"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Friday, February 22, 2019

Marquette 2-Seed Rooting Guide

Since the NCAA released their top-16, Marquette has solidified their hold on a 3-seed. The Golden Eagles haven't lost a game, while the teams behind them on the 4/5 lines have gone 14-14 with every team except Texas Tech taking a loss. With that in mind, it's a good time to look back at Marquette's chances to get a 2-seed. Currently in the mix for the 2-line with Marquette are Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan State, Kansas, Houston, & Purdue. So which teams can MU most likely get ahead of? Here's who we will be watching closely:

Purdue: We moved Marquette ahead of the Boilermakers after Purdue lost to Maryland. One more loss would solidify that decision, especially as Purdue was likely a bit overseeded in the Top-16 release. They host Ohio State & travel to Minnesota, their only remaining games against teams projected in the field. Marquette just needs Purdue to lose one of those.

Houston: The good news is that with Houston's schedule, it won't take much to move ahead of them. The bad news is that with Houston's schedule, there aren't many opportunities for a loss. The one to watch is their season finale at Cincinnati. Expect the Cougars to stay ahead until that point, but for at least one day, we need to root for the Bearcats.

Kansas: This is the time of year Kansas rolls to another Big 12 title, so I'm not sure they can be passed. They have a tough finish, with 3/5 on the road & 2 games in 3 days at Texas Tech & against K-State. Hope for the Jayhawks to finish at least a game back in the Big 12 & drop at least 2 games for Marquette to pass them.

Michigan State: Just as Sparty adjusted to the loss of Joshua Langford, they also lost Nick Ward. With two games against Michigan & a road rematch at Indiana, there are chances for losses. Root for a Michigan sweep as the sheer volume of losses will drop MSU a seed line.

Tennessee: A week ago, UT was second in our S-Curve, but they were largely getting by on only having one loss. Tennessee only has 4 Q1 wins, with 5 Q1 games remaining (3 on the road). They likely need to drop 3 games for MU to move ahead of them, but with their schedule it's entirely possible, starting with a road game at LSU on Saturday.

Providence & Georgetown: Two Big East teams can help Marquette by improving their NET. Their wins against St. John's & Villanova this week moved both of these teams into the top-75, but barely. Both are now Quadrant 1 road wins & Quadrant 2 home wins. A Marquette win at Providence on Saturday would not only clinch no worse than the 2-seed in the Big East Tournament, but also give them another potential Q1 victory. The rest of the league is pretty well entrenched in their position, so pull for those two teams to win more than they lose after Saturday.

Here's the S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-DUKE, 2-Virginia, 3-GONZAGA, 4-Kentucky
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan State, 7-TENNESSEE, 6-North Carolina, 5-MICHIGAN
3-Seeds: 9-Kansas, 10-HOUSTON, 11-MARQUETTE, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Iowa State, 14-Lsu, 13-Texas Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Maryland, 18-Louisville, 19-Florida State, 20-Villanova
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa, 23-Virginia Tech, 22-KANSAS STATE, 21-NEVADA
7-Seeds: 25-Mississippi State, 26-BUFFALO, 27-Cincinnati, 28-WASHINGTON
8-Seeds: 32-Baylor, 31-Texas, 30-Mississippi, 29-WOFFORD
9-Seeds: 33-St. John's, 34-Syracuse, 35-BELMONT, 36-VCU
10-Seeds: 40-Utah State, 39-Auburn, 38-Ohio State, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Minnesota, 42-Seton Hall, 43-Lipscomb, 44-Florida
12-Seeds: 50-LIBERTY, 49-Arizona State/48-Alabama, 47-Furman/46-Temple, 45-Tcu
13-Seeds: 51-NEW MEXICO STATE, 52-HOFSTRA, 53-YALE, 54-VERMONT
14-Seeds: 58-RADFORD, 57-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 56-UC IRVINE, 55-OLD DOMINION
15-Seeds: 59-MONTANA, 60-NORTHERN KENTUCKY, 61-GEORGIA STATE, 62-LOYOLA CHICAGO
16-Seeds: 68-CANISIUS/67-ST. FRANCIS (PA), 66-NORFOLK STATE/65-SAM HOUSTON STATE, 64-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, 63-BUCKNELL

Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Lipscomb, Florida, TCU
Last Four In: Temple, Furman, Alabama, Arizona State
First Four Out: NC State, UNC Greensboro, Georgetown, Clemson
Next Four Out: UCF, Nebraska, San Francisco, Indiana

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