"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Fox Sports 1 Big East Previews All 5 Games: top 99 players with all eight key stats for each

Fox Sports 1 tips off momentarily. We have run the www.valueaddbasketball.com numbers just for Big East players (the database will have the numbers prior to Christmas. In addition to ranking the players based on their Value Add per game (which shows Luke Fischer as the second most valuable player in the conference to date), we provide the eight biggest factors the ratings for each player (shooting, offensive and defensive rebounding, assists, turnovers, blocked shots, steals and fouls drawn). Players with a Value Add of 0.00 are not included - exactly 99 have brought some value to their team.

If any of you have not subscribed to www.kenpom.com you of course need to do it TODAY.

11 a.m. - St. John's favored by 2 1/2 over Seton Hall - You hate to be missing your point guard against St. John's pressure (Isaiah Whitehead, ranked 32nd). St. John's #15 Sir'Dominic Pointer comes into conference play ranked No. 1 in Value Add per game - worth almost nine points a game. Seton Hall's Sterling Gibbs actually shot up briefly to No. 1 in the nation after a 40-point outing against a pretty good Illinois State team, but he has not scored 20 in any game since then.

1:30 p.m. - Butler 11 point underdog at Villanova - Butler has been the sweetest surprise of the Big East early start, but Nova looks so tough with three of the top nine players in the conference and nine players in the top 30.

4 p.m. - Marquette 4 1/2 point favorite at DePaul - In Luke Fischer's four games he has been worth more than eight points a game to Marquette (8.07 Value Add per game) making him the second most valuable player in the conference. Meanwhile DePaul has really fallen off as the one weak team in the conference with no players in the top 40 in the conference. Still, DePaul won on this floor against Stanford. Matt Carlino ranks 14th and Juan Anderson 23rd, and Duane Wilson has become the additional offensive threat in rising up to 38th.

6:30 p.m. - Creighton 5-point underdog at Providence - Creighton pulled the great upset over Oklahoma early, but really looks like they need a year to reload. Providence incredible Top 10 duo of Kris Dunn (6th) and LaDontae Henton (10th) looked shell-shocked for a couple of games after the Kentucky loss, but other than that this tema looks like a contender.

9 p.m. - Georgetown 5 1/2 point underdog at Xavier - Georgetown capped the incredible non-conference season for the Big East with the comeback win over Indiana. Georgetown's #4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera has been a Value Add favorite, ranking in the top 10% in 2013 and top 2% of all players the two years since, including ranking 3rd in the Big East.The player right behind him at 4th in the rankings is Xavier's #40 Matt Stainbrook, who was top 5% of all players last year and is even better - and a floor general even from the front court.

15 Sir'Dominic Pointer1St. John'sPF6' 6"8.791158.84.419.522.
40 Luke Fischer2MarquetteC6' 11"8.07483.98.325.816.912.212.704.3
4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera3GeorgetownPG6' 3"7.801147.22.912.923.511.302.85
40 Matt Stainbrook4XavierPF6' 10"6.681266.110.523.415.5143.51.75.4
3 Josh Hart5VillanovaPF6' 5"6.581266.79.414.613.516.
3 Kris Dunn6ProvidencePG6' 3"6.551250.8415.849.
11 D'Angelo Harrison7St. John'sSF6' 4"6.2611503.612.711.
4 Sterling Gibbs8Seton HallSG6' 2"6.121259.41.93.624.41602.64.9
4 Darrun Hilliard9VillanovaSG6' 6"6.081150.929.9158.
23 LaDontae Henton10ProvidenceSF6' 6"5.171353.74.913.18.1130.83.14.7
31 Kameron Woods11ButlerC6' 9"4.971350.712.624.19.91742.93.7
2 Brandon Mobley12Seton HallPF6' 9"4.771254.44.418.
5 Trevon Bluiett13XavierSF6' 6"4.751257.27.212.413.712.
13 Matt Carlino14MarquettePG6' 2"4.731253.50.711.
1 Austin Chatman15CreightonPG6' 04.601348.62.812.330.312.200.64.5
23 Daniel Ochefu16VillanovaC6' 11"4.571263.413.125.410.825.86.61.74
31 Dylan Ennis17VillanovaSF6' 2"4.561257.55.811.221.315.
24 Kellen Dunham18ButlerSF6' 6"4.4013573.
21 Isaiah Zierden19CreightonSG6' 2"4.341361.10.98.311.
24 Joshua Smith20GeorgetownC6' 10"4.251163.615.618.711.423.
12 Chris Obekpa21St. John'sC6' 10"4.161146.210.319.81.713.713.71.63.9
11 Dee Davis22XavierPG6' 03.631249.50.86.631.822.903.93.4
10 Juan Anderson23MarquettePF6' 6"3.621258.59.916.81821.
23 Rysheed Jordan24St. John'sPG6' 4"3.491048.
23 Aaron Bowen25GeorgetownPF6' 6"3.4011729.66.514.921.31.83.84
20 Desi Rodriguez26Seton HallPF6' 6"3.381257.
2 Kris Jenkins27VillanovaSF6' 6"3.3212602.77.75.711.
22 JayVaughn Pinkston28VillanovaPF6' 7"3.271241.39.518.99.920.
33 Carson Desrosiers29ProvidenceC7' 03.241350.79.514.56.216.512.81.54.1
55 Jabril Trawick30GeorgetownSF6' 5"3.181165.54.71619.
3 Alex Barlow31ButlerSG5' 11"3.151346.80.81112.
15 Isaiah Whitehead32Seton HallPG6' 4"3.151146.23.314.62824.
15 Ryan Arcidiacono33VillanovaPG6' 3"3.121236.31.85.722.112.303.23.7
1 Jalen Reynolds34XavierC6' 10"3.091264.712.625.13.814.
25 Tyler Harris35ProvidencePF6' 9"3.081348.35.213.810.
10 Remy Abell36XavierSG6' 4"3.061264.326.114.811.
31 Angel Delgado37Seton HallC6' 9"3.031260.617.223.25.820.16.514.9
1 Duane Wilson38MarquetteSF6' 2"2.761246.628.216.714.
21 Roosevelt Jones39ButlerPG6' 4"2.711343.87.812.326.
13 Paul White40GeorgetownSF6' 8"2.671157.
25 Steven Bennett41ButlerPG6' 2"2.65537.
25 Durrell McDonald42DePaulPG6' 2"2.521353.22.413.119.425.
15 Myles Davis43XavierSG6' 2"2.4311611.59.813.618.601.13.5
0 Khadeen Carrington44Seton HallPG6' 3"2.311244.93.810.913.319.
5 Phil Booth45VillanovaSG6' 3"2.251278.62.59.314.320.
21 Jamee Crockett46DePaulSF6' 4"2.181357.966.29.315.
45 Andrew Chrabascz47ButlerPF6' 7"2.0713536.310.913.
0 Jamal Branch48St. John'sSG6' 3"2.071156.138.11920.7022.4
4 Myke Henry49DePaulPF6' 6"2.071355.510.
0 Henry Lowe50VillanovaPG5' 11"2.04600911.60001
5 Billy Garrett51DePaulSG6' 6"2.041345.50.77.922.819.
12 Derrick Wilson52MarquettePG6' 1"2.021244.
3 Mikael Hopkins53GeorgetownC6' 9"1.981139.112.917.910.9299.62.43.5
31 Will Artino54CreightonC6' 11"1.951353.513.220.93.414.23.22.85
11 Tyler Clement55CreightonPG6' 1"1.89742.909.319.624.601.22.4
55 J.P. Macura56XavierSF6' 5"1.811155.34.810.39.721.
23 JaJuan Johnson57MarquetteSF6' 5"1.771251.10.910.817.619.
11 Forrest Robinson58DePaulPF6' 10"1.641354.64.815.74.5123.91.52.4
3 Brandon Randolph59XavierPG6' 2"1.551251.42.210.521.322.
32 Toby Hegner60CreightonPF6' 10"1.521355.
0 L.J. Peak61GeorgetownSG6' 5"1.511145.
5 Sandy Cohen62MarquetteSF6' 6"1.511260.61.913.
1 Phil Greene63St. John'sSG6' 2"1.441142.119.399.
24 Kyron Cartwright64ProvidencePG5' 11"1.421336.21.69.929.2290.72.91.9
2 Tommy Hamilton65DePaulC6' 11"1.401354.56.320.510.
2 James Farr66XavierC6' 10"1.361241.114.627.35.623.1722.4
13 Jackson Davis67ButlerPF6' 8"1.305258.950.6016.
21 Jalen Lindsey68ProvidenceSG6' 7"1.221259.316.
30 Kelan Martin69ButlerPF6' 6"1.201349.66.613.6613.
30 Jaren Sina70Seton HallSF6' 2"1.1912503.46.314.520.1012.5
11 Isaac Copeland71GeorgetownPF6' 9"1.191151.
0 Austin Etherington72ButlerSF6' 6"1.191351.53.514.36.721.503.32.1
22 Ted Bancroft73ProvidencePF6' 6"1.189855.7249.
4 Tyler Wideman74ButlerC6' 8"1.121354.58.422.27.819.46.926.2
41 Geoffrey Groselle75CreightonC7' 01.061270.
1 Tre Campbell76GeorgetownSG6' 2"1.0511323.18.612.312.204.52.4
25 Steve Taylor77MarquetteC6' 7"1.021247.910.214.76.2110.71.42.9
30 Deonte Burton78MarquettePF6' 4"0.94852.855.
5 Devin Brooks79CreightonSF6' 2"0.861337.97.317.928.3240.42.74.2
14 Darryl Reynolds80VillanovaC6' 8"0.851171.41018.
13 Paschal Chukwu81ProvidenceC8' 2"0.771358.312.415.93.720.
12 David Allen82GeorgetownSG6' 2"0.755000048.704.72.8
4 Edmond Sumner83XavierSG6' 5"0.606206.58.62230.102.95.2
11 Jackson Aldridge84ButlerSG6' 00.56859.100017.601.22.9
14 Ismael Sanogo85Seton HallC6' 7"0.56928.
40 Zach Hanson86CreightonC6' 9"0.551361.49.516.63.624.
0 Larry Austin87XavierSG6' 2"0.528100010.24.657.103.42.5
45 Stephane Manga88Seton HallSF6' 6"0.49954.53.810.64.531.32.22.63
4 Christian Jones89St. John'sPF6' 7"0.481062.58.614.809.800.92.4
54 Sean O'Mara90XavierC6' 10"0.4297513.47.965.61.917.3
32 Junior Lomomba91ProvidenceSG6' 5"0.361254.
23 James Milliken92CreightonSF6' 2"0.3411520.615.612.416.600.32.9
1 Darrick Wood93DePaulSG6' 5"0.331247.24101523.201.83.1
15 Aaron Simpson94DePaulSG5' 11"0.3013492.510.212.426.302.32.4
24 Felix Balamou95St. John'sSF6' 4"0.28833.310.77.72.838.902.83.1
52 Kevin Rafferty96VillanovaPF6' 8"0.166100021.400000.9
2 Myles Stewart97St. John'sPF6' 5"0.041040.
22 Avery Dingman98CreightonSF6' 6"0.02851.92.414.714.
5 Reggie Cameron99GeorgetownSF6' 7"0.01947.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

The Big East season is upon us

Most of the holiday feasting is over for you, and it is for Marquette basketball. The heart of the basketball season, conference play, starts up on New Year's Eve. In this Scrambled Eggs episode, we start by looking back at non-conference season and each finding a reason for optimism in the conference season and a reason for concern. We then transition to the conference season and what it looks like. We don't go game by game but we look at some critical match-ups and what a possible record looks like. We also can't help ourselves and have to have a little tournament discussion. Lastly, we give a huge shout out to Jimmy Butler who is absolutely doing work in the NBA. Happy New Year and Happy Conference Season. Download this episode (right click and save)

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

My Gift Being in ESPN the Mag; Best Gift in Basketball - MU Receiving Fischer

Merry Christmas to all. I had a great gift Christmas Eve when I opened ESPN the Mag to see myself quoted and a graphic produced to show Value Add. However, as I write in an upcoming piece on Breitbart Sports, the best basketball gift this year came to Marquette. My amazement over just how good Luke Fischer has been led me to bounce all of Jeff Goodman's transfer list against the www.valueaddbasketball.com database to see how many other midseason transfers have had the big initial impact on their teams.

"The metric, developed by stats pro John Pudner, assesses how many wins a player contributes to his team over that of a theoretical replacement player, similar to baseball's WAR. If Wright keeps it up, "he'd be one of the greatest college players ever," John Pudner, ESPN the Magazine, December 22, 2014 - page 26

The answer is only one comes close - Jesse Morgan has been almost as good in his two games for Temple including their destruction of Kansas - and there are only five total that project to add more than a point to their team's average score. Luke projects to be the 59th best player in the country at this pace, and more importantly make Marquette the 50th best team which would give us a shot. The top 5 midseason transfers are below (Luke projects to be worth 7.06 points on our average score).

Midseason TransferTeamHtDatabaseProjectionsProj Rnk
40 Fischer, LukeMarquette6' 11"1.927.0659
3 Morgan, JesseTemple6'5"1.006.00111
11 Goodman, SavonArizona St.6' 6"1.275.08184
0 Russell, DeWayneGrand Canyon5' 11"1.213.62388
10 Worsham, RaefordJackson St.6' 4"1.042.70628

BTW, if Georgetown beats Indiana Saturday, the Big East should be ranked 3rd at www.kenpom.com since we trail the Big Ten .7909 to .7908 right now.

In this season of hope, will hope the real gift comes in March. But for now Merry Christmas!

Monday, December 22, 2014

9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid

It looks to me like MU gets an NCAA bid with a 9-9 or better mark. That would likely entail MU being one of only about 33 teams with four wins over teams in the RPI top 50, likely finish in the top 25 in Strength of Schedule, and get credit for being a better team with Luke Fischer than the early season 4-4 without him. The out-of-conference wins away from home against Georgia Tech (top 100) and Tennessee are decent on the resume as well.

RPI Forecast gives Marquette only a 17% chance of doing that, but that is based on results so far which included eight of 10 games without Luke Fischer.

According to RPI Forecast, Marquette is one of 49 teams projected to have three wins over teams that finish in the Top 50, which would put them right on the bubble of the top 47 or so that get into the tournament. The table below lists the contenders for bids based on how many Top 50 wins they are expected to have, and then how many chances they are expected to have. This ranks MU as 49th because of the teams with 3 Top 50 wins they would have been the one with the most chances (13) so I would put us in last of the 3-team wins. I included teams projected to have at least two wins over top 50 teams and/or to be projected to finish in the RPI Top 70.

If that played out, it would leave Marquette with a 15-15 mark, 7-11 in conference and a 96 RPI – so not enough to get a bid. By my math, Marquette gets in with a 9-9 conference (assuming no slipups in these last two games).

Obviously other games can affect this. Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown need to stay in the Top 50, and it would be nice if Providence beat Miami to have a shot to finish there. Despite a tough weekend (Seton Hall blown out at Georgia, Xavier being upset by Auburn and Butler losing to Indiana), the Big East is projected to finish 2nd in RPI and have six teams in the top 50 (the projections basically assume one of the six does not end up there and Marquette goes 3-7 against the five that do).

Here is the ranking of NCAA teams based on projected wins over Top 50 teams (tie-breaker who had the fewest chances):

1. Kentucky (SEC) 10 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 1

2. Texas (B12) 10 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 4

3. Kansas (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 5

4. Baylor (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 9

5. Duke (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 2

6. Wisconsin (B10) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 3

7. Louisville (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 7

8. Virginia (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 6

9. Villanova (BE) 7 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 14

10. North Carolina (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 8

11. West Virginia (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 16

12. Iowa St. (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 25

13. Utah (P12) 6 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 11

14. Butler (BE) 6 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 28

15. Oklahoma St. (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 23

16. Oklahoma (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 18

17. TCU (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 54

18. Arizona (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 13

19. Washington (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 24

20. Xavier (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 21

21. St. John's (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 34

22. Indiana (B10) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 50

23. Georgetown (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 39

24. Ohio St. (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 12

25. Notre Dame (ACC) 4 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 42

26. South Carolina (SEC) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 31

27. Purdue (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 73

28. Seton Hall (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 29

29. Providence (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 55

30. Creighton (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 114

31. Iowa (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 52

32. Texas Tech (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 84

33. Kansas St. (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 17 chances. RPI 117

34. Gonzaga (WCC) 3 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 10

35. Wichita St. (MVC) 3 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 17

36. San Diego St. (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 27

37. Arkansas (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 35

38. Wyoming (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 68

39. VCU (A10) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 15

40. LSU (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 60

41. Michigan St. (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 32

42. Miami FL (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 37

43. Minnesota (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 36

44. California (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 40

45. Maryland (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 41

46. Georgia (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 48

47. Stanford (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 62

48. North Carolina St. (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 43

49. Marquette (BE) 3 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 96

50. Colorado St. (MWC) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 26

51. Old Dominion (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 38

52. SMU (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 20

53. Northern Iowa (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 19

54. Rhode Island (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 53

55. UTEP (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 66

56. Evansville (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 69

57. St. Bonaventure (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 97

58. Davidson (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 22

59. Cincinnati (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 58

60. George Washington (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 70

61. Illinois St. (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 79

62. Auburn (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 167

63. Florida (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 30

64. Mississippi (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 99

65. Illinois (B10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 51

66. Colorado (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 59

67. Richmond (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 72

68. Oregon (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 106

69. Oregon St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 124

70. Georgia Tech (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 76

71. Long Beach St. (BW) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 82

72. Arizona St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 122

73. Syracuse (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 64

74. Pittsburgh (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 115

75. UCLA (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 78

76. DePaul (BE) 2 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 193

77. Green Bay (Horz) 1 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 46

78. Georgia St. (SB) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 56

79. Wofford (SC) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 57

80. Dayton (A10) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 61

81. Boise St. (MWC) 1 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 44

82. Texas A&M (SEC) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 65

83. Connecticut (Amer) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 67

84. Harvard (Ivy) 0 wins over top 50 in 1 chances. RPI 47

85. Buffalo (MAC) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 33

86. Eastern Washington (BSky) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 49

87. Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 0 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 63

88. BYU (WCC) 0 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 45

Friday, December 19, 2014

Marquette got a shiny, new toy for Christmas...Luke Fischer

Well to say the Luke Fischer era at Marquette got off to a fast start would be the least earth shattering news of this week. We jump right into the Luke story line and discuss our first impressions, what we liked, and what this might mean for this Marquette team. Be warned, we are pretty enthusiastic for Luke's future. We talk about the ASU game overall and then transition into a brief conversation on last weeks less than awesome transfer news. With the transfers, that leaves 3 open scholarships. As anonymous internet podcasters, we had to tell Wojo what he should do with those scholarships. Lastly we talk a little bit of future for this team. Unless something catastrophic happens, this will be the last pod until right before BE opening. Merry Christmas to all the Marquette fans and enjoy your presents, especially Luke Fischer.

Download this episode (right click and save)

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Fischer Top 5 in NCAA in Shooting, Blocks, Defensive Rebounds and Team Defense

How good was Luke Fischer's first game for Marquette? Simple, based on tempo free stats he is clearly the Player of the Year in the Country.

Defense - Fischer is the top defensive player in the country based on tempo free stats:

Blocked Shots (3rd nationally) - Fischer blocked 17.7% of Arizona State's shots in his debut. That is the third best season total in the country.

Defensive Rebounding (5th) - Fischer grabbed 31.4% of all the shots Arizona State missed. That is the fifth best figure in the country - interestingly Cinmeon Bowers of Auburn is second in the country at 34.9%

Team Defensive Rating (5th) - Marquette's adjusted team defense against Arizona State was 87.5 points per 100 trips (94.7 point per 100 trips by a team that averages 107.1 normally in a season in which the average is 99.9). Even with the shut down defense in Fischer's one game, Marquette now has the 125th best defense in the country, so they were more well over 100 spots better on defense with him in the line-up. If we just count the game in which Fischer played, the top 10 defenses this season are; 1, Louisville; 2, Kentucky; 3, Virginia; 4, Texas; 5, MARQUETTE with FISCHER; 6, Oklahoma; 7, San Diego State; 8, Wisconsin; 9, Arizona; 10, St. John's. Obviously you share credit for team defense, but if they are 5th with you and worse than 125th without you, pretty safe to say you are the man.

This easily makes him the best defensive player in the country.


Shooting - On the most important stat, Fischer has hit 81.8% of his shots, making his effective Field Goal Range (eFG% adding extra half shot made for each three-pointer made) second in the country to Lafayette's Joey Ptasinski.

Offensive Rating (21st) - Sum up all the offensive stats at www.kenpom.com, and he calculates that Fischer would produce 136.2 points per 100 times he had the ball, which ties him with Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos for 21st best offensive player in the country when he has the ball.

OK, seriously even though these are all figures from www.kenpom.com, he does not actually have the minutes played to qualify to be a leader in any category, but based just one his one game he would clearly be the National Player of the Year as the best defensive player in the country and 21st best offensive player. Obviously he will not keep up all of these numbers throughout the season, but if Marquette gets over half of what he produced against Arizona State this could be a tournament team after all. A long way to go through, and teams will certainly be watching a lot of film to make sure they position to stop his left hook ... and right hook ... and roll into a dunk ... and mid-range shot as the shot clock runs out.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Can Fischer stop MU opponents from scoring 73.2% of trips?

We covered the challenge Luke Fischer faces against Arizona State's front court in his first appearance. Not only does ASU have a duo at forward that can each put up 20/10 numbers, but MU without Fischer has been in the bottom 25 of all 351 teams in three categories - blocked shots (5.1%), 2-point attempts (55.8% allowed) and defensive rebounds (allowed 40.1% offensive rebounds). That means that in a possession in which MU does not force a turnover, and the opponent attempts only two-pointers, the opponent scores 73.2% of the time:

55.8% Score 1st shot

9.9% 1 offensive rebound, then score

4.4% 2nd offensive rebound, then score

1.9% 3rd offensive rebound, then score

0.9% 4th offensive rebound, then score

0.4% 5th offensive rebound, then score

73.2% Total % chance of scoring if no steal, foul, 3-point attempt

Pretty scary, but that is what Fischer is here to stop. Basically MU needs to get help from Fischer protecting the rim and clearing the boards, or if he is on the bench they made need to really gamble for the steal.This is a pretty big spotlight for his first trip back on the court since leaving Indiana a year ago.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Two ASU forwards coming off 20/10 appearances may force Fischer to play

I assume Wojo wants to ease Luke Fischer into action, but he may have to get him on the court to let Marquette play big against two Arizona State forwards who put in 20 points and 10 rebounds their last time on the court.

The following notes each player’s jersey number and Value Add rating (3.0 or higher at www.valueaddbasketball.com is a strong starter) in potential match-ups going from the “5” spot down to the “1” spot.

5 (center) – EDGE ASU – Luke Fischer (0.72 projected Value Add) may need to take the court against a very good 6-foot-11 center (ASU #21) Eric Jacobsen (4.40 actual Value Add). Certainly a tall task for Fischer, who may not be ready for a lot of minutes, but his presence may be needed due to the domino effect of needing Anderson and Taylor to match up with forwards who could destroy MU inside.

4 (power forward) – TOSS-UP - Steve Taylor (3.06) has done an excellent job at center and may be even better if he can slide over to power forward. So far he been much better than (ASU #40) Shaquielle McKissic (0.68 actual). However, McKissic was projected to be ASU’s best player, and unfortunately went back inside and dominated against Pepperdine last game for a 22 point, 11 rebound game that looked a lot more like his projected Value Add for 5.69 this year.

3 (small forward/swing) – TOSS-UP. Likewise, Juan Anderson (5.36) has been awesome, and (ASU #11) Savon Goodman has not even played. However, Goodman was projected to be a lot better than Anderson before the year (4.46 to 1.30), but like Fischer had to sit out first semester after transferring from UNLV. He is the one ASU player who should end up in the NBA, and the last record we have from the court was during the 40 minute ASU scrimmage that he dominated with 28 points and 10 rebounds. This will be a true chance for Anderson to prove how far he has come this year – but it will not be easy.

2 (shooting guard) – SLIGHT EDGE MU. We thought last year that MU was a tournament team if Duane Wilson (3.34) had not gone down, and he is taking it to another level with a 30-point outing. Senior (ASU #33) Bo Barnes (3.10) has been only slightly behind Wilson’s mark, but with Wilson ascending MU seems to have a slight edge.

1 (point guard) – HUGE EDGE MU. The good news is that if MU can just hold their own on the front line, Matt Carlino (5.98) has the chance to dominate at point guard (ASU #3) Chance Murray (1.78). Carlino is inconsistent, but even on one of his bad nights he should have the edge on Murray, and if he is either scoring or setting up others with assists, MU has a huge edge at the point.

Of course, Derrick Wilson and Sandy Cohen could start for defense, and JaJuan Johnson (2.69) rates almost as strong as a good major conference starter off the bench so can provide the offensive spark either as a starter or off the bench. However, overall MU with only an 8-man rotation will give up depth to ASU and most opponents. ASU has bench players that contribute nice Value Add points with ASU #4 Gerry Blakes 1.52, ASU #1 Roosevelt Scott 2.07 and ASU #31 Jonathan Gilling 2.35.

Marquette is a one-point favorite at www.kenpom.com, but if you add Goodman’s 4.46 projected Value Add vs. Fischer’s 0.72, that makes ASU a 3-point favorite. MU needs a win Tuesday and then three easy wins to go to 8-4 entering conference play – where MU is favored in only three of 18 games right now at www.kenpom.com. We will learn a lot about MU with Fischer and the rest of the season Tuesday night.

Friday, December 12, 2014

Carlino 12th MU Player in Top 100? MU one of 15 that can put 5 strong starters on floor? Bid possible?

In putting together the early www.valueaddbasketball.com All-Big East team for Breitbart Sports, I started to believe the ingredients might be there for a 2010-like shocking run to an NCAA bid. Even before the huge defensive upgrade from Deonte Burton to Luke Fischer next game, Marquette is the only Big East team besides Villanova to have five of the top 32 players in the conference.

Matt Carlino is on pace to be the 2nd team all-Big East point guard and the 12th Marquette player to finish in the Top 100 at www.valueaddbasketball.com, and Juan Anderson isn’t far behind as the 3rd team All-Big East power forward. If Luke Fischer proves to be an above-average center OR JaJuan Johnson plays at the level he did in the first four games (11 steals, 9 rebounds), then Marquette would become one of only 15 teams who could put five above average players on the court at once.

Carlino has improved Marquette by an average of 5.98 points per game, making it likely he will join Gardner, Hayward, James, DJO, Mathews, McNeal and Novak as a Top 100 player (for ratings from 2003 to 2014 click here). He is ranked 120th right now of 4000 players, but players in major conferences usually move up once conference play begins because their Strength of Defense faced factor improves.

For a quick historical detour, I discovered for the first time when writing this that the only two teams with FOUR Top 10 players have been MU (Butler, Crowder, Diener and Wade) and Steve Wojciechowski’s former team Duke. Wisconsin would become the third team to do it if Frank Kaminisky finishes in the Top 10.

But back to the present …

In addition to Carlino and Anderson, the team also boasts two other players who measure as strong major college starters (above 3.0 Value Add means you should be starting for a major team) in Duane Wilson and Steve Taylor. Taylor has been forced to match up against bigger centers all year pending Fischer’s return in the next game (Arizona State), so it will be interesting to see if he is even better when being able to slide over to Power Forward in some games.

The only 14 teams that currently have five above-average starters (3.0 or higher) are Arkansas, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Miami FL, Michigan St., North Carolina, Ohio St., San Diego St., Texas, Villanova and Virginia.

With this potential balance, the high level of play from Carlino and Anderson, and two neutral site wins over major conference opponents, Marquette could pull off a few upsets in their seven road games against teams in the top 60 at www.kenpom.com. Do that, and we could suddenly be hoping for a repeat of the astonishing 2010 bid during which MU suddenly went 11-2 in a stretch to get to the Big East title game and make the NCAA.

As for the competition, the following is the All-Big East team based on www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings but with an attempt to balance for positions on each of the three squads.

I featured Seton Hall’s Sterling Gibbs in a Breitbart Sports piece today. He has been the best player in the country while having an offensive rating of more than 100 in ten straight games going back to his upset of Villanova.

1st Team All-Big East

All five first teamers have turned in dominant performances to give the Big East a great start, though Henton and Providence have fallen off dramatically including an embarrassing home loss to Brown.

PG, 4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown, 6.11

SG, 4 Sterling Gibbs, Seton Hall, 11.82

SF, 23 LaDontae Henton, Providence, 8.93

PF, 40 Matt Stainbrook, Xavier, 8.09

PF, 15 Sir'Dominic Pointer, St. John's, 9.47

2nd Team All-Big East
As noted, Carlino would run the offense for the 2nd team.

PG, 13 Matt Carlino, Marquette, 5.98

SG, 21 Isaiah Zierden, Creighton, 5.93

SF, 5 Trevon Bluiett, Xavier, 7.83

PF, 4 Myke Henry, DePaul, 5.48

C, 23 Daniel Ochefu, Villanova, 5.11

3rd Team All-Big East
Anderson would practically be playing for Villanova on the third team if center Daniel Ochefu just fell off a little to drop from second to third team.

PG, 15 Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova, 3.3

SG, 31 Dylan Ennis, Villanova, 5.44

SF, 3 Josh Hart, Villanova, 5.36

PF, 10 Juan Anderson, Marquette, 5.36

C, 31 Kameron Woods, Butler, 4.73

Best of the Rest (3.0+ equals solid starter)

Obviously the team cannot afford injuries with Burton (only 57th best player in conference with a 1.47) and Dawson departed, but if these eight stay healthy Fischer, Sandy Cohen and Derrick Wilson certainly provide enough defense. If the season ended today MU would not get an invite anywhere, but for the first time we now have a shot to do more than just dream about next season’s class.

16, SF, 2 Kris Jenkins, Villanova, 4.51

17, PF, 2 Brandon Mobley, Seton Hall, 4.41

18, C, 24 Joshua Smith, Georgetown, 4.29

19, PF, 20 Desi Rodriguez, Seton Hall, 4.23

20, C, 1 Jalen Reynolds, Xavier, 4.04

25, SF, 1 Duane Wilson, Marquette, 3.34

27, C, 25 Steve Taylor, Marquette, 3.06

32, SF, 23 JaJuan Johnson, Marquette, 2.69

Sunday, December 07, 2014

Breaking: Wisconsin still sucks, Marquette may not be terrible, and Fischer is on his way

Nobody likes to lose, especially to a rival as filthy and despicable as the rodents from the west. However, that's what happened Saturday with a scrappy Marquette team taking on the #2 team in the country hanging in until late in the game. On this podcast we discuss the game, what we liked and didn't like and if anything can be taken away from a positive perspective. One of the definite positives is that Luke Fischer is now eligible and we will see this team with someone taller than 6'7" in 9 days when they play Arizona State. We discuss the anticipated impact Fischer will on the team both positively and negatively. We also discuss the implications of his availability to the rest of the players on the team, who will get more or less minutes and who's performance will improve. We then transition to the next game on the schedule, Arizona State at home after a week and a half off. What kind of performance can we anticipate from the team. We've got a lot of time between now and the next Marquette game, go ahead and listen a couple of times, if you don't enjoy it...we'll give you your money back. Download this episode (right click and save)

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Anderson surges into top 100 Value Add Defenders: 9 Defensive Rebounds & Helped Make 2nd Best Offense Play like 333rd Best

Juan Anderson should rank as one of the top 100 defenders in the country after his performance Saturday. Coming into the game, Anderson's defensive Value Add ranked him as the 124th best defender of the 4000 Division 1 players (-1.82 means he takes away an average of 1.82 points per game from Marquette's opponents). That number will drop substantially after he grabbed an incredible nine defensive rebounds against the much taller Badgers, and was a key to holding Wisconsin to a pace of 90.7 points per 100 trips. Wisconsin ranks as the 2nd best offense in the country with 113.4 points per 100 trips adjusted for defense - but their Saturday total of 90.7 would make them the 333rd best offense.

Anderson should join fewer than 100 players in the country who take more than two points a game away from their opponents beyond what a replacement player would be expected to do with his defense. Below are each players season projections and actual Value Add at www.valueaddbasketball.com coming into Saturday's game.data base.

You get this by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com, putting "Marquette" in the search box, and then hitting the arrow by the "Player" heading so each player's projection and actual Value Add are next to each other.

When you do the math, Juan, Matt, Steve and Duane have all been more than two points per game better than projected. It looked like they would add about 6.27 points per game to Marquette's margin above how Marquette would do if each was replaced by the 500th best Power Forward, Point Guard, Center and Small Forward/Swing Player. In fact, the four combine for a Value Add of 16.00 exactly, meaning without the four of them we would likely have lost to Wisconsin by 27 instead of by 11 points today.

Derrick's improvement was actually probably two points as well. Value Add is "politically correct" in that we never give a player a rating below ZERO and Derrick therefore had a 0.00 Projected Value add instead of a negative number. Remember that about 1500 of the D1 players have a 0.00. Derrick's actual Value Add has been 0.99 so he adds a point.

Today's performance will hurt everyone's offensive ratings. Despite Matt's great points, his five turnovers kept him down to a Rating of 89 points per 100 trips down the court against a top 10 Wisconsin defense that that was giving up the same on 88.9 points per 100 trips. Every other offensive player has a very low rating, except for the short appearances by Deonte and Sandy.

However, defensive ratings will get better after holding the 2nd-ranked offense in the country down so well. The team's best defensive player (Juan Anderson, -1.89 for taking two points a game away from MU opponent's) will have a phenomenal defensive improvement for his part in holding the Badgers' scoring down and grabbing nine defensive rebounds.

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

A week can change a lot of things, including the level of Badger Hate

Well, the tone of this podcast has certainly changed in the last number of hours we're too lazy to calculate, lets just call it a week. Legitimately concerned about a 1-2 finish in the Orlando Classic, the previous podcast was filled with doom and gloom. However after seeing, ya know, the team actually play the games, we are decidedly more upbeat. We discuss the results of the Orlando Classic and how impressed we were by the coaching staff making changes to the plan based on previous results. That's a slight change from the previous regime. We then discuss the players themselves and who's impressed and what has made the biggest impact on the performance in Orlando. Lastly, we turn to the big angry elephant in the room, the showdown with Bucky in the Bradley Center. We kick off #badgerhateweek with our general overview of how the game is going to go, and then what has to happen in an ideal world for Marquette to get the win. Lastly, we go on a mini-rant, because we are filled with hate, about some evil maniacs twitter idea, #sconniepact. Sit back, listen, and let us fill you with BadgerHate Download this episode (right click and save)

Saturday, November 29, 2014

History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

Marquette opponents are hitting 57.1% of their two-pointers, but the arrival of shot-blocker Luke Fischer December 16 will drop that figure by 10% if history holds. Fischer blocked 8.8% of opponents’ two-pointers last season at Indiana, and when Marquette has had at least one player average blocking more than 4% of opponents’ two-pointers they have held opponents to 48% or less every season.

Here is the breakdown of opponents' 2-point percentage in relation to MU's top shot-blocker each season:

  • Top shot-blocker below 4% since 2003 (4 times) – every season at least 49.3% allowed for average of 51.7% opponents' 2-point shots made
  • Top shot-blocker above 4% since 2003 (9 seasons) – every season 48% or less for average of 45.7% opponents' field goals made
  • When Jim McIlvaine was 1994 National Defensive Player of the Year he blocked 14.4% and MU allowed a record low 36.8% of opponents' 2-point shots to go in
Despite Marquette’s terrible field goal percentage allowed (the 57.1% allowed ranks MU 328th of 351 defenses), the pressure is so good (force turnovers 25.9% of trips down the court for 20th best of 351 defenses) that the overall defense is almost exactly average (99.5 points per 100 trips).  That’s only the ninth best defense in the Big East, but if the team can keep turning the ball over and Fischer’s presence at the rim lowers the field goal percentage allowed as has always been the case, Marquette could easily move up to about 6th in defense in the Big East.

Marquette is battling Seton Hall to have the 6th best offense, so if they finish 6th in both offense and defense they logically would finish around 6th in the conference instead of 9th - where they are currently projected.

This year Deonte Burton has led the team by blocking 3.5% of opponents’ two-point shots. Marquette also lacked a shot-blocker in 2004 (Terry Sanders 3.4%), 2009 (Jimmy Butler 2.5%) and 2010 (Joe Fulce 2.9%), and opponents’ have averaged making 51.7% of their two-points shots in those years.
In the other seasons since the state has been kept at www.kenpom.com, Dwyane Wade, Marcus Jackson, Jamil Lott, Ousmane Barro (twice), Jamil Wilson, or Chris Otule (three times) have averaged blocking more than 4% of all opponents two-pointers, and in those seasons opponents’ have shot 45.7% on two-pointers.

I went back and did the math myself for the historic 1994 season by Jim McIlvaine, the current Marquette TV announcer who was national defensive player of the year that year.

If Luke Fischer improves at all on his 8.8% of shots blocked at Indiana last year, then he will be the greatest shot-blocker Marquette has had since McIlvaine.

Here is the actual table, which I kept at the bottom of this post since the code is impossible to read for MUScoop readers.

Year2-pt DefRankBlockerBlk%4%+?
199436.81Jim McIlvaine14.4Yes
200345.976Dwyane Wade4.2Yes
200449.3212Terry Sanders3.4No
200544.745Marcus Jackson5.4Yes
200645.987Jamil Lott6.5Yes
200745.252Ousmane Barro4.2Yes
200846.798Ousmane Barro6.4Yes
200950.3265Jimmy Butler2.5No
201050263Joe Fulce2.9No
201148179Chris Otule8.9Yes
201244.448Jamil Wilson5.8Yes
201344.976Chris Otule6.7Yes
201445.768Chris Otule6.4Yes
201557.1328Deonte Burton3.5No
2015??Luke Fischer8.8Yes
2003-51.7Ave less than 4% Block since 20033.1No
2003-45.7Ave more than 4% block since 20036.1Yes

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Thanksgiving for Great Start to Hoops Season

No, I'm not being sarcastic. Obviously the guys had to fight hard to avoid a second embarrassing loss, and they now have to face a much tougher than expected Georgia Tech team tonight.

However, the keys to Marquette basketball long-term were the recruiting class and the success of the Big East. Doug McDermott single-handedly kept the Big East afloat as a major conference last year, and going into the season I had the conference ranked 6th and teetering on being classified as a "Mid-Major" with the Power Conferences consolidating power.

When I visited campus for the opener I told one person, "I hate to admit this, but it is much more important that the Big East has a good season than that Marquette has a good season this year."

A bad season and recruits go elsewhere to play in major match-ups. Yes, Fox Sports 1 is locked in for a long time, but a bad year and they start to wonder if they really should have broadcast more Big East games last year than ESPN broadcast NBA games. A bad year and we are battling the Atlantic 10 and others for conference bragging rights, and we lose any chance to strategically decide to lure in VCU or some other team if it makes sense.

With that in mind, I wrote the folowing last night (before the Thanksgiving games). I had ranked the Big East as the 6th best conference based on preseason www.valueaddbasketball.com, but the top 8 teams starting 35-0 has the conference up to 4th my ratings which are coming out on Breitbart Sports (but have not been posted as of this writing).

Big East (improves from 6th to 4th rank)

Thanksgiving came a day early for Fox Sports 1 when the Big East moved up to fourth in the ranking of conferences with a stunning trio of upsets. After Fox Sports 1 made a half-billion dollar investment in the Big East made up of the "Catholic 7," ESPN used a Catholic term to declare the conference dead by releasing Requiem for the Big East, but Wednesday's stunning upsets of Florida, Minnesota, and UNC have the Big East surging into the rankings for the top conferences (see below).

Except for Marquette and DePaul, the Big East is now 35-0 after St. John's upset Minnesota (Big Ten), Georgetown upset Florida (SEC), and Butler shocked UNC (ACC) Wednesday to move the conference ahead of conferences in which ESPN has invested billions.
The Fox Sports 1 play to break into the New York sports market included the purchase of the Big East and Yankees TV rights, while ESPN has gone after the Big East brand much as they have attacked the Redskins brand with a steady campaign.

The Big East was made up of the "Catholic 7" schools that broke away from football members of the conference last year and signed with the new Fox Sports 1, but struggled in its initial NCAA tournament and started this year ranked as the sixth best conference based on www.valueaddbasketball.com as reported by Breitbart. However, with every team except Marquette and DePaul undefeated entering the holiday weekend, the conference passed the Pac-12 and SEC in the rankings released below.

Wins to date have included tournament-bound teams with Butler stunning UNC, Georgetown over Florida, Creighton over Oklahoma, St. John’s over Minnesota, Providence over Notre Dame, and Villanova beating both VCU and Michigan to put Fox Sports 1’s station in the top four with the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten.

Conference Rankings (4th through 1st)
The ratings below indicate which teams in each conference are substantially above or below their preseason Value Add ranking (see separate post in which each team's season to date is rated from a "10" for far exceeding expectations to a "0" for falling far short).

Kris Dunn's emergence at Providence gives the Big East seven teams that would make the NCAA tournament based on the www.kenpom.com ratings. Butler and Creighton have played well above expectations to join Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, St. John's and Xavier in the top 50 in those ratings. Seton Hall is a near miss, while DePaul and a disappointing Marquette are not in the top 100. Typically a team must be in the top 50 to make the NCAA tournament.

Above Expectations (4 teams): 42. Butler, 44. Creighton, 27. Georgetown, 7. Villanova.

Disappointments (1): 122. Marquette.

Other Tourney Teams (3): 34. Providence, 46. St. John's, 36. Xavier.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Now where did I put that darn panic button?

We tried to tell you this team would struggle against even bad teams at times, we are going to say the recent loss to Nebraska Omaha counts as a bad team and a very bad loss. Is it a disaster? There seems to be some debate about that and the core to some of our discussion. We do want to remind those on the ledges across the global that this isn't the worst loss MU has had and that it's early, the team can and should improve. So we talk generically about the last couple of games, the little bit that went right(offense generally, Derrick Wilson, and Juan Anderson) and what definitely went wrong and needs to change. Also, we were in the same room together for a podcast for once and the sound quality turned out just slightly better than the Omaha game. Here's to hoping we see significant improvement Monday night against NJIT and in the Orlando Classic or it could be a VERY rough November. Download this episode (right click and save)

Monday, October 27, 2014

Finally, the season is almost here

We are less than two weeks away from the start of the season, if you count an exhibition game as the start of the season(we all know the selection committee counts them). Since we are so close, and neither of us will be around for the month of November, we decided it was time to review the schedule and predict every result. Neither of us are particularly optimistic but we aren't paid to predict anything so our opinions probably don't count for much. After we go through the schedule top to bottom, we transition to discussing the starting line-up and some of the distribution of minutes that will need to happen for MU to be successful. Lastly, we turn to a podcast gimmick in which we create fake pre-season awards and then arbitrarily give them to players....trust me it's podcast gold Jerry! Download this episode (right click and save)

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Projections for 2016 NCAA Includes Ellenson-led MU

MUs best recruit in decades projects to land MU back in the NCAA tournament in 2016. Henry Ellenson steps on the court projected to be the 189th best Value Add player in the country even as a freshman. A look at MU’s projected roster for 2016 indicates three more players projected to be among the top 10% in the country – enough to propel MU to fourth in the Big East behind Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova (see updated google doc here).

The full database is at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but it is not updated currently. The ceiling for MU is higher due to players whose projections were held down by injuries or a lack of playing time:

2016 MU Value Add Projections
Burton, Deonte: 4.4 (268th of 4000 players)
Cheatham, Haanif: 1.41 (717th)
Cohen, Sandy: 2.28 (527th)
Dawson, John: 0.00 (with more PT should move up)
Ellenson, Henry: 4.9 (189th, or top 5%)
Ellenson, Wally: 0.00 (based on dunking at MU Madness could be better)
Fischer, Luke: 0.94 (partial season at Indiana holds him down)
Heldt, Matt: 0.30 (some ratings have higher)
Johnson, JaJuan: 2.98 (402nd misses top 10% by 2 spots)
Levin, Gabe: 1.15 (830th)
Taylor, Steve: 0.12 (season-long injury held projection down)
Wilson, Duane: 3.7 (313th)

The Big East does not project to have any top five seeds in 2016, but seven of the ten teams project to either make the tournament or be one of the next teams out.

Big East 2016 Projections 
(4 teams in, 3 more just miss on bubble)
Georgetown, BE, 6-seed
Xavier, BE, 9-seed
Villanova, BE, 9-seed
Marquette, BE, 11-seed
St. John's, BE, 4th bubble (out of NCAA)
Providence, BE, 5th bubble (out of NCAA)
Seton Hall, BE, 10th bubble (out of NCAA)
Butler, BE, out
Creighton, BE, out
DePaul, BE, out

The following are other projected seeds and next 10 teams out.

Rest of the NCAA field and 1st Ten Out
Starting with projected 1-seeds
Arizona, p12, 1-seed
Duke, ACC, 1-seed
Kansas, b12, 1-seed
Kentucky, sec, 1-seed
Connecticut, Amer, 2-seed
Florida, Amer, 2-seed
Louisville, ACC, 2-seed
North Carolina, ACC, 2-seed
Memphis, Amer, 3-seed
Michigan St., b10, 3-seed
Syracuse, ACC, 3-seed
Virginia, ACC, 3-seed
Baylor, B12, 4-seed
Indiana, B10, 4-seed
Louisiana St., SEC, 4-seed
UCLA, p12, 4-seed
Florida St., ACC, 5-seed
Maryland, B10, 5-seed
Missouri, SEC, 5-seed
Texas, B12, 5-seed
Michigan, B10, 6-seed
Nevada Las Vegas, mwc, 6-seed
North Carolina St., ACC, 6-seed
ACC, P12, 7-seed
Arkansas, SEC, 7-seed
Oregon, P12, 7-seed
Southern Methodist, Amer, 7-seed
Houston, Amer, 8-seed
Illinois, b10, 8-seed
Kansas St., B12, 8-seed
Ohio St., b10, 8-seed
Miami FL, ACC, 9-seed
Oklahoma, B12, 9-seed
Iowa St., B12, 10-seed
Purdue, B10, 10-seed
San Diego St., mwc, 10-seed
Tulsa, Amer, 10-seed
Cincinnati, Amer, 11-seed
George Washington, A10, 11-seed
Georgia, SEC, 11-seed
Gonzaga, wcc, 11-seed
Southern California, p12, 11-seed
Army, Pat, 12-seed
Georgia St., SB, 12-seed
Northwestern St., Slnd, 12-seed
Wichita St., MVC, 12-seed
Hawaii, BW, 13-seed
Hofstra, CAA, 13-seed
Siena, MAAC, 13-seed
Texas El Paso, CUSA, 13-seed
Belmont, OVC, 14-seed
High Point, BSth, 14-seed
Stony Brook, ae, 14-seed
Wisconsin Green Bay, Horz, 14-seed
Northern Illinois, MAC, 15-seed
Oral Roberts, Sum, 15-seed
Weber St., BSky, 15-seed
Yale, Ivy, 15-seed
Alabama St., SWAC, 16-seed
Chattanooga, sc, 16-seed
Chicago St., WAC, 16-seed
Howard, MEAC, 16-seed
Kennesaw St., ASun, 16-seed
Mount St. Mary's, NEC, 16-seed
Stanford, p12, 1st bubble (out of NCAA)
Nebraska, B10, 2nd bubble (out of NCAA)
Pittsburgh, ACC, 3rd bubble (out of NCAA)
Colorado, P12, 6th bubble (out of NCAA)
Alabama, SEC, 7th bubble (out of NCAA)
Auburn, sec, 8th bubble (out of NCAA)

Mississippi St., SEC, 9th bubble (out of NCAA)

Monday, October 13, 2014

Embrace the Madness (and tall gentlemen from Rice Lake)

We start out with the obvious, welcoming MU's newest recruit(and most important in the last 20 years), Henry Ellenson. We try to temper expectations but can't help ourselves. We then transition to some interesting observations from Jon Rothstein who was at practice on the 8th. We discuss what his observations mean and if they make sense. Lastly, we turn to Marquette Madness and discuss whether it tells us almost nothing or absolutely nothing. Download this episode (right click and save)

Friday, September 26, 2014

Gardner signs in France after one of greatest Value Add runs at MU

Davante Gardner, who was the 55th best Value Add player in the country his junior season and still in the top 4% of all players his senior season, has signed a pro contract in France.

Gardner's sophomore year was the 32nd best of any Marquette player. Only four Marquette players matched three years at that level - Travis Diener, Lazar Hayward, Dominic James (now Dominic Wright) and Wesley Matthews.

Dwyane Wade's 2003 was the best of any player, when he had the 7th best season in the 12-year history of the Value Add database. Travis Diener had three of Marquette's top 10 seasons, and Jimmy Butler had two of Marquette's top 10 seasons.

I first saw Davante Gardner when I flew to Marquette for the Notre Dame game which he took as his visit from my native Virginia, and loved his play for all four years - believing he became easily Marquette's best player. We wish him and Jamil Wilson, who is fighting to become Marquette's 37th NBA player, the best of luck.

Below are the players with the top 50 Value Add seasons for Marquette, with notes on their pro careers after Marquette. Dwight Buycks' best season was actually the 56th best, but we include him as an honorable mention since he played in the NBA last year.

Top 50 MU SeasonsPlayerValue AddYearPro career after Marquette?
19Acker, Maurice5.082010France is 6th pro country
38Barro, Ousmane3.342007
39Barro, Ousmane2.952008Romania is 6th pro country
26Blue, Vander4.0220133 NBA Games with Celtics
45Blue, Vander2.642012
5Butler, Jimmy7.79201087 NBA Starts with Bulls
9Butler, Jimmy6.372011
42Butler, Jimmy2.812009
HM (56)Buycks, Dwight1.73201114 NBA games with raptors
37Cadougan, Junior3.362013Canadian National Team
49Cadougan, Junior2.462012
31Chapman, Joe3.72006Japan
2Crowder, Jae11.12201224 NBA starts, 156 games for Mavs
12Crowder, Jae5.832011
36Cubillan, David3.442007Brief Israel contracts
40Cubillan, David2.942010
47Cubillan, David2.52008
3Diener, Travis9.31200421 NBA Starts with Pacers, 179 games
4Diener, Travis8.922005
7Diener, Travis6.532003
43Fitzgerald, Dan2.762007Spanish team is 8th pro team
11Gardner, Davante6.132013France - just signed
22Gardner, Davante4.752014
32Gardner, Davante3.542012
8Hayward, Lazar6.49201072 NBA games with Wolves and Thunder
15Hayward, Lazar5.522009
20Hayward, Lazar4.92008
21Jackson, Robert4.772003None known
13James, Dominic5.692006French career ended in 2013, name now Dominic Wright
17James, Dominic5.332008
24James, Dominic4.282007
30James, Dominic3.722009
18Johnson-Odom, Darius5.2620127 NBA games for Lakers, 76ers
35Johnson-Odom, Darius3.462011
46Johnson-Odom, Darius2.562010
50Lockett, Trent2.362013Top German League, D-League Select
10Matthews, Wesley6.192009321 NBA starts Jazz and Blazers, 14.0 ppg
27Matthews, Wesley3.922007
28Matthews, Wesley3.842008
14McNeal, Jerel5.662009Spanish team is 7th pro team
16McNeal, Jerel5.412008
33McNeal, Jerel3.52007
48McNeal, Jerel2.472006
29Merritt, Scott3.732003Japan
6Novak, Steve7.462006414 NBA games, 2085 points
23Novak, Steve4.652005
34Novak, Steve3.492004
41Novak, Steve2.852003
1Wade, Dwyane11.42003710 NBA Starts, 24.3 ppg, 6.0 ast, 5.0 reb, 1.8 stl, 1.0 blk
25Wilson, Jamil4.22013signs with Suns, trying to make team
44Wilson, Jamil2.732012

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Unexpectedly busy Tuesday

The pod signal went up, so here we are. Once of sounds like he's calling on a Campbell soup can, but hopefully you'll survive because we have a lot to talk about. It was a hectic Tuesday, with the new AD announced and then the complete schedule rolled out. We are barely qualified to talk about basketball so we certainly aren't qualified to vet an AD hire....doesn't mean we don't try. While not a complete, in-depth analysis of the schedule, we spend a little time talking about our overall impressions. We also decided to put our "optimism" hats on(surprised we could find them) to discuss what things could happen that would result in a positive experience this season. Lastly, we turn to recruiting, welcoming Haanif Cheathnam, the latest MU player that will have his name misspelled and mispronounced for the next four years, That leads into a general recruiting discussion which includes the 900 pound gorilla in the MU recruiting room. #bringDraketoMadness Download this episode (right click and save)

Thursday, August 28, 2014

MU in H. Ellenson's Final 3, Crystal Ball/Value Add Composite Projects MU 4th in BE in 2016

The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page

Name20142015Rnk2016Rnk2016 ClassHtNBA%
Ellenson, HenryNANA4.901890 Prep6'10"TBD
Burton, Deonte1.663.363364.402672 So6'4"SG36%
Wilson, DuaneRS1.806543.703131 Fr6'2"
Johnson, JaJuan0.302.984072.984022 So6'5"SG30%
Cohen, SandyNA1.138722.285281 Fr6'5"
Cheatham, HaanifNANA1.417190 Prep6'5"
Noskowiak, NickNANA1.208060 Prep6'2"
Levin, Gabe0.57Trans1.158302 So6'7"
Fischer, Luke0.360.7211210.949072 So6'11"
Heldt, Mattnot yetnot yet0.300 Prep6'10"
Taylor, Steve0.080.1019250.1217903 Jr6'7"
Dawson, John0.000.0099990.002 So6'2"
Ellenson, Wally0.00not yet0.003 Jr6'10"
Carlino, Matt2.603.073884 Sr6'2"
Anderson, Juan1.101.308044 Sr6'6"
Wilson, Derrick0.000.0099994 Sr6'1"
Gardner, Davante4.75Grad5 Gone6'8"
Otule, Chris0.41Grad5 Gone6'11"
Thomas, Jake0.77Grad5 Gone6'3"
Wilson, Jamil1.47Grad5 Gone6'7"
Mayo, Todd1.82Draft5 Gone6'3"

After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.

The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.

Team2015 Conf201420152016
North CarolinaACC2665
Michigan St.B10163811
Florida St.ACC302214
Nevada Las VegasMWC842819
Louisiana St.SEC665020
Southern MethodistAmer331524
North Carolina St.ACC513325






St. John'sBE764645
Seton HallBE1108552