Projecting 2012-13 (Part 3 of 4): After game Kentucky, Kansas battle for Muhammad, Parker and top recruiting class to reload immediately

Today we look at the final source of talent - incoming freshman. Value Add shows that typically a team’s level of play is determined:

• 4% by players coming back from a year in which they were redshirted (injury, transfer or just weren’t ready – Part 1) or just didn't play much,

• 82% by the new level of projected play from players who did play the previous year (Part 2)

• 14% by incoming freshmen (this post, Part 3)

Unless you are John Calipari.

Heading into the championship tonight, freshman Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Kyle Wiltjer accounted for 59% of Kentucky’s Value Add instead of the average 14%. If Calipari can outduel Bill Self for top recruit Shabazz Muhammad and Tony Parker and then get Anthony Bennet and Amile Jefferson to add to a recruiting class that is already the 6th best, then he will have amassed 29.33% of projected Value Add from incoming freshman – almost Marquette’s figure for the entire roster last year - and be a national contender even assuming everyone bolts for the NBA as expected.

However, if Self can get Muhammad and Parker and then also win a battle with Baylor for Nino Jackson, then Kansas would get the top-Value Add recruiting class with 22.38% and since he is returning more Value Add from this years squad than Kentucky (see Part 2), would also have a very good chance to be No. 1 next year.

And all that is assuming a more typical 7.5% Value Add for Muhammad rather than the ridiculous national best 12.35% Anthony Davis put up this year to be one of five freshman to rank in the top 50:

Rnk	Freshman	Team	Ht	Off	Def	Val Add	Gone?
1	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	6' 10"	7.29	-5.06	12.35	DraftB
5	Cody Zeller	Indiana	6' 11"	6.69	-1.80	8.50	?DraftC
35	Bradley Beal	Florida	6' 3"	4.44	-1.56	6.50	DraftB
39	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kentucky	6' 7"	3.60	-1.68	6.28	DraftB
49	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6' 8"	3.61	-2.47	6.08	?DraftD

Of the roughly 600% Value Add expected from freshman next year, about 100% is still available. These are based on assuming next year’s freshman do as well as their counterparts this year (e.g. 57th rated recruit this year is projected to have the same Value Add as the 57th most valuable freshman had this past season). However, I did lower the top two to 7.5% and 7.0% rather than assume they match Davis and C. Zeller’s ridiculous performance level this year.

While Marquette did not have a lot of holes to fill with the current roster being so strong, they still would have ranked as the 24th best class (see notes between tables) if I used another ratings service. I used Rivals the first time I started to develop this, and I feel obligated to continue not because I know if it is any more accurate than Scout or ESPN, but because I didn’t want to start picking the service that makes Marquette recruits look the best in given year. Here are the top 40 recruiting classes based on Value Add and Rivals right now, with notes on why Kentucky and Kansas should both pass Arizona in the end:

Rank	Team	Val Add	Notes
1	Arizona	13.73	won't say #1, but 4 huge gets
2	Baylor	13.30	Jackson would make 15.96
3	Indiana	12.82	Nat'l contender if Zeller stays
4	Michigan	11.55
5	N.C. St.	11.18
6	Kentucky	11.08	could hit 29.33 with Muhammad, Parker, Bennett, Jefferson
7	UNC	9.99	may drop for a year
8	Pittsburgh	9.64
9	Michigan St.	9.52
10	Texas	9.22
11	Kansas	9.19	could hit 22.38 with Muhammed, Parker and Jackson
12	UCLA	9.07
13	Providence	8.08
14	Maryland	7.95
15	Tennessee	7.91
16	Texas Tech	7.76
17	Colorado	7.73	6 gets after Pac10 title
18	Wake Forest	7.36
19	Virginia	7.30
20	Iowa	7.02
21	Houston	6.76	unlike SMU (2.92), ready for BE
22	Mississippi St.	6.51
23	Purdue	6.50
24	Oklahoma	5.95
25	Auburn	5.83	but top 2011 recruit transferred
26	Oklahoma St.	5.80
27	Texas A&M	5.72
28	Missouri	5.66
29	Notre Dame	5.60
30	Syracuse	5.60
31	Clemson	5.39	5 solid gets
32	Villanova	5.36
33	Memphis	5.30
34	Georgetown	5.28
35	Oregon	5.06
36	UNLV	5.03
37	Washington St.	4.96
38	Florida	4.89
39	Iowa St.	4.71
40	Stanford	4.48	MU just misses, but in Scout would be 24th

As you can see, Rivals does not have any of our four recruits in the top 100, so we just miss the top 40 with a 4.26 for the class. However, if I had always used Scout for this, Steve Taylor would rank as the 69th best incoming vs. 108th in Rivals – thus meaning a Value Add of 2.19%. Jamal Ferguson ranks as the 29th best shooting guard in Scout, which would be a 1.44 Value Add. TJ Taylor ranked as the 104th best recruit in 2010 which would give him a 1.69 (he went to Oklahoma but had concussions so spent a year in JC and then came to Marquette), so if you add those totals to Aaron Durley’s 0.63, you end up with the 24th best Value Add of a recruiting class at 5.95% Value Add.

The four Marquette players are listed first below, then the 114 players still available, then an alphabetical list of every team with every recruit they have who is projected to add value in 2013 (Appalachian St., then Arizona, Arizona St., Arkansas, etc.):

Rank	Name	Ht	School	Off	Def	Val Add
108	Steve Taylor	6'7"	Marquette	1.16	0.52	1.68
137	Jamal Ferguson	6'3"	Marquette	0.99	0.44	1.43
324	Aaron Durley	6'9"	Marquette	0.43	0.19	0.63
375	T.J. Taylor	6'3"	Marquette	0.35	0.16	0.50
1	Shabazz Muhammad	6'6"	Available	5.18	2.33	7.50
7	Anthony Bennett	6'7"	Available	3.25	1.46	4.72
9	Devonta Pollard	6'7"	Available	3.10	1.39	4.50
33	Tony Parker	6'9"	Available	2.09	0.94	3.03
36	Amile Jefferson	6'8"	Available	2.07	0.93	3.00
43	Robert Upshaw	7'0"	Available	1.93	0.87	2.80
46	Nino Jackson	6'2"	Available	1.84	0.82	2.66
51	Torian Graham	6'4"	Available	1.81	0.81	2.63
53	Savon Goodman	6'6"	Available	1.75	0.79	2.53
81	Tevin Glass	6'8"	Available	1.40	0.63	2.03
85	Demetrius Henry	6'8"	Available	1.35	0.61	1.95
102	Phillip Nolan	6'10"	Available	1.17	0.53	1.70
103	Darryl Milburn	6'2"	Available	1.17	0.53	1.70
104	Darrick Wood	6'4"	Available	1.17	0.52	1.69
105	Christopher Obekpa	6'8"	Available	1.17	0.52	1.69
143	Anthony January	6'8"	Available	0.94	0.42	1.36
147	Jerron Wilbut	6'2"	Available	0.92	0.41	1.33
149	DeVon Walker	6'6"	Available	0.91	0.41	1.32
152	Sam Cassell	6'3"	Available	0.88	0.40	1.27
155	Jerran Young	6'5"	Available	0.86	0.39	1.25
156	Keith Coleman	6'9"	Available	0.86	0.39	1.25
160	Anton Wilson	6'6"	Available	0.84	0.38	1.22
163	Trency Jackson	6'2"	Available	0.83	0.37	1.21
164	Matt Korcheck	6'9"	Available	0.83	0.37	1.21
178	Dewayne Russell	5'9"	Available	0.78	0.35	1.12
193	Larry Lewis	6'3"	Available	0.72	0.32	1.05
196	Sheldon Jeter	6'7"	Available	0.71	0.32	1.03
197	Thaddeus Hall	6'5"	Available	0.70	0.31	1.01
206	Darius Moore	6'9"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
210	Demarcus Holland	6'3"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
213	Elgin Cook	6'5"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
215	Kaza Kajami-Keane	6'1"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
221	DeAndre Harper	6'6"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
223	Rashaun Stimage	6'7"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
225	Carlos Morris	6'5"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
227	Russel Wilson	6'0"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
228	Benji Bell	6'1"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
236	Markus Crider	6'6"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
237	Ryan Taylor	6'5"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
238	Valentine Izundu	6'10"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
243	William Howard	6'7"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
246	Nehemias Morillo	6'3"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
247	Malik Nichols	6'5"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
248	A.J. English	6'3"	Available	0.69	0.31	1.00
264	Quantel Denson	6'8"	Available	0.64	0.29	0.93
309	Jordan Goodman	6'8"	Available	0.49	0.22	0.70
313	James Ford	6'3"	Available	0.47	0.21	0.68
316	Evan Payne	6'1"	Available	0.45	0.20	0.66
334	Amedeo Della Valle	6'3"	Available	0.41	0.18	0.59
341	Terry Brutus	6'5"	Available	0.39	0.17	0.56
343	Matt Willms	6'11"	Available	0.39	0.17	0.56
348	Broderick Newbill	6'4"	Available	0.37	0.16	0.53
352	Obinna Oleka	6'7"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.51
357	Jalen Jackson	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
358	Victor Robbins	6'6"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
360	Jordan Tebbutt	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
361	Marquis Mondy	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
362	Madison Jones	6'0"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
363	Jaylen Beckham	6'0"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
366	William Powell	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
367	John Papale	6'3"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
368	Cinmeon Bowers	6'7"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
369	Alex Anderson	5'10"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
370	Cameron Neysmith	6'4"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
372	Michael Gilmore	5'11"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
373	Matthias Sigurdarson	6'0"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
377	David Andoh	6'7"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
379	Daiquan Walker	6'3"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
380	Johnny Woodard	6'4"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
382	Travis Hammonds	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
383	Jonathan Milligan	6'2"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
387	Tyler Scott	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
388	Marcel White	6'5"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
389	Caleb Dressler	6'9"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
391	Travon Williams	6'2"	Available	0.35	0.16	0.50
393	Dominique Wilson	6'8"	Available	0.34	0.15	0.49
394	Michael Lewis	6'8"	Available	0.33	0.15	0.48
395	Arroyo Edwards	6'5"	Available	0.33	0.15	0.48
396	Niem Stevenson	6'3"	Available	0.33	0.15	0.47
397	Wesley Staten	6'0"	Available	0.32	0.14	0.47
398	Justin Pride	5'10"	Available	0.31	0.14	0.45
399	Billydee Williams	6'5"	Available	0.31	0.14	0.45
400	Jeremiah Jones	6'3"	Available	0.31	0.14	0.45
401	Dashawn Suber	5'11"	Available	0.31	0.14	0.44
402	Preston Herring	6'7"	Available	0.30	0.13	0.43
403	Jeffery Moss	6'4"	Available	0.30	0.13	0.43
404	De'Ontae Hooks	6'3"	Available	0.29	0.13	0.42
405	Glen Feidanga	6'6"	Available	0.28	0.12	0.40
420	Devon Edwards	5'10"	Available	0.25	0.11	0.36
421	Gary Akbar	6'4"	Available	0.24	0.11	0.35
422	Sydie London	6'3"	Available	0.24	0.11	0.35
427	Aaron Scales	6'9"	Available	0.23	0.10	0.33
445	Frank Bartley	6'2"	Available	0.19	0.09	0.28
446	J.R Harris	6'3"	Available	0.19	0.08	0.27
449	Ryan Garcia	6'1"	Available	0.18	0.08	0.26
450	William House	6'4"	Available	0.18	0.08	0.26
451	Jarrain Jenkins	6'4"	Available	0.17	0.08	0.25
452	Garrett Wilson	6'1"	Available	0.17	0.08	0.25
453	Luke Savoy	6'0"	Available	0.17	0.08	0.25
455	Zach Jones	6'0"	Available	0.17	0.08	0.24
456	Trelinco Polk	6'2"	Available	0.17	0.08	0.24
457	Bridge Michael Lavey	6'6"	Available	0.16	0.07	0.23
459	Jeremy Postell	6'5"	Available	0.16	0.07	0.23
460	Jibrail Hayes	6'0"	Available	0.16	0.07	0.23
462	Marcus Dortch	6'4"	Available	0.16	0.07	0.23
463	Quan jones	6'1"	Available	0.15	0.07	0.22
464	Jobe Dillard	6'2"	Available	0.15	0.07	0.22
465	Kimani Key	5'11"	Available	0.15	0.07	0.21
466	Fletcher Forte	5'11"	Available	0.15	0.07	0.21
467	Shermonne Jones	5'10"	Available	0.14	0.07	0.21
468	Caleb Crayton	6'5"	Available	0.14	0.06	0.21
469	Demarcus Threatt	5'10"	Available	0.14	0.06	0.21
470	Jason Laatsch	6'2"	Available	0.14	0.06	0.21
471	Quincy Mitchell	6'6"	Available	0.14	0.06	0.20
430	Michael Obacha	6'8"	Appalachian St.	0.23	0.10	0.33
13	Brandon Ashley	6'8"	Arizona	2.96	1.33	4.29
20	Kaleb Tarczewski	7'0"	Arizona	2.59	1.16	3.75
31	Gabe York	6'2"	Arizona	2.11	0.95	3.05
50	Grant Jerrett	6'9"	Arizona	1.82	0.82	2.63
148	Eric Jacobsen	6'10"	Arizona St.	0.92	0.41	1.33
275	Kenny Martin	6'9"	Arizona St.	0.60	0.27	0.87
276	Calaen Robinson	6'2"	Arizona St.	0.60	0.27	0.87
127	JaCorey Williams	6'8"	Arkansas	1.04	0.47	1.50
241	Michael Qualls	6'5"	Arkansas	0.69	0.31	1.00
291	Anthlon Bell	6'3"	Arkansas	0.55	0.25	0.79
417	Josh Hagins	6'1"	Arkansas-Little Rock	0.25	0.11	0.37
71	Jordan Price	6'5"	Auburn	1.49	0.67	2.16
205	Asauhn Dixon-Tatum	6'11"	Auburn	0.69	0.31	1.00
208	Brian Greene Jr.	6'3"	Auburn	0.69	0.31	1.00
280	Shaquille Johnson	6'5"	Auburn	0.58	0.26	0.84
281	Jordon Granger	6'7"	Auburn	0.57	0.26	0.83
433	Mading Thok	6'11"	Ball St.	0.23	0.10	0.33
5	Isaiah Austin	7'0"	Baylor	4.20	1.88	6.08
37	Ricardo Gathers	6'6"	Baylor	2.06	0.93	2.99
95	L.J. Rose	6'4"	Baylor	1.23	0.55	1.79
135	Chad Rykhoek	6'11"	Baylor	1.00	0.45	1.44
209	Craig Bradshaw	6'2"	Belmont	0.69	0.31	1.00
168	Edmunds Dukulis	6'8"	Boise St.	0.81	0.36	1.17
406	Joey Nebeker	6'8"	Boise St.	0.28	0.12	0.40
326	Olivier Hanlan	6'3"	Boston College	0.43	0.19	0.62
331	Joe Rahon	6'2"	Boston College	0.42	0.19	0.60
319	Maurice Watson	5'9"	Boston University	0.44	0.20	0.64
355	Ka'Darryl Bell	6'1"	Bradley	0.35	0.16	0.50
428	Stan Wier	6'2"	Buffalo	0.23	0.10	0.33
141	Kellen Dunham	6'4"	Butler	0.95	0.43	1.38
392	Chris Harrison-Docks	6'0"	Butler	0.34	0.15	0.49
458	Devonte Morgan	6'3"	Butler	0.16	0.07	0.23
78	Tyrone Wallace	6'4"	California	1.41	0.63	2.04
179	Kaileb Rodriguez	6'9"	California	0.77	0.35	1.11
436	Tajai Johnson	6'2"	California Riverside	0.22	0.10	0.32
438	Dayton Boddie	6'3"	California Riverside	0.22	0.10	0.32
130	Shawn Lester	6'2"	Charlotte	1.02	0.46	1.48
212	Willie Clayton	6'8"	Charlotte	0.69	0.31	1.00
257	Darion Clark	6'7"	Charlotte	0.66	0.30	0.95
167	Titus Rubles	6'7"	Cincinnati	0.82	0.37	1.19
117	Adonis Filer	6'2"	Clemson	1.07	0.48	1.55
119	Jaron Blossomgame	6'7"	Clemson	1.06	0.48	1.54
184	Josh Smith	6'7"	Clemson	0.75	0.34	1.08
308	Landry Nnoko	6'11"	Clemson	0.49	0.22	0.71
385	Jordan Roper	6'1"	Clemson	0.35	0.16	0.50
302	Darnell Harris	6'8"	Cleveland St.	0.52	0.23	0.75
303	Junior Lomomba	6'4"	Cleveland St.	0.52	0.23	0.75
424	Bryn Forbes	6'3"	Cleveland St.	0.24	0.11	0.34
425	Malik London	6'7"	Cleveland St.	0.23	0.11	0.34
65	Josh Scott	6'8"	Colorado	1.56	0.70	2.26
83	Xavier Johnson	6'7"	Colorado	1.38	0.62	2.00
161	Eli Stalzer	6'3"	Colorado	0.84	0.38	1.22
296	Chris Jenkins	6'6"	Colorado	0.52	0.24	0.76
297	Wesley Gordon	6'7"	Colorado	0.52	0.23	0.76
305	Xavier Talton	6'2"	Colorado	0.51	0.23	0.74
278	Jordan Mason	6'2"	Colorado St.	0.59	0.27	0.86
279	Jermaine Morgan	6'8"	Colorado St.	0.59	0.26	0.85
38	Omar Calhoun	6'3"	Connecticut	2.04	0.91	2.95
432	Holt Harmon	6'9"	Cornell	0.23	0.10	0.33
274	Isaiah Zierden	6'1"	Creighton	0.61	0.27	0.88
139	Jevon Thomas	5'11"	Dayton	0.97	0.44	1.41
304	Devon Scott	6'8"	Dayton	0.51	0.23	0.74
381	Jalen Robinson	6'9"	Dayton	0.35	0.16	0.50
133	Jodan Price	6'6"	DePaul	1.01	0.45	1.47
182	Durrell McDonald	6'2"	DePaul	0.75	0.34	1.09
359	DeJuan Marrero	6'5"	DePaul	0.35	0.16	0.50
32	Rasheed Sulaimon	6'4"	Duke	2.10	0.94	3.05
413	Brian Harris	6'2"	Duquesne	0.27	0.12	0.38
171	Marshall Guilmette	6'10"	East Carolina	0.79	0.36	1.15
412	Mike Zangari	6'9"	East Carolina	0.27	0.12	0.39
335	Mario Stramaglia	6'0"	East Tennessee St.	0.41	0.18	0.59
336	Petey McClain	6'0"	East Tennessee St.	0.41	0.18	0.59
142	Ray Lee	6'3"	East. Michigan	0.95	0.42	1.37
437	Josip Mikulic	6'10"	Fairfield	0.22	0.10	0.32
443	Coleman Johnson	6'7"	Fairfield	0.20	0.09	0.29
444	Amadou Sidibe	6'8"	Fairfield	0.19	0.09	0.28
448	Marcus Gilbert	6'5"	Fairfield	0.18	0.08	0.27
62	Braxton Ogbueze	6'1"	Florida	1.60	0.72	2.32
87	Michael Frazier	6'4"	Florida	1.34	0.60	1.95
323	Dillon Graham	6'4"	Florida	0.43	0.19	0.63
232	Chris Bryant	6'7"	Florida Atlantic	0.69	0.31	1.00
423	Stefan Moody	5'9"	Florida Atlantic	0.24	0.11	0.35
59	Montay Brandon	6'6"	Florida St.	1.63	0.73	2.36
295	Devon Bookert	6'2"	Florida St.	0.53	0.24	0.76
298	Robert Gilchrist	6'8"	Florida St.	0.52	0.23	0.76
211	Marvelle Harris	6'4"	Fresno St.	0.69	0.31	1.00
376	Patrick Holloway	6'1"	George Mason	0.35	0.16	0.50
22	D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera	6'3"	Georgetown	2.56	1.15	3.70
115	Brandon Bolden	6'10"	Georgetown	1.09	0.49	1.57
125	Kenny Gaines	6'4"	Georgia	1.05	0.47	1.52
300	Brandon Morris	6'8"	Georgia	0.52	0.23	0.75
301	Charles Mann	6'6"	Georgia	0.52	0.23	0.75
353	Cleon Roberts	6'4"	Georgia Southern	0.35	0.16	0.50
419	T.J. Shipes	6'8"	Georgia St.	0.25	0.11	0.36
28	Robert Carter	6'8"	Georgia Tech	2.19	0.99	3.18
100	Marcus Hunt	6'5"	Georgia Tech	1.20	0.54	1.75
107	Chris Bolden	6'2"	Georgia Tech	1.16	0.52	1.68
128	Zena Edosomwan	6'8"	Harvard	1.03	0.46	1.50
134	Mike Hall	6'10"	Harvard	1.00	0.45	1.45
342	Siyani Chambers	5'11"	Harvard	0.39	0.17	0.56
386	Evan Cummins	6'8"	Harvard	0.35	0.16	0.50
15	Danuel House	6'7"	Houston	2.84	1.28	4.12
47	Chicken Knowles	6'9"	Houston	1.83	0.82	2.65
192	Michael Orris	6'2"	Illinois	0.73	0.33	1.05
344	Aaron Simpson	6'0"	Illinois St.	0.38	0.17	0.55
350	Anthony Beane	6'1"	Illinois St.	0.36	0.16	0.52
16	Hanner Perea	6'8"	Indiana	2.77	1.25	4.02
17	Kevin Ferrell	5'11"	Indiana	2.71	1.22	3.93
48	Jeremy Hollowell	6'8"	Indiana	1.82	0.82	2.64
131	Ron Patterson	6'3"	Indiana	1.02	0.46	1.48
299	Peter Jurkin	6'11"	Indiana	0.52	0.23	0.75
42	Adam Woodbury	7'0"	Iowa	1.93	0.87	2.80
96	Mike Gesell	6'2"	Iowa	1.23	0.55	1.78
286	Anthony Clemmons	6'1"	Iowa	0.56	0.25	0.81
287	Patrick Ingram	6'3"	Iowa	0.56	0.25	0.81
288	Kyle Meyer	6'9"	Iowa	0.56	0.25	0.81
98	Georges Niang	6'7"	Iowa St.	1.22	0.55	1.77
122	Sherron Dorsey-Walker	6'4"	Iowa St.	1.06	0.48	1.54
307	Nkereuwem Okoro	6'4"	Iowa St.	0.49	0.22	0.72
310	Nazareth Long	6'3"	Iowa St.	0.48	0.22	0.70
24	Perry Ellis	6'8"	Kansas	2.43	1.09	3.52
56	Andrew White	6'6"	Kansas	1.65	0.74	2.39
144	Zach Peters	6'9"	Kansas	0.92	0.41	1.34
245	Anrio Adams	6'3"	Kansas	0.69	0.31	1.00
259	Landen Lucas	6'8"	Kansas	0.65	0.29	0.94
290	Laimonas Chatkevicius	6'10"	Kansas St.	0.55	0.25	0.80
441	Jordan Montgomery	6'4"	Kennesaw St.	0.21	0.09	0.30
12	Archie Goodwin	6'4"	Kentucky	3.00	1.35	4.34
19	Alex Poythress	6'8"	Kentucky	2.62	1.18	3.80
39	Willie Cauley	7'0"	Kentucky	2.03	0.91	2.94
416	Dylan Greene	6'5"	Lipscomb	0.26	0.11	0.37
320	Branford Jones	6'2"	Long Beach St.	0.44	0.20	0.64
277	Alex Hamilton	6'4"	Louisiana Tech	0.60	0.27	0.87
112	Terry Rozier	6'0"	Louisville	1.09	0.49	1.58
371	Nick Osborne	6'8"	Loyola (IL)	0.35	0.16	0.50
440	Jeff White	6'0"	Loyola (IL)	0.21	0.09	0.30
447	Darrell Combs	6'1"	Loyola (IL)	0.18	0.08	0.27
454	Keith Carter	6'0"	Loyola (IL)	0.17	0.08	0.24
327	Taj Adams	6'7"	Loyola Marymount	0.43	0.19	0.62
75	Malik Morgan	6'3"	LSU	1.42	0.64	2.06
121	Kareem Canty	6'1"	Marshall	1.06	0.48	1.54
172	Elijah Pittman	6'8"	Marshall	0.79	0.36	1.15
260	Tamron Manning	6'4"	Marshall	0.65	0.29	0.94
44	Shaquille Cleare	6'9"	Maryland	1.91	0.86	2.77
76	Charles Mitchell	6'8"	Maryland	1.41	0.63	2.05
110	Jake Layman	6'8"	Maryland	1.13	0.51	1.63
202	Damonte Dodd	6'9"	Maryland	0.69	0.31	1.00
378	Seth Allen	6'2"	Maryland	0.35	0.16	0.50
26	Shaquille Goodwin	6'8"	Memphis	2.33	1.05	3.38
90	Damien Wilson	6'5"	Memphis	1.32	0.59	1.91
315	Tonye Jekiri	6'10"	Miami (FL)	0.46	0.21	0.66
333	Melvin Johnson	6'3"	Miami (FL)	0.41	0.18	0.59
3	Mitch McGary	6'10"	Michigan	4.49	2.02	6.50
34	Glenn Robinson III	6'5"	Michigan	2.08	0.93	3.01
79	Nick Stauskas	6'5"	Michigan	1.41	0.63	2.04
25	Gary Harris	6'4"	Michigan St.	2.39	1.08	3.47
80	Denzel Valentine	6'5"	Michigan St.	1.40	0.63	2.03
82	Matt Costello	6'9"	Michigan St.	1.40	0.63	2.03
84	Kenny Kaminski	6'7"	Michigan St.	1.38	0.62	1.99
251	Charles Buggs	6'7"	Minnesota	0.69	0.31	1.00
252	Wally Ellenson	6'6"	Minnesota	0.69	0.31	1.00
97	Martavious Newby	6'2"	Mississippi	1.22	0.55	1.77
198	Jason Carter	6'8"	Mississippi	0.70	0.31	1.01
231	Anthony Cortesia	6'9"	Mississippi	0.69	0.31	1.00
88	Craig Sword	6'3"	Mississippi St.	1.34	0.60	1.94
99	Gavin Ware	6'8"	Mississippi St.	1.21	0.54	1.75
194	P.J. Hardwick	5'10"	Mississippi St.	0.72	0.32	1.04
250	Josh Gray	6'1"	Mississippi St.	0.69	0.31	1.00
294	Fred Thomas	6'5"	Mississippi St.	0.54	0.24	0.78
195	Domonique Bull	6'4"	Missouri	0.72	0.32	1.04
218	Dorial Green-Beckham	6'6"	Missouri	0.69	0.31	1.00
268	Negus Webster-Chan	6'6"	Missouri	0.63	0.28	0.91
269	Ryan Rosburg	6'9"	Missouri	0.63	0.28	0.91
270	Tony Criswell	6'9"	Missouri	0.62	0.28	0.90
271	Stefan Jankovic	6'9"	Missouri	0.62	0.28	0.90
318	Marcus Marshall	6'2"	Missouri St.	0.44	0.20	0.64
339	Gavin Thurman	6'6"	Missouri St.	0.39	0.18	0.57
340	C.J. Ford	6'2"	Murray St.	0.39	0.18	0.56
346	Eric McCree	6'6"	Murray St.	0.37	0.17	0.53
6	Rodney Purvis	6'4"	N.C. St.	3.50	1.57	5.08
23	T.J. Warren	6'8"	N.C. St.	2.52	1.13	3.65
55	Tyler Lewis	5'11"	N.C. St.	1.69	0.76	2.46
187	Fahro Alihodzic	6'9"	Nebraska	0.74	0.33	1.08
262	Shavon Shields	6'4"	Nebraska	0.64	0.29	0.93
263	Benny Parker	5'8"	Nebraska	0.64	0.29	0.93
322	Cole Huff	6'6"	Nevada	0.43	0.20	0.63
345	Marqueze Coleman	6'4"	Nevada	0.38	0.17	0.55
173	Cheir Ajou	7'1"	New Mexico	0.79	0.35	1.14
337	Devon Williams	6'8"	New Mexico	0.40	0.18	0.58
354	Nick Banyard	6'8"	New Mexico	0.35	0.16	0.50
364	Obij Aget	7'0"	New Mexico	0.35	0.16	0.50
41	Marcus Paige	6'0"	North Carolina	1.94	0.87	2.81
49	Brice Johnson	6'9"	North Carolina	1.82	0.82	2.64
61	Joel James	6'10"	North Carolina	1.61	0.72	2.33
68	J.P. Tokoto	6'6"	North Carolina	1.53	0.69	2.21
426	Drimir Ferguson	5'9"	North Carolina Central	0.23	0.11	0.34
138	Kale Abrahamson	6'7"	Northwestern	0.98	0.44	1.43
190	Alex Olah	6'11"	Northwestern	0.74	0.33	1.07
191	Sanjay Lumpkin	6'6"	Northwestern	0.73	0.33	1.06
30	Cameron Biedscheid	6'7"	Notre Dame	2.12	0.95	3.08
93	Zach Auguste	6'10"	Notre Dame	1.25	0.56	1.81
306	Austin Burgett	6'9"	Notre Dame	0.50	0.22	0.72
89	Jelon Hornbeak	6'4"	Oklahoma	1.32	0.59	1.91
94	Buddy Hield	6'4"	Oklahoma	1.24	0.56	1.79
157	Isaiah Cousins	6'3"	Oklahoma	0.86	0.39	1.25
235	Jarion Henry	6'8"	Oklahoma	0.69	0.31	1.00
14	Marcus Smart	6'4"	Oklahoma St.	2.86	1.28	4.14
282	Kamari Murphy	6'8"	Oklahoma St.	0.57	0.26	0.83
283	Phil Forte	5'11"	Oklahoma St.	0.57	0.26	0.83
52	Dominic Artis	6'1"	Oregon	1.77	0.80	2.57
129	Ben Carter	6'8"	Oregon	1.03	0.46	1.49
249	Damyean Dotson	6'5"	Oregon	0.69	0.31	1.00
146	Langston Morris-Walker	6'5"	Oregon St.	0.92	0.41	1.33
151	Langston Morris-Walker	6'5"	Oregon St.	0.89	0.40	1.28
233	Maika Ostling	6'9"	Oregon St.	0.69	0.31	1.00
234	Jarmal Reid	6'7"	Oregon St.	0.69	0.31	1.00
189	Akosa Maduegbunam	6'3"	Penn St.	0.74	0.33	1.07
356	Brandon Taylor	6'6"	Penn St.	0.35	0.16	0.50
217	Jamal Lewis	6'1"	Pennsylvania	0.69	0.31	1.00
4	Steven Adams	6'10"	Pittsburgh	4.33	1.95	6.28
58	James Robinson	6'3"	Pittsburgh	1.63	0.73	2.36
207	Chris Jones	6'5"	Pittsburgh	0.69	0.31	1.00
8	Ricardo Ledo	6'5"	Providence	3.25	1.46	4.71
10	Kris Dunn	6'3"	Providence	3.06	1.37	4.43
153	Ian Baker	6'1"	Providence	0.87	0.39	1.26
390	Joshua Fortune	6'5"	Providence	0.35	0.16	0.50
91	Ronnie Johnson	5'10"	Purdue	1.30	0.59	1.89
101	Jay Simpson	6'9"	Purdue	1.17	0.53	1.70
106	Rapheal Davis	6'5"	Purdue	1.16	0.52	1.69
123	A.J. Hammons	7'0"	Purdue	1.05	0.47	1.53
113	Jordan Hare	6'8"	Rhode Island	1.09	0.49	1.58
169	Keith Washington	6'1"	Rice	0.81	0.36	1.17
410	Aly Mohamed	6'9"	Rice	0.27	0.12	0.39
411	Chase Brogna	6'0"	Rice	0.27	0.12	0.39
374	Terry Allen	6'7"	Richmond	0.35	0.16	0.50
429	Jared Drew	6'6"	Saint Louis	0.23	0.10	0.33
325	Chris Reyes	6'7"	Saint Mary's	0.43	0.19	0.62
40	Winston Shepard	6'8"	San Diego St.	1.99	0.89	2.88
124	Skylar Spencer	6'9"	San Diego St.	1.05	0.47	1.52
293	Matt Shrigley	6'6"	San Diego St.	0.54	0.24	0.78
384	Matt Christiansen	6'8"	San Francisco	0.35	0.16	0.50
181	Raymon Austin	6'8"	Seton Hall	0.76	0.34	1.11
439	Delvin Dickerson	6'4"	South Alabama	0.21	0.10	0.31
314	Tyrone Haughton	6'9"	South Carolina	0.46	0.21	0.67
116	Javontae Hawkins	6'5"	South Florida	1.09	0.49	1.57
180	Musa Abdul-Aleem	6'5"	South Florida	0.77	0.34	1.11
224	Zach LeDay	6'7"	South Florida	0.69	0.31	1.00
311	Waverly Austin	6'11"	South Florida	0.47	0.21	0.68
242	Blaise Mbargorba	7'0"	Southern Methodist	0.69	0.31	1.00
265	Uche Ofoegbu	6'5"	Southern Methodist	0.64	0.29	0.92
266	Brian Bernardi	6'3"	Southern Methodist	0.64	0.29	0.92
158	D.D Scarver	6'4"	Southern Miss	0.85	0.38	1.23
200	Felix Balamou	6'2"	St. John's	0.69	0.31	1.00
329	Kyle Molock	6'3"	St. Joseph's	0.42	0.19	0.61
351	Isaiah Miles	6'7"	St. Joseph's	0.36	0.16	0.52
442	Lawrence Fejokwu	6'8"	St. Peter's	0.20	0.09	0.29
73	Rosco Allen	6'8"	Stanford	1.44	0.65	2.09
132	Grant Verhoeven	6'8"	Stanford	1.02	0.46	1.47
267	Christian Sanders	6'3"	Stanford	0.64	0.29	0.92
27	DaJuan Coleman	6'8"	Syracuse	2.23	1.00	3.24
60	Jerami Grant	6'8"	Syracuse	1.63	0.73	2.36
174	Reggie Murphy	6'9"	TCU	0.79	0.35	1.14
175	Charles Hill	6'2"	TCU	0.79	0.35	1.14
330	Clyde Smith	6'2"	TCU	0.42	0.19	0.61
312	Daniel Dingle	6'7"	Temple	0.47	0.21	0.68
347	Devontae Watson	6'9"	Temple	0.37	0.17	0.53
349	Quenton DeCosey	6'5"	Temple	0.36	0.16	0.53
11	Jarnell Stokes	6'8"	Tennessee	3.05	1.37	4.43
165	Derek Reese	6'7"	Tennessee	0.83	0.37	1.20
166	D'Montre Edwards	6'6"	Tennessee	0.83	0.37	1.20
188	Armani Moore	6'5"	Tennessee	0.74	0.33	1.08
136	DeOndre Haynes	6'2"	Tennessee Tech	0.99	0.45	1.44
21	Cameron Ridley	6'10"	Texas	2.58	1.16	3.73
54	Prince Ibeh	6'10"	Texas	1.71	0.77	2.48
92	Javan Felix	5'11"	Texas	1.25	0.56	1.82
328	Ioannis Papapetrou	6'7"	Texas	0.42	0.19	0.61
338	Connor Lammert	6'9"	Texas	0.40	0.18	0.57
63	J-Mychal Reese	6'2"	Texas A&M	1.57	0.71	2.28
67	Alex Caruso	6'4"	Texas A&M	1.53	0.69	2.21
159	Shawn Smith	6'3"	Texas A&M	0.85	0.38	1.23
66	Wanaah Bail	6'8"	Texas Tech	1.54	0.69	2.23
185	Jamal Williams	6'3"	Texas Tech	0.75	0.34	1.08
186	Rodrigo Silva	6'11"	Texas Tech	0.75	0.33	1.08
203	Daylen Robinson	5'10"	Texas Tech	0.69	0.31	1.00
204	Aaron Ross	6'7"	Texas Tech	0.69	0.31	1.00
216	Michael Carey	6'5"	Texas Tech	0.69	0.31	1.00
418	Dusty Hannahs	6'3"	Texas Tech	0.25	0.11	0.36
114	Jerome Hairston	6'1"	Towson	1.09	0.49	1.58
201	Frank Mason	5'11"	Towson	0.69	0.31	1.00
321	Barrington Alston	6'8"	Towson	0.44	0.20	0.64
435	Timahj Parker-Rivera	6'7"	Towson	0.22	0.10	0.32
408	Marc Eddy Norelia	6'7"	Tulane	0.27	0.12	0.39
409	Louis Dabney	6'3"	Tulane	0.27	0.12	0.39
154	D'Andre Wright	6'9"	Tulsa	0.86	0.39	1.25
239	James Woodard	6'4"	Tulsa	0.69	0.31	1.00
240	Zeldric King	6'7"	Tulsa	0.69	0.31	1.00
162	Chris Jones	6'1"	UAB	0.84	0.38	1.21
214	Cameron Golden	6'1"	UAB	0.69	0.31	1.00
145	Staphon Blair	6'8"	UCF	0.92	0.41	1.33
170	Matt Williams	6'5"	UCF	0.81	0.36	1.17
230	Taylor Barnette	6'2"	UCF	0.69	0.31	1.00
407	Dylan Karell	6'10"	UCF	0.27	0.12	0.40
2	Kyle Anderson	6'8"	UCLA	4.83	2.17	7.00
74	Jordan Adams	6'5"	UCLA	1.43	0.64	2.07
414	Mitchell Brewe	6'8"	UC-Santa Barbara	0.27	0.12	0.38
434	Dalante Dunklin	6'1"	UC-Santa Barbara	0.22	0.10	0.33
45	Katin Reinhardt	6'4"	UNLV	1.87	0.84	2.71
150	Demetris Morant	6'8"	UNLV	0.91	0.41	1.32
222	DaQuan Cook	6'1"	UNLV	0.69	0.31	1.00
199	Brendyn Taylor	6'3"	USC	0.70	0.31	1.01
292	Strahinja Gavrilovic	6'8"	USC	0.54	0.24	0.78
126	Jordan Loveridge	6'6"	Utah	1.04	0.47	1.50
177	Josh Hearlihy	6'6"	Utah	0.78	0.35	1.13
332	Justin Seymour	6'3"	Utah	0.41	0.19	0.60
69	Twymond Howard	6'5"	UTEP	1.51	0.68	2.19
111	Chris Washburn	6'8"	UTEP	1.12	0.50	1.63
226	Kevin Bright	6'5"	Vanderbilt	0.69	0.31	1.00
258	A.J. Astroth	6'5"	Vanderbilt	0.66	0.29	0.95
431	Ethan O'Day	6'8"	Vermont	0.23	0.10	0.33
29	Daniel Ochefu	6'10"	Villanova	2.13	0.96	3.08
64	Ryan Arcidiacono	6'4"	Villanova	1.57	0.71	2.27
35	Justin Anderson	6'6"	Virginia	2.07	0.93	3.01
109	Mike Tobey	6'10"	Virginia	1.15	0.52	1.66
120	Evan Nolte	6'8"	Virginia	1.06	0.48	1.54
183	Teven Jones	6'1"	Virginia	0.75	0.34	1.09
317	Jordan Burgess	6'5"	Virginia Commonwealth	0.44	0.20	0.64
365	Justin Tuoyo	6'8"	Virginia Commonwealth	0.35	0.16	0.50
86	Montrezl Harrell	6'7"	Virginia Tech	1.34	0.60	1.95
261	Marshall Wood	6'8"	Virginia Tech	0.65	0.29	0.94
70	Codi Miller-McIntyre	6'1"	Wake Forest	1.50	0.67	2.17
118	Arnaud Adala Moto	6'6"	Wake Forest	1.07	0.48	1.55
219	Andre Washington	6'10"	Wake Forest	0.69	0.31	1.00
220	Tyler Cavanaugh	6'8"	Wake Forest	0.69	0.31	1.00
284	Aaron Rountree	6'7"	Wake Forest	0.57	0.25	0.82
285	Devin Thomas	6'8"	Wake Forest	0.57	0.25	0.82
77	Demarquise Johnson	6'5"	Washington St.	1.41	0.63	2.05
176	Brett Boese	6'7"	Washington St.	0.78	0.35	1.13
272	Richard Peters	6'9"	Washington St.	0.62	0.28	0.90
273	Richard Longrus	6'7"	Washington St.	0.61	0.27	0.88
57	Elijah Macon	6'9"	West Virginia	1.64	0.74	2.38
253	Terry Henderson	6'5"	West Virginia	0.69	0.31	1.00
289	Eron Harris	6'3"	West Virginia	0.55	0.25	0.80
461	Justin Browning	6'4"	Western Carolina	0.16	0.07	0.23
415	Kellen McCormick	6'8"	Western Michigan	0.26	0.12	0.38
254	Fred Van Vleet	5'11"	Wichita St.	0.69	0.31	1.00
255	Cleanthony Early	6'7"	Wichita St.	0.66	0.30	0.96
256	Deontae Hawkins	6'7"	Wichita St.	0.66	0.30	0.96
18	Sam Dekker	6'8"	Wisconsin	2.68	1.21	3.89
72	Semaj Christon	6'3"	Xavier	1.47	0.66	2.13
140	Myles Davis	6'1"	Xavier	0.97	0.43	1.40
229	James Farr	6'8"	Xavier	0.69	0.31	1.00
244	Jalen Reynolds	6'8"	Xavier	0.69	0.31	1.00

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 2 of 4): Kentucky losing most talent, while Indiana, Creighton, Ohio St. and Duke returning the most – MU 44th

The table of the 50 teams returning the most talent this year (not counting returning redshirts covered in Part 1 or freshman covered in Part 3) is at the bottom of this post. But first, for the hardest hit by departures.

"We will go from having the 2nd best duo in the country, to more of a committee of five excellent players – any of whom could explode. As for the projections, Gardner projects at #151 (even though Value Add doesn’t adjust for his time missed with injury, so could easily be top 100), J. Wilson is #307, Blue #369, Mayo #441 and Cadougan #489 (all in the top 12% of all D1 players)."

After their national championship tonight, Kentucky will be hit the hardest by player departures, losing 36.87% Value Add while keeping only the 3.59% from Kyle Wiltjer (ranked as the 1060th most valuable player this year). Their opponent Kansas will be the 4th hardest hit (20.72% Value Add lost), and Marquette isn’t far behind at 9th worst hit, amazing since we only lost two (incredible) players:

Team	Returning	Departing	Value Add ranks of departing players for 10 hardest hit teams
Kentucky	3.59	36.87	#1 Davis, #39 Gilchrist, #60 Jones, #67 Lamb, 3 others
UNC	10.19	21.36	#13 Zeller, #117 Marshall, #123 Henson, #310 Barnes
Missouri	14.87	20.75	#20 Denmon, #45 Ratliffe, #137 English, 2 others
Kansas	12.92	20.72	#10 Robinson, #37 Withey, #109 Taylor, #1141 Teahan
Wichita St.	8.03	20.56	#50 Ragland, #168 Stutz, #273 Murry, #355 Smith, #462 Kyles
Florida St.	6.52	18.77	#118 James, #124 Snear, #427 Loucks, #598 Dulkys, 3 others
Vanderbilt	9.48	18.16	#46 Taylor, #125 Tinsley, #190 Goulbourne, #774 Ezeli, 1 other
Purdue	8.28	17.04	#34 Hummel, #128 Jackson, #265 Smith, #869 Barlow
Marquette	19.00	16.39	#2 Crowder, #93 Darius Johnson-Odom
Michigan St.	3.84	15.43	#3 Green, #350 Wood, #465 Thornton

Except for John Calipari, who simply reloads every year with star freshman, returning players are the biggest part of most teams success in the coming year.

This is because 27% of players leave their teams, but they take 37% of the Value with them, as shown by this table. Returning players who played substantial minutes this year will likely provide about 82% of the roughly 4400% Value Add in the 2013 season, with returning red shirts, freshman and little used players stepping up combining for the other 18%.

	Players	Off	Def	Val Add
Departing	932	1052.35	-290.92	1612.77
Returning, 2012 Value Add	2523	1692.82	-491.07	2771.39
Returning, Projected 2013	2523	2441.51	-569.64	3598.65

Edit: I learned after first posting this that apparently Sean Miller agreed with my surprise calculation last month that TJ McConnell of Duquesne was one of the 20 most valuable players in the country. Last week McConnell announced he will transfer from Duquesne to either UVA or Arizona, who could truly be loaded again if he joins their top incoming class in 2014.

That means that it is possible the top 18 Value Add players could all move on for 2013, meaning #19 Doug McDermott is the top player who has declared he will return to a loaded Creighton team. On the Final Value Add Calculations tonight, I flagged each player as a “Grad,” “Transfer Out,” “DraftA” (declared for draft), “DraftB” (expected to go in draft), “?DraftC” (50/50 on going to draft), “?DraftD” (probably staying), or left the flag blank if they are coming back. For purposes of the math in this piece, I have assumed that C. Zeller, Jenkins, Canaan and all the other DraftC and DraftD players stay with their team, but even that would leave only four of the top 20 players returning for 2013. I’ll publish the top 2500 with Part 4, but for now here is the final top 20 (though Davis and Robinson could still move slightly tonight in their game, and Total Value Add can be more than "Off minus Def" if player gets credit for bringing the ball up the court):

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Off	Def	Val Add	Gone?
1	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	6' 10"	Fr	7.29	-5.06	12.35	DraftB
2	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6' 6"	Sr	6.24	-4.89	11.12	Grad
3	Draymond Green	Michigan St.	6' 7"	Sr	4.11	-4.00	9.11	Grad
4	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	6' 8"	Sr	7.67	-0.97	8.65	Grad
5	Cody Zeller	Indiana	6' 11"	Fr	6.69	-1.80	8.50	?DraftC
6	Jared Sullinger	Ohio St.	6' 9"	So	5.66	-2.71	8.37	DraftB
7	Will Barton	Memphis	6' 6"	So	5.62	-2.48	8.10	DraftA
8	Damian Lillard	Weber St.	6' 2"	Jr	7.06	0.00	8.06	DraftA
9	Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	6' 1"	Sr	5.69	-0.75	7.94	Grad
10	Thomas Robinson	Kansas	6' 9"	Jr	4.11	-3.70	7.81	DraftB
11	Reggie Hamilton	Oakland	5' 11"	Sr	6.79	0.00	7.79	Grad
12	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	6' 3"	Jr	4.30	-2.44	7.74	DraftA
13	Tyler Zeller	North Carolina	7' 0	Sr	5.35	-1.89	7.74	Grad
14	John Shurna	Northwestern	6' 9"	Sr	6.73	-0.96	7.69	Grad
15	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	6' 4"	Jr	7.18	0.00	7.68	?DraftC
16	T.J. McConnell	Duquesne	6' 1"	So	3.32	-2.66	7.48
17	Scott Machado	Iona	6' 1"	Sr	5.33	0.00	7.33	Grad
18	Isaiah Canaan	Murray St.	6' 0	Jr	5.54	-0.71	7.25	?DraftC
19	Doug McDermott	Creighton	6' 7"	So	7.23	0.00	7.23
20	Marcus Denmon	Missouri	6' 3"	Sr	6.88	-0.20	7.08	Grad

When we add up the Value Adds of just the returning players – not the returning red shirts we covered in Part 1 or the freshman we will cover in Part 3 – Cody Zeller projects to improve as a sophomore to be the top player in the country at 11.50% and give Indiana the most returning talent at 34.09%, while Doug McDermitt projects to be the second most valuable player at 10.23% and give Creighton the 2nd most returning talent at 28.86%. We never assume a player gains more than 3% in Value Add, which limits these two and a dozen others, but in other cases the projected offensive and defensive Value Adds projected to multiply by the following percentages depending on what year the player is (sophomores improve the most over their freshman year on average).

Projected Value Add improvement	Offense	Def	Ave. Total
becoming sophomore	2.46	1.16	2.85
becoming junior	1.46	1.16	1.69
becoming senior	1.13	1.16	1.30

The good news is that despite losing so much talent, Marquette still projects to be in the Top 50 in returning talent alone because Marquette is one of only ten teams with five returning players (not looking at 2012 redshirts Otule, Thomas or the freshmen yet) to project to be in the top 500. We will go from having the 2nd best duo in the country, to more of a committee of five excellent players – any of whom could explode. As for the projections, Gardner projects at #151 (even though Value Add doesn’t adjust for his time missed with injury, so could easily be top 100), J. Wilson is #307, Blue #369, Mayo #441 and Cadougan #489.

The only other nine teams with five returning players in the top 500 are; Creighton, Duke, Indiana, K-State, LaSalle, St. Louis, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin.

The following are the 50 teams with the most returning Value Add from players who played substantial minutes this year, followed by a few other potential future opponents. The nice thing about Value Add is that as rosters change through recruits or additional players changing their mind on the NBA Draft, you simply add or subtract their Value Add number. So if Cody Zeller announced for the draft, you subtract his projected 11.50% and Indiana drops from 1st on this list at 34.09% Value Add to 23rd on the list at 22.59% Value Add. Here is the list, and we will cover the freshman projections in the next piece, and please post a comment or email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com any time you note a correction or update.

Rnk	Team	Returning 2013	Lost 2012	Notes on returnee projections
1	Indiana	34.09	4.61	#1 Zeller, #172 Watford need to stay
2	Creighton	28.86	4.31	#2 McDermott plus 4 in top 500
3	Ohio St.	27.19	12.00	#5 Craft needs #10 Thomas to stay
4	Duke	26.35	7.18	Ma. Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Cook top 200
5	Gonzaga	25.28	3.98	#13 Pangos, #96 Bell
6	Saint Joseph's	24.97	0.00	#8 Galloway, #66 Aiken
7	Notre Dame	24.89	2.30	#16 Cooley, #44 Grant PLUS Abromaitis
8	Oregon St.	24.79	0.00	#63 Collier +2 top 400
9	Wisconsin	24.55	9.26	#84 Gasser, #121 Berggren, #157 Evans
10	Minnesota	24.12	1.54	doesn't count Mbakwe, medical redshirt
11	Kansas St.	24.06	4.16	#27 McGruder plus 4 top 500
12	Pittsburgh	24.02	6.44	#33 Patterson +2 top 300
13	Florida	23.93	12.50	#25 Boyton, #88 Young prob. Staying
14	Memphis	23.85	11.28	#60 Black, #73 Crawford, #140 Jackson
15	La Salle	23.84	4.46	#85 Duren, #92 Wright plus 3 top 500
16	Louisville	23.54	9.55	#15 Dieng, #54 Behanan plus healthy Siva
17	Illinois St.	23.47	0.00	Carmichael, Ekey, Moore top 200
18	Syracuse	23.41	20.92	#64 Fair plus 4 top 500
19	Davidson	23.40	0.15	Cochran, Cohen, Brooks top 200
20	Texas	23.39	11.97	#30 McClellan, #91 Holmes, #153 Kabongo
21	Richmond	23.20	3.19	#74 Anthony +3 top 300
22	Providence	22.86	0.00	#43 Henton, #56 Cotton, lost noone
23	New Mexico	22.60	7.20	#89 Williams, #100 Greenwood +2 top 500
24	VCU	22.57	3.79	like Marquette, 5 between #150 and #500
25	St. Louis	22.47	5.79	#78 Mitchell plus 4 top 500
26	South Dakota St.	22.37	3.46	#21 Wolters should stay
27	Michigan St.	22.20	15.43	#69 Dawson, #80 Appling + 2 top 400
28	California	21.97	5.91	#40 Cobbs plus two top 100s
29	Ohio	21.40	0.35	#98 Cooper +2 top 250
30	North Carolina St.	21.00	4.42	#45 Brown, needs Leslie to stay
31	Alabama	20.78	6.87	Releford #22, plus 8 others
32	Tennessee	20.74	2.24	#79 Golden and … #199 Maymon
33	Rutgers	20.52	1.24	4 top 500, lost only Biruta
34	St. Mary's	20.20	8.45	#34 Dellavedova, #111 Holt, #114 Waldow
35	Georgetown	20.11	15.31	#4 Porter, Lubick and Trawick top 500
36	South Carolina Upstate	19.90	0.97	#75 Green, #102 Craig
37	Northern Iowa	19.60	1.12	#20 Tuttle +3 top 500
38	Miami FL	19.42	4.29	#119 Scott plus three top 500
39	Colorado St.	19.33	2.42	#48 Hornung, plus three top 500s
40	Drexel	19.27	3.62	#18 Massenat, #81 Lee
41	Iowa	19.22	6.45	#77 White, #126 Marble
42	Akron	19.04	2.03	all 7 back, Abreu #158,plus two top 250
43	Bucknell	19.04	0.50	#59 Muscala, plus 8 others
44	Marquette	19.00	16.39	5 in top 500 plus returning Otule, J. Thomas
45	Baylor	18.90	14.92	#31 Walton, #46 Jackson
46	Houston	18.63	1.45	ready with #61 Thomas, #148 Young, #360 Harris
47	Temple	18.60	7.90	#28 Wyatt plus 3 top 500
48	Stanford	18.58	5.96	#53 Randall, #142 Bright
49	North Dakota St.	18.56	1.34	#115 Bjorklund +7 back
50	Virginia Tech	18.46	3.30	#58 Green apparently staying
				OTHERS WE MAY FACE
	Cincinnati	13.21	12.96	#50 Wright, plus two top 500s
	Connecticut	17.39	11.16	if #17 Napier, #104 Boatwright go, then no top 500
	Seton Hall	15.20	9.78	#52 Edwin, #497 Cosby
	Southern Methodist	6.36	2.88	lost only top 1000 player, #476 Nyakundi
	Villanova	15.91	5.27	#235 Yarou, #290 Cheek
	Wisconsin Green Bay	15.37	1.59	#167 Brown plus 3 in top 500

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 1 of 4): Otule and Thomas give MU 10th best returning redshirts – Louisville and Notre Dame 3rd and 4th

Last night four of the top 7 Value Add players in last May's projections were on the court in the Final Four games, but the scary part was seeing how well Louisville fought Kentucky despite note yet having transfer Luke Hancock from George Mason or the injured Mike Marra.

Those two rank as the 6th and 11th best players in the country returning from a redshirt year, as they combine for a projected 7.66% Value Add from players coming back from a redshirt year. At the bottom of this post is the list of 100 players who took a red shirt this year, but are likely to have Value Add next year.

Missouri and West Virginia have the most projected Value Add from current redshirts, but right behind them are Big East foes Louisville and Notre Dame, with Marquette just a few spots back at 10th best in the country with Otule and Thomas. This post reviews the returning red shirts for every team, and this will be followed by posts on projected Value Adds for new recruits and returning players from this year’s teams – finally wrapping up with the overall projected Value Add for all 345 teams for the 2012-13 season and where Marquette ranks in the Big East and nationally.

Notre Dame gets the #1 returning player in Tim Abromaitis and with #40 Garrick Sherman ranks as the 4th best team overall, but Marquette’s combination of sharp shooter Jake Thomas (15th most valuable incoming transfer/41st best player coming back from redshirt) and Chris Otule (29th best returning player) give Marquette the 10th best Value Add from redshirted players. The following are the top 20 teams in the country:

Projected 2012-13 Value Add from current red shirts
1. Missouri 7.99
2. West Virginia 7.95
3. Louisville 7.66
4. Notre Dame 7.01
5. Iowa St. 6.32
6. Minnesota 5.51
7. Temple 5.15
8. Butler 4.41
9. Utah 4.07
10. Marquette 3.58
11. North Carolina 3.54
12. California 3.29
13. Oregon 3.12
14. Kentucky 2.99
15. Hofstra 2.89
16. Nebraska 2.69
17. Southern Cal 2.58
18. Rutgers 2.56
19. Canisius 1.98
20. Drake 1.97

Last May we did a similar piece noting that Jamil Wilson projected as the 23rd best transfer, but sharp-shooter Jake Thomas ranks 8 spots higher based on lighting it up at South Dakota. Remember, Value Add is adjusted for competition, so his ability to average putting up seven treys a game and still maintain a 39% accuracy from beyond the arc for two years truly gives the perfect complement to Otule’s power defense inside – whether he comes in to bury a couple of shots a game or is utilized more to destroy zones.

I laid out that Value Add indicated MU should be almost at the same level next year, but has a real shot in 2014 to go to the Final Four. Of course, that was in the vacuum of looking at MU only, so we will see how we actually stack up once all 345 teams’ Value Add is tallied.

After compiling these three lists of projected Value Adds, we will sum up in a fourth piece where all of the teams across the country rate in cumulative Value Add.

Some other players you may note from the table below are players who could have ended up at Marquette in Aaric Murray (#3, chose West Virginia), D.J Newbill (#20) and Korie Lucious (#23), as well as former MU players Trevor Mbakwe (#2) and Erik Williams (#74).

This does not include any new players who could transfer immediately, such as huge impact players such as Alex Oriakhi of UConn and Trent Lockett of Arizona State.

I always appreciate any corrections to my database, so please email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com if something is wrong on this sheet, or just looks off to you. College Hoops Update does a great job of keeping up a list of projected rosters, so if you aren’t sure, check that out by clicking here and if you catch something, I will update this list.

Here is the table. There weren’t quite 100 players who projected to add value, so I included a couple at 0% who were close to round out the list at 100:

Rnk	FNAme	Lname	Height	Team	Off	Def	Tot	Year	Old school
1	Tim	Abromaitis	6' 8"	Notre Dame	5.51	0.00	5.51	Sr
2	Trevor	Mbakwe	6' 8"	Minnesota	3.52	-1.99	5.51	Sr
3	Aaric	Murray	6' 10"	West Virginia	3.67	-1.37	5.04	Jr	Xavier
4	Will	Clyburn	6' 7"	Iowa St.	3.67	-1.35	5.02	Sr	Utah
5	Rotnei	Clarke	6' 0"	Butler	4.41	0	4.41	Sr
6	Luke	Hancock	6' 5"	Louisville	3	-1.15	4.15	Jr	George Mason
7	Aaron	Dotson	6' 4"	Utah	2.77	-1.29	4.07	Jr	Louisiana St.
8	Laurence	Bowers	6' 8"	Missouri	3.04	-0.99	4.03	Sr
9	Scootie	Randall	6' 6"	Temple	2.86	-1.08	3.94	Sr
10	Leslie	McDonald	6' 4"	North Carolina	1.21	-2.33	3.54	Jr
11	Mike	Marra	6' 4"	Louisville	0.39	-3.12	3.51	Jr
12	Ricky	Kreklow	6' 6"	California	2.95	-0.34	3.29	So	Missouri
13	Olu	Ashaolu	6' 7"	Oregon	1.10	-2.02	3.12	Sr	LouisianaTech
14	Juwan	Staten	6' 0"	West Virginia	0.00	-2.91	2.91	So	Dayton
15	Jamal	Coombs-McDaniel	6' 7"	Hofstra	1.13	-1.76	2.89	Jr
16	Marc	Trasolini	6' 9"	Santa Clara	2.89	0	2.89	Sr
17	Ryan	Harrow	5' 11"	Kentucky	2.60	0.00	2.60	So
18	Kourtney	Roberson	6' 9"	TexasA&M	1.42	-1.14	2.56	So
19	Nick	Minnerath	6' 8"	Detroit	2.53	0	2.53	Jr
20	D.J.	Newbill	6' 4"	Penn St.	2.49	0	2.49	So
21	Brandon	Wood	6' 2"	MICHIGAN St.	2.48	0	2.48	Jr	Valparaiso
22	Jabari	Brown	6' 4"	Missouri	2.40	0.00	2.40	Fr
23	Wally	Judge	6' 9"	Rutgers	2.30	0.00	2.30	Jr
24	Larry	Drew	6' 2"	UCLA	0.05	-2.24	2.29	Sr
25	Ramon	Galloway	6' 1"	LaSalle	0.88	-1.41	2.29	Jr	SouthCarolina
26	Kelly	Olynyk	6' 11"	Gonzaga	1.01	-1.19	2.20	Jr
27	Manny	Atkins	6' 7"	Georgia St.	1.18	-1.01	2.19	Jr
28	Khem	Birch	6' 8"	Pittsburgh	2.10	0.00	2.10	Fr	UNLV
29	Chris	Otule	6' 11"	Marquette	0.01	-2.08	2.09	Jr
30	Dwayne	Polee	6' 7"	San Diego St.	1.44	-0.63	2.07	So	St. John's
31	Seth	VanDeest	6' 11"	Drake	1.97	0	1.97	Jr
32	Andre	Almeida	6' 11"	Nebraska	0	-1.96	1.96	Sr
33	Stacey	Poole	6' 5"	GeorgiaTech	1.80	0.00	1.80	So	Kentucky
34	Darrell	Williams	6' 8"	Oklahoma St.	0.89	-0.91	1.80	Sr
35	Scott	Suggs	6' 6"	Washington	1.76	0	1.76	Sr
36	Bryson	Pope	6' 6"	KENT St.	0.00	-1.66	1.66	Jr	Tulsa
37	Lorne	Jackson	6' 2"	Pepperdine	1.6	0	1.60	Sr
38	Jio	Fontan	6' 0"	Southern California	0.58	-0.94	1.52	Jr	Fordham
39	Malcolm	Armstead	6' 0"	Wichita St.	1.50	0.00	1.50	Sr
40	Garrick	Sherman	6' 10"	NotreDame	0.43	-1.07	1.50	Jr
41	Jake	Thomas	6' 3"	Marquette	1.49	0.00	1.49	Jr	South Dakota
42	Earnest	Ross	6' 5"	Missouri	1.46	0	1.46	Jr
43	Will	Felder	6' 6"	MIAMI-OHIO	0.00	-1.41	1.41	Jr	St. Francis PA
44	Isaiah	Armwood	6' 7"	GeorgeWashington	1.40	0.00	1.40	So	Villanova
45	Korie	Lucious	5' 11"	Iowa St.	1.30	0.00	1.30	Sr	MichiganSt.
46	DeShawn	Dockery	5' 11"	TENNESSEE St.	0.00	-1.25	1.25	Jr	FarleighDickinson
47	Dalton	Pepper	6' 5"	Temple	0.69	-0.52	1.21	Jr
48	Lamont	Jones	6' 0"	IONA	1.15	0	1.15	So	Arizona
49	Isaac	Sosa	6' 3"	Canisius	1.1	0	1.10	Sr	CentralFlorida
50	Ari	Stewart	6' 7"	Southern California	0.00	-1.06	1.06	Jr	Wake Forest
51	Josh	McCoy	6' 4"	MISSOURI- St.LOUIS	1.01	0	1.01	So	ClevelandState
52	Sam	Prescott	6' 3"	Mount St. Mary's	0.00	-1.01	1.01	Jr	Marist
53	Vee	Sanford	6' 3"	Dayton	0.73	-0.25	0.98	Jr
54	Michael	Bizoukas	6' 1"	MISSOURI St.	0.00	-0.92	0.92	Sr	DePaul
55	Mangisto	Arop	6' 5"	INDIANA St.	0.31	-0.6	0.91	So	Gonzaga
56	Brian	Oliver	6' 6"	Seton Hall	0.90	0.00	0.90	Jr
57	Freddy	Asprilla	6' 10"	Canisius	0	-0.88	0.88	Sr
58	Marshawn	Powell	6' 7"	Arkansas	0.87	0	0.87	Jr
59	Kendrick	Washington	6' 7"	Arkansas St.	0.11	-0.72	0.83	Jr	Houston
60	Gene	Teague	6' 9"	Seton Hall	0.22	-0.60	0.82	Jr	Southern Illinois
61	Amath	M'Baye	6' 9"	OKLAHOMA	0.80	0.00	0.80	Jr
62	Eshaunte	Jones	6' 4"	NORTHERNKENTUCKY	0.04	-0.76	0.80	So	Nebraska
63	Charles	Carmouche	6' 2"	Memphis	0.75	-0.05	0.80	Sr
64	Ray	Gallegos	6' 3"	Nebraska	0	-0.73	0.73	Jr
65	Bryce	Jones	6' 5"	UNLV	0.00	-0.72	0.72	So	Southern California
66	Royce	Woolridge	6' 2"	Washington St.	0.70	0.00	0.70	So	Kansas
67	Antoine	Proctor	6' 3"	MONTANA-BILLINGS	0.00	-0.69	0.69	Sr	Sacramento St.
68	Glenn	Bryant	6' 7"	EasternMichigan	0.69	0	0.69	Jr
69	Chris	Pelcher	6' 10"	NEWHAMPSHIRE	0.68	0	0.68	So	Iona
70	Sampson	Carter	6' 8"	Massachusetts	0.62	0	0.62	Jr
71	Akeem	Richmond	6' 1"	EastCarolina	0.61	0	0.61	Jr
72	Julian	Gamble	6' 9"	Miami	0.61	0	0.61	Sr
73	Nikola	Cerina	6' 9"	Northwestern	0.00	-0.60	0.60	Jr	Texas Christian
74	Erik	Williams	6' 7"	Sam Houston St.	0.36	-0.15	0.52	Jr	Marquette
75	Zach	Bohannon	6' 7"	Wisconsin	0.42	0	0.42	Jr
76	Jamal	Branch	6' 3"	St. John's	0.40	0.00	0.40	Fr	TexasA&M
77	Marko	Petrovic	6' 3"	XAVIER	0.39	0	0.39	Fr	SanFrancisco
78	Maurice	Creek	6' 5"	Indiana	0.39	0	0.39	Jr
79	Jon	Hood	6' 7"	Kentucky	0	-0.39	0.39	Jr
80	J'mison	Morgan	6' 10"	Baylor	0.03	-0.34	0.37	Sr
81	Riley	Barker	6' 9"	Portland	0.32	0	0.32	So
82	Colton	Iverson	6' 10"	Colorado St.	0.02	-0.29	0.31	Sr
83	Noruwa	Agho	6' 3"	Columbia	0.28	0	0.28	Jr
84	Austin	Carroll	6' 3"	Rutgers	0.26	0	0.26	So
85	Jordan	Jahr	6' 6"	Evansville	0.25	0	0.25	So
86	Roger	Franklin	6' 5"	NorthTexas	0	-0.22	0.22	Jr
87	J.J.	Richardson	6' 8"	HOUSTON	0.20	0.00	0.20	So	Arizona
88	Darius	Leonard	6' 9"	CAMPBELL	0.18	0	0.18	Fr	KentState
89	Joe	Latas	6' 11"	HOUSTONBAPTIST	0.18	0	0.18	Jr	ClevelandState
90	Hayden	Humes	6' 8"	ILLINOISCHICAGO	0.15	0	0.15	Fr	Toledo
91	Keion	Bell	6' 3"	Missouri	0.1	0	0.10	Sr
92	Will	Regan	6' 9"	BUFFALO	0.00	-0.07	0.07	So	Virginia
93	Evan	Gordon	6' 2"	Arizona St.	0.06	0	0.06	Jr
94	Desmar	Jackson	6' 5"	Southern Illinois	0.06	0	0.06	Jr
95	Dre’	Winston	6' 1"	PORTLAND St.	0.00	-0.03	0.03	So	Washington St.
96	Jon	Horford	6' 9"	Michigan	0.00	-0.01	0.01	So
97	Amath	M’Baye	6' 9"	OKLAHOMA	0.00	0.00	0.00	So	Arizona
98	Hooper	Vint	6' 10"	Texas-ElPaso	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr
99	Cedrick	McAfee	6' 3"	Auburn	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr
100	Ben	McLemore	6' 5"	Kansas	0.00	0.00	0.00	Fr