Ken Pomeroy’s Offensive Efficiency Rating (ORtg, http://www.kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=ORtg) is sometimes misunderstood as calculating the best offensive player in basketball.
As Pomeroy makes clear, this figure measures how good each player is WHEN THEY HAVE THE BALL, but the players who have the ball more often are much better than players who have a high ORtg but rarely touch the ball.
This post calculates the “Offensive Impact” of each player to reveal the Top 100 offensive players in the Big East this year.
To illustrate how it is a player’s “Offensive Impact,” (which I calculate using Pomeroy’s ORtg as well as his average possessions used and minutes played) and not the ORtg alone determine his worth to his team’s offense, let’s use three hypothetic Marquette games in 2003.
Let’s say Marquette played three games; 1) with both Wade and Diener sidelined, 2) with Diener able to fight through the injury to come in and hit a trey, and finally 3) with Wade coming back and exploding.
|Key Player Stats||Game w/o either star||Game w/ Diener for 2 min.||Game with Wade back|
|Other pts. At 1.0 per trip||66||65||44|
In the first game with both stars out, Marquette scores 66 points in 66 trips down the court, a 1.00 ORtg for the team.
In the second game, Diener tries to come back and hits a trey, but before he can do anything else, he has to sit back down with the injury. With everyone else still playing average (one point per trip) for the other 65 trips, Diener’s one trip down the court to hit the three gives MU 68 points instead of 66. Diener’s ORtg for the game is a perfect 3.0, because Marquette literally “scored 3 points every time he touched the ball,” but because that was just one time, his actual Offensive Impact is 1.03 – he increased the teams scoring by 3% from 66 to 68.
Now in a third game, Diener is still down but Wade comes back and plays all 40 minutes, exploding for 33 points with the stats shown. Wade’s ORtg is awesome at 1.49, but still less than half of Diener’s. However, his Offensive Impact is much better at 1.17 because with everyone else still playing average basketball; he increases the team’s score by 17% from 66 to 77 points. I know it seems like Wade’s 33 point performance would add more than 11 points, but in fact that is the figure because he did do some things to hurt the team (five missed shots and turnovers, two missed free throws) and some of the times he scored someone else would have if he wasn’t on the court.
To calculate exactly the percentage of points a player would have added to his team’s score if the rest of the team plays an average offensive game (1.0 points per trip without him), go to the player at www.kenpom.com and plug in the following numbers:
1. A = (100% - %Min) + (ORtg * %Poss)
2. (((A from above – 100) * (%Min * 0.01))+100)
Kyle Kuric is has the best ORtg in the Big East at 129.9. Kuric’s incredible shooting (45% of treys and 61% of 2-point shots hit to make him the 5th best shooter in the country) combine with the fact that he rarely turns the ball over. However, once you calculate that he is on the bench more than a third of the time and 85% of the time he is on the court someone else makes the play, his OFFENSIVE IMPACT rating is 102.8 – still great but 8th in the Big East.
On the other hand, Kemba Walker’s ORtg of 116.7 is the 17th best figure in the Big East and not even in the Top 100 of the country. His shooting percentages are much worse than Kuric’s (47% on twos and 33% on treys) as he faced double teams and played tired on the court 92% of the time. However, when you calculate Kemba’s ability to not only score, but be one of the best at drawing fouls and setting up teammates with assists, and the fact that Kemba is the man on an incredible 32% of all UConn trips down the court (best in the Big East, 20th in the country to 49th for the next best BE guy in Marshon Brooks), and Kemba adds more points for UConn than any other player in the Big East.
Ben Hansbrough was just behind him and a worthy MVP, and Jimmy Butler is one of five conference players within a point of each other for the top offensive player in the country.
Jae Crowder also broke the Top 10 this year. While fans realize he was one of the top shooters and rebounders in the league, Crowder also turned the ball over only 8.6% of the time, making him the third best player in the country at protecting the ball of over 4,000 players.
Darius Johnson-Odom’s early season shooting woes 34th the calculations are based on all games, not just conference play), but obviously he rated much higher in conference play en route to being picked 2nd team All-Big East.
You have to be really good to have an impact in less than 8 minutes a game, but the two best with that few minutes were Davante Gardner (45th best) and Joe Fulce (60th).
Dwight Buycks (89th), Chris Otule (96th) and Erik Williams (98th) all made the Top 100. Remember this is only the Offensive Rating so the fact that Otule was the second best shot blocker in the Big East (8.9% of opponent’s shots, just behind Terrence Jennings) are not part of the calculation. There were more than 200 players in the Big East this year, but here are the Top 100 offensively:
|Rank||Team||Name||%minutes||Off Rate||Possessions||Off IMPACT|
|2||Notre Dame||Ben Hansbrough||87.1||120.5||25||104.5|
|7||Notre Dame||Tim Abromaitis||84.2||117||21.1||103.0|
|11||John's, St.||Dwight Hardy||85.2||111.6||25.6||102.5|
|16||Notre Dame||Tyrone Nash||70.9||115.1||20.3||102.2|
|19||Notre Dame||Carleton Scott||67.9||116.5||18.1||102.0|
|21||West Virginia||Kevin Jones||87.3||110.8||19.6||101.8|
|23||West Virginia||John Flowers||74.5||112.8||16.9||101.6|
|24||West Virginia||Casey Mitchell||53.5||111||26.9||101.6|
|35||Notre Dame||Jack Cooley||25.4||129.4||17.3||101.3|
|39||John's, St.||D.J. Kennedy||69.4||109.6||16.4||101.1|
|40||West Virginia||Joe Mazzulla||72||107.8||17.6||101.0|
|43||Notre Dame||Eric Atkins||62.5||109.2||15.3||100.9|
|44||Seton Hall||Jeremy Hazell||50.8||106.5||26.2||100.9|
|47||Florida, South||Jarrid Famous||48.1||107.2||23.4||100.8|
|56||Florida, South||Shaun Noriega||40.7||109.4||18.4||100.7|
|58||John's, St.||Justin Brownlee||75.2||103.8||22.4||100.6|
|65||West Virginia||Cam Thoroughman||49.9||109.5||12||100.6|
|66||John's, St.||Paris Horne||69.8||104.9||16.4||100.6|
|68||West Virginia||Jonnie West||14.1||127.4||14.3||100.6|
|71||Louisville||Stephan Van Treese||30.9||111.9||12.3||100.5|
|74||Florida, South||Ron Anderson||55.5||103.4||19.9||100.4|
|76||Seton Hall||Jeff Robinson||78.6||102.3||19.5||100.4|
|85||John's, St.||Sean Evans||28.3||104.5||17.2||100.2|
|86||West Virginia||Darryl Bryant||64.4||101.2||25.6||100.2|
|87||West Virginia||Dalton Pepper||30||103.4||17.2||100.2|
|88||Syracuse||Baye Moussa Keita||36.2||104.5||10.1||100.2|
|92||Notre Dame||Scott Martin||73||101||18.5||100.1|
|94||Seton Hall||Patrik Auda||29.4||103||12.3||100.1|