Dayton Flyers
November 19th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum
Head Coach: Anthony Grant (365-193 overall, 172-82 at Dayton)
Three-Year NET Average: 57.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 62.7
Projected 2025-26 T-Rank: 77
Photo from daytonflyers.com
State of the Program
Anthony Grant has established his program as one that is generally top-3 in the Atlantic 10, but typically finds themselves outside the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. Over the past seven years, they've been top-3 six times, but also only earned one NCAA bid (though they would've been a 1-seed had the 2020 tournament taken place). Last year was no exception. They got high-profile wins over tournament teams UConn and Marquette only to offset them with league losses to George Washington, UMass, and St. Bonaventure. This led to the NIT for the fifth time in Grant's tenure. The question this year is if continuing to be good enough to come up just short of the NCAA Tournament is good enough for Flyer fans. If not, Grant may find himself on the hot seat come March despite a relatively successful tenure.
Rotation
Javon Bennett slides from the 2 to the 1 after Malachi Smith transferred to UConn. This won't be his first shot at the point; he played major minutes there in 2023-24 when Smith was injured. Bennett benefited significantly last year being off the ball, especially from long range where he shot 39.0% from deep after a combined 29.8% his first two seasons in D1. Don't be surprised at three-point regression as he'll be expected to create more for others once again. His partner in the back court is De'Shayne Montgomery, a Georgia transfer who struggled to get on the court last year amidst academic issues. He was a solid rim/three scorer at Mount St. Mary's with good defensive length and the Flyers will hope he returns to that form. Jordan Derkack comes over from Rutgers. He's a smart shot-taker who struggled with the step up from the NEC to the Big 10 last year. Keonte Jones is an undersized forward who was a monster rebounder. He isn't the most efficient scorer but is great at hitting the offensive glass and kicking out to shooters. The key to a tourney bid will likely be sophomore big man Amaël L'Etang, who is already popping up on early 2026 draft boards. He showed the ability to put up high efficiency on high usage as a part-time starter. His efficiency and minutes increased in conference play. That along with his prowess as a shot-blocker, passer, rebounder and inside-our scorer projects him as a major 2025-26 breakout candidate. If Grant gets back to the NCAA Tournament, L'Etang will be a major reason why. Off the bench, Bryce Heard is most likely to challenge for starting minutes, having been moderately effective in limited minutes for NC State. Adam Nije and Malcolm Thomas (above stats are from high school) should both factor in as well.
Style of Play
Under Grant, Dayton moves the ball fluidly and tries to put five players on the floor that can step outside to hit a shot. Even his bigs like Obi Toppin and Daron Holmes, who initially were hesitant to take threes, became confident shooters by the time they left. They use ball screens to create perimeter looks, running a lot of pick-and-pop or drive-and-kick actions. Grant also likes to run a lot through his big men so don't be surprised to see more high/low or inside/out actions, especially with a pair of solid passing forwards in L'Etang and Jones.
Shot charts from CBBAnalytics.com
Defensively, Dayton really struggled last year, posting the worst efficiency rating (#148) since Grant's first year. The two main issues seemed to be allowing high-percentage looks at the rim and a lack of perimeter size. Grant's best defenses play in man, make teams work deep into the shot clock, deny looks at the rim, and defend without fouling. Last year, they didn't have any quality secondary shot-blocker and a lack of perimeter size (5'10" Bennett, 6'0" Malachi Smith, 6'0" Posh Alexander, and 6'3" Enoch Cheeks) meant that while they forced turnovers at a higher rate, they struggled to challenge shots on the perimeter, deny passes to the interior, and stop drivers. Keonte Jones is a much better defensive piece alongside L'Etang while Montgomery, Derkack, and Heard give the Flyers more perimeter length. This should be a much better defensive team.
2025-26 Outlook
The consensus seems to be down on Dayton. Posh Alexander, Nate Santos, Zed Key, and Enoch Cheeks all exhausted their eligibility while Malachi Smith transferred to UConn. While that's a lot of experience and production gone, I think it's a good thing. The guards were too small to coexist. You can maybe have one or two of those guys, but only Smith could be counted on to get to the rim and he was poor (50.0% ATR FG%) when he got there. Key and Santos were both fine offensive players, but were ball stoppers on the offensive end and poor defenders who didn't compliment each other. This team just fits together so much better. Bennett isn't the creator Smith was, but he knows his best shots are taken beyond the arc and despite his size he's a better defender. Derkack and Montgomery can open up the court with their driving ability and are better finishing when they do get to the rim. Jones and L'Etang are a dynamic front court duo that can both score inside and out, create for others, protect the rim, and eat glass on both ends. This squad fits well together and definitely fits Grant's style better than last year's roster.
I also cannot enough stress how much I'm buying into the Amaël L'Etang breakout. Grant has turned big men like Obi Toppin and DaRon Holmes into stars and L'Etang looks like he's next. His efficiency (114.9), usage rate (21.8%), rebounding (9.6 OR%/20.3 DR%), block rate (6.9%), and inside-out scoring ability (33.9 3PFG%/68.3 ATR 2PFG%) is the exact skillset Grant can use to create a star. His 7'1" length makes him an intriguing NBA prospect. This team has the overall roster balance and upside to earn an NCAA at-large bid and I fully expect L'Etang to be at the heart of that push.
What We've Learned
The Flyers come in with a 3-1 record, notching three guarantee game wins over Canisius, UMBC, and Bethune-Cookman while dropping a road tilt at Cincinnati. Despite the record, they have failed to cover in their last three, indicating a less efficient team than expected. The Flyers have thrived offensively with drives and cuts to the rim, converting 66.7% of their attempts at the rim. The problem offensively is they are taking 41.1% of their shots from three and converting on just 28.4% (#284 nationally) of them. Further, Dayton is reliant on getting to the free throw line. They made 9 more free throws (19) than UMBC attempted in a 6-point win and made 11 more free throws (26) than Bethune-Cookman attempted in a 9-point win. Thus far, it's pounding the paint and getting to the line that has driven Dayton wins.
Shot Chart from cbbanalytics.com
Three-point shooting has killed Dayton on both ends. While they aren't making them on the offensive end, their opponents are shooting 40.5% (#332 nationally) from deep. Cincy scorched them with 9/19 long-range shooting. The Flyers' interior combination of Amaël L'Etang, Keonte Jones, and Jacob Conner has provided solid rim protection while their perimeter defenders have been elite creating turnovers. The overhauled roster puts a lot of pressure on opposing ball-handlers. The best ways to beat Dayton are protecting the ball and making shots from deep.
Marquette Connection
Once upon a time, Marquette dominated Dayton. That hasn't been the case since 1998, with Dayton winning six of the last seven, including last year's comeback win at UD Arena. The lone win in that stretch was led by Marquette legend Dwyane Wade on December 5, 2001. Wade scored 17 points and added 7 rebounds to pace the Golden Eagles. It was Marquette's eighth win of Wade's first season en route to a 10-0 start and eventual NCAA Tournament bid in 2002.
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