"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, August 18, 2014

Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.

Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.

Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.

The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.

The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:



TeamConf2014Rnk2015Rnk2016Rnk
VillanovaBE25.982231.271624.1725
GeorgetownBE15.826925.822825.6620
ProvidenceBE17.505422.684011.4871
XavierBE14.638121.784424.8323
St. John'sBE15.157619.14514.39
ButlerBE9.2814718.68559.1286
Seton HallBE11.4011014.747819.8038
MarquetteBE12.3610112.66938.5494
CreightonBE24.472711.181085.31143
DePaulBE5.596.085.82133



1 comment:

Dirkus Callahan said...

How did you come up with the projections for the incoming freshmen? Very interesting way to look at and project teams' performances.