"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Best 200 basketball players 18 days before Selection Sunday

Allen laid out the new potential NCAA bracket yesterday, and once it is actually set I will post the value of every player in the tournament by team to help you fill out your brackets. For now, I’ve listed the Top 200 players to date, with notes at the bottom on how well the Value Add system has fared based on the four questions Sports Illustrated asked about in August.

One item to stress, these are not measures of NBA potential - which is a whole different process I use - but of exactly how many points a player has added to his team's scores and taken away from the opponents' scores.

During my weekly appearance on ESPN Auburn I’ve stressed that the SEC has the most one-sided MVP race with Anthony Davis, and I’ve had a couple of previous blogs on Cracked Sidewalks on the back-and-forth between Jae Crowder and Kevin Jones in the top two spots in the Big East. However, it wasn’t until the engineer finished the program and I ran the whole country yesterday that I realized those were actually the three most valuable players in the country, despite the Big Ten’s dominant play this year that has resulted in them having five of the 10 Most Valuable Players in the country.




RnkPlayersTeamHtYrOffDefTot
1Anthony DavisKentucky6'10"Fr6.7-5.412.2
2Jae CrowderMarquette6'6"Sr6-4.210.2
3Kevin JonesWest Virginia6'8"Sr8.3-1.59.8
4Damian LillardWeberSt.6'2"Jr8.719.2
5Cody ZellerIndiana6'11"Fr6.8-28.8
6Jordan TaylorWisconsin6'1"Sr4.9-1.38.7
7Thomas RobinsonKansas6'9"Jr4.6-4.18.7
8Jared SullingerOhio St.6'9"So5.1-3.58.6
9John ShurnaNorthwestern6'9"Sr7.3-18.3
10Aaron CraftOhio St.6'2"So2.3-2.48.3
11Shabazz NapierConnecticut6'0"So3.9-18
12Jeffery TaylorVanderbilt6'7"Sr5.6-1.27.9
13Draymond GreenMichigan St.6'7"Sr4-3.87.8
14Marcus DenmonMissouri6'3"Sr7.2-0.57.7
15Doug McDermottCreighton6'7"So7.607.6
16Mike ScottVirginia6'8"Sr5.9-1.77.6
17Will BartonMemphis6'6"So5.3-2.17.4
18Matthew DellavedovaSt.Mary's6'4"Jr5.307.3
19Trevor RelefordAlabama6'0"So3.3-2.57.3
20Nate WoltersSouthDakotaSt.6'4"Jr5.6-0.17.2
21Scott MachadoIona6'1"Sr5.4-0.37.2
22Kenny BoyntonFlorida6'2"Jr7.107.1
23Tyler ZellerNorth Carolina7'0"Sr4.8-2.27
24Jeff WitheyKansas7'0"Jr3.8-3.16.9
25Dominique MorrisonOralRoberts6'6"Sr6.806.8
26John JenkinsVanderbilt6'4"Jr6.706.7
27Jack CooleyNotre Dame6'9"Jr4.7-26.7
28C.J. McCollumLehigh6'3"Jr4.7-26.7
29Ken HortonCentralConnecticut6'6"Sr4.1-2.66.7
30J'Covan BrownTexas6'1"Jr6.3-0.36.6
31Tyshawn TaylorKansas6'3"Sr3.7-0.16.4
32Tu HollowayXavier6'0"Sr4.1-0.46.4
33Ryan BroekhoffValparaiso6'7"Jr5.4-0.86.3
34Khalif WyattTemple6'4"Jr4.9-1.46.3
35Kris JosephSyracuse6'7"Sr4.4-1.96.3
36Maalik WaynsVillanova6'2"Jr4.206.2
37Ricardo RatliffeMissouri6'8"Sr5.3-0.96.2
38Mike MoserNevadaLasVegas6'8"So2.5-3.66.2
39Isaiah CanaanMurraySt.6'0"Jr5.9-0.26.1
40Seth CurryDuke6'2"Jr4.3-0.46.1
41Jeremy LambConnecticut6'5"So5.4-0.86.1
42Quincy AcyBaylor6'7"Sr3.8-2.36.1
43Arsalan KazemiRice6'7"Jr3.5-2.76.1
44Robbie HummelPurdue6'8"Sr4.7-1.36
45Larry AndersonLongBeachSt.6'5"Sr4.7-1.36
46Jason ClarkGeorgetown6'2"Sr3.5-2.55.9
47Gorgui DiengLouisville6'10"So2.4-3.55.9
48Langston GallowaySaintJoseph's6'2"So5.7-0.15.8
49Scoop JardineSyracuse6'2"Sr2.4-1.45.8
50Chase TapleySanDiegoSt.6'2"Jr3.8-2.15.8
51Reggie HamiltonOakland5'11"Sr6.225.7
52Doron LambKentucky6'4"So5.705.7
53Dion WaitersSyracuse6'4"So3.3-2.45.7
54Terrence JonesKentucky6'9"So3.1-2.65.7
55John HensonNorth Carolina6'10"Jr2.6-3.15.7
56Austin RiversDuke6'4"Fr3.105.6
57Michael GloverIona6'7"Sr4.6-15.6
58Robert CovingtonTennesseeSt.6'8"Jr4.2-1.45.6
59Rodney McGruderKansas St.6'4"Jr3.9-1.75.6
60Terell ParksWesternIllinois6'7"Jr3.3-2.35.6
61Michael Kidd-GilchristKentucky6'7"Fr3.3-2.45.6
62D'Aundray BrownClevelandSt.6'4"Sr2.4-3.15.6
63Brian ConklinSt.Louis6'6"Sr4.8-0.75.5
64Ryan KellyDuke6'11"Jr4.3-1.15.5
65Garrett StutzWichitaSt.7'0"Sr4-1.55.5
66Leonard WashingtonWyoming6'7"Jr2.6-2.95.5
67Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown6'8"Jr4-1.45.4
68Drew GordonNewMexico6'9"Sr1.8-3.65.4
69Fuquan EdwinSeton Hall6'6"So1.8-3.75.4
70Ashton GibbsPittsburgh6'2"Sr3.805.3
71Meyers LeonardIllinois7'1"So3.2-2.15.3
72Otto PorterGeorgetown6'8"Fr2.6-2.75.3
73Matt GatensIowa6'5"Sr5.205.2
74Justin HamiltonLouisiana St.6'11"Jr3.9-1.35.2
75Mason PlumleeDuke6'10"Jr2.8-2.55.2
76Dee BostMississippi St.6'2"Sr3.105.1
77Zack NovakMichigan6'4"Sr4.7-0.45.1
78Jared CunninghamOregon St.6'4"Jr3.3-0.85.1
79Donte PooleMurraySt.6'3"Sr3.6-1.65.1
80Pierce HornungColoradoSt.6'5"Jr3.5-1.65.1
81Erving WalkerFlorida5'8"Sr505
82Dorian GreenColoradoSt.6'2"Jr505
83Noah HartsockBrighamYoung6'8"Sr4.6-0.45
84Kerron JohnsonBelmont6'1"Jr4.5-0.55
85Erick GreenVirginia Tech6'3"Jr4.3-0.75
86Allen CrabbeCalifornia6'6"So4.1-15
87Keith ClantonCentralFlorida6'8"Jr2.9-25
88Rob JonesSt.Mary's6'6"Sr2.8-2.25
89Jared BerggrenWisconsin6'10"Jr2.3-2.85
90Harrison BarnesNorth Carolina6'8"So4.2-0.74.9
91Mike MuscalaBucknell6'11"Jr4.2-0.74.9
92Sean KilpatrickCincinnati6'4"So4-0.94.9
93Bradley BealFlorida6'3"Fr3.5-1.44.9
94Andrew NicholsonSt.Bonaventure6'9"Sr3.2-1.74.9
95Bernard JamesFlorida St.6'10"Sr1.8-3.14.9
96Deshaun ThomasOhio St.6'7"So4.804.8
97Kendall MarshallNorth Carolina6'3"So2.2-0.14.8
98Justin CobbsCalifornia6'2"So4.4-0.44.8
99Jerian GrantNotre Dame6'5"So4.3-0.54.8
100C.J. AikenSaintJoseph's6'9"So3.4-1.44.8
101Rodney WilliamsMinnesota6'7"Jr3.1-1.74.8
102Terrell StoglinMaryland6'1"So4.704.7
103Andre YoungClemson5'9"Sr4.6-0.24.7
104Kim EnglishMissouri6'6"Sr4.3-0.34.7
105Seth TuttleNorthernIowa6'8"Fr4-0.64.7
106Darius Johnson-OdomMarquette6'2"Sr4.1-0.74.7
107Tyreek DurenLaSalle6'0"So3.6-1.14.7
108Ryan EvansWisconsin6'6"Jr2-2.84.7
109Herb PopeSeton Hall6'8"Sr1.6-3.14.7
110Devon CollierOregon St.6'7"So4.604.6
111Stephen HoltSt.Mary's6'4"So4.2-0.44.6
112Jake CohenDavidson6'1"Jr4.1-0.54.6
113Pierre JacksonBaylor5'10"Jr3.7-14.6
114Kyle KuricLouisville6'4"Sr3.4-1.24.6
115Terrence RossWashington6'6"So3.2-1.44.6
116C.J. FairSyracuse6'8"So2.9-1.74.6
117Scott WoodNorth Carolina St.6'6"Jr4.504.5
118Drew CrawfordNorthwestern6'5"Jr4.504.5
119Deonte BurtonNevada6'1"So4.504.5
120Neil WatsonSouthernMississippi5'11"So4.504.5
121Joe RaglandWichitaSt.6'0"Sr4.504.5
122D'Angelo HarrisonSt. John's6'3"Fr4.3-0.24.5
123Tim KamczycClevelandSt.6'7"Jr3.7-0.84.5
124Tim FrazierPenn St.6'1"Jr3.6-0.94.5
125Wendell McKinesNewMexicoSt.6'6"Sr3.6-0.94.5
126Dennis TinnonMarshall6'8"Jr3.3-1.24.5
127Phil PresseyMissouri5'10"So3.2-1.34.5
128Solomon HillArizona6'6"Jr3.1-1.44.5
129Luke MartinezWyoming6'4"Jr3.1-1.44.5
130Michael DixonMissouri6'1"Jr4.404.4
131Ceola ClarkWesternIllinois6'3"Sr4.3-0.14.4
132Travis RelefordKansas6'5"Jr3.7-0.74.4
133Chris SmithLouisville6'2"Sr3.7-0.74.4
134Torye PelhamSouthernMississippi6'6"Sr3.2-1.24.4
135Victor OladipoIndiana6'5"So2.9-1.54.4
136Javon McCreaBuffalo6'6"So2.8-1.54.4
137Mitchell WattBuffalo6'10"Sr2.8-1.64.4
138LaRon DendyMiddleTennessee6'9"Sr2.2-2.24.4
139Anton GradyClevelandSt.6'8"Fr2-2.44.4
140Moe HarklessSt. John's6'8"Fr1.8-2.64.4
141Arnett MoultrieMississippi St.6'11"Jr4.2-0.24.3
142Chace StanbackNevadaLasVegas6'8"Sr4.1-0.24.3
143Durand ScottMiami FL6'4"Jr3.8-0.54.3
144Tyler MurrayWagner6'5"Sr3.6-0.74.3
145Kenny KadjiMiami FL6'11"Jr3.3-14.3
146James EnnisLongBeachSt.6'7"Jr3-1.34.3
147Tanner SmithClemson6'5"Sr2.7-1.54.3
148Royce O'NealeDenver6'5"Fr2.7-1.54.3
149Tony MitchellNorthTexas6'8"Fr2.5-1.84.3
150Ray McCallumDetroit6'1" 3.714.2
151Keiton PageOklahoma St.5'9"Sr4.204.2
152Dave SobolewskiNorthwestern6'1"Fr4.204.2
153Tony SnellNewMexico6'7"So3.8-0.44.2
154Sheldon McClellanTexas6'4"Fr3.8-0.54.2
155Taylor BraunNorthDakotaSt.6'7"So3.7-0.54.2
156Keith ApplingMichigan St.6'1"So3.3-0.94.2
157Quincy MillerBaylor6'9"Fr3.2-14.2
158Josh OwensStanford6'8"Sr3.2-1.14.2
159Juvonte ReddicVirginiaCommonwealth6'9"So2.3-1.94.2
160Damontre HarrisSouth Carolina6'9"So2.2-24.2
161Brian StaffordDenver6'4"Sr4.104.1
162Ike AzotamQuinnipiac6'7"So3.7-0.44.1
163Patric YoungFlorida6'9"So3.6-0.64.1
164Tarik BlackMemphis6'8"So3.1-14.1
165Kentavious Caldwell-PopeGeorgia6'4"Fr3-1.14.1
166Josh GasserWisconsin6'3"So2.9-1.14.1
167Branden DawsonMichigan St.6'6"Fr2.6-1.54.1
168Tony MitchellAlabama6'6"Jr1.6-2.44.1
169Jordan HullsIndiana6'0"Jr404
170Jordan TheodoreSeton Hall6'0"Sr3.4-0.74
171Brandon TricheSyracuse6'4"Jr2.9-1.14
172Michael SnaerFlorida St.6'5"Jr2.7-1.44
173Jorge GutierrezCalifornia6'3"Sr2.4-1.64
174Zeke MarshallAkron7'0"Jr2.4-1.64
175Brady HeslipBaylor6'2"So3.903.9
176Rahlir Hollis-JeffersonTemple6'6"Jr3.1-0.73.9
177T.J. RobinsonLongBeachSt.6'8"Sr2.6-1.43.9
178Earl PettisLaSalle6'5"Sr2.5-1.43.9
179Elias HarrisGonzaga6'7"Jr2.4-1.53.9
180Jackie CarmichaelIllinoisSt.6'9"Jr2.3-1.63.9
181James SoutherlandSyracuse6'8"Jr2.1-1.83.9
182JaMychal GreenAlabama6'8"Sr2.1-1.83.9
183Evan SmotryczMichigan6'9"So2.2-1.83.9
184Fab MeloSyracuse7'0"So1.8-2.13.9
185Henry SimsGeorgetown6'10"Sr1.8-2.23.9
186E.J. SinglerOregon6'6"Jr3.803.8
187Laurent RivardHarvard6'5"So3.803.8
188J.P. PrimmNCAsheville6'1" 3.7-0.13.8
189Robert SacreGonzaga7'0"Sr3.1-0.73.8
190Cody EllisSt.Louis6'8" 2.9-0.83.8
191Chris UdofiaDenver6'6"So2.9-0.93.8
192Justin HawkinsNevadaLasVegas6'3"Jr2.9-0.93.8
193Davante GardnerMarquette6'8"So2.8-13.8
194William BufordOhio St.6'6"Sr2.8-13.8
195Perry JonesBaylor6'11"So2.7-1.13.8
196Kendall WilliamsNewMexico6'3" 2.6-1.23.8
197Miles PlumleeDuke6'10"Sr2.5-1.33.8
198Kyle WeemsMissouriSt.6'6"Sr2.4-1.43.8
199JT SultonMiddleTennessee6'8"Jr2.3-1.53.8
200Marcos KnightMiddleTennessee6'2"Jr1.9-1.93.8


Point Guards and Perimeter Defense

The Value Add system as introduced last year was purely numbers driven, but I have made three adjustments for the three major items that cannot be measured by player stats.
1. While point guards get credit for assists, they should really get about an extra 1% just for bringing the ball up the court 50 times a game and setting up the offense. In the future I’d like to give every starting point guard at least 1% extra, but for today I have simply given the top 5 point guards in the country a +2.5%, the next best 10 a +2% and the next best 15 a +1.5% based almost exclusively on the Top 30 as evaluated by CBS Sports.

2. Perimeter defense results in bad shots and a lower eFG%, but a good perimeter defender doesn’t usually get a steal for good on-ball defense, unlike a good defender at the hoop who gets plenty of defensive rebounds and blocked shots. For now, I simply awarded an extra 1% for the players identified by CBS Sports as the best perimeter defenders in the country.

3. The lowest defensive rating in the system was a 0.0%, but now if someone gets a 0.0% and his team is giving up a high 1.05 points per trip he gets a +1.0 on defense (gives up points), while a 1.10 equals +2.0 etc.

How has the system fared?

A couple of notes from the four observations Sports Illustrated made about the Value Add system when I unveiled it last year:




SI said based on the Value Add System:What has actually happened this season?
Jordan Taylor … needs to be considered … for preseason national player of the year votesJordan is right back in the mix in the Top 10, but even winning Big Ten POY honors will be very tough because he is one of five Big Ten players in the top 10 as the conference has emerged as the top conference this year. Obviously when Jae Crowder was ranked as the 48th best returning player at that time, I couldn’t have dreamed he would now calculate as the 2nd best player in American in the final weeks of the season.
Lest you think the 6-6 (Central Connecticut’s Ken) Horton's (No. 8) standing on this list is inflated because he plays in a small conference, it should be noted that Pudner's fomula … means is that he'd theoretically be able to enhance a major-conference team's offense by 5.06 percent. Despite continuing to have no support from a terrible team, in his three road games against Top 75 teams (vs. Michigan State, Northwestern and UMass) Horton has averaged 16 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals per game and is back in the Top 30 of all players at any D1 level for a 2nd straight year.
Vanderbilt's offense is going to be insanely good ... but the Commodores still might not be a top-10 team. Despite missing their star center for much of the year has a top 20 offense (114.4 trips per game) but not a Top 20 team.
If (Bradley transfer Brandon) Wood plays at the level Pudner's formula projects … that could very well equate to a top-three finish (for Michigan State) in the Big Ten, which would exceed most pundits' expectations, including mine, and establish Value Add as a worthy way of identifying next year's sleepers.Brandon Wood has shown he could make the transition from Bradley to the Big Ten, starting for the Spartans and being one of the top 300 players in the country with a 2.7 Value Add. That has been good enough for the Spartans not only to be in the top 3 in the Big Ten, but actually in first place a week after winning by 10 at Ohio State.

9 comments:

Jaden Daly said...

Didn't Brandon Wood transfer from Valparaiso?

Jaden Daly said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Christopher M. Mackinder said...

Yes, Wood transferred from Valpo, but the initial SI statement also mentioned Bradley-to-Illinois transfer Sam Maniscalco. Simple error.

Great stuff though on this site. A MSU grad and fan at heart, Marquette has become my No. 2 team because, truth is, it looks like an MSU team in the Big East. Keep up the great work!

Robert said...

Some of the numbers don't total up correctly. Are there other factors that go into the total that are not shown in the sheet? Thanks and nice work.

Robert said...

Also, would love to see what you NBA potential list looks like at some point. Awesome site and awesome insights.

Nick said...

How is Trey Burke not on this list? He is the front runner for Big Ten freshman of the year, ahead of #5 on this list Cody Zeller, and has meant more to Michigan then any other player on the team.

Tim Blair said...

Zeller is a much more efficient and productive player. Zeller hits at 65% from the floor, while Burke is a 43% shooter -- that's a huge gap that Burke can't make up desite a decent assist rate (Zeller of course rebounds better and has a higher block%). Look at it this way, Burke has taken 89 more shots than Zeller this season and makes then at a rate that lags Zeller by 22%.

Nick said...

I will agree that Zeller is a more efficient player than Burke, but in all likelihood Burke will still win Big Ten FOTY because of the fact that he has lead Michigan to a shot at a Big Ten championship and a 3-4 seed in the tournament, while putting up impressive stats. I also feel that Burke is more crucial to Michigan's success than Novak (77 on this list) and Smotrycz (183). Based on those things i think Burke should definitely be on this list, but hey thats just my two cents.

Robert said...

This is an objective list though. The numbers are the numbers.