Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 2:05 AM
Monday, October 13, 2014
We start out with the obvious, welcoming MU's newest recruit(and most important in the last 20 years), Henry Ellenson. We try to temper expectations but can't help ourselves. We then transition to some interesting observations from Jon Rothstein who was at practice on the 8th. We discuss what his observations mean and if they make sense. Lastly, we turn to Marquette Madness and discuss whether it tells us almost nothing or absolutely nothing. Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 8:34 AM
Friday, September 26, 2014
Davante Gardner, who was the 55th best Value Add player in the country his junior season and still in the top 4% of all players his senior season, has signed a pro contract in France.
Gardner's sophomore year was the 32nd best of any Marquette player. Only four Marquette players matched three years at that level - Travis Diener, Lazar Hayward, Dominic James (now Dominic Wright) and Wesley Matthews.
Dwyane Wade's 2003 was the best of any player, when he had the 7th best season in the 12-year history of the Value Add database. Travis Diener had three of Marquette's top 10 seasons, and Jimmy Butler had two of Marquette's top 10 seasons.
I first saw Davante Gardner when I flew to Marquette for the Notre Dame game which he took as his visit from my native Virginia, and loved his play for all four years - believing he became easily Marquette's best player. We wish him and Jamil Wilson, who is fighting to become Marquette's 37th NBA player, the best of luck.
Below are the players with the top 50 Value Add seasons for Marquette, with notes on their pro careers after Marquette. Dwight Buycks' best season was actually the 56th best, but we include him as an honorable mention since he played in the NBA last year.
|Top 50 MU Seasons||Player||Value Add||Year||Pro career after Marquette?|
|19||Acker, Maurice||5.08||2010||France is 6th pro country|
|39||Barro, Ousmane||2.95||2008||Romania is 6th pro country|
|26||Blue, Vander||4.02||2013||3 NBA Games with Celtics|
|5||Butler, Jimmy||7.79||2010||87 NBA Starts with Bulls|
|HM (56)||Buycks, Dwight||1.73||2011||14 NBA games with raptors|
|37||Cadougan, Junior||3.36||2013||Canadian National Team|
|2||Crowder, Jae||11.12||2012||24 NBA starts, 156 games for Mavs|
|36||Cubillan, David||3.44||2007||Brief Israel contracts|
|3||Diener, Travis||9.31||2004||21 NBA Starts with Pacers, 179 games|
|43||Fitzgerald, Dan||2.76||2007||Spanish team is 8th pro team|
|11||Gardner, Davante||6.13||2013||France - just signed|
|8||Hayward, Lazar||6.49||2010||72 NBA games with Wolves and Thunder|
|21||Jackson, Robert||4.77||2003||None known|
|13||James, Dominic||5.69||2006||French career ended in 2013, name now Dominic Wright|
|18||Johnson-Odom, Darius||5.26||2012||7 NBA games for Lakers, 76ers|
|50||Lockett, Trent||2.36||2013||Top German League, D-League Select|
|10||Matthews, Wesley||6.19||2009||321 NBA starts Jazz and Blazers, 14.0 ppg|
|14||McNeal, Jerel||5.66||2009||Spanish team is 7th pro team|
|6||Novak, Steve||7.46||2006||414 NBA games, 2085 points|
|1||Wade, Dwyane||11.4||2003||710 NBA Starts, 24.3 ppg, 6.0 ast, 5.0 reb, 1.8 stl, 1.0 blk|
|25||Wilson, Jamil||4.2||2013||signs with Suns, trying to make team|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 11:32 PM
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
The pod signal went up, so here we are. Once of sounds like he's calling on a Campbell soup can, but hopefully you'll survive because we have a lot to talk about. It was a hectic Tuesday, with the new AD announced and then the complete schedule rolled out. We are barely qualified to talk about basketball so we certainly aren't qualified to vet an AD hire....doesn't mean we don't try. While not a complete, in-depth analysis of the schedule, we spend a little time talking about our overall impressions. We also decided to put our "optimism" hats on(surprised we could find them) to discuss what things could happen that would result in a positive experience this season. Lastly, we turn to recruiting, welcoming Haanif Cheathnam, the latest MU player that will have his name misspelled and mispronounced for the next four years, That leads into a general recruiting discussion which includes the 900 pound gorilla in the MU recruiting room. #bringDraketoMadness Download this episode (right click and save)
Written by Phil Bush at 3:01 PM
Thursday, August 28, 2014
The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page
|Ellenson, Henry||NA||NA||4.90||189||0 Prep||6'10"||TBD|
|Burton, Deonte||1.66||3.36||336||4.40||267||2 So||6'4"||SG||36%|
|Wilson, Duane||RS||1.80||654||3.70||313||1 Fr||6'2"|
|Johnson, JaJuan||0.30||2.98||407||2.98||402||2 So||6'5"||SG||30%|
|Cohen, Sandy||NA||1.13||872||2.28||528||1 Fr||6'5"|
|Cheatham, Haanif||NA||NA||1.41||719||0 Prep||6'5"|
|Noskowiak, Nick||NA||NA||1.20||806||0 Prep||6'2"|
|Levin, Gabe||0.57||Trans||1.15||830||2 So||6'7"|
|Fischer, Luke||0.36||0.72||1121||0.94||907||2 So||6'11"|
|Heldt, Matt||not yet||not yet||0.30||0 Prep||6'10"|
|Taylor, Steve||0.08||0.10||1925||0.12||1790||3 Jr||6'7"|
|Dawson, John||0.00||0.00||9999||0.00||2 So||6'2"|
|Ellenson, Wally||0.00||not yet||0.00||3 Jr||6'10"|
|Carlino, Matt||2.60||3.07||388||4 Sr||6'2"|
|Anderson, Juan||1.10||1.30||804||4 Sr||6'6"|
|Wilson, Derrick||0.00||0.00||9999||4 Sr||6'1"|
|Gardner, Davante||4.75||Grad||5 Gone||6'8"|
|Otule, Chris||0.41||Grad||5 Gone||6'11"|
|Thomas, Jake||0.77||Grad||5 Gone||6'3"|
|Wilson, Jamil||1.47||Grad||5 Gone||6'7"|
|Mayo, Todd||1.82||Draft||5 Gone||6'3"|
After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.
The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.
|Nevada Las Vegas||MWC||84||28||19|
|North Carolina St.||ACC||51||33||25|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 4:11 AM
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 10:56 AM
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.
If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.
This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.
The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.
Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.
I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.
OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.
The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.
Rest of non-conference 4-1
An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.
Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney
If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.
With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.
If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:
a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17
b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.
c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.
The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.
The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.
For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.
We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.
|Res||Date||Ven||Rnk||Team||Top5 VA||Conf||Tot VA||Tourney||Seed|
|W||11/14/2014||247||Tennessee Martin||3.05||OVC||3.05||no bid|
|W||11/22/2014||197||Nebraska Omaha||4.6||Sum||4.6||no bid|
|Old Spice||in Orlando|
|W?||11/27/2014||vs||114||Georgia Tech||9.51||ACC||9.61||no bid|
|W||12/19/2014||342||Alabama A&M||0.16||SWAC||0.16||no bid|
|W||12/22/2014||345||North Dakota||0.02||BSky||0.02||no bid|
|W||12/28/2014||290||Morgan St.||1.71||MEAC||1.71||no bid|
|BE Season 6-12|
|W||3/11/2015||9||123||Creighton (9-seed)||8.84||BE||11.17||no bid|
Written by bamamarquettefan1 at 1:21 AM