February 19, 2007
Hello, Lazar Hayward!
UPDATED
The Louisville hangover lasted 13 minutes. At 7:14 during the Marquette/Nova matchup, a loud siren went off in the Bradley Center, warning the Warriors their season was going to end nasty, brutish, and short.
After playing sluggish, MU was down 9 and must have had the entire season flashing before their eyes. It could have gotten very ugly in the Bradley Center.
Then Lazar Hayward decided to take control.
His 3 pointer with 6:21 to go in the first half brought the Bradley Center faithful to their feet, and with inspired play, MU kept everyone standing and screaming. With a enormous defensive intensity and some hot shooting by Lazar, MU went on a 14-5 tear to tie the game at half. The season was on the line, and they answered.
Lazar finished with 18 points in 28 minutes, a good sign of things to come for the freshman. The game was a foul fest, with the whistle blowing a whopping 54 times. If you drive by the Bradley Center right now, you can still hear the echos.
After poor FT shooting led to a loss on Saturday, tonight was a different story. MU attempted 35 and made 31 for an 89% triumph at the line. -- Where that FT shooting form was on Saturday, I know not. -- Matthews himself went 12-12, and is shooting them at a 91% clip over the past 9 games. Most importantly, MU made all 11 of its attempts in the final 90 seconds. WHEW!
I can tell you first hand. This was way better than losing. Way better.
Go Marquette Recap
Official Box Score
Todd Rosiak recaps the MU victory.
VillanovaViewpoint provides an excellent recap.
Andrew Sharos at MarquetteHoops recaps the slump buster.
Philly.com on the Wildcats coughing up a 9 point first half lead.
Another recap from Philly.com -- this on the Wildcats offensive woes. BTW, sounds like Jay Wright was impressed with MU's offense last night."We don't have a rhythm," Wright said. "We're not comfortable to know where everybody is, where the next guy is on the next pass. [The Golden Eagles], they drive, extra pass, extra pass, extra pass, shot. We're still drive, extra pass, shot. It's just playing together and having a feeling for each other."
GAME PHOTOS HERE
I'm not sure if it was the whole "winning" thing, or if I had the right touch tonight, but I think these photos are the best I've taken all year. Enjoy.
ON TO NOTRE DAME!
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Nova / MU Preview
UPDATED:
BIG MONDAY -- 6PM -- ESPN
Tonight Marquette tries to break a 3 game skid against 'Nova.
Our blogging brethren at the Villanova Viewpoint have written up a nice preview of Monday's game.
Remember, wear gold to the game tomorrow. It's clear, we were a mere handful of gold claddened fans short Saturday night, and look what happened. We lost. Don't be the guy who makes us lose by wearing the wrong color.
The first 10,000 attendees the game wearing gold will receive a Steve Novak bobblehead. Non-gold wearing fans will be told to hang their head in shame.
During the game, Marquette Athletics will be holding a fundraiser for the Children's Medical Research Foundation. -- Monetary donations will be accepted upon entrance to Bradley Center. Have a couple bucks ready when you walk into the Bradley Center tonight.
There will be a pre-game Seats For Soldiers ceremony recognizing local military personnel before tip.
