Well, That Was Fun

Really, does it get much better in early December than last night?  Surely you know by now, but Jae Crowder hit a late-game three to take MU to the victory.  It was a very entertaining game, featuring 15+ lead changes (mostly in the second half), and all kinds of highlights.  Plus, it was on the big stage of Madison Square Garden with the full muscle and might of ESPN behind it.  Last night's game and victory were BIG TIME.  So big that for a while Jae Crowder was the #1 trending topic on Twitter.*

*filed under phrases I never thought I would type two years ago.  For about ten different reasons.

Two minutes in the game, Marquette lost Otule for the game.  Without their best rebounder and space eater, MU got slaughtered on the boards and had trouble adjusting defensively.  And they still won.  Two games in a row, MU was down a starter in a big-time game.  And they still won.  Marquette really did not play all that great last night.  And they still won.

Despite all the positive vibes, there are a few reasons to be concerned.  For one, the bad defense showed up last night.  Last night's game was so entertaining because it was all offensively driven (well, that and the myriad of highlights from both teams).  Marquette just couldn't get stops.  After opening the season with four out of seven games of a defensive eFG% less than 40%, Washington had an eFG% of 53% for the game.  The Huskies shot 57% in the first half!  And when UW wasn't hitting on a high percentage of shots, they were grabbing an offensive rebound on almost half of their missed shots.  If that final shot from Jae doesn't go down, the entire story of this recap is "what the #$%^& happened to the defense?".

Can all that be attributed to the loss of Otule?  Certainly, UW was a bad matchup to lose your tallest player, considering they are one of the tallest teams in the nation, and offensive rebounding is one of their strengths.  However, Syracuse, UConn, and WVU are all taller.  Heck, UWGB and LSU are taller than Washington.  Marquette needs to get their defensive mojo back, especially if Otule misses any amount of time.  The extra days off until Saturday will help for sure.  Just remember that it's been the defensive improvement this year that has made the biggest difference.

Despite those comments, there's a LOT to like about this year's team.  They have added experience to their toughness and hustle.  As we put out there, last year's team probably doesn't win this game (Vanderbilt / Louisville).  Good morning, 8-0!

More kudos

• I've long said that I'll believe a freshman contributes when a freshman contributes.  Mayo is that freshman.  His missed dunk was embarrassing, but the kid is efficient, confident, skilled and aggressive.  He'll be a three year starter.
• Jamil looked good again last night for the second game in a row.  A few more of those shots go down (and they will), and we're talking about him being a monster.  If that rebound-tip doesn't get stuck, it's probably a Sportscenter highlight.  And that wasn't the only time I rewound a play of his wondering, "how'd he get that rebound?"
• Loved Vander turning his opponent into a poster.  It was an NBA-type play.

Media Links to satisfy your cravings

• From Enlund's blog, Post-Game Quotes from the team
• The official JSOnline recap
• Paint Touches posts their thoughts from the win
• Anonymous Eagle has a post-game jubilation thread
• Here's the view from Seattle
• Jeff Goodman has a great post about MU and toughness (should MU try to shed the label?)
• ESPN has a rapid reaction blog post

Poof....

....and the season ends. Washington 80, Marquette 78.

Ultimately the Warriors were unable to protect a 15-point second half lead and showed nerves rather than poise down the stretch. In the game's critical final stages Marquette was no match for the Huskies, committing two turnovers and surrendering five offensive rebounds in the game's final 3:33 which led to four of UW's final six points. Incredibly, UW only had six offensive rebounds on the night but with the game on the line the Huskies gave no quarter.

Marquette finishes the season with a record of 22-12. Senior Lazar Hayward led MU with 20 points. Senior David Cubillan scored 14 points and pulled down eight boards while senior Maurice Acker finished with 13 points and five assists. Gentlemen, thank you for leading this overachieving bunch to such a memorable season.

Rosiak recaps the loss in his blog.
Box Score

Warriors look to survive and advance

Underdogs all season long the Marquette Warriors will once again look to silence the doubters when they hit the floor against the Washington Huskies on Thursday. The game pits two of the hottest teams in the country, two teams that rebounded from lackluster starts to make it to tonight's NCAA Tournament opener.

After an 11-8 start the Warriors closed the season on a memorable 11-3 run through the Big East. A pre-season pick to finish 12th in the Big East the Warriors refused to wilt, mastering a unique scheme and style of play that put the team in a position to win down the stretch of nearly every game. Meanwhile the Washington Huskies, a pre-season top 25 pick, won 12 of their last 14 games including the Pac-10 Conference tournament title.

Two hot teams with two very different styles of play in what figures to be a close game.....take one more look at Rob's model for an analysis of what to look for tonight. Survive and advance.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6:20 Marquette Standard Time. If you are not sure about the television schedule for your area we have details here.


What folks are saying

• Rosiak says MU needs an aggressive DJO to advance.
• Journal-Sentinel looks at the matchups for tonight's game and gives the advantage to UW in 3 of the 4 categories.
• The Seattle Times listens to the coaches -- tonight's game is a battle of styles. Lorenzo Romar accurately sums up MU in this report.

"We're going to be facing one of the most mentally tough teams, if not the most mentally tough, that we've faced all year," coach Lorenzo Romar said. "They are a scrappy bunch. Coming out on the short end of the stick just doesn't occur to this team that we're playing. They play 40 minutes and they're going to give you everything they got until that buzzer sounds."

• USA Today delivers a feauture on Lazar.
  
• SPI columnist Art Thiel says U-Dub is prepared to make a statement in tonight's game.
• Herb Gould from the Chicago Sun-Times figures that "Marquette is about two things....unity and hair."
• The Associated Press looks at where/when MU and UW turned their respective seasons around.
• MU/UW at a glance from the Seattle Times
• The News Tribune revisits MU's vertically challenged roster and what that could mean for UW.
• The News Tribune looks at how MU and UW rallied from slow starts in conference play.
• The Bleacher Report previews the action tonight and calls for a Huskies upset.
• Which team would win -- the 2010 Warriors or the 2006 Warriors. The Anonymous Eagle states the case for each.
• Buzz speaks with WTMJ.
• JS has a terrific media update as well -- including a series of predictions.
  
• The Muncie Star Press checks in on Maurice Acker and recounts his decision to leave Ball State for Marquette.
• Acker gets more love from the Chicago Tribune.
  

"When you prove everybody wrong, it's the best feeling in the world," Acker said. "It's like, ‘Yeah, look at us now. We made it even when people said we'd do nothing.' I'm so proud of this team."

Let's knock'em out, Warriors

A Numbers Look at Washington

Time to break this game down by the numbers with some predictions and recommendations for success. I'm not going to get into where Washington is good (turnover margin, pace, and offensive rebounding), and by now you should know the details on Marquette too. If you want the stories, take a few minutes and read the media update from this morning.

I boiled down the stats for each team (using only Top 100 Pomeroy opponents), and here are the predictions for each team.

MU prediction


Red is bad. The prediction according to the numbers is that Marquette will be worse than average on our field goal percentage, turnovers committed, and offensive rebounding. We are predicted to get to the line much more than normal. Taking this away from the pure stats, and this makes sense. Against an opponent that plays decent defense, forces a lot of turnovers, and commits a lot of fouls, MU should be impacted. Add it all up, though, and our overall efficiency is predicted to be worse than normal. Not so good.

UW prediction


The color code is still red = bad for MU, but it's set against Washington's season average. Unfortunately, Washington is predicted to shoot better than average on eFG% and do better than average on offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over more than they normally do and not get to the line as much. Again, taking it up a level, MU's defensive eFG% isn't that good, we force a lot of turnovers, we are not that strong at defensive rebounding, but we do a great job of limiting opponent free throws.

The bottom line

Unfortunately, the prediction is that Washington wins this game with an efficiency of 103.8 versus our efficiency of 98.7. Adjusted for pace, that's a 69-66 victory for UW. Boo!

Luckily, there is a ton of sensitivity in the prediction. How is it that the Warriors will be able to turn this around and win the game?

The most important three keys to the game

• #1 - Shoot well (no kidding). On specific numbers, MU needs to get an eFG% of 51% or more. That’s right at season average. MU should fire up a bunch of threes and make them. Marquette is 19-2 when shooting over 49% from eFG%. Our only two losses were @WVU and @VU in that list.
  

Here is the specific concern... Washington does a good job limiting three point accuracy.

However, the Pac10 is not a three ball conference. Consider this. Marquette is #7 in the country at making three point shots. Want to know who is best in the P10? Cal (#49), and then ASU (#62). Not only that, but teams don't take a lot of three pointers in the P10. Only one team in the P10 takes more three pointers than MU. That’s ASU (#9 overall). Even we don't take that many three pointers overall (#103 nationally). The key point is that UW has hardly faced a team that throws up as many threes as us, and hasn't even come close to a team that makes as many as we do (soft rims, soft rims, soft rims).

Also, please stop taking the long two-point jumper (the McNeal dribble-shoot) jumper. It's the most inefficient shot in basketball. Even when it goes in, it's a bad shot. Please. stop.

• #2 - Don’t let Washington get easy shots. Hold them to an eFG% of 45%.
  

Highly unlikely, mostly because our defense isn’t that good (because we’re short), although we are consistent. It's probably easier to say, don’t let Washington get over 50% and try to win other areas.

• #3 - Offensive Rebounding – If MU gets an OR% of 33% (meaning they get an offensive rebound on 1/3 of their missed shots), that increases their chances of winning significantly.
  

Marquette averages 32 rebounds per game. The prediction is that MU only gets 7 offensive rebounds against Washington. If Marquette could only get 11 total offensive rebounds, that would shift to a MU victory.

Here is the big concern. Want to know how many offensive rebounds MU had in the BET? Twelve. Over three games. The big concern is that Buzz will follow with his BET strategy (where our OR% was never higher than 15%) in an approach to prevent Washington from getting points on the break. Let's hope for some clutch offensive rebounds by Lazar or JFB.

Secondary importance for the victory

The following set of keys are important for victory, but are far less sensitive to the overall margin of victory.

• #4 - Protect the ball at a turnover rate of 13%.
  

Washington forces a lot of turnovers. They thrive on ball pressure, but realize that the Huskies don't force as many turnovers as Louisville, Syracuse, or even Marquette does. MU has protected the ball extremely well this year, and done better than 13% nine times this year, including against Syracuse.

This may be the key to the game according to Buzz’s gameplan. Honestly, I really like our chances with matchup, compared to when we face teams like Pitt, UConn, and Cincy. Those teams never force turnovers. In other words, if protecting the ball is a strength, each turnover is much more costly against teams that never force turnovers.

• #5 - Keep UW at an OR% of 27%

The Huskies are predicted to get 14 offensive rebounds. This is definitely a strength of their team. Of course, realize that here are teams in the BIG EAST that are better at offensive rebounding (West Virginia, Providence, Louisville, Cincy, UConn, Villanova, and Syracuse). UW would be the eighth best offensive rebounding team in the BIG EAST. We need to keep UW to less than ten overall offensive rebounds.

• #6 - Turn Washington over at a rate of 25%

This is really unlikely, and speaks to where the sensitivities start to come into play. A better bet is to just make sure that we win the turnover margin battle.

Summary

Even though the base prediction is that Washington will win by three, there is a ton of sensitivity in that analysis. Here's how MU will win

• Take and make threes. Lots of them.
• Limit UW’s break
• Keep the Offensive rebound margin close. Don’t get crushed on offensive rebounding 14-7! Keep it closer to 10-10 each
• Win the turnover margin battle

The bottom line is that this game will probably boil down to a single possession. (What else is new for Marquette?) In situations like that, every little thing matters. Watch the careless turnovers and root for every offensive rebound.

Everybody is talking up the NCAA Tournament

More media updates on Marquette hoops' fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance:

- The Seattle Times' Percy Allen notes love for the Huskies in this first round matchup though there is plenty of the same for MU.
- The Seattle Post Intelligencer on how MU succeeds despite shortcomings.
- The Anonymous Eagle brings us insight from a die-hard Washington Huskies fan
- Buzz Williams plays the underdog card despite being the higher seeded team.

“Anytime you play on the West Coast against a Pac-10 team,” Williams said as his team prepared for Thursday’s game in San Jose, “you’re definitely the underdog.”

- A preview of the game from the Seattle Times
- The AP says the Huskies will use size to go after smaller Warriors -- and an update on Isaiah Thomas' injured hand.
- The Kitsap Sun stays on the bigs v. smalls theme
- The Indianapolis Star blogs about MU's pod in San Jose
Not well-versed in Jesuit basketball history? Here's a primer.
- Blogger So Dear previews the East Region
- KU Sports Blogger sees MU as the most likely upset victim
- Fox Sports comes up with this team capsule on MU - here's the key weakness they cite:

WEAKNESSES: Marquette keeps every game close. The Golden Eagles don't put teams away, and have a tendency to get sloppy on offense when they have a lead. Marquette doesn't have much size on the interior -- Hayward, at 6-feet-5, is far from a true center, even if his hops and wingspan help him play bigger than that -- and when Maurice Acker and David Cubillan are in the game the Golden Eagles are very short on the perimeter as well. Free throws late in games have been a particular problem, so if the team is still shooting one-and-ones in the final minutes, no lead is safe.

We have a theme -- Lazar Hayward and Quincy Pondexeter played together on a USA National team last summer. The former teammates are featured in this syndicated article from McClatchy, this from the Journal Sentinel and this one from The Seattle Times. Team USA coach Frank Haith had this to say about Q and 'Zar

"They both are stars on their team, but going into this event they both accepted the role of we're going to do whatever we need to do to help us win," Haith said Tuesday in a telephone interview. "And they both fell into that. That shows you a little bit about those two kids' character.

"They worked well together. Lazar was kind of a combo player. He played the 3-4. Quincy was more of a perimeter player. He played the 2-3. You saw their character come out on the basketball court. They were very committed. They did the little things."

Buffalo's Lazar Haywars is ready to shine --be sure to watch the video at this link....Lazar Hayward, Sr. talks up his son.

Know Your Opponent: Washington Huskies

UPDATED

It's time for a primer on the Washington Huskies, a talented pre-season top 25 team that is now playing up to that level. Joining us today is Don Ruiz, the Washington Huskies beat reporter from The News Tribune in Tacoma. Don and his colleagues follow the Huskies closely in print and on their blog. Don was good enough to give us an in-depth look at Lorenzo Romar's Huskies in our latest installment of Know Your Opponent.

Can you give us a rundown of the Huskies' big four -- Thomas, Pondexter, Bryan-Amaning and Overton?

Not all Washington fans would necessarily relate to the idea of a Big Four. Most would think of a big two -- Quincy Pondexter, Isaiah Thomas -- and then some role players ... role players whose growing understanding of their roles has been crucial to the Huskies' late-season improvement.

Pondexter is the team's lone senior. He led the Huskies in scoring and rebounding and was in the top three in the Pac-10 in both categories. He also led the league in offensive rebounds. He scores primarily from mid-range and in -- pull-ups on drives and turnaround jumpers when posting.

Thomas is 5-foot-9, yet he gets most of his points by going to the rim. He'll get blocked sometimes, but he's relentless -- a pure scorer who always believes the next shot is going in. He' has really improved his defense this season. And while NBA scouts still want to see improvement in his passing and outside shooting over the next season or two, he has a knack for coming through when it matters.

Bryan-Amaning frustrated UW fans for his first two and a half seasons, because he has an NBA body and potential that he hadn't fulfilled. However, coach Lorenzo Romar benched him midway through this season and had a talk with him, challenging Bryan-Amaning to simplify his game -- fewer moves, just go to the hole. Since moving back among the starters in mid-February he has been a difference-making guy in the middle: double-digit points, 6-8-10 rebounds, shot-blocking and defense.

Venoy Overton -- and forward Justin Holiday -- both made the Pac-10 all-defensive team. And their defensive intensity has been crucial to the Huskies' recent improvement. Overton also is the team's assists leader, and he is the team's best free throw shooter when the game is on the line.

Though not mentioned, the other two key role guys are Elston Turner and Scott Suggs, either of whom can sometimes provide outside shooting on a team that otherwise doesn't have much of it.


Washington was a preseason Top 25 team but struggled early. The Huskies now have won 12 of their last 14 including the Pac 10 tourney title. What is clicking with his team right now that was absent earlier in the season?

That's the topic of my story in the Tuesday paper. The short version is that the Huskies had a pair of problems that were hard to overcome: no dependable scoring around the basket, but also no dependable outside shooting. It proved especially difficult to overcome on the road -- UW lost its first six games away from home. The emergence of Bryan-Amaning as an inside presence and third option helped a lot. Justin Holiday's insertion into the starting lineup on Jan. 14 also helped everyone buy into the defensive pressure. And that attitude just snowballed when they noticed how defensive pressure often transitioned into easy baskets. They seem to understand now they they have little margin for error, and therefore they're bringing full effort pretty regularly -- as Washington State coach Ken Bone said today, 'Not just every game, but almost every possession."


Thomas is playing great right now, winning the Pac-10 Tournament MVP award. Is his play the barometer for the Huskies' success, or does something else key the team?

Thomas has been pretty consistent. He was second team all-conference as a freshmen, and moved up to the (10-member) first team this season, while increasing his points, rebounds and assist numbers and vastly improving his defense. I wouldn't say his play is the barometer. UW can get by with either Thomas or Pondexter having an off night. But they can't get by with both having an off night.


Washington protects the ball very well -- is that a product of the skill of the team or the nature of the Pac-10 this season?

Coach Lorenzo Romar tends to recruit guards and athletic swingman-type forwards. Therefore while the team has no single amazing ball-handler point guard, just about everyone is comfortable handling the ball. However, they play an uptempo game, so Romar is generally happy if turnovers don't creep up much over a dozen.

However, the conference might have something to do with it, too. This used to be an aggressive man-to-man league. But several teams have gone primarily to zone this season.


Conventional wisdom is that the Pac10 is weak this year. How is the conventional wisdom off?

It's not. The Pac-10 lost 22 players to the NBA draft over the past two seasons, including 14 first rounders. UCLA lost its starting point guard to the NBA for the fourth consecutive season. Many of those departures were underclassmen, and this season it really created a league of teams led mostly by underclassmen. Arizona's a good example: Their 25-season streak of NCAA tournament appearances ended this season when the Wildcats went with a roster made up of one senior, one junior, six sophomores and seven freshmen. California was the preseason favorite -- and ended up winning the league -- because it was the only team that was built around upperclassmen.

But the fact is that 60 percent of the league made the NCAA tournament last season, and only 20 percent -- Washington and Cal -- this season.


Looking at the stats, Washington favors an uptempo game, winning the turnover battles, and aggressive offensive rebounding. What's their kryptonite?

On limited evidence, maybe their kryptonite is physical opponents. USC is the most physical of Pac-10 teams, and it was the only Pac-10 team to sweep its two meetings with the Huskies this season -- once by 26 points. And another of UW's less competitive games came against Georgetown, another team with size and muscle the Huskies couldn't match.

However, since opposing coaches can't simply instruct their teams to be bigger, most opposing coaches seemed to try packing their defenses tight and forcing the Huskies to shoot from the outside. However, it hasn't worked consistently, because while the Huskies don't really have a traditional post game -- or didn't until Bryan-Amaning's recent emergence -- they are a good driving and offensive rebounding team that can generally find alternative ways to get the ball into the paint. Plus, they have enough OK outside options where they can usually find someone with an acceptably hot hand. And when they don't, offensive rebounding sometimes bails them out.

Maybe this true issue is more hemlock than kryptonite -- meaning UW's real problems are usually self-inflicted. This team doesn't have great margin for error, so when they don't bring it -- when they don't hustle, defend and share the ball -- that's when they're going to have trouble.

Don, thanks very much.

Fans you can follow Don on The News Tribune blog site or via Twitter. Be sure to check in with Don throughout the week, and see our answers to his questions over there.

Will the game be on tv in my area? 6% will see the game for sure. Find out where you stand

The Marquette vs Washington game will be seen by only 6% of the country on Thursday in a "constant state" where it's the only thing being shown. And additional 25% will be able to "flex" to the game depending on what CBS does.

Of course, you can always watch online with MMOD or purchase DIRECTV's Mega March Madness and watch all the games in HD.

Jim McIlvaine talks up Marquette in the Dance

We're pleased to welcome Marquette hoops legend Jim McIlvaine back for his take on the Warriors as Buzz Williams' crew moves into the NCAA tournament once again. Rather than focusing in on the Washington Huskies we've asked Jim to set the stage for the team as they transition from Big East play into the tourney. As a reminder you can stay in touch with Jim on his own blog over at ESPN Milwaukee.

For the past two months MU has played against teams it is very familiar with. How difficult is it for a team to reboot for an unknown opponent?

I think there's enough technology and television coverage out there now, that it doesn't take long for any team in college basketball to get up to speed with their opponents. MU's video coordinator, Jake Nelp, even had video ready for me within an hour of the announcement. I also know at least two people who I plan on calling, who are fairly familiar with Washington and I'm sure our coaches have far more connections in that regard, which will give them a pretty comprehensive picture in a short amount of time.

Do you expect the West Coast travel and start time to be a factor in Marquette's performance?

The team is leaving tonight (Monday) and should be well-adjusted to the time change by game day. I'm not sure what our record is for the season, based on start times, but Coach Williams indicated to us during the Big East tournament, that the guys seem to respond well to early start times.

As a six seed MU enters the game as the favorite, a role it rarely played in high-profile Big East games. This season MU thrived as the underdog -- how do you think the team will respond to the pressure of being the favorite?

I think Coach Williams has done a very good job the past two years in keeping his players grounded and not letting rankings, predictions or other accolades interfere with the task at hand. I do think Washington feels like they have something to prove, not just for themselves, but for their conference. All season long, the Pac-10 has been getting slammed and the NCAA tournament is the best place to make a statement about the strength of your conference, especially when teams from Power-6 conferences match up head to head.

Did you see anything in the Big East Tournament that concerned you about the team heading into the NCAAs?

The only thing that has worried me all season long has been foul trouble, especially given our short bench. It has gotten to the point though, that the guys seem to have adjusted well to playing short-handed, just as they have adjusted to playing with a short lineup.

Is there one aspect of MU's game that you expect to be the biggest determinant for success in the NCAA tournament? (good or bad)

I haven't looked closely at Washington's (or anyone else's) roster yet, but the teams that seem to have given us the most trouble this year, are those that feature long, athletic players. I think our quickness and outside threat has done a good job of neutralizing teams with 6'10-7'0 post players, because they have trouble defending us at the other end of the floor. However, teams like Syracuse and West Virginia, who do have the personnel to match up with us defensively and also hurt us on the glass seem to have given us the most trouble. If an opponent can field a team that can defend dribble penetration and three-point shooters at all five spots, we'll have our hands full. Fortunately for us, that's not easy to do.

Thanks as always, Jim.

Fans be sure to check back often at Cracked Sidewalks, we have plenty of content lined up to get you ready for Thursday's game.

What folks are saying...

....about Marquette hoops this morning. I'll cut to the chase -- read Dave Heller's thorough national roundup on the Warriors matchup with the Washington Huskies.

Also, Don Ruiz from the Tacoma News Tribune checks in with Lorenzo Romar's program for their reaction to earning a bid, their seed and their opponent. The official MU site has great content as well.

By the way there's plenty of chatter on Twitter about the game, follow Cracked Sidewalks here.

Marquette earns 43rd Postseason berth (9th All-Time)

This afternoon the Marquette men's basketball team earned its 28th NCAA tournament bid overall and fifth straight. The 28 bids places MU at 12th on the all-time list of NCAA bids. The NCAA appearance also serves as Marquette's 43rd overall post season bid (NIT and NCAA) in their history, good for 9th best in college basketball Division I history.

MU received the 6th seed and will play the 11th seeded Washington Huskies on Thursday in San Jose, CA. This is the 3rd time in the last 6 years that Marquette has been sent to California to play in the first round. With the bid, the Warriors secured their 5th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament. This marks the first time the program accomplished that feat since its legendary run from 1976 through 1980.

Ken Pomeroy will enjoy this matchup, he has MU and Washington as the 28th and 29th top teams in the country according to his formula. Pomeroy predicts a 73-72 win for Marquette.

Marquette is 16-10 all time in the first round of the NCAA Tournament (MU received a first round bye in 1979). The time of the game will be announced likely tomorrow morning.