KGSB Panther at the Panther Lair message board has calculated the odds of each team's chances of winning the Big East title using methodology popularized in basketball circles by statistician extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy.
Using the "log5 methodology" to determine odds of advancing in the Big East tournament, MU has an 87.3% chance of getting to a round two rematch with the Panthers, a 32.28% chance of winning that game, a 15.5% chance at reaching the finals, and a 5.74% chance of winning it all.
Despite being seeded behind #5 Syracuse, MU appears to have a significant statistical edge in its first round game. The Orange are projected to have only a 54.2% chance of surviving UConn. #9 Villanova (66.1%) and #7 WVU (62.5%) are given a better chance of getting to round 2 than Syracuse.
Georgetown is favored to win the championship, with a 34.2% chance, followed by #3 seed Pittsburgh with a 20.0% chance.
St. Johns has a 0.01% chance of winning the championship.
Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame and Louisville have a 100% probability of surviving to round 2, completely understandable given that they face no first round opposition.
Visit Pomeroy's blog to see the WCC (Gonzaga favored with a 63.6% chance) , Colonial (42.5% shot for Old Dominion) and MidCon (Oral Roberts with a 47.7%).
Hey, thanks for posting this.
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to let you know that I'll have a final version computed tomorrow, so that we can properly account for L'ville and SJU winning today (and SJU's "home court" advantage). I don't believe the pecking order will change, but - and this directly concerns MU fans - SJU will probably gain 2-3 percentage points by tomorrow.
Regards,
Mihai / KGSB Panther