"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, November 29, 2021

Post Thanksgiving relaxation and #BadgerHateWeek

Hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving! Scrambled Eggs is back from our turkey naps to talk about #mubb. We briefly touch on the only game this week against Northern Illinios (nothing remarkable happened) and then move on to the meat of the pod, so to speak: Badger Hate Week. We talk about the game, conflicting styles, and what MU needs to do to win the game at the Kohl Center. We spend a little time talking about the month of December and what expectations we can/should have for this team. We close out with a prediction on the game. As always, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/fejzxe/ScrambledEggs_Editted_112821.mp3

Monday, November 22, 2021

As starts to regimes go, this was a pretty, pretty good one

#mubb is back baby, well at least mostly back. What a week for Marquette basketball, upset and come from behind win against Illinios followed by an exciting run to the Charleston Classic championship. We're here to talk about all of it (including the loss against St Bonaventure) and discuss if Marquette, is in fact, back. We also spend a little time talking about the upcoming week and what the first 6 games means for the season overall. Happy Thanksgiving and Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/dgnnzq/ScrambledEggs_Editted_112121.mp3

Sunday, November 21, 2021

What MTE Titles Mean in March

Jay Wright at the 2016 Charleston Classic; he won MTEs in all 5 surveyed seasons

Photo by Mic Smith | AP News
 

Tonight Marquette will take on St. Bonaventure in the championship game of their multi-team event (MTE), the Charleston Classic. While this young Golden Eagles squad has already given fans more excitement in the first two weeks of the season than most expected for the entire year, a victory over the Bonnies could go a long way toward punching Marquette's ticket to the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday.

While it might seem silly to think about NCAA bids in November, non-conference is the only time leagues can establish themselves against other leagues, which directly determines how many bids leagues earn in March. There is no time of the year more important to determining the number of bids a league will earn than November and December, and with the shortening of non-conference schedules as leagues move to 20-game schedules, each game becomes that much more important.

I looked at the postseason destinations of the champions of 17 different MTEs over the past five full NCAA seasons. I excluded 2019-20 due to COVID cancelling the tournament and 2020-21 due to the irregularity of MTEs. I also looked at the number of runners-up that made it to the subsequent NCAA Tournament. Not surprisingly, winning is better. Here's the breakdown:


Champ-NCAA Champ-NIT Champ No Bid Runner-Up-NCAA
2018 15 2 0 8
2017 7 5 5 7
2016 13 2 2 10
2015 14 2 1 5
2014 11 4 2 8
Total 60 15 10 38

This included going through 85 separate brackets. MTE champs went to the NCAA Tournament 70.6% of the time and earned a postseason bid (NCAA or NIT) 88.2% of the time. Runners-up went to the NCAA just 44.7% of the time. Based on the numbers, the winner between Marquette and St. Bonaventure will be 25.9% more likely to earn a bid on Selection Sunday.

It's certainly possible for one or both teams to miss. That happened in 2015 when Marquette beat Arizona State to win the Legends Classic but both teams were left out of the NCAA and NIT fields. But numerically, when you beat 2-3 quality opponents over the stretch of a few days, it's a significant resume boost that greatly enhances your chances of playing longer in March, and more often than not in the Big Dance. In addition, since Marquette's 2001 Great Alaska Shootout win, that Legends Classic is the only time Marquette won an MTE and failed to punch their NCAA dance card, earning bids in 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2012.

So if you need an extra reason to cheer for Marquette tonight, remember that even in mid-November, an NCAA Tournament bid may very well be on the line.

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The events analyzed for the piece were the Battle for Atlantis, Maui Invitational, Charleston Classic, Orlando Invitational, Paradise Jam, Las Vegas Invitational, Hall of Fame Tip-Off, MGM Main Event, Gulf Coast Classic, NIT Tip-Off, Legends Classic, Hall of Fame Classic, Cancun Challenge, Wooden Legacy, Emerald Coast Shootout, Diamond Head Invitational, and 2K Classic. Here's the full dataset, including the events, champions, and seeding for all 85 MTEs surveyed:




Friday, November 19, 2021

Marquette’s Greatest Hits Against Bob Huggins

The Marquette Golden Eagles meet an old foe tonight as they take on Bob Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers in the Charleston Classic semi-finals.

Huggy Bear and Marquette have a long history together during his days as Cincinnati’s head coach and when West Virginia was in the Big East. Here are some of the greatest defeats in timeline order that Marquette handed the always smug and controversial coach...

02/10/1994: Marquette tops Cincy 61-60 for its first win over Huggins. Marquette lost its first four games to Huggy Bear and only of one those losses were close. On that day in Cincinnati, Marquette Head Coach Kevin O'Neill and the legendary starting five of Jim Mcllvaine, Damon Key, Tony Miller, Roney Eford, and Robb Logterman, were not going to be denied.

03/02/1996: Marquette wins 74-72 over No. 7 Cincinnati at the Bradley Center. The win is not only a victory over a top-10 team but caps off Marquette’s first undefeated home record since moving into the Bradley Center.

03/07/1997: Marquette rips apart the Bearcats and Huggins 91-79 in the Conference USA Tournament semi-final round. Marquette would go on to win the next day, capturing its only conference tournament crown.

02/10/1999: Not much went right during Mike Deane’s last season. On this night, Marquette shocked Huggins’ No. 4 Bearcats 62-58 at the Bradley Center. It was the highlight victory of a 14-15 Golden Eagles 1998-99 campaign.

01/10/2001: Brian Barone hits a game-winning three from the corner during the game's final minute and Marquette hangs on to win 47-44. The victory gives Tom Crean his first win over Huggins.

02/02/2002: Dwyane Wade, Cordell Henry, and the gang combine to dominate No. 4 Cincinnati 74-60 at the Bradley Center. The fans storm the court celebrating, snapping the Bearcats' 20-game win streak.

03/08/2003: Confetti rains down from the Bradley Center rafters. Marquette becomes the first non-Bearcats team to win the Conference USA regular-season title outright. It appropriately happens with a 70-61 win over Cincinnati on the final day of the season. Wade and Robert Jackson memorably embrace at center court celebrating their achievement.

01/01/2011: Marquette opens Big East conference play with a 79-74 win over West Virginia. Bob Huggins coaches, looking as if he was out all night on Water Street celebrating New Year's Eve.

03/09/2011: Marquette beats No. 20 West Virginia at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament. The win helps solidify a birth into the NCAA Tournament and the Golden Eagles go on that first magical run to the Sweet 16 in the Buzz Williams era.

02/24/2012: Williams suspended Darius Johnson-Odom, Junior Cadougan, and Vander Blue for the first half for a violation of team rules. Marquette went into halftime down 32-21. DJO was back on the court for the second half and Marquette proceeded to go on a 24-8 run. Jae Crowder scored 26 points and the Golden Eagle squeaked a 61-60 win. Buzz celebrated the win by dancing on the court. 

Monday, November 15, 2021

Shaka's Past and the Marquette Roster's Future

Darryl Morsell represents the culture Shaka Smart wants at Marquette

Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
 

When Buzz Williams was at Marquette, much was made of how his program wasn't for everyone. He wanted the tough guys, the ones who had to work a little harder to get here, the kids that knew they wanted the Number 2 from the McDonald's value meal menu. If you asked Al, he might've said they knew about the Cracked Sidewalks. Because of that, much was made of how frequently Buzz had players transfer out under his watch. When Steve Wojciechowski replaced him at Marquette, the conversation shifted to how he retained the entire roster Buzz left behind as fans hoped the transfer "problem" would be fixed. In retrospect, that hope was in vain.

So what does any of that have to do with today? Under Shaka Smart, Marquette is in a vastly different place than they were when Williams inherited Tom Crean's loaded 2008-09 team or when Wojciechowski retained Williams' entire current roster despite losing most of the freshmen recruits. Only three of Wojo's scholarship players stayed with Smart as he focused more on building his own culture than trying to hold on to the roster his predecessor left behind. Today, we're going to look at the early departures under all three coaches, Williams and Wojchiechowski in their time at Marquette and Smart in his time at Texas, to try to tell if Marquette will be in a better place as immediately eligible transfers become more common in the modern game.

Williams changed the conversation about transfers at Marquette

Photo by USATSI

Buzz Williams' Tough Love

"I think recruiting, as things have evolved, tends to spoil kids. And within the culture I coach in on a daily basis, spoiled kids really struggle in dealing with me." That was Buzz Williams' view on the culture he created. That led to more transfers out than Marquette fans were accustomed to and also more Junior College transfers in as Buzz tapped his own JUCO roots. Here's the list of players that left Marquette early under Williams, though we are only counting players that spent time on campus as students.

Year Player % Minutes Destination Original Coach
2009 Brett Roseboro 0.0 St. Bonaventure Williams
2009 Patrick Hazel 17.9 Boston University Crean
2010 Jeronne Maymon 10.7 Tennessee Williams
2010 Liam McMorrow 0.0 Tennessee Tech Williams
2010 Youssoupha Mbao 4.3 Marshall Williams
2011 Erik Williams 11.3 Sam Houston State Williams
2011 Reggie Smith 5.3 UNLV Williams
2012 Jamail Jones 16.9 FGCU Williams
2012 T.J. Taylor 0.0 North Texas Williams
2013 Jamal Ferguson 4.6 NC Central Williams
2013 Vander Blue 79.1 G League/NBA Williams
2013 Jameel McKay 0.0   
Iowa State
Williams

Buzz had 12 early departures in 6 years, about 2.0 per year. However, of those 12, only Jeronne Maymon, Reggie Smith, Vander Blue, and Jameel McKay seemed to have significant future roles penned in for them. McMorrow and Blue are accented with a different color because their departures weren't traditional transfers. McMorrow was ruled medically ineligible and later transferred while Blue declared for the NBA Draft, went undrafted, and played in both the G League and NBA in the first season after his time at Marquette. Only three players under Williams, Maymon, Blue, and McKay, left for locations that had levels of play that were comparable or at a higher level than Marquette. Generally, when people left Marquette, it was because they weren't good enough and went somewhere they thought they could play. If there is blame to lay at Williams' feet, it is misevaluations in recruiting. Some of the guys he brought in simply weren't good enough to play at this level.

The Buzz Williams tenure at Marquette was just a bit ahead of the NCAA norm. He averaged 2.0 departures per year. That is similar to 2020, the last year before immediate eligibility, when the average number of transfers per school in Division I was 1.83 (648 confirmed transfers for 353 schools). In addition, most of the players that left under Williams were players most of the Marquette fanbase wouldn't remember or miss based on their accomplishments or expectations here.

The Hausers set their sights outside Milwaukee

Photo by Mitchell Layton | Getty Images

Steve Wojciechowski's Lost Team

After Williams left, there was a lot of speculation about how the recruiting class would be lost and the roster would leave. Instead, "...Wojciechowski did something that went unnoticed by many. The first time he walked into the Marquette locker room, with nine young men confused about their futures standing inside it, he gave each player a hug." At the time, it seemed exciting that Wojo retained the roster and later rallied around the #8Strong concept. Most of the recruits left, but Wojo also was able to successfully re-recruit top-100 local kid Sandy Cohen. The end results, however, told a different tale.

Year Player % Minutes Destination Original Coach
2014 Gabe Levin 0.0 Long Beach State Wojciechowski
2015 Deonte Burton 10.0 Iowa State Williams
2015 John Dawson 0.0 Liberty Williams
2015 Steve Taylor 54.8 Toledo Williams
2016 Henry Ellenson 82.6 NBA Wojciechowski
2016 Wally Ellenson 19.0 G League Wojciechowski
2017 Sandy Cohen 1.5 Green Bay Wojciechowski
2017 Traci Carter 10.1 La Salle/Hartford Wojciechowski
2017 Duane Wilson 38.3 Texas A&M Williams
2018 Haanif Cheatham 9.3 FGCU/Nebraska Wojciechowski
2018 Harry Froling 17.5 QBL Wojciechowski
2019 Sam Hauser 82.7 Virginia Wojciechowski
2019 Joey Hauser 72.7 Michigan State Wojciechowski
2020 Ed Morrow 15.7 Unknown Wojciechowski
2020 Brendan Bailey 62.1 Macedonian League Wojciechowski
2021 Symir Torrence 28.8 Syracuse Wojciechowski

While many expected Wojo's softer touch to result in better player retention, he saw 2.29 players per year leave the program, more than Buzz during his tenure here. It started with Levin, who left before ever suiting up for Marquette, continued with two of the retained players from that first team (Burton and Dawson) leaving before Christmas, and carried on with his own players leaving for both collegiate and professional options. Looking back at Wojo's first #8Strong season, that hashtag only came about because of three departures before Christmas (Levin, Burton, Dawson), and of the #8Strong players that didn't graduate (Carlino, Anderson, Derrick Wilson), most of those still transferred away before their careers were over (Cohen, Carter, Duane Wilson). One of the big differences is that while Williams' departures were largely kids that couldn't make the grade at this level, Wojo lost a lot of players to other high major programs.

An in-their-prime roster of Duane Wilson, Haanif Cheatham, Sam Hauser, Deonte Burton, and Steve Taylor with Joey Hauser, Traci Carter, Gabe Levin, and Sandy Cohen off the bench would be a pretty good college team (though maybe not defensively). In addition, while one can't fault Henry Ellenson for going from top-10 recruit as a freshman to First Round NBA pick after his one season, the other players that left Marquette early for professional options didn't come close to reaching the heights of the sport. It's also worth noting that aside from Dawson and maybe Froling, all of these players had clear futures and roles had they stayed at Marquette.

The problem for Wojo wasn't talent evaluation, it was getting guys to buy in to his program at Marquette, and it showed whether they were major contributors (Bailey, the Hausers), rotation players that other coaches agreed were good enough for the high-major level (Wilson, Torrence), or they were just starting their Marquette careers (Carter, Cohen, Levin). That seems to indicate a culture problem.

Smart hugs Elijah Mitrou-Long as Jaxson Hayes looks on

Photo by Rodolfo Gonzalez | American Statesman
 

Smart's Culture Approach

In taking over Marquette, Smart did not inherit the level of talent Tom Crean left for Williams nor did he retain the entire roster as Wojciechowski did. Smart has kept a journal from his time at VCU, and one of the lines his younger self wrote about things he would do differently if he had to start over in the future was "All culture for the first two years." Well, here he is, and we've heard a lot about how the focus will be on the culture. Just as telling is looking back on the departures during his time at Texas.

Year Transfers Out % Minutes Destination Original Coach
2016 Jordan Barnett 1.8 Missouri Barnes
2016 Isaiah Taylor 76.5 G League/NBA Barnes
2017 Tevin Mack 35.6 Clemson Smart
2017 Jarrett Allen 80.2 NBA Smart
2018 Jacob Young 35.7 Rutgers Smart
2018 James Banks 6.7 Georgia Tech Smart
2018 Mohamed Bamba 64.3 NBA Smart
2018 Eric Davis 48.2 Unknown Smart
2019 Elijah Mitrou-Long 43.1 UNLV Smart
2019 Jaxson Hayes 50.0 NBA Smart
2020 Will Baker 15.5 Nevada Smart
2021 Kai Jones 54.3 NBA Smart

While Smart saw 2.0 players leave per year, only 1.2 left for anywhere other than to play in the NBA. Of the 6 that pursued pro options, 5 played in the NBA the next season. Mack was dismissed from the team before transferring. 5 players transferred. It doesn't seem to be an evaluation issue, as three went to high major levels and two of those were guys that barely got minutes. Generally speaking, while departures happened, the only times it happened with key players was when they went to the NBA and from a recruiting perspective, it wasn't because they weren't good enough for the high major level.

The question is if this cultural focus will work in an era of immediate eligibility. Smart's history at Texas indicates the talent evaluation is spot on and when players depart to be professionals, that is usually because they are good enough for the NBA. But now that no one has to wait to play, will retaining young talent like Emarion Ellis and David Joplin who have long-term upside but might not see major minutes this year be harder than it was for Smart at Texas? In addition, 40% of the players Smart sent to the NBA were McDonald's All-Americans (Allen and Bamba) which will likely be less common at Marquette.

I will leave you with this. Of the three departure tables above, I think everyone would take Smart's over either of the other two. It shows better recruiting evaluations than Buzz, better buy-in than Wojo, and a better ability to send players to the NBA than both former Marquette coaches combined. Even if you take the five-stars out of the mix, Smart put more players that were not high school All-Americans in the NBA (Taylor, Hayes, Jones) than Buzz and Wojo did combined. And when it comes strictly to transfers out, Smart's average of 0.83 transfers per year is better than Wojo's 1.57 or Williams' 1.67.

However, Smart is the only one that will be coaching Marquette with immediate eligibility for all transfers, which stands to make it more difficult to retain players. Sure, Smart was better at keeping players when sitting out was the alternative, but will that retention ability hold up when young players with bright futures have the chance to go play at another similarly prestigious program tomorrow?

All culture for two years. That's the goal. And considering 9 scholarship players on the roster have up to 4 years of eligibility left, the success of that culture is a huge part of creating a sustainable foundation for the program. If the players buy in as well as they did at Texas, perhaps Marquette can better weather the future in an open transfer market. If nothing else, comparing his predecessor's to Smart's past shows what should be a brighter and more stable future at Marquette.

And we're off, #mubb season is underway

Week one of the new #mubb season is in the books, so we need to react to it. We talk about the first two games of MU's season, what we liked, what we didn't like, is there anything to be worried about, etc. We also talk about our biggest surprises in the young season now that we've actually seen the team play. We then turn to the 4 games, yes 4, MU has this week to break down how we think it will go. We close out with everyone's new favorite bit, Take My Money. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/j6fftv/ScrambledEggs_Editted_111421.mp3

Friday, November 12, 2021

Experience and the Upset

On opening night of the college basketball season, there were six high-major teams that suffered losses in guarantee games, which is when the more prominent team pays the smaller team money to come play in their arena. So not only did #25 Virginia lose to Navy, but they PAID for that loss, literally. And while opening night featured the highest quantity, it was last night that gave the biggest moment when UC Riverside hit a three-quarter court shot at the buzzer to stun Arizona State.


Considering the high number of returning players this year to the college game, I decided to break down the experience levels and minutes continuity of those teams. It would seem that the more experienced teams would be better suited to go into a hostile environment and pull off the upset. That seemed especially salient considering the New Hampshire team Marquette will play tonight has a number of experienced players. Here are the results, with New Hampshire added in based on their opening game:

Upset Team Experience Continuity Victim
Miami (OH) 23 10 Georgia Tech
New Hampshire 64 29 Marquette
The Citadel 182 78 Pittsburgh
Navy 46 86 Virginia
UC Riverside 184 90 Arizona State
Northern Illinois 50 93 Washington
UC San Diego 194 100 California
Western Illinois 78 113 Nebraska

Considering there are 358 Division I teams, all but one are top-100 in Minutes Continuity (and all are 68th percentile or better) and the only one that isn't top-100 is Western Illinois, who is top-100 in Experience. Further, four of the seven are top-100 in Experience and all are at least in the 46th percentile. While this is a small sample size early on, clearly having experience and continuity didn't hurt these teams when it came to upsetting high majors.

I would again point to New Hampshire. I had to manually calculate their numbers, but using kenpom's tools, it was pretty easy. They would rank #64 in Experience and #29 in Continuity, making them a dangerous buy game opponent. I would also point out that Northern Illinois (who upset Washington) is the next guarantee game Marquette plays, and future opponent Jackson State is #85 in Experience and #110 in Continuity. If the first week is any indication, Marquette shouldn't take any of their guarantee games lightly, because sometimes that guaranteed paycheck has a loss written into the memo line.

Monday, November 08, 2021

The Shaka era begins, as does a new Scrambled Eggs bit

Welcome to the first regular season podcast of the Shaka era with #mubb. We start the pod with a general review of the exhibition as it were. We then discuss the news that came out around the time of the exhibition including Greg Elliott's suspension, Keeyan Itejere's redshirt, and what exactly happened to MU's court? We then talk about the two games this week, SIU-Edwardsville and New Hampshire. We close out with a new bit from Joe. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/nuyhzw/ScrambledEggs_Editted_110721.mp3