With thanks to 1976 MU Alum Jim Antunes, here's his eyewitness report of the night Real Chili ran out chili ----
After a great afternoon of stomping the hated Irish, I made it to Real Chili. There were two counter guys instead of the normal one person. They knew with an early game, they would be busy so they came in at 8:30, an hour earlier than normal. When I got there, just around 5, they took my order and then they started looking VERY concerned. My bowl emptied the stock pot and the next pot was not done cooking. Real Chili literally had RUN OUT of chili. The guy said that they had gone through 15 pots so far that day and they were planning on staying open until 4 AM. The look on people’s faces when they were told that there was no more chili for at least 30 minutes was complete disbelief. I stayed around for about 15 minutes because between the expression on the counter guys and would be customers was priceless.
They finally decided to put a sign up and then lock the door.
The counter guy said that they were so busy, that the cash register would not close because it was so stuffed with bills and they didn’t have time to empty the register.
The counter guy made me promise not to tell the other stores or he would get in trouble. He literally had done everything possible to keep the chili following, but the orders were coming in too fast.
I’ve been there when they ran out of oyster crackers
Went to the store for saltines, but run out of chili – sacrilege.
Wonder if Francis and Blondie ever had that problem.
Now THAT is one for the record books.
Monday, January 14, 2008
The night Real Chili closed early
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Notre Dame Numbers Recap
In our Notre Dame Preview, we said to watch for Offensive Rebounding Percentage for both squads, the Turnover Percentage for ND, and the Free Throw Rate that Marquette allows on Defense.
Turnovers and a high Field Goal Percentage overcome sup-par Offensive Rebounding and Free Throws
As has already been covered, Turnovers were the story of the game. Thanks to an excellent game plan, Marquette managed to harass Notre Dame into 24 turnovers. ND came into the game as one of the top 10% teams in protecting the ball, turning it over less than one in five possessions. For this game, however Notre Dame essentially turned the ball over one out of every three possessions, for their worst turnover rate of the year.
After two consecutive season worsts in both Efficiency and effective Field Goal percentage, Marquette was able to get back on track with strong outings in both areas. Shooting 12-24 from downtown will help a lot, so lets hope that the efficiency continues this Thursday.
In somewhat concerning news, Marquette had another sub-par outing at Offensive Rebounding %. Yet again, Marquette ended up well below their average (now 39.4%). In their last three games, MU has had three of their six worst results at Offensive Rebounding. At one point, our team was #7 in the country at Offensive Rebounding, but we are not getting it done in conference play.
Finally, thanks to Luke Harangody, Marquette ended up allowing higher than their season average on Free Throw Rate. ND took a free throw 43% of the time that they took a shot. Feel free to gripe about Harangody here at MUScoop.com.
When we match up with ND again, let's hope that MU is able to shore up that Offensive Rebounding and not commit as many fouls. We certainly can't expect to force ND into yet another season worst in turnovers.
Individual Ratings
In a 26-point victory, there is plenty of credit to go around. Interestingly enough, Dominic James is the statistical "stud of the game". Despite going 6-15 with 3 turnovers, James also chipped in with seven assists, three rebounds, four steals, and three 3-pointers. Unsurprisingly, Lazar Hayward and Jerel McNeal are right behind. After a few negative outings, it's good to see both Wesley Matthews and David Cubillan back in the positive column. Finally, despite the positive accolades for Lawrence "Trend" Blackledge, note that his impact to the overall game (energy and sick blocks notwithstanding), was actually about the same as Ousmane Barro's.
Additional Links
I'm sure that many of you have seen the following links, but in case there's something new, please enjoy.
South Bend Tribune
South Bend Tribune Commentary
Chicago Tribune Recap
Chicago Tribune's Commentary on the MU-ND Rivalry (by Dan McGrath)
Rosiak Wraps Up ND on his blog at jsonline.com
Let's move on to Louisville!
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Marquette Stomps ND 92-66
Marquette (13-2, 3-1) scored its first bucket immediately after the opening tip, and never looked back.
Jerel McNeal led MU with 18, but the Warriors had 5 guys in double digits, and the stud of the game was clearly Lazar Hayward.
Lazar poured in 17 on 6-11 shooting, 4 steals and a team high 11 rebounds, a quality double-double in 28 minutes. His performance was superlative, though the rest of the team had a couple dozen highlight reel moments themselves.
Marquette had no answer for ND's Luke Harangody, who easily poured in 29 points. With 15 minutes left, a guy in the row behind me said "That guy is going to hit 30 points." My answer: If we're lucky. -- Harangody is the real deal, and Burke, Ooze, and occasionally Trend Blackledge, "guarded" him to no avail, getting whistled 13 times.
Fortunately, when Marquette did have the ball, they found the net, hitting 46% for the night, and an huge 50% from 3-point land. MU also stole the ball 17 times, and had a great 23 to 13 Assist/TO ratio.
Trend had a quality outing, however, going 3-3, 6 points and two blocked shots in 14 minutes. On the post-game show, Crean gave credit to his wife Joani, who told him to play Trend more. Who knew Joani was the evil genius behind Tom?
Of note, Notre Dame had a couple thousand fans in attendance in the "sold out" Bradley Center. I'd bought tickets for a group of friends, who ended up next to a large Domer section. My good friend, Matt, said it was OK to be so close to them, because "you could see their tears better."
AP Recap / Box Score / Play by Play
JS Audio of Crean's Post Game
Game Shots from 204
ESPN Video Highlights
Marquette aims to take the fight to the Irish
Saturday afternoon. Big game. Rivalry game. .......how fantastic is this!
Matt from the ND blog did a great job on previewing the Irish, now let's get specific with the Top Five Numbers to Know about Notre Dame. Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
17 - Notre Dame's Pomeroy Ranking
- Notre Dame is a top 20 team according to Pomeroy (RPI of 52)
- Marquette is ranked #6 according to Pomeroy (RPI of 23)
- The Irish have played four games at neutral sites, but none on an opponent's home court
- As a reminder, OR% is the number of offensive rebounds out of total possible rebounds. The equation is Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent DR). Each defensive rebound by the opponent is a potential offensive rebound.
- The OR% allowed by Notre Dame is 15th best in the country.
- They've only allowed five opponents to crack 30%, and only one opponent has hit 40%.
- Marquette is averaging 40.1% on offense, but has been shut down in their last two games by West Virginia (25%) and Seton Hall (30.6%)
- In both of the Domer's losses, their opponent grabbed over 35% on offensive rebound percentage
- Offensive Rebounding Percentage is the matchup of the game
- ND turns the ball over less than one in five possessions
- This places them in the top 10% of all Division 1 teams
- Marquette is facing their third straight opponent that protects the ball very well
- However, we are forcing opponents into a turnover rate of 23.7%, and we pushed both WV and SHU into more turnovers than they usually commit
- Free Throw Rate is Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted
- When our opponents are held under 35%, Marquette wins
- In the two losses, our opponents have gone over 50% on Free Throw Rate, meaning that the opponent was shooting a free throw every other time they took a shot
Notre Dame is a very good team, and we should feel concerned about this game. However, they have yet to face a rabid home crowd such as the Bradley Center. Notre Dame's success depends on how they do at securing and preventing offensive rebounds, as well as protecting the ball. Marquette needs to return to their previous offensive rebounding prowess and to limit the amount of times that ND gets to the line.
Should be a great game. Pomeroy forecasts a 79% chance of a Marquette win. Look for the team to play inspired basketball and perform like Warriors.
Let's rock the Bradley Center on Saturday, because Marquette's gonna roll!
Links
- Here is the GoMarquette preview.
- IWB's video preview over at the Sportsbubbler.
- CBS has a preview on YouTube.
- CS' breakdown over at the ND blog.
- Eric Silver's fine preview at MarquetteHoops.
- Big East Basketball Report picks MU to top the Irish.
- Rosiak's Preview, with a focus on Harangody
- Chicago Tribune preview, looking at the matchup from ND's perspective
EDIT: Added additional links
Friday, January 11, 2008
Know your opponent: Notre Dame
Ah, a genuine rivalry game........The Irish come to town on Saturday, and we're pleased to welcome Matt from the Notre Dame basketball blog (aka the Black and Green Irish Men's Basketball Report) to our latest installment of "Know Your Opponent".
BTW, check out our Q/A on the Golden Eagles over on the ND blog.
Matt was kind enough to provide this in-depth Q/A to get everybody up to speed on Mike Brey's squad who enter the game at 12-2 overall, 2-0 in the BIG EAST. Matt ........ take it away:
Mike Brey had a successful formula in 06-07, what's he done differently with this bunch to get out to a fast start?
Coach Brey relied on two freshman starters last year in Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody. Their continued improvement and Kyle McAlarney's return has helped offset the loss of Colin Falls and Russell Carter. Falls was a pretty one-dimensional player, great three-point shooter with a high basketball IQ. McAlarney's return from a semester-long suspension has made up for the lost outside shooting of Falls. Though this year's team misses the penetration ability of Carter, his erratic shot selection took us out of a couple games last year. Most importantly, Tory Jackson has shown the ability to distribute the basketball alongside McAlarney in the backcourt and Luke Harangody is growing by leaps and bounds in the post. He could be the conference player of the year by the time he graduates.
Which ND players are exceeding expectations this year?
Harangody and McAlarney have improved a lot this season. Luke lost some weight over the offseason and is showing some more versatility in the post. Kyle has stepped into the shooting guard position with ease and has turned from a distributor into a great shooter. The other player who doesn't show up in the stat book but has impressed more than last season is Ryan Ayers. Ayers was tabbed as the replacement for Russell Carter this season, a selection I to which originally objected. However, he has shown the ability to knock down open looks from outside when given the opportunity and plays great perimeter defense. He's a very smart player who never shows up big in the box score, but does the little things the team needs on the floor.
Harangody. He dominated MU last year, and leads a talented frontcourt. Can you breakdown the Irish bigs?
Luke has grown tremendously this season. Last year, he was a raw talent who could throw his weight around in the post. This season, he has trimmed up and can go to the basket with a variety of different moves. Also plays great defense. The addition of a deadly midrange jumper has turned him into an all-around player. He has shown the ability to consistently knock down any open look from within the arc. The only player who has truly shut him down this season was Thabeet from Connecticut. Luke was at least 7 inches shorter (Thabeet- 7'3", Gody- maybe 6'8") and had trouble shooting over the big man. If he lines up against anyone under 7 feet, he can dominate (see Beasley, Michael).
Rob Kurz is a terrific captain. The lone senior, he is our other post threat. Doesn't do a lot of flashy things on the floor, but can collect a double-double before you know it. Very quiet, and not the bruiser that Harangody can be, but has more of an all-around game. Can hit any open shot beyond the arc and works his way to double digit rebound totals most nights.
Off the bench, Zach Hillesland is our first option. He's more of a small forward, but can play solid interior defense when required. The Irish like to keep Kurz or Harangody on the floor most of the time, however, due to our lack of depth. Luke Zeller has been a disappointment. Now a junior, he came in as a 6'11" Mr. Basketball in Indiana. Not physical enough to play in the post, he has a great touch from outside but just has not developed as the inside threat Brey hoped he would be.
What types of teams give the Irish the most trouble?
This is a tough question, as Notre Dame played a cupcake non-conference schedule and have rarely been challenged before last week. In the two losses, Notre Dame either got into serious foul trouble or turned the ball over a lot. The common factor between the two games was the opponent's ability to take away the outside shot. Kyle McAlarney shot a combined 4-19 against Baylor and Georgia Tech. Good defense/poor shot selection on his part took away one big part of the Irish offense. Protecting the perimeter left both teams vulnerable in the middle, with Luke Harangody scoring 22 in both contests. You can't stop both McAlarney and Harangody, so teams have to focus on one or the other.
What types of teams do the Irish best matchup against?
Just do the opposite of Baylor or Georgia Tech. Harangody has 6 games of 20 points or more. McAlarney has 4. From November 24th to December 29th, both players scored in double figures and the Irish were undefeated. This included such lopsided scores as 108-62, 94-63, and 87-54. Obviously most of the contests were against inferior talent. Still, on December 4th against Kansas St., McAlarney scored 18 and Harangody had 19 points and 14 rebounds.
Notre Dame plays great defense, much improved over last season. As West Virginia found out, it can be difficult to score against the Irish. Unless you can stop McAlarney and Harangody, Notre Dame has little trouble winning.
There you have it. Bamm-Bamm and Mac are really ND's catalysts. Step one for an opponent would be stopping one or the other (you can't stop both). When ND lost in the Virgin Islands, it was when McAlarney was unable to connect on his shots. Harangody really stepped into the player he is now, but was unable to carry the team. Likewise, when 'Gody was held in check (or a headlock) by Thabeet, Kyle was able to pull out a close victory for us.
Matt, thanks very much for an outstanding report. Folks, be sure to click over to the Black and Green Irish Men's Basketball Report for updates on ND throughout the year.
Remember: Book Drive Before ND Game
Just a reminder, before the Notre Dame game on Saturday .. Joani Crean is running her annual charity Book Drive.
In lieu of books, cash will also be accepted to purchase gift cards to bookstores. The books will be distributed to pre-kindergarten through eighth grade schools as part of the seventh-annual School Children's Book Drive, sponsored by Women in Support of Marquette Athletics (WISMA), spearheaded by Joani Crean, wife of men's basketball coach Tom Crean.
"Every year our wonderful volunteers and I look forward to collecting books to hand out to Milwaukee area schools," Joani Crean said. "The annual book drive is an event that the Marquette and Milwaukee community have given generously to in the past. The greatest gift we can pass on to our children is the love for reading."
So .. even if you don't have a book to donate, you've got a fiver burning a hole in your pocket. Give it up as you walk into the Bradley Center on Saturday.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
How healthy is Dominic James?
Perhaps he's not as healthy as we were led to believe yesterday in the Rosiak blog. Check this out from Todd Welter at 620 WTMJ.I did notice a wrap or soft cast on his right wrist sort of similiar to what Fitzgerald and McNeal were wearing when they had their arm troubles (Fitzgerald left wrist & McNeal with that thumb injury last year).
.......visions of Dan Fitzgerald and Jerel McNeal's injuries......not so encouraging.
Seton Hall Numbers Recap
In our Seton Hall Preview, we said to look at Free Throw Rate for both teams, how many turnovers MU was able to force, and to expect Marquette to score easily and often through a quick pace.
Yeah, almost none of those things happened, mostly due to Seton Hall's 3-2 zone defense. As has already been recapped by CS, this was an ugly game.
Looking at the four factors, Marquette should feel fairly lucky to have won. Seton Hall did better on Turnovers, Offensive Rebounding, and Free Throw Rate, and only allowed a slight difference to MU on Field Goal Percentage. Marquette averages an Offensive Efficiency of 118.7, and Seton Hall held Marquette to their worst Efficiency of the season. On the flip side, Marquette was able to force Seton Hall into more Turnovers than they usually commit, and held them under their standard Free Throw Rate.
Disturbing Trend or Fatigue?
For the second game in a row, Marquette was held to a season worst in Offensive Efficiency and effective Field Goal Percentage. Marquette's previous worst in Offensive Efficiency was 101.7 against West Virginia. Marquette's previous worst in in eFG% was 48.3%. MU ended up well below both of these figures, which were already season lows. In addition, for the second game in a row, Marquette ended up with Offensive Rebounding figures that were well below our average. At one point, our Offensive Rebounding Percentage was #7 out of all Division 1 schools, but that number has since fallen.
Is this a trend where our team's offensive and defensive efficiency return to normal after a season of cupcakes? Or, is this just an instance of Marquette playing three games in six days, including a tough matchup in Morgantown? Frankly, there's just not enough data, but Cracked Sidewalks will be concerned if trends continue against Notre Dame.
Individual Ratings
Key contributors to the game for Marquette were Dominic James and Jerel McNeal. The numbers for McNeal are a clear example of how he contributes through different means. Despite going 6-17 and having six turnovers, McNeal had a positive contribution through his other stat stuffers of seven rebounds, five assists, three blocks, and two steals. Both of our centers made their contributions on the defensive end, but weren't able to generate any offense.
Notre Dame is coming to town this Saturday. This will be a very tough test for Marquette.
Notes from around the Web
A few links to get caught up on:
- Dominic James' wrist is OK and he won't miss anytime. So says Tom Crean in the latest blog from Todd Rosiak.
- Marquette is still actively recruiting Ohio big man Bobby Capobianco. The PF has visited MU unofficially in the past.
- Big East Basketball Report recaps MU's win over Seton Hall, along with a number of other Big East tilts.
- Joseph Fulce's Tyler (JC) Apaches lost their fist game of the season last night, falling 89-78 to Paris JC. Foul trouble limited Fulce's production, as he was held to just nine points and seven rebounds. The Apaches are 11-1 overall.
- Nick Williams is having quite a season for the LeFlore Rattlers. Track his game by game production here at MarquetteHoops.
- Mark these dates on your calendar. Tyshawn Taylor and his St. Anthony's squad will be on television a couple of times later this season. The Friars will take on Scott County (KY) on January 21 at Noon CST. The Friars will take on Tyreke Evans' American Christian (PA) squad on February 21 at 8pm on ESPN2. Set your DVRs!
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Marquette survives against Seton Hall
It was not the track meet many expected, but Marquette overcame a 13 point first half deficit to edge the Seton Hall Pirates 61-56 tonight at the Bradley Center. Dan Fitzgerald's fourth three-pointer of the night off a feed from Wesley Matthews with just seconds remaining sealed the win. Marquette moves to 12-2 on the season, and 2-1 in Big East play.
Jerel McNeal led MU with 14 points, followed by Dominic James with 13 and Fitzgerald with a cool dozen. Fitzgerald was 4-9 from the field, with all of his attempts coming from three-point territory. Maurice Acker played a season-high 28 minutes last night, and his energy was a big part of MU's second half comeback. The diminutive sophomore landed up with five points and six assists before fouling out.
For the third straight game, MU was flat coming out of the locker room. The Pirates used an 11-0 run to fight to a 22-9 lead through the first thirteen minutes of the game. How bad was MU's start? At the twelve minute mark, the Golden Eagles were 1-10 from beyond the arc and had more turnovers than made baskets. Seton Hall carried a 31-24 into the half.
The key sequence of the game happened with six minutes remaining and MU down by two, 47-49. SHU's Jamar Nutter intentionally fouled Dominic James on a breakaway layup, sending James to the locker room. James' layup was good and Acker, who started in the second half in place of Wesley Matthews, made both free throws to put MU ahead. MU never relinquished the lead from that point on, though the Hall kept it close until Fitzgerald's clutch bucket closed the scoring. James later returned to the floor, but went to the hospital for tests on his right wrist after the game.
This was some kind of ugly win. Whle MU's defense was solid, the offense was abominable throughout this game. As a team the Golden Eagles shot 32% from the field (realize that SHU was the league's worst defensive team coming into the game). Amazingly, against a team with average (at best) bigs, Barro and Burke combined for one field goal attempt in 39 minutes of action. The shot was missed.
MEDIA UPDATES
Rosiak on MU's win
Zagoria blogs on the MU win
SportsNetwork recap
AP Recap / Box Score / Play by Play
Shots from Section 204
Knowing Seton Hall
Special to Cracked Sidewalks, here is a rundown of the key players on the SHU roster by noted New Jersey-based sportswriter, Ray Floriani.
Eugene Harvey 6-0 SO– Solid lead guard. Gets in the lane, handles pressure and is one of the best in the conference at his position. His liability is outside shooting. Still, he’s the Hall’s marquee player.
Jamar Nutter 6-2 SR– In a slump before a nice outing (career high 29 points) against Morgan State on Saturday. Nutter will let you know by his first couple of shots if he’s on or not.
John Garcia 6-9 SO– Best of the Hall big men. Does a nice job inside but needs additional assistance in the paint against Big East front courts.
Brian Laing 6-5 SWG - Can play the four spot. Undersized for that position but plays’ bigger’ than his listed height and is a relentless worker. Can also step out and hit the ten footer.
Jeremy Hazell 6-5 FR – Can score and is not afraid to take the three. Athletic enough to get inside and break down a defense.
Mike Davis and Augustine Okosun – Both are 6-11and in similar situations. Davis is a freshman while Okosun a junior. These two inside players could have used more seasoning in December. They will play well in stretches but one, if not both, has to be more consistent to help Garcia and Laing inside. Soon.
BTW - -we'd like to remind you that MUScoop hosts a chat room during ALL MARQUETTE GAMES. Just point your browser to http://www.muscoop.com/chat/flashchat.php and start chatting with Marquette fans around the country as we watch the game "together."
Don't forget about the extensive game preview for tonight's tilt right here.Marquette looks to rebound against Seton Hall
After Sunday's disappointing defeat at West Virginia -- where MU gave up a whopping 50 points in the second half -- the Golden Eagles (11-2, 1-1) will look to right the ship in the friendly confines on 4th and State tonight at 8pm CST against Seton Hall (10 -4, 0-1).
Marquette is 8-0 at home this season. SHU hits the court tonight after defeating Morgan State 89-81 on Saturday. The Pirates lost their Big East opener at home to UConn, 98-86.
Like MU, the Pirates are led by their backcourt but rely on a combo forward to make them a more complete team -- in the case of SHU, that is talented senior Brian Laing. While sophomore PG Eugene Harvey tends to gain the headlines, the 6'5" Laing is this team's heart and soul. The senior plays 39 minutes per game and leads the Hall in scoring (19ppg) and rebounding (7 rpg).
Laing should be matched up with Lazar Hayward quite a bit tonight, which presents an enormous challenge for Tom Crean. With Hayward in the lineup, MU is a much more explosive and productive. With Dan Fitzgerald's injury and recent ineffectiveness, much is riding on Hayward's ability to stay on the floor.
Laing aside, SHU is a guard-dominated team but will go to battle tonight without standout guard Paul Gause. Gause, who average nearly 9 ppg and a miraculous three steals per game, is out with a broken knuckle. The Pirates will look to the group of Harvey, Jamar Nutter, super freshman shooter Jeremy Hazell, and Larry Davis to apply pressure to MU.
Led by its backcourt, the Pirates are second in the Big East in scoring offense, racking up 85 points per game. Still, as deep as SHU is in the backcourt and as much as the Pirates love to apply pressure to their opponents (they lead the league in steals), this team refuses to defend. Seton Hall is by far the league's worst defensive unit, surrendering more than 80 ppg, and allowing opponents to hit 45% from the field (also a league worst).
Expect a fast-paced game tonight...a pace that should play to MU's favor more than the Hall's if MU can run its offense effectively.
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know for Seton Hall. As always, information for the Top Five Numbers comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
7 - Seton Hall's National Rating at Turnover Percentage
- Seton Hall only turns the ball over on 16.3% of all possessions
- Marquette is forcing opponents into a turnover rate of 24.1%
- This means that for every FGA that Seton Hall takes, they make one free throw
- However, every time that Seton Hall gets a FTR at 25% or less, they lose
- Seton Hall has achieved a FTR of 34% or higher in all of their victories
- In case you forgot, Marquette just allowed a Free Throw Rate of 58% to West Virginia
- In all four of Seton Hall's losses, their opponent has managed a Free Throw Rate of 35% or greater
- Marquette has managed greater than 35% in all but three of their games
- Free Throws are the key matchup of the game, so look to see which team is able to get to the line more often and prevent the opponent from getting to the line
- Seton Hall is allowing opponents to attain an average eFG% of 51.9%
- Even after being held to only 49% by West Virginia, Marquette is still averaging an eFG% of 56% - that's good enough for 15 out of 341 Division 1 schools
- Expect us to continue the trend and get healthy on good shot selection and easy baskets
- This is one of the faster paces in Division 1 (23 out of 341 schools)
- I'm sure that Marquette will be happy to run up and down the Bradley Center with the Pirates
Seton Hall likes to push a quick pace to the game, but still manages to hold onto the ball fairly well. However, they allow opponents to score very efficiently against them, and Marquette should take advantage. Watch Free Throws to see which team is getting to the line and making their shots at a greater clip.
If you want some help feeling confident after the weekend loss, Pomeroy predicts a 98% chance of win and a 29-point victory margin.
Tonight's game will be broadcast on SNY and on ESPN Full Court, Directv Channel 695.
Preview Links
gomarquette.com Preview and Game Notes
Marquettehoops.com with another great preview by Eric Silver (aka Silver Warrior)
SetonHall Rivals preview
Newark Star-Ledger previews the game
Seton Hall preview and game notes
Rosiak's Preview Crean is still peeved.
*Above post is another joint contribution by one of our NJ-based correspondents, NYWarrior, and Henry Sugar
Monday, January 07, 2008
West Virginia Numbers Recap
In our West Virginia Preview, we said to watch for the following keys to the game: Turnovers (TO Rate), Marquette's Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), and effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%).
The bottom line is that when you look at all of the Four Factors (below), West Virginia won in every category. This makes it very, very difficult to win, and is probably why WVU ended up with the highest Efficiency against Marquette of any opponent for the season.
Despite the first 10 minutes of the game, the Turnover Rate didn't actually end up being a significant factor. Both teams ended up fairly close to their season averages. In addition, although West Virginia shot 50% from three, 48% from the field, and 68.2% in the second half of the game, the eFG% difference was not overly significant.
The big difference in this game was the OR% and the FT Rate. Rosiak's blog entry showed that Marquette only got five rebounds in the second half and zero of those were offensive rebounds. For a team like Marquette, that was rated #7 in the country at 42.6% on Offensive Rebounding %, this is horrible. To put this in context, Marquette had their lowest OR% of the season, and it was one of four times that it was an OR% less than 35%.
The Free Throw Rate really hurts. The number means that almost 60% of the time WVU took a shot, they also took at least one free throw. Even Duke only got to 51%! This is the worst that we have done against any other opponent. Marquette's Pomeroy Game Plan shows a negative correlation to Defensive Efficiency. In other words, the more free throws our opponents shoot, the less likely Marquette is to win. This may sound intuitive, but it is not the case for a team like West Virginia. In doing our preview, we considered looking at the Free Throw Rate as a key, but decided against it because West Virginia is an average team (179 / 341 Division 1 Schools) at getting to the line with a free throw rate of 23.9. Therefore, WVU typically shoots a free throw 25% of the time they take a shot, but they far exceeded this figure against Marquette. Please note that this is NOT a gripe about the refs, because one cannot attribute this discrepancy to the refs.
Individual Ratings
Here are the individual ratings for the team. Basically, the only net positive performer on the team was Lazar Hayward, who spent a lot of time on the bench. Other than that, when a team loses by fifteen, there is plenty of responsibility to go around for the loss. Remember that higher than the team Offensive Rating is good and that lower than the team Defensive Rating is good.
In summary, this really was kind of a stinker game by Marquette. Our team had season worsts in Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, Offensive Rebounding %, and Free Throw Rate. Even with all of that, Marquette was still in the game with 10 minutes to go. West Virginia is a good team, and Huggins didn't get to 600 wins by being an idiot.
The good news is that we don't expect Marquette to perform as badly moving forward, and that there's a short turnaround before Seton Hall. Our team is much better than they showed in Morgantown, and they'll prove it again soon.
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Since SOMEBODY has to give you the bad news . . .
At the start of the day, MU had never won at Morgantown, losing on both previous trips--dropping a 78-76 loss in 1995, and a 104-85 decision two years ago. MU did nothing to change that record today, dropping a 79-64 decision at the hands of Bob Huggins' Mounaineers.
For most of the game, it looked like this one had the makings of a classic, with each team making well-timed runs to build or retake a lead, which ranged from an early 10 point West Virginia advantage to a 3 point MU margin midway through the 2nd half.
But as with the Syracuse game last season, after playing even for much of the game, MU seemingly ran out of gas with about 6 minutes to play.
West Virginia Preview
The 10/11 ranked Marquette Golden Eagles (11-1, 1-0) will put their seven game win streak on the line today when they play the West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3, 0-1) in Morgantown. Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST.
Why does anybody doubt Bob Huggins anymore? Despite being picked to finish 10th in the Big East by his fellow coaches, Huggins' Mountaineers have been one of the league's most pleasant surprises running out to a 10-3 record with wins over Winthrop, NMSU and Auburn. Still, Huggins' squad limps into Sunday's game losing two straight including a defeat at Notre Dame to open the Big East season.
In addition, despite carrying a roster that runs counter to the style of play Huggins relied on for years at Cincinnati, several Mountaineers have raised their level of play this season. Guard Alexander Ruoff leads the Mountaineers with 16ppg, followed by the talented SF Joe Alexander at 15 points and 6 rebounds per game. Senior point guard Darris Nichols runs the show with a steady hand -- he has an eye-popping A/TO ratio of 2.6 to 1 -- and drops in 11 ppg. Nichols v Dominic James should be a great matchup.
After winning the conference opener at home, Marquette could set itself up for an exceptional start in league play with a win in Morgantown. After Sunday's tilt, MU hosts back-to-back conference games. Given MU's domination at home in recent years, Crean's squad has a chance to create early separation from much of the conference.
Dominic James and Jerel McNeal remain the focal point of MU's attack, but the emergence of sophomore Lazar Hayward has made MU a more complete team. The 6'7" sophomore from Buffalo is averaging 13ppg on 58% shooting from the floor. What's more, Hayward is displaying the range we'd only heard about from his prep scouting reports by draining 44% of his three pointers.
James' play continues to impress. The junior is averaging 15 ppg and 4 apg with a solid shooting percentage of 44%. James' shot selection, frankly that of MU's entire backcourt, is markedly improved this season. After fighting through flu-like symptoms against Providence, expect Jerel McNeal to bounce back with a strong offensive game. And hey -- maybe Wesley Matthews is rounding into form after his strong effort against the Friars.
............
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know for West Virginia. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
10 - Both teams are rated in the Top 10 for Pomeroy 2008 Ratings
- Marquette checks in as the #3 team
- West Virginia is the #8 rated team, but at one point was the #1 according to Pomeroy
- The computer prediction now puts our chances of winning at 50% - just a week ago we were only given a 30% chance of winning
- That's #3 out of 341 Division one teams
- West Virginia only turns the ball over 15.4% of the time
- Look to see how well Marquette is able to force turnovers. Marquette is forcing opponents into a turnover rate of 24.6%
- West Virginia forces opponents into a turnover rate of 26.3%
- On the other hand, Marquette only turns the ball over 20% of the time
- Turnovers are the matchup of the game
- This is good enough for Marquette to be the number 7 team in the country
- However, West Virginia typically allows opponents to only achieve an OR% of 30.5%
- Will Marquette be able to achieve good offensive rebounding?
- However, both teams are averaging over 55% eFG% on offense
- West Virginia has only had three teams reach over 50% on eFG% against them - and two of those teams won against WVU (ND - 53% ; Oklahoma - 61.1%)
- Marquette has only been below 50% on eFG% twice, and those were still at 48%
Links
- West Virginia preview/game notes
- Marquette preview/games notes
- West Virginia Preview by Eric Silver aka Silver Warrior at www.marquettehoops.com
*Above post is a joint contribution from NY Warrior and Henry Sugar
Friday, January 04, 2008
Miss a day, miss plenty
.......in the wake of last night's thrashing of Providence, here are a few media updates - - and we'll get our WVU preview posted on Saturday. Rosiak has the key updates of the day:
- Marquette will have a chance to take down The Necklace next season when the Golden Eagles take on Bruce Pearl's UT Volunteers in Knoxville.
- The bummer news is that prize 2009 recruit Erik Williams of Cy Springs High School in Texas broke his ankle and is out for 6-8 weeks. All the best for a speedy recovery, Erik.
- Here's a shout out to Jim Ganzer, one of the lead contributors at Scout's MarquetteHoops.com who looks to be starting a new sports community, the Sports Bubbler. Good luck, IWB.
- The Appleton Post-Crescent has this fab article about MU walk-on Robert Frozena -- he's livin' the dream.
- CNNSI's Luke Winn has MU in his power 16 -- at #9
- Seth Davis picks WVU to beat MU on Sunday. Boo!
- Tyshawn Taylor and Nick Williams are suiting up for two of the nation's top ten teams this winter. Outstanding!
- Brendon and Dante are back with their latest installment of the Big East Cast.
Providence Numbers Recap
In our Providence Preview, we said to watch for Offensive Rebounding Percentage, the Turnover Rate that Providence was able to force, and how well Marquette did on eFG% because Providence was weak in that aspect. Marquette ended up with a decisive advantage in every category, which led to the dominant performance.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
As a reminder, OR% is the percent of total available offensive rebounds that a team is able to grab. The equation is Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent's DR). In other words, every defensive rebound by an opponent is a potential offensive rebound too.
Both Providence and Marquette were amongst the top 15 schools in the nation at OR% (40.9% and 42.2%, respectively). For the game, Marquette managed 48.1% (well above season average) and Providence was held to 27.9%. Advantage Marquette.
Turnover Rate
Providence was averaging a forced turnover about one in every four possesions (24.3%). However, for the game, Marquette only had a turnover rate of 19.4%, which is also below the team's season average of 20%. Advantage Marquette.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
Finally, we said to watch for Providence's eFG% defense, which was in the bottom third of all D1 schools, primarily because opponents were shooting very well from three (38. 4%). Marquette is very strong at eFG%, and managed to show it against PC with an eFG% of 61.7. A good chunk of this high result came from shooting 43.5% from downtown. Advantage Marquette.
Finally, we said to look for the performance of 6'11" C Randall Hanke. He played 10 minutes and finished with 2 points. Can't win them all...
On the individual player side of things, Cracked Sidewalks is unveiling a new feature for the rest of the season.
Individual Results on a Per-Game Basis
Just a quick explanation of the various columns.
Possessions are the view of the amount of time that the player involved ended the action on the floor. A turnover is a possession, a Field Goal Attempt is a possession, and an Offensive Rebound cancels a possession. The actual equation is FGA + TO - OR + (0.475*FTA).
The next four columns are statistics from Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. Offensive Rating is similar as is found on Pomeroy's site for Marquette, except we are showing it on a per-game basis. Higher Offensive Ratings are better. The Individual points produced is "the number of points a player produces through scoring possessions, accounting for three point shots and how well he does at the foul line" (Oliver, 152). Basically, since basketball is a team game, it's a view of how many points can be attributed to that player.
The Defensive Rating is taken from the team's Defensive Efficiency (93.3 against Providence), and then accounts for each player's role in the offense (through blocks, steals, Defensive Rebounds, Fouls). Lower Defensive Ratings are better. Finally, Net Points Added are a view of whether or not the player had a net positive or net negative contribution to the game.
This information is literally only available here at Cracked Sidewalks.
How to read the table
Dominic James had ~14 possessions in the offense and delivered an Offensive Rating (ORtg) of 181, which was well above the team Offensive Rating of 128. He contributed 19.8 points on an individual basis. His defensive rating (DRtg) was 97.3, slightly worse than the team's defensive efficiency. However, James' net impact on the game was 9.4 points of margin, so almost half of Dominic James' points contributed positively. Dominic James had an outstanding game.
On the other hand, McNeal had a net neutral impact on the game. McNeal accounted for 8 possessions and had an ORtg of 109.0 (below the team's rating). McNeal contributed 9.5 individual points, despite the box score showing him ending up with four points, mostly because he had 9 assists that resulted in scores for other players. McNeal's DRtg of 90.4 was better than team's Defensive Efficiency of 93.3. However, at the end of the day, his net impact of 0.8 was about neutral (albiet slightly positive). Of course, McNeal is still dealing with the flu.
We hope that you enjoy this additional information going forward. On to West Virginia, where we have been given a 49% chance of winning the game.
edit: Corrected mis-leading language associated with Defensive Rating. McNeal's defensive rating of 90.4 was better than the team's average of 93.3.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Showing no mercy, MU blows out Providence
UPDATED
James and Ousmane Barro keyed MU's play in the first half as the Golden Eagles built a 41-32 lead at the break. MU was slow out of the gate as the Friars raced to a fast 7-0 lead but James keyed a dominant MU response -- an 18-2 run. The Friars battled back with a 14-2 run of their own to lead 23-20 before MU poured it on late to close the half with a nine point advantage.
Lazar Hayward was impressive again with 17 points followed by Wesley Matthews with 16 and Ousmane Barro's season-high 14 points and 9 boards. MU connected on 53% of its shots and was 22-25 from the charity stripe --very efficient and impressive. MU also out rebounded PC 34-22.
This was a dominant performance.
Tonight's Big East opener marked the first of four games in 10 days for the Golden Eagles. MU will travel to Morgantown on Sunday to take on West Virginia before returning home next week for games against Seton Hall and Notre Dame. West Virginia lost at Notre Dame tonight, 69-56.
Pix
Pictures from Hilltopper's seat
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
MU hosts Providence as Big East Play begins
Folks around the country are taking notice, and the delightful Rick Pitino put a target on MU's back last week by claiming Crean's crew was the league's best as conference play begins. ESPN's Andy Glockner rates MU as the co-favorite along with Georgetown. Thanks to injury (Pitt losing Cook and Fields), headcases and injury (Ville), and sloppy play (Georgetown is not rolling, yet), Slick Rick and Glockner might be correct.
Still, while 10-1 looks gaudy on the game notes the Golden Eagles have only played one game of consequence in the last six weeks -- the win at Wisconsin. In the interim, Crean's bunch beat a series of lesser opponents in predictably impressive fashion and managed to remain injury-free, even regaining the services of a productive Dan Fitzgerald in the final cupcake matchup last week. With Fitzgerald back in the mix, MU is as healthy as they've been all season -- and just in time.
The real season begins when the Providence Friars visit the Bradley Center on Thursday night in the Big East opener for both programs. The Friars enter the contest at 9-3, and the trip to Milwaukee will be just their second road game of the season (five neutral site contests notwithstanding). PC is led by junior guard Weyinmi Efejuku who leads four Friars averaging in double figures with 13ppg. Forward Geoff McDermott stuffs the box score like few others, averaging 12 ppg, and a team leading 8 boards and four assists.
Junior guard Jeff Xavier has stepped in admirably for the Friars' injury depleted backcourt averaging nearly 13ppg highlighted by 41% shooting from deep. The status for starting point guard Shaurad Curry, out with an injured foot for several weeks, is unknown. In addition, backup point guard Dwain Williams is also hobbled by injury. An injury-riddled backcourt is no way to begin conference play, particularly on the road at MU. A quick return to health for Curry would pay dividends for the Friars.
Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm CST on Thursday.
Now, here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Providence. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan .
- That's 15 out of 341 Division 1 Schools
- Providence manages to pull down 40.9% of all available offensive rebounds
- Marquette averages to hold opponents to an OR% of 32.5%
- PS - Marquette is rated #8 out of D1 schoos for OR% (42.2%)
- Offensive Rebounds are the matchup of the game
24.3 - The Turnover Rate that Providence forces on opponents
- Turnover Rate is Turnovers / Possessions, so Providence forces a turnover roughly 1 of every four possessions
- This turnover rate is good for number 68 out of 341 D1 schools
- For the win against Arkansas, Providence forced a Turnover Rate of 44%
- Marquette only turns the ball over 20% of the time
95% - Pomeroy's computer prediction for a Marquette win
- Seem high to you? Remember that Pomeroy currently tracks us as their Number 3 overall team!
- The prediction is a nineteen point margin of victory
- It's nice to see, but games aren't played via computer simulation
231 - Providence's National Rating at effective Field Goal % (eFG%) Defense
- Remember that eFG% is Field Goal Percentage adjusted to account for the extra value of a three point shot
- If you're looking for a weak spot on Providence, they allow a high effective Field Goal percentage
- Opponents are averaging eFG% of 51.8. A lot of this comes from opponents hitting 38.4% of three pointers against Providence
- Considering that Marquette is averaging eFG% of 56.0 (#18 overall), this is a strength vs. weakness matchup
32 - The jersey number of Randall Hanke
- Hanke is Providence's 6'11", 240# Center
- He has the highest Offensive Rating (ORtg) for Providence (136.8), which is well above the ORtg for any Marquette player
- Hanke has only begun to log substantial minutes in the last four games, and only had minimal minutes in Providence's three losses
Links
GoMarquette.com's Preview of the Providence Game
Game Notes
Rosiak's Big East Preview, with a headline that Marquette is looking for a Big East Title
Five Things to Watch in the Big East by the Journal Sentinel
Rosiak's Blog entry focusing on Providence, with particular note of Geoff McDermott and Randall Hanke
Kevin McNamara has a preview article focusing on Providence Guard Weyinmi Efejuku. Efejuku is the Friar's leading scorer and is even compared to Dwyane Wade, but needs to be more consistent.
Providence Journal's Capsule Preview
Above post is a contribution from both NYWarrior and Henry Sugar
Edit: Added links from JSOnline and Providence Journal
