Pencils down!
Here are changes since this morning:
Here we go:
Marquette fans in Milwaukee were greeted this morning by a heap of snow falling on this most festive of days. We may not have had a White Christmas, but we certainly have a White Selection Sunday. Let's get a quick rundown of where things stand going into Selection Sunday.
The last 1-seed: I feel good about Florida here, even if they lose. I'll re-evaluate if Tennessee pulls it off, but Florida will have the better metrics and Q1+2 record regardless. If not, Florida is clearly the most dangerous 2-seed.
At Sixes & Sevens: There is certainly confusion and disorder at the end of the 6-seeds and start of the 7-seeds. It seems for the most part that Missouri, Kansas, UCLA, and Illinois are the root of that. I went with Missouri and Kansas on the 6-line because they have better top end wins and metric averages. I seem to be in the minority, but we'll see how it pans out. BYU is also a complication because depending on the order of the 3-seeds, they may not be able to play as a 6-seed. I'm projecting Wisconsin as Big 10 champs, which pushes them up to #10 overall and opens the door for BYU/Texas Tech in Wichita.
Marquette's Seed: Because of the metrics and the evolution of wins, I can't get Marquette higher than #29 overall, the top 8-seed. I'm prepared to be wrong because Marquette does have a 6-seed resume, but the top 7 lines are stronger than normal this year, which means everyone from the 6-line to the middle of the 8-line has a 6-seed resume or better. One more win and Marquette is probably a 6, but they didn't get it while other teams got just enough results to inch ahead. The Golden Eagles playing New Mexico in Auburn's Lexington pod has been in every scenario I've envisioned since yesterday morning.
Last Team In: I agonized over this last night and this morning. I was down to Xavier, UNC, and UC Irvine. The overall resume favors UC Irvine, the cleanest resume belongs to Xavier, and UNC has the best metrics. Ultimately, the UC Irvine loss to UCSD was one loss too many, which knocked them out (UCSD would've been an at-large). That left Xavier and UNC, and from Q1 record to wins over the field to best overall win, Xavier was the winner. I feel good about Xavier ahead of UNC, and felt good about them as my last team until Boise lost to Colorado State. That puts Boise back into the at-large field. They have a better resume average than Xavier, similar win away from home (Saint Mary's on a neutral), and six wins over the field to Xavier's three. For now, Boise State is my last team in.
Bid Thieves: George Mason (A-10) and UAB (American) remain as potential bid thieves. One winning would knock Boise State out, two would knock Indiana out as well. George Mason would slot in as a 12-seed, while UAB is likely a 13 or 14. Personally I'd love the bid thieves because it would take out the debate over the last two spots. I do think VCU would get in if GMU wins the A-10, likely heading to Dayton. Memphis would stay on the 8-line.
Surprise Exclusions: Teams that most everyone projects in that could be left out are Baylor and Vanderbilt. The Bears' 13-14 record in Q1-3 is uninspiring and while most of their losses are Q1A, they only have 1 win in that same quadrant. I've seen them as high as the 9-line, but they could be on the outside looking in. Vanderbilt has a great collection of wins, but their #331 NCSOS typically isn't good enough to get to Dayton. That alone could keep them out, especially because in terms of scheduling intent, teams like SEMO & Jackson State (both Q4) were projected to be even worse to start the season.
Surprise Inclusions: We covered the most likely bubble teams, but if someone's name shocks people by getting in, it's either Ohio State with their excellent collection of wins or UC Irvine. The Buckeyes have three wins over top-5 seeds (Maryland, Kentucky, Purdue) with the latter two away from home and three more Q1 wins away from home. UC Irvine set a record for the most road wins by a D1 team. While 10 were in Q3+4, they went 4-1 in true road games in Q1+2. That's impressive, and I'd be very happy to be wrong and see UC Irvine in the field.
Here's the updated S-Curve and bracket:
Photo by Jason Szenes | NY Post
The first 8 minutes against St. John's went about as well as Marquette could hope for. Kam Jones was cooking, the threes were falling, and the Golden Eagles raced out to a 24-9 lead. Then it all came apart as St. John's pulled back within 2 by halftime and overwhelmed Marquette in the second half. That result not only knocked Marquette out of the Big East Tournament, but coupled with Louisville's win over Clemson pushed them down to an 8-seed. It could also jeopardize Marquette's 50-week streak in the AP Top 25 (4th longest in the nation) but that won't impact their NCAA selection or seeding.
The bubble is also of interest. First, here are the potential bid thieves still remaining:
Mountain West - Boise State/Colorado State: A thief here is guaranteed, and they knocked UC Irvine out of our field late last night. Boise has been tentatively placed as the Mountain West champ, and is still a viable at-large candidate. Colorado State likely needs to win to take a spot. The biggest question is if the winner will be on the 11 or 12 line, which would determine if a play-in game goes to the 12-line.
Atlantic 10 - George Mason/St. Joseph's/Loyola-Chicago: Any of these would be unexpected, and at a glance VCU should be included. However, the Selection Committee could hold their #280 NCSOS against them. Would it matter that teams like Seton Hall (bad loss) and Miami were Q4 games that typically would not be expected that low? Unsure, but VCU winning is best for teams on the bubble.
American - North Texas/UAB/Tulane: Memphis is locked into the field, though have also fallen down the seed lists. Any of these teams winning would likely slot them to the 12/13 lines. Keep an eye on this one until the end, no one on the bubble will feel safe until the American is decided.
Big West - UC Irvine: This is where it gets interesting. If the Anteaters take the automatic bid, UC San Diego goes into the at-large pool with a 2-1 Q1 record, a win at Utah State, and 11-5 record in the first three quadrants. I think that would be enough to get them to Dayton, but it would be close. I'm pulling for 2-bid Big West, but it feels like a long shot.
So what about the teams hoping to get in? Here are quick thoughts batching the teams at the bottom.
Shock Miss Potential - Baylor/Vanderbilt: Baylor is 13-14 in Q1-2 with only 1 Q1A win. Vanderbilt has a respectable all-around resume, but a glaring #331 NCSOS is something the Selection Committee could leave out. I think these teams are in, but while it would surprise pundits, there is precedent for leaving them out.
Sweating on the Inside - San Diego State/Indiana/Xavier: I think SDSU's wins over Houston and Creighton get them in, but every metric is very bubbly. Indiana has good resume metrics, but 4-13 in Q1 isn't good at all. Oklahoma was the first team out last year at 4-12 in Q1, so Indiana being left out wouldn't be unprecedented, but it took five bid thieves to knock OU out. Xavier is hanging on by their fingertips. They edge out North Carolina in Q1 and not having any bad losses, but bubbly metrics and a UConn win that is teetering on Q1/Q2 could be the deciding factor. If anything, this is clear evidence to do away with the Quadrant system.
Banging on the Window - UC Irvine/North Carolina: UC Irvine can remove doubt by winning today. Their 15-5 Q1-3 record and NCAA record 14 road wins are strong indicators, but UNC's metric superiority and the presence of Bubba Cunningham as Selection Committee chair could come into play. Colorado State could be in the mix, but I think they need to win their way in.
Unprecedented Either Way - Texas: No team that is more than 1 game under .500 in Q1-3 has ever made the tournament, and Texas is 12-15. No team with 7 Q1 wins has ever been left out of the field, and Texas has that. I think the shrinking bubble keeps them out, but they have a slim shot.
Here's our updated S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 4
ACC: 3
WCC: 2
Photo by Mike de Sisti | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Selection Sunday is just days away, which means we will soon know where Marquette is going and who they will be matching up with in the NCAA Tournament. So much of March success is about matchups, which is why today we are going to look at potential first and second round opponents for Marquette to see who we hope to see and hope to avoid in the opening weekend.
First, we need to assess Marquette's strengths and weaknesses. I used a combination of kenpom, CBB Analytics, Haslametrics, and Synergy Sports to determine places Marquette can take advantage of opponents on offense and defense as well as places opponents can exploit Marquette.
Marquette Offense: Marquette's drive to get to the rim pays off as they are one of the best teams in the country when they get there. They are also very good at pick & pop plays, largely highlighted by Ben Gold's tendency to pop off of screens. In transition, they get a heavy dose of chances and are lethal when they are on the run. There are negatives as well. Marquette is miserable against zone. And while their 3PFG% conversion rate is just below average, the high frequency of three point attempts makes this a weakness, especially against teams that let them shoot those shots they are poor at converting on. Haslametrics notes Marquette performs poorly against teams that deny second chance points, largely because while they are decent on the offensive glass, they are terrible at putting those rebounds back through the hoop.
Marquette Defense: Marquette's pick and roll familiarity pays off with high efficiency defending those plays. They also excel at forcing turnovers and converting them into points, which is related to the offensive transition numbers. Marquette is also very good in isolation, which is good because it's a frequent means of attack for opposing teams. Where Marquette struggles is on cuts to the rim as well as defending off screens. Marquette can also be beat on the boards as teams are good at getting second chances and better at converting them.
We currently expect Marquette to land as either a 6-seed or 7-seed and will base our opponent expectations on those seed lines. Most of these evaluations will be based on Synergy percentiles, which means the higher the number the better the team is in that particular area.
Opening Round Opponents
11-Seed Dream - Indiana: Offensively, Marquette would likely gash Indiana at the rim (53%) and in transition (19%). They are average rebounding on both ends, so this isn't an area they would really be able to exploit. Indiana runs a lot of pick & roll ball handler (74%) but are terrible at executing it (7%). They're also an even worse shooting team than Marquette. One thing that jumped out is that while they don't use a lot of zone (3.9% of defensive possessions) they used zone on 42/66 possessions in their upset win at Michigan State. But overall, this is a team where the matchups would really favor Marquette.
11-Seed Nightmare - VCU: Defensively, what Marquette wants to do is exactly what VCU is best at taking away. They are in the 99th percentile of at the rim defense, they defend well off screens, and they are great denying second chances. While I do think Marquette could turn VCU over, their other strengths don't really play into what VCU is best at. The Rams are good at cuts and excellent coming off screens, both of which would be problematic. Add in a pair of high-major caliber scorers in Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga and the Rams will be a tough out. Not to mention all the extra attention that will come with a Shaka vs VCU matchup.
Photo by Tim Aylen | AP Photo
10-Seed Dream - Oklahoma: This is a team Marquette should feast on. They are awful defending at the rim (9%), not particularly good in transition (43%), and turn the ball over a lot (Ranked 202nd). They don't run much zone and are poor defending putbacks. On the other end, pick and roll ball handler is their second most frequent play type but they execute poorly (11%) and they run heavy isolation (96% usage) with mediocre effectiveness (43%). They're also a poor cutting team (12%) and on put back attempts (26%) so they don't seem suited to take advantage of Marquette's weaknesses. While the individual talent of guys like Jeremiah Fears and Duke Miles is impressive, this is a team Marquette should handle.
10-Seed Nightmare - Utah State: Defensively this team is trouble. They primarily run zone, which will immediately make things more difficult for Marquette. They aren't great guarding the paint but do very well keeping teams out of it (7% frequency). They rate out as excellent guarding transition (89%), off screens (94%), and pick and roll ball handler (91%). Offensively, they are don't use much pick and roll ball handler (22% frequency) or iso (27%) and have the best turnover rate on the 10-line (ranked #87). They are great on cuts (99%) and good off screens (75%) and put backs (96%). Basically, the things Marquette would exploit they don't do frequently, and the things Marquette does poorly they are great at. Historically Mountain West teams don't fare well in the tournament, but I'm not sure Marquette wants to test that trend.
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Second Round Opponents
2-Seed Dream - Alabama: Take this with the caveat that playing any 2-seed isn't ideal, but what Marquette does well is suited to beat the Crimson Tide. They're the worst 2-seed defending the rim defending in transition (62% in both). They didn't run a single possession of zone this year per Synergy, don't chase teams off the line, and are abysmal on offensive putbacks (6%). Offensively, they're good-not-great on cuts (74%), off screens (59%), and on putbacks (53%) so they aren't going to massively exploit Marquette's weaknesses. While they are a good P&R team (89th), they turn it over a lot (Ranked 167th) while not turning opponents over at all (350th) so this is a team Marquette should have a possession edge over. Add in the marquee matchup of Kam Jones vs Mark Sears and I would like Marquette's chances.
2-Seed Nightmare - Tennessee: The Vols have an elite rim defense (98%) and are good guarding off screens (73%) and transition (69%). They don't chase teams off the line but are great at shutting down three point shooters (#2 rank 3PFG% D). Offensively, they are a great cutting team (86%). And while it wasn't one of our focuses above, they are also elite on baseline out-of-bounds plays (93%) which is another weakness for Marquette (9%) as anyone who watched the Dayton game will remember.
Photo by Erik Williams | USA Today Sports
3-Seed Dream - Kentucky: The Wildcats are poor defending the rim (32%) and in transition (25%). While they run a little zone, they are 1-5 in games where they play 5+ zone possessions and their zone efficiency (2%) is woeful. And while it's not as prevalent as it was with Tyler Kolek, Kentucky's defense saw more pick and roll ball handler than any other play type and were miserable (5%) defending it, which is still a place Marquette excels (90%). Offensively, they would pose problems as it would be strength on strength with their offensive pick and roll (92%) and isolation (92%), while they are a great cutting team (100%). Kentucky doesn't turn it over a ton (Ranked #37) but were 1-4 in games where they turned over 19.2+% possessions, something Marquette did in 20/31 games.
3-Seed Nightmare - Texas A&M: This would be another game that fans thought was planned by the Selection Committee. The Aggies are great defending the rim (88%), pick & pop (86%), and mix in a lot of zone (79%) with very good results (84%). Offensively, it all really comes down to rebounding. Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebound rate and second change points according to Haslametrics. They wouldn't beat Marquette with skill, but their physicality is like St. John's on steroids. It would also be a particularly bitter pill to come up short against Buzz Williams. Marquette would have to turn A&M over, turn up the pace, and turn this into a shooting contest.
14/15-Seed Dream - Anyone: While it wouldn't be unheard of for a 14-seed or 15-seed to win, any of these are preferable to anyone above. If Marquette gets to the second round against a lower seeded team, that's a dream under any circumstance.
Let's look at the updated S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 3
Mountain West: 3
Big West: 2
WCC: 2
Photo by Marco Garcia | AP Photo
We have made it to Championship Week, and while it might not be the week to watch that Marquette fans were expecting in January, there's still a lot to pay attention to. Today will just be a quick hit to update the seed list and explain the six groupings of teams we are looking at. We'll go a bit deeper on the third grouping, which is where Marquette is located.
First Grouping - The 1-Seed Contenders: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State
The first four currently sit in 1-seed position. Auburn and Duke are pretty well cemented here. Houston and Florida are solid, but Alabama or Tennessee can make a case with an SEC Tournament title, while it would be hard to imagine a Big 10 regular season and tournament champ not being on the 1-line. None of these teams will be below a 2-seed.
Second Grouping - Protected Seed Contenders: St. John's, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Clemson, Oregon, Arizona, Saint Mary's
I feel confident about the St. John's through Wisconsin group likely being protected seeds. One of those Big 10 teams might fall out, but they are in good shape. Clemson and Oregon are very close for the last 4-seed, with Clemson having the edge metrically over Oregon's overall wins. Arizona and Saint Mary's are a stretch in this group, but too good to be in the next group.
Third Grouping - The Middle Seeds: Michigan, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Louisville, Ole Miss, Kansas, Marquette, Missouri, Memphis, Mississippi State
This group has fluctuated a little, but the 20-30 spots have been the hardest to sort out over the past 7-10 days. A tournament title could put any of these teams into the mix to climb into the battle for the last 4-seed, while a loss could have them dropping to an 8 or even a 9. I expect game through Friday to hold weight here because the resumes are so close. We'll look ahead at each of these teams further down this page so you know when to tune in for Marquette fans trying to figure out their seed in real time.
Fourth Grouping - Should Be In: UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Drake
Obviously Drake is in, but they round out this group of teams from a seeding perspective. These are primarily the 8-10 seeds that should feel confident they will hear their names on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is probably the most difficult to figure out here, as they have 11-seed resume metrics and 3-seed predictive metrics. The WCC finishes early, so if they can get the title it might push them as high as a 6 or 7. I do think they are in regardless, but I wouldn't advise losing their opener to test the Selection Committee. For Marquette, a UConn/Creighton Big East Tournament title would be a bad thing. Right now the non-con wins have Marquette clearly grouped ahead of the other Big East teams here, but if they are drawn into a direct comparison, Creighton being the outright #2 with so a double-round-robin to compare and UConn having the sweep of Marquette could have either of those teams jumping up ahead of the Golden Eagles.
Fifth Grouping - Bid Thief Watchers: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana, San Diego State, Xavier, UC San Diego, Baylor, UC Irvine
This past weekend really cleared up the bubble picture. These teams are in, but those last three in particular (four if SDSU loses to Boise) should be watching for bid thieves. These are teams that have generally overcome fatal flaws and have enough to be in. I don't think these teams will automatically fall out with an early loss, but a loss and a bid thief could push any of them (especially the Dayton-bound) out of the field. In the Big West, UC San Diego has the better bubble case than UC Irvine because of their win over Utah State, so for that to be a 2-bid league the most likely scenario is Irvine beating UCSD in the title game.
Sixth Grouping - On Life Support: North Carolina, Boise State, Wake Forest, Dayton
I have a hard time seeing any of these teams getting in, but if some of the teams in the fifth grouping lose early and there aren't many bid thieves, these are the teams with the best cases to sneak into Dayton. UNC and Wake will likely have a play-out game on Thursday with the winner needing to beat Duke to have any shot of an at-large. Boise gets SDSU in a game that could flip the two Mountain West schools. Dayton has been hanging at the edge of the bubble but the big non-con wins might get them back in the mix if they can add a couple wins and get chaos ahead of them. Anyone not listed here likely needs to win a conference tournament to hear their name.
Here's a quick look at the next games for the teams in the third grouping:
Michigan vs Purdue/Rutgers/USC - Friday, March 14: Michigan needs a couple wins to have any hope of getting back to the 4-line. They haven't played well of late, but if they get a win over Purdue it would likely secure them on the 5-line barring someone from behind making a big run.
UCLA vs Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa - Friday, March 14: The Bruins have been strong since their 4-game swoon in early January. Their top end wins are excellent but the 5-line is probably their ceiling because of the late title game.
BYU vs Iowa State/Oklahoma State/Cincinnati - Thursday, March 13: BYU has rocketed up the seed list of late. They might have the best case in this grouping to be able to get to the 4-line with a tournament title because their path would likely include Iowa State, Houston, and another team in the field while also wrapping up by Saturday night. Their seed could come down to location as they need to open play in Providence, Lexington, Wichita, or Denver while playing in the East or West regions.
Illinois vs Iowa/Ohio State - Thursday, March 13: Which Illinois team will show up in Indianapolis? They could win the whole thing and likely push for a 5-seed or possibly back end 4, or could drop their first game and crack the door for Ohio State (if they are alive) to crawl back into the field.
Louisville vs Stanford/Virginia Tech/Cal - Thursday, March 13: Louisville won't move the dial on Thursday, needing to beat Clemson and/or Duke to really help their case. Despite the gaudy record, the lack of resume wins in the ACC has them looking destined for the 6/7 lines.
Ole Miss vs Arkansas/South Carolina - Thursday, March 13: For Ole Miss to move the needle they need to win at least two games, which would include Auburn on Friday. That feels unlikely. I feel safe pencilling them in as a 7-seed, as their destiny seems to rely more on the teams around them than themselves.
Kansas vs Utah/UCF - Wednesday, March 12: The Jayhawks win over Arizona stopped the bleeding, but they'll need to win their opener and beat Arizona again to have any shot at moving up further. It feels like a 6-seed is their ceiling unless they win the Big 12 Tournament.
Marquette vs Xavier - Thursday, March 13: It will be a desperate Musketeers squad that lines up Thursday night as they are 2 bid thieves removed from being on the outside looking in. If Marquette can win Thursday and Friday, they should be safely on the 6-line, with a 5-seed still possible. Barring some collapse further up the bracket, I don't see them getting back to the protected seeds. On the other end, a loss could see Marquette end up in an 8/9 game, though most likely still wearing home whites in the opener.
Missouri vs Mississippi St/LSU - Thursday, March 13: If Mississippi State beats LSU, that sets up the only Middle vs Middle battle currently on our slate. Mizzou's wins have them on the 7-line ahead of Mississippi State, but if one of these teams can win and then beat Florida, they could jump up 1-2 lines. I can't imagine much after that mattering with the SEC not wrapping their tournament until Sunday.
Memphis vs South Florida/Wichita State - Friday, March 14: Tiger fans won't like seeing themselves on the 8-line, but their wins have lost some luster and three Q3 losses is more outside Q1+2 than any team in the running for a single-digit seed. This is one of the hardest teams to seed as they have 5-seed resume metrics and 13-seed predictive metrics. They get bumped up a bit because of their Q1 record (6-1) and counting as AAC champs, but this is a team that could land anywhere from the 5-10 seed lines because of their bizarre resume.
Here's our current seed list:
Welp, it wasn't the regular season ending we wanted for #mubb and it's been a long time since we've been daggered like that. We're back to talk about the last week of the regular season and just kind of sort out our feelings. We also talk about where the team is at overall and what hope/fears we have for the win or go home portion of the season. We chat about the Big East tournament and what we can expect from there before turning to the NCAA tournament and touching on seeding and match ups. Now it's time for everyone to get serious. Enjoy!
https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/hc29ndu5nrmvee4j/Eggs_2025_March_9_FSJU6tdbu.mp3
Photo by Robert Willett | Raleigh News & Observer
Today our focus will again be on the bubble. After a week of reviewing resumes and considering what the Selection Committee will likely prioritize, we have made some major bubble changes. Many are the unfortunate type because some teams we'd like to see in the field (Boise State, UC Irvine) just might not have enough polish on their resumes, while other teams we'd rather not see in (North Carolina, Oklahoma) have some major advantages. Let's dig in.
Last Four Byes: 39-West Virginia, 40-Georgia, 41-Indiana, 42-San Diego State
Currently, our last at-large team comes in at #47 on the S-Curve, which means any resume metric inside the top-47 meets at-large qualification. Collectively, these four teams have 11/12 resume metrics inside the top-47, with only Indiana's SOR (49) on the outside. All of them have at least .500 records in Quadrants 1-3 with at least 3 Q1 wins and 1 Q1A win. For whatever Bracket Matrix is worth, they also all show up in at least 87/92 brackets there as of this writing. If there are bid thieves, these teams could end up in trouble, but for the moment they look fairly safe.
Last Four In: 44-Arkansas, 45-North Carolina, 46-Oklahoma, 47-Xavier
Collectively, these four teams have 10/12 resume metrics inside the top-47. The outlier is KPI for both North Carolina (50) and Xavier (59). Arkansas and Oklahoma are the two safest for selection. While Oklahoma gets knocked for their 5-12 SEC record and 1 road win, those aren't official criteria and their 13-0 non-con record along with 5 neutral court wins help offset those issues. Bracket Matrix is positive on both of these teams, with 85 including Arkansas and 66 including Oklahoma. Both also boast 5 Q1 wins and mulitple Q1A wins.
North Carolina and Xavier are a little different, mostly because of only having 1 Q1 win apiece. However, at the Top-16 reveal, we covered how SOR and WAB were the best predictors of seed, and both of these teams are inside the top-46 in those metrics. Further, they both have just 1 loss outside Q1, so while their Q1 records are poor, their winning overall records in Q1-3, solid resume metrics, and backing that up with predictive averages inside the top-40 give them enough to be selected. One other note for Xavier, they have 3 wins over projected non-bubble at-large teams (Marquette, Creighton, UConn). Bracket Matrix doesn't like these teams as much, with just 29 including Xavier and 20 including UNC, but these are the types of teams that the Selection Committee is more likely to take on historical precedent. Essentially, these teams have no fatal flaws and just enough to get them into Dayton.
First Four Out: Ohio State, Texas, Boise State, Wake Forest
Taking a step back and rethinking things, these teams definitely break into two clear categories. The fatal flaw of Q1-3 record is harmful for Ohio State (11-13) and Texas (10-13) despite having some great wins at the top of their resumes. They also both have 2/3 resume metrics outside the top-47. Ohio State is in 89/92 brackets, so it would surprise most if they are left out, but Texas shows up in just 17 on Bracket Matrix. If they win this weekend and in their conference tournament openers they might have a shot to get back in the mix, but for now they are on the outside looking in.
Boise State's biggest problem is all of their resume metrics are 52 or below. I love their wins over St. Mary's and Clemson, but I'm not sure the Committee will put them in because of those. Bracket Matrix has the Broncos in 34/92 brackets. If I were the one voting, the Broncos would be in, but in terms of predicting what the Selection Committee will do, I think they'll be out.
I was surprised Wake Forest landed this high in consideration. Having 2/3 resume metrics inside the top-47 helped. They also have a winning Q1-3 record and more Q1 wins than North Carolina or Xavier, but like UNC have just one win against a projected non-bubble at-large team. Wake is not in any of the Bracket Matrix entrants right now, but I think they still have a shot, though any bid thieves would likely end that chance. If it comes down to one win between UNC and Wake, the edge goes to UNC who is better in every team sheet metric than the Demon Deacons despite Wake's 1-point home win over the Tar Heels.
Also Considered: Nebraska, UC Irvine
We looked at more teams than these two, but these two tumbled the furthest so I wanted to address them. Nebraska is 11-13 in Q1-3, every team sheet metric is outside the top-47, and despite some nice quality wins, there just isn't enough good to outweigh the bad. They are 15-5 in Q1-3, have 1 Q1A win, and lead the nation with 13 road wins. However, WAB and SOR are both designed to equalize resumes and they are 54 or lower in each. Maybe their 43 KPI gives them a shot, but their predictive average (80.7) would be the second lowest ever included. Like Boise, I would vote for them, but based on historical precedent, I don't think the Committee will put them in without an automatic bid.
Bids Thieved: Gonzaga, VCU, Drake, UC San Diego
If we see these teams that are currently the NET leaders in their respective leagues lose in their conference tournaments, I feel good about the first three making it in. Gonzaga and Drake both have all resume metrics inside the top-47. From a seeding perspective, Gonzaga's predictive average (9.3) would push them higher up the seed line than Drake's (66.3) would but I think both of them have enough in terms of resume quality, Q1-3 records, and Q1 wins to get in. VCU has 2/3 resume metrics in the top-47 and with a 12-4 record in Q1-3 and strong predictives (28.7) I think they get in, though they might be sent to Dayton again. Ram fans may not object to that, given their history.
UC San Diego, on the other hand, I don't feel so good about. I moved them down to the 12-line today and I think if they fall in the Big West tournament, they will be in trouble. All 3 resume metrics are outside the top-47 and while they have the Q1-3 record and Q1 wins, this is the kind of team that tends to get left out. The other problem is if they lose again in the Big West Tournament, it won't be a Q1 game (UC Irvine is Q2). I strongly advise they win their automatic bid.
So that's the bubble. Here's what you can expect from Cracked Sidewalks in the next week as Selection Sunday draws closer:
March 10: Scrambled Eggs - Phil and Joe will wrap up the regular season and look ahead to the Big East Tournament.
March 12: Dreams & Nightmares - our annual piece that looks at which teams Marquette fans would most and least want to see in their pod come Selection Sunday. This piece accurately picked Vermont as a dream scenario in 2023 and Colorado as a nightmare (single possession game in the final minute).
March 15: Contingency Time - On the eve of Selection Sunday, most of the field will be set and most teams will be done playing. This should be pretty close to what our final projections will look like.
March 16: Selection Sunday - We'll provide a last update once we have a better sense of conference tournament champions, bid thieves, and any last minute changes the Selection Committee may take into account.
March 17: Scrambled Eggs: Phil and Joe are back to talk about the bracket and their expectations for the NCAA Tournament.
Here's the current S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 3
WCC: 2
Finally #mubb had a "normal" week. #ScrambledEggs is back to generally overview the week that was and talk about the challenges of the week to come. We chat about some of the performance against Providence and Georgetown and what it means for the rest of the season. We then chat about the UCONN and St Johns games from a basketball perspective. We also get a little misty eyed about senior day and the end of the regular season. Lastly we spend some time talking about seeding. As always, enjoy!
https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/eutbk9d5xzyuhxg7/Eggs_2025_March_2bvmyy.mp3
Photo by Nick Wass | AP Photo
As we unveil our first bracket of March, there are a number of conundrums that start at the top of the field and carry on all the way to the bubble. Today I'll talk my way through these decisions and the tilting points that made the difference. One note, I'm not including the NET of the teams compared, because we only use the NET as a grouping tool for the Quadrants.
The Final 1-Seed
In the final minute of Tennessee's comeback win against Alabama on Saturday, the announcers proclaimed that a 1-seed was on the line. While Auburn, Duke, and Houston seem very solid as 1-seeds at the moment, it's close between Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida for the last 1-seed. Let's look at the comparative resumes:
In the Quadrants, Alabama and Tennessee are tied with 10 wins, with the slight win percentage advantage to the Volunteers. But Alabama's 17 Quadrant 1+2 wins are more than either of the other two and second only to #1 overall seed Auburn. Alabama also leads in Q1A victories, while having the fewest games played in the bottom two quadrants, reinforcing their schedule strength. Looking at the best results, while both Alabama and Tennessee have 6 Q1 wins, Tennessee's three best wins come at home while Alabama has five Q1A wins away from home.
Despite yesterday's loss, Alabama remains on the top line, relegating Tennessee and Florida to the 2-line despite having resumes that are clearly worthy of 1-seeds.
The Final 2-Seed
As tough as the top line decision is, the fight for the last 2-seed is even closer. Michigan State is clearly deserving of the #7 overall seed, but their win over Wisconsin put the Badgers in a dogfight with St. John's, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. All of these teams look more like 3-seeds, but one of them has to land on the 2-line.
St. John's record jumps ahead of the rest. The Red Storm are level with Wisconsin in resume average while Texas Tech and Iowa State are far ahead in the predictive average. It's worth mentioning that during the Top-16 Reveal it was the resume average that was the better seed predictor than the predictive average. The overall metric average favors Wisconsin.
Looking at the Quadrants, a few things stand out. First, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Iowa State all have 6 Q1 wins, though Texas Tech having 5 in Q1A jumps off the page. St. John's lags behind here with 3 Q1 wins. However, it's the totality of the resume that matters. St. Johns' has no losses outside Q1 while the other three all have losses outside the top quadrant. The two that stood out the most were St. John's overall quality against Texas Tech's 5 Q1A wins.
So why do we have St. John's ahead of the Red Raiders? In 2023, we saw Marquette get a 2-seed as the Big East Champions despite having 3-seed metrics. St. John's is the only team here that has secured a league crown. That coupled with a better record and metrics than that Marquette team shows they have a 2-seed profile despite lagging in a few categories.
Marquette's Seed
The Golden Eagles come in at #21 overall, the first 6-seed. They land in between a pair of Big 10 teams in Oregon and Maryland. They represent the turn between the 5-seeds and 6-seeds, but are a good example of evaluating wildly different resumes.
Oregon's resume average leads the way but the Ducks lag significantly in the predictives. While the overall average for Marquette and Maryland are very close, Oregon's predictive disadvantage feels like a definite negative mark for them. However, they also have the most Q1 and Q1+2 wins and the best winning percentage in those quadrants. They also have more Q1A wins than the other two combined. Oregon's early season wins really stand out here and push them ahead. As with Alabama and St. John's, we're looking closely at the resume average and the comparison here would be teams like 2022 Wisconsin and Providence who were seeded higher than their overall metric average despite lagging predictive numbers.
So why does Marquette finish ahead of Maryland? These teams are very close. Marquette wins in resume average, Maryland wins in predictive. Maryland has one more Q1 win and one fewer Q2 loss, but the teams have the same 11-7 Q1+2 record and two Q1A wins. In terms of challenging themselves, Marquette's NCSOS stands out significantly. Comparing their best wins is where this is truly decided. Both teams beat Wisconsin at home. Maryland also notched a road win at Illinois while Marquette picked up a road win at...Maryland! I rarely like to use head-to-head because most teams in different conferences don't play each other, but when it's this close, they played head-to-head, and the road team won the game it's enough to tilt it in their favor.
Fatal Flaws & the Bubble
The quality on the bubble isn't close to what we see on the top seed lines, so we are first going to highlight some of the trends that have historically been disqualifying:
The problem this year is many teams have a fatal flaw, or multiple fatal flaws, and are still strongly in the mix for inclusion simply because you have to put 68 teams in the field. In addition, some teams with fatal flaws have so much quality in terms of wins that it's hard to leave them out even with their flaws considered. We'll start with the last six teams in the field and the reasoning behind their inclusion:
Next we'll move to the first five teams out. There are a couple other resumes I'm still looking at, but these felt like the most serious options. All of them have at least one fatal flaw and simply not enough quality in terms of their wins to overcome them.
Let's look at the full S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 12
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 4
ACC: 3
Big West: 2
WCC: 2
Photo by Ebony Cox | JS Online
With just three games left in the regular season, it would seem that Marquette's future is pretty well carved in stone. But looking at resumes over the past 24 hours, this year's bracket separates itself in some clear divides. In any other year, all of the top six teams would be 1-seeds. Michigan State has set themselves apart as a clear 2-seed, Wisconsin is a clear 3-seed (even though they land as a 2), but after that there were 11 teams that could be considered anywhere from the 3-5 lines, starting with #9 St. John's and going all the way to #19 St. Mary's.
Today, Marquette sits at #22 overall, ranked #23 in WAB and a predictive average of 24.7, landing as the second 6-seed on the S-Curve. They travel to Georgetown on March 1, to UConn on March 4, and host St. John's to close the season on March 8. Thanks to fellow Cracked Sidewalks contributor Rob Lowe, we ran 10,000 simulations of Marquette's last three games to determine the odds of every outcome, then extrapolated those into seed ranges and my best guess on where Marquette would land. First, here are the results:
Now let's talk through why I am guessing the seeds where they are:
0-3 (21-10): If Marquette were to lose out, I think they end up right on the cutoff between the 7/8 seeds, but currently there's a bit of a gap between those lines. With 5 Q1 wins banked and no bad losses possible, they likely stay on the high side of that cutoff, though if they also lose on Thursday in the Big East Tournament, I expect I'd have them as an 8-Seed come Selection Sunday. Using the Torvik Teamcast, this would give Marquette an expected WAB of 34 and predictive rank of 30, which lines up with an 8-seed, but their quality wins with no bad losses would likely push them ahead of other teams on that cutoff.
1-2 (22-9): The most likely win here would be Georgetown, which would add a Q2 win and two Q1 losses. Even if they lost at Georgetown and beat UConn or St. John's, the end result would likely be very similar in landing on the 6-line and staying about where we have them today. This would give them a WAB of 27 and predictive rank of 28, but again the quality wins and no bad losses would nudge Marquette up a little bit. This is really showing where the work done in November is paying off as wins over Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin have aged very well.
2-1 (23-8): This is the most likely scenario of the simulations and would likely add one win in both Q1 and Q2 with a Q1 loss. In today's bracket we considered Marquette for the last 5-seed but sheer volume of Q1 wins along with some great Q1A scalps gave the edge to Oregon. Metrically, this would give Marquette an expected WAB of 19 and predictive rank of 24.7. Getting a win at UConn or over St. John's would be enough of a dial mover to push them up a seed line.
3-0 (24-7): Winning all three is where you see the resume metrics really perk up. Marquette would have an expected WAB of 11 and predictive average of 24.0. While the predictives wouldn't necessarily take a jump, that's because the UConn and St. John's games are both projected to be within 2 points, so simply winning one more possession than projected could tilt the resume significantly while only marginally changing the predictive results.
Here are the extrapolated grids:
Historically, Championship Week hasn't meant much unless you either flame out very early or cut nets. I think Marquette's absolute floor at this point is an 8-seed, which means under most any circumstance they will be wearing home whites in the first round. I think their ceiling if they win out and win the Big East Tournament would be a 3-seed, but that will depend on what happens around them and how convincingly they win their games as the predictive metrics right now are not favorable to that seed line.
Here's the full S-Curve and bracket as of today:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 12
Big 10: 11
Big 12: 7
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 4
ACC: 3
Big West: 2
WCC: 2
