Dusty May & Michigan are comfortably the top overall seed
Photo by Rey Del Rio | Getty Images
It feels like it's a week late, but tomorrow bracketologists get their annual reset as the current Top-16 Reveal will give everyone a snapshot of where the top teams in the country stand and who's just outside looking in. Cracketology has your preview of what we expect to see when the Reveal comes out. We'll talk a bit about the toughest decisions on each seed line and why teams landed where they did.
1-Michigan Wolverines: This might have been controversial a week ago, but the Wolverines are now the only 1-loss team in the country, they rank #1 in six of the seven team sheet metrics, are tied for the lead in Quadrant 1 wins and lead the nation in Quadrant 1+2 wins. It was the right call a week ago, it is an easy call today.
2-Duke Blue Devils: Duke's metrics are second only to Michigan, they are tied in Quadrant 1 and second in Quadrant 1+2 wins, but where they separate from the Wildcats is their six Quadrant 1A wins to Arizona's four. Doing that against a tougher schedule also reinforces their position here.
3-Arizona Wildcats: Despite their two losses, Arizona is still clearly a 1-seed. The metrics, Quadrant 1 wins, and what they've done against a tougher schedule than any of the next three teams make them a lock for the top line.
4-Houston Cougars: The positive case for Houston is that their predictive average puts them here. Compared to Iowa State they have more Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1+2 wins against a tougher schedule. Compared to UConn, they have more Quadrant 1+2 wins and far better predictives. However...Iowa State did just beat Houston, albeit at home. If Wednesday results aren't factored in, UConn likely would still be on the top line. Close call, but at the end of the day we're going with Houston because I believe on a neutral court they're the better team than Iowa State or UConn. For conspiracy theory fans, Houston on the top line Saturday makes a lot of sense because it sets up all four 1-seeds playing each other later that same day (Michigan/Duke at MSG while Arizona is at Houston).
5-Iowa State Cyclones: While Iowa State has a decent 1-seed argument, none of their team sheet metrics are in the top-4 and they lack the Quadrant 1 wins to be higher than this. If the Selection Committee emphasizes the result from Hilton the Cyclones could be higher, but they will certainly be no lower than a 2-seed.
6-Connecticut Huskies: From a resume perspective, especially the important Wins Above Bubble, UConn looks like they should be higher. But the loss to Creighton will likely be factored in based on last year's precedent, and that's a loss neither Houston nor Iowa State have. The Huskies do have the better record and a neutral court head-to-head win over Illinois, which is why they hold on to this spot.
7-Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois has the predictive metrics to be on the top line but too many losses and not good enough resume metrics to get up there. A win over Michigan next week could get them in consideration, but it's the only real needle moving game left on their schedule before the Big 10 Tournament so this is probably their ceiling.
8-Purdue Boilermakers: Everything about Purdue's resume screams 2-seed. Metrically they are right in line there and they have a great win profile with no bad losses. While this isn't the season the Boilermaker fans were hoping for, having six of the seven metrics between 5-8 should have them safely as a 2-seed.
9-Kansas Jayhawks: The top end wins are good enough for the top line, but loss volume and poor predictives compared to the teams ahead of them keep Kansas here. They still get Houston at home and go to Arizona, so the resume wins to move up are on the schedule, as are some easier opponents to juice the predictive numbers. If Kansas can get their predictives into single digits they could be a 2-seed, or even a 1-seed with some help.
10-Florida Gators: The predictive metrics say they should be higher, but loss volume and relatively poor resume metrics drag them down. Florida's resume is solid but there aren't major needle moving opportunities left for them. This may be their ceiling, but they are likely the most dangerous 3-Seed when the actual bracket comes out.
11-Nebraska Cornhuskers: Fans might think Nebraska is playing poorly after starting 20-0 before losing four of six. However, in that stretch they are still ranked #16 in Torvik and their kenpom ranking has actually improved from #12 when they lost their undefeated record at Michigan until today where they sit at #11. While they may not have the fortune that fueled their great start, this is still a deserving 3-seed. One thing to watch, if they end up on a cut line between the 2/3 or 3/4, their non-conference strength of schedule could drag them lower than expected.
12-Gonzaga Bulldogs: The good news is Gonzaga's twenty-six wins are tied with Miami-Ohio for the most in the country. The bad news is their two losses are a 40-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan and an embarrassing Quadrant 3 loss at Portland, the only such loss among our projected Top-16. It's hard to seed this team as their numbers are more reflective of a 4-seed, but looking at their resume it's hard to put any of the 4-seeds ahead of them.
13-Michigan State Spartans: Sparty is the team I most considered against Gonzaga, but more than double the losses, worse in five of the seven team sheet metrics, and not definitively better in terms of win quality were all reasons I couldn't push them higher. I'm comfortable with them as a 4-seed.
14-Vanderbilt Commodores: They've got a great win profile and metrics comparable to Michigan State. The biggest difference is that while Vandy has a better overall win collection, they don't have any single result that can match Michigan State's win over Illinois. When it's this close, those are the fine lines that separate teams.
15-Virginia Cavaliers: What really jumps out is Virginia's 4-0 record against Quadrant 1A opponents. While their metrics are all right on the edge of the 4/5 lines, they've got enough at the top to justify inclusion tomorrow.
16-Texas Tech Red Raiders: Honestly, if any 4-seed shows up ahead of Gonzaga, this might be the pick. Due to the guidance given to the media committee yesterday, Texas Tech was dropped down because of J.T. Toppin's season-ending injury. While they have the best collection of top-tier wins (Duke, Arizona, Houston) their metrics even with Toppin were more fitting of a 4-seed than a 3-seed and it's hard to not see them falling off without him. They will likely fall from the 3-seed they could have been, the should still keep their place in the Top-16 until we're actually able to see how they do without Toppin. Their next two are home games against Kansas State and Cincinnati so they should get a chance to acclimate to their new lineups before traveling to Ames.
17-Alabama Crimson Tide: If Alabama is in the Top-16, the resume metrics and elite schedule will be the reasons. However they lack the massive quality wins of a Texas Tech and the overall profile of a Michigan State or Vanderbilt. If they are included, I think it might be Virginia that's left out. Another factor that won't be mentioned but might factor in is Charles Bediako. Alabama added three wins over tourney teams with him in the lineup and now that he's been ruled ineligible, the Selection Committee may quietly knock them down a couple spots because of it.
18-Tennessee Volunteers: The predictive average indicates Top-16 and the Volunteers have a win over Houston that's aging very well, but there just isn't enough depth at the top of the resume to match the teams ahead of them.
19-Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas is the team where everything is close but not quite good enough. They don't have a single metric in the top-16. Their six Quadrant 1 wins are good, but they lack the truly elite wins and overall Quadrant 1+2 win volume of teams ahead of them.
Here's the full seed list and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 11
Big 10: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
