Butler Preview, 2024-25

Butler Bulldogs

December 18th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / January 28th, 2025 at Hinkle Fieldhouse

Head Coach: Thad Matta (471-187 overall, 56-41 at Butler)

Three-Year NET Average: 105.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 100.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 76

Pierre Brooks' 14 points led Butler in their upset win over Marquette
Photo by Patrick McDermott | Getty Sports

State of the Program

2024 was a significant improvement for Thad Matta and Butler. After some writers picked them to finish last in the league, they instead improved their kenpom ranking by 58 spots over the previous year and flirted with the bubble into February. Their improvement included wins over tournament teams Boise State, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Marquette. The offseason was a mixed bag as they saw starting guards Posh Alexander and DJ Davis both leave via transfer while starting big Jalen Thomas graduated. They brought in Kolby King from Tulane and Jamie Kaiser from Maryland to bolster the back court while Patrick McCaffrey from Iowa gives them some front court depth. Butler also managed to get Jahmyl Telfort back from the NBA Draft pool while Finley Bizjack entered the transfer portal but elected to return, setting the Bulldogs up for the Trilly Donovan adage "sometimes the best get is the one that's already on your roster." There are certainly reasons for optimism as Thad Matta enters year three.

Rotation

Kolby King is back in the Big East; he started his career at St. John's before a year at Tulane. He will likely start for Matta, though it's unclear if he'll be on or off the ball. He is a savvy player who knows how to get to his spots and is highly efficient from beyond the arc (36.6%) and at the rim (67.0%). One concern is that King was much worse against Tier A&B competition according to kenpom (80.6 ORtg) so he needs to prove he doesn't just feast on garbage opponents. Finley Bizjack was extremely erratic last year. In 26 games of 10+ minutes, he had 7 games of 138+ ORtg, 15 games of 87 or worse, and just 4 in between those poles. He is the other contender to start at the point. Pierre Brooks was Butler's leading scorer, finding the consistency that eluded him for two years at Michigan State. Brooks was excellent from beyond the arc and an integral part of the offense as Butler was 12.2 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor. Jahmyl Telfort posted a career best offensive rating after transferring in from Northeastern, but did so in an unspectacular way. He's a poor shooter at the rim (53.3%) and beyond the arc (30.8%) but rarely turned it over and rarely makes mistakes. He plays a bit of an old man game, not really standing out, but always being fairly solid. Andre Screen was excellent in limited minutes, likely only playing as little as he did because Jalen Thomas was the team's most efficient player and the two never played together (not a single possession). He's a high efficiency rebounder that lives around the rim. Depth should be another strength for this team, as Moore and Kaiser both have high-major rotation experience, McCaffrey is a veteran of numerous NCAA teams, and Kapke is another rebounding space-eater with the added benefit of being able to stretch the floor.

Style of Play

Offensively, Matta largely flipped the script last year. His team played more up-tempo, excelling at getting to the rim or kicking out off a drive. When they managed to complete those plays, they did well, but settled far too often for mid-range shots. That should be mitigated by the departure of Jalen Thomas, who was top-30 in mid-range attempt rate. Beyond the arc, Butler is great at creating catch-and-shoot situations. They rarely (2.6 attempts/100 possessions) pull up for jumpers from three, instead using either drive and kick or pick and pop actions. Butler got assists on 91.6% of their three-point attempts. The departure of Alexander and Davis, Butler's top two turnover creators, could lead to a slower offense, but expect them still to run heavy on driving actions that are more likely to finish at the rim or result in open threes. Matta likes to run multiple shooters around a big and this roster fits that well, and don't be surprised to see some five-out from this Butler offense if they swing McCaffrey or Kapke to the middle.

On the defensive end, Matta's teams rarely foul. Both of his Butler teams have been top-10 in defensive free throw rate. The problem with that lack of physicality is they let teams get to the rim too often, ranking 224th in rim attempt rate and 228th in FG% at the rim. When you let teams get to the rim often and convert when they get there, it's no surprise their defense ranked 9th in the Big East, ahead of only Georgetown and DePaul. His best defenses have been man-to-man, ball-pressure defenses that are aggressive without fouling. The problem is even with Alexander and Davis, Butler ranked #250 in defensive turnover rate. It seems unlikely their replacements will perform better in that regard. That leaves the question of what Butler's defensive identity will be. They want to pressure the ball but don't have the quick hands to do that. They don't have the lateral quickness to keep teams away from the rim and don't have the shot-blockers to serve as enforcers when drivers get through. It's possible that Matta simply doesn't have the level of talent he needs to execute the defense he wants to run.

2024-25 Outlook 

Davis and Thomas are big losses, but it's entirely possible the departure of Posh Alexander is addition by subtraction. He's not a great offensive player and on defense his desire to pursue steals comes at the expense of holding defensive position. There's no true point guard on the roster, but King, Bizjack, and Telfort are all capable of creating for others and Brooks is a legitimate all-Big East contender. Their non-con has winnable opportunities (SMU, Northwestern, UNLV/Mississippi St, Wisconsin) with only one game that can be chalked up as a loss today (at Houston). This won't be a great offensive or defensive team, but they have experience both on and off the court. Matta seems to have this team pointed in the right direction and while they won't likely compete for a Big East title, they could be scrappy enough to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.

One Man's Opinion

I picked Butler last a year ago and won't be making that mistake again. I'm putting them at #6 in the Big East. This is a team with bubble potential and I think it's more likely than not they realize that. It will come down primarily to Matta, but he had last year's team in the mix for a bid into mid-February before their late collapse. Posh Alexander's departure is addition by subtraction. Losing DJ Davis' offense and floor-spacing hurts, but I think Matta can get King, Kaiser, and McCaffrey to offset that loss. This won't be an exciting team, and they'll probably win some games ugly, but Thad is building them back to respectability.

Providence Preview, 2024-25

Providence Friars

December 31st, 2024 at Amica Mutual Pavilion / February 25th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Kim English (55-43 overall, 21-14 at Providence)

Three-Year NET Average: 46.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 43.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 60

Bryce Hopkins' health is a key question as Providence looks to get back to the Tournament
 Photo by Steve Senne | AP Photo

State of the Program

Kim English took over a Providence program with as many NCAA appearances (7) in the prior decade than they had in the thirty-five years before that. Ed Cooley left not only big shoes to fill, but two likely NBA players in Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins and a trio of promising young players in Jayden Pierre, Corey Floyd, and Garwey Dual. Providence was 11-2 (2-0) when Bryce Hopkins suffered a season-ending injury. The Friars lost their next four games and saw their season on the decline. Carter performed enough superheroics to lead Providence to a 10-10 Big East record and the brink of the NCAA Tournament, but they ultimately missed out and Carter headed to the NBA Draft Lottery. Dual also left, while George Mason transfers Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines exhausted their eligibility. English hit the portal hard, bringing in a quartet of players expected to contribute (Wesley Cardet, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Christ Essandoko, and Bensley Joseph) and a top-50 big man who will likely earn immediate minutes. Fans are optimistic, but English is going on three years without an NCAA appearance (two at GMU) and he needs to figure that out if he's going to live up to Ed Cooley's legacy on the court.

Rotation

Jayden Pierre started 31 games for the Friars and was hot and cold. He needs to find consistency for this team to reach their ceiling, especially without a lottery pick in Carter alongside him. Wesley Cardet is one of the more interesting transfers in the country. The optimistic case is that he's a high-usage, productive scorer that can create his own shot and provide for others. The pessimistic case is he's a mediocre efficiency player that racked up big counting numbers because his uncle was the coach at Chicago State. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but he has had productive games against quality competition, including 19 points at K-State, 30 points/9 rebounds in an upset win over Northwestern, and 18 points/4 assists at Fiserv against Marquette two years ago. Jabri Abdur-Rahim was a starter at Georgia who did well as a role player that didn't make mistakes. Friar fans will hope Bryce Hopkins will be the star of this team. He was the odds-on favorite for Big East Player of the Year in 2023 before a late slump coupled with Tyler Kolek brilliance edged him out of the award, which was followed by a season ending injury last year. Hopkins is a productive scorer and rebounder, but it was his defense early in the season that stood out. When he was injured, Providence had the #4 defense in the country according to T-Rank through January 2; from that point on their defense ranked #36. He's a strong, physical wing with an NBA frame and the ability to score at all three levels when healthy. Christ Essandoko is a player who will divide opinions. The Friar faithful are convinced he will be an instant impact big man, but while his counting stats are impressive considering the minutes, team efficiency at St. Joe's plummeted on both ends of the floor when he a was in the game.

 

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The Providence bench has depth, but similarly a lot of questions. Bensley Joseph was a starter at Miami last year, but they took a huge back as he stepped up from a sixth man role. Corey Floyd earned significant minutes last year, but he was a bad offensive player and below average defender (though health concerns may have contributed). Justyn Fernandez is an athletic wing, but sat out last season with a knee injury and his efficiency was already poor at GMU in the A-10. Rich Barron was a lights out shooter (42.9% from three) but his already limited role may be diminished this year. Oswin Erhunwunse looks like a potential star as a blossoming shot blocker, but he's also reclassified from 2025 and reclassed freshmen often take longer to acclimate. 7'2" JUCO transfer Anton Bonke could provide additional bench depth but it will be a big step up as he played his first organized basketball game at Eastern Arizona a year ago after coming to the United States from the island nation of Vanuatu.

Style of Play

 

It's hard to separate how much of last year's offense was Kim English's style and how much was Devin Carter's ability. Providence used screens to create rim opportunities for Carter and their bigs. The downside is that their best rim finishers left and the returning and new players who will take those shots are pretty terrible at the rim (see chart below). Providence ranked #71 in percent of points from three and that is one area they should improve. While Carter was their most efficient shooter from deep at 37.7%, as a team they shot just 32.5%. Cardet (34.4%), Abdur-Rahim (35.6%), Joseph (36.4%), and Essandoko (36.8%) give them more reliable long-range options. They generate most of their threes off drive and kick actions. Carter had the tendency to pull up from very long range, but that will likely be lessened with his departure. Ultimately, the hope will be to take and make a lot of threes while using cuts and screens to open up opportunities at the rim, and with Hopkins and Essandoko expect PC to attack the offensive glass for second chance points.

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The defensive end is where Providence excelled last year. They play tenaciously, chasing teams off the line, getting into passing lanes, and altering everything at the rim. Much of that was Carter, though. He led the team in steal rate, was second in block rate to Oduro, and did it without fouling (2.2 fouls/40 minutes). Expect a similar game plan even without the head of their snake. English's teams play hard and will challenge everything at the arc, while funneling drivers inside. Essandoko and Erhunwumse are both promising rim protectors and will look to continue PC's top-20 at the rim defense (52.6%), with the caveat that St. Joseph's was worse in ATR defense with Essandoko on the floor. The reason for this may be that over-aggressive shot blockers can be exploited in cut and pick and roll plays, so they will still be able to produce high percentage block numbers but when they don't get their hands on the ball they are more likely to give up a basket than someone who simply plays sound positional defense.

2024-25 Outlook

 

If you take a cursory glance at the Providence roster, there's a lot to like. Hopkins has shown the ability to be a star in the past. Pierre and Essandoko are promising young players. Abdur-Rahim, Cardet, and Joseph bring experience and production. Fernandez and Bonke are high-upside projects that could come into form. But digging under the hood, there's also a lot to be worried about. Hopkins and Fernandez are coming off major injuries. The bulk of the team is mediocre to downright awful when it comes to offensive efficiency. And for a team that wants to get to the cup, the players they have are really, really bad historically at finishing when they get close. Each of the past two years, English has underperformed his preseason kenpom projections, and while Providence fans are optimistic about the energy and moxy English displays, it's interesting to note his early attachment to the "Cooley Zone." The 3 Man Weave podcast referred to Providence as such because Ed Cooley's teams always seemed to finish between 40-80 in kenpom, which is typically on the NCAA bubble but not convincingly in or out. In nine of Cooley's twelve seasons they finished in that range, with an average finish of exactly 59. In English's first season, he finished at exactly 59, and both T-Rank and kenpom have Providence at 60 going into this year. As much as things have changed in Providence, the outcome feels like it's remaining the same.

One Man's Opinion

 

I have Providence at #7 in the Big East. On paper, I see the argument of a healthy Hopkins, a pair of high major transfers in Joseph and Abdur-Rahim, and upside plays like Cardet and Essandoko. But I can't get that second chart out of my head when I think of this team. Individually, English brought in a number of useful pieces, but I question the fit of them playing together. This team needs to be able to finish at the rim to open up looks at the arc. All they did was watch their best rim finishers leave and replace those shots with players who struggle to convert the looks they need for their offense to work. I have also talked to St. Joe's fans excited about the departure of Christ Essandoko and the opening it gives to Rasheer Fleming. Aside from his first year at George Mason being an improvement on Dave Paulsen, every season of English's young career has been worse for the program he was at than the season that preceded it. If it all goes right, this could be a bubble team that lands on the right side, but they don't look like a team that can challenge the top tier of the Big East.

Villanova Preview, 2024-25

Villanova Wildcats

January 24th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 21st, 2025 at Wells Fargo Center

Head Coach: Kyle Neptune (51-49 overall, 35-33 at Villanova)

Three-Year NET Average: 40.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 32.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 43

Eric Dixon is the only returning starter from last year's NIT team

 Photo by Charles Fox | Philadelphia Inquirer

State of the Program

When Jay Wright left, Villanova had completed a decade with two National Championships, an additional Final Four, five Big East Tournament titles, seven Big East regular season titles, and eight top-20 kenpom finishes. They were an elite program operating at the top of the sport. In Kyle Neptune's second season, the Wildcats finished tied for sixth in the Big East (10-10) and missed the NCAA Tournament, all for the second straight year. More worrying might be that gone from that roster are five of the top six rotation players, primarily replaced with mid-major up-transfers. While there are mitigating circumstances we'll get into later, Kyle Neptune has the most pressure of his young career with what looks like his least talented roster on paper at Villanova.

Rotation

Neptune probably didn't expect to be replacing his point guard this soon, but Jhamir Brickus comes across town from La Salle where he was a four-year starter. Brickus will be a change from Mark Armstrong. He's a better ball-handler, creator, and shooter, but isn't the elite pick and roll player nor nearly the defender Armstrong was. Wooga Poplar comes from Miami. Like Brickus, he brings more shooting but has deficiencies on the defensive end. Miami also took a big step back as his role expanded, though that blame doesn't lie solely on him. Jordan Longino will need to take a big step up. One of the last Jay Wright holdovers, he does a little bit of everything but hasn't really excelled at anything. The polar opposite of that is Eric Dixon, who does a lot of everything, and seems to do it all well. According to hoop-explorer, Villanova's adjusted efficiency was 20.5 points/100 possessions better (+17.8 on offense/-2.7 on defense) with Dixon on the floor. Expect the bulk of the offense to run through him, as he is a solid catch-and-shoot option on the perimeter, can put it on the floor and get to the rim, and even create for others. His partner up front will be Enoch Boakye, a monster rebounder and prodigious shot blocker. On offense, Boakye provides a lob threat and does well finishing in pick and roll situations. He's also a dangerous transition weapon as he runs the floor well. If he has issues, they are on the defensive end. His shot blocking and rebounding cover up some deficiencies, but he's a poor man defender and if he isn't getting the block, he probably isn't stopping the shot. The bench is very young, with Tyler Perkins the only player with significant D1 experience. The Penn transfer is joined by a quartet of freshmen with varying expectations. Aleksandar Gavalyugov is considered a high-upside European import, though whether he's instant impact or more of a project (as most European transfers are) remains to be seen. Matthew Hodge and Josiah Moseley are true freshmen wings who will likely need to provide immediate minutes while Alabama transfer Kris Parker redshirted last year but became highly coveted in the portal as he came very close to committing to Florida State and Butler before settling on 'Nova.

Style of Play

Kyle Neptune is trying to continue what Villanova did under Jay Wright. Instead of a deep playbook, they teach concepts, getting players to move constantly off the ball to create open looks. Everyone develops multi-dimensional skills, so the bigs can not only step out and hit a three, but put it on the floor or deliver a precision pass to create an open three for a teammate. The guards can drive and run the offense, but are equally comfortable turning their back and posting up in the paint, and have the strength to finish down there. This also requires teaching patience and waiting to attack until you find the right shot, which led to one of the more aesthetically appealing slow-paced offenses. Wright succeeded in part because he had years to develop players, teaching and reteaching the same lessons year over year. Under Neptune, the concepts are the same. Lots of attacking the interior in order to finish at the rim, kick out for a three, or find a perimeter cutter. However, a mix of injuries to top players, rotations heavily based on freshmen, and an increased reliance on the transfer portal has led to diminished returns. After nine straight years in the top-21 of kenpom's offensive efficiency, they finished #39 and #87 the past two years.

Do you see all that blue? Jay Wright would NEVER!
 Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defense was where Neptune's team excelled. Their #13 kenpom finish was the best since their 2018 National Championship team. They like defenders that can switch and rebound. Villanova is focused on keeping teams out of the paint. Their bigs will play drop coverage to make sure rim attempts are limited and everyone is focused on blitzing ball screens to further hamper pick and roll. They rely on quick defenders who can get to the spot before the offensive player, which minimizes good looks inside. Villanova is great at gang rebounding as everyone will come to the glass which limits second shot opportunities. As might be expected, this interior focus leaves the perimeter open, which is why Neptune's teams have been sub-300 in defensive three-point attempt rate each of the past two years. This feels like a holdover from Jay Wright, and is a scheme that can work if you have better shooters and create better looks than your opponents. That really hasn't been the case the past two years.

2024-25 Outlook

Let me start by saying I think Kyle Neptune is a bit underrated as a coach. He's clearly no Jay Wright, but his first 'Nova team was killed by the Whitmore and Moore injuries. They're likely a tourney team if those two are healthy all year. Last year it was poor luck in close games, as they went 4-9 in games decided by two possessions or in overtime. In terms of bad bounces, they ranked #330 and #351 in kenpom's Luck stat those two years. Neptune has had some really bad fortune, but some of those close games may come down to him not having the experience to make the right coaching move at the critical moment. Putting together consecutive 10-10 Big East records and top-60 kenpom finishes indicate to me he's not as bad as people make out.

That said, I hesitate to see this team's road to success. Dixon is fantastic, but at his best he was the fifth option on a Final Four team. In the years he's been expected to carry the load, Villanova has been absent from the NCAA Tournament. Brickus, Boakye, and Perkins are fine mid-major players, but it's hard to imagine them having a more positive impact than Tyler Burton, Hakim Hart, and Lance Ware did a year ago. Wooga Poplar is probably the highlight addition, and is he really going to be better than T.J. Bamba was? This team has lost the continuity they thrived on and while this may not be the least talented team in the league, it certainly doesn't look like a tourney team. The man that needs to be the difference maker is Neptune, and while he might be a perfectly fine coach, in a league with Dan Hurley, Shaka Smart, Rick Pitino, Sean Miller, Thad Matta, and Greg McDermott, you either need an elite roster or elite coach to compete at the top of the league. I don't see either of those things on the Main Line anymore. Neptune was well suited to learn the craft at a program like Fordham, where he was probably a middle-tier A-10 coach, but in the Big East he's near the bottom simply because the coaching talent is so high.

One Man's Opinion

I'm picking Villanova #8 in the Big East. I could see a world where the transfers pan out and the Dixon/Poplar combination is enough to lift them to the right side of the bubble, but this roster just looks too unproven for a coach with Neptune's limitations. And while there's bubble upside, if things go wrong, this team could fall all the way to the cellar of the Big East. I strongly suspect this will be Neptune's last year heading the Wildcats.

Seton Hall Preview, 2024-25

Seton Hall Pirates

January 21st, 2025 at Prudential Center / February 18th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Shaheen Holloway (106-8 overall, 42-28 at Seton Hall)

Three-Year NET Average: 64.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 53.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 92

 

Dylan Addae-Wusu battles Tyler Kolek for the ball

Photo by Rich Schultz | Getty Images

State of the Program

Shaheen Holloway's second campaign in Newark was a roller coaster ride. The Pirates started 4-0, then dropped four of five, losing to every top-100 non-conference opponent they faced. They managed to beat Missouri in Kansas City before really announcing their presence nationally. SHU knocked off undefeated UConn in their Big East opener and followed that up with wins at Providence and over Marquette and St. John's as part of their 6-1 league start. A three-game losing skid brought them back to reality a bit, but they finished strong, winning seven of their last ten (the losses were at Villanova, Creighton, and UConn) and entered Championship Week with a real shot at an NCAA bid. The week went as bad for the Pirates as it could have gone. They lost to St. John's in the Big East Tournament, then watched New Mexico, Duquesne, UAB, Oregon, and NC State win conference tournaments to take the Pirates (second team out) out of the field. But instead of bemoaning their predicament (okay, there was some of that too, and blaming of Val Ackerman for not...umm...taking to Twitter to defend them) they went out and won five straight to capture the NIT title. Summer was not so kind as four starters departed, including Kadary Richmond who went across the river to join St. John's. They did bring in 7 transfers, but all were either high-major role-players or low-major up-transfers.

Rotation

It sounds like Providence transfer Garwey Dual will get the first crack at replacing Richmond. He used his defensive length well and was both a threat to create turnovers and block shots from the help side, but he was just as likely to turn it over on the offensive end and his 38.8 eFG% left a lot to be desired. Dylan Addae-Wusu and Isaiah Coleman will provide his back court support. Addae-Wusu has been a quiet but capable Big East contributor for four years (three at St. John's) while Coleman elevated his game during Big East play, but seemed to hit a freshman wall in mid-February. There's competition in the front court. We expect Scotty Middleton to find his way into the starting lineup because his shooting and defensive length looks essential to what Holloway wants to do. Without Richmond and Jaden Bediako, rebounding could take a hit, which is where Yacine Toumi comes in. The grad transfer from Evansville has been a monster on the defensive glass the past two years, but will likely need to add bulk if he's going to keep that production up in the Big East. The Pirate bench is a mix of low-major experience and high-major fliers. Zion Harmon (Bethune-Cookman) and Chaunce Jenkins (Old Dominion) were productive at lower levels, but are high-usage, low efficiency players that performed worse against higher level competition. Prince Aligbe (Boston College), Gus Yalden (Wisconsin), and Emmanuel Okorafor (Louisville) all came from high-majors but played limited minutes (or none at all in Yalden's case).

Style of Play

When possible, Seton Hall's offense will start on the defensive end, getting out in transition off steals and rebounds. Once they settle into the halfcourt, expect a lot of off-ball movement. They use the drive to initiate and want to get to the rim, ranking 28th nationally in the rate of shots at the rim. When that isn't open, the off-ball movement is designed to feed cutters also attacking the rim or dishing out for open threes. The problem last year was that the Pirates were not a good shooting team, but they tried to make up for that with rebounding, ranking in the 97th percentile in shots taken directly from an offensive rebound.

Seton Hall gets inside a lot, but often needs second chances to score

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Holloway built his reputation on defense. His St. Peter's teams led the MAAC in defense for three years before he came to Seton Hall. He runs deep, 8-9 man rotations. His teams apply ball pressure throughout the possession. Their strength is inside the arc, where he always has a high-level shot blocker in the middle with numerous help side defenders equally willing to challenge shots. Where they can be exploited is on the perimeter. Teams took 42.4% of their shots outside the arc against Seton Hall. To beat the Pirate defense it helps a lot to make your shots from three.

2024-25 Outlook

While the NIT title was likely fun for Pirate fans, this offseason has left them with a lot of questions. Kadary Richmond was a matchup nightmare, Al-Amir Dawes was by far their most reliable shooter, and Jaden Bediako was a monster on the offensive glass. Not only are the replacements generally inefficient, but by and large they were inefficient at a lower level. The players that are most proven are not high major players, and the players that have been at the high major level are not proven.

All that said, last year's Seton Hall roster had no business finishing 4th in the Big East, and if not for an unprecedented number of bid thieves they would've been in the NCAA Tournament. Holloway's teams always play hard and are never intimidated by competition, but it's hard to see where the offense comes from. Expect them to try to turn games into rock fights. The Hall was 8-2 in games decided by 6 points or fewer last year and will need similar fortune this year if they have any hopes of playing in the postseason. I'm just not sure that's in the cards for this roster.

One Man's Opinion

What Holloway did last year was incredible. Leading that roster to that finish was an incredible coaching achievement. But based on this roster, I have the Pirates #9 in the Big East. There isn't a rotation player that reached 105.0 offensive efficiency last year. And it's not like these guys were role-players for contenders, they were either bit players for non-tourney high-majors or low efficiency, high usage guys for low majors. On paper, this is the worst roster in the Big East. That said, Holloway is a consistent defensive coach who will have his team competing and last year wasn't the first time he worked magic (remember St. Peter's, anyone?). If anyone can turn this ragtag group into a respectable outfit, it's him, but it will require a lot of overachieving from players whose careers haven't been defined by their overachievement.

DePaul Preview, 2024-25

DePaul Blue Demons

January 14th, 2025 at Wintrust Arena / February 11th, 2025

Head Coach: Chris Holtmann (251-171 overall, 0-0 at DePaul)

Three-Year NET Average: 195.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 180.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 128

Chris Holtmann is back in the Big East with the Blue Demons

Photo by Jeff Hanisch | USA Today Sports

State of the Program

The kenpom database goes back to 1997. In that time, less than 2% of Big East teams finished ranked 200 or worse, bottoming out at #234 Virginia Tech all the way back in 2001. Hopefully that illustrates just how bad DePaul finishing #304, by far the worst rank in league history, was in 2024. That 3-29 (0-20) season got Tony Stubblefield fired. DePaul turned to former Ohio State and Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who cleaned house, bringing back zero minutes from last year's roster. He added 10 transfers and three freshmen. The good news for DePaul is when you were the worst team in Big East history, there's nowhere to go but up.

Rotation

Holtmann landed a solid point guard in Conor Enright, who started 32 games for a Drake team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year. He's a knockdown shooter from deep, can find the open man, and was well schooled in a winning system. He's joined in the back court by Layden Blocker, a high-upside transfer from Arkansas who was ranked in the top-100 coming out of high school. Blocker struggled to break through with the Razorbacks but is lightning quick, excels at driving to the rim, and is a better playmaker than his freshman year stats indicate. Isaiah Rivera comes to DePaul from across town at UIC, where he was an excellent shooter and high-volume scorer, but he started his career at Colorado State so he should be better acclimated to compete at this level. J.J. Traynor joins from a Louisville program that was a disaster, but as a player there's a lot to like. He is a dominant rim finisher, making 76.7% of his shots this past year (top-10 nationally) after converting on 76.3% the year before. He also added a three-point shot, connecting on 36.8% from deep. Louisville was better on both ends with Traynor in the game and he is one of the gems of Holtmann's massive transfer class, though he did only play 8 games last year. David Skogman comes from Davidson and is the epitome of a stretch 5. He took 94.6% of his shots from three or at the rim (evenly split at 47.3% each) and was great in both regards, making 46.8% from deep and 62.9% ATR. He's a much better offensive than defensive player, so don't be surprised to see him platoon with Missouri State transfer N.J. Benson. Jacob Meyer (Coastal Carolina), Troy D'Amico (Southern Illinois), C.J. Gunn (Indiana), and David Thomas (Mercer) provide depth and experience off the bench while all four are capable long-range shooters. Don't expect freshmen Chris Riddle or Sekou Konneh to contribute much yet.

Style of Play

Historically, Holtmann loves a balanced attack that excels in the spots other teams leave open, such as mid-range. In the past, he has run a slow-tempo offense that often uses the big as a hub for inside out or post-up actions. While there will likely be some elements of that, I don't think that's what Holtmann is planning for this DePaul team. DePaul's ten transfers combined to make 286/728 three point shots last season. If you compared that 39.3% clip to the rest of the country, Holtmann's roster would've ranked 6th nationally in three-point percentage last year. I expect the pace will stay slow, but Holtmann will use his team's three point lethality to keep them close and try to pull upsets. They have the ability to routinely put four and sometimes five long-range specialists on the floor at the same time. Holtmann likes to use motion offense so expect a lot of movement designed to open up the arc.

The biggest question will be on the defensive end. Holtmann has done great when he inherited defensive players, but his high-major stops seem to decline as he gets his own players in place. He had the 8th ranked defense his first year at Butler, followed by #97 and #49. At Ohio State, his first three years were 15/25/19, then the Wesson brothers (recruited by Thad Matta) left and he followed that with 82/111/106. Further, when he was fired at Ohio State on February 14th, their defense according to kenpom was ranked #124 but it finished at #63, a massive improvement. According to T-Rank, Ohio State's defense ranked #24 from the time Jon Diebler took over through the end of the season.

Holtmann's defense starts on the offensive end. They typically send three offensive rebounders to follow the shot while two players drop back to cut off transition opportunities. One player, the fullback, goes into the back court to take away easy dunks or layups while also calling out defensive sets. The halfback is there to slow runners and buy time for the rest of the defense to get back. Once everyone is back, the first big goes retreats to the post, pushing the fullback to the wing and they set up in man-to-man.

2024-25 Outlook

When you clear out the worst roster in league history, it's safe to say DePaul will be improved. Holtmann added experience with Rivera and Skogman, upside with Blocker and Meyer, and tournament pedigree with Enright. There are more offensive weapons than DePaul had in the past, a clear offensive vision built around shooting, and even with defensive questions Holtmann's worst defensive rank in 10 years as a high-major coach was better than Tony Stubblefield's best. The Blue Demons might still be the worst team in the league, but thanks to the roster overhaul and having a competent coach at the helm, there's actually a debate as to whether that will be the case. Their roster may be better than Georgetown or Seton Hall and while they'll still be around the bottom of the league, there's reason to believe they could fight their way out of the cellar. 

One Man's Opinion

It's entirely possible this whole thing collapses, it is DePaul after all, but I'm picking the Blue Demons #10 in the Big East. It's not the best roster, but there's a clear vision and plan, which I can't say for everyone on this end of the standings. This team is going to get into some shootouts and just might have the firepower to win some of them. More often than not, the defense will give up too much to keep up, but they have a competent, Big East level coach and a roster designed to mop up their soft non-con before pulling a few shocking upsets in league play. There's more work to be done, but Holtmann at least laid a foundation.

Quiet Summer Means October Preseason Check In

Hello #mubb fans and welcome to the cusp of a new basketball season! It has been a real quiet off season as is typical for a Shaka Smart program it seems, so we're out of practice. We get together to talk preseason scrimmage content, season expectations, and schedule impressions. We've got less than a month until the ball is tossed on the first game of the season so let's start getting into game condition. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/7bh4h7szmzbictzw/October_Checkin74gbo.mp3

Georgetown Preview, 2024-25

Georgetown Hoyas

January 7th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / March 1st, 2025 at Capital One Arena

Head Coach: Ed Cooley (343-245 overall, 9-23 at Georgetown)

Three-Year NET Average: 214.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 195.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 106

Jayden Epps is Georgetown's only returning starter

Photo by Daniel Rankin | Georgetown Voice

State of the Program

Georgetown hit rock bottom in 2023, as Patrick Ewing led them to their worst kenpom finish (#219) in program history just a year after going winless in league play (0-19). Enter Ed Cooley from Providence, who brought in a history of program building and NCAA acumen. Cooley did improve things, but only marginally. The Hoyas went 2-18 in league play for the second consecutive year and while they got back into the top-200 at kenpom, it was only up to #192, which was the second worst mark in program history. Now's the time for Cooley to prove that program building bit. He added three promising sophomore transfers and the 12th ranked recruiting class in the country according to 247 Sports. There's reason for optimism, but realization of that optimism may still be a year or two away.

Rotation

Malik Mack is the first of the heralded sophomores. He led Harvard in scoring and assists, though much of that is a product of his team leading usage rate (29.4% was 6th nationally among freshmen). His new running mate, Jayden Epps, had an even higher usage rate for Georgetown, though on mediocre efficiency. Micah Peavy comes in from an NCAA team at TCU where he was a role-player on offense but a standout defender. Kentucky transfer Jordan Burks struggled to crack Cal's rotation and will be looking for a bigger role. In a limited sample, Kentucky was 20.6 points/100 possessions better with Burks on the floor. Thomas Sorber is the jewel of Cooley's recruiting class. He's expected to start and has a Big East-ready body to go along with solid post moves and rim protection on defense. The bench is young. Kayvaun Mulready and Julius Halaifonua are projects that will likely get to prove their mettle early while Drew Fielder showed flashes last year and will provide coverage in the front court.

Style of Play

Cooley's best teams have had hyper-productive point guards like Vincent Council, Kris Dunn, and Bryce Cotton running the show. However while gaudy assist numbers at the point are a Cooley staple, his teams in recent years have run a ton through his big men. He runs a ton of post-up action or uses the drive to create roll opportunities for his big men. Cooley hasn't had great shooting teams (his best ever eFG% rank was #126) but they crash the glass hard and are excellent at finishing on second chance opportunities. This team has two productive ball-handlers that can both create and score, and don't be surprised if Sorber is a dark horse Freshman of the Year candidate because he should get plenty of scoring chances at the rim. When the toss-ahead isn't open, Cooley likes his teams to play in the half court and is comfortable with them milking the clock for the best shot opportunity.

Defensively, his teams are aggressive challenging shooters at the arc to either chase them off the line or contest the shot. Cooley's teams do this by getting as close as they can to the perimeter players to prevent them from being able to dribble. By closing that space, they aim to deflect passes and take away easy looks from three. If attackers get past the perimeter line of defense, Georgetown funnels attackers to the bigs, counting on their shot blockers to protect the rim rather than trying to keep teams out of the paint altogether.

2024-25 Outlook

The first question with this roster is how do Malik Mack and Jayden Epps coexist when there's only one ball? The second question is why did Micah Peavy, who started every game for a tournament team, transfer to a Georgetown team that will likely be bad? If the answer is that he was hoping for more prominent role, something Jordan Burks likely also wants, and Drew Fielder likely expects after a highly efficient freshman year, this team could have problems. It looks like Georgetown has too many players who want to be the star and not enough players who are there because they will accept a role. Combine that with the reality that Peavy and Epps are the only two players on the roster that are not freshmen or sophomores and the Hoyas could have a real experience issue as well. Cooley is great at grinding out results when he has lunch pail players whose hearts are bigger than their efficiency numbers. His best teams thrive because they have unselfish players, but this team looks like the antithesis of that. They are young and the possibility to mold this group into a team in the coming years exists, but I worry that this team might worry more about which player led the team in scoring than if the team's combined score was enough to win the game.

One Man's Opinion

Like Providence, I just don't see this roster fitting together very well. Unlike Providence, there's no Bryce Hopkins anymore to save Cooley's bacon, which is why I have the Hoyas picked #11 in the Big East. They have an undersized back court that will struggle on defense and constantly be in a "my turn, your turn" fight over the ball. Up front, they are very young and simply don't have players who have the experience to compete on day one in the Big East, and the bench is just as young. The one thing I will give to Cooley over some of his peers is I can see the vision. In two years, this team could still be together, but if they are it will be laden with juniors and seniors that have been through the wars. Cooley will likely have a star or two by that time (Sorber, Mulready, or Mack?) and you can see the vision of a NCAA Team again. But that time isn't now.

Dayton Preview, 2024-25

Dayton Flyers

December 14th, 2024 at UD Arena

Head Coach: Anthony Grant (342-182 overall, 149-72 at Dayton)

Three-Year NET Average: 51.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 52.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 70

Dayton's Enoch Cheeks scrambles for a loose ball
 Photo from daytonflyers.com

State of the Program

You've probably heard it before, but COVID shutting down the 2020 NCAA Tournament had a negative impact on Dayton more than anyone else. They were 29-2 with both losses in overtime to projected single-digit seeds, were a lock for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and one of the favorites to cut nets behind National Player of the Year Obi Toppin. Sure, teams like Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor also lost opportunities that year, but those programs are all perennial Final Four contenders who have been there in the years since. That's not the case for Dayton, who last went to the Final Four in 1967 and only has one second weekend trip in the last 40 years.

While Anthony Grant hasn't brought them back to that level of success, the Flyers have won 20+ games in five of the last six seasons, with the only exception being COVID-shortened 2021. They also finished in the top-3 of the Atlantic 10 in each of those five seasons. Grant has built a program that is perennially at the top of their league and competing for an NCAA bid, even if they've landed in the NIT more often than not. Last year was their best since 2020, led by DaRon Holmes, who was a second team All-American, earning both the A-10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. In addition to Holmes as a dominant two-way force, Dayton had a plethora of shooters that ranked #3 in the nation from beyond the arc. The Flyers notched high-major wins over LSU, St. John's, and Cincinnati, building an at-large resume in the process. They also earned their first NCAA win since 2015 in shocking style, rallying from a 17-point deficit with 7:14 to play to steal a 63-60 result from Nevada. The downside to that success was the departure of Holmes to the NBA while sharpshooters Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea transferred to high-major programs in the offseason.

Rotation

The strength of the Flyers starts in the backcourt. Malachi Smith was injured in the season-opener but they're hoping he's finally healthy. He's a capable scorer but is better as a distributor. Smith is joined by Posh Alexander, who comes over from Butler. Alexander is inconsistent offensively, but is one of the premier ballhawks in the nation. He applies tremendous on-ball defensive pressure and is routinely elite at forcing turnovers. Enoch Cheeks rounds out Dayton's three-man backcourt. He started all 33 games for Dayton last year and does a little bit of everything, but isn't really elite at anything. Nate Santos is the leading returning scorer and also started every game last year. His contributions were a bit of a surprise as he wasn't a leading figure or elite shooter at Pitt, but elevated his game in every way at Dayton. Zed Key will be charged with replacing Holmes. He was a four-year rotation player at Ohio State where he was an effective rebounder and rim protector. They'll need him to move up his contributions to featured player if he's going to adequately replace Holmes. The bench looks solid, starting with Javon Bennett. He started 28 games last year as he shared point guard duties with Kobe Elvis, but it's hard to envision him holding on to a starting spot with Smith back and Alexander joining the fold. Having three players 6-feet and shorter would be a nightmare defensively, even in the A-10. I still expect him to get heavy minutes as they likely cycle through their three point guards. Marvel Allen is a talented redshirt freshman who rescinded his commitment to Georgetown and Patrick Ewing before joining Dayton. Jacob Conner is the most likely big off the bench, but Dayton also boasts Hamid Mousa and Amael L'Etang, a pair of big bodies from overseas with little experience but lots of upside.

Style of Play 

Grant likes to run a continuity ball screen offense. They play deep into the shot clock, with the players and ball constantly moving. They ran heavy drive and kick actions last year and were in the 100th percentile in efficiency on those plays, but losing three of their top four shooters from deep may change the style a bit. What this team has in spades is high-quality passers. Expect a patient offense with lots of movement off the ball to create open looks and defensive confusion. Zed Key and Nate Santos are both excellent finishers at the rim, so when they aren't looking for open threes expect both of them to be fighting to either screen and roll or cut backdoor to get easy opportunities inside. How well they shoot will likely determine how good their offense is. Grant has three top-30 offenses in his coaching career, and all of those were accompanied by top-30 three-point shooting teams.

The Flyer defense excelled at forcing teams into midrange looks

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defensively, Dayton will make you work for every look. They run a man defense that excels at taking away attempts at the rim and forcing teams into midrange and three-point jumpers (see chart above). Dayton is one of the best at defending without fouling, but still attacks closeouts aggressively. While it's true that teams are more efficient in the midrange against Dayton, that's relative to the rest of the country. Dayton forces you to midrange where they allow teams to convert on 38.6% of their shots, which is poor nationally (#257) but far better than allowing attempts inside where teams hit 58.4% against them. The Flyers know which looks are low percentage and let teams take those looks early and often. If they get into foul trouble, which is rare, Grant will break out a zone, but it's a break glass in case of emergency situation.

2024-25 Outlook

Dayton fans have to be salivating at their non-conference schedule opportunities. They open the Maui Invitational, where they were runners-up in 2019, with North Carolina, and follow that with a likely top-10 matchup against Auburn or Iowa State. They have Cincinnati on a neutral court as well. At home, they host Northwestern, UNLV, and their on-paper biggest home non-con game since 2007 (Pittsburgh) in Marquette. Dayton fans have long desired a Big East invitation (except for this guy) and will view a home-and-home opportunity as their chance to audition for that ticket. A packed UD Arena will be one of the most hostile venues Marquette travels to this year, and with Hilton Coliseum and the AMP on the schedule, that's saying something. If Dayton can manage to get 3-4 wins from Maui, Cincy, Northwestern, UNLV, and Marquette, that should be enough to have them in the at-large conversation. They get A-10 round robins with VCU, St. Louis, and Loyola, all of which should be good resume builders. Come March, this will likely be a team on the bubble with their tourney resume hinging on how well they do in non-con play.

This team feels like they have a low floor and very high ceiling based on a series of ifs. If guys like Alexander and Key can come in and be A-10 stars, if Malachi Smith can stay healthy, if Marvel Allen can turn his high-upside talent into on-court production, then this Dayton team can be an A-10 and at-large bid contender. But if Posh tries to take over games, if Key is better suited as a role-player, if Smith gets injured again, and if there aren't answers on the bench to address those questions, things could go very bad for Dayton. This should be a Q1 road opportunity, but without an All-American like Toppin or Holmes, there's the possibility things go very wrong.

Marquette Connection

Shaka Smart began his head coaching career at VCU, where he replaced now-Dayton head coach Anthony Grant. Those two men are responsible for the resurgence of VCU basketball. Grant's 2007 team earned VCU's first tourney win in over 20 years, while Smart's 2011 Final Four team followed by NCAA wins in 2012 and 2013 helped spur the most succesful run in program history, earning 12 NCAA bids in a 17-year span. While they never coached on the same staff, both Grant and Smart were assistants to Billy Donovan at Florida when they took the VCU job. The two also have faced off twice in the past, as Grant's Alabama program agreed to a home-and-home with VCU in 2011 and 2012. The teams split the results, with Grant beating Smart 72-64 in Tuscaloosa in 2011 while Smart got revenge in Richmond the next year with a 73-54 victory.

Wisconsin Preview, 2024-25

Wisconsin Badgers

December 7th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Greg Gard (186-107)

Three-Year NET Average: 41.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 38.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 41

Max Klesmit has mastered the "opponent is close, pretend I was fouled" motion.

Picture by Andy Manis | AP Photo

State of the Program

Wisconsin has long prided itself on stability. They rarely took transfers, their players didn't transfer out (unless they lost their love for the game), and they ran a system that always finished in the top-40 of kenpom (15 straight years from 2003-2017). All of this happened despite opposing fans regularly predicting the new Badger roster wouldn't be good enough. Last year's results mirrored that history, with A.J. Storr stepping up as the go-to scorer, Wisconsin starting the year 16-4, reaching the Big 10 Tournament final, and finishing #17 at kenpom. A late-season slump and upset loss to James Madison in the NCAA Tournament may have soured the season, but consistency and quality looked to be back. In terms of the roster, though, the times they are a-changing. Storr and three-year starting point guard Chucky Hepburn transferred out of the program, along with once heralded Connor Essegian. Gard reacted by bringing in a trio of transfers to bolster the roster. The question is will all the turnover have a negative impact on results.

Rotation

The first of the transfers is Camren Hunter, a prolific scoring guard from Central Arkansas. He's a solid inside-outside threat who made his team better at every level of offense. The downside is he's not a great defender and it's hard to assess how well a guy who has always been on sub-300 teams will adjust to high-major basketball. Max Klesmit has made that transition successfully. While he doesn't score as much as he did at Wofford due to lower usage, he had career highs in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and three point percentage while providing solid defense. John Blackwell will be the guy Bucky fans are hoping breaks out. He's a high-efficiency sniper who also excels at getting to the rim and the free throw line. Xavier Amos is the other likely transfer starter. The Northern Illinois transfer is a long athlete who is excellent both at the rim and at the arc. He's a lethal catch-and-shoot option (1.2 ppp/85th percentile) who like Hunter needs to show he can step up from sub-300 to high-major. Steven Crowl is somewhat unsung, but should be the star of this team. Crowl shot 44.8% from three, 61.6% at the rim, grabbed 9.9% of offensive rebounds, 21.5% of defensive rebounds, and did it all at a high efficiency. The bench is unproven but talented. Daniel Freitag looks like the next annoyingly good Badger guard. He's a productive scorer with great defensive length (6'8" wingspan) who should be a day one contributor. Don't be shocked if Freitag works his way into the starting lineup and is a breakout freshman. John Tonje was a high-level performer in the Mountain West at Colorado State, but will have to bounce back from an injury-plagued year at Missouri. Nolan Winter was supposed to be the impact freshman last year, but struggled to earn minutes.

Style of Play

At this point, Marquette fans should be almost as familiar with the Swing as Wisconsin fans are. Lots of ball movement, get the ball into the paint, then either finish there or continue moving the ball to get an open perimeter look. Lots of motion and cutting, running time off the clock, then finding the open shooter in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock. That said, Gard has tweaked his system based on roster composition more than Bo Ryan seemed to. Last year, he had a pair of driving guards in Hepburn and Storr who were not great outside shooters, which led to a heavier focus on shots at the rim. The bulk of last year's offense came from the drive or from cuts, as 57.3% of their actions were rim attack (29.5%), drive and kick (13.8%), perimeter cuts (10.3%), or big man cut and rolls (3.7%). They were in the 87th or better efficiency percentile in all of those plays, so Wisconsin maximized what they did well. When Gard had his best shooting teams, they shot heavier volume from three (2020 & 2021) and when he had Johnny Davis, his teams played faster (66.5 possessions/game in 2022 is the fastest by any Wisconsin team in kenpom's database going back to 1997). If Hunter, Amos, and Tonje can translate to the Big 10 they can legitimately put five shooters on the floor simultaneously. Expect this team to slow the pace and rain threes. With Crowl and Amos, there's the potential for more big-to-big high/low actions. Gard will likely have enough wrinkles to keep it effective.

Wisconsin knows what they do well and do that frequently
Graph from hoop-explorer.com

Defensively, the Badgers run man-to-man. They apply ball pressure, but do so without reaching to avoid fouls. The pressure isn't designed to turn teams over but to force the offensive player into help defense and bad looks. Wisconsin focuses heavily on how to defeat teams that screen, like Marquette. They are taught to both prevent the backside slip of a screen and to aggressively go over screens. They also extend their bigs to create defensive mismatches, which requires the bigs to be able to effectively play drop coverage. Crowl has been instrumental in this. Teams that play heavy drop coverage are often vulnerable on the defensive glass because the big men are extended away from the rim, but Crowl's defensive rebounding efficiency has led to the three best defensive rebounding rates of Gard's tenure, and the best rate since Frank Kaminsky was in Madison.

2024-25 Outlook

The consensus seems to be down on Wisconsin. T-Rank, ran by Wisconsin alum Bart Torvik, has the Badgers #41, which would be squarely on the bubble. Three Man Weave ranked Wisconsin as #57. Sports Illustrated pegged the Badgers as 12th in the Big Ten while 247 said 13th, all of which would likely be on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. If Hunter and Amos can't adjust to the Big 10, if John Tonje doesn't bounce back to his pre-injury form, if Daniel Freitag isn't ready, there's a very real chance the floor is low for this team. Gard missing the tournament for the second time in two years would put him on the hot seat.

However, I suspect these outlets are underrating the Badgers. The first reason is A.J. Storr. Coaches, fans, and pundits alike all tend to overvalue volume scorers. Yes, Storr was productive, but as a team, Wisconsin was 4.6 points/100 possessions worse with him on the floor, and it was a negative margin on both ends of the court. When he was at St. John's, they were 12.6/100 worse with him on the floor, so it seems like it's an A.J. Storr thing. Chucky Hepburn was better, providing a 4.4 points/100 possessions improvement on offense but being 3.6 points/100 possessions worse on defense nearly offset that. When they played together, the Badgers were slightly better on offense, but they were terrible on defense leading to a net -13.0/100 with Hepburn and Storr on the court. Bottom line, while the players they lost significantly impacted the box score, their impact on winning basketball was far less evident. Storr and Hepburn are replaceable players. If Hunter and Amos are indeed high-major players, and their transfer offer lists indicate many coaches think they are, this Wisconsin team could exceed expectations and possibly be even better than last year's. This team may not have the flashy names or an appealing play style, but expect them to be better than the sum of the parts, near the top of the Big 10 again, and in the NCAA Tournament. They have the proven defense to make every possession matter and an offensive system that thrives when it has shooters, which they do. Don't expect it to be easy if Shaka Smart manages to get his first win over Wisconsin since taking the Marquette job.

Marquette Connection

With Wisconsin's current three-game winning streak over Marquette, there isn't a single player on the Marquette roster that has ever beaten Wisconsin. Head coach Shaka Smart has only coached against Wisconsin while at Marquette, so he also has never defeated the Badgers. On the Wisconsin side, there is only one player who has ever played in a game that was a loss to Marquette. It isn't long-time Badgers Steven Crowl or Carter Gilmore. Both were members of the 2020-21 team that lost to Marquette at an empty Fiserv in the COVID season, but neither played in that game. The only current Badger who has lost to Marquette is Xavier Amos, who was a part of the Northern Illinois team that lost last year's season opener at Marquette 92-70. Amos played 28 minutes, scoring 8 points and tallying 4 assists, but came up short as Marquette ran out to a 22-point halftime lead and held it the rest of the way.

Xavier Amos tries to stop Tyler Kolek in NIU's 2023 loss at Fiserv
Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Iowa State Preview, 2024-25

Iowa State Cyclones

December 4th, 2024 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA

Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (169-98 overall, 70-35 at Iowa State)

Three-Year NET Average: 22.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 3

Tamin Lipsey led ISU to a Big 12 Tourney Title and the Sweet 16
Photo by Amy Kontras | USA Today Sports

State of the Program

There were questions about how good Iowa State really was early in the season. Their 11-2 non-conference record looked good, but they lost to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M in the Orlando Invitational, not exactly juggernaut teams, and their gaudy record was boosted up by playing eight buy games with an average winning margin of 39.8 points. They proved their mettle as the season went on. Their 13-5 Big 12 record was good for second in the toughest conference in the country. They followed that with a Big 12 Tournament Championship, then beat South Dakota State and Washington State to reach the Sweet 16, where they lost to Illinois 72-69. T.J. Otzelberger seems to have found the perfect program fit for his coaching style, as his three seasons in Ames have yielded a 70-35 record, three NCAA appearances, two Sweet 16s, and he has outperformed his kenpom projection each year while improving his team's NCAA seed from 11 to 6 to 2. This year, the Cyclones are widely regarded as a top-10 team once again while being a legitimate Final Four and even National Championship threat.

Rotation

The backcourt is the strength of this team. Tamin Lipsey is a legitimate All-American candidate and one of the best point guards in the country. Offensively, he's an excellent creator and reliable shooter, but his biggest strength is on defense at the point of attack, where he's one of the nation's best ballhawks. No returning player in the country had more kenpom game MVPs than Lipsey with 15. His backcourt partner is another defensive difference maker. Keshon Gilbert was originally recruited by Otzelberger to UNLV but joined him in Ames last year. He is a capable scorer who excels at getting downhill and scoring at the rim. Similar to Lipsey, he is a stout defensive presence that can generate turnovers. Milan Momcilovic is fairly one-dimensional as a shooter. Despite his size he struggles to get to the paint and is far more likely to settle for midrange or take spot-up threes. Up front, Joshua Jefferson is a transfer from St. Mary's who seems to fit TJO's system perfectly. While he can contribute offensively, where he really stands out is on defense. St. Mary's was 10.8 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor, he's an elite rebounder on both ends, and like Lipsey and Gilbert excels at forcing turnovers. Dishon Jackson is another transfer from Charlotte who will provide a post-up threat inside and rim protection on the defensive end. Their bench is deep and experienced. Curtis Jones is yet another exceptional ball thief and competent offensive contributor that gives little dropoff when Lipsey or Gilbert need a rest. Demarion Watson and Seattle transfer Brandton Chatfield provide size and defensive versatility up front while both are also solid on the offensive glass.

Style of Play

While TJO has a variety of players that have shown the ability to score, there are no go-to scorers on this roster. Last year's Iowa State team was #52 in offensive efficiency, which is his best mark with the Cyclones, but still nothing overly impressive. Their best offense comes in transition, which is keyed by ranking #2 in steal rate each of the past two seasons. However they bog down in the half-court. They aren't great at driving and settle too easily for midrange shots (10th in midrange rate). They did seem to make a concerted effort to add offensive rebounding in the transfer portal, so expect this team to hit the glass harder next year as they saw first hand (Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois) how much it can help teams that are shooting-challenged.

No one is better at creating turnovers & turning them into points than ISU
Chart courtesy of cbbanalytics.com

Iowa State had the #1 defense in the nation last year. The Cyclone defense is predicated first on turning teams over. They start with active hands and relentless ball pressure. They aim to force opponents to difficult spots on the floor and push them into two-man defensive sets. They try to create effectively a triangle defense that allows two players to close out on shots. While Iowa State stresses putting ball pressure on early, in the half-court they want to create space on defense between the offensive player and the defender. The larger the gap between the defender and the offensive player, the harder it is to drive and the more difficult it is to pass because they have that much more time to get a hand on the ball. The theory is simply that the more space the defender creates, the harder it is for the offensive player to play their game. Otzelberger also preaches taking big steps. His players are drilled to only move toward the offensive player when they are closing out on a shot and are strategic in covering as much ground as quickly as possible. The downside to this is the defensive three-point rate. ISU has ranked sub-350 in three-point rate allowed the past two seasons. The aggressive closeouts and pursuit of turnovers also lead to many free throws. As good as the defense is, the aggressiveness can be exploited.

2024-25 Outlook

ISU is playing a tougher non-con this year, though still have 6 buy games on the schedule. In addition to Marquette, they have Iowa on the road and travel to Maui where they'll open with a top-10 matchup against Auburn, followed by UNC/Dayton, with UConn and Michigan State on the other side of the bracket. Their Big 12 schedule will be tough, with double-dips against Kansas and Arizona. The Cyclone defense gives them a very high floor, but how far they go will likely be determined by the offense. The highest percentage of shots they took were from midrange, which is the least efficient place on the floor to shoot from, while ranking sub-300 in frequency of shots taken both from three and at the rim. I don't expect significant shot selection improvement, but they have good enough shooters that modest improvement in 3PFG% and rate could lead to a significant improvement, while having stronger offensive rebounders could help clean up all the bricks their midrange shooters leave on the court. If this offense is in the 40-60 range again, their ceiling is probably a high seed but a second weekend flameout because at some point you have to score. But if they can tick up to a top-25 offense, this could be a Final Four team.

Marquette Connection

It feels like Marquette fans have referred to Ames as Marquette South for years. So many Marquette players have transferred to Iowa State that I decided to try to make a starting five of Marquette Cyclones. Let's see the roster!

 

PG - Scott Christopherson: He's the one that started it. Recruited by Crean, Buzz Williams ran him off and he went on to score over 1,000 points for the Cyclones.

SG - Mackenzie Hare: It isn't just the men that have transferred to Iowa State. Hare led the Big East in 3PFG%, then entered the portal this offseason right before coach Megan Duffy left for Virginia Tech.

SF - Marial Shayok: Okay, he never actually played for Marquette, but Shayok was a Marquette commit who followed Buzz to Virginia Tech, then transferred to ISU.

PF - Deonte Burton: Perhaps the one that hurts the most, Burton was an explosive freak athlete who was a cornerstone of the 2013 recruiting class, but decided to leave Milwaukee after his mother died. He averaged 15.1 ppg/6.2 rpg as a senior.

C - Jameel McKay: The JUCO transfer made it to campus but transferred before his first year at Marquette started, in part because he didn't want to play center. At Iowa State, he averaged 11.1 ppg/8.3 rpg over two years...playing center.

Bench - Nick Noskowiak: A blast from the past name, the Buzz recruit was released from his National Letter of Intent after Wojo took over. He committed to Iowa State and enrolled, but stepped away from the program before ever suiting up with multiple felony charges hanging over his head. Here's hoping he turned things around after those rough years.

Western Carolina Preview, 2024-25

Western Carolina Catamounts

November 30th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Tim Craft (188-166 overall, 0-0 at Western Carolina)

Three-Year NET Average: 214.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 209.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 280

 

Bernard Pelote is the only returning player that logged minutes for WCU last year

Photo from Western Carolina Athletics

State of the Program

The past three years under Justin Gray the Catamounts was a constant elevation. They finished last in the SoCon his first year, but thanks to triple-double machine Vonterius Woolbright they climbed to fourth in the league and went from #296 in kenpom in 2022 up to #110 last year. Unfortunately for Catamount fans, Gray and Woolbright are both gone, as is every other starter. Replacing Gray at the helm is Tim Craft, who spent the last 11 years at Gardner-Webb, taking over from Chris Holtmann. He sustained Holtmann's success, never had a losing Big South season, is responsible for the four highest kenpom rankings in program history, and led the Bulldogs to their only NCAA Tournament appearance in 2019. WCU will be a complete overhaul, however. He returns just one player that logged 2023-24 minutes for the Catamounts in Bernard Pelote, and bolsters his roster with a mix of D1 transfers, JUCO transfers, and freshmen.

Rotation

It's hard to project what this team will be when nearly everyone from the head coach to the last man off the bench is new, but the strategy seems to be clear. Brandon Morgan was a stud at the JUCO level, putting up big numbers for Caldwell Tech. He can create for himself, find the open man, make threes, and protect the ball. He's joined by Neenah, WI native Chevalier "Ice" Emery, another JUCO transfer who led Dodge City CC in scoring. Emery was also a state champion at Neenah who is dangerous beyond the arc. The third guard is Cord Stansberry, who joins from Pepperdine. While he played limited minutes, he could score at all three levels, hitting 38.8% from three, 55.2% in midrange, and 68.4% at the rim. He played sparingly, so it remains to be seen if he can do that with a heavier minute load. Bernard Pelote is the lone returnee. He will step up from the sixth man role and has proven himself to be a high-efficiency inside-out scorer who is an asset on the glass and rarely turns the ball over. Brandon White is a bit of a mystery. He spent his redshirt freshman season with Buzz Williams at Texas A&M before transferring closer to home. White is a big, physical shot-blocker who had a number of high major offers including Creighton, Houston, and Purdue. The bench will likely be anchored by another JUCO sniper in Jamar Livingston and Princeton transfer big Vernon Collins.

Style of Play

Tim Craft will be adjusting to a new team, but as we note above, the strategy looks clear. His Gardner-Webb teams love to attack the paint, and when he has shooters, take a heavy volume of threes. They rarely get forced into mid-range shots. Looking at this roster, he will regularly be able to put four players who are capable shooters around a productive space-eater inside. Expect Morgan, Emery, Stansberry, and Livingston to move the ball, drive to collapse the defense, then either finish at the rim or dish back out to the open shooter. White, Collins, and Pelote are both capable at the rim finishers who can also do work on the offensive glass. Pelote has the ability to step out to the arc as well, which gives the Catamounts true four-out ability. Craft added the wrinkle of pushing transition last year, something his teams didn't typically do. They don't force a ton of turnovers, but were in the 96th percentile in creating transition opportunities. Aside from an offensive rebound, it was their highest points per possession play (1.17 ppp) so even though they were not efficient relative to the rest of the country, GW still recognized the effectiveness of catching teams napping, so don't be surprised to see Western Carolina attack quickly when the opportunity presents itself.

Craft had to adjust his defense last year. Typically, he likes to have a pair of rim protectors in the middle to shut down drivers. It's been effective, as Gardner-Webb was top-50 in three of the past four years at forcing teams into midrange shots. Last year, his shot blockers all left at the same time, so they shifted their focus to chasing teams off the three point line. Despite not having shot-blockers, they still were 26th at forcing midrange, so the philosophy was effective even with different personnel. I expect White to be the hub of the defense. The guards will try to take away open threes and either funnel to White or cut off the drive to force midrange attempts.

2024-25 Outlook

T-Rank is pessimistic on the Catamounts. Their #280 preseason ranking is 8th out of 10 teams in the SoCon. I'll go out on a limb and say this is one I think Torvik's model misses on. While they weren't at the D1 level, this team is full of accurate three-point shooters. If you take the roster as a whole, they shot 236/598 (39.5%) combined at the D1 and JUCO D1 levels. That would've been top-5 in the nation last year. They have a high-major recruit in the middle of those shooters who was a target of elite programs. And Craft is an overachiever, finishing higher than his preseason kenpom rank in 8/11 seasons at Gardner-Webb. This is a well-coached team with solid offensive weapons all over the floor. Craft's defense was in the top-half of the SoCon in 10/11 seasons, including finishing in the top-3 each of the past three years. This roster is heavy with JUCO players and has 4 scholarship players that redshirted last year. That's not easy for a computer model to accurately evaluate. Expect Western Carolina to contend for the top half of the SoCon, blow their computer projection out of the water, and possibly be a Q3 game by the time Selection Sunday rolls around.

Marquette Connection

The Golden Eagles are 4-0 all-time against the Catamounts, but it wasn't always easy. The teams opened the season against each other in 2004-05 and Western Carolina could smell the upset. It was a homecoming game for big man David Berghoefer, who played his high school ball at Middleton and paced the Catamounts with 20 points. Western Carolina surged out early, establishing a 38-33 lead at halftime and putting a scare into Marquette. It was Dameon Mason who finally clawed back the lead at 46-44 in the second half, but it wasn't until Steve Novak's hit jumpers on consecutive possessions to push the lead to 58-52 that Marquette started to get some breathing room. Travis Diener led the way with 27 points while Novak added 22. Ultimately, Marquette held on for a 75-64 victory in the Bradley Center.