"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 1 of 4): Otule and Thomas give MU 10th best returning redshirts – Louisville and Notre Dame 3rd and 4th

Last night four of the top 7 Value Add players in last May's projections were on the court in the Final Four games, but the scary part was seeing how well Louisville fought Kentucky despite note yet having transfer Luke Hancock from George Mason or the injured Mike Marra.

Those two rank as the 6th and 11th best players in the country returning from a redshirt year, as they combine for a projected 7.66% Value Add from players coming back from a redshirt year. At the bottom of this post is the list of 100 players who took a red shirt this year, but are likely to have Value Add next year.

Missouri and West Virginia have the most projected Value Add from current redshirts, but right behind them are Big East foes Louisville and Notre Dame, with Marquette just a few spots back at 10th best in the country with Otule and Thomas. This post reviews the returning red shirts for every team, and this will be followed by posts on projected Value Adds for new recruits and returning players from this year’s teams – finally wrapping up with the overall projected Value Add for all 345 teams for the 2012-13 season and where Marquette ranks in the Big East and nationally.

Notre Dame gets the #1 returning player in Tim Abromaitis and with #40 Garrick Sherman ranks as the 4th best team overall, but Marquette’s combination of sharp shooter Jake Thomas (15th most valuable incoming transfer/41st best player coming back from redshirt) and Chris Otule (29th best returning player) give Marquette the 10th best Value Add from redshirted players. The following are the top 20 teams in the country:

Projected 2012-13 Value Add from current red shirts
1. Missouri 7.99
2. West Virginia 7.95
3. Louisville 7.66
4. Notre Dame 7.01
5. Iowa St. 6.32
6. Minnesota 5.51
7. Temple 5.15
8. Butler 4.41
9. Utah 4.07
10. Marquette 3.58
11. North Carolina 3.54
12. California 3.29
13. Oregon 3.12
14. Kentucky 2.99
15. Hofstra 2.89
16. Nebraska 2.69
17. Southern Cal 2.58
18. Rutgers 2.56
19. Canisius 1.98
20. Drake 1.97

Last May we did a similar piece noting that Jamil Wilson projected as the 23rd best transfer, but sharp-shooter Jake Thomas ranks 8 spots higher based on lighting it up at South Dakota. Remember, Value Add is adjusted for competition, so his ability to average putting up seven treys a game and still maintain a 39% accuracy from beyond the arc for two years truly gives the perfect complement to Otule’s power defense inside – whether he comes in to bury a couple of shots a game or is utilized more to destroy zones.

I laid out that Value Add indicated MU should be almost at the same level next year, but has a real shot in 2014 to go to the Final Four. Of course, that was in the vacuum of looking at MU only, so we will see how we actually stack up once all 345 teams’ Value Add is tallied.

After compiling these three lists of projected Value Adds, we will sum up in a fourth piece where all of the teams across the country rate in cumulative Value Add.

Some other players you may note from the table below are players who could have ended up at Marquette in Aaric Murray (#3, chose West Virginia), D.J Newbill (#20) and Korie Lucious (#23), as well as former MU players Trevor Mbakwe (#2) and Erik Williams (#74).

This does not include any new players who could transfer immediately, such as huge impact players such as Alex Oriakhi of UConn and Trent Lockett of Arizona State.

I always appreciate any corrections to my database, so please email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com if something is wrong on this sheet, or just looks off to you. College Hoops Update does a great job of keeping up a list of projected rosters, so if you aren’t sure, check that out by clicking here and if you catch something, I will update this list.

Here is the table. There weren’t quite 100 players who projected to add value, so I included a couple at 0% who were close to round out the list at 100:

RnkFNAmeLnameHeightTeamOffDefTotYearOld school
1TimAbromaitis6' 8"Notre Dame5.510.005.51Sr 
2TrevorMbakwe6' 8"Minnesota3.52-1.995.51Sr 
3AaricMurray6' 10"West Virginia3.67-1.375.04JrXavier
4WillClyburn6' 7"Iowa St.3.67-1.355.02SrUtah
5RotneiClarke6' 0"Butler4.4104.41Sr 
6LukeHancock6' 5"Louisville3-1.154.15JrGeorge Mason
7AaronDotson6' 4"Utah2.77-1.294.07JrLouisiana St.
8LaurenceBowers6' 8"Missouri3.04-0.994.03Sr 
9ScootieRandall6' 6"Temple2.86-1.083.94Sr 
10LeslieMcDonald6' 4"North Carolina1.21-2.333.54Jr 
11MikeMarra6' 4"Louisville0.39-3.123.51Jr 
12RickyKreklow6' 6"California2.95-0.343.29SoMissouri
13OluAshaolu6' 7"Oregon1.10-2.023.12SrLouisianaTech
14JuwanStaten6' 0"West Virginia0.00-2.912.91SoDayton
15JamalCoombs-McDaniel6' 7"Hofstra1.13-1.762.89Jr 
16MarcTrasolini6' 9"Santa Clara2.8902.89Sr 
17RyanHarrow5' 11"Kentucky2.600.002.60So 
18KourtneyRoberson6' 9"TexasA&M1.42-1.142.56So 
19NickMinnerath6' 8"Detroit2.5302.53Jr 
20D.J.Newbill6' 4"Penn St.2.4902.49So 
21BrandonWood6' 2"MICHIGAN St.2.4802.48JrValparaiso
22JabariBrown6' 4"Missouri2.400.002.40Fr 
23WallyJudge6' 9"Rutgers2.300.002.30Jr 
24LarryDrew6' 2"UCLA0.05-2.242.29Sr 
25RamonGalloway6' 1"LaSalle0.88-1.412.29JrSouthCarolina
26KellyOlynyk6' 11"Gonzaga1.01-1.192.20Jr 
27MannyAtkins6' 7"Georgia St.1.18-1.012.19Jr 
28KhemBirch6' 8"Pittsburgh2.100.002.10FrUNLV
29ChrisOtule6' 11"Marquette0.01-2.082.09Jr 
30DwaynePolee6' 7"San Diego St.1.44-0.632.07SoSt. John's
31SethVanDeest6' 11"Drake1.9701.97Jr 
32AndreAlmeida6' 11"Nebraska0-1.961.96Sr 
33StaceyPoole6' 5"GeorgiaTech1.800.001.80SoKentucky
34DarrellWilliams6' 8"Oklahoma St.0.89-0.911.80Sr 
35ScottSuggs6' 6"Washington1.7601.76Sr 
36BrysonPope6' 6"KENT St.0.00-1.661.66JrTulsa
37LorneJackson6' 2"Pepperdine1.601.60Sr 
38JioFontan6' 0"Southern California0.58-0.941.52JrFordham
39MalcolmArmstead6' 0"Wichita St.1.500.001.50Sr 
40GarrickSherman6' 10"NotreDame0.43-1.071.50Jr 
41JakeThomas6' 3"Marquette1.490.001.49JrSouth Dakota
42EarnestRoss6' 5"Missouri1.4601.46Jr 
43WillFelder6' 6"MIAMI-OHIO0.00-1.411.41JrSt. Francis PA
44IsaiahArmwood6' 7"GeorgeWashington1.400.001.40SoVillanova
45KorieLucious5' 11"Iowa St.1.300.001.30SrMichiganSt.
46DeShawnDockery5' 11"TENNESSEE St.0.00-1.251.25JrFarleighDickinson
47DaltonPepper6' 5"Temple0.69-0.521.21Jr 
48LamontJones6' 0"IONA1.1501.15SoArizona
49IsaacSosa6' 3"Canisius1.101.10SrCentralFlorida
50AriStewart6' 7"Southern California0.00-1.061.06JrWake Forest
51JoshMcCoy6' 4"MISSOURI- St.LOUIS1.0101.01SoClevelandState
52SamPrescott6' 3"Mount St. Mary's0.00-1.011.01JrMarist
53VeeSanford6' 3"Dayton0.73-0.250.98Jr 
54MichaelBizoukas6' 1"MISSOURI St.0.00-0.920.92SrDePaul
55MangistoArop6' 5"INDIANA St.0.31-0.60.91SoGonzaga
56BrianOliver6' 6"Seton Hall0.900.000.90Jr 
57FreddyAsprilla6' 10"Canisius0-0.880.88Sr 
58MarshawnPowell6' 7"Arkansas0.8700.87Jr 
59KendrickWashington6' 7"Arkansas St.0.11-0.720.83JrHouston
60GeneTeague6' 9"Seton Hall0.22-0.600.82JrSouthern Illinois
61AmathM'Baye6' 9"OKLAHOMA0.800.000.80Jr 
62EshaunteJones6' 4"NORTHERNKENTUCKY0.04-0.760.80SoNebraska
63CharlesCarmouche6' 2"Memphis0.75-0.050.80Sr 
64RayGallegos6' 3"Nebraska0-0.730.73Jr 
65BryceJones6' 5"UNLV0.00-0.720.72SoSouthern California
66RoyceWoolridge6' 2"Washington St.0.700.000.70SoKansas
67AntoineProctor6' 3"MONTANA-BILLINGS0.00-0.690.69SrSacramento St.
68GlennBryant6' 7"EasternMichigan0.6900.69Jr 
69ChrisPelcher6' 10"NEWHAMPSHIRE0.6800.68SoIona
70SampsonCarter6' 8"Massachusetts0.6200.62Jr 
71AkeemRichmond6' 1"EastCarolina0.6100.61Jr 
72JulianGamble6' 9"Miami0.6100.61Sr 
73NikolaCerina6' 9"Northwestern0.00-0.600.60JrTexas Christian
74ErikWilliams6' 7"Sam Houston St.0.36-0.150.52JrMarquette
75ZachBohannon6' 7"Wisconsin0.4200.42Jr 
76JamalBranch6' 3"St. John's0.400.000.40FrTexasA&M
77MarkoPetrovic6' 3"XAVIER0.3900.39FrSanFrancisco
78MauriceCreek6' 5"Indiana0.3900.39Jr 
79JonHood6' 7"Kentucky0-0.390.39Jr 
80J'misonMorgan6' 10"Baylor0.03-0.340.37Sr 
81RileyBarker6' 9"Portland0.3200.32So 
82ColtonIverson6' 10"Colorado St.0.02-0.290.31Sr 
83NoruwaAgho6' 3"Columbia0.2800.28Jr 
84AustinCarroll6' 3"Rutgers0.2600.26So 
85JordanJahr6' 6"Evansville0.2500.25So 
86RogerFranklin6' 5"NorthTexas0-0.220.22Jr 
87J.J.Richardson6' 8"HOUSTON0.200.000.20SoArizona
88DariusLeonard6' 9"CAMPBELL0.1800.18FrKentState
89JoeLatas6' 11"HOUSTONBAPTIST0.1800.18JrClevelandState
90HaydenHumes6' 8"ILLINOISCHICAGO0.1500.15FrToledo
91KeionBell6' 3"Missouri0.100.10Sr 
92WillRegan6' 9"BUFFALO0.00-0.070.07SoVirginia
93EvanGordon6' 2"Arizona St.0.0600.06Jr 
94DesmarJackson6' 5"Southern Illinois0.0600.06Jr 
95Dre’Winston6' 1"PORTLAND St.0.00-0.030.03SoWashington St.
96JonHorford6' 9"Michigan0.00-0.010.01So 
97AmathM’Baye6' 9"OKLAHOMA0.000.000.00SoArizona
98HooperVint6' 10"Texas-ElPaso0.000.000.00Fr 
99CedrickMcAfee6' 3"Auburn0.000.000.00Fr 
100BenMcLemore6' 5"Kansas0.000.000.00Fr

1 comment:

John said...

Brandon Wood (Michigan State) and Lamont Jones (Iona) both shouldn't be on this list. Both played this season after being granted waivers (Wood due to having finished his degree at Valpo and Jones due to a family situation.