Photo by Adam Hunger | AP
This has been an insane week on the bubble. Teams like Indiana, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech are really putting the "you can't win your way in" theory to the test. Teams like Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Xavier seem eager to confirm the "you can lose your way out" theory. We have a new S-Curve this morning, with the caveat that this is all reacting to the results of the week. I also have some comments on the teams around the bubble that are still being considered. We'll start there.
Michigan, SMU, and Wyoming are the last teams we have safe. The resume metrics are all good for those teams. Michigan's Q1+2 isn't great, but they have enough Q1 wins and predictive metrics to be in, while Wyoming has a great Q1+2 record despite their weak predictives. SMU is just acceptable across the board.
In terms of last four in, Indiana benefitted from Wake and Rutgers slipping up early, while Xavier's 5 Q1 wins keep them barely in. I don't feel great about Xavier at all and they could easily still fall out. The last two in are VCU and North Texas. VCU's resume average of 31.5 would be unprecedented to leave out and despite a resume that doesn't blow you away, I still think their performance with Ace Baldwin is enough coupled with the resume for inclusion. North Texas looks stunningly similar to 2019 Belmont, who made the field. Nearly identical NET, Q1+2 records, and Q3 losses. It would certainly be in Dayton, but the Mean Green have a tourney type profile.
On the outside, Wake was eliminated on the basis of their non-conference strength of schedule, which came into focus when their early loss pushed them to play-in status. Rutgers falling in their first game puts them in a position where they simply don't have the NET to get in. For teams that are close, Oklahoma is like a worse version of Michigan in every way, so +3 in the win column doesn't do it. Notre Dame was hurt when two of their Q2 wins fell to Q3, but 4-9 against Q1+2 simply isn't good enough despite the Kentucky win. For Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Dayton, all of them warrant some consideration, but they can still play their way in. I'm continuing to reevaluate them as the games go by.
Let's get to that S-Curve:
1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-KENTUCKY 4-BAYLOR
2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-VILLANOVA 6-Auburn 5-Kansas
3-Seeds: 9-Tennessee 10-Purdue 11-Texas Tech 12-Ucla
4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Arkansas 14-Wisconsin 13-Illinois
5-Seeds: 17-HOUSTON 18-Connecticut 19-Iowa 20-St. Mary's
6-Seeds: 24-Usc 23-Alabama 22-Texas 21-Lsu
7-Seeds: 25-Ohio State 26-SAN DIEGO STATE 27-Michigan State 28-North Carolina
8-Seeds: 32-Tcu 31-MURRAY STATE 30-Seton Hall 29-Colorado State
9-Seeds: 33-Memphis 34-Iowa State 35-Creighton 36-Marquette
10-Seeds: 40-DAVIDSON 39-Boise State 38-San Francisco 37-LOYOLA CHICAGO
11-Seeds: 41-Miami 42-Michigan 43-Smu 44-Wyoming
12-Seeds: 50-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 49-UAB 48-North Texas 47-Vcu 46-Xavier 45-Indiana
13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-VERMONT 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-KENT STATE
14-Seeds: 58-DELAWARE 57-COLGATE 56-ST. PETER'S 55-PRINCETON
15-Seeds: 59-LONGWOOD 60-MONTANA STATE 61-JACKSONVILLE STATE 62-GEORGIA STATE
16-Seeds: 68-TEXAS A&M-CC 67-TEXAS SOUTHERN 66-BRYANT 65-WRIGHT STATE 64-NORFOLK STATE 63-LONG BEACH STATE
Last Four Byes: Miami, Michigan, SMU, Wyoming
Last Four In: Indiana, Xavier, VCU, North Texas
At-Large Consideration: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Dayton
Bid Thief Potential: ACC (Virginia Tech), A-10 (St. Louis, Richmond, Dayton), American (Tulane), SEC (Texas A&M)
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