"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, June 18, 2017

No NBA-ready Players Yet, but 3 MU Players stayed after being NBA-ready

Sam Hauser and Markus Howard both project to be worth 5.00-5.99 runs to Marquette this year. The good news is that is in that nice spot for college fans where it is an elite level but not enough to start the "they will not consider leaving early for the NBA are they?" Not that there is an NBA talk about these two great rising sophmores, but having just finished crunching the numbers they are about two points short of where a player needs to get to have a better than 50/50 chance of making the NBA.

I crunched the numbers for 20,767 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, and found the Value Add at which a player has better than a 50/50 chance to make the NBA is 7.60. Here is the breakdown of a player's chance of making the NBA once they hit a certain range:

Best Value Add     Players   Made NBA% made it
0 to 0.9910,640100.1%
1 to 1.994142200.5%
2 to 2.992010311.5%
3 to 3.991353483.5%
4 to 4.9998210010.2%
5 to 5.9966412919.4%
6 to 6.9942812429.0%
7 to 7.9926812446.3%
8 to 8.9915711673.9%
9 or higher12310787.0%
All Players20,7678093.9%

When you dig deeper, freshmen can come in above 6.00 and be one-and-dones because NBA clubs know they have more upside at their young age.

Certainly several Marquette players made the NBA without ever hitting the 7.60 mark, and there are many other factors I cover in this study. However, the four players who have exceeded that mark at Marquette all made it and three of the four actually could have made the NBA a year earlier.

Jae Crowder's junior season he was still about a point short of NBA-level with a 6.54 Value Add. He easily passed the mark his final season at 12.43.

However, Dwyane Wade (11.59), Travis Diener (10.32) and Jimmy Butler (8.96) were all well beyond the Value Add that indicates a player is ready for the NBA in the year BEFORE they actually left.

The fact that I had Butler ranked well ahead of the great Lazar Hayward in Butler's JUNIOR year was was first compelled the Chicago Bulls to call and meet about Value Add, but how wonderful he was already adding his senior season in which he went  into UConn and beat Kemba Walker!

Fresh Run Gives MU 3 of Top 18 Big East Players; Ranks All Since 2001-02 Season

We did a pretty massive update of www.valueaddbasketball.com that entailed rating all players going back to 2001-02, but also fine tuning the projection adjustments for how much players should improve between seasons, and if they get on NBA prospect lists. If you are into the actual calculations, I have other links below this list, but for those of you who just want a quick look at where our players rank against the best of the Big East - here are the projected conference leaders.

Please don't hesitate to make any corrections. Tracking thousands of players through transfers, NBA declarations and returns to college etc., this was a massive run. We also ran over 61,000 players seasons, so correct away by calling me at 404.606.3163 or emailing pudnerjohn@gmail.com with any corrections. Here is the best of the Big East based on projections:

NatlBig East PlayerTeamValue Add
11Jalen Brunson 1Villanova9.16
15Mikal Bridges 25Villanova8.78
25Khyri Thomas 2Creighton8.21
27Trevon Bluiett 5Xavier8.17
28Shamorie Ponds 2St. John's8.13
44JP Macura 55Xavier7.38
67Khadeen Carrington 0Seton Hall6.9
78Angel DelgadoSeton Hall6.77
101Jalen Lindsey 21Providence6.49
108Emmitt Holt 15Providence6.35
109Kelan Martin 30Butler6.34
148Desi Rodriguez 20Seton Hall5.85
156Andrew Rowsey 30Marquette5.8
161Kamar Baldwin 3Butler5.75
162Rodney Bullock 5Providence5.75
189Donte DiVincenzo 10Villanova5.47
194Sam Hauser 10Marquette5.43
200Markus Howard 0Marquette5.36
228Marcus LoVett 15St. John's5.17
234Kyron Cartwright 24Providence5.13

After our massive update, the website now includes the projections for 3,291 players for the 2017-18 season (click here and type 2018 for year, or type 2019 to look at the 313 players who will next play in 2018-19). It also includes a total of 61,019 past player seasons (click here for all of those seasons going back to 2001-02, then search notes for "nba" to limit to only the 2,195 played by players who went onto the NBA).

If you are curious about how we project player values or likelihood of NBA stardom, you can check any of the following posts:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning 
Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked 
Value Add Group 4: Top 
JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011
Value Add Group 5: 
NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft

Now I would challenge everyone to look at the blind test of Pomeroy stats of two All-American players and tell me which is better:

ORtg   eFG%OR%  DR%  ARate  TORate Blk%Stl%FT2-Pt3-PtTeam Defense  52%  32%101st


I believe most would agree that the second player was better statistically. Pomeroy says the 2nd player gets his team about seven points more per 100 possessions, so statistically he is a better offensive player. Defense is tougher in a blind test, but the bottom player was part of a much better defense (the 14th best in the country compared to a very mediocre 101st best), and the second player is better at steals and defensive rebounds, while the first is better at blocked shots. 

Let me add that the second player faced much tougher competition up until the NCAA tournament.

I go through all this to avoid the pain of the next graph. Yes, the bottom line is Jae Crowder's final season and statistically he was slightly better than Dwyane Wade, the top line. I wanted to show these stats before listing Marquette's all-time Value Add leaders below because Crowder has a slight edge after all the fine tuning as we ran through the 60,000+ seasons.

It doesn't mean I would rank him higher subjectively. When I wrote The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette Basketball, I ranked Wade first and I still would based on his tournament run to the Final Four, what he has done in the NBA etc. But from a pure statistical perspective over the entire season Crowder was slightly more valuable. If I updated the book today, I would nudge Crowder ahead of the great Bo Ellis as the No. 2 player.

Wade beating two of the top three teams in the country to take Marquette to the Final Four gets him the No. 1 all-time nod subjectively, but statistically over the course of the season Crowder was slightly better at the college level and that is reflected in the all-time Value Add ratings in which they both made Marquette about 12 points better per game than if they were replaced by a mediocre replacement player. 

With all that defense in place, the 2018 projections give three current Marquette players a spot among the Top 30 players to play at Marquette since Wade's two seasons. Click here for all 61,019 player seasons, and which 2,195 made the NBA.

RnkPlayerVA Pts/GameYearConfHtClass
1Jae Crowder12.432012BE6'64 Sr
2Dwyane Wade11.592003CUSA   6'42 So
3Travis Diener10.322004    BE6'13 Jr
4Travis Diener9.742005BE6'14 Sr
5Jimmy Butler8.962010BE6'63 Jr
6Dwyane Wade8.532002CUSA6'41 Fr
7Steve Novak8.272006BE6'104 Sr
8Lazar Hayward7.462010BE6'64 Sr
9Jimmy Butler7.152011BE6'74 Sr
10Wesley Matthews6.852009BE6'54 Sr
11Davante Gardner6.72013BE6'83 Jr
12Jae Crowder6.542011BE6'63 Jr
13Travis Diener6.42003CUSA6'12 So
14Robert Jackson6.322003CUSA6'10   4 Sr
15Dominic James6.312006BE5'111 Fr
16Cordell Henry6.272002CUSA5'104 Sr
17Jerel McNeal6.262009BE6'34 Sr
18Jerel McNeal6.212008BE6'33 Jr
19Dominic James6.112008BE5'113 Jr
20Lazar Hayward6.112009BE6'63 Jr
21Darius Johnson-Odom5.882012BE6'24 Sr
22Maurice Acker5.842010BE5'84 Sr
23Andrew Rowsey 305.82018BE5'104 Sr
24Travis Diener5.72002CUSA6'11 Fr
25Lazar Hayward5.622008BE6'62 So
26Matt Carlino 135.62015BE6'24 Sr
27Luke Fischer 405.52017BE6'114 Sr
28Davante Gardner5.462014BE6'84 Sr
29Sam Hauser 105.432018BE6'62 So
30Markus Howard 05.362018BE5'112 So
31Steve Novak5.082005BE6'103 Jr
32Dominic James4.852007BE5'112 So
33Andrew Rowsey 304.82017BE5'103 Jr
34Henry Ellenson 134.82016BE6'111 Fr
35Jamil Wilson4.592013BE6'73 Jr
36Wesley Matthews4.442007BE6'52 So
37Sam Hauser 104.432017BE6'61 Fr
38Scott Merritt4.422003CUSA6'103 Jr
39Wesley Matthews4.412008BE6'53 Jr
40Vander Blue4.42013BE6'43 Jr
41Markus Howard 04.362017BE5'111 Fr
42Luke Fischer 404.362016BE6'113 Jr
43Dominic James4.122009BE5'114 Sr
44JaJuan Johnson 234.12017BE6'54 Sr
45Joe Chapman4.12006BE6'71 Fr
46Jerel McNeal3.972007BE6'32 So
47Davante Gardner3.962012BE6'82 So
48David Cubillan3.92007BE6'11 Fr
49Darius Johnson-Odom3.882011BE6'23 Jr
50Steve Novak3.872004BE6'102 So