"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, July 30, 2012

Buzz unmatched in turning non-prospects into NBA players, and now 8 of current players/signees are top 100 recruits

In just two years Marquette has had three players drafted who were not ranked in the RSCI top 200 out of high school.  The fact that Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom have all achieved this under Buzz Williams is simply unparalleled and can let Marquette tell recruits that no other program TURNS PLAYERS INTO NBA PROSPECTS better than Marquette.

I posted a more in depth piece on the math here, but here is the math for the players who have come and gone at Marquette since the RSCI ratings started in 1998.

RSCI rankRSCI of ex-MU players%NBALikely NBAActual NBAMade NBA/Did not
1 to 900.8800 
10 to 3000.4500 
31 to 4010.220.220None / James
41 to 7060.150.93Diener, Novak, Matthews / McNeal, Maymon, J.Jones
71 to 10040.10.40None / Mason, E.Williams, Merritt, Mbakwe
101 to 14060.080.482Wade, Hayward / Howard, Bell, Henry, Bradley
141 to 20010.030.030None / Blankson
NR360.010.363Butler, Crowder, DJO /33
Total54 2.398

Dominic James is MUs highest recruit WHO HAS FINISHED PLAYING since RSCI started, but only 22% of players ranked between 31st and 40th like James was make the NBA.

Marquette has had six players ranked 41st to 70th, and normally only 15% of them are drafted, so you would expect just one of the six to have been drafted.  If we fudge a little to count Wesley Matthews, then he joins Travis Diener and Steve Novak to give MU three produced.  Jerel McNeal almost gave MU an amazing 4 of 6, and actually Jeronne Maymon and Jamail Jones could still make it, but since they have left MU I count them as gone.

MUs success continues to grow as both Dwyane Wade and Lazar Hayward were in the 101st to 140th spots that usually only gives you an 8% chance to make it, so on average you have less than a 50/50 to get an NBA player out of six players in this category, and MU is way ahead of the curve with two - one of them still being the 3rd best player in the NBA according to ESPN/Hollinger.  So let's give Tom Crean credit for finding or developing diamonds in the rough.

However, I'm pretty sure that statistically there is no coach in the nation nearly as good as Buzz Williams has been at turning players into NBA players over the past few years.  In addition to the huge jump Matthews took in his one year with Buzz at the helm, with only 1% of non-RSCI players making the draft, a team with 36 such players would normally not have even one make the NBA - but certainly not three.  And when you consider that these three were actually in just two years, I almost doubt any coach has EVER turned three non-top 200 players into NBA players in just two drafts.

Add it all up, and based on the recruits MU has had since 1998, you would expect MU to have produced 2.39 NBA players and instead MU has produced 8.

Current Roster and Recruits

Now let's look at where the current roster ranked on the same table:

RSCI rankRSCI of current%NBALikely NBACurrent & Recruits
1 to 900.880None
10 to 3010.450.45Blue
31 to 4000.220None
41 to 7040.150.6J. Wilson, Cadougan (2014 Du. Wilson, Burton)
71 to 10030.10.3Lockett, Anderson, S. Taylor
101 to 14010.080.08Ferguson
141 to 20010.030.03D. Wilson
NR50.010.05Otule, Gardner, Thomas, Mayo (2014 McKay)
Total15 1.51

Vander Blue is MUs highest RSCI player ever, squeezing into the second category at 30th - where almost half of players have been drafted.  Blue is not projected to be drafted now, BUT the new piece on Wages of Wins shows any NBA Scout watching that players improve dramatically each year until they are 25.  At the beginning of this month, Blue was still 19 and Crowder was 21 - both very young for a sophomore and senior respectively.  As a rising sophomore, Todd Mayo turned 21 in March.

So while players normally make their biggest jump after their sophomore, based on age it could still be coming this year for Blue.

Not only does MU have it's highest RSCI recruit ever in Blue with two years of eligibility left, but of the 19 RSCI top 100 players MU has signed in 16 years, an amazing 8 are either on the MU team now or have signed.  MU has put together top 25 teams with rosters that were not Top 25 rosters by finding diamonds and coaching them up.  Now MU has crafted a true top 10 roster moving forward, and if Buzz can coach up high 4-star players the way he has coached up 3-stars and low 4-stars, the future could truly be bright.

Then you start to look down to the bottom of the table and see players like Gardner who could be All-Big East and McKay who could follow in Crowder's footsteps as JUCO player of the year, and a 2014 run looks realistic.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Prep Rankings Great Predictor of NBA Future, but Value Add Finds the NBA Surprises Early

This year 12 players were drafted by NBA teams despite not being rated as one of the best high school players out of high school. To continue to hone the system of ranking college players (www.valueaddbasketball.com) and projecting if they can make it in the NBA (www.valueaddbasketball.com/draft), Rob will continue to factor in excellent work such as the precise measurement of how much players will improve every year until they are 25 (http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/25/age-is-just-a-varible/).

In addition, I did a study this weekend to determine how common it is for a player not in the RSCI top 200 out of high school to get drafted, and reached two conclusions:

1. High school rankings are a very good indicator of whether or not a high school player will be drafted by the NBA.

2. Value Add is very good at spotting unranked high school players early in their college careers when they start to show NBA potential.

First, here is the table I built breaking down the 770 players drafted since the RSCI rankings started in 1998 to show just how good an indicator a players high school ranking in determining if he will be drafted. I use the database at http://www.draftexpress.com/RSCI/, which differs slightly from the original http://www.rscihoops.com/:

RSCI RankTotal 1998-2011Drafted% chance drafted
1 to 912611188% (will be 97%+)
10 to 3029413245%
31 to 401403122%
41 to 704206515%
71 to 1004204410%
101 to 140560428%
141 to 20031783%
Others (est.)104001111%
Pre 1998 Class75
Total drafted 1999 to 2012770

In fact, players ranked in the top 9 of their class almost always makes the NBA. As indicated above, 88% have been drafted. However, 66 of 72 have been drafted since 2003. That number is almost sure to improve to 69 of 72 when James McAdoo, Adonis Thomas and Bryan Nash go early in the 2013 draft. In addition, Samardo Samuels wasn’t drafted but was immediately picked up and has played two solid seasons with the Cavs to really make it 70 of 72, or 97%. That only leaves borderline Kenny Boynton (projected 52nd pick next year), who could make it 71 of 72. It is likely the out-of-shape and troubled Mississippi State center Renardo Sidney will be the only top 9 prospect since 2003 not to make it to the NBA.

RSCI players ranked 10th to 30th are basically a 50-50 shot to go pro, as several such players from the last few classes are still in college and should get the figure up a little from the current 45%.

If you are not rated in the top 30 out of high school, you are really a long shot. Even just going to the next 10 spots – the 31st to 40th ranked players, have only a 22% chance, and so forth, down to just over 1% of the players who are not rated at all in the RSCI but still make it to the draft.

Finding the 1% - Value Add Spots Them Early

So there is plenty of talent to get among the unranked players, but you don’t have time to watch 10,000 players to figure out which ones are really good enough to go to the next level. This entails first trying to evaluate what their stats mean despite them often playing against much weaker opponents if they do not play in a BCS Conference, and then determine if that ability translates to the NBA level.

We recommended picking eventual 2nd round/non-RSCI players Bernard James, Jae Crowder, Orlando Johnson, Marcus Denmon and Kyle O’Quinn this year while not as high on Kevin Murphy and Justin Hamilton and with Darius Johnson-Odom objectively on the border but subjectively a favorite.

But for brevity shape, I want to focus on what the Value Add databases said about the 24 non-RSCI players who have gone in the last five first rounds. Of the 24 non-RSCI players who went in the 1st round during the past five years, Value Add had projected 17 of them early as NBA prospects. 

Value Add sticks by NO on Ezeli, Fredette, W. Johnson, D. Carroll and J. Alexander 

Admittedly, Value Add missed Jason Thompson and JaValle McGee in 2008, but in five other cases non-RSCI players were picked against what the calculations said. I’m afraid Festus Ezeli and Jimmer Fredette are very likely to follow in the footsteps of Wes Johnson, DeMarre Carroll and Joe Alexander as very bad first round picks. In short, if you were not a RSCI ranked player out of high school AND the Value Add databases don’t show you as breaking out statistically, you are unlikely to measure up as a 1st round NBA pick.

Here are the 24 non-RSCI 1st rounders and whether or not Value Add spotted them as prospect early (YES or NO):


1. In 2011 we already had Damian Lillard of Weber State in the top 3% of players, then we had him vaulting to 19th this year and we pegged him as a clear 1st rounder. He backed it up by dominating Summer League for MVP honors. YES

2. In 2010 we already had Andrew Nicholson of St. Bonaventure in the top 10% of players, and he improved in 2011 before shooting up to the 26th best college player and 22nd best prospect in our databases. He backed up his selection as the 16th best draftee in Summer League. YES

3. We had Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi State as the 21st best prospect this year, and applaud the selection but will have to wait to see if he measures up since he was injured for Summer League. YES

4. We did not even have Festus Ezeli (NO) as in the top 15% of all players as junior, and still only had him as the 44th best prospect this year, a pretty shaky first round pick. He played about where we had him in Summer League. NO


5. While a great college player, Jimmer Fredette (NO) was a worst prospect than all five other non-RSCI 1st round picks behind him in this draft. As a pure college player, he was the 15th best in the country, but with every NBA Indicator red flag – way overused (2nd most possessions), poor defensive rebounder, barely above average in steals despite playing guard. This is just one where you yell, “Don’t take him in the first round!” but clearly a great guy, so we hope he recovers from a miserable first year. NO

6. In 2010 as a FRESHMAN Alec Burks of Colorado was already the 67th best player in the country, and he had already moved up to 30th his sophomore year before going 12th in the draft and having a strong first year. YES

7. We had Nikola Vucevic of USC in our top 3% as a sophomore, and as a junior he was up to 18th before being drafted 16th and having a strong rookie season. YES

8. Value Add spotted Kenneth Faried at Morehead State three years out when in 2009 when he was the 54th best player. He then improved to 36th in 2010 and was the 9th best player before entering the draft. As a rookie, Hollinger at ESPN ranks him as the 20th best NBA player this year – not 20th best rookie, but 20th best player. YES

9. Norris Cole was in the top 7% already as a sophomore, and the 3rd best Value Add player his final year before being taken by the Heat and getting a title his rookie year. YES

10. Believe it or not, Jimmy Butler was actually higher in our database than Lazar Hayward in Lazar’s final year, ranking as the 5th best player in the country and finishing slightly lower his senior year. ESPN subjectively ranked him as the 23rd best rookie this year, with a big role to play. YES


11. Certainly Wes Johnson (NO) had a great one year at Syracuse, but his Value Add numbers were so bad the previous season at Iowa State – not even in the top 5% with poor steals and defensive rebounds, that we just could not have seen him coming as a No. 4 pick. NO

12. Value Add pegged Gordon Hayward of Butler as the 26th best player in the country his FRESHMAN year, and he was even better his sophomore year before going 9th in the draft. Definitely a 1st rounder. YES

13. Value Add already had Paul George in the top 4% as a freshman even though he was playing for a Fresno State team that wasn’t even in the top 200, so this is the kind of player Value Add will find and project out to an NBA player early in their career in obscure locations. YES

14. Larry Sanders was in the top 10% of players as a sophomore and then was one of the top 1% of all defensive rebounders and a top 100 player his junior year. YES

15. Value Add spotted Trevor Booker of Clemson four years out as he was in the top 2% of all players as a freshmen and went onto have one of the greatest careers in the Value Add database. He stayed in the top 2% his sophomore year and then was the 7th best player as a junior and 15th best player as a senior – giving great indication of 1st round pick and great season he had this year in the NBA. YES

16. Another player spotted three years out as a top 100 player already as a freshman was Dominique Jones of USF, who stayed there and shot up to 11th his final year. YES

17. While he hasn’t had the big success in the league so far, Lazar Hayward’s steady improvement his final three seasons from 150th to 90th to 34th in the Value Add database coupled with just missing the top 2% in steals and top 3% in defensive rebounding did point to him as a draftee. YES


18. Value Add spotted Stephen Curry of Davidson as the greatest mid-major player in the database and already in the top 3% of all players as a freshman. He went onto have perhaps the greatest 3-year career in the database, ranking as the 5th best player in the country his sophomore year and 4th best his junior year, before being taken 7th in the draft and currently rating as one of the 30 best players in the NBA according to NBA/Hollinger. YES

19. Eric Maynor was not nearly as good as Curry, but he was in the top 100 in Value Add his last three years and had one great year as the 6th best player his senior year. He has struggled as a pro, but would have projected as a late first rounder. YES

20. DeMarre Carroll (NO) was in the top 4% at Vanderbilt, and then repeated that at Missouri before shooting up to be the 19th best player his final year. Can’t say he was spotted early though. NO


21. Joe Alexander (NO) wasn’t even one of the top 100 college players in the country in the Value Add database either of his seasons, so his selection as the No. 8 pick remains one of the most confusing picks we’ve seen and his almost immediate exit from the NBA one of the most predictable events we’ve seen. That being said, the next two were also not seen by Value Add and they both were great this year. NO

22. Jason Thompson (NO-BUT BACKED IT UP) of Rider ranked outside the top 100 as well, but has proven to be a very strong NBA player. NO

23. JaVale McGee’s (NO-BUT BACKED IT UP) action was limited enough at Nevada to go unnoticed by Value (just top 15% of all players), so we did not see that pick, or really strong performance this year that may put the gun antics with Gilbert Arenas behind him. NO

24. Value Add sees even IUPUI, picking George Hill as just outside the top 3% in 2007 before rising to be the 9th best player in the country his final year. He backed up the selection on the NBA court today. YES

Certainly Value Add points out some other prospects that upon observation cannot make the jump. In addition to Value Add picks like O'Quinn, Crowder, Nicholson and Lillard, Central Connecticut's Ken Horton jumped out as a great college player in 2011 and we calculated him as a borderline 57th pick - but when scouts looked at him he wasn't ready.  Likewise TJ McConnell has been one of the top 14 players his first two years despite playing out of the spotlight at Duquesne, but in watching him he doesn't look athletic enough to play at the NBA-level even though Arizona apparently agreed with Value Add as far as his Value Add and picked him up.  But the point is that while we know to watch the RSCI 5-stars and 4-stars through their college careers, Value Add almost always identifies the late bloomers that may also land in the NBA.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Final Summer League ratings; NBA.com ranks Crowder 9th best rookie

We've posted the final NBA Efficiency Ratings for the two Summer Leagues combined here. Of the almost 400 players, Jimmy Butler finished as the 9th best and Jae Crowder surged all the way to the 34th best and 11th best of all draftees.

However, the NBA.com Rookie Ladder written by Drew Packham believes Crowder is even better.  Packham ranks Crowder as the 9th best rookie this year - quite a steal for the Mavs as the 34th pick.  In fairness, he didn't rank Anthony Davis since he was playing Olympics instead of summer league, and he only put Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as 14th since he only played one game before his injury - but he also included three rookies who were not in the 2012 draft - so if you adjust for all that, Packham believes Jae Crowder is the 8th best rookie from the 2012 draft.

The table below is every player who was ranked as one of the top 15 rookies by NBA.com and/or by the NBA Efficiency Rating.    We didn't rank the three non-2012 draftees, but overall the figures  are very close outside of us not setting a minimum and thus calculating Kidd-Gilchrist as the best based on just one game.

Best NBA Rookies not named Anthony Davis

Draftees onlyAll Summer LeaguePlayerNBA.com rankingActual Draft
11Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)142
25Damian Lillard (POR)16
311John Henson (MIL)314
 12Donatas Motiejunas (HOU)6 
415Terrence Jones (HOU)418
520Bernard James (DAL) 33
 23Josh Akognon (SAC)12 
626Meyers Leonard (POR) 11
728Thomas Robinson (SAC)85
 29Dionte Christmas (BOS)13 
831Jeremy Lamb (HOU)212
932Bradley Beal (WAS)53
1033Jared Sullinger (BOS)1121
1134Jae Crowder (DAL)934
1248Tyler Zeller (CLE) 17
1351Will Barton (POR) 40
1452Miles Plumlee (IND) 26
1553Royce White (HOU) 16
1763Harrison Barnes (GSW)107
1866Tyshawn Taylor (BKN)741
2086Evan Fournier (DEN)1520
33125Terrence Ross (TOR)138
38157Dion Waiters (CLE)Dud4

In several cases Cracked Sidewalks thought the Mock Drafts had it about right prior to the draft, but in 12 of these cases Cracked Sidewalks guidance was that the average Mock Draft was substantially off, and in 2/3rds of those cases our NBA Indicator calculations were right (see our Draft 1 and Draft 2 guidance).

In four cases the Mock Drafts have been more accurate than our calculations so far, as the average Mock had Damian Lillard 7th, Tyler Zeller 12th (we had him higher), Tyshawn Taylor 35th, and Jeremy Lamb 9th.  On Lamb, we noted that we assumed he was better than our calculation showed because of UConn's turmoil and the fact that we had him rated higher than that the previous year - but in the other three cases the Mock Drafts have come closer to pegging the player than we did.

8 cases where teams REALLY should have taken our advice!

However, in many more cases our projections were much more accurate as guides for who NBA teams should pick:

1. Obviously the biggest example is Crowder, where the average Mock Draft had him pegged as a 57th pick, we recommended him as a 13th pick, and he has been even better than 13th whether you go by NBA accuracy (11th) or NBA.com (9th).

2. We recommended John Henson as the 6th best pick, five spots better than the average mock, and he has backed it up by being the 3rd best whether you go by efficiency or NBA.com.

3. We said Terrence Jones should be the 9th pick, 14 spots ahead of the average Mock, and he has also been even better - the 4th best rookie by either measure.

4. The average Mock left Bernard James out of the draft.  We said he should be the 43rd pick, and while NBA.com did not rank him in their top 15, his efficiency has him 5th.

5. Meyers Leonard was recommended 8th by us, 5 spots better than the average Mock, which you could argue was more accurate since NBA.com did not put him in the top 15.  However, with the 6th best efficiency we believe he is backing up our projection.

6. Will Barton barely made the 1st round in the Average Mock (29th), but we recommended him as the 15th pick and he has been the 13th best rookie to date.

7. We recommended Miles Plumlee as the 22nd pick, 15 spots ahead of the average mock, and he has been even better as the 14th best to date.

8. Finally, NBA.com picked Dion Waiters as the biggest dud of the draft, and we couldn't agree more.  If you are Cleveland, you just cannot burn a No. 4 pick on Waiters.  Typically the first 9 picks are the money picks, and even the Mocks had Waiters too high at No. 8.  We recommended teams wait until the No. 12 pick to take him, and in fact he has been only the 38th best rookie and the 157th best player overall.

Marquette rankings for Summer League

As for the overall rankings of all 6 Marquette players (remembering Dwyane Wade and Steve Novak are the vets that don't play Summer League):

9. Jimmy Butler said out the finale Sunday to stay at 9th overall of almost 400 players, and the commentators noted everyone is expecting him to play a big role with the Bulls now.

34. Not only was Jae Crowder the 34th best player in all of Summer League, but remember he was not in the Top 100 after the first game and got better every game out until he was one of the 10 best players overall - not just among rookies - in his final two games.

67. Lazar Hayward looked very good as he enters the last year of his contract which includes him matching up with Kevin Durant every day in practice.

198. Overall Dwight Buycks was almost exactly in the middle, but we hope that his ability to dominate one game and close with a very strong game is enough for the Spurs to give him a shot.

202. Wesley Matthews was just there for one game voluntarily to help work the rookies out, so you really can throw his ranking out the window, but here it is.

292. No way to sugar coat it - Darius Johnson-Odom was just cold and we just have to hope the enthusiasm the Lakers had when drafting him carries through and they realize he is a streak player.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Buycks makes strong case in final Summer League game

With 39 seconds left and the Mavs leading the Spurs 74-72 tonight, Dwight Buycks was the furthest player from the hoop. He sprinted the length of the floor past the nine other players, caught the ball and double pumped in the air to get between Jae Crowder and 6-foot-8 Michael Downs to tie the game, drawing the final in a string of complements from the NBA TV announcers:

“Dwight Buycks again! He is a gamer.  I can tell you that he really loves it when the game is on the line.  He makes big shots and he makes big plays.  He is fearless.  You want players who want the ball in tight situations.”- NBA TV Announcer

Buycks won’t join  Crowder’s (21 points to lead the Mavs to the OT win) or Jimmy Butler (who was dominant again in the later game) on the updated NBA Summer League leaders list, he was the Spurs second best player behind Corey Joseph in an attempt to claim a roster spot.

BuycksJuly 21Crowder
5 of 10FGM-Att5 of 13
1 of 43 pt3 of 4
0 of 4FT8 of 10

The fact is both were even better than their stats.  Crowder missed two shots in the final few seconds of the 6-point win, and both drew fouls and made great plays that didn’t show up on the stat sheet.

On defense, Buycks simply shut down and dominated Tu Holloway – once considered a much better prospect.  With 3:54 to go, Buycks muscled up another point guard in the backcourt, dove to knock the ball away, and by the time the Mavs stole the ball and started up the court the Spurs were given the ball on an 8-second court.

Buycks strong from the start

By the time Buycks first entered the game with 2:52 to play in the first quarter, Crowder had already drained two treys en route to another dominant performance of 21 points and 6 rebounds.  However, with Crowder already having signed a contract, the focus in this match-up for Marquette fans was Buycks – an All-Rookie Team selection in the D-League this year hoping to see his first NBA action.

The announcers, who also bragged about Crowder who they first said was a linebacker, then decided a defensive end, also said nice things about Buycks starting with when he entered, with, “And here is Dwight Buycks, a guy we remember from Orlando (Summer League).  Offensively, Buycks has the ability to take over a game at any time.”

The question with Buycks has been whether he can keep an assist-to-turnover ratio while running the point.  His 2 assists and 1 turnover don’t tell the story of how well he handled both during 21 minutes of the floor – playing the point a good bit of the time.

Shortly after entering he had a nice feed, only to have a teammate rejected.  Moments later he had great penetration to draw two defenders, then had a beautiful dish to set up a dunk, drawing this:

“Nice dish off by Buycks, he set up that whole play.”

Buycks protect ball – draws 3 fouls in just 42 seconds

Holloway tried to pressure him starting at the end of the 1st quarter – and Buycks not only protected the ball but drew three fouls in less than a minute.  He drove past Holloway, and the Mavs big man had to foul Buycks with 5 seconds left in the 1st quarter.  Then Holloway fouled Buycks four seconds into the 2nd quarter, and fouled him again with 9:23 left (Summer League quarters are 10 minutes) as Buycks drove by him.  The only downside was that Buycks missed the two free throws en route to an 0 for 4 for the night, but the ability to protect the ball a good bit of the game and draw three fouls in 42 seconds of action against a quality opponent has to improve confidence.

In just one minute, Buycks drains trey, then sets up three teammates

With 4:08 to play in the half, Buycks drained a deep three.  He then had some bad luck.  He drove and kicked out to a teammate for an open trey with 3:56 to play and then again with 3:26 to play – but teammates missed both shots.  He then drew defense on the next trip and fired a nice pass to a teammate, but another teammate knocked the pass to the ground to deny the assist, even though it was still picked up and laid in with 3:08.  So with a little luck, Buycks could have had a trey and three assists in the course of one minute of action.

Buycks then stole the ball with 5 seconds left in the half and fed ahead for another missed open trey.

Buycks started the second half by hitting another nice, deep jumper, but his foot was on the line to limit it to a 2-pointer.  After another Buycks jumper gave the Spurs their first lead, 49-48, he drew more comments:

“You let Buycks get going and he can be a problem for you … he is stepping up and doing his job, and that’s what you have to do at the end of Summer League."

4th quarter
When he came in for the 4th quarter, Buycks again wasted no time driving and kicking to a teammate for an open 18-footer.  After Crowder overpowered a front line player for a bank shot, Buycks even ended up matched up with Jae the next trip and stuck with him well enough to force a missed 18-footer by Jae.

With 6:39 to play, he drove on Downs to draw a foul, then with 4:08 to play he exploded past everyone on the court to tie the game 68-68 with Crowder closing fast, before once again scoring in the final minute.

His excellent 55% eFG was almost even better as he had three very nice looking treys rattle out.  The only downside is the Joseph was even better, the four missed free throws, and two other jumpers that were forced bad shots.  All-in-all, a great final showing and some wonderful praise, that we hope will get him to the training camp either in San Antonio or of someone else who was watching.

Later in the night, Jimmy Butler topped even Crowder with 23 points on 10 of 10 free throws and 6 of 10 from the floor – and the best dunk of the night on a follow.  But they both know they are playing in the NBA, Buycks at least gave the Spurs and scouts watching reasons to consider if he should be in the league as well.

In just 6 minutes: Cuban calls Crowder dream player while Crowder hits 2 treys, makes 3 steals and ends break with alley-oop dunk (announcers say newly-signed Crowder will make rotation)

NBA TV started out the 2nd quarter talking to Mark Cuban, and ended it by interviewing Jae Crowder as the teams left for the half.

After focusing the halftime highlight’s exclusively on Crowder’s passing, defense, shots and dunk (see "Crowder gets up" here), Kevin Calabro summed up a quarter of comments by saying, “I see now what (Steve Smith) sees in Jae Crowder. You heard it from Steve Smith, Crowder is going to be in Mark Cuban’s rotation this year… I agree with you, Steve ...”

We use a lot of advanced statistics and analytics, and if you follow wages of wins and all those things, Jae Crowder (is a) dream college player whose skills are supposed to translate very well to the NBA.”

Cuban took the microphone to start the second quarter, hours after signing Crowder to his first NBA contract, and told Smith and Calabro it was the first time he broke away from filming Shark Tank to catch Summer league action live. He talked to Smith and Calabro for the first 6 minutes of the 2nd quarter. As he began to talk, Crowder (who continues to climb the list of top players from summer league show here) stole the ball in the lane, starting a break on the court and this exchange on NBA TV:

“Jae, whose got the ball, knows how to play, and that is a big step,” Cuban said, before being cut off by Smith.

“I love Jae Crowder. He is a physical guy who knows how to play, you can play him at different positions, he defends,” said Smith, before Cuban jumped back in with,

“He will defend everywhere, he has a jumper he just has to work on a little. He knows how to play, he knows how to position to space the floor. He likes to play defense, he likes to rebound. He is going to be in the league a long time,” Cuban said, adding later that the Mavericks picked Bernard James 33rd ahead of Crowder because he had served in the military.

During the six minutes Cuban was talking, Crowder had two more steals, drained two deep 3-pointers from several feet to both sides of the key, and started a give-and-go on a fast break that he finished by slamming home an alley-oop from Dominque Jones. After watching Crowder outmuscle bigger players for position, Cuban added,

“Between Dominique jones, Jae Crowder and Sarge (Bernard James), we are going to knock some people on their butts. We use a lot of advanced statistics and analytics, and if you follow wages of wins and all those things, Jae Crowder and actually Drew Nicholson are dream college players whose skills are supposed to translate very well to the NBA.”

After watching Crowder draw a foul at the perimeter off a crossover dribble to split two guards and draw a charge on guard Jerome Dyson at the other end, Smith said he believed Crowder could play point forward in the NBA as well as post front line players up. Crowder demanded the ball against one big man and hit a turnaround with contact and on another occasion went into the lane for a soft jump hook, then finished the game by twisting on the break to catch a pass over the wrong shoulder and get it in to finish 4 of 6 two-pointers (Crowder was one of only about a dozen players to shoot over 60% on two-pointers during the final month of the college season).

Even after he missed back-to-back treys at one point, Smith commented on how smooth Crowder’s three-point release was looking, and he later hit another one to finish three for nine from behind the arc. “We saw the total package in Jae Crowder,” Smith said. “He may get some valuable minutes this year.”

Friday, July 20, 2012

DJO gets stuck on bench behind red hot Eyenga in Summer League finale

Darius Johnson-Odom didn’t do anything to hurt his chances in his final Summer League game last night, but there were some bad signs.  The Lakers had the worst bench in the NBA last year, but looking at the efficiency ratings updated after last night’sgames and the comments of the owner and coach, it appears DJO is firmly behind bigger summer league guards Darius Morris (64th in Summer League rankings), Christian Eyenga (139th after staring last night) and even Andrew Goudelock (20 spots behind DJO at 294th, but a 6-3 point guard complemented by his coach).

With Eyenga hot and the Lakers finding a 6-man rotation that worked, DJO only took the court for four minutes in the middle of the 2nd quarter.  He looked strong defensively again, but it was against a smaller Mickey McConnell who has been one of the poorest players this summer (357th ranked), and he only handled the ball a little en route to missing one shot (though after a nice weave through the lane) and turned it over once (though it was a typical summer league miscommunication pass).

The red flags were raised when Eyenga was scoring 22 points and getting rave reviews from owner Jerry Buss and owner Mike Brown from the sideline.  They also both sung the praises of the Lakers’ other draft pick, center Robert Sacre, but Brown never mentioned DJO and Buss had to be prompted twice by announcers to mention him, and even then would only say,

“Um … you know, right now he is struggling offensively.  Defensively we are encouraged.  He still has a shot to make the team.”  When prompted further about DJO’s NBA-ready body, Buss did add a simple, “Yes, exactly.”

We still hope DJO can get one of the guard spots behind Kobe Bryant and Steve Blake, and with Ramon Sessions also having come over from the Cavs in the Eyenga trade, it just looks like there are six guards ahead of him right now on the Lakers roster.  Hopefully the Lakers opt for the upside of DJO when they reflect on how weak Eyenga, Morris, and Goudelock were before their rookie year, but it looks like the following days will still be a nervous time as DJO and Dwight Buycks hope to join the six Marquette players who have NBA spots pretty much locked up.

The biggest hope is that the Lakers would opt for DJO over Goudelock, who shot only a little better than DJO (4 of 11 average game), and for the talk of being a better point guard had his first assist last night and for the summer had fewer assists and rebounds than DJO, who made a nice stretch rebound last night.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Summer League rankings and highlghts for MU players through last night

Scroll down one post for our comprehensive look at how (incredibly) accurate the model Rob (mostly) and me developed to predict NBA performance.  For example, we projected Jae Crowder as one of the 15 best NBA players who would come out of this draft, and he has been through Summer League.  We also updated the full list of 391 players here, but for easier reference here are the five best, five worst and five other Marquette players during summer league.  I say "other" because Jimmy Butler has the 2nd best efficiency rating of all 391 Summer League players.  Some notes below the table.

1Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)1LV2218712854030
2Jimmy Butler (CHI)2LV36.524.56.513.5721027.5
3Klay Thompson (GSW)2LV29.520.5713.564.51.51.527.5
4Josh Selby (MEM)2LV28.527.59.5161.514027.5
5Kawhi Leonard (SAS)2LV34258.5186310.526
53Jae Crowder (DAL)3LV32.314.7614.75.71.720.716.1
70Lazar Hayward (OKC)4Orl29.815.84.813.
184Dwight Buycks (OKC)5Orl13.88.63.870.
189Wesley Matthews (POR)1LV1573620118
215Darius Johnson-Odom (LAL)4LV18.
387Kyle Weems (GSW)1LV100010000-1
388Cam Tatum (MEM)1LV80021000-1
389Manny Harris (HOU)1LV40021000-1
390Rakim Sanders (GSW)1LV10010000-1
391Moses Ehambe (SAS)1LV60020000-2

One of Jimmy Butler's stick-backs appear on these highlights of his ridiculous game-high 24 points ON ONLY 11 FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS, as he added 7 rebounds while going 6 of 11 from the floor and 11 of 12 from the line to become the 2nd best player of the Summer League behind Kidd-Gilcrist, whose averages are for only one game.

They were already loving Crowder in print and as the main interview on http://www.nba.com/mavericks BEFORE yesterday, but the highlight of Crowder's stickback SLAM here was part of the kind of night we were used to seeing from Crowder at Marquette as he put in 4 steals, 8 rebounds and 20 points including two treys to move up to the 55th best Summer League player overall and 12th best of the 2012 draft class. Darn if he might play a 2 afterall - he really is driving to the hoop from the perimeter in addition to hitting 4 of 12 treys the last two games - as I believe the deeper arc is actually making him jump higher and thus getting more arc on the shot then when his trey shooting trailed off at the end for MU.

Unfortunately Dwight Buycks only highlight here was getting rejected hard - something he made the highlights for in Orlando against Andre Drummond, but except he hit two of his other three shots, both of his free throws, and had a steal and two assists in 12 minutes, so not a bad showing.  

DJO has his last game tonight.

Challenge: Find ANY mock draft that was more accurate than CS based on NBA efficiency so far; Crowder ranks as 6th biggest steal of draft as Mavs are big winners

I'll start this piece by challenging anyone to show me a mock draft - public or private - that was more accurate than Cracked Sidewalks in projecting where players SHOULD have been picked in the 2012 NBA Draft based on the NBA Efficiency Rating through Summer League.

After updating the Summer League efficiency ratings, we sorted just the 52 draft choices from this year by efficiency and ranked them 1 to 52 based on their efficiency (8 draftees are not playing Summer League).  We then compared that to their draft order (Since top-pick Anthony Davis is playing in the Olympics instead, we made 2nd pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist #1, and continued all the way down to 60th pick Robert Sacre being the #52 pick of draftees playing).

The draft winners are the Dallas Mavericks.  Jae Crowder was the 31st pick of these 52, and after his 20-point performance last night has the 12th best efficiency rating.  That means he was picked 19 spots too low - so he is the 6th best steal of the draft so far.  What's amazing is Crowder isn't even the Mavs biggest steal, as his teammate Bernard James was picked 30th of these 52, but has surpassed that by 25 spots to be the 5th best draftee so far and the 3rd biggest steal of the draft.  If the Mavs did this well with their two second rounders, they have to have high hopes for their first round pick Jared Cunningham, who was injured and one of the 8 not to play.

We did not rate foreign players, but the biggest steal of the draft was Tornike Shengelia, who has performed 27 spots better than his 48th selection.  Sacre has been the 26th best player - one of only three surprises to us and the second biggest steal.

Draft night CS correctly picked 10 of 14 draft steals

Another winner is our statistical model for projecting which college players will produce in the NBA (see our draft night 1st round and 2nd round rankings).  When you look at the table below and the rankings we gave each pick, we gave a C+ or better to 10 of 14 players who have turned out to be steals, and in fact gave 6 As and 3 Bs and 1 C+to players who through Summer League have shown they were drafted way too low.

The only surprises to us of the "draft steals" to date are Scare, Tyshawn Taylor and Kris Joseph who received Ds, and we had Bernard James in the middle as a "C" even though were were complementary of the pick.

Cracked Sidewalks correctly picked all but one of 13 duds

Based on the Summer League results, it appears our system will continue to red flag almost all the duds that GMs continue to draft too high despite proven warning signs.  Of the worst 15 busts through Summer League - players who are performing at least 8 spots WORSE than where they were drafted - the only player we thought was a good pick was Jeffery Taylor, and just barely with a C+.

As for the player data base, all season the biggest criticism www.valueaddbasketball.com received was from people who couldn't believe Kendall Marshall was not one of the best few players in the country.  We said he was picked way too high at 12th of these 52 (13th overall), and this summer he has been the 3rd worst performer (50th of 52nd).  We kept advising that Illinois center Meyers Leonard be taken ahead of Andre Drummond, and this summer Leonard has been the 7th best performer (doesn't quite make the list of steals because that's just a few spots higher than he was picked), while Drummond has only been the 24th best performer.

Certainly this isn't to write off either of these players, who we rank as potential NBA starters - but we believe teams gave up many future wins by picking them too high, and it is amazing to see just how close this summer's performances coincide with our projections.

The guys who are struggling are almost all the guys we gave C- or worse grades too - as Marshall, Dion Waiters, Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross, Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Justin Hamilton were all taken at least 10 spots too high based on their NBA Efficiency Ratings this summer.

I know there are still stat doubters out there, but those who ignore the clear NBA Indicators hidden among the stats as a major part of player evaluations are going to make mistakes in evaluating prospects.  While for most that means simply losing some bar arguments, or those making the actual selections that means throwing wins and revenue out the window when the evidence was there to make a better sports and business decision.  Here is the table of the best and worst picks so far, with the grade we gave each back on Draft Night:

Summer BustsCSEffDraftBustSummer StealsCSEffDraftSteal
1Kendall Marshall (PHX)c-501238Tornike Shengelia (BKN)na2148-27
2Maurice Harkless (PHI)c461432Robert Sacre (LAL)d2652-26
3Dion Waiters (CLE)c-34331Bernard James (DAL)c530-25
4Marquis Teague (CHI)c492623Kyle O' Quinn (ORL)a2345-22
5Austin Rivers (NOH)c-32923Tyshawn Taylor (BKN)d1738-21
6Tomas Satoransky (WAS)na472918Jae Crowder (DAL)a1231-19
7Fab Melo (BOS)c382117Kris Joseph (BOS)d2947-18
8Andre Drummond (DET)c24816Doron Lamb (MIL)c+2539-14
9Terrence Ross (TOR)c-22715Kim English (DET)b2841-13
10Khris Middleton (DET)d483612Terrence Jones (HOU)a417-13
11Harrison Barnes (GSW)d18612Miles Plumlee (IND)b1324-11
12Justin Hamilton (MIA)f524210Jared Sullinger (BOS)a1020-10
13Jeffery Taylor (CHA)c+37289John Henson (MIL)a313-10
14Festus Ezeli (GSW)c35278Mike Scott (ATL)b3040-10
15Evan Fournier (DEN)na27198Tyler Zeller (CLE)a616-10

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

DJO and Buycks have final chances to make NBA case this week; Jimmy F. Butler 5th best Summer League performer of 384 players

We’ve updated the Summer League leaders here, but the focus for the rest of the week is on Darius Johnson-Odom and Dwight Buycks.  If they both make it, MU will have 8 players in the NBA, a fact only 8 colleges were able to top last year.

DJO has one more game with the miserable LA Lakers summer league team (which set a record with a 50-point loss to Miami) Thursday at 7:30 p.m. CST to make his case that he belongs in the NBA.  The shooting has been off, but he gets good reviews for his defense and a hope that he can hit treys while Kobe is resting like he did at Marquette BEFORE the double teams came (47.4% as noted in this piece).  Dwight Buycks gets three more chances to show the Spurs the kind of performance he put up for Oklahoma City last week in the Orlando League, and Buycks last game with be Saturday at 5 p.m. vs. Jae Crowder’s Mavericks team.  Here is the schedule for the five MU players still playing:

Butler, Jimmy CHI5 pm vs Hou 7:30 vs GSW7:30 vs LAC3 vs Mil
Buycks, Dwight SAS9 pm vs LAC 7 pm vs MIA5 pm vs Dal 
Crowder, Jae DAL7 pm vs Atl 9:30 vs NOH5 pm vs SAS 
Johnson-Odom, Darius LAL 7:30 pm vs LAC   
Matthews, Wesley POR 5 vs ATL5 pm vs Den 

(all times are Central, and Butler also has a Sunday game at 3 p.m. vs. the Bucks)

One guy who doesn’t have to prove anything is Jimmy Butler, who is currently the 5th best player in Summer League according to the updated NBA Player efficiency ratings.  Butler stormed the court for 25 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal.  After being ranked by ESPN as the 23rd best rookie despite limited minutes in his rookie year, it appears he will see more minutes this year and a major factor for the Bulls assuming they lose someone due to salary cap after that.

However, before our Chicago alumni get too excited, it should be pointed out that in the same Bulls game Marquis Teague hit 4 of 17 shots with only 1 rebound and 1 assist to rank as the 3rd worst player of all the Summer Leaguers (382nd out of 384th).  It’s only one game, but we advised against Teague as a first round selection, and in fact Rob Lowe had to go on MU Scoop the day after the pick to let everyone know I was being way to kind in not trashing the pick harshly enough draft night (I believe “yuck” was Rob’s summary of the pick).

However, with Hayward, Novak, Matthews, Wade and Butler already signed, and Rick Carlisle taking the unusual step of telling the NBA channel that Crowder would make the Mavs, the focus is all on if DJO and Buycks can make the Lakers and Spurs respectively.

Here is where MUs players rank in NBA Efficiency so far, along with the top and bottom players statistically in the Orlando and Las Vegas Leagues combined.  You can scroll down two posts for the entire list of 384.  Good luck DJO and Dwight!

RnkPLAYER NAMEGmLgMinPtsfgmfgaRebAstStlBlkEff
1Markieff Morris (PHX)2LV30.522.5718.5131.50.5430
2Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)1LV2218712854030
3Klay Thompson (GSW)2LV29.520.5713.564.51.51.527.5
4Josh Selby (MEM)2LV28.527.59.5161.514027.5
5Jimmy Butler (CHI)1LV3625716731027
7Dominique Jones (DAL)2LV3326.5918.55.530.5026
73Lazar Hayward (OKC)4Orl29.815.84.813.
103Jae Crowder (DAL)2LV31.5124.5124.5210.512.5
180Dwight Buycks (OKC)5Orl13.88.63.870.
188Wesley Matthews (POR)1LV1573620118
221Darius Johnson-Odom (LAL)4LV18.
382Marquis Teague (CHI)1LV3284171100-3
383Michael Thompson (NOH)1LV50030000-3
384Antoine Wright (LAC)1LV290091001-7

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Most early NBA Summer League Performances matching up with our projections

Rob Lowe and I sent out advisories on NBA prospects prior to the draft, and then revealed the guidance pick-by-pick as selections were made on draft night (see 1st Round here and 2nd Round here).

Granted there have only been a few NBA Summer League games, but if you review the rankings of all summer league players (click here), and compare it to our 1st Round and 2nd Round guidance above, you will see that the projection model has a pretty high hit rate for forecasting where players SHOULD have been drafted based on their initial performances.  The shorter list below is a reference for this piece, which highlights of the performances to date of our; 1, initial misses; 2, initial hits; and 3, Marquette performances to date.

Misses: It's probably no coincidences that one of the four "misses" we see in initial games was a Kentucky player.  I noted in a February 26 post on Cracked Sidewalks, "The only players who get 'cheated' by value add are players with four or more potential NBA-level players, and this year that means anyone who plays for UNC or Kentucky."  We had Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as one of the best five players in the draft, but the calculations showed Bradley Beal and Thomas Robinson were clearly above him and should have gone 2nd and 3rd.  While Beal and Robinson are playing fine early on - as two of only nine 2012 draftees to rank in the top 33 - Kidd-Gilchrist backed up Charlotte's confidence in making him the 2nd pick with a phenomenal 18 point, 8 rebound, 5 assist, 4 steal game - WOW!  That gives him the 2nd best Efficiency Rating of the 359 players to play as of this writing.

The only player to top him (31 to 30 in NBA Efficiency) so far is Tony Wroten, with 19, 8, 6 and 2 in those same categories in his opening game for Memphis, and we weren't sure he was a first round pick.  However, once you get past these top 2, the only misses we see are our underestimation of Robert Sacre, who does rank in the top 3rd of all Summer League players at 117th after we really questioned him as the final pick of the draft, and point guard Tyshawn Taylor, who we thought was overdrafted at 41st, but has so far been the 65th best player in Summer League and actually the 16th best of all 2012 draftees.  Point guard is the toughest position to pick purely on stats - as Derrick Rose actually rated above Michael Beasley in our model in their draft.

However, the successful statistical projections are much more numerous, as the statistical measurements appear on course to be a very good indicator of where players should be drafted as they have been since 2006.  Six players we viewed as huge steals after urging teams to pick them higher have performed well above their draft position and in the top 100 overall Summer League players in Meyers Leonard, Tyler Zeller, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, Draymond Green and Kyle O'Quinn.

On the flip side, many players we advised against picking so high have put up stats well below their draft position including; Harrison Barnes (7th pick, 48th best performance), Andre Drummond (9th, 94th), Terrence Ross (8th, 103rd), John Jenkins (23rd, 114th), Austin Rivers (10th, 132nd), Dion Waiters (4th, 174th), Kevin Murphy (47th, 175th), Darius Miller (46th, 199th), Khris Middleton (39th, 236th).  Some of these players have played only two games, and some five, so certainly any or all could turn out to be great, but the statistical indicators show that in most cases they will be unlikely to live up to how high they were drafted.

Can Marquette break the top 10 of all colleges with 8 NBA players for only the 3rd time in history?

Obviously Dwyane Wade and Steve Novak don't have to play Summer League, and Jimmy Butler and Wesley Matthews will also be in the NBA next year to give MU four definite players.  That leaves four Marquette alums whose performances may determine how many MU players are in the NBA next year.

Lazar Hayward is the best performer so far, with an average NBA Efficiency of 15 after averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds to rank 67th of 359 Summer League Players.  Jae Crowder has likewise put up a solid 12, 5 average through two games, though both are shooting well under 50% to hold them down a bit (Crowder ranks 102nd).  Dwight Buycks had one phenomenial 20+ scoring game with assists, though overall he ranks only 172nd and I don't know if his chances are as good with OKC as they might have been with the Spurs.  DJO had really tough shooting out of the gates, but with a couple of assists a game, hopefully he will be a Laker and be able to learn from Steve Nash.

In a dream case, if all four could make it, then MU would have 8 NBA players for only the third season ever (1978-79 and 1979-80 being the other two) and that would put Marquette in the Top 10 of all colleges.

1Tony Wroten (MEM)1LV251959862031
2Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)1LV2218712854030
4Meyers Leonard (POR)1LV3214341100327
14Tyler Zeller (CLE)2LV26.516.558.5601222
27Terrence Jones (HOU)3LV22.316.7611.37.3100.320
30Bradley Beal (WAS)3LV3118.75.3133.72.31119
37Jared Sullinger (BOS)4Or28.313.84.511.28.310.8118.2
38Doron Lamb (MIL)1LV3420612400018
48Harrison Barnes (GSW)2LV30186.5154.50.52.5017
65Tyshawn Taylor (BKN)4Or29.815.55.512.
67Lazar Hayward (OKC)4Or29.815.84.813.
73Draymond Green (GSW)2LV23.
94Andre Drummond (DET)5Or24.
95Kyle O' Quinn (ORL)5Or21.48.847.
102Jae Crowder (DAL)2LV31.5124.5124.5210.512.5
103Terrence Ross (TOR)3LV3115.35.71541.31012.3
114John Jenkins (ATL)3LV27.714.7613.721.70.7011.4
117Robert Sacre (LAL)3LV31836.75.3100.711.3
132Austin Rivers (NOH)2LV321029.52.53.52010.5
172Dwight Buycks (OKC)5Or13.88.63.870.
174Dion Waiters (CLE)2LV30.510.53.512.
175Kevin Murphy (UTA)5Or22.68.63.482.410.20.48
181Wesley Matthews (POR)1LV1573620118
199Darius Miller (NOH)2LV2172.57.520.520.57
214Darius Johnson-Odom (LAL)3LV20.35.71.784210.36.7
236Khris Middleton (DET)5Or23.

Ranking of all NBA Summer League Players (will be updated)

(FINAL RANKINGS) The following is the list of all 384 players who have played at least one NBA Summer League game, either in Las Vegas, Orlando or both.  They are ranked by NBA Efficiency, which is not my stat, but it is a good quick stat the league uses to evaluate performances by awarding one point each for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks (the same math I used in 2008 when I ranked all 1,519 players in MU history in The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University), and then subtracts a point each for missed field goals, turnovers and free throws.  We did not include missed free throws because they don't appear on the leaders lists, and frankly one missed free throw does not hurt a team as much as a turnover or a missed field goal, so if we had to leave on out I'm glad that's the one.  Unfortunately turnovers do not either, which I'd love to have, but based on watching how many turnovers result from misreading cuts from brand new teammates, it is probably ok that missed shots are the thing that players are punished for in the list below.

This list will be updated periodically until they are done in Las Vegas, and a piece will appear shortly that focuses in on specific players and our statistical prediction of how good they should be.  For example, we said the statistical indicator of NBA performance indicated that Meyers Leonard of Illinois would be a better player than Andre Drummond.  In full disclosure, NBA officials have been impressed with Drummond, but over five games he only averaged 7 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal and 2 blocks a game in Orlando for the 94th best efficiency rating.  Meanwhile, Leonard came out of the gates in Las Vegas with a much stronger performance of 14 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocked shots for the 4th best efficiency rating.  It's only one game, and maybe we will eat crow for calculating that Leonard should be taken ahead of Drummond (though we projected both as NBA starters), but at least Leonard is off to a good start.

The 8 draftees not participating in Summer League are; Anthony Davis (1st pick, NOH, Olympics), Jared Cunningham (24th, DAL, injured), Arnett Moultrie (27th, PHI, inj), and five international players being banked for future seasons in Kostas Papanikolaou (48th, NYK), Ognjen Kuzmic (52nd, GS), Furkan Aldemir (53rd, LAC), Tomislav Zubcic (56th, Tor) and Ilkan Karaman (57th, BRK).

The "LV" or "O" indicates whether these are from the Orlando or Las Vegas summer league, and for simplicity case if a player has played in both we gave him his best total of the two.  In these final rankings I added a "d" by the ranking of any player drafted this year and a 2nd number of how they ranked among this year's draftees, so Josh Selby ranked 4th of all players but was not a 2012 draftee so all he has is a "4," but Damian Lillard was the 5th best overall player and 2nd best of any  2012 draftee so he gets a 5d2 (and clearly was the best since Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's 1st place was based on only one game).  THESE ARE THE FINAL RANKINGS

RnkPLAYER NAMEGmsLgMinPtsfgmfgaRebAstStlBlkEff
1d1Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)1LV2218712854030
2Klay Thompson (GSW)2LV29.520.5713.564.51.51.527.5
3Kawhi Leonard (SAS)2LV34258.5186310.526
4Josh Selby (MEM)5LV27.424.27.8142.43.22.4026
5d2Damian Lillard (POR)4LV32.826.58.82045.30.5025.1
6Markieff Morris (PHX)5LV30.619.86.816.49.820.8224.8
7Tobias Harris (MIL)5LV33.420.88.616.
8Austin Daye (DET)5Orl26.
9Jimmy Butler (CHI)4LV35.520.85.512.86.520.8022.8
10Malcolm Thomas (CHI)5LV27.811.44.68.612.41.401.422.6
11d3John Henson (MIL)4LV32.518.37.814.56.81.511.522.4
12Donatas Motiejunas (HOU)4LV2516.3711.
13Jordan Hamilton (DEN)5LV31.819.27.415.46.43.61022.2
14Ed Davis (TOR)5LV27.416.
15d4Terrence Jones (HOU)5LV25.218.27148.
16Cory Joseph (SAS)5LV33176.413.
17Lance Stephenson (IND)4Orl3119.87.514.
18Chandler Parsons (HOU)1LV2616611541021
19Nolan Smith (POR)2LV2518.57123.52.51020.5
20d5Bernard James (DAL)5LV26.
21Adam Morrison (LAC)5LV30207.613.85100.220
22Dominique Jones (DAL)5LV28.816.4613.24.850.60.219.8
23Josh Akognon (SAC)3LV18.319.35.31030.71.3019.6
24Chris Singleton (WAS)5LV30.
25Terrel Harris (MIA)4LV26.315.55113.
26d6Meyers Leonard (POR)4LV29.810.
27Eric Bledsoe (LAC)3LV33.312.3511.33.75.730.318.7
28d7Thomas Robinson (SAC)5LV29.6134.412.89.8310.218.6
29Dionte Christmas (BOS)5Orl26.412.24.610.
30Brandon Knight (DET)4Orl2914.
31d8Jeremy Lamb (HOU)5LV29.2207154.40.810.218.4
32d9Bradley Beal (WAS)5LV30.617.65.613.44.61.81118.2
33d10Jared Sullinger (BOS)4Orl28.313.84.511.28.310.8118.2
34d11Jae Crowder (DAL)5LV32.216.6614.45.41.620.818
35Enes Kanter (UTA)5Orl2610.
36Kenneth Faried (DEN)3LV25.711.34.31181.31317.9
37Kemba Walker (CHA)5LV31.615.8514.
38Wes Johnson (MIN)4LV3020.57.2151.
39Lance Thomas (NOH)5LV32.6144.2107.
40Keith Benson (ATL)5LV23.613.
41Jeremy Evans (UTA)3Orl23.310.
42Luke Babbitt (POR)4LV30.813.
43Alec Burks (UTA)5Orl26.817.25.4123.420.6016.6
44Maalik Wayns (ORL)3Orl26.711.749.
45Samardo Samuels (CLE)5LV20.812.
46Derrick Williams (MIN)5LV28.815.4411.
47Jimmer Fredette (SAC)5LV28.8184.813.
48d12Tyler Zeller (CLE)5LV22.611.
49Bryant Dunston (BKN)5Orl28.493.
50Dexter Pittman (MIA)4LV1911.
51d13Will Barton (POR)5LV32.8155.612.
52d14Miles Plumlee (IND)5Orl30.6134.6106.60.40.4116
53d15Royce White (HOU)5LV25.
54Deon Thompson (MEM)5LV24.2114.685.
55MarShon Brooks (BKN)4Orl3117615.
56Al Thornton (BKN)4Orl22.513.
57Charles Jenkins (GSW)5LV27.814.
58d16Andrew Nicholson (ORL)5Orl26.
59Mardy Collins (DLS)5LV2512.
60Darius Morris (LAL)5LV28.615.24.8133.
61E'Twaun Moore (BOS)2LV29.517714.53.520.5015.5
62JaJuan Johnson (BOS)2LV276.5258.511.5115.5
63d17Harrison Barnes (GSW)5LV33.616.8615.
64Norris Cole (MIA)4LV30133.
65Reggie Jackson (OKC)4Orl26.515.
66d18Tyshawn Taylor (BKN)4Orl29.815.55.512.
67Lazar Hayward (OKC)4Orl29.815.84.813.
68Hilton Armstrong (LAC)5LV25.
69Xavier Henry (NOH)5LV28.812.
70Derwin Kitchen (DEN)4LV288.33.88541.30.314.7
71Tyler Wilkerson (SAS)4LV20.89.33.8550.50.30.814.7
72Bismack Biyombo (CHA)5LV218.635.460.601.814.6
73d19Tony Wroten (MEM)5LV2413.25.2133.441.20.614.6
74Mike Harris (MIN)5LV239.
75Coby Karl (MIN)4LV218.
76Devin Searcy (PHI)5Orl21.87.435.
77Chris Copeland (NYK)5LV22.813.85.21140.60.8114.4
78Latavious Williams (OKC)4Orl19.
79Brian Roberts (NOH)5LV27.413.84.89.622.21014.2
80Andre Emmett (DLS)5LV24.
81Ben Uzoh (TOR)5LV21.
82Bobby Brown (TOR)5LV22.613.2510.
83Scott Machado (HOU)5LV25.482.
84Chris Wright (TOR)4LV25.89.536.
85Jacob Pullen (PHI)3Orl21.713.74.7112.33.30.7013.7
86d20Evan Fournier (DEN)5LV31.214.84.410.
87Larry Sanders (MIL)3LV25.
88Eric Dawson (SAS)5LV20.473.46.46.810.8113.6
89Byron Mullens (CHA)5LV26.215.4615.
90Tony Mitchell (SAC)5LV22.811.
91d21Perry Jones III (OKC)2Orl2612511.560.501.513.5
92Drew Viney (MIA)4LV22.
93d22John Jenkins (ATL)5LV28.615.66.412.621.20.8013.4
94d23Tornike Shengelia (BKN)5Orl21.
95James Anderson (SAS)5LV26.610.63.68.4520.40.213.4
96Jerry Smith (DLS)5LV24.611.
97Artsiom Parakhouski (NYK)5LV18.483.
98Julian Mavunga (IND)4Orl18.861.83.56110.813.1
99d24Andre Drummond (DET)5Orl24.
100d25Kyle O' Quinn (ORL)5Orl21.48.847.
101Jeremy Pargo (MEM)2LV26123.510.505.52.5013
102Justin Holiday (PHI)5Orl24.811.84.2114.
103Leo Lyons (DLS)5LV22.811.648.24.4100.213
104Chris Daniels (DLS)5LV18.
105Gary Forbes (HOU)1LV171134300013
106Kent Bazemore (GSW)4LV20.
107Garrett Temple (OKC)5Orl26.810.648.
108d26Robert Sacre (LAL)5LV3192.
109Jan Vesely (WAS)5LV23.
110Tristan Thompson (CLE)4LV15.8104.
111d27Mike Scott (ATL)5LV27.2103.
112d28Draymond Green (GSW)5LV266.427.
113Jarrid Famous (MIL)4LV16.383.
114d29Kim English (DET)5Orl3011.
115d30Kendall Marshall (PHX)4LV3372.
116Stefhon Hannah (MIL)4LV17.393.26.21.831.3012.1
117Solomon Jones (PHI)5Orl21.
118d31Kris Joseph (BOS)5Orl21.
119Gary Forbes (HOU)1LV20938520112
120Shavlik Randolph (WAS)4LV17.
121Jeff Foote (BKN)5Orl20.46.22.855.810.20.811.8
122Kammron Taylor (MIN)4LV191047.
123Brad Wanamaker (ATL)5LV186.823.62.44.20011.8
124d32Doron Lamb (MIL)4LV29145112.80.80011.6
125d33Terrence Ross (TOR)5LV27.214.45.2143.61.41011.6
126Julian Khazzouh (LAL)3LV26.3835.741.30.70.311.6
127Luke Harangody (CLE)4LV13.58.534.
128Denzel Bowles (NOH)5LV16.27.2376.
129Jerome Jordan (NYK)2LV211047.540.500.511.5
130Hassan Whiteside (SAC)2LV154.523.5500.5311.5
131Paulo Prestes (MIN)5LV185.
132Carleton Scott (BKN)5Orl17.8837.
133Deandre Liggins (ORL)5Orl24.45.61.644.62.80.8011.4
134Mitchell Watt (MEM)5LV207.
135Talor Battle (LAC)4LV1493.25.81.530.5011.4
136Luke Sigma (MIN)4LV14.842351.31.50.511.3
137d34Jeffery Taylor (CHA)4LV27.311.84.511.
138Matt Janning (MEM)5LV218.
139Donald Sloan (CLE)5LV24.410.
140Chinemelu Elonu (LAL)4LV16.84.524.270.501.311.1
141Lavoy Allen (PHI)3Orl25.76.738.35310.711.1
142Cole Aldrich (OKC)4Orl23.551.
143PJ Tucker (PHX)5LV21.
144Marcus Hubbard (LAC)5LV20.872.
145d35Orlando Johnson (IND)5Orl33.412.4415.2531.20.410.8
146Aaron Miles (MIL)5LV16.
147Kyle Singler (DET)3Orl32.7103.
148Marcus Morris (HOU)3LV21.783.77.751.70010.7
149d36Justin Hamilton (MIA)3LV1992.75.7400.7010.7
150Charles Garcia (PHX)5LV22935.
151Christian Eyenga (LAL)5LV30.812.64.8123.
152d37Austin Rivers (NOH)2LV321029.52.53.52010.5
153Chris Johnson (PHI)4Orl22.
154Josh Carter (DEN)5LV20935.421.20.6010.4
155Shelvin Mack (WAS)5LV24.6114.
156Gani Lawal (DEN)5LV208.
157d38Dion Waiters (CLE)3LV3012.3413.3331010
158Justin Harper (ORL)5Orl2512.24.412.
159d39Quincy Acy (TOR)2LV22.562.55.550.510.510
160DeShawn Sims (PHX)5LV19.810.84.61040.200.410
161Trey Gilder (MIA)3LV18.361.755.31.70.3010
162Jeff Pendergraph (IND)3Orl1841.
163Sylven Landesberg (NYK)2LV14824211010
164Ahmad Nivins (NYK)1LV13844100110
165Cedric Jackson (SAS)2LV13423.51.523.50.510
166Trey Thompkins (LAC)1LV12738700110
167Drew Gordon (DAL)5LV21.841.84.660.
168Othello Hunter (CHA)5LV15.
169Carlon Brown (CHA)5LV22.
170Reeves Nelson (LAL)3LV16.341.
171Marcus Landry (PHX)5LV21114930.40.209.6
172Kevin Anderson (ORL)5Orl20.47.637.
173Justin Knox (UTA)5Orl13.
174d40Quincy Miller (DEN)5LV20.86.82.885.
175Gary McGhee (LAC)5LV14.24.823.650.2019.4
176Alex Young (SAC)3LV167.33530.700.39.3
177Jeff Brooks (WAS)4LV15523.24.300.30.89.2
178Cory Higgins (CHA)5LV23.69.83.610.
179Dequan Jones (ORL)4Orl21.362.
180Frank Hassell (ATL)5LV14.451.83.64.2010.69
181Vernon Macklin (DET)5Orl14.44.423.85.600.40.49
182Brian Butch (MIL)2LV145.52.576.5001.59
183LaMarcus Reed III (POR)2LV1472.54.52.510.509
184Stephen Dennis (BKN)4Orl17.551.
185Steven Gray (WAS)3LV17.
186James White (NYK)3LV226.32.384.
187Justin Burrell (GSW)5LV19.
188Zabian Dowdell (MIN)4LV18.
189Marcus Dove (DLS)5LV185.
190Chris Kramer (IND)5Orl15.
191Paris Horne (CHA)3LV20.35.7264.320.708.7
192Justin Dentmon (DAL)5LV21.492.
193Elijah Millsap (ATL)5LV13.66.6242.210.808.6
194Craig Brackins (BOS)5LV17.28.63.6830.
195Terrico White (LAC)5LV228.
196d41Festus Ezeli (GSW)5LV20.
197Mickell Gladness (MIA)4LV1251.
198Dwight Buycks (OKC)5Orl13.88.63.870.
199Tarence Kinsey (MIL)4LV13.8623.51.3110.38.1
200Xavier Silas (PHI)5Orl21.
201d42Kevin Murphy UTA)5Orl22.68.63.482.410.20.48
202Wesley Matthews (POR)1LV1573620118
203Kenny Gabriel (SAC)1LV1582300018
204Marcus Lewis (POR)5LV14.
205Charlie Westbrook (ORL)3Orl12.783.
206Micheal Eric (CLE)5LV12.641.
207Gavin Edwards (POR)2LV11500.52010.58
208John Holland (OKC)4Orl16.
209Cameron Wells (MIL)4LV13.
210d43Fab Melo (BOS)5LV17.641.633.
211Trent Plaisted (TOR)5LV22.
212Wesley Witherspoon (NYK)5LV16.682.
213Jeremy Tyler (GSW)4LV15.
214Ahmad Nivins (NYK)4LV155.523.53.50.3007.8
215Jamar Smith (BOS)5LV23.810.23.410.61.81.8107.6
216Robert Dozier (MIA)3LV18.33.71.343.
217Blake Ahearn (UTA)5Orl1351.631.22.40.407.6
218Larry Owens (BOS)4LV15.
219Josh Harrelson (HOU)2LV116.52.553000.57.5
220Jamarr Sanders (MIL)3LV1741.74410.707.4
221Jon Scheyer (PHI)5Orl16.65.824.821.
222T.J. Campbell (CLE)5LV16.
223Jordan Taylor (ATL)5LV18.
224Mustapha Farrakhan (NYK)5LV17.
225Dominique Johnson (SAC)3LV1792.76.70.710.30.37.3
226Magnum Rolle (ORL)3Orl146.736.74000.37.3
227Ekene Ibekwe (POR)5LV15.64.41.654.
228Kyle Fogg (HOU)1LV2242321107
229Michael Lee (SAC)5LV16.45.824.
230Daniel Orton (TOR)5LV13.
231James Mays (OKC)2Orl84.523.530107
232Mychel Thompson (NYK)5LV205.
233JaMychal Green (SAS)4LV10.84.31.522.50.300.36.9
234Diante Garrett (PHX)5LV16.44.6251.
235Yancy Gates (DET)5Orl15.
236Josh Owens (CHA)4LV9.852.532.30006.8
237Devoe Joseph (TOR)5LV167.62.85.410.600.26.8
238Demonte Harper (DEN)4LV12.
239Garett Siler (WAS)4LV7.32.512.
240Jerome Randle (MEM)4LV20.
241Kenny Hayes (DLS)5LV16.
242Ben Hansbrough (IND)5Orl14.861.2411.60.806.6
243Jonathan Gibson (BOS)5LV14.47.82.68220.206.6
244Clay Tucker (PHI)4Orl22.393.510.
245Corey Fisher (MIN)5LV186.
246Henry Sims (CHI)5LV15.
247d44Maurice Harkless (PHI)2Orl165.52.55.531006.5
248Mac Koshwal (NOH)3LV9.
249Dee Bost (POR)5LV20.
250David Harrison (DAL)5LV113.
251Salah Mejrl (UTA)3Orl112.
252d45Marquis Teague (CHI)5LV27.410.6413.61.430.60.26.2
253Chris Roberts (DAL)5LV215.
254Robert Vaden (IND)5Orl17.85.825.
255Jermaine Taylor (CHI)4LV17.56.837.
256Joe Ragland (GSW)5LV14.
257Jerome Dyson (NOH)5LV13.84.61.642.
258Mickey McConnell (LAC)3LV14.7313.31.72.7106.1
259Earl Calloway (WAS)4LV13.351.542.310.306.1
260Alexis Ajinca (SAS)4LV102.
261Terrance Henry (MEM)4LV9.531230.800.36.1
262Zoran Dragic (HOU)4LV21.
263D.J. Kennedy (CLE)5LV17.23.414.44.61.4006
264d46Robbie Hummel (MIN)5LV15.
265Courtney Sims (MEM)1LV1542650016
266d47Tomas Satoransky (WAS)5LV13.
267Damian Saunders (MIA)5LV164.
268Stephane Lasme (BOS)5LV12.831.
269Xavi Rey (MEM)4LV12.
270Marquez Haynes (OKC)4Orl10.351.540.82.30.305.9
271d48Marcus Denmon (SAS)5LV14.65.425.
272Leon Powe (CHI)5LV134.
273d49Khris Middleton (DET)5Orl23.
274Adrian Thomas (MIA)4LV17.37.52.572.300.505.8
275James Nunnally (SAC)4LV14.
276Matt Rogers (IND)4Orl11.
277Demetri McCamey (CHI)5LV13.
278Olek Czyz (CHI)5LV124.
279Renaldo Major (DLS)3LV16.
280Darnell Jackson (SAC)5LV14.231.4440.600.65.6
281Paul Carter (ATL)5LV14.241.852.
282Terrance Withers (NYK)4LV10.34.81.5420.50.805.6
283Erving Walker (PHX)4LV13.85241.51005.5
284Garrett Stutz (MIN)2LV122145100.55.5
285Jarrod Jones (SAC)4LV9.53.31.2330.50.505.5
286Tony Gaffney (UTA)4Orl11.
287Antoine Wright (LAC)5LV25.
288Ryan Reid (OKC)5Orl14.641.
289Michael Stockton (UTA)5Orl12.
290Diamon Simpson (HOU)3LV10.73.713.32.710.305.4
291Jeremy Wise (DLS)5LV18.
292d50Darius Johnson-Odom (LAL)5LV15.
293Sean Williams (BOS)4Orl14.84.31.842.50.300.55.4
294Kyle Goldcamp (NYK)4LV11.52.813.240.30.505.4
295Dominique Sutton (ORL)5Orl133.
296Matt Gatens (PHX)3LV106.32.34.710.3005.2
297Olu Ashaolu (MIL)4LV9.
298Luke Zeller (SAS)3LV19.76.72.772.3000.35
299Alan Voskuil (MEM)1LV1551301105
300Kyle Weaver (MIA)5LV14.830.642.
301Terrence Jennings (PHI)5Orl14.
302Chris Wright (GSW)1LV1231220105
303Brian Butch (MIL)1LV1140120005
304Hank Thorns (MEM)1LV372510005
305Chris Smith (NYK)5LV19.
306Deron Washington (UTA)5Orl9.43.812.
307Jeremiah Rivers (NYK)4LV173.
308Courtney Fortson (HOU)4LV14.
309Patrick O?Bryant (PHX)4LV8.52.312.530.300.84.9
310Keith Wright (DAL)5LV123.
311Andrew Goudelock (LAL)5LV22.89.83.611.
312d51Darius Miller (NOH)5LV18.
313Tony Easley (MIN)3LV6.72112.3000.34.6
314Rakim Sanders (GSW)3LV5.731220.30.304.6
315Jarvis Varnado (MIA)2LV152133.500.50.54.5
316Scott Christopherson (POR)2LV1552410.5004.5
317John Shurna (ATL)5LV15.
318Casper Ware (DET)5Orl13.44.21.461.42.80.604.4
319Edwin Ubiles (CHI)5LV13.64.424.
320TU Hollaway (DAL)4LV11312.50.320.304.1
321John Millsap (UTA)4Orl6.
322Tyren Johnson (IND)5Orl12.62.813.
323Malcolm Delaney (DET)2Orl94.50.53.511.5004
324Mike Green (UTA)5Orl8.420.
325Rakim Sanders (GSW)2LV4.54.512.50.50.5004
326Jason Clark (MIA)4LV14.53.51.551.
327Kyle Weems (TOR)4LV1652.
328Jorge Gutierrez (DEN)4LV13.
329Cam Tatum (MEM)4LV13.53.813.
330Cameron Moore (LAC)5LV14.
331Zach Rosen (PHI)4Orl17.531.
332Ryan Richards (SAS)4LV113.
333Hamady N'diaye (IND)4Orl10.520.522.300.50.53.8
334Patrick Sullivan (CHA)4LV8.5211.21.50.5003.8
335Xavier Gibson (MIL)4LV13.
336Ryan Thompson (ORL)4Orl17.
337LaRon Dendy (WAS)3LV63.
338Michael Thompson (NOH)4LV13.541.
339Matthew Bryan-Amaning (NOH)5LV10.42.20.832.
340Derrick Byars (SAS)3LV8.32.71.3210.30.303.6
341Martin Davis (NOH)3LV62122.300.303.6
342David Jelinek (DAL)5LV6.85.21.64000.40.23.4
343DeMarre Carroll (UTA)3Orl15.
344Lazeric Jones (SAC)3LV142.714.
345d52Izzet Turkyilmaz (DEN)3LV11.330.72.320003.4
346Dwight Hardy (MIA)3LV13.
347Chukwudiebere Maduabum (DEN)3LV15.72.313.72.70013.3
348Kim Tillie (WAS)4LV102.
349Ramone Moore (CHI)5LV19.451.
350Micah Downs (DAL)4LV10.
351Patrick Richard (DET)3Orl123.
352Toure? Murry (LAL)4LV8.
353David Lighty (PHX)4LV16.541.
354Jeremy Hazell (ATL)5LV10.
355Darko Planinic (NOH)3LV62110.70.3003
356DJ Mbenga (MIL)1LV500020013
357Justin Williams (PHI)1Orl500010023
358Austin Freeman (NOH)5LV15.23.414.
359Juan Pattillo (DLS)4LV6.
360Morris Almond (OKC)5Orl19.641.
361L.D. Williams (SAS)4LV14.
362Lawrence Hill (LAL)3LV11.72.3142.7000.72.7
363Bradford Burgess (ORL)3Orl720.710.70.3002.7
364Jon Diebler (POR)3LV213.31.35.32100.32.6
365Matt Howard (PHX)3LV8.
366Lamont Hamilton (MIA)4LV111.
367Chase Simon (CHI)1LV1342620002
368Lior Eliyahu (MIN)2LV10.531.551.51002
369Delroy James (ATL)4LV5.
370Luke Nevill (ORL)3Orl6.3212.7100.30.31.9
371Garrett Sim (GSW)2LV3.
372Stephen Graham (UTA)5Orl82.
373Terrell Stoglin (TOR)5LV72.
374Walker Russell Jr. (NYK)3LV14.72.30.3301.7001.3
375Garret Green (LAL)1LV300010001
376Alexis Wangmene (SAS)3LV6000.71.3000.30.9
377Larry Anderson (LAC)4LV8.
378Woodfox Booker (DAL)2LV10202.500.50.500.5
379Ravern Johnson (WAS)2LV92.513.50.50000.5
380Matt Pressey (CLE)4LV9.820.84.50.81000.1
381Taurean Green (BKN)2Orl11.510.
382Reggie Hamilton (IND)1Orl500110000
383Eli Holman (HOU)1LV200000000
384Eric Griffin (LAL)2LV3.500100.500-0.5
385Kyle Weems (GSW)1LV100010000-1
386Manny Harris (HOU)1LV40021000-1
Anthony Davis (NOH)NPOlym
Jared Cunningham (DAL)

Arnett Moultrie (PHI)NPinj
Kostas Papanikolaou (NYK)NPIntl
Ognjen Kuzmic (GS)NPIntl
Furkan Aldemir (LAC)NPIntl
Tomislav Zubcic (Tor)NPIntl
Ilkan Karaman (BRK)NPIntl