Saturday, December 23, 2017

MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.

The following table seeds the NCAA March Madness Field based on each team's current rating at www.kenpom.com adjusted by the Value Add rating of each player who is returning or lost for the season.

The first number is the current KenPom Rating. If a player who helps or hurts a team by at least 0.50 points is listed in this blog, then that total is reflected in the second "change" number, and after those two numbers are added together they are multiplied by .70 to estimate how many points each team is better or worse than average. Villanova calculates as 21.46 points better than the average team, which would leave them with a 1-seed.

Marquette and Butler actually calculate as the first two teams out of the tournament with Froling projecting to help the team by 1.21 points to make MU 9.91 points better than the average team in the country.


TeamKenPomChangePts above aveConfSeed
Villanova31.0221.46BE1
Michigan St.28.6319.79B101
North Carolina22.225.6419.25ACC1
Virginia27.1518.76ACC1
Duke26.3918.22ACC2
Arizona21.434.6117.98P122
Purdue25.7117.75B102
Kansas24.8417.14B122
Texas A&M24.2516.73SEC3
West Virginia22.5615.54B123
Clemson19.233.1515.42ACC3
Wichita St.22.3815.42Amer3
Cincinnati22.315.36Amer4
Texas Tech22.2915.35B124
Gonzaga21.7114.95WCC4
Miami FL21.5214.81ACC4
Seton Hall20.021.4814.80BE5
Oklahoma21.1914.58B125
Kentucky21.1814.58SEC5
Xavier21.0814.51BE5
Florida St.18.22.1814.02ACC6
Saint Mary's17.42.1713.45WCC6
Baylor18.331.1013.35B126
Arizona St.19.2513.23P126
SMU19.1413.15Amer7
TCU19.1413.15B127
Notre Dame19.0813.11ACC7
Arkansas19.0613.09SEC7
Louisville16.821.9812.91ACC8
Florida16.911.6412.74SEC8
Texas17.31.1212.64B128
Tennessee1812.35SEC8
Nevada17.8312.23MWC9
Creighton17.6612.11BE9
USC16.280.9411.80P129
St. Bonaventure11.685.4711.76A109
St. John's13.763.3411.72BE10
Michigan17.0411.68B1010
Maryland16.9711.63B1010
Virginia Tech16.5111.31ACC10
Houston15.7210.75Amer11
Auburn15.0210.26SEC11
Penn St.14.7710.09B1012-Dayton
Alabama13.271.4010.02SEC12-Dayton
Minnesota14.619.98B1012-Dayton
Kansas St.14.579.95B1212-Dayton
Northern Iowa6.974.918.06MVC11
Middle Tennessee10.437.05CUSA11
Vermont9.076.10AE12
College of Charleston4.384.686.09CAA12
Northern Kentucky8.425.64Horz13
UT Arlington8.235.51SB13
Bucknell6.021.374.92Pat13
South Dakota7.354.90Sum13
Portland St.3.323.434.48BSky14
New Mexico St.6.674.42WAC14
East Tennessee St.6.544.33SC14
Ohio1.355.174.32MAC14
Belmont5.623.68OVC15
Stephen F. Austin4.252.73Slnd15
Iona4.142.65MAAC15
Florida Gulf Coast2.31.732.57ASun15
Princeton4.022.56Ivy16
UC Santa Barbara3.392.12BW16
St. Francis PA-1.423.611.28NEC16-Dayton
UNC Asheville2.171.27BSth16-Dayton
Texas Southern-3.84-2.94SWAC16-Dayton
Hampton-8.5-6.20MEAC16-Dayton
Butler14.549.93BE1st 4 out
Marquette13.31.219.91BE1st 4 out
Ohio St.14.369.80B101st 4 out
UCF8.325.579.48Amer1st 4 out
Missouri13.849.44SECNext 4 out
Oregon13.89.41P12Next 4 out
Rhode Island13.219.00A10Next 4 out
Oklahoma St.13.6-0.618.84B12Next 4 out
Syracuse12.898.77ACC3rd 4 out
Providence10.571.848.44BE3rd 4 out
San Diego St.12.138.24MWC3rd 4 out
Georgia10.71.428.23SEC3rd 4 out

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