UW-Madison Preview, 2025-26

UW-Madison Badgers

December 6th, 2025 at Kohl Center, Madison, WI

Head Coach: Greg Gard

Three-Year NET Average: 38.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 30.0

Projected 2025-26 T-Rank: 30

UWM's John Blackwell has All-American potential

Photo by Ellen Schmidt | AP Photo

State of the Program

Most picked Wisconsin near the back of the Big 10 last year, but Cracked Sidewalks accurately predicted despite transfer losses the team as a whole could be better than the year before (#12 in kenpom, #17 in 2023-24). While there may have been question marks around Greg Gard's tenure a couple years ago, he has established his program as a fixture in the top half of the Big 10 and is arguably the second best coach in UW-Madison basketball history. He's earned a single-digit NCAA seed in seven of his ten seasons in Madison and would've had an eighth had the 2020 tournament occurred. Gard has started adapting his tempo to his teams, showing a willingness to play at a faster pace than his mentor Bo Ryan ever did and has embraced the transfer portal that Bucky once famously avoided. This may not be the Badger program that Bo Ryan led in his later years, but the state of Madison basketball is certainly healthy.

Rotation

Nick Boyd had the ball in his hands more, created more shots, and drove into traffic to draw fouls more at San Diego State than he ever did in three years at Florida Atlantic, but that added usage and minutes led to a decrease in efficiency. He should benefit from a reduced workload. John Blackwell will likely slide over to the John Tonje role of carrying the offensive load. He's basically Tonje-light, not quite as good a shooter, inside scorer, or contact creator, but effective at all three. If Blackwell can take another step forward, however, he'll be in the Big 10 first-team and All-American conversations. Andrew Rohde joins from Virginia after a mixed couple years as a Cavalier. He's a great secondary shot creator who was a knockdown shooter from range last year at 41.3%, but for his career is just 33.2% so it remains to be seen if he can keep that up. Portland transfer Austin Rapp gives the Badgers needed size but I'm skeptical how well he'll translate to the Big 10. He had mediocre efficiency in a much weaker West Coast Conference and really struggled in the Pilots' tougher games. The Badgers might have to play small at times as he acclimates to the step up in competition. Nolan Winter shouldn't have any such issues. His 7-foot frame will allow him to slide from the 4 to the 5 and he should replace Steven Crowl competently. Winter is an ultra-high efficiency player who can score inside and out and rebounds on both ends at a high level. He's a great breakout candidate and could be the next Badger big to garner national acclaim. The bench is where Bucky has some question marks. Braeden Carrington and Jack Janicki have D1 experience but haven't been overly effective early in their careers. Zach Kinziger and Will Garlock are local products with potential, but it seems unlikely either are ready to make an instant impact. Gard typically runs a short bench and this year doesn't look like it will be an exception to that.

Style of Play

Marquette fans are familiar with the Swing. It focuses on ball movement, feeding the paint, and either scoring or kicking out for an open look deep into the shot clock. Last year the offensive creation shift from AJ Storr/Chucky Hepburn to John Tonje/John Blackwell meant there was less driving, more pull-up jumpers, and more pick-and-pop because of the dual Crowl/Winter big man three-point threat. Nick Boyd is in a similar mold to Tonje and Blackwell, so expect the diminished paint touches to continue. This team will continue to move the ball, but will create at the perimeter and when they do go to the rim it will largely be off back door cuts from perimeter players. Last year was the fastest tempo Gard played at in his career and that will likely decline, but not to the glacial speed they played at in the Bo Ryan days.

UWM's defense struggled containing players going left, as Kam Jones showed

Shot Chart from CBBAnalytics.com

The Badgers play a rigid man-to-man defense that allows their bigs to extend to the perimeter to create mismatches, but also requires big men that can play drop coverage to protect the paint. Their ball pressure is designed to slow the offense down rather than forcing turnovers. Drop coverage teams tend to be vulnerable to offensive rebounds, but Gard's teams have remained solid on that end. This is because the Badgers still run two-big lineups so they when they retreat to the rim they do so in numbers, and because their bigs can typically shoot from long range this doesn't put them at an offensive disadvantage. The question this year will be personnel. Boyd and Rapp seem to be roughly average defenders while Rohde historically has been a poor defender. This could put a lot of pressure on Blackwell and Winter as the experienced players to lead the defense.

2025-26 Outlook

Offensively, Wisconsin should be fine. They will put five players on the floor who can score both inside and out, and Gard's sense of adjusting tempo to his roster coupled with solid foundations of ball and player movement should lead to another prolific offense (top-40 four of the last six seasons, top-20 each of the last two). I do think the defense will take a step back, however. The lack of roster continuity coupled with less athletic options (Tonje to Rohde, Crowl to Rapp) that aren't schooled in the system makes a decline feel likely. The Badgers will still be good. Expect a team that earns a single-digit NCAA seed and on their best nights can compete with anyone, but less consistent than Gard's best teams and unlikely to be competing for a protected seed.

Marquette Connection

Andrew Rohde's ties to Marquette aren't limited to this game. Rohde played alongside Marquette grad 
David Joplin for the Brookfield Central team that won the 2019 Wisconsin Division 1 State Championship. The Lancers defeated Sun Prairie 69-52, led by Joplin's 23 points and 13 rebounds. Rohde also started as a freshman, chipping in 3 points and 3 rebounds.

David Joplin with his arm around Andrew Rohde, celebrating their State Championship

Photo from elmbrookschools.org