"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, March 24, 2014

Some Coaching Candidates By The Numbers

I was hesitant to put this out there, because honestly, who the heck knows what is really going on with the coaching search? Speculating on current coaches isn't something I really like doing. I don't like it when other schools do it.

Having said that, I started poking around at the Pomeroy coaching profiles for the top three rumored candidates and thought it'd be useful to share. Here they are:

Rumor #1 - Shaka Smart

Shaka's overall profile is very interesting. First, for all the emphasis on "Havoc", the defensive performance has actually been inconsistent. There have been two very good defensive years and a few bad defensive years. The offensive performance has been better than I expected as well, but again it has been inconsistent.

Note that the offense and defense haven't been very good at the same time in the same year. Either the offense is really good and the defense suffers, or the defense is really good and the offense suffers. However, the overall ranking has been pretty good overall and very good the last two years. Finally, Shaka isn't really bringing in many top 100 recruits.

Summary - He's the hot name and has very good, but inconsistent offensive and defensive performance.

Rumor #2 - Ben Howland

If you are looking at someone that brings in top 100 recruits, it's Ben Howland. Using a quick scan, he has twenty eight top 100 recruits in his tenure from 2003-2013.

In addition, that stretch from 2006-2008 (or 2009) was remarkable. Three Final Fours, ranking top 15 or better four times, and consistent top 10 offensive or defensive rankings.

However, the wheels really fell off starting in 2010, not only by UCLA standards, but by Marquette's standards as well. Overall rankings were around the 50s (or worse), there was nothing very good offensively or defensively, and the NCAA performance reflected that.

Summary - Ben Howland has by far the best recruiting track record and the best overall NCAA/rankings of performance. But which Howland do we get... '06-09 or '10-13?

Rumor #3 - Gregg Marshall

I was not expecting much, if anything, about Gregg Marshall. Plus, he spells his name funny and looks like Tom Crean.

But I've got to be honest... I LOVE this guy's stat's profile. It is amazing. His Winthrop teams got better pretty much every year starting in 2004. Since taking over Wichita State, every ranking has gotten better every year (except for the 2013 offensive rank). In the last four years, Wichita State has had an average offensive ranking of 20 and an average defensive ranking of 27. This is kind of important, if you go back and reflect on recent set of posts about Final Four and Elite Eight profiles. The WSU overall ranking has been an average of 15, which is way better than Marquette over the same period.

However, there is one big concern. Marshall has recruited zero top 100 players. Can Marshall bring in the players to compete at the highest level?

Summary - Has the best overall profile for the coaches, but zero top 100 recruits


Again, I hate looking at other coaches like this, but since these are the top names, I thought it was important to put the information out there. If MU ends up with any of these guys, that's pretty fantastic.


Pam said...

With all respect to Ben Howland recruiting in sunny LA is a lot different than Milwaukee. I think the recruiting comparison that should be looked at for him is his time in Pittsburgh.

Greg Zimmerman said...

Yeah, UCLA recruits itself. Hard to tell how many of Howland's Top 100s were him, and how much of it was playing for John Wooden's school.

Oliver said...

So Smart is on the upswing, Howland is on the downswing, and Marshall is a recruiting unknown? I'll take Smart, Marshall, and Howland in that order.