"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, January 06, 2020

Bigs are Better?

A number of things stand out with this latest S-Curve, most notably the dominance of conferences that begin with "Big". The Big 10, Big East, and Big 12 account for 20 of the 36 at-large bids. While the Pac-12 makes a respectable showing, leagues that expect to be in the mix for the bid lead like the ACC and SEC placed a pedestrian 4 teams each.

Since this is a Big East blog, we'll start there. 80% of the teams remain in the field with Georgetown falling out after their 0-2 league start. While Butler, Marquette, and Seton Hall all moved up after respectable league starts, DePaul, St. John's, and Georgetown all went the other way. Those teams boast some nice Quadrant 1 wins, which keep them in the mix, but they can't afford losses to Providence or at home against each other if they want to remain viable.

The Big 10 boasts strength and balance. They have four teams in protected seed positions and 7/9 would be first round favorites. Further, with Illinois and Minnesota just on the outside looking in they are in position to place 10+ teams in the field if things go well. Wisconsin jumps into the mix after impressive wins at Tennessee (who crashed from the 10 line to a NIT 4-seed) and Ohio State. This is a positive for Marquette fans as that loss at Wisconsin looks better now on paper.

Finally, we have the Big 12. While 6 bids is only average by Big 12 standards, having half of those teams on the top two seed lines is incredibly impressive. The Big 12 at the moment is definitely the strongest league at the top. How good is the trio of Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia? Consider this: there are only 3 teams from high-major leagues with multiple Quadrant 1A wins and no losses outside Quadrant 1. All three are from the Big 12.

At the top of the bracket, the Big 12 stands out, with half their teams on the top two seed lines.

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BUTLER 3-DUKE 4-KANSAS
2-Seeds: 8-West Virginia 7-SAN DIEGO STATE 6-Ohio State 5-Baylor
3-Seeds: 9-AUBURN 10-Oregon 11-Penn State 12-Maryland
4-Seeds: 16-Wichita State 15-MICHIGAN STATE 14-DAYTON 13-Florida State
5-Seeds: 17-Michigan 18-Louisville 19-Villanova 20-Creighton
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa 23-Seton Hall 22-Marquette 21-ARIZONA
7-Seeds: 25-Oklahoma 26-Colorado 27-Stanford 28-Kentucky
8-Seeds: 32-St. Mary's 31-Indiana 30-Memphis 29-Arkansas
9-Seeds: 33-Wisconsin 34-Xavier 35-Texas Tech 36-HOUSTON
10-Seeds: 40-Byu 39-Oklahoma State 38-Vcu 37-LIBERTY
11-Seeds: 41-Rutgers 42-DePaul 43-Usc 44-Virginia/45-Lsu
12-Seeds: 50-FURMAN 49-LOUISIANA TECH 48-YALE 47-Washington/46-St. John's
13-Seeds: 51-VERMONT 52-AKRON 53-STEPHEN F AUSTIN 54-NEW MEXICO STATE
14-Seeds: 58-NORTHERN COLORADO 57-CHARLESTON 56-WRIGHT STATE 55-BELMONT
15-Seeds 59-UC IRVINE 60-LOYOLA CHICAGO 61-COLGATE 62-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-NORFOLK STATE/67-ROBERT MORRIS 66-PVAMU/65-WINTHROP 64-LITTLE ROCK 63-RIDER

Last Four Byes: BYU, Rutgers, DePaul, USC
Last Four In: Virginia, LSU, St. John's, Washington


NIT 1-Seeds: Georgia, NC State, Illinois, Minnesota
NIT 2-Seeds: Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Florida

Multi-bid Leagues
Big 10: 9
Big East: 8
Big 12: 6
Pac-12: 6
ACC: 4
SEC: 4
West Coast: 3
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

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