Cracketology: Contingency Plans

It's rare that nearly every game on Sunday seems to have some level of meaning aside from just the automatic bid, but with the exception of the American Final, all of the results will impact someone on the seed list. With that in mind, I'm going to go into this with the following expectations, picking the team that would rank higher in the seed list to win all of their respective finals:

• YALE over Penn in the Ivy League Final
• VANDERBILT over Arkansas in the SEC Final
• VCU over Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Final
• SOUTH FLORIDA over Wichita in the American Final
• MICHIGAN over Purdue in the Big 10 Final

Now let's talk contingency plans:

PENN WINS IVY LEAGUE: If the upset happens, Yale is eliminated and every team from 50-Northern Iowa to 57-Wright State moves up one spot. This means that High Point becomes a 12-seed, Hawaii becomes a 13-seed, and Penn slots in as the new 57, making them a 14-seed.

ARKANSAS WINS SEC: Vanderbilt moved up to the last 3-seed on the expectation of being SEC Champs. If the Razorbacks win, Vandy and Nebraska swap spots. Nebraska is the last 3-seed and Vanderbilt is the top 4-seed. Arkansas remains unchanged.

DAYTON WINS ATLANTIC 10: If the Flyers pull the upset, that eliminates 45-San Diego State from the field and Dayton is slotted into #45 overall and an 11-seed. VCU stays at #43 but is now playing in Dayton as the second to last at-large.

WICHITA STATE WINS AMERICAN: If the Shockers shock the Bulls, they simply take their spot. No change, the American champ is #46 overall and an 11-seed.

PURDUE WINS BIG 10: If the Boilermakers win, Arizona would jump Michigan to #2 overall as the Wolverines would fall to #3, but both would remain on the 1-line. Purdue would jump up ahead of Michigan State to #8 overall as the last 2-seed.

We'll wrap with a quick bubble discussion, then have the final projected Seed List.

Ultimately, I went with San Diego State over Auburn and Texas. It was three teams for one spot. While San Diego State was the lowest in WAB (#47, -0.15 score) that is on par with Xavier from last year (#49, -0.12) who was the last team in. Auburn (#44, +0.40) has some nice wins, but 16 total losses would be the most ever for an at-large team and 17-16 would be the worst winning percentage for an at-large team. Auburn is also 11-16 in Q1-3, which would be by far the worst ever record in that range (last year's Texas was 13-15, the only sub-.500 Q1-3 record to earn an at-large). Texas (#46, +0.00) also has good wins, but they are 10-14 in Q1-3, which would also be the worst ever selected. San Diego State may not have the top end wins, but also didn't have the opportunity volume that Auburn and Texas had. They did, however, go 15-11 in Q1-3 and don't have any of the fatal flaw numbers the other two have.

I feel like no matter which team I pick here, I'll be wrong. This decision gets easier if Dayton wins the A-10 and knocks this spot completely out of the field, but for now I'm going with San Diego State as the last team in. 

This is my best shot at a bracket, but it could change a lot in the next few hours. The Committee will definitely have contingencies.

Cracketology: Another 48 Hours

Did Nijel Pack & Oklahoma do enough to earn an at-large bid?

Photo by Morgan Givens | University of Oklahoma

We're drawing closer to the NCAA Selection Show. As I write this, we are two days out from seeing the full bracket. So where do things stand? Let's dig in with a quick look at the biggest questions facing the Selection Committee between now and Sunday.

Who are the most likely bid thieves?

• Atlantic 10 - Dayton: Over the last month, the Flyers are playing like the best team in the A-10, ranked #27 in T-Rank ahead of #40 VCU. Included in that stretch is a decisive win over St. Louis, who they play in Saturday's semifinal.
• Big East - Seton Hall: By the time you read this, the Pirates may be done, but if they can get by St. John's (they played within single digits twice), the Pirates have a win over UConn each year since the Huskies rejoined the Big East.
• MAC - Akron: The MAC is guaranteed to have a bid thief with Miami (OH) eliminated, and the Zips were the metric favorite to win the automatic bid from the start. They defeated the three remaining semifinalists by an average of 13.0 ppg in the regular season.
• Mountain West - San Diego State: The Aztecs are favored over New Mexico, but whomever wins that game will be the best shot at a bid thief. It's likely too late for either to earn an at-large, so the only path to a second Mountain West bid is if Utah State loses.
• SEC - Oklahoma: The Sooners are getting some late at-large buzz, but it's reminiscent of 2022 Texas A&M, who also had a long January into February losing streak only to try to make up for that in the SEC Tournament. I think it's automatic bid or bust for Oklahoma.

Who will land on the right side of the bubble?

• In - Missouri: The Tigers might be sweating with some bid thieves, but they have five wins over the field including beating Florida. They also have wins over the two closest SEC contenders, Auburn and Oklahoma. They should hear their name on Selection Sunday.
• In - SMU: The Mustangs are in, but bid thieves could certainly knock them out. Their four Q1 wins and 45 WAB should be enough, but all it would take is a few bid thieves to knock them out.
• Barely In - VCU: The Rams would be well-suited to make bracketologists lives easier by winning the A-10 auto bid. Their 39 resume average and 42 WAB is appealing, but they don't have any wins over another at-large team in the field, with neutral court wins over South Florida and Virginia Tech along with a road win at Dayton the highlights of their resume. If there's another 1-2 bid thieves and VCU doesn't punch their own ticket, they could easily be left out.
• Barely In - Texas: The Longhorns are only 17-14, a mark that rarely makes the field, but they have 6 wins over at-large teams in the field. Their WAB of 46 is as bubbly as can be and they are quite simply the best of a group of not great options. 
• Barely Out - Oklahoma: If you put Oklahoma's resume up against the rest of the bubble with no context, they might be in over VCU or Texas. But wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M came in the SEC Tournament and it's hard to know how much those will be valued. No one had this team in 48 hours ago, not sure I can get there because of two wins since then.
• Barely Out - San Diego State/New Mexico: These teams are the Spider-Man meme. Separated by 1 in NET, 1 in WAB, both are 2-6 in Q1, have 8 Q1+2 wins, and have losses in Q3. I just don't think either have quite done enough. They likely need the auto-bid.
• Out - Auburn: Yes, they played a tough schedule and won some big games. However they also have 16 losses and are one game above a .500 record. No team has ever made the at-large field with that many losses or that poor a winning percentage. They had chances and didn't make the most of them.

What is Miami-Ohio's Fate?

Where the Redhawks land is one of the most debated conversations at the moment. Despite their loss to UMass, that was still a Q3 loss and while it will prevent them from moving up, we're going to stick with their resume average of 39.7 and as a result they landed on the 10-line as the 40th overall team. The seed was primarily based on two factors.

First, last year's Memphis had a 17.0 resume average and a 52.3 predictive average. Typically, the average of those two would predict the seed, with a slight weighting advantage to the predictives, which would suggest Memphis should've been an 8 or 9 seed. Instead, the Selection Committee followed their resume average and gave them a 5-seed. Second, this team started 31-0 and there's no way that a team with a 31-1 record should be at risk of having to play a game in Dayton just to get to the Thursday/Friday games.

With that in mind, the Redhawks have a 39.7 resume average and a 91.0 predictive average. I'm throwing out the predictives like the Committee did for Memphis last year and strictly following their resume average for a 10-seed. Even if there are four more bid thieves, I think Miami should be above Dayton, no matter what line they land on.

At this point, I'm not sure if it's surprising or just the universe trying to tell me something that following the bracketing principles, Miami (OH) is once again facing Miami (FL), this time because the Redhawks were the last 10-seed placed and the only opening was against the Hurricanes. Suppose at some point, you just have to lean into the bit.

Okay...here's the current Seed List and Bracket. It's primarily based on Thursday's results, but nothing today has significantly changed that, if anything it reinforced what we already had, largely thanks to the Wisconsin win over Illinois.

Multi-bid Leagues

SEC: 10

Big 10: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

WCC: 3

A-10: 2

MAC: 2

Cracketology: Championship Week is Here!

It's been a long time since we got one of these posted, but this seems as good a time as any to reset where the bracket stands with less than a week until Selection Sunday. Let's talk through some of the key decisions from the top to the bottom of the Seed List:

The Protected Seeds: With Marquette's upset of UConn, the top-8 may have a slightly different order but it's hard to see any of those teams not currently landing on those lines. Iowa State or Purdue might be able to sneak up to the 2-line, Nebraska and Texas Tech are pretty close on the 3/4 cut, but these feel pretty solid. Vanderbilt or Arkansas might have a good case for a 4-seed with a run, but will the Selection Committee weigh a Sunday result that heavily to potentially upend the entire bracket by moving a team that impacts pod location? It feels unlikely.

The Not So Big East: UConn is solidly on the 2-line and still has a shot at a 1-seed if they win the Big East Tournament and Florida bows out early. St. John's looks like a solid 5-seed while Villanova is comfortably on the 7-line. Beyond that, the only chance at any extra bids is a bid thief. No one else can earn an at-large out of this league. If Marquette can beat Xavier, repeat their upset against UConn, and pull a stunner on Friday Night at the Garden, who knows? Maybe there were really 2 in 14,000,605 possibilities of a Marquette bid.

Hard Calls #1 - Wisconsin: Pop quiz! How many teams have 3 road wins over top-10 teams in the NET? The answer is one, and it's the Badgers. The consensus has Bucky on the 6-line, but we pushed them up to the 5-line because of these quality wins. North Carolina might have a better top to bottom resume, but will be without likely lottery pick Caleb Wilson in the NCAA Tournament. We believe Wisconsin's wins at Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue boost the Badgers higher than most expect, and don't be shocked if they can play their way up as high as the 4-line.

Hard Calls #2 - Miami, OH: First, I'll note that the Redhawks are NOT in as the MAC automatic bid, they are an at-large. This is because until a conference champ is determined, we use the highest NET ranking rather than league record to determine our auto-bids. Most seem to think if Miami is an at-large, their terrible predictive metrics could push them to the 11-line and possibly even Dayton. I don't think so. Last year, Memphis had poor predictives, but their resume average indicated they deserved a 5-seed. I was stunned when I had Memphis as an 8-seed, roughly splitting their resume and predictives, but they landed as the 5-seed the resume suggested. I think Miami will be similarly benefitted this year. If they're an at-large, I'll seed them one line below where their resume average indicates they should be (currently 33.7 would be a 9-seed). If they win the automatic bid, I'll seed them in line with their resume average. As a result, I expect the Redhawks will land between the 8-10 seed lines rather than the 11-seed most have them slotted into.

Hard Calls #3: Last Team In: Usually the last few are difficult, but the resumes of Missouri, Texas, and VCU, all teams I project to play in Dayton, were pretty clearly on the inside of the field. The last spot, however, was very difficult. I started the day with Stanford as the Last Team In. Their 49 WAB is a little lower than I'd like, but five Quadrant 1 wins and a winning Quadrant 1+2 record looked attractive...until they lost to Pitt, which will knock their WAB out of the top-50 and gives them a fourth Quadrant 3 loss. After that, it was between Indiana, SMU, and Virginia Tech. I didn't like picking the Hoosiers, but they had better top-end wins and a better WAB than SMU. Ultimately, this spot will likely be taken by a bid thief, but as it stands we're going with Indiana.

Here is the Seed List and Bracket as it stands:

Happiest week of the season?

 Well, we didn't see that coming but it made it all the more fun. #mubb goes 2-0 for the first time since the first week of the season which includes a bit of a stunner over #4 UCONN. #scrambledeggs breaks down the victory over the Huskies and spends a little time on the PC beat down. We then talk this week in Marquette history before turning to the conference tournament ahead, where anything can happen. While a long off season is staring us in the face, we're hoping much like the plague victim in Monty Python and the Holy Grail "I'm not dead yet". Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/32mpvi3dwxidx34m/2026_March_8_Happy_Pod9oq7z.mp3

 

The warning lights are back on

Well, we thought we were getting better and then DePaul showed up against #mubb. #ScrambledEggs is back and talking about a very up and down week. The most important result was how the team looked overall against DePaul which resulted in the first regular season sweep of Marquette in 4 decades. The first half was a clear return to the early season performances that had us all depressed. We try to process the week's results and also put it all into context with the upcoming off season. We also put a marker down for what we think next years team has to do to avoid a significant fan revolt and/or major changes within leadership. We then look at the week ahead and the odds of winning a game before closing out with memories and Markus Howard. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/397nynneucysq7si/2026_March_1_almost_done9tix5.mp3

 

We Gotta Talk about the Upperclassmen

The #mubb season continues to trudge along with little green shoots that are generally overwhelmed by late game glitches and segments of incompetence. We kick off the pod not with a break down of the St John's game but evaluating the upperclassmen in general and the seniors specifically. This is brought on in reaction to commentary from Shaka Smart in his post game press conference. We then pivot to the Marquette moment in history which highlights the peak Buzz experience. We close out the pod with discussion on Dr. Strange's one path to an NCAA berth and the week ahead. Enjoy!

 

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/2id5g5t8qhwjbjxb/2026_Feb_22_Chase_stinks6q1ry.mp3

 

Cracketology: Top-16 Preview

Dusty May & Michigan are comfortably the top overall seed

Photo by Rey Del Rio | Getty Images

 

It feels like it's a week late, but tomorrow bracketologists get their annual reset as the current Top-16 Reveal will give everyone a snapshot of where the top teams in the country stand and who's just outside looking in. Cracketology has your preview of what we expect to see when the Reveal comes out. We'll talk a bit about the toughest decisions on each seed line and why teams landed where they did.

1-Michigan Wolverines: This might have been controversial a week ago, but the Wolverines are now the only 1-loss team in the country, they rank #1 in six of the seven team sheet metrics, are tied for the lead in Quadrant 1 wins and lead the nation in Quadrant 1+2 wins. It was the right call a week ago, it is an easy call today.

2-Duke Blue Devils: Duke's metrics are second only to Michigan, they are tied in Quadrant 1 and second in Quadrant 1+2 wins, but where they separate from the Wildcats is their six Quadrant 1A wins to Arizona's four. Doing that against a tougher schedule also reinforces their position here.

3-Arizona Wildcats: Despite their two losses, Arizona is still clearly a 1-seed. The metrics, Quadrant 1 wins, and what they've done against a tougher schedule than any of the next three teams make them a lock for the top line.

4-Houston Cougars: The positive case for Houston is that their predictive average puts them here. Compared to Iowa State they have more Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1+2 wins against a tougher schedule. Compared to UConn, they have more Quadrant 1+2 wins and far better predictives. However...Iowa State did just beat Houston, albeit at home. If Wednesday results aren't factored in, UConn likely would still be on the top line. Close call, but at the end of the day we're going with Houston because I believe on a neutral court they're the better team than Iowa State or UConn. For conspiracy theory fans, Houston on the top line Saturday makes a lot of sense because it sets up all four 1-seeds playing each other later that same day (Michigan/Duke at MSG while Arizona is at Houston).

5-Iowa State Cyclones: While Iowa State has a decent 1-seed argument, none of their team sheet metrics are in the top-4 and they lack the Quadrant 1 wins to be higher than this. If the Selection Committee emphasizes the result from Hilton the Cyclones could be higher, but they will certainly be no lower than a 2-seed.

6-Connecticut Huskies: From a resume perspective, especially the important Wins Above Bubble, UConn looks like they should be higher. But the loss to Creighton will likely be factored in based on last year's precedent, and that's a loss neither Houston nor Iowa State have. The Huskies do have the better record and a neutral court head-to-head win over Illinois, which is why they hold on to this spot.

7-Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois has the predictive metrics to be on the top line but too many losses and not good enough resume metrics to get up there. A win over Michigan next week could get them in consideration, but it's the only real needle moving game left on their schedule before the Big 10 Tournament so this is probably their ceiling.

8-Purdue Boilermakers: Everything about Purdue's resume screams 2-seed. Metrically they are right in line there and they have a great win profile with no bad losses. While this isn't the season the Boilermaker fans were hoping for, having six of the seven metrics between 5-8 should have them safely as a 2-seed.

9-Kansas Jayhawks: The top end wins are good enough for the top line, but loss volume and poor predictives compared to the teams ahead of them keep Kansas here. They still get Houston at home and go to Arizona, so the resume wins to move up are on the schedule, as are some easier opponents to juice the predictive numbers. If Kansas can get their predictives into single digits they could be a 2-seed, or even a 1-seed with some help.

10-Florida Gators: The predictive metrics say they should be higher, but loss volume and relatively poor resume metrics drag them down. Florida's resume is solid but there aren't major needle moving opportunities left for them. This may be their ceiling, but they are likely the most dangerous 3-Seed when the actual bracket comes out.

11-Nebraska Cornhuskers: Fans might think Nebraska is playing poorly after starting 20-0 before losing four of six. However, in that stretch they are still ranked #16 in Torvik and their kenpom ranking has actually improved from #12 when they lost their undefeated record at Michigan until today where they sit at #11. While they may not have the fortune that fueled their great start, this is still a deserving 3-seed. One thing to watch, if they end up on a cut line between the 2/3 or 3/4, their non-conference strength of schedule could drag them lower than expected.

12-Gonzaga Bulldogs: The good news is Gonzaga's twenty-six wins are tied with Miami-Ohio for the most in the country. The bad news is their two losses are a 40-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan and an embarrassing Quadrant 3 loss at Portland, the only such loss among our projected Top-16. It's hard to seed this team as their numbers are more reflective of a 4-seed, but looking at their resume it's hard to put any of the 4-seeds ahead of them.

13-Michigan State Spartans: Sparty is the team I most considered against Gonzaga, but more than double the losses, worse in five of the seven team sheet metrics, and not definitively better in terms of win quality were all reasons I couldn't push them higher. I'm comfortable with them as a 4-seed.

14-Vanderbilt Commodores: They've got a great win profile and metrics comparable to Michigan State. The biggest difference is that while Vandy has a better overall win collection, they don't have any single result that can match Michigan State's win over Illinois. When it's this close, those are the fine lines that separate teams.

15-Virginia Cavaliers: What really jumps out is Virginia's 4-0 record against Quadrant 1A opponents. While their metrics are all right on the edge of the 4/5 lines, they've got enough at the top to justify inclusion tomorrow.

16-Texas Tech Red Raiders: Honestly, if any 4-seed shows up ahead of Gonzaga, this might be the pick. Due to the guidance given to the media committee yesterday, Texas Tech was dropped down because of J.T. Toppin's season-ending injury. While they have the best collection of top-tier wins (Duke, Arizona, Houston) their metrics even with Toppin were more fitting of a 4-seed than a 3-seed and it's hard to not see them falling off without him. They will likely fall from the 3-seed they could have been, the should still keep their place in the Top-16 until we're actually able to see how they do without Toppin. Their next two are home games against Kansas State and Cincinnati so they should get a chance to acclimate to their new lineups before traveling to Ames.

17-Alabama Crimson Tide: If Alabama is in the Top-16, the resume metrics and elite schedule will be the reasons. However they lack the massive quality wins of a Texas Tech and the overall profile of a Michigan State or Vanderbilt. If they are included, I think it might be Virginia that's left out. Another factor that won't be mentioned but might factor in is Charles Bediako. Alabama added three wins over tourney teams with him in the lineup and now that he's been ruled ineligible, the Selection Committee may quietly knock them down a couple spots because of it.

18-Tennessee Volunteers: The predictive average indicates Top-16 and the Volunteers have a win over Houston that's aging very well, but there just isn't enough depth at the top of the resume to match the teams ahead of them. 

19-Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas is the team where everything is close but not quite good enough. They don't have a single metric in the top-16. Their six Quadrant 1 wins are good, but they lack the truly elite wins and overall Quadrant 1+2 win volume of teams ahead of them.

Here's the full seed list and bracket:

Multibid Leagues

SEC: 11

Big 10: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

WCC: 3