Friday, February 05, 2016

Fischer, JJJ or Cheatham Could Join Ellenson in NBA to keep MU in Top 15 NBA Factories

Value Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.

In the days ahead we will be updating the historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:

Average Player Performance 2003-2016OR%DR%Blk%Stl%FTRate2-pt %
1500 top players who did not make NBA3.4611.100.862.2336.3547%
Possible players6.9714.833.171.8242.3751%
Future NBA average7.0814.743.082.1742.0951%
NBA Center11.6219.816.861.6151.6555%
NBA PF9.6017.953.991.8344.1153%
NBA PG2.809.570.762.7639.4248%
NBA SF7.0114.802.662.0938.9051%
NBA SG4.6811.911.362.5436.9149%

The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.

MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.

As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.

College YrNBA Last Year or %
Ellenson, Henry 13201691%
Fischer, Luke 40201635%
Johnson, JaJuan 23201621%
Cheatham, Haanif 25201616%
Total estimated 2016 team1.63
Fischer, Luke 40201535%
Johnson, JaJuan 23201521%
Total estimated 2015 team0.56
Crowder, Jae 3220122016
Butler, Jimmy 3320112016
Crowder, Jae 3220112016
Butler, Jimmy 3320102016
Butler, Jimmy 3320092016
Matthews, Wesley 2320092016
Matthews, Wesley 2320082016
Matthews, Wesley 2320072016
Novak, Steve20062016
Matthews, Wesley20062016
Novak, Steve20052016
Novak, Steve20042016
Wade, Dwyane20032016
Novak, Steve20032016
Blue, Vander 1320132015
Blue, Vander 220122015
Blue, Vander 220112015
Buycks, Dwight 2320112015
Buycks, Dwight 2320102015
McNeal, Jerel 2220092015
McNeal, Jerel 2220082015
McNeal, Jerel 2220072015
McNeal, Jerel20062015
Johnson-Odom, Darius 120122014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 120112014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 120102014
Hayward, Lazar 3220102013
Hayward, Lazar 3220092013
Hayward, Lazar 3220082013
Hayward, Lazar 3220072013
Diener, Travis20052010
Diener, Travis20042010
Diener, Travis20032010
Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season

Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.

While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.

The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.

RnkSchool since 2003Future NBA/YearTotal
1Duke5.171.9
2Kansas4.968.1
3North Carolina4.766.4
4Kentucky4.766.3
5UCLA3.549.0
6Connecticut3.143.6
7Washington3.041.9
8Syracuse3.041.6
9Arizona3.041.4
10Michigan St.2.940.7
11Louisville2.838.5
12Memphis2.737.4
13Notre Dame2.535.5
14Florida2.535.5
15Marquette2.535.2
16Georgetown2.534.9
17Texas2.534.5
18Michigan2.433.4
19Gonzaga2.129.3
20Wisconsin2.027.4
21Georgia Tech1.926.8
22LSU1.825.4
23Oklahoma St.1.825.3
24Villanova1.824.7
25Florida St.1.824.6
26Maryland1.723.9
27Vanderbilt1.622.7
28Iowa St.1.622.0
29Colorado1.621.8
30Illinois1.521.5
31California1.521.0
32Virginia1.521.0
33Purdue1.420.3
34USC1.419.9
35Georgia1.419.6
36Tennessee1.419.3
37Indiana1.419.2
38North Carolina St.1.419.0
39Pittsburgh1.419.0
40Texas A and M1.318.1
41Arkansas1.317.9
42Missouri1.317.7
43Nevada1.217.0
44New Mexico1.217.0
45Miami FL1.216.9
46Stanford1.216.4
47Oregon1.116.0
48Alabama1.115.7
49Wake Forest1.115.4
50Ohio St.1.115.3

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