Friday, March 09, 2012

NCAA

The following is a very rough scale of the potential for NCAA runs by teams that could still make the tournament. The scales are explained below the table, but basically a 34 or higher would be teams likely to win a game (technically 2nd round after Dayton), 38 or higher would be Sweet 16 teams, and 42 or higher would be Elite 8 teams.

Part of this is based on each team's top 3 players, which you can find for each player by clicking here, but this is NOT a precise measurement like VALUE ADD, just a rough feel of how tough an opponent might be. (91 teams on this list as of Noon CST Saturday, teams will be dropped as eliminated. Also "SH" added by teams that are missing one of their 7 most productive players, and they lost points on the Hot/Inj column.)



SeedTeam (SH=short-handed)ConfSeasonTalent top 3Exp. GuardsHot or InjTotal
14AkronMAC1065425
9Alabama (SH)SEC1554226
18ArizonaP121256528
3BaylorB121798337
14BelmontASun16410838
19Bethune CookmanMEAC11068
12Brigham YoungWCC1235222
10CaliforniaP121685433
8CincinnatiBE15571037
19ColoradoP12959528
11Colorado St.MWC1046828
9ConnecticutBE14102632
6CreightonMVC14610333
14DavidsonSC1146526
17DaytonA101267732
15DetroitHorz665926
12DrexelCAA1345628
2DukeACC17104738
5Florida (SH)SEC16108236
4Florida St.ACC15910741
3GeorgetownBE1798741
7GonzagaWCC1575431
11HarvardIvy13410330
4Indiana (SH)B1018810440
17IonaMAAC1268632
8Iowa St. (SH)B121566633
1KansasB12191110545
8Kansas St.B121654530
1KentuckySEC20151844
16LamarSlnd749525
15LehighPat946625
11Long Beach St.BW1459533
15Long IslandNEC357520
18Louisiana St. (SH)SEC846220
19Louisiana TechWAC324817
5LouisvilleBE1577837
15Loyola MDMAAC543517
3MarquetteBE1687738
19MarshallCUSA1039527
19Massachusetts (SH)A10844319
19McNeese St.Slnd226717
8Memphis (SH)CUSA1784635
17Miami FLACC1467936
3MichiganB1016761039
2Michigan St.B1019109644
17MississippiSEC933823
13Mississippi St.SEC9119231
16Mississippi Valley St.SWAC119415
2MissouriB121886436
14MontanaBSky947727
6Murray St.OVC1367531
16NC AshevilleBSth5410726
13NevadaWAC854522
5Nevada Las VegasMWC15810235
7New MexicoMWC1765937
19New Mexico St.WAC1148831
16Norfolk St.MEAC237315
1North Carolina (SH)ACC19155746
17North Carolina St.ACC1398838
17Northwestern (SH)B101284327
6Notre DameBE14641034
19OhioMAC1046727
2Ohio St.B1019102536
18OregonP121146930
19Portland St.BSky339621
9PurdueB101699741
18Saint Joseph'sA101183628
7San Diego St.MWC1244525
13Seton HallBE1356428
13South Dakota St.Sum1217525
12South Florida (SH)BE1134826
10Southern MississippiCUSA1135423
19St. BonaventureA101254930
10St. LouisA101757736
7St. Mary's (SH)WCC1356125
1SyracuseBE18137543
5TempleA101459836
17Tennessee (SH)SEC1234928
13TexasB121584532
19Texas SouthernSWAC126514
19UC Santa BarbaraBW857727
6VanderbiltSEC16129744
16VermontAE534719
9Virginia (SH)ACC1657230
11Virginia CommonwealthCAA1364629
12WashingtonP1211114733
10West Virginia (SH)BE1363224
16Western KentuckySB317718
4Wichita St.MVC18510740
4WisconsinB101877537
12XavierA101259430


The columns represent:

Seed – likely seed, with 17-19 meaning probably not in the tournament, but could still be picked or are alive in conference tournament.

Season (20 scale) = how well they have played for the whole season, with a .975 or better in Pomeroy = a “20,” and on down to 0.

Talent (15 scale) = It usually takes at least 3 stars to make a deep run, so this is an average of each team’s top 3 players. A 12 = a likely 1st rounder, 10 = a likely 2nd rounder, 8 = a likely 2013 NBA pick, and other players get their Value Add. Kentucky and UNC get a 15 since they have more than three 1st rounders and several other NBA players, and Syracuse gets a 13 for having more than three.

Experienced Guards (10 scale) = a starting point guard is a 6 for being a senior, 4 for being a junior and 2 for a sophomore, while the shooting guard adds 3, 2, 1 and a third senior ball handler can get a team a total of 10.

Hot (10 scale) = A team can be as high as a red hot 10 if their Pomeroy rating has been shooting up for the last 10 or 12 games or an ice cold 0 if they have been plummeting for that long. Record is just part of being hot or cold, as a team can be 5-5 and hot if they have been battling top 50 teams on the road, or cold if they are 8-2 in close games against non-top 200 teams.

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