"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, August 28, 2014

MU in H. Ellenson's Final 3, Crystal Ball/Value Add Composite Projects MU 4th in BE in 2016


The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page

Name20142015Rnk2016Rnk2016 ClassHtNBA%
Ellenson, HenryNANA4.901890 Prep6'10"TBD
Burton, Deonte1.663.363364.402672 So6'4"SG36%
Wilson, DuaneRS1.806543.703131 Fr6'2"
Johnson, JaJuan0.302.984072.984022 So6'5"SG30%
Cohen, SandyNA1.138722.285281 Fr6'5"
Cheatham, HaanifNANA1.417190 Prep6'5"
Noskowiak, NickNANA1.208060 Prep6'2"
Levin, Gabe0.57Trans1.158302 So6'7"
Fischer, Luke0.360.7211210.949072 So6'11"
Heldt, Mattnot yetnot yet0.300 Prep6'10"
Taylor, Steve0.080.1019250.1217903 Jr6'7"
Dawson, John0.000.0099990.002 So6'2"
Ellenson, Wally0.00not yet0.003 Jr6'10"
Carlino, Matt2.603.073884 Sr6'2"
Anderson, Juan1.101.308044 Sr6'6"
Wilson, Derrick0.000.0099994 Sr6'1"
Gardner, Davante4.75Grad5 Gone6'8"
Otule, Chris0.41Grad5 Gone6'11"
Thomas, Jake0.77Grad5 Gone6'3"
Wilson, Jamil1.47Grad5 Gone6'7"
Mayo, Todd1.82Draft5 Gone6'3"

After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.

The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.

Team2015 Conf201420152016
KentuckySEC831
ArizonaP12242
DukeACC523
KansasB12914
North CarolinaACC2665
FloridaSEC486
LouisvilleACC157
ConnecticutAmer3148
VirginiaACC2499
SyracuseACC101110
Michigan St.B10163811
BaylorB12202312
UCLAP12172113
Florida St.ACC302214
MemphisAmer393215
TexasB12671016
MissouriSEC634417
GeorgetownBE693118
Nevada Las VegasMWC842819
Louisiana St.SEC665020
MichiganB1062421
ArkansasSEC212022
IndianaB10892623
Southern MethodistAmer331524
North Carolina St.ACC513325
XavierBE816429
VillanovaBE221330

Marquette

BE

101

89

38

St. John'sBE764645
ProvidenceBE543749
Seton HallBE1108552
ButlerBE1475182
CreightonBE27126127
DePaulBE150150142

2 comments:

John Osgood said...

Aren't you forgetting a certain top 100 recruit...Matt Heldt?

bamamarquettefan1 said...

eek, have no idea how that sorted wrong. Thanks and corrected.