"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, January 26, 2015

Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten

In a piece on Coach K on Breitbart this morning, I noted that Duke players had dominated the Value Add rankings (see 2003-2015 players here) with 35 top 100 players and eight top 10 players - but the table also noted that Marquette had the 10th most top 100 players (18) and the third most top 10 players (Butler, Crowder, Diener, Wade).

The weekly run of the www.valueaddbasketball.com numbers tonight (database not updated yet) showed Marquette now has their 19th top 100 player in Matt Carlino, and Derrick Wilson is one of the most improved players in jumping from a 0,00 Value Add last season to 3.42 - the 27th best total in the tough Big East.

Carlino's recent impersonation of Steve Novak (19 of 33 treys for 58% and 18-19 free throws for 95% in last four games) has shot him all the way to 94th. I know "top 100" does not sound great - but it is phenomenal when you consider the 4000+ players in the country. In fact, I get lots of complaints from around the country in disbelief that a local star is not in the top 100.

The fact that Carlino did this against defenses that were were very good: one average (Creighton100.6 points per 100 trips just better than average), one good (Xavier 98.3) and two excellent (St. John's 92.9 and Georgetown 94.3) shoots him way up the list. Carlino is worth 6.30 extra points a game to MU according to Value Add - the 8th best total in the Big East.

But Derrick's surge is the more surprising and really makes the case for a potential quiet most improved player of the year. Wilson never hit even 1.00 in his first three seasons, and last year collapsed to a 0.00 only because we do not give negative numbers.

The thing that Value Add measures that most do not see are players who do not make mistakes - and Derrick has turned into one of the best at not COSTING MU points:

The thing that makes Derrick so much more valuable this year is not that he suddenly doesn't mind going to the hoop to slam twice in a short span (once while being mauled), or that his three-pointer has become just enough of a threat that you cannot leave him alone.

Ken Pomeroy measures Derrick as one of the best at avoiding fouls. He takes so few bad shots, that Derrick IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE SHOOTER THIS SEASON (jumped from 40.9 eFG% last year to 49.0% this season). Yes, the free throw percentage overall is dreadful, but his 58% since Thanksgiving is not that bad - so all the offseason shooting has paid off.

The fun starts when you compare Derrick to three point guards that some considered the best three in the country coming into this year; UNC's Marcus Paige, Kentucky's Andrew Harrison and West Virginia's Juwan Staten.

Obviously those three are light years ahead of Derrick on offense, and may make take over games on the way to title runs. But ignore the differences in shooting for a minute. Derrick's on-ball defense is excellent, so lets go through the other numbers:

Derrick has come up with 23 steals, the exact average of Paige/Harrison/Staten

Derrick has done this while committing only 31 fouls - an incredible ratio and just one more foul than the average of the Big Three - and with Derrick having to commit a few late fouls to stop the clock really no difference there.

Here is where it gets fun - Derrick has come up with those steals on one end of the court while only turning the ball over 25 times at the other end -meaning he has turned the ball over A DOZEN TIMES FEWER than the average of the Big 3 (37 turnovers). Remember, there are over twice as many turnovers as steals due to balls thrown out of bounds, travels, etc.

The big three have only a slight edge over Derrick in assists - 78 to 70 - despite MU playing at a slow tempo. But that is more than made up for by Derrick ripping down 15 more rebounds that the average of the other three (62 to 47 edge).

Of course once you add in the offensive explosiveness of those three they are all still in the top 5% of all players and average a 5.71 Value Add, while Derrick comes in at 437th with a 3.42 Value Add, but he has worked very hard to do the things he can do very well and be a strong contributor.

With advanced apologies to MUScoop readers who of course can never read the Top 100 when the code is jumped when these Cracked Sidewalks posts are pulled over to the scoop - here are the top 100 players in the Big East.

PlayerNatlBETeamValue add
15 Sir'Dominic Pointer141St. John's8.42
4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera172Georgetown8.31
23 LaDontae Henton483Providence7.19
40 Matt Stainbrook624Xavier6.89
3 Kris Dunn665Providence6.82
4 Sterling Gibbs806Seton Hall6.50
11 D'Angelo Harrison837St. John's6.43
13 Matt Carlino948Marquette6.30
4 Darrun Hilliard999Villanova6.21
23 Daniel Ochefu13610Villanova5.70
31 Kameron Woods14511Butler5.58
3 Josh Hart15512Villanova5.44
24 Joshua Smith16813Georgetown5.31
3 Alex Barlow17614Butler5.24
2 Brandon Mobley18715Seton Hall5.05
31 Angel Delgado19416Seton Hall4.94
15 Ryan Arcidiacono20817Villanova4.80
24 Kellen Dunham21818Butler4.74
12 Chris Obekpa25619St. John's4.45
5 Trevon Bluiett26920Xavier4.37
31 Dylan Ennis28921Villanova4.20
21 Roosevelt Jones33222Butler3.97
55 Jabril Trawick35523Georgetown3.84
1 Jalen Reynolds37824Xavier3.71
11 Dee Davis38125Xavier3.68
5 Billy Garrett38826DePaul3.66
12 Derrick Wilson43727Marquette3.42
15 Myles Davis44528Xavier3.38
22 JayVaughn Pinkston45929Villanova3.31
1 Duane Wilson46730Marquette3.28
0 Khadeen Carrington46931Seton Hall3.27
4 Myke Henry47632DePaul3.24
33 Carson Desrosiers47933Providence3.24
25 Durrell McDonald48534DePaul3.23
2 Kris Jenkins48735Villanova3.21
21 Isaiah Zierden50036Creighton3.16
23 Rysheed Jordan50737St. John's3.14
20 Desi Rodriguez55238Seton Hall3.00
25 Tyler Harris56339Providence2.98
10 Remy Abell59040Xavier2.87
10 Juan Anderson59341Marquette2.86
21 Jamee Crockett65742DePaul2.67
15 Isaiah Whitehead68543Seton Hall2.57
1 Austin Chatman68944Creighton2.56
45 Andrew Chrabascz70245Butler2.53
13 Paul White76946Georgetown2.37
23 Aaron Bowen83447Georgetown2.22
3 Mikael Hopkins84648Georgetown2.18
0 Jamal Branch86149St. John's2.16
40 Luke Fischer88350Marquette2.11
5 Sandy Cohen88851Marquette2.10
23 JaJuan Johnson89252Marquette2.09
11 Forrest Robinson97253DePaul1.96
55 J.P. Macura99854Xavier1.92
32 Toby Hegner101355Creighton1.89
11 Isaac Copeland103556Georgetown1.86
5 Phil Booth109557Villanova1.75
1 Phil Greene110058St. John's1.74
2 Tommy Hamilton111159DePaul1.72
31 Will Artino119760Creighton1.60
23 James Milliken127661Creighton1.51
3 Brandon Randolph129262Xavier1.50
1 Tre Campbell130963Georgetown1.48
25 Steve Taylor131264Marquette1.47
24 Kyron Cartwright133065Providence1.46
0 L.J. Peak133766Georgetown1.45
5 Devin Brooks139167Creighton1.39
2 James Farr148368Xavier1.28
0 Austin Etherington157769Butler1.17
15 Ricky Kreklow163170Creighton1.12
30 Jaren Sina178271Seton Hall1.00
4 Tyler Wideman179372Butler0.99
15 Aaron Simpson179973DePaul0.98
13 Paschal Chukwu180674Providence0.97
21 Jalen Lindsey192675Providence0.83
30 Deonte Burton213876Marquette0.64
30 Kelan Martin220477Butler0.58
22 Ted Bancroft226178Providence0.53
45 Stephane Manga232079Seton Hall0.49
41 Geoffrey Groselle235080Creighton0.47
33 Joe Hanel245181DePaul0.39
24 Felix Balamou248482St. John's0.38
13 Jackson Davis252183Butler0.36
14 Amar Alibegovic252584St. John's0.36
32 Junior Lomomba257885Providence0.33
11 Jackson Aldridge260686Butler0.32
4 Edmond Sumner263687Xavier0.30
0 Larry Austin263788Xavier0.30
1 Darrick Wood263889DePaul0.30
22 Avery Dingman272690Creighton0.24
0 R.J. Curington273891DePaul0.23
13 Haralds Karlis273992Seton Hall0.23
25 Rashed Anthony274493Seton Hall0.23
42 Chier Ajou275694Seton Hall0.23
14 Darryl Reynolds280295Villanova0.20
0 Leon Gilmore285896Creighton0.16
20 Patrick Farrell287597Villanova0.15
2 Myles Stewart288498St. John's0.15
4 Christian Jones289999St. John's0.13
14 Ismael Sanogo2900100Seton Hall0.13

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