Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 10:56 AM
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.
If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.
This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.
The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.
Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.
I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.
OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.
The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.
Rest of non-conference 4-1
An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.
Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney
If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.
With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.
If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:
a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17
b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.
c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.
The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.
The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.
For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.
We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.
|Res||Date||Ven||Rnk||Team||Top5 VA||Conf||Tot VA||Tourney||Seed|
|W||11/14/2014||247||Tennessee Martin||3.05||OVC||3.05||no bid|
|W||11/22/2014||197||Nebraska Omaha||4.6||Sum||4.6||no bid|
|Old Spice||in Orlando|
|W?||11/27/2014||vs||114||Georgia Tech||9.51||ACC||9.61||no bid|
|W||12/19/2014||342||Alabama A&M||0.16||SWAC||0.16||no bid|
|W||12/22/2014||345||North Dakota||0.02||BSky||0.02||no bid|
|W||12/28/2014||290||Morgan St.||1.71||MEAC||1.71||no bid|
|BE Season 6-12|
|W||3/11/2015||9||123||Creighton (9-seed)||8.84||BE||11.17||no bid|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 1:21 AM
Friday, August 22, 2014
The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).
A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:
1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.
2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.
3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.
4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.
Here are the projections for all Big East players.
|MU||Anderson, Juan||1.30||797||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||MU||1.1|
|MU||Burton, Deonte||3.36||333||2 So||6'4"||SG||36%||MU||4.4||184||MU||1.66|
|MU||Carlino, Matt||3.07||384||4 Sr||6'2"||Grad||BYU||2.6|
|MU||Cohen, Sandy||1.13||859||1 Fr||6'5"||MU||2.28||430||Prep||NA|
|MU||Dawson, John||0.00||2 So||6'2"||MU||0||MU||0|
|MU||Fischer, Luke||0.72||1103||2 So||6'11"||MU||0.94||830||Ind||0.36|
|MU||Gardner, Davante||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||MU||4.75|
|MU||Johnson, JaJuan||2.98||405||2 So||6'5"||SG||30%||MU||2.98||905||MU||0.3|
|MU||Mayo, Todd||Draft||4 Sr||6'3"||Grad||MU||1.82|
|MU||Otule, Chris||Grad||5 Gone||6'11"||Grad||MU||0.41|
|MU||Taylor, Steve||0.10||1939||3 Jr||6'7"||MU||0.12||MU||0.08|
|MU||Thomas, Jake||Grad||5 Gone||6'3"||Grad||MU||0.77|
|MU||Wilson, Derrick||0.00||4 Sr||6'1"||Grad||MU||0|
|MU||Wilson, Duane||1.80||648||1 Fr||6'2"||2 So||3.7||MU||RS|
|MU||Wilson, Jamil||Grad||5 Gone||6'7"||Grad||MU||1.47|
|MU||zzTeam total = 14.46||Top 5 = 12.51||88|
|Butl||Aldridge, Jackson||0||4 Sr||6'0||Grad||Butl||0|
|Butl||Barlow, Alex||3.71||293||4 Sr||5'11"||Grad||Butl||3.15|
|Butl||Brown, Elijah||Trans||2 So||6'4"||Available||0||Butl||0|
|Butl||Chrabascz, Andrew||4.18||251||2 So||6'7"||Butl||5.47||124||Butl||2.07|
|Butl||Davis, Jackson||0.2||1831||1 Fr||6'8"||Butl||0.4||Prep||NA|
|Butl||Dunham, Kellen||5.06||149||3 Jr||6'6"||SG||71%||Butl||5.06||724||Butl||0.77|
|Butl||Etherington, Austin||0||3 Jr||6'6"||Butl||0||Ind||0|
|Butl||Jones, Roosevelt||2.78||438||3 Jr||6'4"||2013||2.12|
|Butl||Marshall, Khyle||Grad||5 Gone||6'6"||Grad||Butl||1.15|
|Butl||Martin, Kelan||0.72||1102||1 Fr||6'5"||Butl||1.45||608||Prep||NA|
|Butl||Wideman, Tyler||0.3||1550||1 Fr||6'6"||Butl||0.61||Prep||NA|
|Butl||Woods, Kameron||1.73||663||4 Sr||6'9"||Grad||Butl||1.47|
|Butl||zzTeam total = 18.68||Top 5 = 17.46||50|
|Crei||Artino, Will||2.03||580||4 Sr||6'11"||Grad||Crei||1.72|
|Crei||Brooks, Devin||2.6||462||4 Sr||6'2"||PG||8%||Grad||Crei||2.2|
|Crei||Chatman, Austin||2.03||581||4 Sr||6'0||Grad||Crei||1.72|
|Crei||Dingman, Avery||0.44||1404||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||Crei||0.38|
|Crei||Gibbs, Grant||Grad||5 Gone||6'5"||Grad||Crei||1.38|
|Crei||Gilmore, Leon||0.77||1072||1 Fr||6'7"||Crei||1.56||578||Prep||NA|
|Crei||Harrell, Ronnie||1.26||806||1 Fr||6'8"||Crei||2.55||387||Prep||NA|
|Crei||Henger, Toby||0.3||1558||1 Fr||Crei||RS|
|Crei||Kreklow, Ricky||0.32||1518||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||Cal||0.28|
|Crei||Manigat, Jahenns||Grad||5 Gone||6'1"||Grad||Crei||3.01|
|Crei||McDermott, Doug||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||Crei||9.4|
|Crei||Milliken, James||0.5||1295||3 Jr||JUCO|
|Crei||Wragge, Ethan||Grad||5 Gone||6'7"||Grad||Crei||3.16|
|Crei||Zierden, Isaiah||0.92||989||2 So||6'2"||Crei||1.21||714||Crei||0.46|
|Crei||zzTeam total = 11.17||Top 5 = 8.84||123|
|DeP||Crockett, Jamee||0||4 Sr||6'4"||Grad||DeP||0|
|DeP||Curington, RJ||0.12||1917||2 So||6'4"||DeP||0.15||DeP||0.06|
|DeP||Doby, Raymond||0.35||1489||1 Fr||6'7"||DeP||0.71||944||Prep||NA|
|DeP||Garrett, Billy||1.7||672||2 So||6'5"||DeP||2.23||442||DeP||0.84|
|DeP||Hamilton, Tommy||0||2 So||6'10"||DeP||0||DeP||0|
|DeP||Henry, Myke||0.88||1009||3 Jr||6'6"||DeP||1.04||787||2013Ill||0.67|
|DeP||Marcius, Sandi||Grad||5 Gone||6'10"||Grad||DeP||0.33|
|DeP||Marrero, DeJuan||0||2 So||6'5"||DeP||0||DeP||0|
|DeP||McDonald, Durrell||0.42||1421||3 Jr||6'1"||DeP||0.5||DeP||0.32|
|DeP||McKinney, Charles||0.22||1815||4 Sr||6'3"||Grad||DeP||0.19|
|DeP||Melvin, Cleveland||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||DeP||1.61|
|DeP||Robinson, Forrest||0.38||1468||4 Sr||6'10"||Grad||DeP||0.33|
|DeP||Ryckbosch, Peter||0||3 Jr||6'9"||DeP||0||DeP||0|
|DeP||Sequele, Greg||0.1||1944||4 Sr||6'9"||Grad||DeP||0.09|
|DeP||Simpson, Aaron||1.1||876||3 Jr||JUCO|
|DeP||Stimage, Rashaun||0.5||1296||3 Jr||6'8"||DeP||0.59||JUCO||NA|
|DeP||Wood, Darrick||0.3||1564||1 Fr||6'4"||DeP||0.61||Prep||NA|
|DeP||Young, Brandon||Grad||5 Gone||6'4"||Grad||DeP||1.31|
|DeP||zzTeam total = 6.07||Top 5 = 4.6||197|
|Gtown||Ayegba, Moses||Grad||5 Gone||6'9"||Grad||Gtown||0.25|
|Gtown||Cameron, Reggie||2.81||431||2 So||6'7"||PF||26%||Gtown||2.81||Gtown||0.12|
|Gtown||Campbell, Tre||0.85||1023||1 Fr||6'1"||Gtown||1.72||544||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Copeland, Isaac||4.3||240||1 Fr||6'9"||Gtown||6.8||68||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Derrickson, Marcus||not yet||Prep||6'7"||Gtown||1.3||677||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Govan, Jessie||3||394||1 Fr||6'10"||Available||5.5||393||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Hopkins, Mikael||1.72||668||4 Sr||6'9"||PF||4%||Grad||Gtown||1.1|
|Gtown||Lubick, Nate||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||Gtown||1.63|
|Gtown||Mourning, Trey||0.3||1579||1 Fr||6'9"||Gtown||0.61||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Peak, LJ||1.42||756||1 Fr||6'4"||Gtown||2.87||329||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||Rivera, D'Vauntes||8.58||13||3 Jr||6'3"||SG||68%||Gtown||10.13||11||Gtown||6.55|
|Gtown||Smith, Joshua||2.15||547||4 Sr||6'10"||C||13%||Grad||Gtown||1.44|
|Gtown||Starks, Markel||Grad||5 Gone||6'2"||Grad||Gtown||2.25|
|Gtown||Trawick, Jabril||2.08||567||4 Sr||6'5"||Grad||Gtown||1.76|
|Gtown||White, Paul||1.6||701||1 Fr||6'8"||Gtown||3.23||275||Prep||NA|
|Gtown||zzTeam total = 28.81||Top 5 = 20.84||32|
|Prov||Bancroft, Ted||Grad||5 Gone||6'6"||Grad||Prov||0.02|
|Prov||Batts, Kadeem||Grad||5 Gone||6'9"||Grad||Prov||1.38|
|Prov||Bentil, Ben||1.21||832||1 Fr||6'8"||Prov||2.44||404||Prep||NA|
|Prov||Bullock, Rodney||0.5||1271||1 Fr||Prov||susp|
|Prov||Cartwright, Kyron||0.25||1783||1 Fr||5'10"||Prov||0.51||Prep||NA|
|Prov||Chukwu, Paschal||1.49||731||1 Fr||7'2"||Prov||3.01||309||Prep||NA|
|Prov||Cotton, Bryce||Grad||5 Gone||6'1"||Grad||Prov||6.52|
|Prov||Desrosiers, Carson||2.3||515||4 Sr||7'0||Grad||Prov||1.95|
|Prov||Dunn, Kris||5.05||151||3 Jr||6' 3"||PG||71%||Prov||5.05||Prov||inj|
|Prov||Fortune, Josh||Trans||3 Jr||6'5"||Available||0.57||Prov||0.44|
|Prov||Harris, Tyler||4.95||163||3 Jr||6'9"||SF||69%||Prov||4.95||558||Prov||1.06|
|Prov||Henton, LaDontae||5.52||103||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||Prov||4.68|
|Prov||Jackson, William||not yet||Prep||6'4"||Georgia||1.04||788||Prep||NA|
|Prov||Lindsey, Jalen||1.41||761||1 Fr||6'6"||Prov||2.85||333||Prep||NA|
|Prov||Lomomba, Junior||0||2 So||6'5"||2013CleSt||0|
|Prov||Owens, Alex||not yet||Prep||6'8"||Prov||1.03||793||Prep||NA|
|Prov||zzTeam total = 22.68||Top 5 = 19.31||35|
|SH||Ajou, Chier||0||1 Fr||2013NW||rs|
|SH||Anthony, Rashad||0||1 Fr||SH||rs|
|SH||Auda, Patrik||1.84||640||4 Sr||6'9"||Grad||SH||1.56|
|SH||Carrington, Khadeen||0.84||1025||1 Fr||6'3"||SH||1.7||547||Prep||NA|
|SH||Delgado, Angel||1.57||714||1 Fr||6'8"||SH||3.17||290||Prep||NA|
|SH||Edwin, Fuquan||Grad||5 Gone||6'6"||Grad||SH||2.49|
|SH||Geramipoor, Aaron||Grad||5 Gone||6'11"||Grad||SH||0.45|
|SH||Gibbs, Sterling||2.83||429||3 Jr||6'2"||SH||3.33||267||SH||2.16|
|SH||Karlis, Haralds||0||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||SH||0|
|SH||Maayan, Tom||0||3 Jr||6'2"||SH||0||SH||0|
|SH||Manga, Stephane||0||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||SH||0|
|SH||Mobley, Brandon||0.46||1388||4 Sr||6'9"||Grad||SH||0.39|
|SH||Nzei, Michael||0.4||1439||1 Fr||6'7"||SH||0.81||894||Prep||NA|
|SH||Oleka, Obinna||0.3||1678||1 Fr||6'8"||SH||0.61||Prep||NA|
|SH||Oliver, Brian||Grad||5 Gone||6'7"||Grad||SH||0.93|
|SH||Rodriguez, Desi||0.6||1191||1 Fr||6'5"||SH||1.21||712||Prep||NA|
|SH||Sanogo, Ismael||0.4||1440||1 Fr||6'6"||SH||0.81||893||Prep||NA|
|SH||Sina, Jaren||0.5||1272||2 So||6'2"||SH||0.66||978||SH||0.25|
|SH||Teague, Gene||Grad||5 Gone||6'9"||Grad||SH||2.73|
|SH||Whitehead, Isaiah||5.7||83||1 Fr||6'4"||SH||7.5||47||Prep||NA|
|SH||zzTeam total = 15.44||Top 5 = 12.78||84|
|StJ||Achiuwa, God'sgift||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||StJ||0.75|
|StJ||Alblegovic, Amar||0||1 Fr||Prep|
|StJ||Branch, Jamal||0.07||1995||4 Sr||6'3"||Grad||StJ||0.06|
|StJ||DelaRosa, Adonis||0.15||1880||1 Fr||6'11"||StJ||0.3||Prep||NA|
|StJ||Greene, Phil||0.59||1207||4 Sr||6'2"||Grad||StJ||0.5|
|StJ||Harrison, D'Angelo||5.5||109||4 Sr||6'4"||Grad||StJ||4.66|
|StJ||Jordan, Rysheed||3.38||330||2 So||6'4"||PG||38%||StJ||3.38||StJ||0.1|
|StJ||Obekpa, Chris||5.25||132||3 Jr||6'9"||PF/C||75%||StJ||5.25||234||StJ||2.47|
|StJ||Pointer, Sir'Dominic||2.5||478||4 Sr||6'5"||Grad||StJ||2.12|
|StJ||Sampson, JaKarr||Draft||3 Jr||6'9"||Nba||StJ||1.29|
|StJ||Sanchez, Orlando||Grad||5 Gone||6'9"||Grad||StJ||2.73|
|StJ||Thomas, Keith||1.7||674||3 Jr||JUCO|
|StJ||zzTeam total = 19.14||Top 5 = 18.33||46|
|Vill||Arcidiacono, Ryan||4.84||181||3 Jr||6'3"||PG||67%||Vill||4.84||223||Vill||2.55|
|Vill||Barefield, Sedrick||not yet||Prep||6'2"||SMU||1.12||761||Prep||NA|
|Vill||Bell, James||Grad||5 Gone||6'6"||Grad||Vill||5.21|
|Vill||Booth, Phil||1.25||813||1 Fr||6'3"||Vill||2.53||390||Prep||NA|
|Vill||Bridges, Mikal||1.15||851||1 Fr||6'6"||Vill||2.32||425||Prep||NA|
|Vill||Chennault, Tony||Grad||5 Gone||6'2"||Grad||Vill||1.21|
|Vill||Ennis, Dylan||0.6||1195||3 Jr||6'2"||Vill||0.7||946||Vill||0.46|
|Vill||Hart, Josh||5.84||74||2 So||6'5"||SG||30%||Vill||7.66||43||Vill||3.34|
|Vill||Hilliard, Darrun||5.05||152||4 Sr||6'6"||Grad||Vill||4.28|
|Vill||Jenkins, Kris||1.7||673||2 So||6'6"||Vill||2.23||441||Vill||0.84|
|Vill||Ochefu, Daniel||4.91||168||3 Jr||6'11"||C||68%||Vill||4.91||243||Vill||2.38|
|Vill||Pinkston, JayVaughn||5.92||68||4 Sr||6'7"||PF||7%||Grad||Vill||5.02|
|Vill||zzTeam total = 31.26||Top 5 = 26.56||13|
|Xav||Abell, Remy||1.9||623||3 Jr||6'4"||Xav||2.24||440||2013Ind||1.45|
|Xav||Austin, Larry||0.94||975||1 Fr||6'1"||Xav||1.9||504||Prep||NA|
|Xav||Bluiett, Trevon||3.2||357||1 Fr||6'5"||Xav||5.7||113||Prep||NA|
|Xav||Christon, Semaj||Draft||3 Jr||6'3"||Nba||Xav||2.9|
|Xav||Davis, Dee||1.15||855||4 Sr||6'0||Grad||Xav||0.98|
|Xav||Davis, Myles||0.6||1194||2 So||6'2"||Xav||0.78||914||Xav||0.29|
|Xav||Farr, James||3.05||389||3 Jr||6'9"||Xav||3.6||247||Xav||2.33|
|Xav||London, Makinde||1.27||805||1 Fr||6'8"||Xav||2.57||385||Prep||NA|
|Xav||Macura, JP||1.06||903||1 Fr||6'4"||Xav||2.14||463||Prep||NA|
|Xav||O'Mara, Sean||0.73||1098||1 Fr||6'9"||Xav||1.47||601||Prep||NA|
|Xav||Philmore, Isaiah||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"||Grad||Xav||1.18|
|Xav||Randolph, Brandon||0||2 So||6'1"||Xav||0||Xav||0|
|Xav||Reynolds, Jalen||2.15||546||2 So||6'9"||Xav||2.81||337||Xav||1.06|
|Xav||Stainbrook, Matt||4.93||167||4 Sr||6'10"||Grad||Xav||4.18|
|Xav||Sumner, Edmond||0.8||1057||1 Fr||6'3"||Xav||1.62||566||Prep||NA|
|Xav||zzTeam total = 21.78||Top 5 = 15.23||63|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 11:59 PM
Monday, August 18, 2014
I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.
Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.
Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.
The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.
The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 12:18 AM
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Freshman from Seton Hall, Xavier and Georgetown are among the most valuable in the country - with each class likely to improve their team's scoring margin by 8 points or more per game. Marquette's Sandy Cohen projects as a strong contributor, and if he was combined with Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino then MU's "newcomers" would project to be almost as valuable as the big three classes.
Even before Todd Mayo left, Value Add projected sophomore Deonte Burton (3.35 projected Value Add) and senior transfer Carlino (3.10) to easily be Marquette's best two players this season.
The table of all Big East freshman appears at the end of this post.
Value Add, the system that measures the overall impact each player has on his team's scoring margin on an average night, projects that Isaiah Whitehead will be the most valuable freshman in the league by increasing Seton Hall's scoring margin by 5.00 points per game. Five other freshman combine with Whitehead to give their freshman class an overall rating of 8.71 for the best mark in the conference.
Isaac Copeland projects as the second best Big East freshman with a projected Value Add of 4.30, and the four other freshman Hoyas also rank Georgetown in second as a team - just behind Seton Hall at 8.47.
Trevon Bluiett is the third best freshman at 3.20, and five other freshman combine to give Xavier a very strong 8.00.
None of the other seven Big East freshman classes are anywhere close, with a solid trio at Providence giving the Friars a fourth best 4.36, but nowhere near the three dominant leaders.
The class after a coach leaves is normally decimated, but Sandy Cohen gives Marquette one freshman likely to contribute the first year with a 1.13 Value Add. Historically 3-star and better recruits make at least a small contribution (about 0.3 for the average 3-star). While one player cannot make a class, other players who will get on the court for the first time this season make for what would be a very solid class if they were all freshman.
Matt Carlino will take the court immediately after transferring from BYU. An exhaustive study of the entire Value Add database from Dwyane Wade's last season through last year shows that a player improves an average of 18% between his junior and senior season. That would point to a very strong Value Add of 3.1 for Carlino this season. Here is the chart of the average improvement from class to class based on 2629 players in the Value Add database who played all four seasons at the same school.
|Study of 2629 players||Ave Value Add||Projected improvement|
So the average freshman more than doubles his value before his sophomore season, but the improvement is much smaller during the next two offseasons.
Duane Wilson missed all of last season with an injury, but was projected to have a 1.6 Value Add out of high school, and Luke Fischer will join after the first semester and projected to have a 1.2 Value Add. If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add.
Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add when he committed to St. John's in 2012, and now should be much better as he comes to DePaul with two JUCO seasons under his belt. Here are all the freshman with at least three stars, and how many points they are expected to improve their team on an average night.
|Freshman||Ht||Team||Proj Value add|
|Matt Carlino (Sr.-Tran)||6'2"||Marquette||3.10|
|Duane Wilson (2013-RS)||6'3"||Marquette||1.60|
|Luke Fischer (2013-RS-Sem)||6'10"||Marquette||1.20|
|Isaiah Whitehead||6'4"||Seton Hall||5.00|
|Angel Delgado||6'8"||Seton Hall||1.57|
|Khadeen Carrington||6'3"||Seton Hall||0.84|
|Desi Rodriguez||6'5"||Seton Hall||0.60|
|Ismael Sanogo||6'6"||Seton Hall||0.40|
|Obinna Oleka||6'8"||Seton Hall||0.30|
|Adonis DelaRosa||6'11"||St. John's||0.15|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 3:13 AM
Monday, August 04, 2014
Once again some late breaking news has sent us to the podmobile to get a podcast fired up and out to you. This time it is the unexpected but not totally surprising news that Todd Mayo is no longer with the Marquette basketball team. It is unexpected from a timing standpoint, but not unsurprising given Todd's history at MU. We choose not to spend too much time on this development and instead pivot to your questions to us in our favorite segment #scrambledquestions. We did get a lot of Mayo questions of course, but thankfully a lot of them were forward looking so we tackled the game of "what does MU do now". Ultimately we plowed through at least a half dozen of your questions and we can only hope we answered them sufficiently. Enjoy the episode and here's to hoping the emergency podsignal will stay switched off for the next couple of months. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 9:26 AM
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Dwight Buycks was the 4th best Big East player in Summer League based on a ratings system that basically mirrors the one I used to rate all Marquette player in The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University. Only the Georgetown duo of Otto Porter and Hollis Thompson, as well as Creighton's Doug McDermott ranked higher.
Using Buycks as an example, the formula is based on game averages of 19.7 points + 2.3 rebounds +4.3 assists + (2 X 0.7 steals) + (2 X 0 blocked shots) - 12.6 points allowed - 7.3 shots missed = 7.75 rating. That is the 65th best ranking of the 359 players who played in at least three games.
The number that should jump out at everyone on this list is the 4.3 assists, which gives him the 18th best assists average in Summer League. I had an NBA Assistant GM tell me two years ago that most thought Dwight could score at the NBA-level, the key was if he could learn to get assists.
|Rnk||Player||Top 3||Team||Rating||Pts||Reb||Ast||StlX2||BlockX2||Pts All||FG Miss|
|Average Top 359 players||3.65||7.9||3.5||1.3||0.7||0.4||7.7||3.6|
|1||Glen Rice Jr||Georgia Tech||WAS||21.13||25.2||7.6||2.4||1.8||0.6||11.7||7.2|
|113||Vernon Macklin||St. John's||ORL||4.85||5.4||3.6||0.0||0.6||1.2||5.9||1.8|
|186||Justin Brownlee||St. John's||CHA||2.61||10.0||3.0||0.7||1.2||0.5||9.3||5.2|
|191||DJ Kennedy||St. John's||MIN||2.54||4.8||4.0||1.8||0.3||0.0||7.2||1.5|
|338||Fuquan Edwin||Seton Hall||OKC||-1.58||1.3||0.3||0.0||1.0||0.0||3.2||2.0|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 9:50 PM