"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, May 01, 2011

List of best 100 Offensive Players in Big East; 1, Walker; 2, Hansbrough; 5, Butler; 10, Crowder

Ken Pomeroy’s Offensive Efficiency Rating (ORtg, http://www.kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=ORtg) is sometimes misunderstood as calculating the best offensive player in basketball.

As Pomeroy makes clear, this figure measures how good each player is WHEN THEY HAVE THE BALL, but the players who have the ball more often are much better than players who have a high ORtg but rarely touch the ball.

This post calculates the “Offensive Impact” of each player to reveal the Top 100 offensive players in the Big East this year.

To illustrate how it is a player’s “Offensive Impact,” (which I calculate using Pomeroy’s ORtg as well as his average possessions used and minutes played) and not the ORtg alone determine his worth to his team’s offense, let’s use three hypothetic Marquette games in 2003.

Let’s say Marquette played three games; 1) with both Wade and Diener sidelined, 2) with Diener able to fight through the injury to come in and hit a trey, and finally 3) with Wade coming back and exploding.

Key Player StatsGame w/o either starGame w/ Diener for 2 min.Game with Wade back
Off Reb005
Player's Possessions0122
Player's Points0333
Other pts. At 1.0 per trip666544
Team Score666877
Off Efficiency1.003.001.49
Off Impact0.001.031.17

In the first game with both stars out, Marquette scores 66 points in 66 trips down the court, a 1.00 ORtg for the team.

In the second game, Diener tries to come back and hits a trey, but before he can do anything else, he has to sit back down with the injury. With everyone else still playing average (one point per trip) for the other 65 trips, Diener’s one trip down the court to hit the three gives MU 68 points instead of 66. Diener’s ORtg for the game is a perfect 3.0, because Marquette literally “scored 3 points every time he touched the ball,” but because that was just one time, his actual Offensive Impact is 1.03 – he increased the teams scoring by 3% from 66 to 68.

Now in a third game, Diener is still down but Wade comes back and plays all 40 minutes, exploding for 33 points with the stats shown. Wade’s ORtg is awesome at 1.49, but still less than half of Diener’s. However, his Offensive Impact is much better at 1.17 because with everyone else still playing average basketball; he increases the team’s score by 17% from 66 to 77 points. I know it seems like Wade’s 33 point performance would add more than 11 points, but in fact that is the figure because he did do some things to hurt the team (five missed shots and turnovers, two missed free throws) and some of the times he scored someone else would have if he wasn’t on the court.

To calculate exactly the percentage of points a player would have added to his team’s score if the rest of the team plays an average offensive game (1.0 points per trip without him), go to the player at www.kenpom.com and plug in the following numbers:


1. A = (100% - %Min) + (ORtg * %Poss)
2. (((A from above – 100) * (%Min * 0.01))+100)

Kyle Kuric is has the best ORtg in the Big East at 129.9. Kuric’s incredible shooting (45% of treys and 61% of 2-point shots hit to make him the 5th best shooter in the country) combine with the fact that he rarely turns the ball over. However, once you calculate that he is on the bench more than a third of the time and 85% of the time he is on the court someone else makes the play, his OFFENSIVE IMPACT rating is 102.8 – still great but 8th in the Big East.

On the other hand, Kemba Walker’s ORtg of 116.7 is the 17th best figure in the Big East and not even in the Top 100 of the country. His shooting percentages are much worse than Kuric’s (47% on twos and 33% on treys) as he faced double teams and played tired on the court 92% of the time. However, when you calculate Kemba’s ability to not only score, but be one of the best at drawing fouls and setting up teammates with assists, and the fact that Kemba is the man on an incredible 32% of all UConn trips down the court (best in the Big East, 20th in the country to 49th for the next best BE guy in Marshon Brooks), and Kemba adds more points for UConn than any other player in the Big East.

Ben Hansbrough was just behind him and a worthy MVP, and Jimmy Butler is one of five conference players within a point of each other for the top offensive player in the country.

Jae Crowder also broke the Top 10 this year. While fans realize he was one of the top shooters and rebounders in the league, Crowder also turned the ball over only 8.6% of the time, making him the third best player in the country at protecting the ball of over 4,000 players.

Darius Johnson-Odom’s early season shooting woes 34th the calculations are based on all games, not just conference play), but obviously he rated much higher in conference play en route to being picked 2nd team All-Big East.

You have to be really good to have an impact in less than 8 minutes a game, but the two best with that few minutes were Davante Gardner (45th best) and Joe Fulce (60th).

Dwight Buycks (89th), Chris Otule (96th) and Erik Williams (98th) all made the Top 100. Remember this is only the Offensive Rating so the fact that Otule was the second best shot blocker in the Big East (8.9% of opponent’s shots, just behind Terrence Jennings) are not part of the calculation. There were more than 200 players in the Big East this year, but here are the Top 100 offensively:

RankTeamName%minutesOff RatePossessionsOff IMPACT
1UconnKemba Walker92.4116.731.4104.8
2Notre DameBen Hansbrough87.1120.525104.5
3PittAshton Gibbs74.4127.921104.4
4ProvidenceMarshon Brooks90.9114.829.7104.0
5MarquetteJimmy Butler86.3121.221.4103.9
6GeorgetownAustin Freeman84.1116.724.5103.4
7Notre DameTim Abromaitis84.211721.1103.0
8LouisvilleKyle Kuric64.8129.914.7102.8
9VillanovaCorey Stokes72.2120.618.9102.8
10MarquetteJae Crowder68.8120.119.8102.7
11John's, St.Dwight Hardy85.2111.625.6102.5
12PittBrad Wanamaker75.7113.523.8102.4
13PittGilbert Brown69.7116.121102.4
14VillanovaCorey Fisher83.111125.7102.3
15SyracuseRick Jackson88.3112.619.8102.2
16Notre DameTyrone Nash70.9115.120.3102.2
17GeorgetownHollis Thompson57.9123.116.1102.2
18UconnJeremy Lamb68.3115.519.3102.0
19Notre DameCarleton Scott67.9116.518.1102.0
20CincinnatiDion Dixon66.8112.722.4101.9
21West VirginiaKevin Jones87.3110.819.6101.8
22UconnAlex Oriakhi71.4113.118.1101.7
23West VirginiaJohn Flowers74.5112.816.9101.6
24West VirginiaCasey Mitchell53.511126.9101.6
25RutgersJonathan Mitchell74.8108.823.9101.6
26CincinnatiSean Kilpatrick51.2112.424.2101.5
27SyracuseKris Joseph78.1108.522.6101.5
28PittDante Taylor36.4124.916.4101.5
29LouisvilleTerrence Jennings55.7112.620.3101.4
30CincinnatiYancy Gates67.2108.822.9101.4
31PittGary McGhee57.2114.915.8101.3
32RutgersGilvydas Biruta54.5110.523.4101.3
33CincinnatiRashad Bishop66.3111.717101.3
34MarquetteDarius Johnson-Odom74.7106.825.6101.3
35Notre DameJack Cooley25.4129.417.3101.3
36GeorgetownJason Clark76.1107.420.5101.2
37SyracuseBrandon Triche71.6107.521.4101.1
38RutgersJames Beatty79.4109.215.6101.1
39John's, St.D.J. Kennedy69.4109.616.4101.1
40West VirginiaJoe Mazzulla72107.817.6101.0
41GeorgetownChris Wright73.9105.225101.0
42LouisvillePreston Knowles71.810525.2100.9
43Notre DameEric Atkins62.5109.215.3100.9
44Seton HallJeremy Hazell50.8106.526.2100.9
45MarquetteDavante Gardner19.9117.923.9100.9
46VillanovaMouphtaou Yarou60.110719.7100.8
47Florida, SouthJarrid Famous48.1107.223.4100.8
48VillanovaMaalik Wayns75103.827.7100.8
49CincinnatiIbrahima Thomas47.3109.217.8100.8
50SyracuseJames Southerland28.1118.215100.8
51SyracuseScoop Jardine79.6103.924.7100.8
52ProvidenceKadeem Batts53.9107.918100.8
53CincinnatiCashmere Wright63.3105.322.3100.7
54LouisvilleGorgui Dieng31.6112.718.5100.7
55SyracuseC.J. Fair42.3109.517.6100.7
56Florida, SouthShaun Noriega40.7109.418.4100.7
57ProvidenceBilal Dixon53.9107.218100.7
58John's, St.Justin Brownlee75.2103.822.4100.6
59SyracuseDion Waiters39.3107.621.3100.6
60MarquetteJoe Fulce17.1122.116.1100.6
61VillanovaAntonio Pena81.7104.217.1100.6
62DePaulCleveland Melvin56.4103.926.4100.6
63GeorgetownNate Lubick48.9108.913.3100.6
64ProvidenceBryce Cotton36.8112.812.2100.6
65West VirginiaCam Thoroughman49.9109.512100.6
66John's, St.Paris Horne69.8104.916.4100.6
67UconnRoscoe Smith62.3106.214.4100.6
68West VirginiaJonnie West14.1127.414.3100.6
69PittTravon Woodall53.8105.119.9100.5
70DePaulJimmy Drew59.410515.3100.5
71LouisvilleStephan Van Treese30.9111.912.3100.5
72GeorgetownVee Sanford13.9119.116.7100.4
73PittNasir Robinson54.8103.521.9100.4
74Florida, SouthRon Anderson55.5103.419.9100.4
75UconnJamal Coombs-McDaniel40.710517.7100.4
76Seton HallJeff Robinson78.6102.319.5100.4
77GeorgetownJulian Vaughn57102.621.8100.3
78VillanovaJames Bell17.1114.313100.3
79LouisvillePeyton Siva68.4101.823.4100.3
80PittTalib Zanna23.4106.718.2100.3
81ProvidenceRay Hall11.8119.312.4100.3
82CincinnatiAnthony McClain11.8115.615.2100.3
83PittJJ Moore13.4107.824.6100.3
84UconnShabazz Napier58.4102.120.9100.3
85John's, St.Sean Evans28.3104.517.2100.2
86West VirginiaDarryl Bryant64.4101.225.6100.2
87West VirginiaDalton Pepper30103.417.2100.2
88SyracuseBaye Moussa Keita36.2104.510.1100.2
89MarquetteDwight Buycks68.2101.218.7100.2
90CincinnatiLarry Davis40.2102.316.2100.1
91DePaulJeremiah Kelly78.3101.314100.1
92Notre DameScott Martin7310118.5100.1
93ProvidenceDuke Mondy59101.314.9100.1
94Seton HallPatrik Auda29.410312.3100.1
95ProvidenceDre Evans15.6106.410.6100.1
96MarquetteChris Otule43.8101.316100.1
97PittLamar Patterson29.4101.616.8100.1
98MarquetteErik Williams11.3102.717.7100.1
99CincinnatiDarnell Wilks37.4100.816.7100.0
100VillanovaDominic Cheek46.9100.617.1100.0

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