"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Top 50 College Basketball Teams in 2014 (Way, way too early, but objective)

In an overly enthusiastic moment during a back-and-forth on a blog a while back, I gave Marquette a 15% chance of winning a national title in 2014 if their roster held firm.  Today I punched up the www.valueaddbasketball.com database for a more scientific look at how the teams stack up for the 2013-14 college basketball season.  Let's start by looking at Marquette's roster - and keep in mind that while Value Add is a very precise measure, Projected Value for future seasons is of course just an estimate that can be dramatically changed by who works out harder in the offseason.

Marquette 2014 Roster With Projected Value Adds

2014 RosterHtClass2014 VA
Blue, Vander6-f-44 Sr4.01
Gardner, Davante6-f-84 Sr5.54
Otule, Chris6-f-114 Sr2.42
Thomas, Jake6-f-34 Sr1.73
Wilson, Jamil6-f-74 Sr4.07
Anderson, Juan6-f-63 Jr3.19
Mayo, Todd6-f-33 Jr3.99
Taylor, TJ6-f-33 Jr2.31
Wilson, Derrick6-f-03 Jr1.20
Ferguson, Jamal6-f-32 So2.95
Taylor, Steve6-f-72 So3.46
Burton, Deonte6-f-51 Fr2.88
Wilson, Duane6-f-31 Fr1.89
2014 Total Projection39.64
Average Freshman Class3.40
Total Projected 2014 Value43.04

This really might be the most balanced roster in the country, because while no player approaches the 9% level of a typical All-American, all 13 players are easily above the 1% that indicates a strong 6th, 7th or 8th player in a rotation.  (3% or better is typically a good BCS starter)

The Top 50 teams of 2014

In a vacuum that looks great, but this is the first time I've been able to see how Marquette stacks up against the other 340 teams out there.  While obviously this is a moving target, the following are the things you need to track to have a measure of how good each team should be:

1. The projected Value Add of each player on a team based on the standard percent increase from a freshman becoming a sophomore, etc.  For incoming freshmen, the average Value Add of past freshman since 2006 (e.g. the average freshman ranked as high as Deonte Burton is now has produced 2.88% Value Add, so that is his estimate).  The fact that so much of MUs roster has two years to improve, gives it one of the best projected Value Adds in the country, though the young Texas team has the best at 45.25.

2. The Value of Transfers.  TJ McConnell has quietly been one of the 15 most valuable players in the country the past two years at Duquesne, and after his transfer year he adds to Arizona's incredible roster to give them the highest projected Value Add.  Obviously there will be many more transfers between now and then, but since Value Add gives each player a specific value, if Rodney Hood signs with Louisville we simply add his 5.63 and Louisville moves up from 35th place (25.42) to 16th place (31.05).

3. Who will leave for the NBA after the 2013 season?  I have NOT added the value of any player projected to go in the 2013 draft to a team's total, but I have listed them in case they stay.  So if James McAdoo and PJ Hairston decide they want to stay at UNC they move into 2nd in the country, and if Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin decide they want to stay at Kentucky then the Wilcats become the favorite.  But normally players go once they are good enough to make it. Marquette and UConn are the only two teams in the country to put five SENIORS in the NBA in this database (2006-2011), which does not count Travis Diener (2005).  Hopefully DJO and Jae Crowder will make it 7 seniors in 7 years, and 8 in 8 with Diener.  Usually a player leaves when they are good enough to make the NBA - and no team in the country has been able to watch as many future NBA players play through their senior year as Marquette.

4. Finally, since most of the 2013 freshman class is not yet signed, I have credited each team with the average freshman value it has put together each season.  During the seven years in the database, John Calipari has averaged recruiting a freshman class that has put 12.1 Value Add in a season, way more than any other team.  Marquette just averages 3.40 in freshman Value Add each class, the 40th best total in the country.  Therefore I gave each team their "average" freshman class of the last seven years in a second column, then added two together in the next column.

The following is the resulting top 50 for the 2014 season.  My "15% chance of a title" was definitely high, but objectively Marquette does look like the 7th best team in the country two years from now.  Providence and Iowa project as the other potential huge jumps.  Odds are not all three really contend with the national powers, but this far out we are just looking at potential, and the potential is there for another Final Four.

Hopefully none of the rumors of changing internal academic policies chasing players out of the program are true, because Buzz has this team lined up to give us a shot.  Here is how the Top 50 stacks up:

Rnk2014 TeamProj VAAve. FrTotalAssume gone to NBA
1Texas45.259.3054.55Kabongo, Myck 6.43
2Arizona46.315.0051.31No projected 2013 draftees
3Kentucky36.7412.1048.84Noel, Nerlens 10/Goodwin, Archie 7.34
4UCLA40.195.2045.39Muhammad, Shabazz 10.5
5Maryland40.553.4043.95Len, Alex 2.11
6Providence39.773.7043.47No projected 2013 draftees
7Marquette39.643.4043.04No projected 2013 draftees
8Iowa39.183.6042.78No projected 2013 draftees
9Connecticut36.396.3042.69No projected 2013 draftees
10North Carolina34.627.4042.02McAdoo, James 6.44/Hairston, PJ 5.86
11Michigan St.37.373.8041.17Dawson, Branden 8.48
12Memphis35.735.3041.03Thomas, Adonis 5.37
13Ohio St.32.058.4040.45Thomas, Deshaun 9.56
14Indiana34.905.4040.30Zeller, Cody 14.5/Oladipo, Victor 6.65
15California34.803.5038.30No projected 2013 draftees
16Kansas31.245.1036.34No projected 2013 draftees
17Georgetown30.505.0035.50Porter, Otto 12.08
18Michigan30.714.4035.11Burke, Trey 10.72/Hardaway, Tim 5.1
19Stanford34.710.0034.71No projected 2013 draftees
20Notre Dame33.900.0033.90No projected 2013 draftees
21Duke25.247.4032.64No projected 2013 draftees
22Virginia32.090.0032.09No projected 2013 draftees
23Houston31.710.0031.71No projected 2013 draftees
24Alabama27.454.1031.55No projected 2013 draftees
25Baylor27.253.9031.15Austin, Isaiah 9.08
26Florida25.995.0030.99Young, Patric 6.53
27Arkansas27.083.9030.98Young, BJ 11.67
28Texas Tech30.640.0030.64No projected 2013 draftees
29Louisville25.425.1030.52Dieng, Gorgui 9/Blackshear, Wayne 4.1
30Mississippi27.413.1030.51No projected 2013 draftees
31Pittsburgh26.533.5030.03Adams, Steven 9.28
32Colorado26.713.1029.81Roberson, Andre 9.77
33Nevada Las Vegas29.200.0029.20Moser, Mike 7.39
34Villanova25.363.7029.06No projected 2013 draftees
35North Carolina St.25.163.8028.96Brown, Lorenzo 7.48/Leslie CJ 5.33
36St. John's28.960.0028.96No projected 2013 draftees
37Syracuse23.595.2028.79Carter-Williams, Michael 4.31
38Tennessee28.450.0028.45No projected 2013 draftees
39Oklahoma St.27.950.0027.95Nash, Le'Bryan 6.93
40New Mexico27.100.0027.10No projected 2013 draftees
41Texas A&M26.910.0026.91No projected 2013 draftees
42Rutgers22.264.3026.56No projected 2013 draftees
43West Virginia26.520.0026.52No projected 2013 draftees
44Xavier26.440.0026.44No projected 2013 draftees
45Oregon State25.520.0025.52No projected 2013 draftees
46Iowa State21.663.8025.46No projected 2013 draftees
47South Florida25.260.0025.26No projected 2013 draftees
48Seton Hall24.600.0024.60No projected 2013 draftees
49Harvard24.590.0024.59No projected 2013 draftees
50Virginia Tech24.420.0024.42No projected 2013 draftees


money8869 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Theologian said...

Wisconsin-Not Ranked

Funny stuff!

gtmoBlue said...

McDermott will be a Sr in 2013-14.
and our Soph's will have improved Value Add numbers.
So where's Creighton?

stofwisbbfan said...

maybe u should take all the time you have to compile this and volunteer somewhere. It would mean alot more. Also no way mu will be in the top 10 after all the defections from the beast. I would compare the beast to conf usa ...

gtmoBlue said...

According to the numbers at the value add site, Creighton would fall in at #16 for 2014.

PV Av Rec Total
16 Creighton 35.12 2.64 37.76 No projected 2013 draftees

B said...

Um...forget leaving UMass out of the top 50, it's too much to leave them out of the top 25. Final Four NIT team this year, the core of their team was sophomores and they have some great recruits coming in this season. Derrick Gordon just transferred in from WKU and will be a sophomore in 2013-14. Watch out for UMass to make a serious run that year, if not this year.

JohnPudner said...

I am sorry I did not catch these comments earlier. I certainly have Creighton as a power this year, and yes if McDermott stays they are up here. What I probably didn't make clear enough in the explanation is that if a player is projected to go in the draft next year, I took him out. So right now they are not projected there simply under the assumption that McDermott goes pro. If not, they are right back up there with potential for a run, as you point out by sorting on the site.

JohnPudner said...

to Wisconsin fans, I do have the Badgers ranked 23rd this year, and am sure Bo will have them playing above their raw talent-level as he usually does. However, if you are thinking I'm biased against them, you should probably take a look at the first Sports Illustrated article on my system. They ran it with a picture of Jordan Taylor to note that I had to laugh at the fact that the system showed a Badger was the best offensive player in the country: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html

Torbee said...

I'm an Iowa fan and sure do see the team's upside. Top ten would make me ecstatic! From your blog to reality!

Beau D said...

Well... unfortunately... this list is garbage because there is NO WAY ON EARTH that Virginia Tech will be a Top 50 or even Top 100 basketball team next year. There is an extremely fatal flaw in your system.