DJO was dominant on offense and Vander Blue on defense, but the story today was that someone forgot to tell Marquette’s three freshman that when you visit a top 10 opponent, you have less than a 7 percent chance of winning. The odds get a lot worse when your starting point guard can’t play, and even worse when you can't go for steals after being whistled for four fouls in the first five minutes against the team that is the WORST team in the country at drawing fouls.
In the past decade, Marquette was just above the national average – going 1-11 when facing a Top 10 team on the road (based on www.kenpom) until upsetting UConn last year. Now Marquette has done it twice in a row – and the freshman were a big part of it.
|vs. Top 10 on road||Rnk||Day||Season||Result||MU||Opp|
|Wisconsin||3||Sat Dec 3||2012||W||61||54|
|Connecticut||10||Thu Feb 24||2011||W||74||67|
|Pittsburgh||4||Sat Jan 8||2011||L||81||89|
|Syracuse||4||Sat Jan 23||2010||L||71||76|
|West Virginia||8||Tue Dec 29||2010||L||62||63|
|Wisconsin||9||Sat Dec 12||2010||L||63||72|
|Pittsburgh||5||Wed Mar 4||2009||L||75||90|
|Louisville||4||Sun Mar 1||2009||L||58||62|
|Louisville||6||Thu Jan 17||2008||L||51||71|
|Wisconsin||5||Sat Dec 8||2008||W||81||76|
|Georgetown||5||Sat Feb 10||2007||L||58||76|
|Villanova||7||Sat Feb 4||2006||L||67||72|
|Louisville||5||Wed Jan 26||2005||L||52||99|
|Wisconsin||5||Sat Dec 20||2004||L||59||63|
Marquette's showings have been so impressive that Sagarin's predictor, which had MU as a 7-point underdog today, will most likely show Marquette as the favorite in EVERY GAME the rest of the season. Obviously they will not win every game, because if you have an 80% chance to win 10 games in a row, you usually go 8-2, but this is a new level never achieved by MU before.
And for the freshman:
Derrick Wilson started in front of the suspended Junior Cadougan, played 20 minutes without a turnover, meaning the former football star now has 2 turnovers in 102 minutes. When All-American candidate Jordan Taylor tried to drive to cut into Marquette’s 41-33 lead with 13:29 to go, Wilson took a charge in the open court to send Taylor to the bench with his 4th foul.
With Jae Crowder in foul trouble, Todd Mayo was able to get in 20 minutes. When Wisconsin cut it to 41-40, Mayo drove, was cut off by Badger big men, and kissed a lay-up off the top of the glass. When Wisconsin was forced to press with 20 seconds left, Taylor tried to guard Mayo, but Mayo left him in the dust for a long in-bound pass and two-handed monster jam to make it 61-51 with 14 points from Mayo – GAME OVER. A meaningless three-pointer by Wisconsin at the end made the score sound respectable for a team that had only lost AT UNC by 3 points – indicating they likely would have beaten the Tar Heels in Madison (the average point swing from home to away is 8 points).
Juan Anderson, the third freshman, had only played 7 minutes all year, but with only 10 Warriors suited up he went in for 7 more eminutes and grabbed 5 rebounds to help MU DOMINATE the boards 41-28 in a reversal of last year.
If Wisconsin had not hit the final meaningless three-pointer, than the win would have marked the third time THIS SEASON that Marquette has had one of the Top 10 performance of the DECADE. As posted earlier, a Game Score of more than 100 means that the team likely could have beaten anyone in the country that night – and MU has done that 3 times in 7 games this year after doing it just 20 times in more than 200 games starting with the Final Four team.
Here are the top 20 performances of the decade based on a simplified game version of the Sagarin predictor model (Margin of victory, plus or minus 4 for home venue, plus opponent’s predictor value):
Top 20 Marquette performances in past decade based on Game Score Method:
|1||Mount St. Mary's||Fri Nov 11||2012||54||66||-4||116|
|2||Oklahoma St.||Tue Nov 20||2008||30||82||0||112|
|3||Detroit||Tue Nov 14||2007||42||73||-4||111|
|4||Northern Iowa||Fri Nov 28||2009||30||79||0||109|
|5||St. John's||Wed Mar 11||2009||29||76||4||109|
|6||Kentucky||Sat Mar 29||2003||14||94||0||108|
|7||West Virginia||Sat Jan 10||2009||22||90||-4||108|
|8||Cincinnati||Sun Jan 4||2009||34||78||-4||108|
|9||Mississippi||Sun Nov 20||2012||30||78||0||108|
|10||Notre Dame||Mon Jan 10||2011||22||89||-4||107|
|11||Notre Dame||Sat Jan 12||2008||26||85||-4||107|
|12||Seton Hall||Tue Feb 12||2008||25||77||4||106|
|13||Providence||Thu Jan 3||2008||29||80||-4||105|
|14||South Florida||Sat Jan 11||2003||33||76||-4||105|
|15||Coppin St.||Fri Dec 21||2008||47||62||-4||105|
|16||Wisconsin||Sat Dec 3||2012||7||93||4||104|
|17||Providence||Sun Jan 17||2010||30||78||-4||104|
|18||Wisconsin Milwaukee||Fri Nov 30||2008||35||73||-4||104|
|19||Connecticut||Tue Jan 3||2006||15||91||-4||102|
|20||Louisville||Mon Jan 15||2007||9||89||4||102|