Cracketology: Big East Win Targets

Kevin Willard has Villanova in good shape for the 2026 NCAA Tournament

Photo by Ella Johnson | The Villanovan

As the calendar turns to February, things look pretty bleak for the Big East. Just three teams are safely in the field at the moment and everyone else seems to be moving away from the bubble rather than towards it. Today we'll take a look at current Wins Above Bubble scores from T-Rank and use that to calculate what the Big East needs from its at-large contenders to get over the hump. Bear in mind that right now, there are 27 teams between +1.0 and -1.0 WAB, so we're looking for Big East teams to get above +1.0 to be considered on the right side of the bubble. So what to Big East teams need to do to secure NCAA bids? Let's look:

UConn Huskies (21-1, +7.7 WAB): 0 wins

Dan Hurley's team could lose all of their remaining games and still safely be in the field, likely as a single-digit seed. They would take some bad losses along the way, so the Selection Committee would certainly knock them down a bit, but they would still have a +2.65 WAB and will be dancing no matter what happens.

St. John's Red Storm (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 4 wins

The Johnnies need to go 4-6 the rest of the way to feel secure. That would give them a +1.75 WAB that should be enough. They are favored in all their remaining games except against UConn. If they want to move their seed up, they really need to pick up at least one of the UConn games. There just isn't much left on the schedule for them to really improve their resume.

Villanova Wildcats (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 5 wins

In his first year at Villanova, Kevin Willard should feel pretty secure of dancing. They don't have a ton of heft at the top of the resume, but they are favorites in 8 of their remaining 10 and 3 of their 5 road games are against teams in the bottom half of the league. A 5-5 record would give them a +1.55 WAB. Like St. John's, there isn't a ton of room to move up, with the late February games against UConn and at St. John's being their only real resume movers.

Shaheen Holloway is hoping to edge the Pirates inside the bubble

Photo by Mason Bashkoff | Seton Hall Athletics

Seton Hall Pirates (16-6, +0.7 WAB): 6 wins

The Pirates are getting back on track after a four-game losing skid, but it doesn't get easier with road games at Villanova, Creighton, and Butler in their next four. The downside for them is they only have 9 games left and are underdogs in 6. What would really help are wins against the three teams above them as they currently only have one projected win over the field (N.C. State). If they don't win at 'Nova on Wednesday, they likely will need to either beat UConn or St. John's in the last week of the season to feel safe. Getting to 6-3 down the stretch would put them at +1.97 WAB and almost certainly secure. 5-4 would have them on the bubble and given the parity on the bubble this year, particularly with their lack of high-end wins, it probably wouldn't be enough.

Butler Bulldogs (13-9, -1.3 WAB): 8 wins

Thad Matta's seat has to be feeling a bit warm. Losing at St. John's is acceptable, but a home loss to Georgetown likely ended their fading bubble hopes. They need to go 8-1 down the stretch to feel at all comfortable, which would give them a +1.66 WAB.

Creighton Blue Jays (12-10, -1.6 WAB): 8 wins

Greg McDermott has seen his team drop 3 of 4 with two of those losses being to bottom feeders Providence and Marquette on the road. They are hanging on by a thread with only 9 games remaining. The Jays are also underdogs in 6 of those with 5 away from home. They need a miracle. 8-1 would qualify as a miracle and put them at +1.66 WAB.

Ed Cooley looks to have thrown away any NCAA hopes

Photo by Ian Bethune | Storrs Central

Georgetown (-2.5 WAB) & Xavier (-2.6 WAB): Win Out

Both of these teams are effectively done and would have to go undefeated the rest of the regular season. For the Hoyas, that would put them at +1.55 WAB while Xavier would get to +1.98 WAB. Put this in the virtually impossible bin, and note these teams do play each other on February 28th so even if both get red hot, they won't both finish in the at-large places.

DePaul (-3.1 WAB), Providence (-4.5 WAB), & Marquette (-6.5 WAB): 4 wins at MSG

DePaul is the only one of these that can get over 0.0 WAB by winning out, but their bad losses and lack of quality wins will have them on the outside looking in. Both Providence and Marquette have already taken on too much water to get above zero, so their only hope is a four-game run in the Big Apple.

Let's look at the current seed list and field:

Multibid Leagues

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

A-10: 2

MAC: 2

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2

Green shoots of growth?

 Welcome back to #scrambledeggs #mubb fans, we've got some growth (we think). Keep in mind the season is lost and we are viewing things through the lens of what do we have for next year but this past week was actually semi-fun for us. We talk about Nigel setting a freshman record in an improbable victory over Providence and the return of athletic Damarius Owens. For the MU memory this week, it's a special one that directly involved your podcast folks. Lastly we then turn to the next three games (SOMEONE is leaving for vacation and won't be on the pod next week) to talk about where, if anywhere, we can see a win coming. As always, enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/42hc4taidzuxe45u/2026_Jan_25_Not_Terrible8t2ei.mp3

 

The one where we talk about the future

 Welcome back #mubb, it's another week of losses and conversations. We initially discuss the performance against St Johns and DePaul and search for positives (DO is turning a corner?). We then use that as a pivot into fan reaction to the team and potentially the most critical offseason in the modern era. We then look ahead to the Providence and Butler games to see if there is any hope this week for victories. I know things aren't good, but at least we have each other. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/d792x7sc9id3vcah/2026_Jan_18_More_Ls9b74v.mp3

 

Cracketology: Marquette-Free Zone

 

Silas Demary has UConn back among the nation's elite

Photo by Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images

While this is a Marquette blog, I personally ruled out Marquette's at-large hopes with the loss to Maryland. I tried to keep hope alive but the 5-6 non-con record meant Marquette needed to go 15-5 in Big East play just to get on the bubble, and their 1-6 conference record make that an impossibility. Let's move on to some early takeaways from our first seed list and bracket of the year.

Talent Overload at the Top

While the 1-seeds (Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Duke) were all clearly deserving, in any other year you could make a case for anyone through #10 overall Vanderbilt to be a 1-seed in mid-January. This is a loaded season with immense talent at the top of the sport. Every team on the top three seed-lines are viable national title contenders given what they've already accomplished.

This isn't just borne out by the eye test but by the numbers as well. Last year was widely regarded as one of the strongest in recent memory because of the strength of the one-seeds, but the top of the sport is almost undeniably better and deeper this year than last. Compare the number of elite teams in terms of kenpom's Adjusted EM (measures team efficiency) and T-Rank's WAB (measures resume quality). There are simply more elite teams this year than there have been in any season since COVID, and generally speaking as many teams this year at the top of the sport as there were the past 4 years combined.

Using metric comparisons, the 2-seeds and 3-seeds of this year look more like the 1-seeds if they'd had these seasons in any of the previous four years. The combination of what is the strongest freshmen class in years along with more effective transfer portal usage has really strengthened the sport. In addition, teams are scheduling better, which has led to a more entertaining regular slate of games. You could very well argue the sport has never been better, and it should make for an incredible tournament.

Big East Hoping for Five Bids

Today we have 4 Big East teams in the field. 1-seed UConn, 6-seed Villanova, 8-seed St. John's, and 10-seed Seton Hall. While Creighton isn't in our first eight teams out, they were considered and could make a push toward a tourney bid. The Jays have been better since the start of league play and with home games against UConn, Villanova, and Seton Hall still to come, there are some resume opportunities as long as they don't drop any games that would really hurt them (surviving Georgetown at home in overtime was a must-win).

If I was setting an over-under number today for the league, it would be 3.5 bids, but there is a real possibility at 5. The only chance at more than that would be for one of Xavier, Butler, Georgetown, DePaul, Providence, or Marquette to win the Big East tournament. None of those teams look to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid based on how they've played so far this season.

Interesting Bubble Names

It isn't just seeing New Mexico and George Mason on the right side of the bubble, but Miami of Ohio would have a real shot if they don't win the MAC based on their volume of wins and WAB. On the outside, however, it's a lot of high-majors. In addition, just three at-large bids are projected to go to teams outside the Power 5 leagues (those two and 8-seed Saint Mary's). The power conference takeover is here, and the days of 4-5 bids from leagues like the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, even with the Pac-12 (temporarily) dissolved, seem to be a thing of the past.

Here's the Seed List and Bracket:

Multibid Leagues

ACC: 10

SEC: 10

Big 10: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2

Maybe we bounced off the bottom?

 We're back with another #mubb podcast and you'll find that we aren't quite as depressed as before. We review the teams performance in a nailbiting win against Xavier that shouldn't have been nailbiting and a nailbiting loss to Nova which we were surprised was so close. We talk about this teams lack of clutch and transitioning to players who have more upside as young players than others who've started or gotten extended run the last two months. We then celebrate a fun memory in #mubb history that is very much part of the visual media that a podcast isn't. Then we turn to the week ahead and while we don't think winning in the Garden is possible, this team could put up some fight against DePaul, which would be nice. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/4g5h59eyk42b3d36/2026_Jan_12_Less_Crappyaefu3.mp3

 

Still doomy but slightly less so

Hey all, new year same #mubb. Team still struggles offensively and can't lock down defensively when they need it but generally speaking the play has been better the last week. We talk about mostly, the Seton Hall game from this past week to frame the team performance. We then talk about #mubb memories past and close out on one of the last few hopes to break the losing steak, playing Xavier at home. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/mjz23xd5s4r2uzkb/2026_Jan_4_still_suck834dv.mp3

 

Let's hope this is rock bottom for the season but that seems unlikely

Happy holidays #mubb and soon to be happy new year in 2026. We weren't planning to pod prior to this weeks games, wanting to take time off during Christmas and all, but well, the program had other thoughts. As I'm sure you are aware it was announced that Zaide Lowery is no longer with the team which while not good isn't entirely surprising. However, the way it was announced and then the program responded to a troll post has turned it into a whole thing. So we chat about that, then we talk the games this week. We close out the pod with a new and, we hope, fun segment for fans. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/tmw7q4ryyag72qww/2025_Dec_28_Zaide9no1q.mp3