Another week of #mubb product and another week of two loses with silver linings. In this episode of the podcast we discuss the Seton Hall and Xavier games and what we took away from them. We do spend some time on negativity island especially around turnovers and why they keep happening at such an alarming rate. We then take a ferry to things aren't too bad harbor where we talk about the offensive success of the team and Jajuan Johnson turning into good Jajuan Johnson. We then look ahead to the rest of the conference season but especially the next three games and what it'll take for Marquette to get some wins. Two home games this week including a rare night game against an unexpectedly decent Creighton, gotta come away with at least one win. Do they have it in them? Download this episode (right click and save)
Friday, February 05, 2016
Value Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.
In the days ahead we will be updating the historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:
|Average Player Performance 2003-2016||OR%||DR%||Blk%||Stl%||FTRate||2-pt %|
|1500 top players who did not make NBA||3.46||11.10||0.86||2.23||36.35||47%|
|Future NBA average||7.08||14.74||3.08||2.17||42.09||51%|
The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.
MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.
As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.
|College Yr||NBA Last Year or %|
|Ellenson, Henry 13||2016||91%|
|Fischer, Luke 40||2016||35%|
|Johnson, JaJuan 23||2016||21%|
|Cheatham, Haanif 25||2016||16%|
|Total estimated 2016 team||1.63|
|Fischer, Luke 40||2015||35%|
|Johnson, JaJuan 23||2015||21%|
|Total estimated 2015 team||0.56|
|Crowder, Jae 32||2012||2016|
|Butler, Jimmy 33||2011||2016|
|Crowder, Jae 32||2011||2016|
|Butler, Jimmy 33||2010||2016|
|Butler, Jimmy 33||2009||2016|
|Matthews, Wesley 23||2009||2016|
|Matthews, Wesley 23||2008||2016|
|Matthews, Wesley 23||2007||2016|
|Blue, Vander 13||2013||2015|
|Blue, Vander 2||2012||2015|
|Blue, Vander 2||2011||2015|
|Buycks, Dwight 23||2011||2015|
|Buycks, Dwight 23||2010||2015|
|McNeal, Jerel 22||2009||2015|
|McNeal, Jerel 22||2008||2015|
|McNeal, Jerel 22||2007||2015|
|Johnson-Odom, Darius 1||2012||2014|
|Johnson-Odom, Darius 1||2011||2014|
|Johnson-Odom, Darius 1||2010||2014|
|Hayward, Lazar 32||2010||2013|
|Hayward, Lazar 32||2009||2013|
|Hayward, Lazar 32||2008||2013|
|Hayward, Lazar 32||2007||2013|
|Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season|
Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.
While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.
The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.
|Rnk||School since 2003||Future NBA/Year||Total|
|38||North Carolina St.||1.4||19.0|
|40||Texas A and M||1.3||18.1|
Written by JohnPudner at 8:35 AM
Monday, February 01, 2016
Well, we can all breathe just a touch easier, as we now know Marquette can put together a quality game against a quality opponent in Big East play. We spend a fair amount of time on the pod this week, discussing what the impact of the Butler win is on the season, and just what it was that allowed Marquette to put on such a good showing. We walk through some of the individual performances and discuss whether they are sustainable through the rest of the season or not. We also give a shout out to the crowd who put in yeoman's work on Saturday. We then transition to "well that's nice but can we win more?" and "OK but we still can't make the tournament, right....right?". Lastly we journey down a Marquette tangent that maybe the internet masses can answer for us. This week is a big week for Marquette's post season hopes, two tough road games that will determine if they've turned the corner or if they are still just talented freshmen. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 7:08 AM
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Butler was the 7th Top 200 team to visit the Bradley Center this season. The first times Marquette averaged doing 13 points WORSE than their projection at www.kenpom.com.
Toss-ups vs. Iowa and Seton Hall? 20-point losses. Eight-point favorites over Belmont and DePaul? Losses. Sixteen point favorite over IUPUI? It took overtime. Only Xavier met up to expectations - losing by exactly the eight point projection.
But Henry Ellenson looked like a guy expecting to be in the NBA next year rather than a freshman, scoring 32 points as Marquette beat favored Butler 75-69.
The reason this is so encouraging is that with the freshman experiencing what it is like to have a crowd behind you - rather than disappointed in you - this could help MU take care of business at home.
And if they do that they already played like a tournament team on the road, averaging 5.5 points a game better than projected - but more importantly winning four games in which they were underdogs.
A HUGE win. Here are all the results in home and then away/neutral games.
|Home Games vs. Top 200||Result||Projection||Better|
|Average Home Performance||-9.3||4.0||-13.3|
|Away Games vs. Top 200|
|Average Away Performance||-2.7||-8.2||5.5|
Written by JohnPudner at 1:46 PM
Thursday, January 28, 2016
It sounds like I depressed fans with Henry Ellenson's Value Add Ranking, and it slipped even further to 405th after the Stetson game. However, in response to the question about why his blocked shots and rebounds do not push him higher - the new run tonight shows he is actually the 32nd best Defensive Player in the Value Add system for taking almost three points per hundred trips a game away from opponents (-2.69, average is 0.00).
|Rnk||Player and Number||OffR||DefR||Pts/Gm|
|100||Fischer, Luke 40||7.29||-0.8||6.2|
|405||Ellenson, Henry 13||2.24||-2.69||4.05|
|525||Cohen, Sandy 5||3.33||-0.9||3.57|
|539||Wilson, Duane 1||3.31||-0.66||3.51|
Offensively, he is ranked only 1224th in the nation - improving the team by 2.24 points a game, due to low shooting percentages and turnovers offsetting his points. Duane Wilson and the very efficient Sandy Cohen are the two Marquette players with higher rankings because they miss so many fewer shots.
Luke Fischer has a nice balance, and snuck back into the top 100 overall.
He helps make Marquette be one of 55 teams with four players in the top 15% of players (top 600). Arizona and Iowa have the most complete rotations with 7 players each.
Written by JohnPudner at 9:51 PM
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
He is just a super talented freshman that shoots more than any other major conference freshman except Jamal Murray of Kentucky.
An MU Scoop question asked how one of the top 10 NBA prospects could only be the 328th most valuable player at Value Add.
The one thing you do fault Henry with is shooting too much even though he is missing. Henry takes 23% of all Marquette shots game in and game out (this even includes all the shots taken when he is on the bench). Only 11 other power conference players shoot as much as Henry:
|12 biggest shooters||Yr||%Min||ORtg||%Poss||%Shots||%sh/gms||eFG%||teamName|
|Barber+ Anthony 12||Jr||94.8||115.1||28.9||29||27%||44.4||North Carolina St.|
|Moody+ Stefan 42||Sr||87.1||113.7||32.5||31.4||27%||51.9||Mississippi|
|Carter+ Eli 3||Sr||76.8||94.6||32.8||34.5||26%||46.8||Boston College|
|Hield+ Buddy 24||Sr||83.7||124.5||28.7||30.9||26%||63.9||Oklahoma|
|Murray+ Jamal 23||Fr||85||108||25.7||29||25%||50.8||Kentucky|
|Brogdon+ Malcolm 15||Sr||82.1||114.8||26.8||30||25%||50.4||Virginia|
|Whitehead+ Isaiah 15||So||74.1||98.1||30.8||33||24%||41.8||Seton Hall|
|Canty+ Kareem 1||Jr||85||114.2||27.1||28.7||24%||55.1||Auburn|
|Bentil+ Ben 0||So||82.1||113.7||27.2||28.3||23%||49.8||Providence|
|Taylor+ Brandon 10||Sr||79.8||102.8||28||29.1||23%||49.6||Penn St.|
|Punter+ Kevin 0||Sr||86.8||117.7||27.6||26.5||23%||55.7||Tennessee|
|Ellenson+ Henry 13||Fr||79.7||99.2||26||28.3||23%||46.6||Marquette|
I last ran these before the St. John's game, so they are not quite up to date.
On the question of Value Add not adjusting for double teams - it really does. Players who shoot more because they are the go-to guy usually rank higher in Value Add unless they keep shooting even when it means taking shots that they miss a big percentage of the time - and with an eFG% of 46.6, I just believe Henry is shooting too much. Against Top 100 teams his Offensive Rating at www.kenpom.com is just 87.
His blocked shots (while mostly coming against weak teams) and his rebounding put him in the top 10% of all players - a great mark for a freshman. If you note, Jamal Murray of Kentucky is the only other freshman who shoots as much as Henry.
The other things holding Henry back is that MU has played so many terrible teams, and just like RPI, Value Add is held down if you are putting up a lot of your numbers against awful teams.
But as I point out in a response:
The NBA indicators we give NBA teams measure how good the player should be in the pros - and they are completely different than the college Value Add.
For example, Andre Drummond was ranked 268th in Value Add in College and Jae Crowder was 2nd. It was no comparison. When they met Crowder scored 29 points, had 12 rebounds and finished fouling Drummond out by dunking on him for a 3-point play. Drummond sat with 7 points and 4 rebounds.
Crowder was a MUCH better college player than Drummond - no question. That's why Crowder was a second team All-American and Drummond was nothing. But no one ever doubted that Drummond would be be the better than Crowder in the NBA and be a lottery pick.
Written by JohnPudner at 11:11 PM
Monday, January 25, 2016
If you were to base it on twitter/fan forums, Marquette is done as a basketball school for the next 5-10 years. While certainly not that bad, this past week of Marquette basketball was pretty damaging for this season. We spend some time talking about specifics regarding the St Johns and DePaul game, but we really focus on where this team is on the growth curve. We also have some tough talk about the coaching staff and discuss why Henry Ellenson hasn't been the savior some fans thought he would be. Hopefully this pod will be a little cathartic for you. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 7:15 AM