"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Friday, August 22, 2014

Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts

The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).

A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:

1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.

2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.

3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.

4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.

Here are the projections for all Big East players.

2015Name2015 ValueRnkClassHtNBA%2016ValueRnk2014Value
MUAnderson, Juan1.307974 Sr6'6"GradMU1.1
MUBurton, Deonte3.363332 So6'4"SG36%MU4.4184MU1.66
MUCarlino, Matt3.073844 Sr6'2"GradBYU2.6
MUCohen, Sandy1.138591 Fr6'5"MU2.28430PrepNA
MUDawson, John0.002 So6'2"MU0MU0
MUFischer, Luke0.7211032 So6'11"MU0.94830Ind0.36
MUGardner, DavanteGrad5 Gone6'8"GradMU4.75
MUJohnson, JaJuan2.984052 So6'5"SG30%MU2.98905MU0.3
MUMayo, ToddDraft4 Sr6'3"GradMU1.82
MUOtule, ChrisGrad5 Gone6'11"GradMU0.41
MUTaylor, Steve0.1019393 Jr6'7"MU0.12MU0.08
MUThomas, JakeGrad5 Gone6'3"GradMU0.77
MUWilson, Derrick0.004 Sr6'1"GradMU0
MUWilson, Duane1.806481 Fr6'2"2 So3.7MURS
MUWilson, JamilGrad5 Gone6'7"GradMU1.47
MUzzTeam total = 14.46Top 5 = 12.5188
ButlAldridge, Jackson04 Sr6'0GradButl0
ButlBarlow, Alex3.712934 Sr5'11"GradButl3.15
ButlBrown, ElijahTrans2 So6'4"Available0Butl0
ButlChrabascz, Andrew4.182512 So6'7"Butl5.47124Butl2.07
ButlDavis, Jackson0.218311 Fr6'8"Butl0.4PrepNA
ButlDunham, Kellen5.061493 Jr6'6"SG71%Butl5.06724Butl0.77
ButlEtherington, Austin03 Jr6'6"Butl0Ind0
ButlJones, Roosevelt2.784383 Jr6'4"20132.12
ButlMarshall, KhyleGrad5 Gone6'6"GradButl1.15
ButlMartin, Kelan0.7211021 Fr6'5"Butl1.45608PrepNA
ButlWideman, Tyler0.315501 Fr6'6"Butl0.61PrepNA
ButlWoods, Kameron1.736634 Sr6'9"GradButl1.47
ButlzzTeam total = 18.68Top 5 = 17.4650
CreiArtino, Will2.035804 Sr6'11"GradCrei1.72
CreiBrooks, Devin2.64624 Sr6'2"PG8%GradCrei2.2
CreiChatman, Austin2.035814 Sr6'0GradCrei1.72
CreiDingman, Avery0.4414044 Sr6'6"GradCrei0.38
CreiGibbs, GrantGrad5 Gone6'5"GradCrei1.38
CreiGilmore, Leon0.7710721 Fr6'7"Crei1.56578PrepNA
CreiHarrell, Ronnie1.268061 Fr6'8"Crei2.55387PrepNA
CreiHenger, Toby0.315581 FrCreiRS
CreiKreklow, Ricky0.3215184 Sr6'6"GradCal0.28
CreiManigat, JahennsGrad5 Gone6'1"GradCrei3.01
CreiMcDermott, DougGrad5 Gone6'8"GradCrei9.4
CreiMilliken, James0.512953 JrJUCO
CreiWragge, EthanGrad5 Gone6'7"GradCrei3.16
CreiZierden, Isaiah0.929892 So6'2"Crei1.21714Crei0.46
CreizzTeam total = 11.17Top 5 = 8.84123
DePCrockett, Jamee04 Sr6'4"GradDeP0
DePCurington, RJ0.1219172 So6'4"DeP0.15DeP0.06
DePDoby, Raymond0.3514891 Fr6'7"DeP0.71944PrepNA
DePGarrett, Billy1.76722 So6'5"DeP2.23442DeP0.84
DePHamilton, Tommy02 So6'10"DeP0DeP0
DePHenry, Myke0.8810093 Jr6'6"DeP1.047872013Ill0.67
DePMarcius, SandiGrad5 Gone6'10"GradDeP0.33
DePMarrero, DeJuan02 So6'5"DeP0DeP0
DePMcDonald, Durrell0.4214213 Jr6'1"DeP0.5DeP0.32
DePMcKinney, Charles0.2218154 Sr6'3"GradDeP0.19
DePMelvin, ClevelandGrad5 Gone6'8"GradDeP1.61
DePRobinson, Forrest0.3814684 Sr6'10"GradDeP0.33
DePRyckbosch, Peter03 Jr6'9"DeP0DeP0
DePSequele, Greg0.119444 Sr6'9"GradDeP0.09
DePSimpson, Aaron1.18763 JrJUCO
DePStimage, Rashaun0.512963 Jr6'8"DeP0.59JUCONA
DePWood, Darrick0.315641 Fr6'4"DeP0.61PrepNA
DePYoung, BrandonGrad5 Gone6'4"GradDeP1.31
DePzzTeam total = 6.07Top 5 = 4.6197
GtownAyegba, MosesGrad5 Gone6'9"GradGtown0.25
GtownCameron, Reggie2.814312 So6'7"PF26%Gtown2.81Gtown0.12
GtownCampbell, Tre0.8510231 Fr6'1"Gtown1.72544PrepNA
GtownCopeland, Isaac4.32401 Fr6'9"Gtown6.868PrepNA
GtownDerrickson, Marcusnot yetPrep6'7"Gtown1.3677PrepNA
GtownGovan, Jessie33941 Fr6'10"Available5.5393PrepNA
GtownHopkins, Mikael1.726684 Sr6'9"PF4%GradGtown1.1
GtownLubick, NateGrad5 Gone6'8"GradGtown1.63
GtownMourning, Trey0.315791 Fr6'9"Gtown0.61PrepNA
GtownPeak, LJ1.427561 Fr6'4"Gtown2.87329PrepNA
GtownRivera, D'Vauntes8.58133 Jr6'3"SG68%Gtown10.1311Gtown6.55
GtownSmith, Joshua2.155474 Sr6'10"C13%GradGtown1.44
GtownStarks, MarkelGrad5 Gone6'2"GradGtown2.25
GtownTrawick, Jabril2.085674 Sr6'5"GradGtown1.76
GtownWhite, Paul1.67011 Fr6'8"Gtown3.23275PrepNA
GtownzzTeam total = 28.81Top 5 = 20.8432
ProvBancroft, TedGrad5 Gone6'6"GradProv0.02
ProvBatts, KadeemGrad5 Gone6'9"GradProv1.38
ProvBentil, Ben1.218321 Fr6'8"Prov2.44404PrepNA
ProvBullock, Rodney0.512711 FrProvsusp
ProvCartwright, Kyron0.2517831 Fr5'10"Prov0.51PrepNA
ProvChukwu, Paschal1.497311 Fr7'2"Prov3.01309PrepNA
ProvCotton, BryceGrad5 Gone6'1"GradProv6.52
ProvDesrosiers, Carson2.35154 Sr7'0GradProv1.95
ProvDunn, Kris5.051513 Jr6' 3"PG71%Prov5.05Provinj
ProvFortune, JoshTrans3 Jr6'5"Available0.57Prov0.44
ProvHarris, Tyler4.951633 Jr6'9"SF69%Prov4.95558Prov1.06
ProvHenton, LaDontae5.521034 Sr6'6"GradProv4.68
ProvJackson, Williamnot yetPrep6'4"Georgia1.04788PrepNA
ProvLindsey, Jalen1.417611 Fr6'6"Prov2.85333PrepNA
ProvLomomba, Junior02 So6'5"2013CleSt0
ProvOwens, Alexnot yetPrep6'8"Prov1.03793PrepNA
ProvzzTeam total = 22.68Top 5 = 19.3135
SHAjou, Chier01 Fr2013NWrs
SHAnthony, Rashad01 FrSHrs
SHAuda, Patrik1.846404 Sr6'9"GradSH1.56
SHCarrington, Khadeen0.8410251 Fr6'3"SH1.7547PrepNA
SHDelgado, Angel1.577141 Fr6'8"SH3.17290PrepNA
SHEdwin, FuquanGrad5 Gone6'6"GradSH2.49
SHGeramipoor, AaronGrad5 Gone6'11"GradSH0.45
SHGibbs, Sterling2.834293 Jr6'2"SH3.33267SH2.16
SHKarlis, Haralds04 Sr6'6"GradSH0
SHMaayan, Tom03 Jr6'2"SH0SH0
SHManga, Stephane04 Sr6'6"GradSH0
SHMobley, Brandon0.4613884 Sr6'9"GradSH0.39
SHNzei, Michael0.414391 Fr6'7"SH0.81894PrepNA
SHOleka, Obinna0.316781 Fr6'8"SH0.61PrepNA
SHOliver, BrianGrad5 Gone6'7"GradSH0.93
SHRodriguez, Desi0.611911 Fr6'5"SH1.21712PrepNA
SHSanogo, Ismael0.414401 Fr6'6"SH0.81893PrepNA
SHSina, Jaren0.512722 So6'2"SH0.66978SH0.25
SHTeague, GeneGrad5 Gone6'9"GradSH2.73
SHWhitehead, Isaiah5.7831 Fr6'4"SH7.547PrepNA
SHzzTeam total = 15.44Top 5 = 12.7884
StJAchiuwa, God'sgiftGrad5 Gone6'8"GradStJ0.75
StJAlblegovic, Amar01 FrPrep
StJBranch, Jamal0.0719954 Sr6'3"GradStJ0.06
StJDelaRosa, Adonis0.1518801 Fr6'11"StJ0.3PrepNA
StJGreene, Phil0.5912074 Sr6'2"GradStJ0.5
StJHarrison, D'Angelo5.51094 Sr6'4"GradStJ4.66
StJJordan, Rysheed3.383302 So6'4"PG38%StJ3.38StJ0.1
StJObekpa, Chris5.251323 Jr6'9"PF/C75%StJ5.25234StJ2.47
StJPointer, Sir'Dominic2.54784 Sr6'5"GradStJ2.12
StJSampson, JaKarrDraft3 Jr6'9"NbaStJ1.29
StJSanchez, OrlandoGrad5 Gone6'9"GradStJ2.73
StJThomas, Keith1.76743 JrJUCO
StJzzTeam total = 19.14Top 5 = 18.3346
VillArcidiacono, Ryan4.841813 Jr6'3"PG67%Vill4.84223Vill2.55
VillBarefield, Sedricknot yetPrep6'2"SMU1.12761PrepNA
VillBell, JamesGrad5 Gone6'6"GradVill5.21
VillBooth, Phil1.258131 Fr6'3"Vill2.53390PrepNA
VillBridges, Mikal1.158511 Fr6'6"Vill2.32425PrepNA
VillChennault, TonyGrad5 Gone6'2"GradVill1.21
VillEnnis, Dylan0.611953 Jr6'2"Vill0.7946Vill0.46
VillHart, Josh5.84742 So6'5"SG30%Vill7.6643Vill3.34
VillHilliard, Darrun5.051524 Sr6'6"GradVill4.28
VillJenkins, Kris1.76732 So6'6"Vill2.23441Vill0.84
VillOchefu, Daniel4.911683 Jr6'11"C68%Vill4.91243Vill2.38
VillPinkston, JayVaughn5.92684 Sr6'7"PF7%GradVill5.02
VillzzTeam total = 31.26Top 5 = 26.5613
XavAbell, Remy1.96233 Jr6'4"Xav2.244402013Ind1.45
XavAustin, Larry0.949751 Fr6'1"Xav1.9504PrepNA
XavBluiett, Trevon3.23571 Fr6'5"Xav5.7113PrepNA
XavChriston, SemajDraft3 Jr6'3"NbaXav2.9
XavDavis, Dee1.158554 Sr6'0GradXav0.98
XavDavis, Myles0.611942 So6'2"Xav0.78914Xav0.29
XavFarr, James3.053893 Jr6'9"Xav3.6247Xav2.33
XavLondon, Makinde1.278051 Fr6'8"Xav2.57385PrepNA
XavMacura, JP1.069031 Fr6'4"Xav2.14463PrepNA
XavO'Mara, Sean0.7310981 Fr6'9"Xav1.47601PrepNA
XavPhilmore, IsaiahGrad5 Gone6'8"GradXav1.18
XavRandolph, Brandon02 So6'1"Xav0Xav0
XavReynolds, Jalen2.155462 So6'9"Xav2.81337Xav1.06
XavStainbrook, Matt4.931674 Sr6'10"GradXav4.18
XavSumner, Edmond0.810571 Fr6'3"Xav1.62566PrepNA
XavzzTeam total = 21.78Top 5 = 15.2363

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