"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, August 28, 2014

MU in H. Ellenson's Final 3, Crystal Ball/Value Add Composite Projects MU 4th in BE in 2016

The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page

Name20142015Rnk2016Rnk2016 ClassHtNBA%
Ellenson, HenryNANA4.901890 Prep6'10"TBD
Burton, Deonte1.663.363364.402672 So6'4"SG36%
Wilson, DuaneRS1.806543.703131 Fr6'2"
Johnson, JaJuan0.302.984072.984022 So6'5"SG30%
Cohen, SandyNA1.138722.285281 Fr6'5"
Cheatham, HaanifNANA1.417190 Prep6'5"
Noskowiak, NickNANA1.208060 Prep6'2"
Levin, Gabe0.57Trans1.158302 So6'7"
Fischer, Luke0.360.7211210.949072 So6'11"
Heldt, Mattnot yetnot yet0.300 Prep6'10"
Taylor, Steve0.080.1019250.1217903 Jr6'7"
Dawson, John0.000.0099990.002 So6'2"
Ellenson, Wally0.00not yet0.003 Jr6'10"
Carlino, Matt2.603.073884 Sr6'2"
Anderson, Juan1.101.308044 Sr6'6"
Wilson, Derrick0.000.0099994 Sr6'1"
Gardner, Davante4.75Grad5 Gone6'8"
Otule, Chris0.41Grad5 Gone6'11"
Thomas, Jake0.77Grad5 Gone6'3"
Wilson, Jamil1.47Grad5 Gone6'7"
Mayo, Todd1.82Draft5 Gone6'3"

After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.

The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.

Team2015 Conf201420152016
North CarolinaACC2665
Michigan St.B10163811
Florida St.ACC302214
Nevada Las VegasMWC842819
Louisiana St.SEC665020
Southern MethodistAmer331524
North Carolina St.ACC513325






St. John'sBE764645
Seton HallBE1108552

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Fox Sports Latest of Top 10 Sports Sites to give Value Add Great Coverage (formatting fixed)

Fox Sports did a nice piece on Value Add yesterday that has resulted in 1,100 Facebook Shares so far. It was a lot more fun when NBC Sports picked up on it back when Jae Crowder was rising toward the top of the rankings. Still, assuming Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop both have about 17.99 million unique visitors a month (just a guess, but I’m sure it must be accurate ;-) ), that would mean over half of the top 10 sports sites have had good coverage of the Value Add system that started here. Here is the rundown of the top 10 sites.

(9-10 tied) Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop – I believe about 17.99 million visitors a month J - and many articles over the years and lively discussions to let me vet the system before it went national.

8. Fox Sports 18 million – Reid Forgrave wrote the great story yesterday that has produced 1,100 Facebook Shares so far

7. SB Nation 19 million – no Value Add coverage

6. NBC Sports 19.5 million – great reporter Rob Dauster did a follow-up this morning, and did one of the key stories when Crowder was enroute to being the No. 2 player, in which he took note of my surprise ranking of a little sophomore guard  named Shabazz Napier who was ranked No. 11 already by Value Add.

5. Sports Illustrated 20 million – The stat guru Luke Winn gave the ultimate boost to Value Add with the first big piece, which ultimately led to many a meeting and phone call with NBA team officials. It came with a price – a Badger was No. 1 in my offensive rankings when he contacted me.

4. CBS Sports 30 million – I believe they had tweeted out some Value Add updates, but can’t find them to prove it.

3. Bleacher Report 40 million – no Value Add coverage

2. ESPN 80 million – Eamonn Brennan was very complementary, and also noted my projection on a rising sophomore Otto Porter – who I had projected jumping from relatively unknown to the top player in the Big East, which he did.

1.       Yahoo Sports 125 million – no Value Add coverage

(ratings on website traffic can be found here , except for my Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop estimates) 

Anyway, thanks all for reading over the years – even those most critical helped me test these ratings out and make adjustments before they went to these national sites.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.

ResDateVenRnkTeamTop5 VAConfTot VATourneySeed
W11/14/2014247Tennessee Martin3.05OVC3.05no bid
L11/18/2014at29Ohio St.21.47B1028.74NCAA8-seed
W11/22/2014197Nebraska Omaha4.6Sum4.6no bid
W11/24/2014182NJIT5.15ind5.15no bid
Old Spicein Orlando
W?11/27/2014vs114Georgia Tech9.51ACC9.61no bid
L11/28/2014vs36Michigan St.19.2B1022.98NCAA9-seed
(W)11/28/2014vs175Rider5.34MAAC5.34no bid
(L?)11/30/201476Rhode Island13.45A1014.43CIT2-seed
(L?)11/30/2014vs67Santa Clara14.48WCC14.9NIT4-seed
W?12/16/201472Arizona St.13.85P1217.27CIT1-seed
W12/19/2014342Alabama A&M0.16SWAC0.16no bid
W12/22/2014345North Dakota0.02BSky0.02no bid
W12/28/2014290Morgan St.1.71MEAC1.71no bid
BE Season 6-12
W?1/1/2015at123Creighton8.84BE11.17no bid
W1/1/2015123Creighton8.84BE11.17no bid
W1/1/2015at195DePaul4.6BE6.07no bid
W1/1/2015195DePaul4.6BE6.07no bid
L?1/1/2015at84Seton Hall12.78BE15.44CIT4-seed
W?1/1/201584Seton Hall12.78BE15.44CIT4-seed
L1/1/2015at45St. John's18.33BE19.14NCAA12-seed
L?1/1/201545St. John's18.33BE19.14NCAA12-seed
BE Tourney
W3/11/20159123Creighton (9-seed)8.84BE11.17no bid
L3/12/2015113Villanova (1-seed)26.56BE31.26NCAA4-seed
CIT Tourney
L3/17/201568Oklahoma St.14.41B1216.01CIT1-seed

Friday, August 22, 2014

Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts

The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).

A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:

1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.

2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.

3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.

4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.

Here are the projections for all Big East players.

2015Name2015 ValueRnkClassHtNBA%2016ValueRnk2014Value
MUAnderson, Juan1.307974 Sr6'6"GradMU1.1
MUBurton, Deonte3.363332 So6'4"SG36%MU4.4184MU1.66
MUCarlino, Matt3.073844 Sr6'2"GradBYU2.6
MUCohen, Sandy1.138591 Fr6'5"MU2.28430PrepNA
MUDawson, John0.002 So6'2"MU0MU0
MUFischer, Luke0.7211032 So6'11"MU0.94830Ind0.36
MUGardner, DavanteGrad5 Gone6'8"GradMU4.75
MUJohnson, JaJuan2.984052 So6'5"SG30%MU2.98905MU0.3
MUMayo, ToddDraft4 Sr6'3"GradMU1.82
MUOtule, ChrisGrad5 Gone6'11"GradMU0.41
MUTaylor, Steve0.1019393 Jr6'7"MU0.12MU0.08
MUThomas, JakeGrad5 Gone6'3"GradMU0.77
MUWilson, Derrick0.004 Sr6'1"GradMU0
MUWilson, Duane1.806481 Fr6'2"2 So3.7MURS
MUWilson, JamilGrad5 Gone6'7"GradMU1.47
MUzzTeam total = 14.46Top 5 = 12.5188
ButlAldridge, Jackson04 Sr6'0GradButl0
ButlBarlow, Alex3.712934 Sr5'11"GradButl3.15
ButlBrown, ElijahTrans2 So6'4"Available0Butl0
ButlChrabascz, Andrew4.182512 So6'7"Butl5.47124Butl2.07
ButlDavis, Jackson0.218311 Fr6'8"Butl0.4PrepNA
ButlDunham, Kellen5.061493 Jr6'6"SG71%Butl5.06724Butl0.77
ButlEtherington, Austin03 Jr6'6"Butl0Ind0
ButlJones, Roosevelt2.784383 Jr6'4"20132.12
ButlMarshall, KhyleGrad5 Gone6'6"GradButl1.15
ButlMartin, Kelan0.7211021 Fr6'5"Butl1.45608PrepNA
ButlWideman, Tyler0.315501 Fr6'6"Butl0.61PrepNA
ButlWoods, Kameron1.736634 Sr6'9"GradButl1.47
ButlzzTeam total = 18.68Top 5 = 17.4650
CreiArtino, Will2.035804 Sr6'11"GradCrei1.72
CreiBrooks, Devin2.64624 Sr6'2"PG8%GradCrei2.2
CreiChatman, Austin2.035814 Sr6'0GradCrei1.72
CreiDingman, Avery0.4414044 Sr6'6"GradCrei0.38
CreiGibbs, GrantGrad5 Gone6'5"GradCrei1.38
CreiGilmore, Leon0.7710721 Fr6'7"Crei1.56578PrepNA
CreiHarrell, Ronnie1.268061 Fr6'8"Crei2.55387PrepNA
CreiHenger, Toby0.315581 FrCreiRS
CreiKreklow, Ricky0.3215184 Sr6'6"GradCal0.28
CreiManigat, JahennsGrad5 Gone6'1"GradCrei3.01
CreiMcDermott, DougGrad5 Gone6'8"GradCrei9.4
CreiMilliken, James0.512953 JrJUCO
CreiWragge, EthanGrad5 Gone6'7"GradCrei3.16
CreiZierden, Isaiah0.929892 So6'2"Crei1.21714Crei0.46
CreizzTeam total = 11.17Top 5 = 8.84123
DePCrockett, Jamee04 Sr6'4"GradDeP0
DePCurington, RJ0.1219172 So6'4"DeP0.15DeP0.06
DePDoby, Raymond0.3514891 Fr6'7"DeP0.71944PrepNA
DePGarrett, Billy1.76722 So6'5"DeP2.23442DeP0.84
DePHamilton, Tommy02 So6'10"DeP0DeP0
DePHenry, Myke0.8810093 Jr6'6"DeP1.047872013Ill0.67
DePMarcius, SandiGrad5 Gone6'10"GradDeP0.33
DePMarrero, DeJuan02 So6'5"DeP0DeP0
DePMcDonald, Durrell0.4214213 Jr6'1"DeP0.5DeP0.32
DePMcKinney, Charles0.2218154 Sr6'3"GradDeP0.19
DePMelvin, ClevelandGrad5 Gone6'8"GradDeP1.61
DePRobinson, Forrest0.3814684 Sr6'10"GradDeP0.33
DePRyckbosch, Peter03 Jr6'9"DeP0DeP0
DePSequele, Greg0.119444 Sr6'9"GradDeP0.09
DePSimpson, Aaron1.18763 JrJUCO
DePStimage, Rashaun0.512963 Jr6'8"DeP0.59JUCONA
DePWood, Darrick0.315641 Fr6'4"DeP0.61PrepNA
DePYoung, BrandonGrad5 Gone6'4"GradDeP1.31
DePzzTeam total = 6.07Top 5 = 4.6197
GtownAyegba, MosesGrad5 Gone6'9"GradGtown0.25
GtownCameron, Reggie2.814312 So6'7"PF26%Gtown2.81Gtown0.12
GtownCampbell, Tre0.8510231 Fr6'1"Gtown1.72544PrepNA
GtownCopeland, Isaac4.32401 Fr6'9"Gtown6.868PrepNA
GtownDerrickson, Marcusnot yetPrep6'7"Gtown1.3677PrepNA
GtownGovan, Jessie33941 Fr6'10"Available5.5393PrepNA
GtownHopkins, Mikael1.726684 Sr6'9"PF4%GradGtown1.1
GtownLubick, NateGrad5 Gone6'8"GradGtown1.63
GtownMourning, Trey0.315791 Fr6'9"Gtown0.61PrepNA
GtownPeak, LJ1.427561 Fr6'4"Gtown2.87329PrepNA
GtownRivera, D'Vauntes8.58133 Jr6'3"SG68%Gtown10.1311Gtown6.55
GtownSmith, Joshua2.155474 Sr6'10"C13%GradGtown1.44
GtownStarks, MarkelGrad5 Gone6'2"GradGtown2.25
GtownTrawick, Jabril2.085674 Sr6'5"GradGtown1.76
GtownWhite, Paul1.67011 Fr6'8"Gtown3.23275PrepNA
GtownzzTeam total = 28.81Top 5 = 20.8432
ProvBancroft, TedGrad5 Gone6'6"GradProv0.02
ProvBatts, KadeemGrad5 Gone6'9"GradProv1.38
ProvBentil, Ben1.218321 Fr6'8"Prov2.44404PrepNA
ProvBullock, Rodney0.512711 FrProvsusp
ProvCartwright, Kyron0.2517831 Fr5'10"Prov0.51PrepNA
ProvChukwu, Paschal1.497311 Fr7'2"Prov3.01309PrepNA
ProvCotton, BryceGrad5 Gone6'1"GradProv6.52
ProvDesrosiers, Carson2.35154 Sr7'0GradProv1.95
ProvDunn, Kris5.051513 Jr6' 3"PG71%Prov5.05Provinj
ProvFortune, JoshTrans3 Jr6'5"Available0.57Prov0.44
ProvHarris, Tyler4.951633 Jr6'9"SF69%Prov4.95558Prov1.06
ProvHenton, LaDontae5.521034 Sr6'6"GradProv4.68
ProvJackson, Williamnot yetPrep6'4"Georgia1.04788PrepNA
ProvLindsey, Jalen1.417611 Fr6'6"Prov2.85333PrepNA
ProvLomomba, Junior02 So6'5"2013CleSt0
ProvOwens, Alexnot yetPrep6'8"Prov1.03793PrepNA
ProvzzTeam total = 22.68Top 5 = 19.3135
SHAjou, Chier01 Fr2013NWrs
SHAnthony, Rashad01 FrSHrs
SHAuda, Patrik1.846404 Sr6'9"GradSH1.56
SHCarrington, Khadeen0.8410251 Fr6'3"SH1.7547PrepNA
SHDelgado, Angel1.577141 Fr6'8"SH3.17290PrepNA
SHEdwin, FuquanGrad5 Gone6'6"GradSH2.49
SHGeramipoor, AaronGrad5 Gone6'11"GradSH0.45
SHGibbs, Sterling2.834293 Jr6'2"SH3.33267SH2.16
SHKarlis, Haralds04 Sr6'6"GradSH0
SHMaayan, Tom03 Jr6'2"SH0SH0
SHManga, Stephane04 Sr6'6"GradSH0
SHMobley, Brandon0.4613884 Sr6'9"GradSH0.39
SHNzei, Michael0.414391 Fr6'7"SH0.81894PrepNA
SHOleka, Obinna0.316781 Fr6'8"SH0.61PrepNA
SHOliver, BrianGrad5 Gone6'7"GradSH0.93
SHRodriguez, Desi0.611911 Fr6'5"SH1.21712PrepNA
SHSanogo, Ismael0.414401 Fr6'6"SH0.81893PrepNA
SHSina, Jaren0.512722 So6'2"SH0.66978SH0.25
SHTeague, GeneGrad5 Gone6'9"GradSH2.73
SHWhitehead, Isaiah5.7831 Fr6'4"SH7.547PrepNA
SHzzTeam total = 15.44Top 5 = 12.7884
StJAchiuwa, God'sgiftGrad5 Gone6'8"GradStJ0.75
StJAlblegovic, Amar01 FrPrep
StJBranch, Jamal0.0719954 Sr6'3"GradStJ0.06
StJDelaRosa, Adonis0.1518801 Fr6'11"StJ0.3PrepNA
StJGreene, Phil0.5912074 Sr6'2"GradStJ0.5
StJHarrison, D'Angelo5.51094 Sr6'4"GradStJ4.66
StJJordan, Rysheed3.383302 So6'4"PG38%StJ3.38StJ0.1
StJObekpa, Chris5.251323 Jr6'9"PF/C75%StJ5.25234StJ2.47
StJPointer, Sir'Dominic2.54784 Sr6'5"GradStJ2.12
StJSampson, JaKarrDraft3 Jr6'9"NbaStJ1.29
StJSanchez, OrlandoGrad5 Gone6'9"GradStJ2.73
StJThomas, Keith1.76743 JrJUCO
StJzzTeam total = 19.14Top 5 = 18.3346
VillArcidiacono, Ryan4.841813 Jr6'3"PG67%Vill4.84223Vill2.55
VillBarefield, Sedricknot yetPrep6'2"SMU1.12761PrepNA
VillBell, JamesGrad5 Gone6'6"GradVill5.21
VillBooth, Phil1.258131 Fr6'3"Vill2.53390PrepNA
VillBridges, Mikal1.158511 Fr6'6"Vill2.32425PrepNA
VillChennault, TonyGrad5 Gone6'2"GradVill1.21
VillEnnis, Dylan0.611953 Jr6'2"Vill0.7946Vill0.46
VillHart, Josh5.84742 So6'5"SG30%Vill7.6643Vill3.34
VillHilliard, Darrun5.051524 Sr6'6"GradVill4.28
VillJenkins, Kris1.76732 So6'6"Vill2.23441Vill0.84
VillOchefu, Daniel4.911683 Jr6'11"C68%Vill4.91243Vill2.38
VillPinkston, JayVaughn5.92684 Sr6'7"PF7%GradVill5.02
VillzzTeam total = 31.26Top 5 = 26.5613
XavAbell, Remy1.96233 Jr6'4"Xav2.244402013Ind1.45
XavAustin, Larry0.949751 Fr6'1"Xav1.9504PrepNA
XavBluiett, Trevon3.23571 Fr6'5"Xav5.7113PrepNA
XavChriston, SemajDraft3 Jr6'3"NbaXav2.9
XavDavis, Dee1.158554 Sr6'0GradXav0.98
XavDavis, Myles0.611942 So6'2"Xav0.78914Xav0.29
XavFarr, James3.053893 Jr6'9"Xav3.6247Xav2.33
XavLondon, Makinde1.278051 Fr6'8"Xav2.57385PrepNA
XavMacura, JP1.069031 Fr6'4"Xav2.14463PrepNA
XavO'Mara, Sean0.7310981 Fr6'9"Xav1.47601PrepNA
XavPhilmore, IsaiahGrad5 Gone6'8"GradXav1.18
XavRandolph, Brandon02 So6'1"Xav0Xav0
XavReynolds, Jalen2.155462 So6'9"Xav2.81337Xav1.06
XavStainbrook, Matt4.931674 Sr6'10"GradXav4.18
XavSumner, Edmond0.810571 Fr6'3"Xav1.62566PrepNA
XavzzTeam total = 21.78Top 5 = 15.2363

Monday, August 18, 2014

Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.

Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.

Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.

The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.

The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:

St. John'sBE15.157619.14514.39
Seton HallBE11.4011014.747819.8038

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers

Freshman from Seton Hall, Xavier and Georgetown are among the most valuable in the country - with each class likely to improve their team's scoring margin by 8 points or more per game. Marquette's Sandy Cohen projects as a strong contributor, and if he was combined with Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino then MU's "newcomers" would project to be almost as valuable as the big three classes.

Even before Todd Mayo left, Value Add projected sophomore Deonte Burton (3.35 projected Value Add) and senior transfer Carlino (3.10) to easily be Marquette's best two players this season.

The table of all Big East freshman appears at the end of this post.

Value Add, the system that measures the overall impact each player has on his team's scoring margin on an average night, projects that Isaiah Whitehead will be the most valuable freshman in the league by increasing Seton Hall's scoring margin by 5.00 points per game. Five other freshman combine with Whitehead to give their freshman class an overall rating of 8.71 for the best mark in the conference.

Isaac Copeland projects as the second best Big East freshman with a projected Value Add of 4.30, and the four other freshman Hoyas also rank Georgetown in second as a team - just behind Seton Hall at 8.47.

Trevon Bluiett is the third best freshman at 3.20, and five other freshman combine to give Xavier a very strong 8.00.

None of the other seven Big East freshman classes are anywhere close, with a solid trio at Providence giving the Friars a fourth best 4.36, but nowhere near the three dominant leaders.

The class after a coach leaves is normally decimated, but Sandy Cohen gives Marquette one freshman likely to contribute the first year with a 1.13 Value Add. Historically 3-star and better recruits make at least a small contribution (about 0.3 for the average 3-star). While one player cannot make a class, other players who will get on the court for the first time this season make for what would be a very solid class if they were all freshman.

Matt Carlino will take the court immediately after transferring from BYU. An exhaustive study of the entire Value Add database from Dwyane Wade's last season through last year shows that a player improves an average of 18% between his junior and senior season. That would point to a very strong Value Add of 3.1 for Carlino this season. Here is the chart of the average improvement from class to class based on 2629 players in the Value Add database who played all four seasons at the same school.

Study of 2629 playersAve Value AddProjected improvement

So the average freshman more than doubles his value before his sophomore season, but the improvement is much smaller during the next two offseasons.

Duane Wilson missed all of last season with an injury, but was projected to have a 1.6 Value Add out of high school, and Luke Fischer will join after the first semester and projected to have a 1.2 Value Add. If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add.

Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add when he committed to St. John's in 2012, and now should be much better as he comes to DePaul with two JUCO seasons under his belt. Here are all the freshman with at least three stars, and how many points they are expected to improve their team on an average night.

FreshmanHtTeamProj Value add
Kelan Martin6'5"Butler0.72
Tyler Wideman6'6"Butler0.30
Jackson Davis6'8"Butler0.20
Ronnie Harrell6'8"Creighton1.26
Leon Gilmore6'7"Creighton0.77
Raymond Doby6'7"DePaul0.35
Rashaun Stimage6'8"DePaul0.30
Isaac Copeland6'9"Georgetown4.30
Paul White6'8"Georgetown1.60
L.J. Peak6'4"Georgetown1.42
Tre Campbell6'1"Georgetown0.85
Trey Mourning6'9"Georgetown0.30
Matt Carlino (Sr.-Tran)6'2"Marquette3.10
Sandy Cohen6'5"Marquette1.13
Duane Wilson (2013-RS)6'3"Marquette1.60
Luke Fischer (2013-RS-Sem)6'10"Marquette1.20
Paschal Chukwu7'2"Providence1.49
Jalen Lindsey6'6"Providence1.41
Ben Bentil6'8"Providence1.21
Kyron Cartwright5'10"Providence0.25
Isaiah Whitehead6'4"Seton Hall5.00
Angel Delgado6'8"Seton Hall1.57
Khadeen Carrington6'3"Seton Hall0.84
Desi Rodriguez6'5"Seton Hall0.60
Ismael Sanogo6'6"Seton Hall0.40
Obinna Oleka6'8"Seton Hall0.30
Adonis DelaRosa6'11"St. John's0.15
Phil Booth6'3"Villanova1.25
Mikal Bridges6'6"Villanova1.15
Trevon Bluiett6'5"Xavier3.20
Makinde London6'8"Xavier1.27
J.P. Macura6'4"Xavier1.06
Larry Austin6'1"Xavier0.94
Edmond Sumner6'3"Xavier0.80
Sean O'Mara6'9"Xavier0.73

Monday, August 04, 2014

Hold the Mayo and Pass the Scrambled Questions

Once again some late breaking news has sent us to the podmobile to get a podcast fired up and out to you. This time it is the unexpected but not totally surprising news that Todd Mayo is no longer with the Marquette basketball team. It is unexpected from a timing standpoint, but not unsurprising given Todd's history at MU. We choose not to spend too much time on this development and instead pivot to your questions to us in our favorite segment #scrambledquestions. We did get a lot of Mayo questions of course, but thankfully a lot of them were forward looking so we tackled the game of "what does MU do now". Ultimately we plowed through at least a half dozen of your questions and we can only hope we answered them sufficiently. Enjoy the episode and here's to hoping the emergency podsignal will stay switched off for the next couple of months. Download this episode (right click and save)