"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, January 26, 2015

Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten

In a piece on Coach K on Breitbart this morning, I noted that Duke players had dominated the Value Add rankings (see 2003-2015 players here) with 35 top 100 players and eight top 10 players - but the table also noted that Marquette had the 10th most top 100 players (18) and the third most top 10 players (Butler, Crowder, Diener, Wade).

The weekly run of the www.valueaddbasketball.com numbers tonight (database not updated yet) showed Marquette now has their 19th top 100 player in Matt Carlino, and Derrick Wilson is one of the most improved players in jumping from a 0,00 Value Add last season to 3.42 - the 27th best total in the tough Big East.

Carlino's recent impersonation of Steve Novak (19 of 33 treys for 58% and 18-19 free throws for 95% in last four games) has shot him all the way to 94th. I know "top 100" does not sound great - but it is phenomenal when you consider the 4000+ players in the country. In fact, I get lots of complaints from around the country in disbelief that a local star is not in the top 100.

The fact that Carlino did this against defenses that were were very good: one average (Creighton100.6 points per 100 trips just better than average), one good (Xavier 98.3) and two excellent (St. John's 92.9 and Georgetown 94.3) shoots him way up the list. Carlino is worth 6.30 extra points a game to MU according to Value Add - the 8th best total in the Big East.

But Derrick's surge is the more surprising and really makes the case for a potential quiet most improved player of the year. Wilson never hit even 1.00 in his first three seasons, and last year collapsed to a 0.00 only because we do not give negative numbers.

The thing that Value Add measures that most do not see are players who do not make mistakes - and Derrick has turned into one of the best at not COSTING MU points:

The thing that makes Derrick so much more valuable this year is not that he suddenly doesn't mind going to the hoop to slam twice in a short span (once while being mauled), or that his three-pointer has become just enough of a threat that you cannot leave him alone.

Ken Pomeroy measures Derrick as one of the best at avoiding fouls. He takes so few bad shots, that Derrick IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE SHOOTER THIS SEASON (jumped from 40.9 eFG% last year to 49.0% this season). Yes, the free throw percentage overall is dreadful, but his 58% since Thanksgiving is not that bad - so all the offseason shooting has paid off.

The fun starts when you compare Derrick to three point guards that some considered the best three in the country coming into this year; UNC's Marcus Paige, Kentucky's Andrew Harrison and West Virginia's Juwan Staten.

Obviously those three are light years ahead of Derrick on offense, and may make take over games on the way to title runs. But ignore the differences in shooting for a minute. Derrick's on-ball defense is excellent, so lets go through the other numbers:

Derrick has come up with 23 steals, the exact average of Paige/Harrison/Staten

Derrick has done this while committing only 31 fouls - an incredible ratio and just one more foul than the average of the Big Three - and with Derrick having to commit a few late fouls to stop the clock really no difference there.

Here is where it gets fun - Derrick has come up with those steals on one end of the court while only turning the ball over 25 times at the other end -meaning he has turned the ball over A DOZEN TIMES FEWER than the average of the Big 3 (37 turnovers). Remember, there are over twice as many turnovers as steals due to balls thrown out of bounds, travels, etc.

The big three have only a slight edge over Derrick in assists - 78 to 70 - despite MU playing at a slow tempo. But that is more than made up for by Derrick ripping down 15 more rebounds that the average of the other three (62 to 47 edge).

Of course once you add in the offensive explosiveness of those three they are all still in the top 5% of all players and average a 5.71 Value Add, while Derrick comes in at 437th with a 3.42 Value Add, but he has worked very hard to do the things he can do very well and be a strong contributor.

With advanced apologies to MUScoop readers who of course can never read the Top 100 when the code is jumped when these Cracked Sidewalks posts are pulled over to the scoop - here are the top 100 players in the Big East.

PlayerNatlBETeamValue add
15 Sir'Dominic Pointer141St. John's8.42
4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera172Georgetown8.31
23 LaDontae Henton483Providence7.19
40 Matt Stainbrook624Xavier6.89
3 Kris Dunn665Providence6.82
4 Sterling Gibbs806Seton Hall6.50
11 D'Angelo Harrison837St. John's6.43
13 Matt Carlino948Marquette6.30
4 Darrun Hilliard999Villanova6.21
23 Daniel Ochefu13610Villanova5.70
31 Kameron Woods14511Butler5.58
3 Josh Hart15512Villanova5.44
24 Joshua Smith16813Georgetown5.31
3 Alex Barlow17614Butler5.24
2 Brandon Mobley18715Seton Hall5.05
31 Angel Delgado19416Seton Hall4.94
15 Ryan Arcidiacono20817Villanova4.80
24 Kellen Dunham21818Butler4.74
12 Chris Obekpa25619St. John's4.45
5 Trevon Bluiett26920Xavier4.37
31 Dylan Ennis28921Villanova4.20
21 Roosevelt Jones33222Butler3.97
55 Jabril Trawick35523Georgetown3.84
1 Jalen Reynolds37824Xavier3.71
11 Dee Davis38125Xavier3.68
5 Billy Garrett38826DePaul3.66
12 Derrick Wilson43727Marquette3.42
15 Myles Davis44528Xavier3.38
22 JayVaughn Pinkston45929Villanova3.31
1 Duane Wilson46730Marquette3.28
0 Khadeen Carrington46931Seton Hall3.27
4 Myke Henry47632DePaul3.24
33 Carson Desrosiers47933Providence3.24
25 Durrell McDonald48534DePaul3.23
2 Kris Jenkins48735Villanova3.21
21 Isaiah Zierden50036Creighton3.16
23 Rysheed Jordan50737St. John's3.14
20 Desi Rodriguez55238Seton Hall3.00
25 Tyler Harris56339Providence2.98
10 Remy Abell59040Xavier2.87
10 Juan Anderson59341Marquette2.86
21 Jamee Crockett65742DePaul2.67
15 Isaiah Whitehead68543Seton Hall2.57
1 Austin Chatman68944Creighton2.56
45 Andrew Chrabascz70245Butler2.53
13 Paul White76946Georgetown2.37
23 Aaron Bowen83447Georgetown2.22
3 Mikael Hopkins84648Georgetown2.18
0 Jamal Branch86149St. John's2.16
40 Luke Fischer88350Marquette2.11
5 Sandy Cohen88851Marquette2.10
23 JaJuan Johnson89252Marquette2.09
11 Forrest Robinson97253DePaul1.96
55 J.P. Macura99854Xavier1.92
32 Toby Hegner101355Creighton1.89
11 Isaac Copeland103556Georgetown1.86
5 Phil Booth109557Villanova1.75
1 Phil Greene110058St. John's1.74
2 Tommy Hamilton111159DePaul1.72
31 Will Artino119760Creighton1.60
23 James Milliken127661Creighton1.51
3 Brandon Randolph129262Xavier1.50
1 Tre Campbell130963Georgetown1.48
25 Steve Taylor131264Marquette1.47
24 Kyron Cartwright133065Providence1.46
0 L.J. Peak133766Georgetown1.45
5 Devin Brooks139167Creighton1.39
2 James Farr148368Xavier1.28
0 Austin Etherington157769Butler1.17
15 Ricky Kreklow163170Creighton1.12
30 Jaren Sina178271Seton Hall1.00
4 Tyler Wideman179372Butler0.99
15 Aaron Simpson179973DePaul0.98
13 Paschal Chukwu180674Providence0.97
21 Jalen Lindsey192675Providence0.83
30 Deonte Burton213876Marquette0.64
30 Kelan Martin220477Butler0.58
22 Ted Bancroft226178Providence0.53
45 Stephane Manga232079Seton Hall0.49
41 Geoffrey Groselle235080Creighton0.47
33 Joe Hanel245181DePaul0.39
24 Felix Balamou248482St. John's0.38
13 Jackson Davis252183Butler0.36
14 Amar Alibegovic252584St. John's0.36
32 Junior Lomomba257885Providence0.33
11 Jackson Aldridge260686Butler0.32
4 Edmond Sumner263687Xavier0.30
0 Larry Austin263788Xavier0.30
1 Darrick Wood263889DePaul0.30
22 Avery Dingman272690Creighton0.24
0 R.J. Curington273891DePaul0.23
13 Haralds Karlis273992Seton Hall0.23
25 Rashed Anthony274493Seton Hall0.23
42 Chier Ajou275694Seton Hall0.23
14 Darryl Reynolds280295Villanova0.20
0 Leon Gilmore285896Creighton0.16
20 Patrick Farrell287597Villanova0.15
2 Myles Stewart288498St. John's0.15
4 Christian Jones289999St. John's0.13
14 Ismael Sanogo2900100Seton Hall0.13

Coach 1000K Rules Analytics Era, but MU One of the Top Producers

Well finally getting up for my second game of the year put me in the basketball writing spirit despite the heartbreak.

I have two pieces running at www.breitbart.com tomorrow – one on how high www.valueaddbasketball.com had Hassan Whiteside rated (9th best freshman in 2010) five years before his 12 blocked shot for you analytics critics. Second and more relevant is the breakdown of which schools produce the most talent from the 13-year of Value Add rankings. While Coach K’s Duke teams have dominated, Wisconsin and Marquette are the only other two schools in the country with even four top 10 players (Wade, Diener, Butler and Crowder) and our 18 top 100 players puts us in the top 20.

Here is the breakdown of the only 20 schools with at least 10 top 100 players and more than one top 10 player, when you go to the full 13-year database at http://valueaddbasketball.com/ballall.html

1, Duke, Eight top 10: Plumlee, Redick (2), Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Williams (2), Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 35

2, Wisconsin, Five top 10: Harris, Kaminsky, Taylor (2), Wilkinson, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 19

3, Marquette, Four top 10: Butler, Crowder, Diener, Wade, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 18

4, Kentucky, Three top 10: Davis, Cauley-Stein, Towns, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 33

5, Kansas, Three top 10: Aldrich, Chalmers, Robinson, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 30

6, Georgetown, Three top 10: Hibbert, Porter, Sweetney, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 21

7, Ohio St., Three top 10: Conley, Sullinger (2), Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 21

8, Connecticut, Three top 10: Napier (2), Walker, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 17

9, West Virginia, Three top 10: Butler, Gansey, Jones, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 15

10, Boston College, Three top 10: Bell, Dudley (2), Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 13

11, Indiana, Three top 10: Oladipo, Zeller (2), Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 12

12, UCLA, Three top 10: Adams, Collison, Love, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 12

13, North Carolina, Two top 10: Hansbrough, Lawson, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 26

14, Syracuse, Two top 10: Anthony, Johnson, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 26

15, Oklahoma St., Two top 10: Anderson, Smart, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 20

16, Texas, Two top 10: Durant, James, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 18

17, Michigan St., Two top 10: Green, Neitzel, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 16

18, Oregon, Two top 10: Jackson, Leunen, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 12

19, Purdue, Two top 10: Johnson, Laundry, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 12

20, North Carolina St., Two top 10: Hodge, Warren, Total top 100 players 2003-15 = 10

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and global thermonuclear weapons

Another week and another couple of tough, well fought loses. The Georgetown loss was especially tough to take given some pretty questionable calls. We spend time talking about the officiating and the team's performance in the game. We analyze this weeks performance in total and talk about what's good and what's bad. We spend some time talking about JaJaun Johnson and where his game is. We also carry on for a while about Derrick Wilson's best play as a Marquette Warrior....posterizing Paul White. We wrap up the pod talking about the next couple of games and determine if Marquette will actually get over the hump and record a win or two. Download this episode (right click and save)

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Which missing MU Player Could Have Made Us 6-0?

The combination of a narrow bench and four road losses by six points or less made we wonder which “almost” Marquette player could have given the team just enough help to be 6-0 in the Big East heading into the showdown with Georgetown.

Luckily www.valueaddbasketball.com, which was the subject of my interview with Fox Sports yesterday, gives a measurement of how many points each player would improve a team. With only eight scholarship players – and seven for the Xavier game with JJJ not practicing hard - here is the countdown of the players that ended up NOT being at Marquette from worst to best:

1. Neither player that left with Buzz would have given MU another win

Satchel Pierce (0.49 Value Add) and Ahmed Hill (0.24) are worth less than one point per game to Virginia Tech, so even the presence of both players on MUs roster still leaves us 2-4 in the Big East.

2. Surprisingly, we are probably still 2-4 with Jameel McKay.

I projected McKay as our best player last year, and was heartbroken when he transferred to Iowa State. His immediate impact swatting shots and hitting 60% of his field goals had Marquette fans wondering what a difference he would have made. I was surprised to see that his Value Add only calculated to 1.17, and even doubling to 2.34 to account for him becoming eligible halfway through, his presents would not calculate to change any of MU’s Big East results – leaving us 2-4 with him.

When I looked closer, I realized his average Big 12 performance is a 3-5 game from the floor (no three-point attempts) and 3-5 from the line, with an impressive 3 blocked shots, 5 rebounds, 0 assists and 2 turnovers. A solid player so far, but it is easier to keep the shooting percentage high when you only take the easiest of shots, so McKay has not been a game changer.

3. UVa’s Marial Shayok would likely have MU 3-3

There is some satisfaction in the fact that the player that left for Buzz’s rival, UVa, has been much better than the two that actually followed Buzz. Marial Shayok has hit 45% of his 3-pointers and has an excellent steal ratio for a 2.67 Value Add. If he was there to give the team one more body, that means you are basically looking at a tie game with DePaul (58-61 loss) and St. John’s (57-60 loss) so figure MU wins one of the two with Shayok. We still fall one point short on Xavier, and three points short on Georgetown.

4. MU could be 6-0 with DJ Newbill

Which leads us to the nation’s fifth leading scorer DJ Newbill, who Buzz let go to open a spot for Jamil Wilson (understandable), keeping Jamail Jones (ouch). Yes, it could be that Newbill’s eligibility could have run out last year as he is playing this year because of a transfer from Southern Miss to Penn State.

But if he were to be the one addition to MU’s team this year, his 6.09 Value Add calculates to give MU wins over DePaul, St. John’s, Xavier (58-62) and a dead even game with Georgetown (59-65). Jamail Jones looked like the much better prospect out of high school, but this year he is still at a 0.91 Value Add.

With Marquette boasting the No. 1 defense in the Big East according to www.kenpom.com, but the last ranked offense, the team could literally be 6-0 if Newbill had come and was still playing due to a redshirt year along the way, or even coming back after the year at Southern Miss when we had a spot.

He is nationally ranked at www.kenpom.com in shooting, assists and getting to the line as he competes for the national scoring title with a 21.9 point per game average. Further, he is being wasted at Penn State where the team started 12-1 but has since gone 0-6 in the Big Ten.

His 29 points on 11 of 18 shooting against Wisconsin was not enough for Penn State but certainly looks like it might have been enough for MU – so how would 6-0 in Big East with a win over Wisconsin look?

His last two games including 37 points against Purdue and 27 against Michigan State in two more losses.

I am thrilled with how competitive the team has been, but if there was one more guy we could give them for help, Newbill would be very nice. That's my only spilled milk comment for this season.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

A mediocre week and big? changes for the NCAA

Another week and another couple of games with late game fades, one a win another a tough road loss. We discuss the Creighton and Xavier results, what’s the deal with Luke Fischer as well as Matt Carlino – “villain” to hero. We also spend some time talking about JaJuan Johnson’s DNP-CD, impact on the team, and #8strong AKA great marketing/difficult basketball strategy. We then transition to an overview of the upcoming games and what our mediocre opinion of Marquette basketball is. Spoiler alert – wins are going to be tough to come by for the next two weeks. So we don’t fade late in the podcast, we finish by discussing the substantial changes in NCAA policy that were voted on last weekend. We speculate about what the changes mean, how it impacts the Big East and Marquette as well as what the long term consequences might be. Download this episode (right click and save)

Monday, January 12, 2015

Tough loss and a quiet week

It feels like 3 weeks since the Georgetown loss but it was only 6 days. We breakdown the game and what we felt about that game. It turned out to be both better and worse than we anticipated, we're confused too. We also spent time discussing Matt Carlino and what he means to this team, both good and bad. We also talked broadly about the Big East and the next couple of games for MU....spoiler alert, the next 3 are critical. Lastly we talk specifically about the Creighton game and what we're anticipating will happen there. It's a shorter pod, calm before the schedule story so to speak. Download this episode (right click and save)

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Ratings and Strengths of A Balanced 8 Players

We updated the top Value Add player in each conference this story, including D'Angelo Harrison for the St. John's team who played much better out-of-conference. We also updated the ratings of all 4,000 college players at www.valueaddbasketball.com, and you can type "BE" in the conference box or "Marquette" in the search box to sort.

The Big East seems to join the Big 12 as the most balanced conference - no All-American prospects right now in either conference, but every game is against a legitimate point to give all teams a chance at great RPIs.

15. Matt Carlino continues to have the greatest value, improving Marquette by 4.84 points per game on average to be the 15th best player in the conference and 213th out of 4000 in the country. Critics will point to him shooting below 40%, but by shooting over 38% on three-pointers his overall shooting is actually just above average, and he is among the leaders in assists, steals and getting to the line (where he does hit 81%) based on www.kenpom.com.

23. Juan Anderson has moved into the top 3% of all shooters in the country with an eFG% of 59.5% by hitting more than half his two-pointers and three-pointers. He is also among leaders in getting to the line, offensive rebounding and steals, so if he can just cut down on his turnovers and missed free throws he can really shoot into the elite Big East players.

39. Duane Wilson falls just below the 3.0 points or better "strong starter" category, but he would right now make the all rookie team as the 5th best freshman. He has not had a great first three games in conference play, but had offensive ratings above 100 against four very tough defenses this season - Ohio State, Michigan State, Tennessee and Arizona State, so clearly he can beat the best teams.

42. Luke Fischer actually ranks 42nd in the conference since over the course of 15 games he has improved Marquette by 2.64 points per game due to missing eight games. His per game Value Add is actually 5.66, which would make him the 10th most valuable player in the conference.

43. Derrick Wilson has improved from a 0.00 Value Add in previous seasons to a very nice season. He is among the best at www.kenpom.com at not turning the ball over or fouling, and the way he has gotten to the hoop to hit over half of his two-pointers and even five three-pointers this season is giving him a very nice final stretch in his Marquette career. He has always done things we don't measure for stats, so it is nice to see him now moving up the list.

50. JuJuan Johnson rates as a solid reserve and even serviceable starter by improving the team by more than two points a game. The weakness is he shoots much more than anyone else on the team (27% plus of shots while on the court) and the three-pointer has just disappeared at 7 of 39. However, he gets to the hoop and hits free throws, and he has an incredible ability to steal the ball without fouling - one of the only players I've ever seen in the top 3% in both categories.

54. Sandy Cohen would be in the top 60 in the country in shooting if he had enough minutes (Fischer would be 2nd in the country). He has actually played fewer minutes than Fischer and still been worth more than two points a game by hitting 46% of threes, 50% of twos, and 79% of free throws.

59. Steve Taylor has obviously been the most displaced by Fischer, He has been very efficient in just 27 minutes in the past two games, hitting 3 of 5 shots, and grabbing 6 rebounds and 3 steals for an offensive rating of almost 150.

In a 10 teams league you would hope for your top 8 players to be in the top 80 - so obviously Marquette has a very balanced 8 with everyone in the top 60 and adding value and playing their role. A very balanced eight, and with Fischer on pace to be a top 10 player in the conference, big wins could come on days when all play their roles and Fischer, Carlino, Duane Wilson or even JJJ explode scoring for the day.

A very good and balanced team in a very good and balanced conference. Should be fun.

Rnk, Player, Team, PG Per, Value Add

Among Top 1% of most valuable players in country:

29, 11 D'Angelo Harrison, St. John's, SF+0.13, 7.82

33, 15 Sir'Dominic Pointer, St. John's, PF-0.03, 7.67

38, 4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown, PG+0.99, 7.52

Strong starters no matter which conference:

55, 4 Sterling Gibbs, Seton Hall, SG+0.29, 7.05

64, 23 LaDontae Henton, Providence, SF+0.13, 6.98

80, 40 Matt Stainbrook, Xavier, PF-0.03, 6.54

86, 4 Darrun Hilliard, Villanova, SG+0.29, 6.44

127, 3 Kris Dunn, Providence, PG+0.99, 5.81

133, 23 Daniel Ochefu, Villanova, C-0.3, 5.76

154, 3 Josh Hart, Villanova, PF-0.03, 5.56

163, 2 Brandon Mobley, Seton Hall, PF-0.03, 5.42

175, 31 Kameron Woods, Butler, C-0.3, 5.3

184, 24 Kellen Dunham, Butler, SF+0.13, 5.14

202, 5 Trevon Bluiett, Xavier, SF+0.13, 4.96

213, 13 Matt Carlino, Marquette, PG+0.99, 4.84

226, 24 Joshua Smith, Georgetown, C-0.3, 4.74

251, 31 Dylan Ennis, Villanova, SF+0.13, 4.57

257, 12 Chris Obekpa, St. John's, C-0.3, 4.53

259, 3 Alex Barlow, Butler, SG+0.29, 4.5

307, 11 Dee Davis, Xavier, PG+0.99, 4.18

311, 31 Angel Delgado, Seton Hall, C-0.3, 4.16

340, 15 Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova, PG+0.99, 4

345, 10 Juan Anderson, Marquette, PF-0.03, 3.97

350, 2 Kris Jenkins, Villanova, SF+0.13, 3.95

362, 33 Carson Desrosiers, Providence, C-0.3, 3.9

371, 22 JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova, PF-0.03, 3.86

403, 55 Jabril Trawick, Georgetown, SF+0.13, 3.72

416, 20 Desi Rodriguez, Seton Hall, PF-0.03, 3.62

417, 1 Austin Chatman, Creighton, PG+0.99, 3.61

462, 5 Billy Garrett, DePaul, SG+0.29, 3.38

496, 21 Isaiah Zierden, Creighton, SG+0.29, 3.26

509, 10 Remy Abell, Xavier, SG+0.29, 3.19

521, 1 Jalen Reynolds, Xavier, C-0.3, 3.13

527, 25 Durrell McDonald, DePaul, PG+0.99, 3.1

546, 25 Tyler Harris, Providence, PF-0.03, 3.02

Stong bench player, serviceable starters (3.0 or better):

579, 15 Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall, PG+0.99, 2.93

596, 15 Myles Davis, Xavier, SG+0.29, 2.89

629, 23 Aaron Bowen, Georgetown, PF-0.03, 2.78

651, 1 Duane Wilson, Marquette, SF+0.13, 2.72

659, 0 Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall, PG+0.99, 2.7

662, 23 Rysheed Jordan, St. John's, PG+0.99, 2.68

672, 40 Luke Fischer, Marquette, C-0.3, 2.64

690, 12 Derrick Wilson, Marquette, PG+0.99, 2.61

696, 13 Paul White, Georgetown, SF+0.13, 2.59

703, 21 Jamee Crockett, DePaul, SF+0.13, 2.58

720, 11 Forrest Robinson, DePaul, PF-0.03, 2.52

822, 4 Myke Henry, DePaul, PF-0.03, 2.31

836, 3 Mikael Hopkins, Georgetown, C-0.3, 2.28

861, 0 L.J. Peak, Georgetown, SG+0.29, 2.2

863, 23 JaJuan Johnson, Marquette, SF+0.13, 2.19

897, 21 Roosevelt Jones, Butler, PG+0.99, 2.13

913, 5 Phil Booth, Villanova, SG+0.29, 2.1

916, 31 Will Artino, Creighton, C-0.3, 2.1

933, 5 Sandy Cohen, Marquette, SF+0.13, 2.05

944, 0 Jamal Branch, St. John's, SG+0.29, 2.03

978, 32 Toby Hegner, Creighton, PF-0.03, 1.96

1003, 55 J.P. Macura, Xavier, SF+0.13, 1.92

1061, 45 Andrew Chrabascz, Butler, PF-0.03, 1.82

1102, 25 Steve Taylor, Marquette, C-0.3, 1.74

1204, 3 Brandon Randolph, Xavier, PG+0.99, 1.6

1237, 24 Kyron Cartwright, Providence, PG+0.99, 1.56

1263, 13 Paschal Chukwu, Providence, C-0.3, 1.54

1292, 2 James Farr, Xavier, C-0.3, 1.49

1303, 1 Tre Campbell, Georgetown, SG+0.29, 1.48

1316, 30 Jaren Sina, Seton Hall, SF+0.13, 1.47

1406, 0 Austin Etherington, Butler, SF+0.13, 1.37

1422, 2 Tommy Hamilton, DePaul, C-0.3, 1.35

1723, 5 Devin Brooks, Creighton, SF+0.13, 1.07

Small Value (improves team less than 1 point/game):

1902, 4 Tyler Wideman, Butler, C-0.3, 0.91

1935, 11 Isaac Copeland, Georgetown, PF-0.03, 0.87

2016, 21 Jalen Lindsey, Providence, SG+0.29, 0.78

2069, 30 Deonte Burton, Marquette, PF-0.03, 0.73

2071, 1 Phil Greene, St. John's, SG+0.29, 0.73

2104, 41 Geoffrey Groselle, Creighton, C-0.3, 0.7

2128, 14 Darryl Reynolds, Villanova, C-0.3, 0.68

2141, 22 Ted Bancroft, Providence, PF-0.03, 0.67

2280, 30 Kelan Martin, Butler, PF-0.03, 0.55

2302, 45 Stephane Manga, Seton Hall, SF+0.13, 0.53

2332, 40 Zach Hanson, Creighton, C-0.3, 0.51

2400, 32 Junior Lomomba, Providence, SG+0.29, 0.46

2407, 13 Jackson Davis, Butler, PF-0.03, 0.45

2467, 11 Jackson Aldridge, Butler, SG+0.29, 0.42

2524, 23 James Milliken, Creighton, SF+0.13, 0.38

2548, 14 Ismael Sanogo, Seton Hall, C-0.3, 0.37

2565, 25 Rashed Anthony, Seton Hall, C-0.3, 0.36

2576, 0 Larry Austin, Xavier, SG+0.29, 0.36

2616, 12 David Allen, Georgetown, SG+0.29, 0.33

2666, 4 Edmond Sumner, Xavier, SG+0.29, 0.31

2707, 54 Sean O'Mara, Xavier, C-0.3, 0.28

2732, 24 Felix Balamou, St. John's, SF+0.13, 0.26

2746, 13 Haralds Karlis, Seton Hall, SF+0.13, 0.26

2847, 22 Avery Dingman, Creighton, SF+0.13, 0.19

2922, 14 Amar Alibegovic, St. John's, SF+0.13, 0.14

2923, 0 Leon Gilmore, Creighton, SF+0.13, 0.14

2926, 20 Patrick Farrell, Villanova, SF+0.13, 0.14

2940, 2 Myles Stewart, St. John's, PF-0.03, 0.13

2961, 4 Christian Jones, St. John's, PF-0.03, 0.1

3003, 15 Ricky Kreklow, Creighton, PF-0.03, 0.06

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

ESPN's BPI Rating Suggests Marquette 55th Best Team

BPI, the master rating designed by ESPN's Dean Oliver to measure how good a team is when all key players are healthy, indicates Marquette is the 55th best team in the country with a 75.03 rating since Luke Fischer arrived. In games prior to Fischer's eligibility the team averaged a 64.24 - making them the 100th best team in the country.

That would seem to give Fischer even more value than his per game Value Add of 8.07 per game through his early games at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

ESPN's promotion of the system could be helpful in Marquette getting a bid if they play well enough to get on the bubble. Marquette's rating is 68.9 right now - good for just 76th place - but MU stands to get a nice jump after two more games.

In studying the system, it gives greater weight to games in which both teams have all five of their leading players suited up. The quirk is the system only "sees" a key player as one of the top five in minutes per game OF THOSE WHO HAVE PLAYED IN AT LEAST HALF of the games.

Fischer has only been eligible for 6 of 14 games so right now MU gets no extra credit for having played a lot better with him on the court. After next week's Creighton game - making it 8 of 16 games. At that point the system basically recalculates those six games, the Georgetown and Creighton results and all future games moving forward as the "true" Marquette team and the pre-Fischer squad as weighted less.

You can follow Marquette's BPI rating by clicking on ESPN's Marquette BPI page here.

Here are Marquette's BPI Ratings per game since Fischer Arrived.

Sat, Jan 3ProvidenceW 75-6693.4
Tue, Dec 16Arizona StateW 78-7188.8
Sun, Dec 28Morgan StateW 81-5376.1
Fri, Dec 19Alabama A&MW 83-4974.9
Mon, Dec 22North DakotaW 67-5472.9
Wed, Dec 31DePaulL 61-5844.1

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Terrible way to end 2014 and a great way to start 2015

There is no sugar coating it, that was a dumpster fire in Rosemont against DePaul to end 2014. As painful as it is we reviewed the game and try and figure out what went wrong. Then we transition to the more positive result in the Providence win. We talk back court for Marquette and whether Duane Wilson is in a slump or ran into a wall. We then heap some well earned praise on Juan Anderson. Lastly we talk the up coming road game against Georgetown and what it's going to take to win. Enjoy and Happy New Year! Download this episode (right click and save)