Hayward could give MU 13th biggest NBA presence

Only 1% of Division I college basketball players make the jump to the NBA each year, so the fact that Lazar Hayward could become the 8th former Marquette player drawing an NBA paycheck next year puts MU in elite company.

Lazar has shot up to a projected 38th pick in Thursday's draft (www.nbadraft.net), and all 16 times a Marquette player has gone in the first two rounds, he has played in the NBA. In fact, Wesley Matthews was the 14th MU player NOT drafted in the first two rounds to still make the NBA, meaning Lazar could be MUs 31st NBA player, and he could join seven former MU players who were drawing an NBA paycheck last season.

As for the future, DJO emerged as a potential future NBA player when he was selected as one of the Top 15 college guards by Chris Paul’s camp, and 5-stars like Vander Blue have a pretty good record of making the NBA (Note to Vander, we are talking about the 2014 draft for you AFTER your 4-year career at Marquette):

Colleges with the most NBA players, coaches and projected 2010 draft picks
1 UNC 23
2 Duke 18
3 UCLA 17
4 Kentucky 16
5 UConn 13
6 Kansas 13
7 Arizona 12
8 Texas 11
9 Ohio State 11
10 Florida 10
11 Georgia Tech 10
12 Notre Dame 9
13 Marquette 8
14 Alabama 8
15 Oklahoma 8
16 LSU 7
17 Memphis 7
18 Wake Forest 7
19 Syracuse 7
20 Southern California 7

Ed Davis’ projected 10th pick gives the Tar Heels 23 former players, while Jon Scheyer's rather shaky projection as the 52nd of 60 picks (14 spots behind Lazar), gives Duke 18 former players to break a tie with UCLA for 2nd.

Kentucky’s five projected picks starting with John Wall shoots them up to 4th place, while Kansas and Texas move up the list as the only other two teams with more than two projected picks this year.

Obviously, these counts won’t necessarily be the same as the actual rosters at the beginning of the next season. We could have our hearts broken like last year’s draft with Lazar not being called, Doc Rivers (or coaches Jim Boylan or Maurice Lucas for that matter) could hang it up, and Steve Novak or Travis Diener could always be cut, though Wes Matthews and Dwyane Wade look like pretty sure things to be back.

However, this is true of any of the teams listed. There are very few sure bets to be back as a player or coach. And we can still hope for McNeal or James to follow Tom Copa's steps by going oversees for a couple of years before coming back to play in the NBA.

The important thing is that when players like Vander Blue get down to their short list, they are only going to consider programs that have shown they can produce NBA players. With Buzz appearing to be able to develop players like Wes Matthews, Jimmy Butler and DJO, there are really only seven schools that can argue that they clearly offer a better chance for a player to make the NBA (Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA) .

Marquette is really on par with the other 13 schools on this list, and ahead of the other 327 Division I schools.

MU offers recruits the opportunity to play in front of the 10th largest crowds in the country, play for one of only 11 programs to make it to the NCAA tournament all of the last five years, and go to the only program in the country where they have this strong a chance to make the NBA AND don’t have to compete with football players for attention on campus. I mean really, why would any 4- or 5-star want to go anywhere else?

BIG EAST coaches recognize Hayward

The BIG EAST announced the coaches' pre-season 2009-2010 all-conference selections at media day this morning. Unlike the unprepared BIG EAST basketball beat writers, the coaches smartly placed Lazar Hayward on the first-team all conference squad. Congratulations, Lazar.

The coaches pick MU to finish 12th in the league this year.

2009-10 Preseason All-BIG EAST First Team
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (Player of the Year), F, Sr., 6-8, 255, Schererville, Ind.
Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati, G, Sr., 6-1, 190, Indianapolis, Ind.
Greg Monroe, Georgetown, C, So., 6-11, 247, New Orleans, La.
Lazar Hayward, Marquette, F, Sr., 6-6, 225, Buffalo, N.Y.
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova, G, Sr., 6-2, 195, Herndon, Va.
Da'Sean Butler, West Virginia, F, Sr., 6-7, 225, Newark, N.J.

2009-10 Preseason All-BIG EAST Second Team
Jerome Dyson, Connecticut, G, Sr., 6-3, 190, Potomac, Md.
Kemba Walker, Connecticut, G, So., 6-1, 172, Bronx, N.Y.
Samardo Samuels, Louisville, F, So., 6-9, 260, Trelawny, Jamaica
Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall, G, Jr., 6-5, 185, Bronx, N.Y.
Dominique Jones, USF, G, Jr., 6-4, 205, Lake Wales, Fla.
Devin Ebanks, West Virginia, F, So., 6-9, 210, Long Island City, N.Y.

* a tie in the balloting created six positions

2009-10 Preseason All-BIG EAST Honorable Mention
Stanley Robinson, Connecticut, F, Sr., 6-9, 210, Birmingham, Ala.
Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse, C, Sr., 6-9, 275, Lanham, Md

2009-10 BIG EAST Preseason Player of the Year
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

2009-10 BIG EAST Preseason Rookie of the Year
Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati


BIG EAST coaches pre-season poll

1. Villanova (10)
2. West Virginia (5)
3. Connecticut (1)
4. Louisville
5. Georgetown
6. Syracuse
7. Cincinnati
8. Notre Dame
9. Pittsburgh
10. Seton Hall
11. St. John's
12. Marquette
13. Providence
14. USF
15. Rutgers
16. DePaul

BIG EAST Media Day preview

The BIG EAST hosts its annual basketball media day today in Manhattan and a league-wide poll of beat writers shows no love for Marquette. In a poll conducted by the Syracuse Post-Standard, the writers pick MU to finish 12th in the conference this year --- and according to the same bunch Lazar Hayward is not one of the 15 best players in the league.

It is difficult to argue with MU being slotted into the bottom tier of the league, but to ignore Hayward's talent and productivity (he is the league's most efficient returning offensive player and grabs eight boards a night to boot) is a shocking oversight. We were annoyed when Jeff Goodman from Fox Sports left Hayward off his FIRST team, leading to a spirited message board debate arguing that Lazar is at least as good as Greg Monroe. Not only that, but we've wondered if Lazar could have a better senior season than Novak.

Kemba Walker, Mike Rosario and Stanley Robinson over Lazar Hayward? While there is a natural attention-deficit penalty paid by elite players on bad teams, the lack of recognition for Hayward s wholly unnatural. Realize that USF's Dominique Jones and Rutgers' overrated gunner Mike Rosario are on squads picked to finish below the Golden Eagles this year. Some players, like Stanley Robinson, are on the list purely because of the team they play for rather than an appreciation for that player's history of inconsistency. How else can one account for Robinson making the pre-season list after scoring in double digits just five times as a junior, even as the Huskies lost one of their leading scorers late in the season. Meanwhile a player like Devin Ebanks makes the first-team purely on his reputation from high school despite seasonal averages that fall well short of anybody else on the writers' first-team squad.

These BIG EAST beat writers need to wake up.

Below are the results of the poll.

1. Villanova 24 (11)
2. West Virginia 31 (6 )
3. Connecticut 58
4. Georgetown 75
5. Louisville 87
6. Syracuse 110
7. Notre Dame 128
8. Cincinnati 137
9. Pittsburgh 140
10. Seton Hall 159
11. St. John’s 191
12. Marquette 195
13. Rutgers 232
14. South Florida 240
15. Providence 242
16. DePaul 268

All-Big East First Team
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (unanimous)
Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia
Devin Ebanks, West Virginia

All-Big East Second Team
Dominique Jones, South Florida
Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall
Kemba Walker, Connecticut
Jerome Dyson, Connecticut
Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati

All-Big East Third Team
Corey Fisher, Villanova
Corey Stokes, Villanova
Mike Rosario, Rutgers
Stanley Robinson, Connecticut
Samardo Samuels, Louisville

Player of the Year
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

If you're interested in BIG EAST Media Day details on content that will be made available this week can be found here. Buzz Williams will be joined by seniors Lazar Hayward, David Cubillan and Maurice Acker at today's event.

Lazar needs to be 3rd star for Elite 8/Final 4 Run

Historically, it takes three stars to make a Final Four run. For purposes of this article, I will define stars as players who will be drafted by the NBA after the season in question, or the following season.

This is the best predictor of which teams will make a deep NCAA run that I have found. When going through all Division I teams from the 2000-01 season to last year, there have been 46 teams with three or more future NBA draft choices and almost half of them – 46% - have made the Final Four. By contrast there have been 91 teams with just two future NBA draftees, and only 3 of them (3%) have made the Final Four. Texas and Kansas in – gulp – 2003, and LSU in 2006.

Granted, teams with MORE THAN 3 stars have been almost a sure lock for the Final Four, but even teams with exactly 3 future draftees have made the Elite Eight 48% of the time and the Final Four 35% of the time. The following is the breakdown:

Drafted players	Total Teams	Elite 8	%Elite 8	Final Four	% Final Four	NCAA Champions
4+	15	13	87%	10	67%	Du 01, Md 02, Fl 06-07, Ka 08
3	31	15	48%	11	35%	UCon 04, NC 05
2	91	13	14%	3	3%	None
1	283	13	5%	6	2%	Syr 03
0	2200	10	0.5%	2	0.1%	None

So the question now is, does Marquette belong in the “3” row, with an even shot at the Elite 8 and a better than 1-in-3 shot at the Final Four, or in the “2” row where an Elite 8 is a longshot?

With Jerel McNeal knocking on the door of the 1st round at No. 32 in the latest nbadraft.net mock draft, and Wes Matthews closing fast at No. 50, Marquette clearly has two stars ready for the big dance. The variable here is Lazar Hayward, who has been in and out of the 2010 mock draft at nbadraft.net. I believe the NCAA run hinges on whether or not MU gets the ball to Lazar and he plays at that NBA-draftee level down the stretch.

If Lazar is NBA draftee No. 3, then we belong in this group:

North Carolina
UConn
USC
LSU
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Tennessee
Texas
Wake Forest

This wouldn't be the list I'd draw up of the 10 teams most likely to make the Elite 8, but based on the strong correlation between draftees and the NCAA bracket, you may want to put a couple of these down for extra upset wins.

If not, and it’s just Wes and Jerel, then we belong in this group.

Arizona
Arizona St.
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Certainly Oklahoma and other one-draftee teams can remember Syracuse’s 2003 run behind Carmelo Anthony as the only time a team with fewer than 2 NBA draftees made it all the way, but the odds are against them.

I’m looking forward to Lazar playing like the true superstar that he is for this big run.