"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Projections for 2016 NCAA Includes Ellenson-led MU

MUs best recruit in decades projects to land MU back in the NCAA tournament in 2016. Henry Ellenson steps on the court projected to be the 189th best Value Add player in the country even as a freshman. A look at MU’s projected roster for 2016 indicates three more players projected to be among the top 10% in the country – enough to propel MU to fourth in the Big East behind Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova (see updated google doc here).

The full database is at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but it is not updated currently. The ceiling for MU is higher due to players whose projections were held down by injuries or a lack of playing time:

2016 MU Value Add Projections
Burton, Deonte: 4.4 (268th of 4000 players)
Cheatham, Haanif: 1.41 (717th)
Cohen, Sandy: 2.28 (527th)
Dawson, John: 0.00 (with more PT should move up)
Ellenson, Henry: 4.9 (189th, or top 5%)
Ellenson, Wally: 0.00 (based on dunking at MU Madness could be better)
Fischer, Luke: 0.94 (partial season at Indiana holds him down)
Heldt, Matt: 0.30 (some ratings have higher)
Johnson, JaJuan: 2.98 (402nd misses top 10% by 2 spots)
Levin, Gabe: 1.15 (830th)
Taylor, Steve: 0.12 (season-long injury held projection down)
Wilson, Duane: 3.7 (313th)

The Big East does not project to have any top five seeds in 2016, but seven of the ten teams project to either make the tournament or be one of the next teams out.

Big East 2016 Projections 
(4 teams in, 3 more just miss on bubble)
Georgetown, BE, 6-seed
Xavier, BE, 9-seed
Villanova, BE, 9-seed
Marquette, BE, 11-seed
St. John's, BE, 4th bubble (out of NCAA)
Providence, BE, 5th bubble (out of NCAA)
Seton Hall, BE, 10th bubble (out of NCAA)
Butler, BE, out
Creighton, BE, out
DePaul, BE, out

The following are other projected seeds and next 10 teams out.

Rest of the NCAA field and 1st Ten Out
Starting with projected 1-seeds
Arizona, p12, 1-seed
Duke, ACC, 1-seed
Kansas, b12, 1-seed
Kentucky, sec, 1-seed
Connecticut, Amer, 2-seed
Florida, Amer, 2-seed
Louisville, ACC, 2-seed
North Carolina, ACC, 2-seed
Memphis, Amer, 3-seed
Michigan St., b10, 3-seed
Syracuse, ACC, 3-seed
Virginia, ACC, 3-seed
Baylor, B12, 4-seed
Indiana, B10, 4-seed
Louisiana St., SEC, 4-seed
UCLA, p12, 4-seed
Florida St., ACC, 5-seed
Maryland, B10, 5-seed
Missouri, SEC, 5-seed
Texas, B12, 5-seed
Michigan, B10, 6-seed
Nevada Las Vegas, mwc, 6-seed
North Carolina St., ACC, 6-seed
ACC, P12, 7-seed
Arkansas, SEC, 7-seed
Oregon, P12, 7-seed
Southern Methodist, Amer, 7-seed
Houston, Amer, 8-seed
Illinois, b10, 8-seed
Kansas St., B12, 8-seed
Ohio St., b10, 8-seed
Miami FL, ACC, 9-seed
Oklahoma, B12, 9-seed
Iowa St., B12, 10-seed
Purdue, B10, 10-seed
San Diego St., mwc, 10-seed
Tulsa, Amer, 10-seed
Cincinnati, Amer, 11-seed
George Washington, A10, 11-seed
Georgia, SEC, 11-seed
Gonzaga, wcc, 11-seed
Southern California, p12, 11-seed
Army, Pat, 12-seed
Georgia St., SB, 12-seed
Northwestern St., Slnd, 12-seed
Wichita St., MVC, 12-seed
Hawaii, BW, 13-seed
Hofstra, CAA, 13-seed
Siena, MAAC, 13-seed
Texas El Paso, CUSA, 13-seed
Belmont, OVC, 14-seed
High Point, BSth, 14-seed
Stony Brook, ae, 14-seed
Wisconsin Green Bay, Horz, 14-seed
Northern Illinois, MAC, 15-seed
Oral Roberts, Sum, 15-seed
Weber St., BSky, 15-seed
Yale, Ivy, 15-seed
Alabama St., SWAC, 16-seed
Chattanooga, sc, 16-seed
Chicago St., WAC, 16-seed
Howard, MEAC, 16-seed
Kennesaw St., ASun, 16-seed
Mount St. Mary's, NEC, 16-seed
Stanford, p12, 1st bubble (out of NCAA)
Nebraska, B10, 2nd bubble (out of NCAA)
Pittsburgh, ACC, 3rd bubble (out of NCAA)
Colorado, P12, 6th bubble (out of NCAA)
Alabama, SEC, 7th bubble (out of NCAA)
Auburn, sec, 8th bubble (out of NCAA)

Mississippi St., SEC, 9th bubble (out of NCAA)

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