Is Marquette Unlucky?

The Marquette Warriors enter finals week with a perfect 9-0 record, and despite the winning streak this break in the action was perfectly timed.  After losing starting center Chris Otule for an indefinite period of time due to a knee injury he sustained in the Washinton game, the Ghosts of Tom Crean Tackling Dummies re-emerged at The Al, sending Juan Anderson (3-4 weeks, shoulder) and Jamil Wilson (day-to-day, ankle) into the infirmary. Just when fans were getting jazzed about the Warriors' prospects this season!  The news of the week prompted frequent guest contributor, Dr. Blackheart, to dance on the keyboard once more .... and now he asks, Is Marquette Unlucky?

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Jimmy Chones leaving for the ABA in the midst of an undefeated season…Dean Marquardt’s car accident… Bob “I Like to Watch” Dukiet losing star recruits to academics…Will Gates' blown out knee in “Hoop Dreams”…Travis Diener and the tackling dummy,…Jerel McNeil and the HIPPA finger…Trevor Mbwake, Dom James and the sinking feeling of the fans and the OrthoPods. And, now, in a matter of hours, the (possibly) torn ACL of our Defensive Stud Chris Otule, the shoulder of top rated freshman Juan Anderson, and the ankle of high potential Jamil Wilson. And, many more over the years.

“Why Marquette?” “Why always the big men?” ”Why Me?”… are the overriding fan questions ringing around our ears. How much bad luck can one fan absorb, never mind a diehard Cubs fan who is a Brewers season ticket holder, as dysfunctional as that is on the surface? In perhaps the best and earliest Marquette outlook in 30+ years, why do all the great feelings of the past week come to a crushing end? Isn’t it Marquette’s time, as ordained by our new President and AD?

The answer , of course, is “leave it to fate”. However, Pomeroy has a measure of “Luck” that, as a stat geek, I like to turn to in order to balance the emotional side of my brain with the rational. Pomeroy defines “Luck” as such: “The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.” In other Poemroy analyses, “Luck” is most correlated to “Experience”, and Buzz has experienced guards.

Lucky Number?

Over the past ten Pomeroy seasons, Marquette has been “Lucky” in only 3 of them, including this season to date, pre-injuries. Buzz, on the other hand, has been as unlucky as it gets. MU has set school and Big East records in the number of close games that his teams have played in. Yet, MU seems to always overachieve its talent and “Luck” at year’s end. However, to date, MU 2011 is Final Four” Lucky” with an exact rating of the DW3 year at the Triple Snake Eyes rank. Until Tuesday, MU was that “Lucky”! But, things change quickly as we know and MU is now as lucky  as .

So, Where Does This Lead Us Irrationales?

To drink? Maybe…but time seems to be on our side. MU is waiting the Otule ACL sprain out to see its severity, Juan’s shoulder is seen to put him out until only the start of the Big East season, and Jamil’s ankle seems to be chronic but day to day, pending recovery time and Xmas practice/therapy time. Meanwhile, MU beat one of the most talented and perhaps the season’s-end best Pac 10/12 teams in Washington, without Chris Otule. His replacement, Gardner, is an offensive dynamo in the limited minutes he can offer—Pomeroy Offensive Efficiency Rating for the Ox of 124.4 vs. CO’s 92.2. Anderson, while showing flashes and providing height depth, still has only seen a few minutes. Is this unlucky? Yes, with Chris’s defense but not with his O, so DG has time to work on his game extensively, while Juice gets his chance to showcase his skills. In the end, this provides minutes to those that Buzz has had no qualms about playing in the Out of Conference anyway, making MU a stronger season’s- end team, waiting for the hopeful return of the injured. LSU and Vandy will give MU height problems, but MU’s experience will carry the day into the Big East, as my irrational mind tells me as I wish upon on northern star. MU buries the tortured artist, Judeo-Christian, Martyr syndromes, and assumes its rightful place as #1 in the country (says a fingers-crossed Cubs fan in a full body cast, but looking good it his Man Uggs). Go MU (I hope)! Regardless, I am playing my lucky 19 and 77 at the Potto Bingo Boat, but I sure wish Andre Walker picked MU over Xavier right about now.

Chris Otule likely out for remainder of season

Heading into tonight's game against South Dakota the Marquette Warriors will be without 6'10" Chris Otule, who fractured his right foot in practice on Monday and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

The Otule injury leaves Marquette with just one player taller than 6"7" on the active roster in 7'2" freshman Yous Mbao. Otule joins freshman point guard Junior Cadougan on the sidelines this year. The injury-riddled Otule played in just nine games last season after injuring his left foot in mid-November.

Through the first three games of the season Otule showed clear improvement year-to-year, but it is difficult to gauge the impact of the injury since his minutes where fairly sparse at eight minutes per outing. Otule was averaging 3 points and two rebounds per game. In Otule's absence Buzz Williams will have little choice but to play 'small ball' with 6'6" freshman Jeronne Maymon likely to see more time on the floor.

Under NCAA rules Otule would qualify for a medical redshirt. Applying for the redshirt classification can only be made after the current season is completed.

All the best for a speedy recovery, Chris.

Good news for ...

Good news, for those of you who love loooong seasons.

It just got longer.

Todd Rosiak is reporting that Junior Cadougan ruptured his right Achilles’ tendon and will likely be out for the entire season.

With Darius Johnson-Odom also spraining a ligament in his left foot, he'll miss the next month as well.

That leaves Dwight Buycks, David Cubillan, and Maurice Acker, as the three true scholarship guards who aren't wounded.

And, don't forget Joe Fulce’s continued recovery from knee surgery, which leaves the Warriors with 9 healthy players.

Dominic James returns as MU takes on Mizzou

In case you missed the news overnight, senior point guard Dominic James has been cleared to play this afternoon against Missouri. Incredible. Rosiak broke the news from Boise -- apparently James even practiced with the team for 90 minutes.

Wow.

Nobody can expect James to be in peak physical condition or to control the game on both ends of the floor as much as he did when 100% healthy, but against a Missouri team that can go 11 deep the return of the most indispensable of the Three Amigos could not come at a better time. Bravo, Dominic and the MU medical staff. And hey, Pudner's faith in this team was strong before this news. Of course, we know Rob is optimistic this week.

Tipoff is scheduled for 3:50pm CDT today.

Now let's look at the numbers, starting with Missouri's strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths

1. Forcing turnovers – Missouri is #8 in the country. They force a turnover on one in every four possessions (25.6%). Mizzou forces a steal on almost 15% of all possessions. James' return could help off-set this strength.
2. Protecting the ball – Missouri is #12 in the country at protecting the ball. They only turn it over on 16.8% of all possessions.
3. Offensive effective Field Goal percentage – Missouri is #42 in the country at eFG%, where they have a percentage of 52.9%
4. They make the majority of their points from inside the paint (#29 in the country), where they make 52.5% of their shots
5. Defensive eFG% - Missouri is #53 in the country at defensive eFG%. Opponents only achieve an eFG% of 46.3%
6. Their perimeter defense is #23 in the country. Opponents only make 30.7% of three point shots

Weaknesses

1. Fouling – Missouri allows opponents to shoot a free throw rate (FTA / FGA) of 39.3%. This is #242 in the country. This is likely a distinct positive for MU.
2. Free throw shooting – Missouri only hits 66.8% of their free throw attempts (#242 in the country)
3. Defensive rebounding – Missouri is #229 in the country at defensive rebounding. Opponents achieve an OR% of 34% against them. MU will need to do even better than that to win.
   

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)

1. Make shots (eFG% of 55% or more). This is 30 FGM, or three more than our average. At our average, Marquette loses by four.
2. Stop them from making shots (eFG% of 47% or higher). This is 25 FGM, or one less than their average. Least efficient major contributors are JT Tiller (eFG% of 46.3%), Marcus Denmon (eFG% of 48.9%), Zaire Taylor (50.7%), and Leo Lyons (50.7%). Most efficient major contributors are Matt Lawrence (61.3%) and DeMarre Carroll (58.5%). Keep in mind that MU (potentially) adds its most potent defender to the lineup today.
   
3. Get offensive rebounds (OR% of 51% or higher). This is 19 offensive rebounds, or seven more than average. At season average, Marquette loses by eight.
4. Combining multiple Recommendations:

• Protect the ball (TO% of 14% or less). That’s 10 turnovers, or two less than averge
• Force turnovers (TO% of 30%). That’s 22 Missouri turnovers, which is eight more than they average.
• Prevent offensive rebounds (Tigers OR% of 18% for a Marquette victory). That’s 7 offensive rebounds, or six less than their average.
• Get to the Free Throw Line. A Free Throw Rate of 50% means Marquette only loses by six

Model conclusion (Bottom line)
In a fast paced game (73 possessions), Marquette is expected to lose the game by seven points (25% chance of victory). Of course, the model is skewed by MU's performance in the last several weeks without James, and to be fair there's no way to account for his return in the model since we don't know how effective he'll be.

The model predicts that MU will have a slight advantage on offensive rebounds and a modest advantage on free throw rate. Missouri is expected to win the game based on forcing Marquette into more turnovers than normal and by field goal percentage advantage -- but again, perhaps James mitigate the Tigers' effectiveness in these key areas. Today's game is predicted to be more defensively oriented with Marquette being held well under season average and Missouri doing okay offensively but not great.

Oh -- and one last thing about Dominic James........"Don't call it a comeback, I've been here for years."



*Joint post by Tim and Rob

Dominic James post-injury interview

The community over at MUScoop is eating this one up -- a three-part interview with Dominic James where the Marquette great discusses the injury, his playing career and this year's squad.

Here's the link to the interview.

Talk about it in the MUScoop thread.

Spiking the Kool-Aid

ESPN The Magazine says, "Don't count Marquette out just yet". Check it out right here.

Despite this loss, we still think Marquette has reason for hope. For one, UConn played one of their best offensive games in the last two years, and A.J. Price simply shot out of his mind. Not every week will Marquette run into such an opponent, and come the Madness, wouldn't have to stop a performance like that until a Saturday or Monday in April. More, the Marquette backcourt is still dynamic.

Need more Kool-Aid? Here's a nifty feature on McNeal and Acker.........backcourt mates since the 5th grade (more or less).

Need more? Signee Dwight Buycks scored 22 points leading his JUCO to a playoff victory.

2009 recruiting target Darius Smith was named first-team all public league in Chicago.

Luke Winn of CNNSI still has MU in his top 16. And he's a fan of Steve Rushin. Thanks, Luke

Smiles all around.



Oh......and Dominic James is having surgery today. All the best for a speedy recovery, DJ.


UPDATED
Andy Katz' latest podcast evaluates the impact of Dominic's injury on MU -- find the latest from Andy right here.

Chris Otule out one month with injury: UPDATED

We have just confirmed that freshman center Chris Otule will miss a month of action after sustaining an injury this week.

According to Mike Broeker, Deputy Director of Athletics at MU, the university will release more information later after speaking with the coaching staff, Otule and team doctors. (updated below)

With sophomore forward Joe Fulce already out until the end of December, the Otule injury leaves Marquette with few options on the baseline. Senior center Dwight Burke and sophomore Patrick Hazel are the only two healthy post players on the roster as the season opens tonight.

UPDATED

Moments ago (11:40am CT), Marquette sent out the following press release, providing more detail on this morning's developments:

November 14, 2008
For Immediate Release

Otule To Miss Significant Time Following Foot Injury

Freshman Center Expected To Contribute To MU’s Front Line

Milwaukee – Freshman center Chris Otule of the Marquette University men’s basketball team has been sidelined for several weeks after suffering an injury to his left foot in practice earlier this week.

Otule was injured when a teammate landed on his foot, causing a fracture in the metatarsal bone. He is expected to miss at least a month of game action due to the injury.

Otule is in his first season with the Golden Eagles and is the only true freshman on the roster. He is expected to provide valuable minutes in the team’s front line rotation in 2008-09.

--MU--

updated with MU press release

How healthy is Dominic James?

Perhaps he's not as healthy as we were led to believe yesterday in the Rosiak blog. Check this out from Todd Welter at 620 WTMJ.

I did notice a wrap or soft cast on his right wrist sort of similiar to what Fitzgerald and McNeal were wearing when they had their arm troubles (Fitzgerald left wrist & McNeal with that thumb injury last year).

.......visions of Dan Fitzgerald and Jerel McNeal's injuries......not so encouraging.

Did Dan Fitzgerald injure his left wrist?

The MU boards are buzzing about a rumored wrist injury to 6'8" senior Dan Fitzgerald. The rumor was first posted by MU_Freak on MUScoop yesterday. On the Marquette Hoops site, there is a similar thread with consistent information.

Nothing official from MU at this point.

BTW, UW-M moved tonight's game watching party from the Klotsche Center to the Union due to lack of interest. Remember, this is a game the fans want.

Milestones and Walkons

A couple hits for this morning:

Tonight, Dominic James stands at 991 points, and should hit his 1,000th point. When he hits that milestone, let's stand up and show him some love. He still has a ways to go to hit MU's top 25 scorers, but will be there right around when the Big East season begins. If DJ hits 15 ppg, he'll end the year inside the Top 15.

Todd Rosiak reports that with Mbakwe and Christopherson out, Crean is looking to add a walk-on or two to add bodies to the practice sessions.

So, if you see a 6'8+" guy walking around campus, could you direct him to the Al Center? Thanks.

Marquette to Get Volume Discount for Arthroscopic Surgeries

Mr. Basketball Wisconsin, freshman Scott Christoperson, will miss an undetermined amount of time following knee surgery Saturday morning.

Scott underwent arthroscopic surgery to his right knee Saturday to repair a pre-existing injury to his meniscus. He will begin the rehabilitation process immediately and is expected to return in 2007-08.

"We felt surgery at this time was the best option for Scott, not only for this season, but his long-term future as well" Crean said in a release.

Ouch! First Mbakwe, now Christoperson. One more, and MU gets a free set of steak knives at the Surgery Center.

The release suggests Scott will be back this season, although the debate will rage on whether he should red-shirt, since he hasn't played in any regular season games yet.

Trevor Mbakwe to miss entire season

In a radio interview this morning on 1510 WAUK in Milwaukee, Tom Crean confirmed that freshman PF Trevor Mbakwe suffered a knee injury that will require surgery. Mbakwe will miss the entire 2007-2008 season.

Mbakwe was expected to be a major contributor in the MU frontcourt this season. Absent Mbakwe's athleticism, Tom Crean will be forced to rely more on junior PF Dwight Burke, who has been ineffective in his first two seasons. Also, this means that Crean will likely have to play Lazar Hayward at the true PF slot more than expected, and freshman PF Pat Hazel. should see more time.

Check out the info on MUScoop.

Here's the audio of the interview from 1510AM

Rosiak blogs.

The official MU release.

Jerel McNeal out for NCAA tournament

UPDATED

Rosiak has the scoop today on his blog. McNeal is done for 2006-2007.

Or not -- see, Todd Rosiak re-filed a second news brief on the JS site today......now he says that McNeal is out only for this weekend.

Ahem. Sounds fishy to me. Ya think MU made a few phone calls to the Journal-Sentinel? That's odd because I bet Rosiak checked with multiple sources before filing his initial news brief.

For my money, I'm guessing Rosiak's original scoop -- that McNeal is done for the year -- is the right call. It was confirmed later by ESPN. ESPNews then confirmed the story as well in their Breaking News segment.

The MUScoop guys are all over it.

Jerel McNeal Injury Update

Here's a post for the (literally) hundreds of you who have found Cracked Sidewalks while Googling on "Jerel McNeal injury" or similar.

What is Jerel McNeal's status? There is some Internet buzz out there which claims that Jerel McNeal is done for the year. If you keep looking, some even claim he had surgery on his injured thumb.

Want more? MU has its own crack staff of online physical therapists and physicians evaluating McNeal. Free medical advice via message boards, good for him!

There's no shortage of negativity on his prognosis. Heck, Tom Crean effectively said that McNeal was done for at least this week in the coverage we saw earlier today.

And there's plenty more to go 'round. Anonymous tips, 'people in the know', et al.

Bottom line? We think McNeal is done for the year, at least as an effective contributor for Marquette. Sure MU is doing its best to rehab McNeal in hopes that he'll recover from the right thumb injury quickly enough to play again -- but after missing practice for nearly two weeks, a return to good health in time to help this team is unlikely.

Maybe MU is sandbagging everybody on this - - don't forget that last season Wesley Matthews returned from a stress fracture earlier than anticipated. Of course, it took Wesley more than a few games to regain his early-season form once he returned -- so it's only logical that McNeal would endure a similar recovery, particularly since he injured his right (shooting) thumb -- a hand that was still splinted (at least) at the Big East tourney a few days ago.

Could there be a Willis Reed Moment for MU? Perhaps, but remember that Reed's 'moment' (all of 4 points in fifteen minutes) is only notable because Walt Frazier delivered one of the greatest playoff performances in NBA history -- 36 points, 19 assists and five steals in Game 7 of the 1970 NBA Finals.

Moral of the story? Somebody else better step up for MU. We hope we're wrong, we really do..........but we think he's done (at least as the player he was earlier this season).