Nolan Minessale Commits to Marquette

From Hilltopper to Golden Eagle, Nolan Minessale is transferring to Marquette

Photo from JSOnline.com

In the 2024 WIAA Boys High School Championship Game, Marquette University High School star Nolan Minessale led the Hilltoppers with 29 points as they beat Arrowhead 84-62 to clinch the school's first state title. After two years at St. Thomas, Minessale is going to be putting on another Marquette uniform, this time a few blocks east of the MUHS campus at Marquette. Minessale was a first team all-Summit League player after averaging 19.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 4.3 apg.

Minessale is an intriguing two-way prospect. He has good size at 6'5" but more impressively boasts a 7'0" wingspan. This gives him excellent positional versatility as he played PG, SG, SF, and PF at St. Thomas, while also sometimes jumping the tip due to his length and athleticism. At Marquette he could compete for a starting spot while giving coverage at multiple positions.

Offensively, Minessale is a high efficiency player who primarily played as a wing but looked equally comfortable in the lead guard role. St. Thomas was 9.7 adjusted points/100 possessions better on offense with Minessale on the floor. He can create shots for himself and others. Minessale thrives getting to the hoop, where he is an elite finisher who can convert above the rim while also getting to the free throw line. He's also an adept passer who can spray outside or thread the needle in pick and roll. His biggest weakness is three point accuracy, but with 42 made threes this past season he will still draw a defender out there. In terms of versatility he has some similarity to Kam Jones in that he can play on or off the ball, initiate the offense, and finish at the rim. Kam was a better shooter, Nolan is a better rebounder and gets to the line more often.

Defensively, Minessale uses his length to be disruptive and is difficult to get past. St. Thomas was a staggering 13.9 adjusted points/100 better on defense with Minessale on the floor. He's good at generating turnovers and shot blocking (5.0% block rate as a freshman). And while Summit League teams aren't known for their defense, Minessale graded out as the best defender on a top-150 defense last year.

The biggest question will be how he scales up to the Big East. At a glance, it's clear to see his efficiency dropped off against the type of competition he'll be seeing every week in the Big East. I'd say this is a minor concern. Individual efficiency is often driven by team efficiency, and mid-major teams generally tend to fare worse against Tier A+B competition because of the talent discrepancy. As long as those numbers don't drop off a cliff (30-50 points worse) I'm not as disturbed as I once was by these declines. It's also a small sample size, just 11 out of 62 games played.

Looking at this past year, that depression was largely driven by turnovers and three point percentage. But as the primary offensive option, he was still able to create shots, defend, get into the lane, finish, and get to the line. At Marquette, he won't draw the same defensive attention which should mitigate the weaknesses while allowing the positives to still thrive. As a freshman, his drop was almost exclusively due to a shooting decline in non-conference play. But as his eFG% was 40.4% in the first three of those games as a true freshman in his first month of D1 basketball and it rose to 60.0% (with all individual game efficiency ratings over 120.0), he certainly seemed to acclimate to those games as the season went on.

In terms of skillset, Minessale looks like a great fit. If he starts, his length and athleticism allow him to slot in alongside Nigel James and Adrien Stevens as a third guard or wing. His ball handling and creation essentially puts another point guard on the floor and he provides cover when one of those two goes to the bench. He's a rim/three focused offensive player as 87.1% of his shots came from the parts of the floor Marquette emphasizes.

It's worth noting how good Minessale is at what Marquette wants to do. Per Hoop Explorer he's in the 80th or better efficiency in attacking the rim, drive and kick, hitting cutters, making cuts from the perimeter, and passing in pick and roll. Those are also five of his six most frequently used play types, so it isn't just being good at what Shaka Smart wants but maximizing that. He's only average in transition but his frequency shows he is willing and able to get out and run.

We'll close with a recommendation to read an evaluation from KJ Scouting. He regards Minessale as an NBA prospect and put together a great video demonstrating what he can do on the court and why he could thrive not just in the Big East but beyond. Welcome to Marquette, Nolan.

And for those of you who are very online, a warm Marquette welcome to cousin Mia Minessale as well.