Bid Thief Rap Sheets

Storm Murphy's Hokies & Kyle Lofton's Bonnies aim to steal NCAA bids
 Photo by William Howard | Getty Images

We made it through the first week and so far no bids have been stolen. Morehead State had a chance but came up short, Loyola-Chicago insured the only MVC bubble team would be in the NCAA Tournament proper, and Santa Clara gave St. Mary's a challenge but couldn't get across the finish line.

Now we move on to the big boys. A refresher on the rules. We are looking at bid thieves who are not on the bubble but could still steal a bid. That means teams like Xavier, Rutgers, or about a third of the ACC isn't being considered. This is looking to figure out the team who isn't on anyone's radar but is well-positioned to maybe sneak into their conference final, knowing that anything can happen in a one-game setting. The main factors are how the bracket fell, the matchups before the final, and the teams who are good enough to make noise in March despite not making enough noise in the months before March.

ACC: Virginia Tech

The Hokies have the DNA to make a run. Stylistically, they play very slow and are excellent shooting threes (#4 nationally). They are also on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke, which means avoiding the biggest bad until the final. They play the winner of Clemson/NC State, then if they win that would face Notre Dame, teams they went 3-1 against in the regular season. The only bad matchup on their side of the bracket is North Carolina, but the Hokies would be favored on a neutral court against anyone in the ACC not named Duke. Watch out for the Hokies, they might be the most likely bid thief in the country this week.

Big East: Butler

I'm not saying Butler will win it, but they certainly are well-positioned to do so. First of all, they are on the right side of the bracket. The three toughest teams in the league per Pomeroy are all on the opposite side of the bracket. If they can get past Xavier, they play a Providence team that they held second half leads on twice this season. In the semis, they would face either Marquette or Creighton, both teams they beat this year. Butler has also been a much better team with Bo Hodges in the lineup, so their low analytic rankings aren't as reflective of how good they've been of late. I don't expect a Big East bid thief, but if there is one, the Bulldogs are the team to do it.

Big 10: None

I don't buy anyone in that league going 5 wins in 5 days. The way this tournament is structured, it's just not realistic to predict anyone outside the top-9 (all of which are at least bubble teams) cutting nets.

Big 12: Kansas State

This is a huge mountain to climb, but if anyone in the Big 12 can do it, it's the Purple Kittens. Their side of the bracket features West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, and TCU. K-State beat all of those teams this season except Kansas, and they squandered a 17-point second half lead against the league's #1 seed in Manhattan. The Wildcats also have a tendency to play in close games, going 2-7 in games decided by one possession. If they can stay close and their luck normalizes a bit, this team could sneak into an autobid.

Pac-12: Colorado

This league produced a bid thief last year and it seems very possible this year as only three teams are safely in the field. Colorado opens play with the winner between the Oregon schools, both of whom they have defeated this year. Most likely Arizona awaits if they win, with Arizona State and Stanford the other possibilities. Collectively, the Buffalos went 7-3 against the teams on their side of the bracket, securing at least one win over each team. There's no one they haven't already beaten on their path to the final. Colorado has also won seven of their last eight, so they come in hot, with a win over top-seeded Arizona included in that stretch.

SEC: None

The double-bye format here makes it very difficult to see any shocking teams come through. The most likely candidates are the 7-10 seeds, but they collectively went 3-13 against the top three teams on their respective sides of the bracket, with no one winning more than one such game. I can't see any of them doubling that on short rest.

Mountain West: UNLV

The Running Rebels went 4-1 against teams not named Boise State on their side of the bracket, so they can play with these guys. The Broncos would be a tough impediment to make the final, but UNLV did have a second half lead against BSU in their home game earlier this season. Add in that UNLV will be playing this tourney on their home court and there's a real chance they could spoil a bubble team's week.

American: Wichita State

I think a bid thief here is unlikely, but if anyone can pull off a Shocker in this tournament, it's Wichita. WSU went 3-0 against their first and second round opponents, so a semifinal is certainly within reach. If they get there, the biggest challenge would potentially be Memphis. While I don't like the matchup for the Shockers, it's a better chance than anyone on the other side of the bracket would have with Houston.

Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies have fallen off the bubble, but it's not impossible they could make a surprise run to an autobid. They get a double-bye and their first opponent will be one of a St. Louis/La Salle/St. Joseph's trio that went 0-5 against St. Bonaventure this year. That would put them into a likely semifinal with Davidson, who beat them by 5 in their only meeting this year. The Bonnies could definitely be a team to watch on Selection Sunday, especially as they would steal that bid just hours before the Field of 68 Reveal.

 

At this point of the season, it's mostly teams playing for seeding. The bubble has shrunk considerably and we are including only 5 teams that have any possibility of coming in from the outside. The Last Four In are definitely still at risk, and could be knocked out either by losing their first conference tourney game, especially if there are bid thieves that shrink the field. Let's continue with the current S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-ARIZONA 4-KENTUCKY

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-VILLANOVA 6-Kansas 5-Auburn

3-Seeds: 9-Tennessee 10-PURDUE 11-Texas Tech 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Providence 14-Wisconsin 13-Ucla

5-Seeds: 17-Arkansas 18-St. Mary's 19-Alabama 20-HOUSTON

6-Seeds: 24-Iowa 23-Usc 22-Texas 21-Lsu

7-Seeds: 25-Ohio State 26-COLORADO STATE 27-Seton Hall 28-San Diego State

8-Seeds: 32-North Carolina 31-Michigan State 30-Marquette 29-MURRAY STATE

9-Seeds: 33-Boise State 34-Iowa State 35-San Francisco 36-Memphis

10-Seeds: 40-DAVIDSON 39-Miami 38-Tcu 37-Wake Forest

11-Seeds: 41-Creighton 42-Michigan 43-Vcu 44-Xavier 45-Wyoming

12-Seeds: 50-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-Notre Dame 46-Smu

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-TOLEDO 53-IONA 54-VERMONT

14-Seeds: 58-UC IRVINE 57-WAGNER 56-PRINCETON 55-NEW MEXICO STATE

15-Seeds: 59-LONGWOOD 60-JACKSONVILLE STATE 61-COLGATE 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-SOUTHERN 67-NORTHERN KENTUCKY 66-NICHOLLS 65-NORFOLK STATE 64-GEORGIA STATE 63-DELAWARE

 

Last Four Byes: VCU, Creighton, Michigan, Wake Forest

Last Four In: Xavier, Wyoming, Smu, Notre Dame

 

Not Dead Yet: Rutgers, Florida, Indiana, BYU, Oklahoma

Marquette Dreams and Nightmares

 Oscar Tshiebwe goes at Walker Kessler
Photo by Butch Dill | AP Photo

The regular season is about to wrap up and Marquette seems to be settling in to their seeding. This team likely has a ceiling of a 7-seed and floor of a 10-seed. With that in mind, we decided to dig into the different scenarios and look at which teams Marquette fans should be excited to see in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament and which ones might mean a short stay in the Madness. For first round opponents, we looked at teams from the 8-seeds to Dayton and for the second round we looked at teams on the top three seed lines.

There were four main factors we considered. The first is Pick and Roll defense, because the majority of Marquette's offense (and nearly everything Tyler Kolek is praised for) comes from pick and roll, and the team has struggled with teams like Creighton and Butler that do well taking away pick and roll. The second is offensive rebounding rate, as Marquette's biggest defensive liability is giving up second chances and Marquette has struggled with teams like Connecticut and UCLA that are effective on the offensive glass. The third is offensive turnover rate, because Marquette has also struggled with teams like Wisconsin and St. Bonaventure that don't beat themselves with turnovers. The final factor considered was the presence of a potentially dominant big man. Marquette has struggled with the likes of Adama Sanogo and in two games turned Ryan Kalkbrenner into a star.

While none of these factors guarantee victory or defeat, the better teams are at Marquette's weaknesses the more likely we'll see a matchup problem that leads to an early exit, and the more Marquette is able to exploit opponent weaknesses, the more likely the team can make a deeper NCAA run. As we always hear, March is about matchups, so let's see who we want to match up with and who we want to avoid.

Opening Game

10-Seed Dream: Miami - Get excited if this is the draw. Miami is terrible at pick and roll defense, ranked #225, and worse at offensive rebounding, ranked #315. The Hurricanes have the ideal big man combo for opponents, Sam Waardenburg is efficient but his low usage makes him less effective, while his backup Anthony Walker is higher usage but low efficiency. It's a manageable front court. They don't turn the ball over much, ranked #7, so it's not all seashells and balloons, but this is a great matchup.

10-Seed Nightmare: Davidson - In general, the 10-seed matchups are pretty decent for Marquette, but Davidson is probably the toughest of them. They are elite at not turning the ball over, ranked #24 nationally, and Luka Brajkovic is a stretch-5 matchup nightmare that is a high-efficiency big who is great on the boards and shoots 42.3% from deep. Add in that Bob McKillop's offense is one of the toughest to prepare for on short notice and Davidson is a team I'd rather see playing elsewhere in their opener. On the upside, they don't defend pick and roll well, ranked #278, and aren't a good offensive rebounding team, ranked #292.

9-Seed Dream: Michigan State - The storyline here will clearly be around a certain letter writer, but this is desirable for more than a narrative. Sparty is a fine matchup as they are only average at pick and roll defense, ranked #69, and offensive rebounding, ranked #84. The real upside is they turn it over frequently, ranked #260, and their best big, Marcus Bingham, isn't getting enough minutes to be a game changer.

9 Seed Nightmare: North Carolina - The biggest problem here is Armando Bacot and the size UNC has available to them. Bacot has played at an All-American level and can play alongside another big body in Brady Manek. They are an average offensive rebounding team, rankedl #99, and also in turnover rate, ranked #70, so not much for Marquette to exploit there. UNC's weakness is pick and roll defense, ranked #214, so they aren't a true nightmare, but they're the worst on this line.

8-Seed Dream: Colorado State - While the Rams don't turn it over, ranked #12 in turnover rate, they are poor at pick and roll defense, ranked #170, and abysmal at offensive rebounding, ranked #339. While David Roddy is a versatile matchup difficulty, the 6'6" big spends as much time at the 4 as the 3 and they really don't have anyone in the mold of the players that have really hurt Marquette.

8-Seed Nightmare: Murray State - The good news is they don't have Ja Morant. The bad news is they do have KJ Williams, who would have every opportunity to become a household name if he played Marquette. The Racers aren't elite in pick and roll defense, ranked #93, or offensive turnover rate, ranked #81, but they are good enough that they aren't areas easy to exploit. They are an excellent offensive rebounding team, ranked #13. That is largely because of Williams, who can score, rebound, block shots, and even step out to hit threes.

7-Seed Dream: Boise State - Nothing Boise does would particularly bother Marquette. They are pretty average in pick and roll defense (#108), offensive rebounding (#71), and offensive turnover rate (#148). Center Mladen Armus is the lowest efficiency player in their rotation and is turnover prone. It wouldn't be an easy matchup, but if Marquette is on the 10-side of a 7/10 matchup, this is the team we want to see.

7-Seed Nightmare: USC -  This is a tough one. USC is a great offensive rebounding team, ranked #19 and anchored by Isaiah Mobley, who would be a pain for this defense. They also don't have any glaring weaknesses playing into Marquette's favor, ranked #143 in pick and roll defense and #81 in offensive turnover rate. The hope would be that maybe they are a paper tiger propped up by a soft schedule, but there is a lot to be concerned about with the Trojans.

 

Second Round

2-Seed Dream: Kansas - This isn't a great matchup, but we're talking about 2-seeds, so what do you expect? Kansas is mediocre against pick and roll, ranked #81, and is poor in offensive turnover rate at #153. They are a great offensive rebounding team, ranked #25, and have a potent big man in David McCormick, but his hit-or-miss nature makes him more desirable than the front lines of Duke or Auburn.

2-Seed Nightmare: Auburn - There's no good points about playing Auburn. Their pick and roll defense at #52 and offensive turnover rate at #63 aren't excellent, but they're good enough to be problematic, while they are excellent rebounding at #33 and have a dominant big in Walker Kessler backed up by a near equally effective Dylan Cardwell.

1-Seed Dream: Baylor - Of all the teams Marquette might see to get to the Sweet 16, Baylor just might be the most attractive. The biggest positives are the turn the ball over too much, ranked #187 in offensive turnover rate, and don't have a dominant big with the injury to Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua that also shortened a rotation that has already been injury plagued. Their pick and roll defense, ranked #70, is only average. While they are very good at offensive rebounding, ranked #7, they have been below their season average percent in every game since JTT was injured.

1-Seed Nightmare: Kentucky - Oh hell no. This is the worst matchup in the entire country for Marquette. From their #38 ranked pick and roll defense to their #1 ranked offensive rebounding rate to the likely National Player of the Year, the monstrous Oscar Tshiebwe, in the middle, there is nothing good about playing Kentucky. The biggest spot to exploit is their still respectable #66 offensive turnover rank. No good can come of this matchup.

Before we get to the S-Curve, a few notes. First, I have made a change to the "Last Four Byes" methodology. I do selection and seeding separately. I will continue to put the last four selected teams into Dayton, but everyone else is seeded on slightly different criteria than why they are selected. It's the reason a team like VCU is, in my opinion, safely in, but shows up on the 11-line. Their resume score (main factor in selection) makes them safe, but their average resume/metric score drags them back. The "Last Four In" at the bottom are the teams I actually selected last, so even if they appear higher than teams seeded below them, their spots are the most precarious. Finally, we are close enough to Selection Sunday that the "Next Four Out" are teams I do not believe can play their way in anymore, which is why they are in red text.

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-ARIZONA 4-KENTUCKY

2-Seeds: 8-VILLANOVA 7-Auburn 6-Kansas 5-DUKE

3-Seeds: 9-Tennessee 10-Wisconsin 11-PURDUE 12-Texas Tech

4-Seeds: 16-HOUSTON 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Illinois

5-Seeds: 17-Arkansas 18-Texas 19-Connecticut 20-St. Mary's

6-Seeds: 24-Iowa 23-Lsu 22-Ohio State 21-Alabama

7-Seeds: 25-Seton Hall 26-Usc 27-SAN DIEGO STATE 28-Boise State

8-Seeds: 32-MURRAY STATE 31-Iowa State 30-Tcu 29-Colorado State

9-Seeds: 33-Marquette 34-Michigan State 35-San Francisco 36-North Carolina

10-Seeds: 40-Wyoming 39-Wake Forest 38-Miami 37-DAVIDSON

11-Seeds: 41-Vcu 42-Creighton 43-Xavier 44-Smu 45-Memphis

12-Seeds: 50-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-Michigan 46-Notre Dame

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-IONA 53-TOLEDO 54-VERMONT

14-Seeds: 58-UC IRVINE 57-PRINCETON 56-NEW MEXICO STATE 55-TOWSON

15-Seeds: 59-WAGNER 60-LIBERTY 61-TEXAS STATE 62-COLGATE

16-Seeds: 68-TEXAS SOUTHERN 67-NICHOLLS 66-CLEVELAND STATE 65-NORFOLK STATE 64-LONGWOOD 63-MONTANA STATE

 

Last Four Byes: Xavier, Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Last Four In: SMU, Memphis, Notre Dame, Michigan

First Four Out: Rutgers, BYU, Florida, Indiana

Next Four Out: Dayton, Belmont, Virginia Tech, Oregon

Casing the Bid Thieves

Ja Morant's Murray State were bid thieves in 2019

Photo by Sam Owens | Courier & Press

Conference Tournaments begin this week, which means everyone is on the lookout for bid thieves. For bubble teams, bid thieves are their worst nightmare because it means the number of at-large teams in the field effectively shrinks. For bracketologists, bid thieves make the job much easier, especially when the bid thief is someone on the bubble, because you know for certain that team will be in the field and it's one less resume you have to critically review for inclusion..

We're going to look at the three leagues whose conference tournaments start this week and could have potential bid thieves that complicate matters for at-large teams. While the bubble teams are the easiest ones to point to, we are focusing on potential bid thieves that are not on the bubble and would really upset the apple cart if they cut down nets. The teams selected are ones that are most likely able to reach a final, because once you get there, teams like Georgetown and Oregon State showed last year that anything can happen.

WCC: Santa Clara

Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and San Francisco are all in good shape to earn at-large bids. While BYU is hoping to sneak in, the team to watch as a potential bid thief here is Santa Clara. They will be heavy favorites in their opener, having beat possible opponents San Diego, Pepperdine, and Portland all by double-digits within the past month. They also split the season series with semifinal opponent St. Mary's, so making a final is very realistic.

Ohio Valley: Morehead State

Murray State will be dancing, and while the popular pick here will be Belmont, I don't see it. Instead, Morehead is the pick. They get a first round bye and swept their potential opening opponents, Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech, by an average of 14.3 ppg. They would then face Belmont but have won three of the last four against the Bruins with the only loss coming on the road by 1 point. If they get to the Final against Murray State, they led the Racers 49-40 with about 5 minutes to play before falling apart down the stretch, so they've shown they can play with the league's best. The defending OVC champs have the goods to repeat.

Missouri Valley: Missouri State

While we have Loyola Chicago in the field as the highest ranked NET team in the Valley, I think they would be left out if they don't win Arch Madness. Since the resume metrics were added to the team sheet, no team with a resume average below 52.5 has earned at at-large bid and the Ramblers currently sit at 57 with only one win over a team projected to be in the field. But if a non-Loyola team wins the tournament and puts Loyola into that at-large mix, the one likely to do it is Missouri State. The Bears are on the easier side of the bracket as they went 8-0 against the four teams they would have to play to reach the final. They also notched a win over Loyola in the regular season, so there's no reason to think they can't do that again.

Next week, we will look at the potential bid thieves from the remaining conference tournaments. For now, we'll continue on with the S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-Kansas 4-ARIZONA

2-Seeds: 8-PURDUE 7-DUKE 6-Auburn 7-KENTUCKY

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Tennessee 11-Texas Tech 12-Wisconsin

4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Illinois

5-Seeds: 17-Arkansas 18-Alabama 19-HOUSTON 20-Texas

6-Seeds: 24-Usc 23-Ohio State 22-Lsu 21-St. Mary's

7-Seeds: 25-Michigan State 26-Seton Hall 27-Iowa State 28-Marquette

8-Seeds: 32-MURRAY STATE 31-Boise State 30-Colorado State 29-Iowa

9-Seeds: 33-SAN DIEGO STATE 34-San Francisco 35-Tcu 36-Xavier

10-Seeds: 40-Vcu 39-DAVIDSON 38-Wyoming 37-Creighton

11-Seeds: 41-Notre Dame 42-Miami 43-North Carolina 44-Michigan 45-Smu

12-Seeds: 50-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-Byu 46-Memphis

13-Seeds: 51-IONA 52-CHATTANOOGA 53-TOWSON 54-VERMONT

14-Seeds: 58-UC IRVINE 57-PRINCETON 56-NEW MEXICO STATE 55-TOLEDO

15-Seeds: 59-TEXAS STATE 60-LIBERTY 61-WAGNER 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-SOUTHERN 67-NICHOLLS 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-OAKLAND 64-LONGWOOD 63-COLGATE

Last Four Byes: VCU, Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina

Last Four In: SMU, Michigan, Memphis, BYU

First Four Out: Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Florida

Next Four Out: Rutgers, Oregon, Dayton, Oklahoma

Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 4

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

Atlantic-10: 2

NMD was a success, now on to #DLTD week

Welcome back #mubb, we hope you enjoyed National Marquette Day! We are back to talk about the game against Butler and any conclusions that we can draw from such a game. We then turn to the week ahead which features a frisky DePaul team and a St Johns match up that will be frenetic at worst. We close out the pod looking ahead to BET and Selection Sunday. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/5rsf4e/ScrambledEggs_Editted_022722.mp3

Squishy Bubbles

Kyle Lofton looks to help St. Bonaventure shoot their way back to the bubble
 Photo from St. Bonaventure Athletics

The back and forth of the bubble this season has been wild. Marquette is fortunately not in the bubble mix currently and, despite fan worries, I'm not worried about them falling into that scrum. Marquette's 7 Quadrant 1 wins are more than double that of anyone on the bubble except Rutgers (5) and Kansas State (4). Marquette's resume average of 30 is also better than anyone in that area and is a better determinant of selection than the other metrics. While recent form hasn't been great, this is still a team comfortably in the field as a single-digit seed and closer to a protected seed than a trip to Dayton.

So what are some of the factors we are looking at when it comes to the bubble and Selection? Let's take a look at a few of the big factors the Selection Committee has looked at in the past to help determine who will be in and out come Selection Sunday.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: When it comes to the field as a whole, teams can make it in with a weak NCSOS. USC has a sub-300 NCSOS this year but appears to be comfortably in, but it's different when it comes to teams on the bubble. 2019 NC State is the best example of this and the reason why teams like Indiana (NCSOS 318) and Wake Forest (NCSOS 334) are on the outside of today's S-Curve. When you don't have many wins over the field and your resume is built heavily on Q4 non-conference wins, the Selection Committee doesn't like putting those teams in.

Resume Average: While everyone is focused on the NET and the predictive metrics like kenpom and Sagarin, no team has ever made the field with a Resume average (KPI and Strength of Record) worse than 52.5. In our current field, the lowest Resume average we have in is Memphis at 53, but this is a danger sign, particularly for teams like Florida and Oregon who have a Resume average at 60 or worse. Rutgers, Indiana, Dayton, and Oklahoma are other teams popping up in the Bracket Matrix that are below the 52.5 barrier and might be in more trouble than bracketologists think.

Win/Loss Gap: While Michigan State got in with a 15-12 record last year, that +3 difference between wins and losses was the lowest in quite awhile and that was likely only because of the COVID shortened season. It's rare for teams to get in without at least 18 wins and a gap of +5 between wins and losses. There are a number of teams this would impact, but particularly the Big 12 bubble teams like Kansas State (14-13), Oklahoma (14-14), and West Virginia (14-14). They have great top end wins, but the record disparity really hurts them. It's a big reason why I have long thought 6 bids for the Big 12 was more likely than the 8 some were predicting. The teams that have been most rewarded in that league are teams like Iowa State and TCU that are still trending towards bids even though they are likely to go 7-11 or worse in league play, just like the three mentioned above.

Big Wins Offset Bad Losses: Teams like Rutgers and Dayton have 3+ losses out of Quadrants 1+2, but teams like 2021 Colorado and 2019 Arizona State and Baylor proved you can get in with some bad blemishes on the resume. I'm hesitant with Dayton considering their losses are all in Quadrant 4, but the Kansas win for the Flyers and the Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin wins for Rutgers are enough that those teams shouldn't be ruled out strictly because of the losses.

Net Bottom Line: 2019 St. John's at 73 and 2021 Wichita State at 72 are the two lowest teams in the NET to get into the field. That doesn't bode well for Rutgers (83) and St. Bonaventure (84) who we have just outside the field. That said, if either team can get some big margin wins that move those numbers, they could find themselves on the right side of the bubble.

Let's look at the full S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-KANSAS 4-Auburn

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 5-Baylor

3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech 10-VILLANOVA 11-Tennessee 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Wisconsin

5-Seeds: 17-Texas 18-HOUSTON 19-Alabama 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-Lsu 23-St. Mary's 22-Usc 21-Arkansas

7-Seeds: 25-Marquette 26-Boise State 27-Michigan State 28-Iowa State

8-Seeds: 32-San Francisco 31-Iowa 30-Seton Hall 29-COLORADO STATE

9-Seeds: 33-Xavier 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Miami 36-Creighton

10-Seeds: 40-Michigan 39-San Diego State 38-Tcu 37-Wyoming

11-Seeds: 41-Notre Dame 42-Smu 43-North Carolina 44-Vcu 45-Byu 46-Memphis

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAVIDSON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO

13-Seeds: 51-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 52-CHATTANOOGA 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-VERMONT

14-Seeds: 58-PRINCETON 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-TOLEDO

15-Seeds: 59-UC IRVINE 60-TEXAS STATE 61-LIBERTY 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-COLGATE 63-OAKLAND

 

Last Four Byes: San Diego State, Michigan, Notre Dame, SMU

Last Four In: North Carolina, VCU, BYU, Memphis

First Four Out: Florida, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Indiana, Belmont, Oregon, Dayton

The legs are wobbly and we answer Scrambled Questions

Marquette went 1-1 this past week but it doesn't feel quite that good. So we're here to talk about the #mubb week that was and the mixed bag of results against Georgetown and Creighton. We then pivot to your questions and answer most of them seriously. We close out the pod with National Marquette Day game predictions. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/48vcag/ScrambledEggs_Editted_022322.mp3

Lessons Revealed

Drew Timme reminding everyone Gonzaga is #1
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images

The NCAA released their Top-16 seeds on Saturday to give us an "As It Stands" snapshot of where they are so far. Cracked Sidewalks had 15 of the 16 teams correct, with our #17 Texas edging our #16 LSU (more on the Tigers later). We also had Duke and Villanova flipped between the 2/3 lines and Illinois and Wisconsin flipped between our 3/4 lines. There are a number of lessons to be learned from the Reveal. Let's break it down.

The 1-Seeds: We correctly predicted Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, and Kansas on the 1-line. There are three things of note here. First, Gonzaga did not have the top-end wins of other teams, but their metric dominance pushed them to the top of the field. However Auburn over Arizona and Kansas over Baylor and Kentucky indicates resume is the tiebreaker when it's close. Further down the bracket, that likely bodes well for teams like Iowa and San Diego State with dominant (compared to the bubble) metrics and teams like Creighton and Rutgers (great top-line wins) when it comes to those final spots.

Numbers Alone Aren't Enough: Houston had the highest ever NCAA metric to be left out of the Top-16. While we expected that, it could send a message to teams like North Carolina and Wake Forest that quality metrics without wins over the field won't get you the benefit of the doubt.

Head-to-Head: In the past, head to head has not been considered a major factor. However this time we did hear mention of Illinois' win over Wisconsin and UCLA's common opponent record compared to Providence. These seem to be only used as tiebreakers when teams are evaluated closely, but on the bubble teams like Oklahoma and BYU that have a number of wins over other bubble competitors could be the difference maker.

Injuries (don't) Matter: Injuries to Illinois stars were mentioned, but I don't buy that as the reason Illinois made the 3-line as much as the head-to-head mentioned above. Why? LSU, which was the only team we had in the Reveal that wasn't in (our #17, Texas, trumped LSU) also wasn't even mentioned as one of the teams close to the protected seeds. Entering the Reveal with Xavier Pinson playing 20+ minutes, LSU was 17-1 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee and their only loss to Auburn. When he wasn't fully healthy, they were 2-6. Their record was still close enough to warrant a 5/6 seed without him, but that they weren't even mentioned seems to bode ill for teams like VCU or Florida that might be hoping for a bad stretch without a star player to be viewed more favorably by the Selection Committee.

Using the Top-16 as a reset, here's our updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 6-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Texas 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Wisconsin

5-Seeds: 17-HOUSTON 18-Alabama 19-Connecticut 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-St. Mary's 23-Arkansas 22-Lsu 21-Usc

7-Seeds: 25-Michigan State 26-Marquette 27-BOISE STATE 28-Iowa State

8-Seeds: 32-Xavier 31-Iowa 30-Seton Hall 29-San Francisco

9-Seeds: 33-Colorado State 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Wake Forest

10-Seeds: 40-Notre Dame 39-Creighton 38-Miami 37-Tcu

11-Seeds: 41-San Diego State 42-North Carolina 43-Smu 44-Michigan 45-Byu 46-Vcu

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-DAVIDSON

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-COLGATE 63-TEXAS STATE

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Notre Dame, San Diego State, North Carolina

Last Four In: SMU, Michigan, BYU, VCU

First Four Out: Memphis, Florida, Indiana, Rutgers

Next Four Out: Kansas State, Belmont, Oregon, Oklahoma

Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

A-10: 2

Predicting the Top-16 Reveal

Marquette was last included in the 2019 Top-16 Reveal
Screenshot from CBS Sports

This Saturday will bring the NCAA's official Top-16 Reveal. When even the Selection Committee is doing bracketology, it means we're getting to the serious part of the season. We decided to dig into the history of the Reveal, using all of the data from the first five Reveals, including both NET and RPI data as both were the relevant metrics of their time. First, here are the teams year by year, in descending order from the Top Overall Seed at the Reveal to the 16th and final Revealed team. The teams below the gap are teams that were ranked in the Top-16 of the current metric at the time but were left out:

	2021 Reveal	NET	2020 Reveal	NET	2019 Reveal	NET	2018 Reveal	RPI	2017 Reveal	RPI
1	Gonzaga	2	Baylor	2	Duke	3	Virginia	1	Villanova	2
2	Baylor	1	Kansas	4	Tennessee	4	Villanova	2	Kansas	3
3	Michigan	3	Gonzaga	3	Virginia	1	Xavier	3	Baylor	1
4	Ohio State	7	San Diego State	1	Gonzaga	2	Purdue	9	Gonzaga	11
5	Illinois	4	Duke	6	Kentucky	5	Auburn	5	UNC	4
6	Villanova	9	Dayton	5	Michigan	6	Kansas	6	Florida State	6
7	Alabama	10	Louisville	7	UNC	8	Duke	8	Louisville	5
8	Houston	5	West Virginia	8	Michigan St	9	Cincinnati	11	Oregon	10
9	Virginia	6	Maryland	10	Purdue	11	Clemson	4	Arizona	9
10	West Virginia	17	Florida State	14	Kansas	18	Texas Tech	14	Virginia	14
11	Tennessee	11	Seton Hall	13	Houston	7	Michigan St	21	Florida	7
12	Oklahoma	20	Villanova	15	Marquette	21	UNC	13	Kentucky	12
13	Iowa	8	Auburn	16	Iowa State	13	Tennessee	10	Butler	8
14	Texas Tech	15	Oregon	19	Nevada	14	Ohio State	22	West Virginia	36
15	Texas	21	Butler	11	Louisville	15	Arizona	15	UCLA	21
16	Missouri	34	Michigan St	12	Wisconsin	12	Oklahoma	19	Duke	17
	Colorado	12	Arizona	9	Virginia Tech	10	Rhode Island	7	Xavier	13
	Loyola Chi	13			Texas Tech	16	Nevada	12	Cincinnati	15
	Colgate	14					Seton Hall	16	Creighton	16
	USC	16

Here are our key takeaways:

The Reveal Reinforces the Current Metric: The first thing that stands out is the number of teams ranked in the top-16 of the RPI/NET that are also in the Top-16 Reveal. 67/80 (83.8%) teams in past reveals were in the top-16 of the current metric. When you go outside the top-16, 78/80 (97.5%) were still in the top-22, so it's rare for teams to show up below that ranking. In the instances teams outside did show up, they were massive outliers in the closest alternate metric. For RPI #36 West Virginia, given a 4-seed in 2017, they were ranked #3 in kenpom at the time. For NET #34 Missouri, given a 4-seed in 2021, they were ranked #2 in RPI at the time. If you aren't in the top-22 of the current metric, you had better be elite in the companion metric.

The Top Two Seeds Lines Are Top-11 Teams: This has happened without fail. There have been a handful of double-digit teams to crack that top-8, but none lower than 11th. Worth watching that NET as there are some outliers perceived to be fighting for the 2-line. The Top-11 teams are also pretty safe when it comes to inclusion. 52/55 (94.5%) teams ranked in the top-11 were included in the Reveal, whereas just 15/25 (60%) of the teams from 12-16 were included. This calculus played in when evaluating Villanova, Texas Tech, and Duke for the final 2-seed.

Only Elite Mid-Majors Need Apply: Only 10/80 (12.5%) teams from outside the traditional Top-6 conferences have been included in the Reveal. 6/10 (66.7%) were ranked in the top-5 of the current metric. The exceptions had immaculate records, including 2017 Gonzaga (#11 in RPI, 25-0), 2018 Cincinnati (#11 in RPI, 22-2), 2019 Houston (#7 in NET, 22-1) and 2019 Nevada (#14 in NET, 22-1). If you had 3+ losses outside the Top-6 leagues, you were left out. And obviously Colgate in 2021, who was a COVID scheduling NET outlier.

Replacement Teams Are From Top-6 Leagues: There have been 13 teams from outside the Top-16 of the current metric to be included and all of them came from one of the traditional Top-6 leagues. Don't expect the Selection Committee to look to a mid-major if they throw a curveball.

We have a little discussion on our selections for the Top-16 Reveal. In accordance with past history, Gonzaga is the only team from outside the traditional Top-6 leagues. 14/16 teams selected were also in the Top-16 of NET, with the exceptions being #20 Wisconsin and #31 Providence. Here is commentary on a line-by-line basis:

1-Seeds -- Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas: The first three seem clear. Gonzaga is the top overall seed because despite the resume, their quality metrics are by far the best in the field. Both Arizona and Auburn seem like obvious picks, which left four teams for one spot. Kansas has the best average of Resume and Metric rankings and leads the nation in Q1+2 wins, which allowed them to edge out Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue for the final 1-seed.

2-Seeds -- Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova: The first three feel obvious and would more likely show up on the top line than the line below. Villanova gets the last 2-seed due to their #5 NET ranking and a better Resume+Metric Average than any team below them.

3-Seeds -- Texas Tech, Duke, Tennessee, Wisconsin: Tech and Duke were considered for the 2-line, but the metrics just didn't justify moving them up despite excellent quality wins. Tennessee's win over Kentucky helped solidify their selection here and while their Q1 isn't as good as some others, they have no losses outside Q1A. Wisconsin was on our 4-line previously, but with their NET moving up to 19 after the Indiana win, there is now precedent for them being placed this high (2021 Oklahoma, 2019 Marquette, and 2018 Michigan State were all ranked lower) and their 8 Q1 wins are second only to Baylor.

4-Seeds -- UCLA, Illinois, LSU, Providence: Both UCLA and Illinois seemed like they had to be included. Both have the numbers and enough Q1 volume to warrant inclusion without any truly bad losses. LSU does have a Q3 loss but we moved them up because no one around them has a resume that is significantly better enough without some serious blemishes. Providence sticks as the last team in. While their NET ranking doesn't seem to warrant inclusion, their single digit resume average is good enough that it seems likely they'll be included. PC fans have long said their is no comparison to their resume, but I would point to 2017 West Virginia. While they had diametrically opposite resumes (WVU had monster wins and narrow losses, PC has narrow wins and big losses), both excelled in the metric that was not the NCAA's chosen of the day. On the team sheets, WVU had the aforementioned kenpom rank of #3 while Providence has an average resume metric of 8.5.

Also considered -- Alabama, Texas, Houston: The Selection Committee always discusses a few teams that are just on the outside looking in. These three all have pros and cons. Alabama has a brilliant top-end resume and SOS, but their two Q3 losses and borderline metrics weren't good enough to put them in. Texas has similar quality and is ranked #15 in the NET, but too much of their record is puffed up by Q4 games. Houston has excellent numbers, but despite the #4 NET (which would be the highest ever left out of the Reveal) they have zero Q1 wins, zero wins over the field, and too many total losses to be included from outside a power conference.

And last...Marquette: The Golden Eagles had a legitimate chance to get in this discussion, but the loss to Butler and narrow win over Georgetown dropped their NET from 24 to 32. Had they beat Butler and held their 26-point lead against the Hoyas, they may have been able to get to the 4-line or at least been one of the alternates considered, but instead they are heading in the other direction. For now they hold on to our last 6-seed thanks to their Q1 wins, but it was a close evaluation between them and St. Mary's (the Gaels' 2-6 Q1 record just wasn't good enough). A win at Creighton so their Q1+2 record doesn't fall below .500 would be strongly advised.

Here's the entire S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-VILLANOVA 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 5-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech 10-DUKE 11-Tennessee 12-Wisconsin

4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Lsu 14-Illinois 13-Ucla

5-Seeds: 17-Alabama 18-Texas 19-HOUSTON 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-Marquette 23-Michigan State 22-Usc 21-Connecticut

7-Seeds: 25-St. Mary's 26-Arkansas 27-COLORADO STATE 28-Boise State

8-Seeds: 32-Seton Hall 31-San Francisco 30-Iowa State 29-Xavier

9-Seeds: 33-Miami 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Tcu

10-Seeds: 40-Memphis 39-Notre Dame 38-Wake Forest 37-Iowa

11-Seeds: 41-Davidson 42-Creighton 43-Byu 44-Michigan 45-Kansas State 46-San Diego State

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-SOUTH ALABAMA

 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Memphis, Davidson, Creighton

Last Four In: Byu, Michigan, Kansas State, San Diego State

First Four Out: Indiana, North Carolina, SMU, Rutgers

Next Four Out:  VCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Belmont

Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

Atlantic-10: 2

Marquette's Quadrant Breakdown

Marquette will try to avoid stepping on more rakes like the loss at Butler
 Image from The Simpsons | 20th Television

The bracket side of Cracked Sidewalks is preparing for a guest appearance on the Delphi Bracketology podcast later tonight as well as the Top-16 Reveal, so instead of digging deep into a topic, we'll talk a bit about Marquette's resume by Quadrant, including what's left on the schedule before getting to the new S-Curve. At this point, it's all about trying to not step on any more rakes.

Quadrant 1 (7-6), Remaining (1): at Creighton

Marquette is tied for third nationally in Quadrant 1 wins, behind only Baylor (9) and Kansas (8). While the game at Creighton is the only Q1 opportunity left on the schedule, the home game at Seton Hall could potentially move up to this Quadrant as the Pirates are 34 in the NET and the home cut-off is 30. At the other end, Providence could fall from Q1 to Q2 as the Friars sit exactly on the Q1 cutline at 30. Regardless, this is a very strong number, particularly as 4 of these wins are in the elite Q1A category.

Quadrant 2 (2-3), Remaining (1): at DePaul

The good news is that Marquette's two worst losses have moved up to this Quadrant as Creighton and St. Bonaventure are currently in Q2B. The roadie at DePaul is the only remaining Q2 game, though the Ole Miss win could move to this category as the Rebels are at 108 with the neutral cut-off being 100. Creighton is the game that seems most likely to fall out of this category, the Jays are 70 and the cutoff is 75.

Quadrant 3 (3-0), Remaining (2): vs Butler, vs St. John's

Marquette is solid here, with the only worry being a game from Q2 dropping to this range. Win at home and hope nothing falls so the resume doesn't have any bad losses.

Quadrant 4 (4-0), Remaining (1): vs Georgetown 

It's rare to play a Q4 game in Big East play, but here come the Hoyas. None of Marquette's current Q4 games look likely to move up, and Georgetown certainly doesn't seem to show any indications of improving by the 55 spots they would need to reach Q3 territory. The positive in this quadrant is there are no sub-300 games, which has helped give Marquette the #2 ranked Strength of Schedule nationally, which factored into us placing them on the 6 line this week.

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-KENTUCKY

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-BAYLOR 5-Kansas

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Ucla

4-Seeds: 16-HOUSTON 15-Providence 14-Wisconsin 13-Illinois

5-Seeds: 17-Lsu 18-Alabama 19-Michigan St 20-Ohio St

6-Seeds: 24-Xavier 23-Marquette 22-Connecticut 21-Texas

7-Seeds: 25-Arkansas 26-St. Mary's 27-Usc 28-Colorado St

8-Seeds: 32-Iowa 31-Boise St 30-WYOMING 29-Seton Hall

9-Seeds: 33-Tcu 34-MURRAY ST 35-San Francisco 36-Wake Forest

10-Seeds: 40-North Carolina 39-Notre Dame 38-Miami 37-Iowa St

11-Seeds: 41-Indiana 42-Oklahoma 43-Creighton 44-Memphis 45-Byu 46-Oregon

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA ST 53-TOLEDO 54-NEW MEXICO ST

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-LIBERTY 60-UC IRVINE 61-PRINCETON 62-MONTANA ST

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS ST 67-SOUTHERN 66-GARDNER WEBB 65-NORFOLK ST 64-NAVY 63-SOUTH ALABAMA

 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma

Last Four In: Creighton, Memphis, BYU, Oregon

First Four Out: San Diego State, Kansas State, Davidson, Belmont

Next Four Out: Michigan, West Virginia, SMU, Rutgers

Also Considered: Florida, Mississippi St, Virginia Tech, VCU, St. Louis, UAB, Virginia, Washington St, Texas A&M, Utah St, Santa Clara, Cincinnati

A bad week to be sure, but let's take it in stride

Well, the joys of college basketball generally and #mubb specifically is they zig when we zag. The team had a rough week losing one game that was somewhat expected and another that was definitely unexpected. So we talk about the week in total and especially everyone taking their foot off the gas against Butler. We also spend time talking about the defense and what is driving the lagging performance of late. We then look ahead to the week to come and predict whether it will bring success or more pain. As always, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/t5btmp/ScrambledEggs_Editted_021322.mp3