"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Crowder 34th by Cavs then to Mavs; DJO 55th to Mavs then to Lakers; 2nd round pick-by-pick analysis (scroll down for explanation, photos, and all 1st round picks)

By Rob Lowe and John Pudner

Jae Crowder went 34th to a team that worked him out twice and seemed to think he was a part of their picture, but then went to the team that took the lead on statistical analysis - the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavs then briefly united MUs great duo by selecting DJO 55th, but then traded him to the Lakers.  Congrats both!

We are starting a new table for the 2nd round - scroll below this post for the 1st round and explanation of these numbers.

DraftNameGradeMockOur ProjWin%Notes on 2nd round picks (1st round below)
31Jeffery TaylorC+243237.1%This is right where we had him - a solid pickup and at this stage teams are picking what they need. Very good physicals give him a chance at a rotation, though with the Bobcats he could certainly start eventually.
32Tomas SantoranskyNA507913.0%We don't yet crunch the European numbers, so can't pass judgement either way.
33Bernard JamesC614329.5%The doubts are about his age, but we actually had him just a few spots below this spot based PURELY on stats.  No consideration for patriotism, so good luck with the Mavs.
34Jae CrowderA571354.2%Forget the Marquette loyalties, all stat guys believed Crowder was a clear first rounder and our system shows the same, while others simply said two short to play front line in the NBA.  Glad for one night all Marquette fans are on the side of us stat guys - Crowder is a Steal (A). No guaranteed money this year, but a steal at 34th from a team that loved him and had him in twice.  Rather have him playing in Cleveland than on the bench at the end of the first round.
35Draymond GreenA281055.5%His great wingspan a much better predictor than his average height, and his agility, steals and rebounding say he is a strong NBA starter - way ahead of public perception.  We had him even higher than Jae, so back-to-back steals in the draft.
36Orlando JohnsonD414824.7%The first pick that we have as not even a reserve, but again the vertical and speed combo explains surprises.
37Quincy AcyC634130.4%Ahead of where the public drafts had him, but almost right where we suggested.  A solid pick.
38Quincy MillerB263038.1%We believe the better of the two Quincy's picked back to back, and could make a rotation.
39Khris MiddletonD405921.0%Our analytics do not project him to be a contributor at the next leve.
40Will BartonA291553.3%One of the best Value Adds of any prospect, and above average at steals, defensive rebounds and usage - even without great physicals, perhaps the biggest steal in the draft as a projected STARTER picked up with the 40th pick.
41Tyshawn TaylorD356120.8%We do not project Taylor to make an NBA rotation, but PG can be the hardest to analyze.
42Doron LambC+333832.2%Public had him higher, but we believe he is the 38th best, so a solid pick, but there were some better available.
43Mike ScottB443533.2%A very strong pick - one of the best few available who could make it into a rotation.  Strong Value Add, but not for a Senior.  Seniors really have to dominate in Value Add to project as an NBA contributor.
44Kim EnglishB523931.9%Has a shot at making it into the rotation, which is all you can hope for this late.
45Justin HamiltonFNotNot0.0%We do not project him to be a contributor, and very surprised the Heat would trade earlier and go with him.  He certainly looked great against MU though, so they saw something.
46Darius MillerF38976.6%I know the public had him higher, but we believe he is a longshot to contribute.  However, we need a "Kentucky clause," because it is so hard to get minutes with them.
47Kevin MurphyF437515.8%Just don't project him to contribute - would have thought this was a possible spot for DJO.
48Kostas PapanikolaouNA427117.0%A foreign player, so we don't have info.
49Kyle O'QuinnA362543.6%Who would have known two future NBA picks were squaring off in the early season championship.  O'Quinn is a strong player in a rotation, great wingspan more important than ok height - a steal in the second round.
50Izzet TurkyilmazNANote0.0%Foreign player - no stats.
51Kris JosephD565821.5%Probably never makes it at the NBA level, but not a terrible pick.
52Ognjen KuzmicNANotNone0.0%Foreign player - no stats.
53Furkan AldemirNA467715.0%Foreign player - no stats.
54Tornike ShengeliaNA548411.0%Foreign player - no stats.
55Darius Johnson-OdomC476418.8%Don't kill us!  We didn't have DJO quite this high, but we knowhe will be one of those handful of players to defy the stats each year and become a great NBA player.  We have to use the model for this table, and it says DJO was a just miss on the draft - but they don't measure DJOs heart and the video clip stats that shot him up the charts to be picked.  Teaming up with Jae, what a pair!
56Tomislav ZubcicNANotNA0.0%Foreign player - no stats.
57Ilkan KaramanNANotNA0.0%
58Robbie HummelCNot6319.6%We calculate him as the 63rd best player, and certainly a solid pick for a guy who could contribute if the knees are healed.
59Marcus DenmonA684229.5%The Spurs continue to be the smartest team in their selections year-after-year, and a great steal.  Might make the rotation in a few years, and great steals and above the 90th percentile in speed, vertical and agility.  There is a reason the Spurs keep winning despite not getting high picks.
60Robert SacreD647316.3%There were better picks available, and despite loving the strength, he is actually in the 1st percentile of all draft picks since 2006 and a longshot to contribute.

A post script from after the draft, there were only two undrafted players who we view as misses.  The only absolute miss was Drew Gordon of New Mexico, who the Dallas Mavericks stat gurus immediately picked up for camp.  There were only three players NOT picked in the first round who we project as NBA starters within a few years, and Dallas ended up with two of them by grabbing Jae Crowder as well. Ironically, both players dropped only because it was perceived their size would be an issue for both of them - and we have them almost even, so there should be some great battles in summer practice between them.

The only other non-drafted player who we believe could contribute is Kevin Jones, who does project as a borderline NBA rotation player, and was a good pick-up by the Cavs.  Therefore, we are treating them as the 61st and 62nd pick, and added boxes below:

DraftNameGradeMockOur ProjWin%Notes on 2nd round picks (1st round below)
61Drew GordonA391653.0%The only undrafted player we project to be a starter in the NBA within a few years.  Gordon was by far the best undrafted player with his 53.0% being above the 50.0% that typically projects and NBA starter, and well ahead of the 37.3% of the next best undrafted player, Kevin Jones.  
62Kevin JonesB483137.3%A great pickup as a his 37.3% projected winning percentage is right at the borderline of a player who projects to make an nba rotation (37.5%), so getting him into camp gives them a free shot at a rotation guy while they are rebuilding.  Besides Gordon, one of only two undrafted players who we project to contribute - both probably passed up because of size.

There are a few other players we project a little higher than a few of the last picks in the draft, but really at that point you are picking players who probably do not make a rotation, so we can not say Scott Machado, Hollis Thompson, Tu Holloway, Henry Sims, Ken Horton, JaMychal Green or any of the others are "misses" in the draft.  Maybe you see a couple of them on NBA rosters at some point, but we do not project any of them as draft "misses."  And as for the only team to not come out of the draft with an actual pick, we have to give the LA Clippers a "B" for basically getting Lamar Odom out of the draft:

DrNameGradeMockOur ProjWin%Note
53Lamar Odom (via Furkan)BNANANAThe Clippers drafted Furkan Aldemir 53rd as a way to get Lamar Odom on their roster.  Despite his woes last year, there is a much better chance of Odom being a major contributor or even starter than a 53rd pick, so this draft and trade has to get a "B" for the one team that finished the night without a draftee.  If we treat Odom as the draftee in the 53rd spot, that is a great move because the only available player to be better long-term would have been Drew Gordon, but in the short-term you want Odom to try to win NOW with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

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