"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Five Charts That Show Why Marquette Should be Better (But Isn't Yet)

First things first, these charts are using the Net Points stat, which is a measurement that looks at the offensive and defensive contributions of each player and then assigns value. For example, if Marquette wins by ten points, the stat attempts to assign credit for the win to the members of the team based on how many min they play and their offensive and defensive ratings. There are some limitations in the stat, mostly on the defensive end, because it's all based on box score stats. If a defensive contribution does not show up on the box score, it won't get captured. However, I have come back to using the stat because it generally passes the red-faced test, and I like the story it helps paint over a season. For example, the best collection of stats was Jae Crowder's senior year.

Chart #1 - Marquette is getting quality contributions this year

This chart shows the comparison of the top fifteen Net Points contributions through this mid-point of the year over the past three seasons. It's not as top heavy as previous years, but there are still plenty of quality contributions on the floor.

Chart #2 - Burton (#BANE) is contributing at the highest level over the past three years

Here's a similar comparison for only freshmen over the past three years. Most freshmen are net-neutral or negative. Even #FreeSteveTaylor was only slightly net-positive at this point. Mayo had a strong start but had already started to fade. Bane is contributing at the highest level seen and showing no signs of slowing down.

Chart #3 - There is a quality shooting guard on the roster

Here's a similar comparison of Vander from last year with Todd from this year. Todd is actually contributing at a higher overall trend than Vander did last year. Of course, if you recall all the caveats from the discussion on Net Points, the defensive contributions are not properly represented. However, there is no denying that Mayo can be very good on the court and may be close enough to Blue as a replacement.

Chart #4 - The two worst Net Points contributors are getting the most minutes

Yesterday I tweeted a version of this chart that said it was the entire season in a single chart. This shows the cumulative net points for each player against how many MPG they are receiving. The two worst net point contributors (our starting back court circled in red) are getting the most minutes. The number three and number four best contributors (circled in green) rank fifth and ninth, respectively, in terms of minutes per game.

Chart #5 - If the back court is the issue, there isn't a better PG option on the team

There's no question that the stats aren't particularly kind to Derrick Wilson. Let me first say three things. #1 - I think he's great and I'm rooting for him all the way. #2 - I don't think his defensive contributions show up well in these stats so he is under-rated. #3 - At least he has had six net-positive games. Unfortunately, the other PG option on the team is yet to be net-positive in any contribution, and has had several games where Buzz didn't yet trust him on the court.


There are two ways you can look at this. If you are a pessimist, you can regard Buzz as being obstinate in playing D. Wilson and Thomas over any of the freshmen or Mayo. However, if you're an optimist, you can say that Buzz was teaching some early season lessons and will rely more heavily on Burton and Mayo going forward. You can look at the potential improvement of the offense and see a team that might be better than it shows right now.

1 comment:

Shake mo said...

you can only truly evaluate Dawson if he had equal minutes at the point otherwise it's derelict. If given an ample chance would pleasantly surprise you for real. He can really help MU and has a true gift as a triple threat. Even the fact that youre comparing an 18 yr old who's only 6 months in the system, to a 22yr old who is 3yrs in the system is not doing Derrick a favor. Dawson was highly recruited by over 80 schools with 40 plus D-1 offers which included CREIGHTON ....ARIZONA ST .... UNM just to name a few. Feel free to contact his AAU coach Mike Clay (mclay13@yahoo.com)