"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

DJO passes eye test, national stat source says Crowder 2nd best in draft, but will names be called tomorrow?

As I travel to Newark for tomorrow night’s NBA draft, there are still doubters that Marquette will leave tomorrow night as one of only 15 colleges with seven or more NBA players or draftees (see complete table at end of post of all teams).

The average of 11 mock drafts had DJO as a somewhat shaky 47th pick, and Crowder as a very borderline 57th of 60 picks.  Many in public drafts simply believe both are too short to make it in the NBA, and even MU fans don’t hold out much hope for a third straight year of a surprise first round pick (Hayward, Butler) after the disappointment of the Three Amigos being passed over, as shown by this poll on MU Scoop:

MU FansCrowderDJO
1st round15%10%
Top 45 picks51%46%
46-60th pick25%33%

If Crowder or DJO are called 30th, they are locked into contracts close to $1,020,960 for this coming season and $1,066,920 for 2013-14.  If they are picked 31st through 60th, as most MU fans expect, then they are basically trying out for a team.  If not at all, their odds of making a team go down, but they can pick between offers and try the Wesley Matthews route, which resulted in a $9 million second year contract, the biggest ever for a second year player, precisely because he was NOT locked into a 2nd year deal.

Those who rely more on the eye test believe DJO’s 41.5 inch vertical, tops of all prospects, vaulted him to a higher level.

While I never write about my calculations of NBA potential, a respected expert who has caught many GM draft day mistakes in the past just projected that Jae Crowder will turn out to be the 2nd best NBA player of any prospect in this draft behind only Anthony Davis.

If all the hard work pays off, then Marquette would close out the night as one of only 15 teams with seven former players in the NBA.   The Wall Street Journal did a nice piece ranking colleges base on NBA minutes played by this year.

I took the projected Draft Order from Draft Express, which was the most accurate in projecting the players invited to the NBA combine, and matched them with the minutes played by the rookies this year and added them into last year’s total.  (Normally that would make the overall minutes too high, but because of the strike, it works out about right.)

Brandon Knight played the most minutes of any rookie this year (2128 for Detroit), so I gave Anthony Davis and Kentucky 2128 minutes for him as the No. 1 pick in Draft Express.  Going down the list, that gives Draft Express 43rd pick Crowder a projected 331 minutes (same as E’Twaun Moore put in for Boston for 43rd among rookies), and DJO projects at 243 minutes as the 49th pick in Draft Express (same as Malcolm Lee got for Minnesota).

If that played out, Marquette would actually DROP to 17th in NBA minutes next year even with the additions of DJO and Crowder, being passed by Syracuse (Dion Waiters, Fab Melo and Kris Joseph add 2630 minutes to get them to 7769), but other than that only behind UConn in the Big East.

The closest competition MU would have within the conference would be from future member Memphis (4843 minutes to be 4 spots behind MU at 21st overall), Georgetown (4363, 23rd) and Villanova (4316, 24th).  There would still be a nice drop from there to the rest of the conference, with Moe Harkless likely adding a lot of minutes to what is already being put up by Crowder’s favorite player, the former Ron Artest/Metta World Peace and a few from DJ Kennedy.

The minutes by conference are followed by the Big East teams (only teams with 2000 or more minutes included), followed by the new projected national leaders.  Intresting that the trio of MU, Georgetown and Villanova are the top three NBA producers except for UConn.

  1. ACC - 77405 NBA Minutes projected next season
  2. SEC - 59930
  3. Pac 12 - 57769
  4. Big East - 48166
  5. Big 12 - 36832
  6. Others - 33631
  7. Big Ten – 28031 (great teams, but the style does not lend itself)

And here is the table of the Big East teams who should have at least 2000 minutes:

RnkTeam20122012 MinProjected 2012 PicksDraft MinProj Min
5Connecticut1211656Andre Drummond  C, Jeremy Lamb SG298914645
14Syracuse65139Dion Waiters  SG, Fab Melo C, Kris Joseph SF26307769
17Marquette55373Jae Crowder  SF/PF, Darius Johnson-Odom PG/SG5745947
23Georgetown34228Henry Sims  PF/C1354363
24Villanova34316None this year04316
36St. John's21722Moe Harkless  SF12272949
37Cincinnati32848None this year02848
39Louisville52778None this year02778
45Pittsburgh32551None this year02551
 Total Big East Min4240611not counted 654 WVU, etc.755548166

And Kentucky would overtake Duke and UCLA for the top spot, with Missouri and Baylor breaking into the Top 50 overall.  Interesting that the top 6 teams hardly play football, except for an occasional team for UNC:

RnkTeamPls2012 minProjected 2012 PicksNew MinProj
1Kentucky1617159Anthony Davis  PF, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF, Terrence Jones PF, Marquis Teague PG, Doron Lamb SG, Darius Miller SF675723916
2Duke1621609Austin Rivers  SG, Miles Plumlee C212523734
3North Carolina1216904Harrison Barnes  SF, John Henson PF, Tyler Zeller C, Kendall Marshall PG559622500
4UCLA1618029None this year018029
5Connecticut1211656Andre Drummond  C, Jeremy Lamb SG298914645
6Kansas1112152Thomas Robinson  PF, Tyshawn Taylor PG234314495
7Florida1012652Bradley Beal  SG179214444
8Arizona1112730None this year012730
9Texas1311539J'Covan Brown  PG/SG12511664
10Georgia Tech710523None this year010523
11Wake Forest710261None this year010261
12Ohio State67903Jared Sullinger  C, William Buford SG12469149
13Southern California67924None this year07924
14Syracuse65139Dion Waiters  SG, Fab Melo C, Kris Joseph SF26307769
15Washington65100Terrence Ross  SG/SF, Tony Wroten PG/SG20467146
16LSU66780None this year06780
17Marquette55373Jae Crowder  SF/PF, Darius Johnson-Odom PG/SG5745947
18Alabama35375JaMychal Green  PF/C1795554
19Xavier35121Tu Holloway  PG1185239
20Michigan State44187Draymond Green  PF7794966
21Memphis54209Will Barton  SF6344843
22Arkansas44528None this year04528
23Georgetown34228Henry Sims  PF/C1354363
24Villanova34316None this year04316
25Maryland44059None this year04059
26UNLV34021None this year04021
27Nevada43903None this year03903
28Stanford53724None this year03724
29Illinois22275Meyers Leonard  C14033678
30California33359None this year03359
31Florida State52695Bernard James  C5413236
32Oklahoma State43172None this year03172
33Fresno State33154None this year03154
34Boston College43092None this year03092
35Wisconsin33062None this year03062
36St. John's21722Moe Harkless  SF12272949
37Cincinnati32848None this year02848
38Butler22794None this year02794
39Louisville52778None this year02778
40Saint Joseph's22766None this year02766
41Texas A&M22467Khris Middleton  SF2522719
42Oregon22684None this year02684
43Oklahoma22662None this year02662
44Minnesota22611None this year02611
45Pittsburgh32551None this year02551
46Missouri32069Kim English  SG/SF4242493
47New Mexico22101Drew Gordon  PF3592460
48Michigan42428None this year02428
49Creighton22351None this year02351
50Baylor1462Perry Jones  PF, Quincy Miller SF18842346

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