"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, July 04, 2010

Does Jamil Wilson = 30 wins in 2012?

Last year Syracuse and West Virginia were the two Big East teams who hit the 30-win mark, and the addition of Jamil Wilson gives MU the opportunity to do the same and be a true contender in 2012.

MU projects to win at least 29 games in 2012 based on the 10 players who will have eligibility left, and would be projected to top 30 wins with even one additional 4-star recruit for next season. As shown in past posts, the following is the table of the average progression of Big East players based on their star-ratings:

How many wins to expect based on a player's year and stars

0-2 Stars0.

The addition of 4-star forward Jamil Wilson joining as a sophomore skyrockets MUs projected wins for the next few years, even assuming he is only an "average" 4-star as rated by Rivals, rather than a player who just missed being a 5-star as suggested by the other services. Based on stars, season, and Win Credits in the past year from returning players, MU projects to equal the 25 win performance of 2008 and 2009 in the upcoming season:

Blue 2.4 + Butler 5.8 + Buycks 2.5 + Cadougan 1.7 + Jae Crowder 2.1 + Frozena 0.0 + Fulce 1.1 + Gardner 0.3 + DJO 4.8 + Jones 1.7 + Otule 0.6 + Smith 0.8 + Williams 1.3 = 25.1 projected wins in 2011. If Jamil were given eligibility this season, then MU would project to win 28 games this season.

However, the addition of Jamil after sitting out a transfer year projects to put MU in the national elite:

Blue 4.7 + Cadougan 3.1 + Crowder 3.2 + Gardner 1.2 + DJO 5.3 + Jones 3.1 + Otule 0.8 + Smith 2.0 + Williams 2.3 + Wilson 3.1 = 28.8 projected wins in 2012 PLUS WHATEVER THE THREE NEW RECRUITS WOULD ADD.

Buzz has now put together four big JC stars (DJO, Butler, Buycks and Crowder) with five players rated 4-star or higher (Blue, Cadougan, Jones, Wilson and Williams). Even the two new 3-stars are looking a lot like four stars as Reggie Smith just missing a 4-star rating to be one of top few 3-stars in the country, and Davante Gardner was selected ahead of 4-star players for the Virginia All-State team.

The Win Credits system projected 19 wins last season, which MU exceeded by three wins. But 2012 always looked like the huge opportunity, since 5-star players like Vander Blue usually take over their sophomore season. However, the addition of Jamil Wilson truly gives the team a shot at their first Big East title and a deep NCAA run.

While this system gives a good measurement of the impact of players year-to-year, it also does not account for the team balance that MU now has. Subjective factors such as reports of Chris Otule's big improvement and the fact that Gardner finally gives MU size and a guy who can catch the ball inside and convert from 12 feet or the foul line are not factored into the projected wins.

Nor is the fact that MU looked like world beaters in the Disney classic last year due to their ability to steal the ball at will, only to have to slow games down dramatically due to the bench being so short. With another 6-foot-7 star in Wilson, MU now has a team with ample height across the front line in various combinations, as well as the depth to rotate two lines that can press full court or half without the threat of collapsing like they did against Florida State last year.

The following is the updated table with the additional of Jamil:

Projected Wins from each player from 2010 to 2013 seasons

Player2010 actual2010 proj201120122013
Maurice Acker, Grad G, 0 Stars2.70.8GGG
Vander Blue, Fr G, 5 StarsHSHS2.44.76.3
Jimmy Butler, Sr. G-F, 0 Stars5.32.05.8GG
Dwight Buycks, Sr. G, 3 Stars1.72.12.5GG
Junior Cadougan, So. G, 4 Stars0.0RS1.73.14.3
Jae Crowder, Jr. F, 4 StarsJCJC2.13.2G
David Cubillan, Grad G, 0 Stars1.71.3GGG
Robert Frozena, Sr. G, 0 Stars0.00.00.0GG
Joseph Fulce, Sr. F, 3 Stars0.50.91.1GG
Lazar Hayward, Grad F, 4 Stars6.66.4GGG
Davante Gardner, Fr.. C, 3 StarsHSHS0.31.22.1
Darius Johnson-Odom, Jr. G, 3 Stars3.
Jamail Jones, Fr. F, 4 StarsHSHS1.73.14.3
Jeronne Maymon, So. G-F, 4 Stars0.01.7TTT
Youssaupha Mbao, So. C, 3 Stars0.00.3TTT
Chris Otule, Jr. C, 2 Stars0.
Reggie Smith, Fr. G, 3 StarsHSHS0.82.03.0
Erik Williams, So. F, 4 Stars0.
Jamil Wilson, So. F, 4 StarsOreOreRS3.14.3
Projected Wins on known roster22.

Key = a number indicates how many wins the player is projected to give MU that season, HS is a player in high school that year, G indicates graduated by that year, T indicates transferred out of MU, RS indicates red shirt season, JC indicates in Junior College that season. Each + sign by the season projection indicates additional wins for that many open scholarships to be signed, so the 28.8 indicates that is the total projected wins for the 10 players listed with three additional players still to be added to the rooster.

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